environmental scan air pm final[1]...definion)aguilar)(1967),)in)his)study)of)the)informa’on)...
TRANSCRIPT
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Conduc'ng an Environmental Scan to inform Strategic Planning
Kathy Aboufadel Pamela Miller Ka'e Daniels
Presented at: Associa'on of Ins'tu'onal Research Annual Forum
Chicago, Illinois June 2, 2010
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Overview
• Defini'on and Use of Environmental Scan • Our Situa'on • Model and Scope of Scan
• Examples of Findings
• Lessons Learned
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Defini'on
Aguilar (1967), in his study of the informa'on gathering prac'ces of managers, defined scanning as the systema'c collec'on of external informa'on in order to (1) lessen the randomness of informa'on flowing into the organiza'on and (2) provide early warnings of changing external condi'ons.
Aguilar, F. (1967). Scanning the business environment. New York: Macmillan.
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Use of Scan • Ins'tu'ons that con'nually monitor and respond to dynamic market condi'ons will maintain a compe''ve advantage over ins'tu'ons that do not
• The findings of an environmental scan, combined with a comprehensive internal analysis, can be used to inform an ins'tu'on’s strategic planning and decision making processes
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Purpose • Supports Strategic Planning Process by
– Evalua'ng and drawing conclusions regarding the various sectors of the external environment impac'ng the ins'tu'on
– Iden'fying those key external forces that will either enhance the ins'tu'on’s standing or represent a threat
– Evalua'ng these key issues within the context of the university’s mission and strengths
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Background • DU’s environmental scan was conducted during the summer of 2009
• The impetus for the scan was the impending strategic planning process – A new president with great respect for using informa'on to make decisions
– An extremely 'ght 'meline for comple'ng the work (6 weeks)
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Ge]ng Started: Our Process
1. What should the scan include? 2. Who do we need on the team?
3. What are the steps necessary to complete the project?
4. What would the final deliverable look like?
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The Model (PEST +) • PEST is an analy'cal tool used to project market growth or decline – The 4 headings provide a framework for analyzing the poten'al direc'on of an organiza'on in the market being analyzed • PEST is externally focused, market based
• Comple'ng a PEST analysis is helpful prior to conduc'ng a SWOT analysis, which is based on internal as well as external factors
• SWOT is focused on a business unit or idea
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Six Environmental Sectors (PEST+)
• Environmental Sectors – Poli'cal, Legisla've & Regulatory Environment (P)
– Economic Environment (E) – Social and Demographic Environment (S) – Technological Environment (T)
– Industry Environment – Educa'onal Environment
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The Commieee
• Members – Director of Government Rela'ons – Director of Assessment – Director of Financial Aid – Director of Marke'ng – Director of Admissions – Director of Career Services
– VP of ITS – Registrars Office – Dean of School of Business – Associate Dean Technology – Director of Library Services – VP of Student Services – VP of Finance
• Project Leaders – VP Ins'tu'onal Research and Assessment – Director of Program Management
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Ge]ng the Work Done • Full Commieee met weekly
• Formed 6 subcommieees: one for each PEST + area • Ini'al mee'ng -‐ project overview and training for commieee
members
• Google Docs was used to compile and share informa'on – Outline – Sources – Themes and Trends
• Wrote Abstract for each theme to document relevant informa'on
• Final product was six Chapters plus Execu've Summary
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Project Process and Timeline Date Due Task Completed Responsibility
July 6, 2009 Determine ‘Scope of Project’ plan Commieee
July 13, 2009 Compile resource list for each area Subcommieees
July 20, 2009 Iden'fy key trends/issues in each area Subcommieees
July 27, 2009 Finish iden'fying trends; Dral abstracts
Subcommieees
August 3, 2009 Compile abstracts and dral chapters Subcommieees
August 10, 2009 Dral report and Execu've Summary Subcommieee leaders and Team leaders
August 17, 2009 Final Report to Leadership Team Team leaders
** Recommenda'ons for DU Team leaders
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Details of the Model (Scope) Poli6cal, Legisla6ve and Regulatory Environment
