ERGON ENERGY - Warwick to Stanthorpe110 kV sub-transmission line proposal

Prepared for the

Community Reference Group

STANTHORPE

PRESENTED on 11TH April 2013

Presentation of the AURECON Review

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Contents

Introduction

Aurecon

Demographic Analysis

Demand Forecast

Network Limitations

Options

Conclusions

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Introduction

• In 2008, Ergon Energy completed a report recommending the establishment of a second 110 kV sub-transmission line from Warwick to Stanthorpe to augment supply to the Stanthorpe bulk supply substation (T60)

• A community reference group (CRG) was formed to provide a recommendation to Ergon on a preferred option to deliver reliability of power to Stanthorpe.

• As part of this undertaking Aurecon has been commissioned to provide an independent review the need for the second 110 kV sub-transmission line

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Aurecon capability and experience

• Aurecon has been involved in numerous electricity infrastructure projects for electricity utilities, independent power producers and independent network owners around the country,

• We understand the operation and development of electricity networks. We also have a deep understanding of the environmental and community issues involved.

• We have had significant involvement in areas such as strategic planning, project planning, concept design, reliability, protection and detailed design.

• We are a leading consulting engineering organisation in Australia for renewable energy projects, having significant involvement in major wind and solar projects

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Demographic data

Demographic data has been sourced from:-

1. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (census data)2. The Office of Economic and Statistical Research 3. Southern Downs Regional Council4. Stanthorpe Shire Council

The data considered includes:-

5. Population and housing data6. Community Profile Data7. Regional Profile Data8. Community Plans9. Economic Development Strategies10. Investment Prospectus11. Council Planning Schemes

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Demographic data

The demographic analysis indicates that:-

1. In 2011 the resident population was 10,8752. Population growth from 2006 has been approximately 1.3%3. The future population growth is expected to be between 1% and

1.5% per annum.4. Economic development is expected to grow at 1% per annum5. Employment is expected to grow at 1.2% per annum.6. Residential housing is expected to grow at 2% per annum7. Non residential floor space is expected to grow at 0.9% per

annum

The conclusion from the demographic is that electrical demand is likely to grow at between 1% and 2% per annum

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

The following will factors influence electrical demand going forward:

1. Population growth2. Economic growth3. Large new loads (major projects)4. Natural load growth5. New technology6. Distributed solar power7. Distributed electrical storage8. Electric cars9. The economic climate.

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Demand Forecast – A review of the previous 10 years

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

Natural Load Growth:

First we had lights

Then we had refrigerators

Now we have lighting, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, washing machines, toasters, ovens, TV’s, computers, …etc

This natural growth in load is estimated to be between 0.25% and 0.75% per annum.

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

New Technology

People are replacing incandescent lights with compact fluorescent lights

People are replacing old TV’s with new LCD TV’s

These trends are reducing energy and demand. This is a trend evident around the country, and has been observed for approximately 2 years. However, once saturation is reached the growth will continue based on the underlying drivers.

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

Distributed Solar PVDistributed Storage

As prices come down people will adopt solar PV installations in concert with battery storage.

This will enable battery charging either with solar energy or on off peak tariffs.

Energy will then be discharged at times of peak demand and higher cost.

The impact of this will be to reduce future loads, but this is not expected to be significant before 2025

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

Electric Cars

Electric car charging will significantly increase household energy consumption and electrical demand.

This is expected to become prevalent in urban areas within 5 to 10 years

The effect of solar PV plus storage will counterbalance this to some degree

However in rural areas where travel distances are greater, the uptake of electric cars is expected to be slower.

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Demand Forecast

Factors Affecting Electrical Demand

The economic climate:

Current economic conditions have reduced electrical demand and slowed the growth in demands

Downturns are followed by upswings, so this effect is transitory

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Demand Forecast