esres inception report

Inception Report - Somaliland – ESRES Real Time Learning Process

Table of Contents

LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................... 1

1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ....................................................................... 2

1.A Background ................................................................................................................. 2

1.B Scope of Project ......................................................................................................... 2

1.C ESRES Real Time Learning Project ........................................................................... 3

1.C.1 What is RTL? .................................................................................................. 3

1.C.2 Project Team ................................................................................................... 3

1.C.3 ESRES Theory of Change .............................................................................. 4

1.C.4 The RTL Process ............................................................................................ 7

2 INCEPTION PERIOD ACTIVITIES ............................................................................... 8

2.A Design ......................................................................................................................... 8

2.A.1 Planning and Mobilisation ............................................................................... 8

2.A.2 Real Time Learning Launch Workshop ........................................................... 8

2.B Consolidation .............................................................................................................. 9

2.B.1 Coordination and Collaboration with ESRES Secretariat ................................. 9

2.B.2 Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................ 9

2.B.3 Real Time Learning Group ............................................................................ 10

2.B.4 ESRES RTL Validation Event........................................................................ 11

3 IMPLEMENTATION PHASE WORK PLAN ................................................................ 12

3.A The RTL Process ...................................................................................................... 12

3.B Hybrid Mini-grid Development ................................................................................. 14

3.B.1 Fieldwork: Baseline and Post-implementation Assessment ........................... 15

3.B.2 Key Informant Interviews ............................................................................... 19

3.B.3 Focus Groups Discussions ............................................................................ 19

3.B.4 Case Studies ................................................................................................. 20

3.B.5 Fieldwork Data Analysis ................................................................................ 21

3.C Technical Assistance to MoEM ................................................................................ 21

3.D Establishing Renewable Energy Fund .................................................................... 22

4 RTL DELIVERABLES ................................................................................................ 23

4.A Objectives ................................................................................................................. 23

4.B Detailed Deliverables ................................................................................................ 24

4.B.1 RTL Contributions to the ESRES Logframe................................................... 24

4.B.2 Quarterly Progress Reports ........................................................................... 24

4.B.3 Annual RTL Workshops ................................................................................ 25

4.B.4 Annual Review .............................................................................................. 25

4.B.5 RTL Final Report ........................................................................................... 25

4.B.6 Value for Money Assessment ........................................................................ 26

5 COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY .............................................................................. 28

5.A Principles .................................................................................................................. 28

5.B Audience ................................................................................................................... 28

Inception Report - Somaliland – ESRES Real Time Learning Process

5.C Content ...................................................................................................................... 30

5.D Formats ..................................................................................................................... 30

Annex 1 Updated Implementation Work plan .......................................................... 34

Annex 2 RTL Risk Matrix ........................................................................................... 38

Annex 3 ESRES Theory of Change (TOC) ................................................................ 44

Annex 4 Stakeholder Engagement Matrix ................................................................ 45

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List of Acronyms AfDB African Development Bank

DFID UK Department for International Development

EA Enumeration area

ESRES Energy Security and Resource Efficiency Programme

EPC Ethiopian Power Company

FCAS Fragile and Conflict Affected States

FGD Focus Group Discussion

HFO Heavy-fuel oil

ICF International Climate Fund

ICT Information Communications Technology

JSC Joint Steering Committee

KII Key Informant Interview

kWh Kilowatt-hour, a unit of power

MDCD Mobile data collection devices

MoEM Ministry of Energy and Minerals

MoNPD Ministry of National Planning and Development

NDP National Development Plan

PEG Partnership for Economic Growth

PIA Participatory Impact Assessment

PPA Power purchase agreement

PPD Public-Private Dialogue

PRA Participatory Rural Appraisals

RE Renewable energy

RTL Real time learning

RTLG Real Time Learning Group

SDG Sustainable Development Goals

SEA Somaliland Electricity Association

SELP Somaliland Energy Livelihoods Project

SRO Senior Responsible Owner

STTA Short-term technical assistance

TA Technical assistance

USAID United States Agency for International Development

UQ Upper Quartile

WYGI WYG International


1 Introduction and Background

1.A Background

Since declaring independence in 1991, Somaliland has succeeded in reaching a level of relative stability, which creates opportunities for socio-economic growth and development. However, the country still ranks, with the rest of Somalia, among the least-developed countries worldwide. Limited access to reliable, low-cost energy represents a major obstacle to development.

Wood and charcoal are the most widespread sources of energy in Somaliland (90%), with imported petroleum representing nearly 100% of electricity generation. Not only are these fuels polluting, but they are available only in limited quantity and cannot therefore support the future development of the economy.

Nearly three quarters of the Somaliland population, mostly in rural areas, have no access to electricity. When electricity is available, it can only be accessed at very expensive rates when available—anecdotally as much as $1.00/kWh (or even higher for fixed-price usage). This constitutes a major obstacle to both economic and social development.

Another major issue is the lack of regulation and the widespread perception that the independent power providers take advantage of the situation to increase prices while delivering poor quality services. Residents in Hargeisa have reported accidents and fires due to poor cabling systems set up by power providers at low cost. Except in Hargeisa, which underwent a massive consolidation of electricity providers in 2015, Somaliland’s antiquated electricity infrastructure is run by a decentralised network of local privately owned power providers or large companies selling off excess electricity generated in-house. In Hargeisa, before the recent consolidation, there were over 100 power providers, each serving a specific city zone with its own network generating and distributing power to end-users.1 As of January 2016, these power providers have largely been consolidated into just three: Kaah (General Electric), Alleel, and Gaafane, although the telecom companies (Telesom and Somtel) are also still involved in providing electricity service. This consolidation is likely to impact the price of electricity, although exactly how will be a function of the effectiveness of regulation. It could also lead to pooling of capital and potentially support increased investment in energy infrastructure.

Renewable energy (RE) technology constitutes a potential opportunity for power providers, but it requires heavy capital investment and access to finance remains a major constraint in Somaliland. Power providers are unlikely to move towards RE until it has proven its commercial viability. Thus, international assistance is needed to allow the sector to grow.

The political landscape in Somaliland is currently right for this assistance. The Government has demonstrated an interest in establishing a regulatory framework for the energy sector and the Electricity Energy Act (previously drafted with the assistance of USAID) and Energy Law is due to be released soon. In line with the government’s National Development Plan (NDP), this law should encourage the use of renewable energy and facilitate the extension of electricity supplies to the wider country. It is within this context that the Energy Security

and Resource Efficiency (ESRES) intervention will operate.

1.B Scope of Project

ESRES is a £20 million programme funded through the International Climate Fund (ICF) to improve access, affordability, and sustainability of electricity in Somaliland. ESRES will support innovative renewable energy and energy efficient technologies, governance approaches and business models to improve access to electricity. The key goals of the ESRES programme are:

Facilitate an enabling institutional and regulatory environment for the expansion of access to electricity in rural and peri-urban areas by the private sector or public-private partnerships.

Provide access to funding for hybrid mini-grids.

Demonstrate sustainable, climate resilient energy technology and thereby encourage the development of hybrid mini-grids by the private sector.

Lower the costs of electricity by approximately 10%, supplied among mini-grids using the new technology, allowing greater access to electricity among local communities including health centres and clinics.

1 There is effectively no transmission system. There are very few transformers, so most distribution is done at line voltages, which means that there are significant technical losses when power is distributed over larger areas.


Produce evidence that green infrastructure choices in FCAS can not only work, but also offer a more practical, sustainable, and pro-poor than non-green alternatives.

Longer-term, as outlined in the Theory of Change, ESRES will contribute to the goals of increased economic growth and poverty reduction, improved health and education outcomes; reduced C02 emissions, and increased energy security in Somaliland.

The ESRES programme has two implementing components: ESRES (now called the ESRES Secretariat) and the ESRES Real Time Learning (RTL) process. The ESRES Secretariat is implemented by Mott MacDonald, and the ESRES RTL process is implemented by Upper Quartile (UQ).

ESRES is being delivered in two stages. The Pilot Phase (Phase 1) is a 30-month period that includes this inception period (5 months for the Secretariat, 3 months for RTL). The funding for this period is £5 million. The primary goal of the RTL process is to support the successful implementation of the ESRES programme during the Pilot Phase (including both assessment and adaptation) in order to validate the pilot concept for full implementation during Phase 2, which has a budget of £15 million. A key secondary goal is to leverage additional donor funds and attract private investment to renewable energy projects in Somaliland by demonstrating the successful implementation of ESRES.

1.C ESRES Real Time Learning Project

1.C.1 What is RTL?

Real time learning (RTL) is a relatively new approach in project implementation. It is an “adaptive assessment”, which is focused on supporting a project and ensuring its successful implementation rather than evaluating ex-post what it should have done differently. RTL is particularly well-suited to a project with a Pilot Phase like the ESRES programme, where the objective is to adapt and validate the project concept while it is being implemented.

The goal of the RTL team is to coordinate and collaborate with the ESRES Secretariat to provide real-time information and support for adaptive programme implementation. The RTL process gathers information with an eye to capturing and synthesising lessons learned. These lessons are then communicated back to DFID Somalia, the ESRES Secretariat, and other key stakeholders to enable the ESRES programme to adapt and adjust throughout implementation. This is in contrast to a more traditional impact assessment, where an external evaluation team focuses on informing future projects. The RTL team is embedded with the ESRES programme and focuses on informing project implementation in “real time.”

Additionally, as noted above, as well as enabling programme adaption during Phase 1, the RTL process also aims to inform the set-up of ESRES Phase 2 and to provide evidence on the feasibility and challenges of hybrid mini-grids in Somaliland and FCAS contexts.

1.C.2 Project Team

The RTL component of ESRES is being implemented by UQ in association with WYGI, Altai Consulting and Tusmo Research. The partnership brings the following key benefits to the RTL process:

Combined experience of undertaking complex evaluations and real-time learning on behalf of DFID (through UQ) with high quality data collection and local presence in Somaliland (through Altai and Tusmo Research).

Robust project management and Duty of Care procedures (through UQ and its position within WYGI).

Specialist expertise in delivering research, evaluations and surveys in the energy sector (brought by Altai and Tusmo Research).

In-depth understanding of DFID’s quality standards in evaluation (through UQ, which is currently delivering seven evaluations on DFID’s behalf).

Strong contextual knowledge of Somaliland (offered by Altai, who are experienced operators in the country and their local partner Tusmo).

The RTL team comprises experts in the design, management, research, and evaluation of renewable energy sector programmes, with complementary skills and experience in energy economics, theory-based evaluation, qualitative and quantitative research methods, stakeholder engagement, and innovative approaches to communication and dissemination of knowledge products. The team also has extensive experience in Somaliland, established relationships with local actors, knowledge and understanding of the political economy in which ESRES is operating, and local language skills (Somali/Arabic). As illustrated in the organisation chart in figure 1 below, the project team is based primarily in Hargeisa.


1.C.3 ESRES Theory of Change

A key part of the RTL process is to validate and probe the Theory of Change (TOC) for the ESRES programme. The TOC explores the logic underpinning the ESRES programme—if an input is missed, an output unsuccessful, or assumption untrue this could jeopardise the success of the programme overall. Unlike a classical evaluation, which probes the TOC at the beginning, middle and end of a programme, the RTL process creates an information feedback loop—with knowledge generated by the RTL process feeding back into and updating the ESRES TOC, which in turn helps enable the improvement of ESRES programme implementation during Phase 1.

As the first step in this process during the inception phase, the RTL team reviewed and validated the TOC (illustrated in annex 3).2 This involved critically probing the various elements of the TOC, including implicit and explicit assumptions, inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts. This probing prompted a number of RTL research questions along with a preliminary plan for RTL engagements that will help answer the questions. These are summarised in table 1 following.

2 This was done solely as an analytical exercise. The RTL process is explicitly not a theory-based evaluation or impact assessment.