– State Issues • State Budget (deficits) • Financial Aid (access) • Term Limits (re-‐educate legislators)
– Na'onal Issues • Higher Educa'on Opportunity Act (transparency & accountability) • Financial Aid (complexity), Direct Loans • FERPA/HIPAA
– University and specialized accredita'on
Economic Environment – Economic slowdown/Unemployment – Increased globaliza'on – MEDC economic growth sectors
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Details of the Model Social and Demographic Environment
– Long-‐term Popula'on Projec'ons – Emerging Social Agendas
Technological Environment – Impact of current and emerging technologies on economy and educa'on system
– Trend: Social Networking – Trend: Online Educa'on
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Details of the Model Industry Environment
– Annual job openings by market area – New & emerging fields by School – Principal employers by market area – Skills required for employment
Educa6onal Environment – Compe'tors – Feeder Schools – K – 12 educa'on – Online educa'on
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Poli'cal, Legisla've and Regulatory Environment (P) -‐ Data Sources
• Michigan Commission on Higher Educa'on & Economic Growth
• Informa'on for Financial Aid Professionals (IFAP) • Michigan College Access Network
• American Assoc of Collegiate Registrars & Admissions Officers • Associa'on of Independent Colleges and Universi'es (AICUM)
• The Chronicle of Higher Educa'on • Na'onal Assoc of Independent Colleges & Universi'es (NAICU) • Veterans Administra'on
• Higher Learning Commission
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Poli'cal, Legisla've and Regulatory Environment (P) -‐ Findings
The economic recession in Michigan for the past eight years, coupled with state term limits, are having a profound impact on the State budget and investment in higher educa'on.
Un'l the na'onal and state economies stabilize, the state structural budget deficit is resolved, and policymakers view higher educa'on as an investment to prepare its workforce for the new economy, state student financial aid will con'nue to be at risk of reduc'ons and/or elimina'on.
Federal repor'ng requirements are a result of federal elected officials and cons'tuents concerns over rising college costs, campus safety, need for greater transparency, transfer of credit, gradua'on rates, accountability, accredita'on, and a number of other issues.
Increased compe''on with 4-‐year higher educa'on ins'tu'ons if community colleges offer applied baccalaureate degree programs.
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Poli'cal, Legisla've and Regulatory Environment (P) -‐ Implica'ons
• State economy will play a key role in higher educa'on public policy over the next several years; developing strategic partnerships and revenue diversifica'on is cri'cal
• Post 9-‐11 G.I. Bill has resulted in more veterans seeking higher educa'on; different support and delivery strategies are needed
• As a result of the American Gradua'on Ini'a've, Universi'es could see a shil in their revenue stream as students enroll for shorter periods of 'me; ar'cula'on agreements cri'cal
• The State has invested heavily in re-‐training displaced workers; programming must be tailored to local markets/ economic condi'ons
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Economic Environment (E) -‐ Data Sources
• Commonfund Ins'tute
• Council of Michigan Founda'ons • GuideStar Economic Survey • Michigan Economic Development Corpora'on
• Michigan Dept Labor & Economic Growth • Partnership for Philanthropic Planning • The Chronicle of Philanthropy • U.S. Census Bureau
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Economic Environment (E) -‐ Findings
As the current recession con'nues families will look to postpone aeending college and look for less inexpensive op'ons.
Most major gils are from wealth, not from income, thus opportuni'es for planned giving may exist.
It is expected that due to the economic recession and a down market, grant making will decline in 2010.
Entrepreneurial companies are the main engine of economic growth in the U.S.; they are a primary source of GDP growth; they represent the primary source of for new wealth development and they create dynamic places to live.
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Economic Environment (E) -‐ Implica'ons
• The government will likely put addi'onal pressure on schools to increase their student loan default preven'on programs
• Colleges will be challenged to adjust fundraising to counter the rising cost of tui'on, changing student demographics, increased compe''on, rising student debt, etc.
