escape from uncanny valley: the quest for vr's killer app

| Playable media & games market research

Escape from Uncanny Valley The Quest for VR’s Killer App

SVVR 2016

VR’s Killer App, SVVR 2016 | Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com

http://www.superdataresearch.com

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Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com


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| Playable media & games market research| Playable media & games market research

Stephanie Llamas @StephiNaners

Director, Research and Insights Head of VR/AR Strategy



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February 2015



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February 2015 January 2016



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For the full report, visit www.superdataresearch.com




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Report title, Month Year | Copyright © 2015 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com


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VIRTUAL REALITY INDUSTRY

LANDSCAPE




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11

$2.9B 2016E VIRTUAL REALITY REVENUE




2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

$40.3B

$22.7B

$11.8B

$5.7B$2.9B

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WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL REALITY REVENUE BY PLATFORM SUM TOTALS OF HEADSETS, PERIPHERALS AND SOFTWARE




25%

50%

75%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020E

Color TV

VCRPC

Internet

Cell phone

MAJOR U.S. TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES BY HOUSEHOLD




25%

50%

75%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020E

MAJOR U.S. TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES BY HOUSEHOLD

VR




25%

50%

75%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020E

VR

VR U.S. ADOPTION RATES BY HOUSEHOLD

5%

10%

15%

20%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E




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HTC Vive

Oculus Rift

PlayStation VR

Samsung Gear VR

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000

3.5M

2.6M

0.7M

0.4M

WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL REALITY HEADSET SHIPMENTS, 2016E



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HTC Vive

Oculus Rift

PlayStation VR

Samsung Gear VR

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000

3.5M

2.6M

0.7M

0.4M


•PRODUCTION CANNOT KEEP UP WITH DEMAND



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HTC Vive

Oculus Rift

PlayStation VR

Samsung Gear VR

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000

3.5M

2.6M

0.7M

0.4M


•PRODUCTION CANNOT KEEP UP WITH DEMAND •BACKORDER UNTIL MAY-AUGUST



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HTC Vive

Oculus Rift

PlayStation VR

Samsung Gear VR

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000

3.5M

2.6M

0.7M

0.4M


•PRODUCTION CANNOT KEEP UP WITH DEMAND •BACKORDER UNTIL MAY-AUGUST •GOOD FOR VR IN THE LONG-RUN



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VR and the Next Killer App, April 2016 | Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com

EXPERIENCE IT





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WATCH IT





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ADOPT IT





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52%AMERICANS

WITH NO INTEREST IN OR KNOWLEDGE OF

VR


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52%AMERICANS

WITH NO INTEREST IN OR KNOWLEDGE OF

VR

35-44

45-54

55-64

64+ 62%

60%

58%

55%





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AVERAGE AGE

39

EARLY ADOPTERS IN THE US



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AVERAGE AGE

39INTENT TO SPEND

$379




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AVERAGE AGE

39INTENT TO SPEND

$379INTENT TO USE

5 Days per week




$5B

$10B

$15B

$20B

$25B

2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL REALITY REVENUE BY PRODUCT SUM TOTALS OF PC, CONSOLE AND MOBILE

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SOFTWARE HARDWARE



$5B

$10B

$15B

$20B

$25B

2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

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WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL REALITY REVENUE BY PRODUCT SUM TOTALS OF PC, CONSOLE AND MOBILE

SOFTWARE HARDWARE

$12B



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TOP

VR DEVELOPMENT TOOLS



•GEAR VR •HTC VIVE

•OCULUS RIFT •PLAYSTATION VR

COST: 5% OF GROSS REVENUE IF 3,000+ PER QUARTER

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TOP


PLATFORMS:






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TOP


PLATFORMS:

COST: PAY WHAT YOU WANT; CRYTEK SELLS ITEMS IN ASSET STORE

•HTC VIVE •OCULUS RIFT •PLAYSTATION

VR

PLATFORMS:



•GEAR VR •GOOGLE

CARDBOARD •HTC VIVE

•HOLOLENS •OCULUS RIFT •PLAYSTATION VR




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TOP


PLATFORMS: PLATFORMS:

COST: $75/MONTH OR $1,500/LICENSE; FREE FOR DEVS WITH <$100K IN ANNUAL REVENUE

COST: PAY WHAT YOU WANT; CRYTEK SELLS ITEMS IN ASSET STORE

•HTC VIVE •OCULUS RIFT •PLAYSTATION

VR

PLATFORMS:



22%

78%

Other

2016E

Worldwide VR software revenue

$0.5B

Games


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SOFTWARE CATEGORIES: • PLAY • MEDIA • SOCIAL • COMMERCE • INNOVATION • EXPLORATION



Other

Social

Entertainment & Media

Games

11%

14%28%

2020E

WORLDWIDE VR SOFTWARE REVENUE

$24.2B22%

78%

Other

2016E

Worldwide VR software revenue

$0.5B

Games


36

45%



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GREAT SOFTWARE FOR VR MEANS…




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IMMERSION






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CONNECTION






40

PRESENCE






escape from uncanny valley: the quest for vr's killer app

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