Figure 1: RTL Process Team Organisation

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Table 1: RTL Engagement in Probing the Theory of Change

RTL Questions RTL Engagement Theory of Change Element

How should the hybrid mini-grids be designed to achieve project objectives?

What factors affect the system design choices regarding prioritising number of connections or power per connection?

As part of the implementation, what is the best method for procuring the RE equipment for the hybrid mini-grids?

What factors determine when meters should be installed with the system?

Facilitate discussion on ESRES objectives.

Support Secretariat in critically analysing concept notes and proposals.

Identify potential issues with procurement process and discuss with Secretariat and DFID.

Research other mini-grid projects and identify common factors for success or failure.

Output 2: 3-5 hybrid mini-grid pilots, designed, implemented, and monitored well

What is an appropriate measure of commercial viability?

To what extent does the user mix affect commercial viability?

Facilitate discussion on appropriate measures of commercial viability.

Discuss importance of commercial viability as proposal evaluation criteria.

Research determinants of commercial viability in similar projects.

Pilots demonstrate commercial viability: Hybrid mini-grids demonstrate that they are suitable for Somaliland.

How can ESRES ensure that reducing the cost of electricity will lead to reducing the price of electricity?

What are the current costs of generation?

What is the current actual effective tariff?

Support technical assistance focused on enacting electricity law and establishing regulatory body.

Conduct baseline assessment of current electricity prices.

Hold focus groups that create community awareness of project’s intended impact on prices.

Conduct post-implementation assessment of electricity prices.

Outcome 3b: 2 independent hybrid mini-grids developed by the end of the programme that offer lower prices to consumers than diesel-only mini-grids.

What is an appropriate definition of feasibility and how can it be measured and assessed?

What would constitute robust evidence of feasibility?

To what extent is the experience in Somaliland directly transferable to other FCAS?

Facilitate discussion with DFID and other stakeholders regarding their definition and criteria for feasibility.

Design and plan all RTL activities to support the successful implementation of the ESRES pilot.

Gather, analyse, and communicate evidence of feasibility of hybrid mini-grids in Somaliland.

Outcome 5: Robust evidence provided on the feasibility and challenges of hybrid mini-grids in FCAS.

How will the hybrid mini-grids promote economic development?

What are the factors that determine the appropriate amount of capacity per connection?

Facilitate discussion regarding power required to promote economic development.

Engage community regarding planned or possible uses for additional power.

Research and communicate possible uses of power that would promote economic development.

Impact: Increased economic growth and poverty reduction in Somaliland

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RTL Questions RTL Engagement Theory of Change Element

Is it possible to estimate how hybrid mini-grids could affect CO2l emissions?

Are hybrid mini-grids a suitable mechanism for reducing CO2 from charcoal and non-commercial cooking fuels?

Collaborate with Secretariat and Ministry of Energy and Minerals to explore if the project’s short and long-term impact on CO2l emissions can be estimated.

Identify power required to cook with electricity.

Calculate cost of cooking with electricity.

Hold focus group discussions, particularly with women, regarding cultural and social factors that affect choice of cooking fuel.

Impact: CO2 emissions reduced from Somaliland

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The RTL team presented some of its preliminary analysis of these issues during the RTL validation event, and the ensuing discussions have informed this report. The RTL team will continue to pose questions and analyse relevant information throughout the RTL implementation process. Details for how the RTL process will progress are presented below.

1.C.4 The RTL Process

The RTL process is designed to take the opinions, ideas, and experiences of the diverse range of stakeholders identified during the stakeholder mapping and transform them into useful information that will probe the TOC and support the successful implementation of the ESRES programme.

The process deals with information in four steps: Seek, Gather, Analyse, and Communicate. The process is illustrated in figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Real Time Learning Process

The RTL process will seek input from as broad a range of stakeholders as reasonably possible. Consultations will help stakeholders contribute their valuable real-time input prior to any final decision or action, thus promoting empowerment and enhancing a sense of overall ownership. By pro-actively engaging with stakeholders, the project will increase the likelihood of identifying issues before they become problems and reduce the impact of any problems that do arise (symbolically represented by the red dot in the diagram).

In other words, stakeholder views should be heard at a stage where possible solutions are still fluid and not finalised. To consult stakeholders on a decision/policy that has been fully developed and agreed by one party may make other parties feel excluded or that their views have not been considered, thus making on-going and future engagement more difficult.

Throughout the inception phase the RTL team has engaged with stakeholders, consolidated and communicated their views through coordination with the ESRES Secretariat. Details on this process are laid out in section 2.B: Consolidation below.


2 Inception Period Activities The ESRES Real Time Learning project began November 2015 with a three-month inception phase. The RTL team organised and divided their activities into three sub-phases during the inception phase: Design, Consolidation, and Validation. These three sub-phases and their associated activities are illustrated in figure 3 below.

Figure 3: Inception Phase Activities

2.A Design

2.A.1 Planning and Mobilisation

The design phase began with detailed planning for deployment of the RTL team to Somaliland. This involved both technical planning and background research (detailed familiarisation of the RTL team with the local operating context, the ESRES intervention and the wider evidence base on renewable energy in FCAS) and logistical and operational planning.

The team Leader (Randall Nottingham) was responsible for the allocation of technical planning and background research tasks across the team. The UQ project manager (Kyla Reid) coordinated logistical and operational planning requirements, keeping the team leader fully informed. The mobilisation process was also facilitated and expedited by the in-country knowledge and contacts of Altai Consulting, our regional partner.

The entire senior RTL team, including the project director, project manager, team leader, and deputy team leader/research manager, met in Nairobi to coordinate initial inception activities prior to deploying to Hargeisa. The team also met with DFID Somalia to formally kick off the project and to review and discuss plans and expectations.

2.A.2 Real Time Learning Launch Workshop

The RTL team hosted a one-day Real Time Learning Launch Workshop in Hargeisa on November 11, 2015 in the Ambassador Hotel. The ESRES team, including the team leader, deputy team leader, grant and finance manager, and project manager participated in the workshop. DFID was represented by the ESRES SRO and project manager. The workshop had the following objectives:

Formally introduce the RTL team to the ESRES Secretariat.

Explain the function and purpose of the RTL process—the focus on learning the distinction between “adaptive assessment” versus evaluation.

Elaborate and refine the programme TOC, which will form the overarching framework guiding RTL activities, lines of enquiry, and analysis.

Design•Planning & mobilisation

•Inception meetings

•RTL Launch Workshop

Consolidation

•Coordination and collaboration with ESRES Secretariat

•Stakeholder engagement

•RTL Group

Validation

•RTL Validation Workshop

•Review of TOC and RTL workplan

•Inception Report


Build on the stakeholder mapping already conducted by ESRES and map the key stakeholder groups to be involved in the RTL process as providers and/or users of information.

Discuss the practical implications of the RTL process and the Secretariat’s requirements (e.g. what type and volume of information is expected, what are the different requirements across the ESRES Secretariat team, what are the appropriate/ desired mechanisms for feedback and the preferred formats for RTL knowledge products, what can the ESRES Secretariat do to support RTL, and how can the teams collaborate to ensure the successful implementation of the ESRES programme.

2.B Consolidation

As noted above, a key aspect of the RTL process is to seek input from a broad range of stakeholders. Consultations will enable stakeholders to contribute to the success of the ESRES programme while also promoting ownership. Engagement with key stakeholder increases the likelihood of issues being identified early, when solutions are still possible. It also helps ensure stakeholder voices are included in the ESRES programme, building ownership and facilitating on-going and future engagements with key individuals.

Through the inception phase the RTL team has gathered input from stakeholders to consolidate views on both the RTL proposed implementation process and the ESRES programme implementation process. Key to this consolidation was engagement with the ESRES Secretariat and the identification and engagement of other influential stakeholders. Out of this engagement has emerged the Real Time Learning Group (RTL Group). This RTLG approach, as well as the ESRES TOC and RTL implementation work plan, were presented to and validated by key stakeholders during the RTL Validation Event. The validated TOC and RTL work plan can be found in annexes 3 and 1, and the work plan is discussed in detail in section 3 below.

2.B.1 Coordination and Collaboration with ESRES Secretariat

The RTL team leader worked closely and successfully with the ESRES Secretariat team throughout the inception phase. In addition to frequent information meetings and discussions at the ESRES offices, the RTL team leader was actively engaged with the ESRES Secretariat. Key collaboration activities included:

Coordination of presentations at Joint Steering Committee meetings.

Formal observer at Selection Committee meetings throughout concept note evaluation process.

Participant in presentation of key reports to the Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MoEM) and DFID, including functional review, policy gap analysis, and technical assistance road map.

Coordinated contacts and logistics for field trip to Berbera.

Meetings with Minister, State Minister, and senior staff regarding the technical assistance plan.

Joint meetings with visiting stakeholders.

2.B.2 Stakeholder Engagement

A key step for the RTL team during the inception phase was to identify and map influential stakeholders. This activity was facilitated by the work already done by the ESRES Secretariat and the expertise of the RTL team’s local political economy expert. The RTL team looked for those stakeholders that are likely to affect or be affected by the ESRES programme, selecting them according to their role, influence and readiness to participate. The next step was to analyse their interests and incentives (notably with regards to renewable energy), their prior experiences with reforms, and how these have shaped their current positions and actions. The Stakeholder Mapping and Engagement Matrix (annex 4) summarises the stakeholder analysis conducted during the inception period.

During the implementation phase, the RTL team will need to link and cooperate with a large number of public and private stakeholders in Somaliland. By initially mapping and understanding entry points, closely aligned to the RTL communications/engagement strategy and ESRES Service Providers own stakeholder and political

Figure 4: ESRES RTL Inception Workshop


economy analysis, the RTL team will ensure that we are enabling a sound partnership on which to build and that has support and participation from all actors.

The RTL team will be in continuous contact with the main stakeholders to identify any concerns/issues, identify the best practices, and validate with stakeholders possible solutions to challenges. The continuous communication with the stakeholders is important to seek support for the implementation of the hybrid mini-grids.

Engagement with the MoEM in particular provides opportunities to disclose information and solicit feedback for the ESRES Secretariat and DFID. This will ensure accountability, effectiveness, and improvement in the quality of decision-making whilst providing a mechanism to voice opinions, concerns and make suggestion for solutions to possible challenges.

2.B.3 Real Time Learning Group

The Real Time Learning Group (RTLG) evolved out of the stakeholder mapping exercise. The RTLG was originally envisioned as a formal body of stakeholders in the ESRES programme that would meet monthly to discuss RTL issues. However, during the inception phase, the role of the RTLG has been reconsidered. DFID established the ESRES Joint Steering Committee (JSC) during the inception phase, and since the JSC is already a well-established forum for ESRES stakeholders to gather and discuss issues, and one in which the RTL team has already been an active participant during the inception phase, it would be redundant to attempt to establish a separate meeting of the same stakeholders. Adding additional monthly RTLG meetings for stakeholders could have a negative impact on engagement, leading to “meeting fatigue.” Therefore, the RTL team plans to leverage resources and use its slot on the agenda of the JSC meeting to formally update the group on RTL activities and discuss any relevant RTL issues.

One shortcoming of this approach is that the JSC is only scheduled to meet quarterly during the implementation phase (in contrast with monthly during the inception period). However, this limitation can be overcome by two inter-related adaptations: (1) Appointment of a focal point for each key stakeholder; and (2) More frequent contact between RTL team leader and each focal point. Fortunately, during the inception phase, focal points were established for each of the three key RTL stakeholders, which are identified in table 2 below.

Table 2: Real Time Learning Group Focal Points

Key Stakeholder Focal Point Title

DFID Alex Way Policy & Programme Manager

ESRES Senior Responsible Owner (SRO)

Government of Somaliland

MoEM

Abdirahman Ahmed Ismail State Minister of MoEM

ESRES Secretariat Marc Sellies Secretariat Team Leader

Also during the inception phase, the RTL team leader established at least weekly updates with all three focal points, a process that will continue during the implementation phase. Finally, DFID has requested a monthly conference call for interim updates between JSC meetings, and the RTL team leader will plan to participate in those meetings (albeit remotely when not in country).