• Many higher educa'onal ins'tu'ons see the need to provide more entrepreneurial training to the state’s residents and play a cri'cal role in crea'ng a more entrepreneurially-‐oriented community
• There is a need to retrain and educate individuals for the higher paying professions and industries
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Social & Demographic Environment (S) -‐ Data Sources
• Council for Adult and Experien'al Learning • Michigan Census Bureau data
• The Na'onal Center for Public Policy and Higher Educa'on
• The Na'onal Center on Educa'on and the Economy [NCEE]
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Social & Demographic Environment (S) -‐ Findings
Michigan is growing at a slower rate than the rest of the na'on primarily because of people leaving the state.
There will be a decrease in the number of high school graduates over the next 10 years, which will mean a smaller pool of tradi'onal age students entering college.
There will be an increase in the percentage of Asians and Hispanics in Michigan. However, this increase will not be as drama'c as seen in other parts of the U.S.
Members of Gen Y are rule followers who are used to a structured environment and prefer group ac'vi'es. They need feedback on a regular basis and an opportunity to provide input into decision making.
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Social & Demographic Environment (S) -‐ Implica'ons
• The stagnant popula'on growth throughout Michigan means that Michigan ins'tu'ons of higher educa'on will not grow at t h e s am e r a t e a s c o l l e g e s i n o t h e r s t a t e s
• The con'nued growth in Western Michigan and the Northern area might bode well for Davenport campuses in these loca'ons
• Minori'es are making up a greater propor'on of high school graduates, who have historically not aeended college at the s ame r a t e s a s n o n -‐ H i s p a n i c w h i t e s t u d e n t s
• The low per capita income across the state means that many current and poten'al students will struggle to finance their e d u c a ' o n
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Technological Environment (T) -‐ Data Sources
• Educause • Horizon Report (2009) • IBISWorld
• OpenCourseWare Consor'um
• The Sloan Consor'um
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Technological Environment (T) -‐ Findings
“Learning is transforming in front of our eyes. In the coming years, it will be more authen'c, informal, collabora've, cross-‐ins'tu'onal, and on demand.” (Bonk, 2009)
“Learning is transforming in front of our eyes. In the coming years, it will be more authen'c, informal, collabora've, cross-‐ins'tu'onal, and on demand.” (Bonk, 2009)
The cost to maintain compliance with increasingly stringent privacy regula'ons will likely increase in the coming years. Cer'fying both ownership and
authorship in some of the more open ended collabora've work spaces is a significant challenge.
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Technological Environment (T) -‐ Implica'ons
• Developing new and engaging ways to connect and communicate with all audiences is a must: applica'ons for student life, student services and alumni rela'ons come to mind
• Because digital na'ves expect delivery in the means with which they're comfortable, faculty may be required to shil their teaching approaches to meet the needs of younger learners, without abandoning adult learners who are slower to adopt new technology
• To protect University resources against targeted aeacks, con'nued diligence in remaining up-‐to-‐date on technology hardware, solware, and educa'on is necessary; this level of protec'on, many 'mes, requires an increased investment into the University IT infrastructure
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Industry Environment -‐ Data Sources
• Assoc of American Colleges and Universi'es • Michigan Dept of Labor and Economic Growth
• Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
• Michigan Economic Development Corpora'on
• O*Net Resource Center • Small Business Associa'on of Michigan
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta's'cs
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Industry Environment -‐ Findings The majority of the fastest growing occupa'ons require an associate degree or higher.
Emphasis on the development of the knowledge worker will be cri'cal to the sustainability of current and future organiza'ons.
Fields with highest projected need: • Business, Mgmt & Admin (includes Accoun'ng and Finance)
• Retail • Hospitality • Health Care • Transporta'on • Educa'on
A new genera'on of companies involved in researching, designing, and data mining will require university Master’s level prepared graduates with scien'fic interdisciplinary training.
Small employers play a crucial role in all regions. Engaging in the growth and success of these employers will facilitate partnerships that lead to career opportuni'es for students.
