erie august prelim

Comprehensive Plan Discussion Notes Erie, PA - czb/MIG

DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED

FINDINGS


Medium sized American City of ~100,000


Medium sized American City of 20 sq. miles

3 mi

6+ mi


• Historic but severely compromised downtown



• National treasure in Presque Isle Park but which is accessible without meaningful passage through Erie




• Efficient commuter expressway but which separates downtown from Bayfront





• Promising regional economy but undermined by a severe urban-suburban divide





• Promising regional economy but undermined by a severe urban-suburban divide!

• Promising opportunities that must also confront a severe racial divide




• Promising opportunities that must also confront a severe racial divide!

• Poorly maintained infrastructure and unsightly entryways !







• Poorly maintained infrastructure and unsightly entryways

• Very promising Bayfront disconnected from the city’s historic core







• Poorly maintained infrastructure and unsightly entryways

• Very promising Bayfront disconnected from the city’s historic core

• Whole slew of middle income folks have one foot out the door and are county-oriented in material ways




• 45,000 housing units, and 25% (9,000) are in ridiculously terrible condition


Serious trouble and beyond recovery without radical intervention


Deeply distressed manufacturing corridor and CRITICAL TO ERIE’S FUTURE


Distressed and possibly recoverable over time, but not critical to near future of Erie


Momentarily stable, but @ risk and critical to Erie’s future


Momentarily stable, but @ risk and unquestionably critical to Erie’s future


MISSION CRITICAL AREA OF ERIE REQUIRING RADICAL RETHINKING



SEVERE DISTRESSDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE

Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED


SEVERE DISTRESSMISSION CRITICAL AREA OF ERIE REQUIRING INCENTIVE-DRIVEN REINVESTMENT


OPTION SETS


OPTION SETS

1. Address market problem (S>D) and sizing challenges together in a grand bargain

2. Primarily focus on blight eradication and excess supply and do so aggressively

3. Use existing tools, but moderately adjust them upwards in intensity and deployment manner

4. Status Quo


REGARDLESS OF WHICH OPTION OR MIX/MATCH

Now AlternativePrinciples

Resource Deployment Diffused ConcentratedPrioritization Worst First Middle Market

Metrics Outputs OutcomesPayment Other Self

Reinvestment Habit NA StrongFocus Need oriented Demand oriented

ResultsPoverty Concentrated Scattered

Socio-Economics Bottom Heavy Middle HeavyPopulation < 100,000 falling and weak < 100,000 stable

Market - $600MDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED

REGARDLESS OF WHICH OPTION OR MIX/MATCH

Give-Get

Now AlternativePrinciples

Resource Deployment Diffused ConcentratedPrioritization Worst First Middle Market

Metrics Outputs OutcomesPayment Other Self

Reinvestment Habit NA StrongFocus Need oriented Demand oriented

ResultsPoverty Concentrated Scattered

Socio-Economics Bottom Heavy Middle HeavyPopulation < 100,000 falling and weak < 100,000 stable

Market - $600MDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED

Option 1 for Erie: Address Size and Market Together


Addition of Oglethorpe System and Iconic Bayfront Redesign


Focus on Downtown, Downtown/Bayfront, & 12th/State


Bike Lanes/Trails Connecting Bayfront, Parks, Downtown


Adapting Models Used in Seattle and Philadelphia to Bayfront


Adapting Economic Models from St. Louis + Manchester UK


Creating Savannah/DC Park System


Healthy Neighborhoods Approach

Demolition, Banking, Infill + Resident Leadership Development




Implementation of Downtown Plan




Implementation of Downtown Plan

Innovation District

Connection


Option 2 for Erie: Really Focus on the Excess Supply Problem


Establishment of Central Park as Rightsizing/Stabilization Tool


Focus on Downtown w Massive Decommissioning


Focus on Downtown w Massive Decommissioning


Market Rate Infill !!!


Resizes infrastructure and housing stocks and pairs S-D goals with downtown stabilization and Bayfront connection objectives


Resizes infrastructure and housing stocks and pairs S-D goals with downtown stabilization and Bayfront connection objectives !AND STILL REQUIRES enormous sections of the city to be rethought entirely


Resizes infrastructure and housing stocks and pairs S-D goals with downtown stabilization and Bayfront connection objectives !AND STILL REQUIRES enormous sections of the city to be rethought entirely

Needs and accompanying middle market strategy for holding steady (about 10,000 HHs)


Option 3 for Erie: Modest Adjustments to Current Approaches


Focus on Image as Indirect Tool to Address Demand Problem


• Modified Code Enforcement


• Modified Code Enforcement • Modified Policing


• Modified Code Enforcement • Modified Policing • Modified Approach to Stabilizing Middle Market


• Modified Code Enforcement • Modified Policing • Modified Approach to Stabilizing Middle Market • Continue On-Going Work Downtown


• Modified Code Enforcement • Modified Policing • Modified Approach to Stabilizing Middle Market • Continue On-Going Work Downtown • Shift from W-F to Key Visibility for Infrastructure Upgrades


A blend will be needed of several aspects of several approaches but this much is clear


A blend will be needed of several aspects of several approaches but this much is clear

- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED

A blend will be need of several aspects of several approaches but this much is clear

- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown - Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED


- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown - Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront - Addressing massive blight problems



- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown - Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront - Addressing massive blight problems - Rebuilding middle market confidence



- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown - Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront - Addressing massive blight problems - Rebuilding middle market confidence - Developing economic strategies that are labor market, contextual, and place based DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED


- Erie is in a real bind and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires - Reinvesting in downtown - Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront - Addressing massive blight problems - Rebuilding middle market confidence - Developing economic strategies that are labor market, contextual, and place based - Catch up and keep up on infrastructure


Bottom Line


~ 6,600 valueless structures x $22,000 to acquire and demolish = $150M

~ 300 miles of roads and infrastructure x $500,000/mi = $150M DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE


Relocation challenge = $50-100M

Market Rate Redevelopment Challenges = $200M


Economic Development = $50-$200M $130,000/mi (avg)


Public Safety

Officers/10,000 people Annual

Erie 19.5 -17.85 $90,000 $1,606,500

Camden 40.6

37.35

Youngstown 29.4

Detroit 40.8

Pittsburgh 30.3

Buffalo 35.2

Philadelphia 47.8


Redevelopment of Bayfront - $75-$100MDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE


Bottom Line


Big Challenges


erie august prelim

Documents

use distribution

promising bayfront

eriedraft concepts

promising opportunities

presque isle park

meaningful passage

bayfrontdraft concepts

regional economy