The RTLG will also include other stakeholders that are engaged as part of the RTL process and as identified in the Stakeholder Engagement Matrix (see annex 4). Therefore, the RTLG will not be a distinct, static body, but rather an evolving group of engaged stakeholders. The key features of the RTLG are as follows:

Representatives from key stakeholders in ESRES

Focal point at DFID, ESRES Secretariat, and MoEM

Regular engagement with RTL team

Formal meeting as part of JSC

Communication of “lessons learning” through RTL quarterly report, case studies, workshops, and other deliverables

Engagement with other stakeholders as part of RTL process and as identified in Stakeholder Engagement Matrix


On-going informal collaboration to ensure successful implementation of ESRES

2.B.4 ESRES RTL Validation Event

The RTL team hosted a one-day Real Time Learning Validation Workshop in Hargeisa on January 20, 2016 in the Ambassador Hotel. The State Minister of the MoEM and the Director of Coordination and Registrar General of NGOs from the Ministry of Planning attended the workshop. The ESRES team, including the project director, team leader, deputy team leader, and grant and finance manager participated as well. DFID was represented by the ESRES SRO and project manager. Also in attendance were the ESRES logframe consultants from IBTCI. The workshop had the following objectives:

Clarify the function and purpose of the RTL process to the key stakeholders—the focus on learning the distinction between “adaptive assessment” versus evaluation.

Confirm the RTLG approach and engagement process for key stakeholders.

Validate the programme level TOC which will form the overarching framework guiding RTL activities, lines of enquiry, and analysis.

Discuss the ESRES RTL questions noted above and how to carry them forward into the implementation phase.

Discuss and confirm the RTL process, particularly ensuring that the RTL engagement probes the TOC and ESRES programme components in a way which enables the timely dissemination of key learning points in a way which facilitates programme success.

Present and discuss the RTL work plan, particularly focusing on the RTL information gathering tools to ensure they will capture the key lessons learned as well as collect robust evidence regarding the feasibility of hybrid mini-grids in Somaliland and FCAS countries.

Confirm the RTL process deliverables and timelines.

Discuss the consolidation of the RTL and ESRES programme risk matrixes.

As part of this workshop, the RTL team hosted as discussion around a number of questions arising from the TOC. This informed the RTL questions presented earlier in Table 1. The RTL team also presented some of their preliminary stakeholder analysis during the workshop for discussion, the updated version of which is available in annex 4.


3 Implementation Phase Work plan The ESRES programme has the following four components:

1. The Real Time Learning (RTL) process

2. Hybrid mini-grid development

3. Technical assistance (TA) to the MoEM

4. Establishing the renewable energy (RE) fund

A brief overview of the RTL process is presented below, and the proposed plan for how the RTL team will engage with each of the other three components to support the successful implementation of the ESRES programme is laid out in the following subsections.

A detailed work plan with activities and deliverables against a project timeline is laid out in annex 1.

3.A The RTL Process

As the RTL process is designed to provide an adaptive assessment of the ESRES programme, the RTL process implementation plan is structured around the other three ESRES programme components: TA to the MoEM; hybrid mini-grid development, and the RE fund. In addition, since the RTL approach is itself a component of the broader ESRES programme, the RTL process will also assess and adapt its own implementation to the needs and circumstances of the overall ESRES programme.

RTL team has assembled a kit of formal and informal tools for assessing the three ESRES programme components. The informal tools include meetings, discussions, research, and other soft methods of interacting with stakeholders. These methods will be used for all three components. The formal tools comprise:

1. Field based hybrid mini-grid implementation assessments

2. Key informant interviews (KIIs)

3. Focus groups discussions (FGDs)

4. Case studies

These tools will be applied primarily to supporting and assessing the hybrid mini-grid development component. Table 3 below provides a summary of the objectives, advantages, and challenges associated with each of the four formal tools.

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Table 3: RTL Information Gathering Tools

Baseline and Post-

Implementation Assessments Semi-structured Key

Informant Interviews (KIIs) Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) Case Studies

ESRES Component

Hybrid mini-grids Hybrid mini-grids

Technical assistance

Renewable energy fund

RTL implementation

Hybrid mini-grids Hybrid mini-grids

Objectives

Gather quantitative and qualitative data from a sample of the target population.

Gather personal opinions, reflections, and experiences from a knowledgeable stakeholder.

Within a project area, determine whether changes over time can be attributed to an intervention or whether they are a result of external factors

Understand the relative importance of project and non-project contributions to change over time

Map out challenges and opportunities for improving project implementation

Present in-depth analysis of story or situation that illustrates a theme or result of the project, typically a “success story”, but sometimes a cautionary tale.

Advantages

Gathers reliable data that is essential for project planning and conducting proper baseline and post-implementation analysis.

Allows project to validate and ground truth project assumptions.

End user feedback

Engages key stakeholders in process and demonstrates project’s value of their input.

Allows in-depth probing of information, opinions, and attitudes.

Discussions can target key factors determining the success of ESRES

Technical, commercial and political aspects of the energy market can be discussed

Allows community-based techniques for identifying and analysing impact (affects) of interventions

Rapidly identifies a range of potential impacts

Participatory involvement of stakeholders

Includes macro and meso (institutional) analysis i.e. considers external and organisational limitations or opportunities

Effective for capturing attribution factors of interventions from the perspective of community members

A very effective means of conveying project results, especially those that are otherwise difficult to quantify.

A compelling narrative can be communicated across a variety of platforms.

Personal stories can generate emotional investment in project.

Challenges

Requires significant investment in time and resources.

Information is highly subjective and must be validated.

Senior level interviewing, often requiring significant technical skills.

Lack of flexibility during interview.

Difficult or dangerous to administer in remote areas.

Experienced facilitator is needed

Standardises indicators for comparative assessments

Focus on consensus could mask differences

Communities may need to be physically identifiable

Require significant investment in time and effort to prepare well.

Are recognised as being anecdotal or even sensational, so difficult to use as representative or typical project result.


In addition to assessing the other ESRES programme components, the RTL team will be reflecting upon its own implementation process. Real time learning is a relatively new approach and it is only reasonable to conduct an adaptive assessment of the RTL implementation itself. This will not only allow the RTL team to adjust the RTL process effectively but also provide lessons on how to successfully implement RTL processes in other projects.

The RTL quarterly progress reports will include commentary on how the RTL component itself is adapting with the programme and how the RTL approach relates to DFID’s traditional project management framework, including developing the logframe and assessing project performance.

3.B Hybrid Mini-grid Development

The RTL team will be fully engaged with the ESRES Secretariat’s development of hybrid mini-grids. The RTL process—seeking, gathering, analysing, and communicating information—will be applied to support the development of the hybrid mini-grids. This will include engagement with the Real Time Learning Group, but the primary mechanism for supporting the hybrid mini-grid component of the programme will be through fieldwork and engagement with implementers and communities.

Fieldwork research will focus on a mix of complimentary qualitative and quantitative methodologies that seek to inform the ESRES Real Time Learning (RTL) efforts through the following key data collection methods:

1. A baseline and post-implementation assessment

2. KIIs

3. FGDs

4. Case Studies

This mix of methodologies are all inter-linked and not only gathers data but also contributes to the RTL engagement process with implementers and local communities. This is illustrated by figure 5 below.

Figure 5: RTL Engagement in Hybrid Mini-grid Development

The number and frequency of planned fieldwork engagement activities are summarised in table 4 below. Indicatively, the core team’s effort will be focused on the baseline and post-implementation assessments, KIIs

Implementer Engagement

•Identify challenges through hybrid mini-grid proposal and implementation process

•Provide feedback from baseline, community engagement, and FGDs

Community Engagement

•Identify needs, issues, concerns, and expectations

•Seek buy-in, leverage social pressure to hold power providers accountable for results

Focus Groups

•Identify and engage with key local stakeholders, confirm buy-in

•Gather feedback on expectations, experiences and changes

Baseline Assessment

•Gather information on pre-installation project sites

•Provide information to ESRES and power provider for system planning and design

Case Studies

•In-depth assessment and analysis of project-related changes

•Capture lessons learned for ESRES Phase 2

Post-Imp. Assessment

•Confirm and validate hybrid mini-grid installation

•Preliminary post-implementation assessment (min. 6 months after implementation)


and informal stakeholder engagement. The first will be the focus of the deputy team leader and fieldwork manager, with the latter two tasks falling primarily to the team leader. The core team of internationals will also be contributing to FGDs and case studies.

Table 4: Summary of Planned RTL Engagement Activities by Project Location3

RTL Engagement Activity

Hargeisa area (Maroodi Jeex / Saaxil proposed)

Other Region Total

Implementer Engagement

Number of project

sites/events

Frequency of activity

Total Numbe

r Frequency Sub-total

Key Informant Interviews*

2 2 4 4 2 8 12

Focus Group 1 2 2 - - - 2

Case Study 1 1 1 - - - 1

Community Engagement

Key Informant Interviews

2 4 8 1 2 2 10

Focus Groups/PIAs

2 4 8 1 2 2 10

Case Study 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

Baseline assessment

2 1 2 1 1 1 3

Post-Implementation

assessment 2 1 2 1 1 1 3

*Assumes that all power provider engagements occur in Hargeisa.

3.B.1 Fieldwork: Baseline and Post-implementation Assessment

The household assessment will gather baseline and post-implementation data on the following household characteristics, which are chosen for their direct relevance to ESRES implementation:

Energy equipment inventory (productive vs. non-productive assets)

Energy usage patterns

Unmet energy needs

Perception of electricity service

The baseline assessment is planned to commence in spring 2016, once the hybrid mini-grid sites are selected, and the post-implementation assessment will commence ideally within a six-month timeframe after the hybrid mini-grid systems have been installed. These timelines will be subject to review as the ESRES programme timelines are updated.

It is proposed to conduct the assessment across three project sites in and around the Hargeisa area. The RTL team proposes to engage with two sites near Hargeisa (in Maroodi Jeex or Sahil) and one site in a slightly more remote region. This selection gives both information about a breadth of settings and is consistent with the MoEM’s request for the ESRES programme to be assessed in urban, peri-urban, and rural settings. The final selection of sites will be determined in consultation with the MoEM, ESRES Secretariat, and DFID. The units of observation will be households within the targeted outreach area of the power provider. Coverage will be assessed on the basis of optimising RTL of direct relevance to ESRES implementation.

3 The RTL engagement with hybrid mini-grid projects beyond Maroodi-Jeex and Sahil will require cooperation with the ESRES Secretariat and power providers.


One ‘best able to respond’ adult household member will be selected for interviewing. The households will be selected through a purposive random sampling methodology based on the implementation plan of the power provider.4 This means that assessed households will be selected randomly within a pre-defined geographic area that covers the scope of the power provider supply grid. This area will be called the enumeration area (EA).

The assessment will randomly select households within the EA, including households that are attached to a family business, households that are already connected to a power supply line, and households that do not have any power supply at the time of the assessment.5

First the EA will be divided into segments of 3-10 households depending on the density of the household population. Segmentation will be done by creating Key Mark up Language Files (KML) using Google maps.

Ones the segmentation mapping is complete, each segment will receive a unique ID, and each household structure within the segment will also receive a unique ID. The number of randomly selected segments will depend on the required sample size of that EA. Ones the segment has been selected, the households to be interviewed within the segment will also be selected randomly.

Mobile Data Collection

One of the innovative components of the RTL approach to fieldwork will be mobile data collection. Data will be collected using Mobile Data Collection Devices (MDCD), namely Samsung Galaxy mobile phones. Household consultations will be administered using an open source mobile phone application SurveyCTO Collect. Data will be collected offline, and submitted daily to an open source online data management server, 6 which allows the Fieldwork manager to monitor and analyse data in real time.