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Industry Environment -‐ Implica'ons • Colleges and universi'es need to consider focusing a segment of
exis'ng programming on green industries to prepare students for leadership roles in these sectors; new program offerings for mission appropriate green job training should be considered
• Manufacturing (auto and non-‐auto related manufacturing) has a strong presence in all markets; the educa'on and government, and health and medical industries are also well represented among principal employers in each region
• The “Big 3” auto makers account for 39% (or 120,000) of jobs associated with the principal employers in the SE region; almost half of these jobs are aeributed to employers engaged in auto-‐related businesses, making this region the most vulnerable to the effects of the current recession and the decline of the auto industry
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Industry Environment -‐ Implica'ons • Renewable Energy Genera'on is arguably seeing the greatest
development and growth within the green economy and is at the heart of most “green” discussions
• We are seeing a no'ceable movement from manufacturers to retrofit idled auto manufacturing facili'es to take on new green manufacturing technologies; par'cularly in the energy industry
• Sixteen N&E occupa'onal 'tles, all associated with MEDC high-‐growth sectors, represent new program opportuni'es – Alterna've Energy Produc'on/Management (10), Bioinforma'cs/Informa'cs
(3), Exercise Science/ Kinesiology/ Nutri'on (1), Forensic Compu'ng (1), and Medical and Clinical Lab Technician w/ Specialty (1)
• Small employers play a crucial role in all DU regions; engaging in the growth and success of these employers will facilitate partnerships that lead to career opportuni'es for students
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Educa'on Environment -‐ Data Sources
• Educa'on Journals • Higher Learning Commission Publica'ons
• Horizon Report • Michigan Department of Educa'on
• Na'onal Center for Educa'on Sta's'cs • The Chronicle of Higher Educa'on • U.S. Department of Educa'on Publica'ons
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Educa'on Environment -‐ Findings Michigan community colleges are challenging four-‐year universi'es for the right to offer bachelor's degrees, and if they succeed, would join more than a dozen states across the country that already allow such degrees.
Over a ten year view, from 1998/99 to 2008/09, tui'on and fees increased approximately 27 to 30 percent.
State funding for higher educa'on will not grow enough to support enrollment demand without higher educa'on addressing issues of efficiency, produc'vity, transparency, and accountability clearly and successfully.
For 2008 graduates, the average composite ACT score for Michigan (19.6) is lower than the na'onal average (21.1). Michigan’s average sub score for English (18.8) is significantly lower than the na'onal average (20.6).
From 2006 to 2017, NCES projects a rise of 10 percent in enrollments of people under 25, and a rise of 27 percent for students who are 25 through 34 years old; and 8 percent for students who are 35 years old and over.
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Educa'on Environment -‐ Implica'ons
• With the increased costs and decreased revenues, ins'tu'ons will need to monitor indicators like educa'onal spending in rela'on to performance and whether resources are being used effec'vely
• Measures need to be taken to understand the rela'onship between advising, curriculum, and financial aid to reduce costs or minimally ensure that students have adequate financial resources to complete their chosen degree
• Colleges and universi'es who have historically viewed community colleges as partners may find themselves compe'ng with their lower-‐priced bachelor’s degrees
• Increased monitoring of ins'tu'onal effec'veness will require ins'tu'ons to have adequate resources to engage in these ac'vi'es, including effec've repor'ng infrastructure and skilled personnel
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Educa'on Environment -‐ Implica'ons
• Funding sources will increasingly require that ins'tu'ons clearly ar'culate how they measure success and demonstrate ac'on being taken to improve outcomes
• Students are underprepared for college-‐level coursework; in Michigan, based on NAEP and ACT scores, the greatest deficiencies are in English and Math
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Challenges/Lessons Learned • Talk to your “user” to clearly define the end product
– Clarify collec'on of external versus internal data – Make recommenda'ons, or limit to discussion of implica'ons
• Areas of overlap among scan sectors; talk to each other olen • Recognize that everyone has their own biases/lens when
examining data
• When sources conflict, agree on the defini've source • Extremely labor intensive to coordinate large groups
• Six weeks is ridiculous, unless this is all you are doing!
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Ins'tu'onalizing ES DU Future Plans
• Annual updates • Led by Ins'tu'onal Research & Assessment
• Standing cross func'onal commieee
• “Deep Dive/Full Scan” every five years to inform strategic planning
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QUESTIONS?