The use of MDCDs eliminates the need for paper forms and data entry, which is both financially advantageous and environmentally friendly. Mobile data collection allows for remote monitoring of the assessment process, while GPS software on

4 It is assumed that the power provider has an implementation plan that outlines the geographic scope and number of targeted clients. The Enumeration Area will be delineated based on this plan. 5 Ideally the exact same households would be interviewed in the pre and post assessments, however, this may prove to be logistically complex. Instead, the identical purposive random sampling methodology will be applied in both assessments, and within the same geographic area, to allow for comparability. 6 Although there are other open source mobile data collection applications, it is proposed to use SurveyCTO Collect due to successful previous experience using the software

Figure 7: Mobile Data Collection Process

Figure 6: Example of an Enumeration Area with segmentation of structures


the mobile phone will allow enumerators to navigate towards an enumeration area (EA), as well as demarcate the boundaries of EA through geo-fencing technology.7 Mobile data collection also simplifies data analysis and reporting; data will be analysed by the Fieldwork Manager using the statistical software analysis programme Stata. The key benefits of the mobile data collection are:

Real time quality control and data analysis

Allows for remote monitoring of assessment process

No need for paper forms

No need for data entry

Eliminates enumerator and data entry mistakes

GPS navigation and tracking—assessment verification

Simplifies data analysis and reporting

Significantly increases assessment efficiency and reduces costs

The questionnaire will be designed and coded by the Fieldwork Manager in close collaboration with the RTL team leader, the MoEM and the service provider. Data will be collected by two enumerators per project site. Enumerators will come from the region in which the data is being collected.

Once the assessment has been completed, the Fieldwork Manager will compose shape file (vector) maps using the open source Geographic Information System (GIS) software programme called QGIS.8 The shape files will contain basic data on household characteristics described above, and will allow for a visual representation of this data with GPS location referencing.

7 It is proposed to use open source GPS navigation software called GPS Essentials 8 See QGIS for more information

Figure 8: Consultant for Tusmo collecting data using a MDCD

Figure 9: Example of vector shape file with attribute table in QGIS

http://www.gpsessentials.com/

http://www.qgis.org/en/site/


Fieldwork Team Structure

The fieldwork team will consist of the Fieldwork Manager, two Fieldwork Coordinators (one female), and six Enumerators (three female). Figure 10 shows the structure of the fieldwork team.

Figure 10: Fieldwork Team Structure

Enumerators will be selected through Tusmo networks, and will come from the areas where research is set to take place. This will serve to reduce costs related to accommodation, as well as encourage community buy-in with regards to clan dynamics.

During the inception phase, the MoEM requested that a member from the Ministry’s staff be included in the fieldwork team. This could contribute positively to the RTL goals and foster an environment for government ownership, but it may complicate the fieldwork logistics and could have potential duty of care implications for the RTL team. Therefore, the potential for and possible level of Ministry staff involvement in the RTL fieldwork is an ongoing discussion.

Fieldwork Training

The Fieldwork Manager will be responsible for training fieldwork team members on the assessment methodology. The training will last seven days including a pilot assessment to be conducted in Hargeisa9. The training will take place in Hargeisa and will cover the following components:

Objectives of the ESRES programme

Objectives of the Assessment

Assessment Methodology

Mobile Data Collection

Research Ethics

Team Structure & Roles and Responsibilities

Assessment Protocol

Security Protocol

Implementation Plan

Contractual Requirements

Frequency of Engagement

Given the probable spread of hybrid mini-grid sites which as emerged in the ESRES programme inception phase, the RTL team plans to focus the full community engagement package on the selected three project sites of focus in and around the Hargeisa area. This is consistent with the MoEM’s request that the project be assessed in an urban, peri-urban, and rural setting. It also enables the team to gather information from all

9 It is proposed to cover both the qualitative and quantitative data collection methodology in one training in order to allocate resources efficiently.


three types of sites, while balancing the duty of care concerns, costs and logistics associated with taking multi-day trips to less secure remote regions.

Additionally, the RTL team plans to engage with the power provider from every site at least twice for KIIs when they are in Hargeisa—once during the proposal development stage and once after installation is complete. The RTL team will also hold a focus group for the power providers that will meet twice and prepare a case study based on at least one implementer’s experience.

3.B.2 Key Informant Interviews

Among the major beneficiaries of ESRES are intended to be community-based institutions and facilities, particularly health care facilities (hospitals, community health clinics and outposts).

Key informant interviews (KIIs) form an important method for multiple components of the RTL community-engagement strategy. Semi-structured questions for the KIIs will be designed by the Fieldwork Manager in consultation with the MoEM and service provider. Although the KIIs will be conducted by different members of the fieldwork team, the Senior Researcher together with the Fieldwork Coordinator will take the lead conducting KIIs with community stakeholders.

Community-based Stakeholders include authority figures, key service providers and energy consumers:

District Authorities

Community Authorities (village headmen, clan elders)

Implementing Partners (Independent Power Providers)

Other Power Producers

Schools

Maternal and Child Health Clinics

Mosques

Family Businesses

The KIIs will seek to collect information on the perceptions of community-based stakeholders in order to get a deeper understanding of key expectations, concerns, needs, and expected challenges. These questions will be asked in light of objective 1 of the TOR: to assess whether ESRES hybrid mini-grids can improve access to affordable green energy for communities.

Key areas of learning to be gathered from community-based stakeholders include: the appropriateness of RE technology; the effectiveness of technical and financial assistance to MoEM and developers to establish pilot hybrid grids; and, depending on the timing of progress in developing pilot grids, the outcomes for the end users on each grid, comparing their experiences on aspects of access, affordability and reliability of supply. KIIs are a good tool for gaining feedback from numerous sources on operational, commercial and political issues relating to the prospects for success of HMGs in Somaliland.

It is proposed to conduct KIIs four times at the urban site and peri-urban site. Additionally, community-based KIIs will be conducted in the selected rural project site twice; once during the baseline phase, and once at the end of the first phase of the ESRES programme.

As noted above, in addition to the fieldwork KIIs, the RTL team will be conducting KIIs with power providers, government ministries, and other key stakeholders throughout the implementation phase.

3.B.3 Focus Groups Discussions

At the community level, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) will be conducted separately for male and female members of the community (by, respectively, male and female facilitators). Within many peri-urban and rural communities in Somaliland, members of the community organise themselves in community committees and/or local CBOs e.g. credit associations, agricultural committees, water committees, health committees, etc. These groups approached controlling for gender and rank, in order to avoid conflicts of interest during the discussions.

It is currently proposed to use a mix of Participatory Impact Assessment (PIA) methodologies in order to capture local impact indicators determined at the community-level. The suitability of this verses other approaches will be determined early in the implementation phase, during the development of the RTL fieldwork tools and once the ESRES project sites are selected.

PIAs are an extension of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs), and involve the adaptation of participatory tools combined with more conventional statistical approaches specifically to measure the impact of


humanitarian assistance and development interventions on people’s lives.10 The approach combines flexible methodology that is adaptable to local contexts, while acknowledging local people, or project beneficiaries as experts, by involving project participants and community members in assessing project effects. The approach also recognises that local people are the best able persons to identify and measure their own indicators of change.

Definitions of impact in development and/or humanitarian assistance field involve the concept of change, which can be positive or negative.

Consistent with this, a project level PIA tries to answer the following three key questions:

1. What changes have there been in the community since the start of the project?

2. Which of these changes are attributable to the project?

3. What difference have these changes made to people’s lives?

This methodology tries to understand the benefits and outcomes—both intentional and otherwise—of projects on the lives of beneficiaries. The RTL will borrow from the PIA discipline in this way but will stop short of attempting to establish impact, since this falls beyond the scope of RTL process and the timeline of the ESRES Pilot Phase.

Typically, PIAs allow a measurement of impact against qualitative indicators, such as changes in perception, status, well-being, and changes in community participation and engagement throughout the lifespan of a project. What may be useful to the RTL process is the PIAs’ use of sorting and ranking exercises enables qualitative indicators, such as perceptions and opinions, to be presented numerically. In this respect the methodology tries to find a balance between systematic methods and the richness of qualitative inquiry. This could be useful in the ESRES context, but further development and confirmation of the FGD methodology will take place as ESRES project locations emerge.

The FGDs will be held in local communities and conducted by the Senior Researcher with support from the enumerators. Where possible the Fieldwork Manager will oversee the process, however the Focus Groups need to be held in Somali to optimise the flow of information and provide a comfortable environment for participants. With permission from participants the fieldwork team will record Focus Groups using voice recorders, in order to ensure adequate data entry during the write up phase.

Additionally, the Focus Groups and proposed data collection tools will serve to create community buy-in for the ESRES programme, and should help leverage social pressure to hold power providers accountable for results. They will also help to capture complex social dynamics that are easily missed by quantitative baseline survey. As such the FGDs will provide key information on the changing needs and perceptions of assessment the community in order to inform the power provider and ESRES programme.

It is proposed to hold Focus Groups in the selected urban, peri-urban, and rural site. For the urban and peri-urban sites, it is proposed to collect data four times during the ESRES programme. For the rural site is proposed to collect data twice over the course of the programme.

3.B.4 Case Studies

The fieldwork team undertake three case studies in total: one for the implementer engagement component, and two for the community engagement component. For the former it is proposed to compile one urban case study. For the latter, it is proposed to compile two case studies (one urban and one rural). The purpose of undertaking case studies will be to generate learning material to feed back to ESRES and to provide insight into the effects of hybrid mini-grids on communities.

The information gathered through the KIIs and the Focus Groups will feed into the case studies and will compliment data gathered in the baseline and post-implementation assessment. Case studies will serve to illustrate changes in the lives of beneficiaries, institutions, and power providers at the level of the community, and explore how these changes are linked to the ESRES implementation process. In particular, the RTL team will seek to find one case study which looks at any changes to the lives of women, if possible, as this is a key issue of interest to DFID.

The case studies will bring together all the different data collection methodologies in order to provide a comprehensive overlook on the ESRES programme.

10 Andrew Catley et al. (2007): Participatory Impact Assessment, a Guide for Practitioners. Feinstein Center, Tufts University.


3.B.5 Fieldwork Data Analysis

Quantitative fieldwork data will be analysed using the statistic software package Stata, while qualitative data will be analysed and coded by the fieldwork manager using Excel. The use of MDCDs allows for daily uploading of data, which means quality checks and data analysis can occur in real time. Quantitative data will form an integral part of the baseline and post-implementation reports, consisting of univariate and bivariate analyses of household characteristics, energy usage, and perceptions.

Fieldwork data will form key part of the RTL reporting strategy to project stakeholders. Information gathered through key informant interviews will be used to update project progress, results, challenges, and risks, both informally and during the quarterly reports and annual workshops. This is one channel for project stakeholders to communicate their ideas, concerns, and experiences through the RTL process. In turn this should lead to actionable learning as findings fed back into the ESRES programme.

3.C Technical Assistance to MoEM

The ESRES Secretariat is responsible for delivering technical assistance to MoEM. Therefore, as part of their inception phase, the Secretariat prepared a detailed draft TA plan and submitted it for review to MoEM and DFID. The TA plan’s four pillars and components are summarised in figure 11 below.

As of late January 2016, this plan has yet to be accepted by the MoEM and approved by DFID. However, the RTL team leader has participated in the discussions between the Secretariat and the Ministry, and there is general agreement on the scope of the plan and the needs of the Ministry. The issues centre on the available resources and the primary mechanism for delivering the TA (i.e., international versus local experts).

This does not significantly affect the RTL approach to supporting the delivery of technical assistance to the Ministry, which is summarised as follows:

Collaborate with ESRES Secretariat and MoEM to closely align TA with ESRES goals and MoEM needs (within the constraints of the ESRES programme). This will include contributing to preparing the terms of reference for the short-term technical assistance (STTA) assignments.

Meet with MoEM TA recipients to gather real-time feedback on effectiveness of TA.

Pillar 1:

Policy and Regulatory Framework

Development

Pillar 2:

Organisational and Human Resources

Development

Pillar 3:

Domestic and External

Resources Mobilisation

Pillar 4:

Information Management and

Monitoring

1) Developing the Electrical Energy Act 1) Fine-tuning functions of Directorates and sections

1) Identifying potential external support for electricity and RE

1) Strengthening utilisation of and support to ICT

2) Establishing the Energy Regulatory Commission

2) Restructuring of (parts of) MoEM to match the work with resources

2) Aligning DP support for electricity and RE

2) Establishing digital archive and sharing

3) Developing the Regulatory Framework for the Electricity Sector

3) Strengthening management, planning and accountability

3) Mobilising DP support for electricity and RE

3) Establishing data bases on electricity and RE sectors

4) Developing the Regulatory Framework for Safety, Health and

Technical Quality

4) Establishing new positions and equipping appointees

4) Strengthening Inter-ministerial Coordination

4) Developing, monitoring and analysing the electricity and

RE Sectors

5) Updating the Energy Policy 5) Activating & strengthening regional

level

5) Strengthening cooperation with

Local Government

5) Strengthening Public Relations

and transparency

6) Developing the policy and strategy

for supporting RE/RES and hybrid mini grids

6) Strengthening Human Resources

Management systems and procedures

6) Reviving Public Private

Dialogue

6) Establishing resource centre(s)

7) Developing Medium Term strategy

and NDP

7) Introducing Human Resources

Development and arrange for training

7) Strengthening Technical and

Vocational Training

8) Improving and tightening internal

procedures

Figure 11: ESRES Proposed Technical Assistance Pillars to MoEM


Meet with local and international TA to gather real-time feedback on any issues or concerns regarding MoEM TA recipients.

Aggregate and constructively communicate findings to ESRES Secretariat and MoEM.

Propose recommendations for adapting the TA programme if necessary.

The originally proposed approach for the RTL team to support the ESRES technical assistance to MoEM was that the RTL team leader would visit the Ministry on at least a quarterly basis. In fact, given the issues surrounding the proposed technical assistance plan that arose during the inception period, the RTL team is planning to engage with the Ministry and the Secretariat on an at least weekly basis regarding the technical assistance when the team leader is in-country. At the Ministry, this will be done primarily through discussions with the State Minister, the Minister’s designated focal point for the RTL process. The RTL team leader will also meet with TA recipients both during their engagement with the STTA provider (if possible) and afterwards to assess their perceptions of the value of the technical assistance that they received.

3.D Establishing Renewable Energy Fund

The third component of the ESRES programme is establishing a renewable energy project fund. This activity is scheduled to be started by the ESRES Secretariat during the second year of the Pilot Phase implementation. It is intended to establish a sustainable mechanism by which renewable energy projects can be funded beyond the ESRES Pilot Phase.

The details of this activity have not yet been specified by the ESRES Secretariat, so the RTL team has not yet developed a formal plan to engage with the Secretariat on this component. However, in general terms, the team will follow the RTL process of collaborating with stakeholders, seeking inputs, and gathering, analysing, and communicating information. One of the RTL contributions to this activity, as already specified in the logframe, will be to prepare learning points for renewable energy fund guidelines. This activity is tentatively scheduled to start at the end of the 5th implementation quarter (April 2017). This is based on the assumption that some of the hybrid mini-grids will be completed by this date, so that their successful implementation will serve as a catalyst for generating interest and support for establishing the renewable energy fund.


4 RTL Deliverables

4.A Objectives

The information collected by the RTL team from the activities detailed above will be consolidated and presented in a variety of RTL deliverables. The purpose of these deliverables is to synthesise information into learning and present this in ways which are readily accessible and can be acted upon to improve the ESRES programme in real time. They will also provide evidence for the ESRES programme logframe and to contribute to a base of knowledge which can inform Phase 2 of the ESRES programme as wells as other renewable energy projects in Somaliland and other FCAS.

Following this inception report, the primary deliverables for the RTL process are eight quarterly progress reports. Other deliverables include two annual RTL workshops, two annual reviews, and a RTL learning points report. The planned reporting periods and deliverable schedule is illustrated in table 5 below.

Table 5: ESRES RTL Process Proposed Reporting and Deliverable Schedule

Milestone Payment

Deliverable Period Covered

Start End Report Due

Project Year

1 Inception Report November 1, 2015 January 31, 2016 January 31, 2016 Year 2

2 Quarterly Report 1 February 1, 2016 April 30, 2016 May 10, 2016 Year 2

3

Annual Review--Year 2 June 1, 2015 May 31, 2016 June 30, 2016 Year 3

Quarterly Report 2 May 1, 2016 July 31, 2016 August 10, 2016 Year 3

4 Quarterly Report 3 August 1, 2016 October 31, 2016 November 10, 2016 Year 3

5 Quarterly Report 4 November 1, 2016 January 31, 2017 February 10, 2017 Year 3

6

1st Annual RTL Workshop January 1, 2016 December 31, 2016 TBD Year 3

Quarterly Report 5 February 1, 2017 April 30, 2017 May 10, 2017 Year 3

7

Annual Review--Year 3 June 1, 2016 May 31, 2017 June 30, 2017 Year 4

Quarterly Report 6 May 1, 2017 July 31, 2017 August 10, 2017 Year 4

8 Quarterly Report 7 August 1, 2017 October 31, 2017 November 10, 2017 Year 4

9 Quarterly Report 8 November 1, 2017 January 31, 2018 February 10, 2018 Year 4

2nd Annual RTL Workshop January 1, 2017 December 31, 2017 TBD Year 4

10 RTL Final Report Implementation Phase I April 30, 2018 Year 4

* Quarterly reports are scheduled to be completed 10 days after end of each quarter. *Project Year = June 1 to May 31. *Draft annual review scheduled to be completed 30 days after end of project year. *Dates of workshops to be determined in consultation with DFID and other key stakeholders.

In addition to the formal deliverables, the RTL team leader will provide DFID with informal weekly updates of activities and progress when in-country. Also, as discussed during the RTL validation event, DFID expressed an interest in holding a monthly conference call to keep current on progress between the formal joint steering committee meetings, which will shift from monthly to quarterly during the implementation phase. The RTL team leader will participate in these meetings, either in-person whenever possible or remotely via Skype or phone.

Below follows a detailed description of specific RTL deliverables and how they may be used. These include the logframe contributions, quarterly reports, annual workshops, annual reviews, final report and Value for Money assessment.


4.B Detailed Deliverables

4.B.1 RTL Contributions to the ESRES Logframe

The ESRES RTL process deliverables feed into the milestones within the overall ESRES programme logframe. RTL process deliverables in the logframe include the 8 quarterly progress reports and the two Annual RTL Workshops.

In order to ensure that learning on topics of key interest to DFID and the ESRES programme is captured, a number of topics have been noted as needing to be covered in the quarterly progress reports over the life of the RTL process. These topics are detailed in section 4.B.2 immediately below. The RTL team will also, if possible, include a case study focusing on changes in the lives of women, which is a topic of ongoing interest to DFID.

In addition to the RTL process specific deliverables, the RTL team will contribute to additional logframe sources. This includes contributing to the creation of a methodology to validate the electricity price information provided by the Somaliland power providers and working with the ESRES Secretariat to create a Concept Note on the development of the Renewable Energy Fund.

4.B.2 Quarterly Progress Reports

The quarterly progress reports will be submitted within ten days of the end of the quarterly reporting period. The proposed content and outline of the report is as follows:

1. Executive Summary

2. Stakeholder Engagement

a. ESRES Secretariat

b. MoEM

c. Implementing Partners

d. Communities

e. Other Stakeholders

3. Engagement Outputs

a. Key Informant Interviews

b. Focus Group Discussions

c. Baseline Assessment

d. Case Studies

e. Other

4. Key Lessons Learning

a. Technical Assistance to MoEM

b. Hybrid Mini-grid Development

c. Renewable Energy Fund Establishment

d. RTL Process

5. Resource Utilisation

6. Challenges and Solutions

This structure ensures that progress on all four ESRES programme components is included in each quarterly report, as well as updates on on-going engagement activities and developing challenges. It also ensures that the information is presented in a clear and standard format quarter to quarter. The reports will be written in as generally accessible and broadly interesting a manner as possible, so that a substantial portion of the content (excluding resource utilisation and challenges and solutions) can be publically circulated and posted to the ESRES website (www.esres-somaliland.org).

As outlined in the logframe, over the course of the project, topics and issues covered in the quarterly progress reports will include lessons learned in the following areas:

Procurement Process Lessons Learned

Power Provider Lessons Learned

Technical Assistance Planning Lessons Learned

Renewable Energy Fund Operational Guidelines development Lessons Learned, and

RTL Process Lessons Learned


Additionally, as part of the fieldwork, RTL fieldwork staff will be instructed on how to gather information, photos, and quotes that will facilitate documenting and communicating the ESRES story. This will be particularly useful for case studies, which may be prepared as stand-alone documents, including any that might be packaged as a ‘success story,’ although the overall emphasis will be on objective learning.

The first quarterly progress report, to be delivered in May 2016, is planned to cover the procurement process lessons learned. It will include updates on stakeholder engagement activities in Quarter 1, including the RTL’s engagement with the ESRES Secretariat, the Ministries, and prospective power providers. In particular, report plans to cover the results of KIIs and FGDs with the prospective power providers as well as provide an update on the design of the RTL fieldwork assessment tools.

4.B.3 Annual RTL Workshops

The RTL team will host two annual workshops for the members of the Real Time Learning Group. The workshops will be held at the end of the first and second years of the ESRES implementation phase (indicatively scheduled for late January/early February, although the actual timing will be determined by DFID in consultation with key stakeholders).

The workshops will serve as a forum to review and discuss the key lessons learned during the previous year of the ESRES implementation. The workshop will also review and assess the ESRES implementation within the context of the theory of change. This will include continuing to process of probing the theory of change that the RTL team initiated during the inception phase, which involves questioning whether the project is being implemented in a manner that will achieve the stated project goals, outcomes, and (ultimately) impacts. The first annual workshop (January/February 2017) will include a focus on presenting lessons that will be helpful for DFID’s procurement process for implementation Phase 2, while the second annual workshop (January/February 2018) may well occur after the procurement process for Phase 2, so it may serve as a briefing or preparatory event prior to the transition to Phase 2.

4.B.4 Annual Review

The RTL outputs will contribute to the annual review of the ESRES programme for DFID. The RTL team will provide information and quantitative data for a review template provided by DFID, giving information on programme progress. DFID’s own internal reviewer will review this information, analysing the data and scoring progress along the programme logframe.

To facilitate this process, the RTL team leader proposes to prepare a matrix of the logframe indicator milestones and collaborate with the Secretariat team leader to develop a plan for gathering supporting evidence for each indicator.

The RTL team recognises that this is a potentially sensitive activity, since the ESRES Secretariat may misunderstand this to be an evaluation or critique on their work. However, the RTL team believes that this will not be an issue for the following reasons:

1. The RTL team leader has established a strong collaborative working relationship with the ESRES

Secretariat team leader.

2. The logframe indicators were developed and discussed extensively in joint meetings with DFID.

3. The annual review is of the entire ESRES programme, so both the ESRES Secretariat and RTL have

an equal interest in gathering valid evidence.

4. The RTL team’s contribution to the annual review will only prepare and present the evidence of

performance of the logframe’s indicator milestones. As confirmed during the inception phase, the RTL

will not propose a project rating; this will come from DFID’s internal processes.

As proposed by DFID during the RTL validation event, since the project year ends May 31, the RTL team will start preparing its contributions for the annual review in mid-April so that it can be submitted to DFID by mid-May and then fed into DFID’s internal annual review process.

4.B.5 RTL Final Report

The RTL final report is the final deliverable of the RTL process. This report will gather, consolidate, and contextualise the lessons learned during the implementation of the ESRES Pilot Phase, both from the ESRES programme and the RTL process itself.

Ideally, this report should inform DFID’s planning and procurement process for the post-pilot implementation phase. Although the procurement process for implementation Phase 2 is likely to begin well in advance of the


RTL final report, the ‘real time’ nature of the RTL exercise will have delivered a steady stream of learning messages to DFID that will inform the early design of Phase 2 and its procurement.

The RTL team will attempt to prepare an interim or preliminary key learning points report prior to the start of DFID’s procurement process for Phase 2. This report will likely be the main result from the first annual RTL workshop (as outlined above).

4.B.6 Value for Money Assessment

A value for money (VfM) assessment is not a formal separate deliverable of the project. Rather, it will be a topic and on-going theme in the project’s reporting and deliverables. The VfM assessment will be based on the Theory of Change (TOC) and will follow DFID’s 3E framework to analyse the economy, efficiency, and effectiveness of the ESRES programme. The integration of the VfM assessment and the TOC is illustrated in figure 12 below.

Figure 12: VfM Analysis Linked with Theory of Change

The VfM will follow the project’s results chain from inputs leading to outputs and outputs leading to outcomes

and impacts. Economy is the cost of providing the inputs, efficiency is the measure of the process by which

inputs become outputs, and effectiveness is a measure of the extent to which the outputs produced lead to the outcomes and impacts desired. The whole causal chain—costs leading to outcomes and impacts—is the overall cost effectiveness of the project, which represents its value for money.

As a preliminary step in the VfM assessment, the VfM expert identified indicators for each element of the TOC. These indicators are also closely aligned with the logframe, so the on-going VfM assessment will be integrated with the annual review process, which will ensure consistency and improve efficiency. The VfM metrics and proposed indicators for each TOC element are presented in table 6 following.

As noted in the TOC (annex 3), the commercial viability of the hybrid mini-grids is a necessary condition for the programme outputs to achieve their intended outcomes. Although there is no explicit VfM metric for this, commercial viability is effectively the mechanism by which programme outputs can be transferred into outcomes. It is also a key factor in determining the sustainability of the hybrid mini-grids, which will be a critical component of the VfM assessment. The sustainability of the hybrid mini-grids will determine how long the benefits (e.g., reduced diesel consumption, lower electricity prices, increased access to electricity) will be realised, which determines the lifetime benefits and impact of the project.


Table 6: Value for Money Metrics and Indicators

Theory of Change Element Description VfM Metric Indicator

Input TA to MoEM for mini-grid policies Economy Person-days of TA LOE acquired per pound

DFID grants for hybrid mini-grid pilots Economy Value of grants

Cost of generating proposals

RTL Process Economy Person-days of LOE acquired per pound

Output Development of coherent regulatory framework Efficiency Electricity law passed

Regulatory framework

3-5 hybrid mini-grid pilots designed, implemented and monitored well

Efficiency Viable proposals produced

Number of people connected to hybrid mini-grids (GBP/connection)

Renewable capacity installed (GBP/kW)

Outcome Improved enabling environment for hybrid mini-grids, with 40% of power providers licensed and operating within the new regulatory framework

Effectiveness Hybrid mini-grid capacity developed by private sector and other donors

Share of power providers licensed and operating within regulatory framework

16 hybrid mini-grids developed with anticipated cost savings

Effectiveness [This outcome is dependent on outputs from Phase 2 and therefore excluded here.]

2 independent hybrid mini-grids developed by the end of the programme that offer lower prices to consumers than diesel-only mini-grids

Effectiveness Change in price of energy in areas served by hybrid mini-grid

Calculated return on investment required to achieve price reduction

6,000 people with access to clean energy Effectiveness Number of people connected to hybrid mini-grids (GBP/connection)

Robust evidence on the feasibility and challenges of hybrid mini-grids in FCAS

Effectiveness DFID decision to proceed with Phase 2.

Private sector and donor funding for hybrid mini-grids in Somaliland and other FCAS

[Note: If evidence indicates that they are fundamentally infeasible, it will not be possible to assess how many were not built as a result of this pilot.]


5 Communications Strategy To ensure the outputs of the on-going engagement and research process all work as dynamic vectors of real-time learning rather than a static recollection of anecdotal experience, the RTL team will tie all RTL activities, tools and products into a comprehensive, outward-looking and utility-focused communication strategy. This section will outline (i) the principles of the RTL communication strategy, (ii) the audience it will address, (iii) the contents it will disseminate and (iv) the delivery formats it will use. The last sub-section will match these different components to provide a clear audience-content delivery plan.

5.A Principles

1. Objectives

The specific objectives of the RTL communication strategy are:

i. Collaborative Communication – To consolidate and feedback learning into on-going ESRES programming to improve its chances of success

ii. Reflexive Communication – To raise awareness, build common knowledge, inform programming in the renewable energy sector and in FCAS, and foster discussions among direct and indirect stakeholders

iii. Explanative Communication – To support the ESRES Secretariat in clarifying the aims, activities, processes, outputs and outcomes of the ESRES pilot, both internally and externally, to all local and international audiences interested in the programme

2. Audience

The RTL communication strategy will contribute to meeting the respective information needs of all direct and indirect, local and international stakeholders to the programme. ‘Communication circles’ will thus expand from the RTLG to direct-local stakeholders, and then progressively towards more indirect-international stakeholders. Content will be further tailored for both actively engaged and passively benefitting stakeholders.

3. Messages

The tools used by the RTL team (fieldwork assessments, KIIs, FGDs, and case studies) will generate four categories of learning:

i. Programmatic learning in direct support to ESRES programme

ii. Thematic learning to inform a wider reflection on renewable energies in FCAS

iii. Contextual learning offering a deeper analysis of the programme environment

iv. Methodological learning presenting a reflection on programming processes and the RTL methods themselves

These four categories of learning will all be presented through the RTL products delivered in the course of the programme (e.g. quarterly reports, annual reviews, workshop presentations, etc.).

4. Formats

In the course of the project, the ESRES RTL team will produce communication materials derived from the various research and engagement activities. The ESRES RTL communication strategy will make use of all formats of communication available, including internal and external reports, case studies, research notes, articles and others, which will speak to different audiences using text, images, sound-recordings and videos. To enhance communication impact, content will be as visual, jargon-free, and as efficient as possible in conveying concise, useful and practical information.

5.B Audience

The RTL Communication strategy starts with the Real Time Learning Group and aims to reach all stakeholders to the programme and beyond, using an appropriate combination of tools and products.

1. Direct and Indirect Stakeholders


For the purpose of designing this strategy, stakeholders have been categorised into direct and indirect stakeholders, depending on their level of engagement with the program, and then into local and international stakeholders, depending on nationality / constituency. Thus, stakeholders otherwise mapped out in terms of their engagement with the programme (Annex 1) are here listed starting with the Real Time Learning Group as the principal communication vehicle and progressively expanding from direct-local stakeholders to indirect-international stakeholders:

a. Real Time Learning Group:

The Real Time Learning Group (RTLG) will be the first immediate recipient of the learning generated by the RTL team. As explained in section 2.B.3 above, the group will comprise ESRES key local and international direct stakeholders, e.g. MoEM, DFID, and the ESRES Secretariat. It will also serve as a platform to reach out to other stakeholders who may be engaged with the ESRES programme at any given point of the pilot phase.

b. Direct Local Stakeholders:

i. Somaliland administrative and government bodies, including the yet to be established Somaliland Energy Commission, the MoEM and the local government agencies

ii. Somaliland IPPs and private sector actors, including the prospective independent power providers and incumbent generators, local equipment suppliers and installers involved in the hybrid mini-grid installation

iii. Somaliland constituencies and communities, including households, public and private establishments, farmers and pastoral herders directly benefiting from the ESRES programme

c. Direct International Stakeholders:

i. Donors – DFID is currently the only donor agency with a direct stake in the programme but others could later participate more actively in the ESRES programme. This could take place via the RE Fund

ii. Service Providers – The ESRES Secretariat will be the first immediate counterpart to the RTL team and will be engaged in on-going communication with the RTL team leader

d. Indirect Local Stakeholders:

i. Somaliland administrative and government bodies, e.g. the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the Ministry of Public Works, Housing and Transportation, the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Presidency, and the local water agencies

ii. Somaliland power providers and private sector actors, such as power providers and incumbent generators, local equipment suppliers and installers, petroleum/LPG suppliers, telecommunication companies and others who will not be involved in implementation but work in the same sector or in a related one.

iii. Somaliland constituencies and communities, such as households, public and private establishments, farmers and pastoral herders who are not directly benefiting from the programme but may learn about the programme activities

e. Indirect International Stakeholders:

i. Donors and multilateral agencies; the European Commission, USAID, the World Bank, the IFC, the African Development Bank are all engaged in the energy sector and in developing renewable energy solutions in Somaliland

ii. Service Providers; DAI UK, Engility, and other service providers who are involved in the implementation of activities funded by donors and multilateral agencies looking at developing renewable energy solutions in Somaliland

iii. INGOs and others, including Somaliland Fair Fishing, Shuraako, and others who implement related programmes with the MoEM


2. Passive and Active Stakeholders

Within each audience group, some elements may actively contribute to the implementation of the programme or of similar programmes, and therefore may be interested in more technical, practical, or operational contents. Others may passively benefit from the activities and the outputs of the pilot phase without necessarily having much interest in understanding what the programme is trying to achieve. In-between, a wide spectrum of attitudes is envisaged, ranging from fully engaged implementing partners to remote observers, with actors possibly shifting from one attitude to another at any point over the course of the programme.

Therefore, it is important to speak to all potential stakeholders and increase the active participation in the programme and the learning process that supports it. To this end, the RTL communication strategy will produce content which has direct operational value to the most engaged stakeholders, in line with the objective of collaborative communication specified above, but also content that will inform any party interested in learning more about the programme and requiring a fact-based explanative approach, for example through FGDs and reports posted on the ESRES website.

5.C Content

The RTL tools (fieldwork assessments, KIIs, FGDs, and case studies) will be used to generate raw content that will then be analysed to produce findings, conclusions and recommendations for target audiences.

As shown in table 3, these tools are sequenced to generate deeper and deeper content on the socio-economic, and political aspects of the programme and its impacts on beneficiaries. Engagement in the hybrid mini-grid development process will start with the implementers, and then entering the community through KIIs with local leaders, before progressively deepening the research into select case studies to understand the how the programme operates in the complex implementation environment.

The RTL tools will generate content and will continue to refine it through iterative discussions. The on-going engagement of the Team Leader in Hargeisa will also generate content through iterative discussions with a multiplicity of actors. As mentioned above, it is expected that these tools produce four categories of learning content:

i. Programmatic learning in direct support to ESRES programme, with a particular focus on the following areas: procurement, implementing partner selection/engagement, technical assistance planning and provision, developing renewable energy fund guidelines, and the RTL process itself

ii. Thematic learning will be derived from the programme to inform a wider reflection on renewable energies in fragile and conflict affected states, with a particular focus on key questions related to the TOC, including best practices for procurement, lessons around contracting and working with local power providers, technical assistance best practices, points of consideration when developing RE funds, and value for money

iii. Contextual learning will offer a deeper analysis of the program environment, e.g. at the macro-level through an on-going analysis of the legal framework, geographic features of Somaliland, etc. – and, at the micro-level through socio-demographic characteristics of population of interests, energy equipment inventories and energy usage patterns, but also knowledge and attitude towards RE technology and local political economy of energy assets ownership, access, operations and maintenance

iv. Methodological learning presenting a reflection on programming processes and the RTL methods themselves, for instance looking into the success factors of the RTL process, the coherence of the RTL process with DFID’s traditional management framework, and the programmatic value of the RTL compared to traditional evaluations

5.D Formats

As described in section 3.E above, the primary deliverables for the RTL project are eight quarterly progress reports, two annual RTL workshops, two annual reviews, and a RTL final report. These RTL products will be the formal vehicles to disseminate the learning contents generated through the RTL tools and to ensure these contents are appropriately communicated to the relevant audience.

To enhance communication impact, content will be as visual, jargon-free, and as efficient as possible in conveying concise, useful and practical information. For instance, the RTL team will consider the appropriateness of using mobile data collection technologies to produce pictures, sound recordings and videos of direct beneficiaries discussing the ESRES program and relating stories of how they use energies and how ESRES changes their daily lives. Different types of materials will be disseminated to various audiences, with


programmatic and methodological learning calling for more internal facing and technical content, while thematic and contextual learning will be more open and designed to be immediately shared with external audiences. As such, while some materials will be shared by e-mail on a personal basis, others will be uploaded on the ESRES website and offered for anyone to download and use.

For instance, as described throughout the report:

Beyond on-going communication with the RTLG and the main stakeholders engaged in the program, communication materials will serve as reference documents for internal and external communication purposes. These includes meeting notes, quarterly reports, power point slide-decks, and contributions to the ESRES website content.

In addition, key informant interviews, focus groups discussions, case studies, micro-surveys for the baseline and end-line assessments will also be turned into short visual notes that can be shared across audiences to raise awareness amongst the public and foster further discussions among direct stakeholders.

Case studies will be published as stand-alone documents, and then as annexes to the quarterly report when relevant, to provide stakeholders with a deeper and more concrete understanding of the multitude of dynamics that affect the outcomes of the program on the ground and should be taken into consideration by implementing partners.

Also, concept notes on themes of interest will be published, some of them jointly with the ESRES Service Provider, to crystallise learning and progressively build knowledge across the different key aspects of the program. The RTL team has committed to produce eight thematic analysis pieces that will be turned into visual documents for broader consumption.

Table 7 below provides a summary audience-content delivery plan of how the different stakeholders will be engaged in the RTL through the communication of specific contents presented in appropriate formats. A more detailed Stakeholder Engagement Matrix is available in annex 4.


Table 7: Summary audience-content delivery plan

Stakeholder Engagement Frequency

ESRES Secretariat • Informal Meetings w/ TL, Staff, and STTA • Weekly Staff Meetings • Quarterly Report • Quarterly JSC • Field assessment • KIIs • Case Studies • Annual Review • Annual Workshop

Daily (TL In-Country)

Periodic

Ministry of Energy & Minerals

• Designated Focal Point • Quarterly Report • Quarterly JSC • KIIs • Case Studies • Annual Workshop

Weekly (TL In-Country)

DFID • Weekly Updates • Quarterly Report • Quarterly JSC • Case Studies • Annual Review • Annual Workshop

Weekly (TL In-Country)

Periodic

Ministry of National Planning & Development

• Quarterly Report • Quarterly JSC • Annual Workshop • Case Studies

Quarterly

Implementing Partners • Field assessment • FGDs • KIIs • Case Studies

Quarterly

Community Representatives

• Field assessment • FGDs • KIIs • Case Studies

Quarterly

Equipment Suppliers/Installers

• KIIs • Annual Workshop

Periodic

Other Donors • Annual Workshop • Case Studies

Periodic

Other Interested Stakeholders

• KIIs • Annual Workshop • Case Studies

Periodic


To provide an overview of the communication strategy, table 8 below shows how the various content categories and communication approach will be covered through the RTL products, tools and audience groups respectively.

Table 8: Communication strategy overview

Content Objective

Programmatic Thematic Contextual Methodological Collaborative Reflexive Explanative

Products

Quarterly Reports

X X X X X X X

RTL Workshops

X X X X X X X

Annual Reviews

X X X

RTL Final Report

X X X

Tools

Stakeholders engagement

X X X X X X

Key informant interviews

X X X X X

Focus group discussions

X X X X X

Case studies X X X X X X

Pre-/post- field assessments

X X X X X X

Audiences

RTLG X X X X Active Observer

Direct Local groups

X X X Active Passive

Direct International groups

X X X X Active

Indirect Local groups

X X Observer Passive

Direct International groups

X X X Observer Passive


Annex 1 Updated Implementation Workplan

The updated work plan for the ESRES RTL implementation phase is presented in the tables below. Key features and assumptions of the plan include:

The RTL team leader will be in-country for approximately five weeks each quarter—typically two weeks at the end of the quarter and three weeks at the beginning of the quarter. This is aligned with the quarterly reporting and JSC meeting schedule.

The short list of potential hybrid mini-grid implementing partners will be finalised by the end of the inception period.

The formal technical proposals for the hybrid mini-grids will be completed within six weeks, and the contracting process with the selected implementing partners will be completed by the end of April 2016 (end of Quarter 1).

Fieldwork begins at the selected sites prior to actual installation during Quarter 2.

Installation at some sites will be completed in less than nine months and all sites will be completed within 18 months (by end of Quarter 7, October 2017).

Fieldwork will occur on a quarterly basis, subject to the status and progress at the sites being assessed. Sites near Hargeisa will be visited as many as four times, while any selected site in a more remote region will be visited twice—once prior to installation and once, ideally, after.

Assessment of the technical assistance to the MoEM will occur while the RTL team leader is in-country.

The annual review will start in mid-April and be completed by mid-May.

The annual RTL workshop will be held at the end of the first and second implementation years, probably in late January or early February.


Annex 2 RTL Risk Matrix

UQ views risk management as a continuous process. During the inception process, we reviewed and revised the initial risk assessment included in the technical proposal. This will be reviewed and amended as necessary throughout contract delivery in consultation with DFID. Assessment and management of on-going risks will be included in our quarterly progress reports.

The risk assessment presented below takes into account three levels of potential risks: 1. Contextual risks (factors over which the programme has limited or no control), 2. Programmatic risks (risks inherent to RTL delivery) and 3. Institutional risks (risks related to institutional procedures). The table below identifies risks for each of the three categories, assesses the likelihood of the risk and the impact it can have (high – medium – low), its consequences for the RTL; and presents our mitigation strategies. It also foresees the grading of the risk after its mitigation. Mitigation actions for contextual risks refer to control measures that we can carry out to minimise negative contextual outcomes on the RTL: they are not intended to reduce the risk itself, but minimise the impact the risk can have on the RTL.

Note that, as per the discussion during the RTL Validation workshop, the RTL risk matrix is planned to be consolidated with the ESRES Secretariat risk matrix so that there is consistency throughout the ESRES programme’s risk tools.


Programme Level Risk Assessment: Our Initial View

n = High Risk n=Medium Risk n = Low risk

Contextual Risks

Risk Grading

Mitigation Actions Risk grading

after mitigation L I

Security situation deteriorates, putting personnel’s safety at risk and restricting activities to be delivered as part of contract

M H

A full risk assessment has been carried out and a comprehensive security plan implemented by our in-house security team during inception, and will be updated periodically thereafter. Continuous assessment and reassessment of risk rating will be undertaken on an on-going basis.

In the event of increased and prolonged deterioration in security, discussions will be held with DFID to refocus priorities and agree achievable objectives within this environment. All team members have undertaken HEAT or similar training and DoC mechanisms are in place for all team members:

Robust risk management procedures developed and risk monitored by our Group Security Manager

Comprehensive pre-deployment briefings to ensure all staff are prepared for the operating conditions (including economic, political, social, cultural and environmental factors)

Appropriate insurance arrangements for all project staff including provision for medical evacuation.

In the event of continued in-country travel risks for international consultants, our proposed methodology is flexible enough to enable a re-focussing of resources towards our local partner, Altai and its network of Somaliland data collectors, and Somaliland Senior Researches. This will reduce the need for non-Somaliland staff to travel in remote locations, resulting in a lowered risk profile.

M

Worsening economic situation/shocks pose problems with comparability of RTL results

M M

We will monitor changes in the economic context by engaging with the Somaliland government and other key nationals through regular input from our experienced local Political Economy expert. We also maintain a project Strategic Risk Register that incorporates updates to the economic and political context, and any other material changes of significance to the RTL. Throughout implementation, we will consider "economic stability and resilience" as a parameter for determining data collection samples, in order to avoid biases caused by unpredictable events.

M

Low interest/commitment from stakeholders involved in ESRES results in low interest/commitment to the RTL

M M

Engagement and relationship-building are integral to our proposed methodology, and we fully understand the importance of investing to secure the buy-in of key stakeholders (in particular the ESRES implementing partner, power providers, and the MEM). During inception we held an RTL “Launch Workshop” to involve the full complement of ESRES delivery staff, which focused on:

Introducing the RTL team to the ESRES Secretariat and establishing positive working relations;

Explaining the RTL purpose – emphasising the focus on learning;

Establishing the RTL team as a resource to support the ESRES Secretariat (not as an external auditor or evaluator to be treated with suspicion);

Refining and agreeing the programme level ToC which forms the overarching framework guiding RTL activities, lines of enquiry and analysis;

Considering the practical implications of the RTL process and the ESRES Secretariat’s requirements; and

Reflecting on appropriate mechanisms for participation of the ESRES Secretariat in the RTL process.

This process was additionally supplemented through Key Informant Interviews (KII’s) and Political Economy Analysis (PEA), culminating in a “Validation Event”, where we presented our proposed approach to the RTL to a wider group of

L


stakeholders, including the MoEM, power providers, DFID, and other relevant parties. This ensured that key stakeholders have ample time to participate in, reflect upon, and become comfortable with, the RTL design.

Protocols for coordination, engagement, management, communication, and dissemination of outputs to each of the stakeholders have been discussed and will continue to be reflectively updated as needed throughout the RTL process.

We will continue to work with the ESRES Secretariat, DFID, MoEM, and other stakeholders to raise awareness of the RTL process and encourage engagement. We will adopt a flexible approach to timing and format of consultations (including individual and group/ face to face and telephone) to accommodate the needs of stakeholders as well as security restrictions. We will also hold annual RTL workshops which offer forums for communicating and refining the RTL process.

These more formalised measures will be underpinned by regular informal communication between the RTL team and stakeholders (in particular the ESRES Secretariat, the MoEM and DFID), principally, to be achieved by:

Significant time allocated to our Team Leader for in-country work to ensure continuity and momentum to relationship building;

In-country contacts through our local Partner Altai and Tusmo research (who are located in Somaliland);

Co-location of Team Leader in the ESRES Secretariat office, ensuring regular contact.

Election in 2017 results in regime change, with new government less amenable to DFID support/ less willing to engage with the ESRES programme

L H

Elections are now due to take place in Somaliland in March 2017, having originally been planned to for 2015. However, Somaliland’s reliance on donor funding overall means that in the immediate to short-term, it would be unlikely that a new government would seek to move significantly away from DFID or other donor-based funding.

While directly influencing any potential new government on whether, and/or how it should engage with the ESRES programme is outside of our remit, the RTL provider can support the ESRES Secretariat, DFID, and other stakeholders, to highlight the successes and benefits of ESRES, recommend corrective measures to improve the results of the programme, and ultimately, make the case for its future expansion.

L

Programmatic Risks

RTL team unable to visit project site

H H

The RTL team will collaborate with the ESRES Secretariat to gather required information.

The team will meet with power providers and prospective power providers in Hargeisa.

Altai/Tusmo have extensive contacts in every region of Somaliland. If the team is unable to travel to a location, for logistics, security or other reasons, we will identify and communicate with local contacts and engage with them remotely.

M

Power provider fails to significantly lower price of electricity (ESRES programme risk)

M H

Although not an RTL risk per se, the RTL team will encourage the ESRES Secretariat to evaluate proposals based on likelihood of significant price reduction. RTL team will collaborate with ESRES Secretariat to identify factors in proposals that are more likely to lead to significant price reductions.

RTL team will recommend that ESRES Secretariat include explicit performance clause in contract and support development of regulatory authority.

RTL team will engage with communities prior to implementation. Although not the primary purpose of this activity, it will create community awareness of the planned outcome of the project (reduced price of electricity), so this may create social pressure on power providers to honour their commitment.

RTL team will gather and validate baseline cost and tariff information. This will make it difficult for power providers to claim that they reduced prices if in fact they failed to.

L

Project team unable to deliver comprehensive, high quality RTL products

L H

UQ has engaged a highly experienced senior team including internationally recognised experts and partners with in-depth local knowledge and presence. The core consultancy team has significant experience of operating in FCAS, including in Somaliland and Somalia. Project level contracts detailing required inputs, outputs and performance management measures will be prepared and agreed with each team member prior to contract commencement. Regular communication

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with the team, the ESRES Secretariat, DFID, and other stakeholders will ensure that RTL products are in line with DFID's expectations and UQ standards However, if we identify any problems with the performance of individuals we will immediately discuss this with DFID and, if required, replace them as quickly as possible with suitably qualified alternatives; Our procedures for handling staff retention and team changes were outlined in Section 2.3.4 of our technical tender document.

Our methodology has been specifically designed to ensure regular feedback loops of information to enable corrective measures to be instigated as quickly as possible. Our methodology deliberately structured the delivery of outputs/products around the programme needs, and this approach will be reviewed during the Annual RTL workshops, ensuring a comprehensive and high quality approach to the RTL.

ESRES implementer does not acknowledge RTL provider’s mandate and refuses to engage meaningfully with RTL process

L H

We understand that the requirement for the ESRES Secretariat to engage with the RTL provider is formally mandated within the Secretariat’s own TORs (and presumably are captured contractually with the Secretariat), so this reduces this risk significantly.

However, we will continue to work very closely with the ESRES Secretariat, and other stakeholders, in a transparent and participative manner, as outlined in our work plan and methodology (e.g. investing in annual communication events, KII’s, regular informal contact, and co-location in the implementer’s offices). We appreciate that it will be contingent on the RTL team to overcome resistance where it does exist, and this will be addressed by a consultative approach with relevant stakeholders. Our team are all extremely experienced, senior professionals who individually and collectively have vast experience of stakeholder engagement, securing buy-in, and relationship building.

L

Incidents of fraud/ corruption undermine aims of the ESRES programme

M H

Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index places Somalia as the lowest ranked country in the world for positive perceptions of corruption (Somaliland is not listed). Somalia also ranks lowly in the World Bank Governance indicators. Wider Public Financial Management (PFM) systems in Somaliland, while functioning, are characterised by weakness, presenting the opportunity for corruption.

While the responsibility for ensuring sound financial management of ESRES programme spend will largely rest with the ESRES Secretariat, overseen by DFID, the RTL provider can play a key role in ensuring that best practice programme management and monitoring measures are in place, and where deficiencies are found, making clear recommendations for corrective action. This may include design measures to actively reduce the scope for corruption, such as increased scrutiny and regularity of financial management mechanisms, strengthened grant fund procedures, and active engagement on through our communications plan to ensure that a consistent message is communicated that corruption will not be tolerated.

M

Lack of agreement on appropriate approach to research design/ implementation

M H

Our team is highly experienced in delivering participatory evaluation and learning approaches to DFID’s programme implementers, including theory of change, quantitative and qualitative data collection, producing policy briefs, structured learning and adaptive management, and results dissemination. We have allocated significant time and resource during the inception phase, and thereafter, for our team to meet with key stakeholders (particularly the ESRES Secretariat), hold preliminary key informant interviews, agree RTL questions and conduct documentary and literature review on ESRES and renewable energy in Somaliland. This will ensure full understanding of ESRES and the existing evidence base and buy-in from key stakeholders to ensure a suitable RTL approach is agreed upon. Our local presence in Somaliland, through our local partner, will also ensure that our proposals are grounded in a realistic view of what can be done, and how quickly, within the Somaliland operational, economic, political, and regulatory environments.

L

MoEM fails to implement TA plan

M M

RTL team will collaborate with ESRES Secretariat and MoEM (through designated focal point, the State Minister) to ensure that TA plan addresses MoEM needs as much as possible.

RTL TL will regularly engage with focal point to ensure that TA is meeting Ministry needs.

L


Gaps/ inconsistency in quantitative and secondary data

H M Data gaps/inconsistencies have been identified during Inception, allowing us sufficient time to adjust the methodological approach and ensure the analysis is not affected. We will use a mixed methods approach which will compensate for any gaps. Should we find issues cannot be explored quantitatively we will carry out additional qualitative research.

L

Contractor is unable to coordinate inputs across the team

L M

UQ has a Project Director (Ewan Snedden) with a proven track record managing diverse teams and delivering complex evaluation and learning assignments in FCAS contexts. In addition, the core consultancy team is experienced at organising, managing, coordinating the competing demands of complex evaluations.

The Project Director will be supported by UQ’s business support capacity and professional partners including project management and compliance support, from the UQ support team and our professional IT and financial services partners.

L

Changes in team members

M L

We can re-confirm the availability of our senior team for the duration of the project, in line with proposed personnel inputs. However, this is a long-term assignment and it is not possible to guarantee that staff change will not be necessary. We have robust processes in place to monitor and manage staff capacity. Should changes in the staff team be necessary (for unforeseen reasons) we will ensure a smooth transition by:

Having in place a clear implementation plan drafted during the inception phase to clearly show the sequencing of key tasks, responsibilities across the team and milestones for delivery

Additional consultants would only be drafted in with the full agreement of DFID

Detailed and systematic recording, storing and processing of all information relating to the RTL to ensure it is clear and accessible to all team members

A comprehensive exit strategy, debrief and handover session if staff change is unavoidable.

L

Institutional Risks

Project team do not act in accordance with professional and ethical standards

L H

UQ adheres to all professional and ethical standards appropriate to our profession. Our code of practice (endorsed by all Partners and Associates) ensures that our evaluators operate with due awareness and sensitivity to the different cultures, customs, religious beliefs and practices of all stakeholders and that the impact of gender roles, ethnicity, age, language and other differences are taken into account in the design and delivery M&E activity.

L

Relationship between RTL provider and ESRES Secretariat becomes either strained/ dysfunctional due to disagreements over approach/performance, or becomes too close, resulting in a lack of objectivity as regards programme performance

L H

UQ has experience of evaluating and providing technical assistance to DFID programmes. This experience means that we are well versed in the need to maintain a professional relationship with DFID’s implementing partners. To mitigate these risks we will implement the following measures:

We invested significant time and resource into securing buy-in from the ESRES Secretariat during inception, focussing on how we can assist the Secretariat to achieve strategic wins, build momentum, and demonstrate success in a participative manner. This approach has been adopted elsewhere e.g. in our evaluation work for DFID, and UQ understands the importance of sustained, face-to-face contact and engagement to build relationships. We will do likewise with wider stakeholders.

We are equally aware that we have a responsibility to ensure that we do not become too close to the ESRES Secretariat, to the point that we lose objectivity in interpreting programme results. Our team comprises experienced consultants, used to undertaking monitoring, evaluating and disseminating learning, and who are therefore well aware of the ethical boundaries attached to this type of assignment.

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Consultants do not achieve best VfM for DFID

L H

VfM – encompassing assessment of economy, efficiency, effectiveness (and equity) – is embedded in our methodology. We have secured reduced day rates for all our international experts (detailed in our Commercial tender). Our method draws heavily on local resources (Altai and Tusmo Research), networks and knowledge to maximise access and engagement of stakeholders and staff and ensure VfM in expenses e.g. best value in accommodation, offices, car hire and miscellaneous expenses. UQ makes use of IT solutions to maximise VfM wherever possible. For example, conducting

L


consultations/ meetings by Skype or video conference where possible and appropriate; using innovative technological solutions to aid data collection and analysis.

Staff unprepared for operating conditions/ risks

L H

UQ has an established track record operating in FCAS and hence has comprehensive policies/ procedures in place to prepare staff for specific field environments; including provision of HEAT (reHEAT) as standard. We have ensured that Partners and Associates are well prepared for the operating environments. Specifically we have selected team members who are highly experienced in operating in FCAS, and have made appropriate insurance arrangements for project staff (including medical evacuation). We will continue to ensure this through:

Maintaining our well established relationships with professional security and risk management partners

Comprehensive pre-deployment briefings to ensure all staff are prepared for operating conditions (including economic, political, social, cultural and environmental factors)

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Annex 3 ESRES Theory of Change (TOC)


Annex 4 Stakeholder Engagement Matrix

Group Stakeholder Interests Issues/Concerns RTL Engagement Frequency

Government of Somaliland

Ministry of Energy and Minerals

Success of ESRES Pilot stage and into implementation stage

Improve efficiency, conservation, and loss reduction in the energy sector

Larger RE Fund are mobilised by donor(s)

Mandate clash with MoPWHT resolved

Somaliland Energy Policy already drafted but in need of review

To have regulatory frameworks in place with the Electricity Act

Awareness raising for renewable energy alternatives and climate change concerns

Allocating land for energy projects/investments

Improve access to electricity

Reduce price of electricity

Leverage additional funding for RE projects

Reach rural communities and Eastern regions (Sool & Sanaag)

Capacity at Ministry needs strengthening to be able to enforce regulations

No repeat in failures from previous renewable energy projects (e.g. USAID wind pilot project)

Too many donors in the energy sector with duplicating efforts

No detailed energy assessment nor Energy Master Plan completed as of yet

ESRES JSC

KIIs with Minister and senior staff

Informal assessment of TA

Facilitate Public-Private Dialogue

Infrastructure Pillar Meetings (NDP)

Designated Representative

Staff Receiving TA

Quarterly Report

Quarterly JSC

Case Studies

Annual Workshop

Weekly

(TL In-Country)

Ministry of National Planning and Development

All interventions are in line with priorities of the GoSL and its National Development Plan (NDP)

To ensure separate sectoral meetings Infrastructure pillar are on Energy

Developing the new NDP and aligning it to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

MoNPD regional coordination offices are consulted

Regular and smooth communication and coordination between intra-ministries

M&E indicators achieved

National Development Plan & Vision2030 goals achieved

Difficulties in coordinating Energy sector

That all six regions of Somaliland are equally benefiting from RE potential

Need to make sure correct line ministries are allocated for different energy interventions

Letter of Agreements (LoA) need to reflect donor commitments and align with priorities of GoSL

ESRES JSC

KIIs with Minister and senior staff


Economic Sector Meetings (NDP)

Quarterly Report

Quarterly JSC

Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Quarterly



Ministry of Public Works, Housing & Transportation

Tasked with implementation of energy projects. Policy mandated to MoEM

Mandated to run State-owned electricity agencies in Somaliland

Mandate overlapping with MoEM

Difficulties implementing policies

Super-ministry with several large mandates

Previously issued licences

Supply electricity to Government agencies/ministries

Effective public-private partnerships in energy sector including state-owned/partially privatised electricity agencies


Quarterly Report

Quarterly JSC

Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

Ministry of Environment

Enforce environmental strategies and policies including biomass which falls under Ministry of Environment mandate

Mandated with Climate change mitigation/adaptation policy formulation and implementation

Awareness raising on environmental issues including promoting renewable/alternative energy sources

Reduction in charcoal cutting and use in Somaliland

Climate change adaptation strategies implemented

Creating income generating and livelihood alternatives to charcoal

Problems from increased market prices in charcoal increasing cutting of trees/wood in Somaliland for illegal export and local consumption



Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

Ministry of Presidency

Plans to be net export of hydro-electricity to African countries with energy pools including 50MW allocation for Somaliland

To export to Somaliland Hydro-electric supply from newly built dams

Ethiopian Power Company (EPC formerly EEPCO interested in piloting cross-border distribution of high tension electricity to Borama and Togwachle

Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) yet to be signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland

Participation in Somaliland-Ethiopia Infrastructure and Investment Coordination Committee

Periodic

Local Government Municipalities increasingly allocating budgets for solar street lighting

Reporting damaged electricity grids/lines

Safer well-lit streets

Reduction in crime and illegal refuse dumping in districts

KIIs with Mayors and senior municipality staff


Periodic



In some cases were issuing power generation licenses

Cost savings in provision of service delivery

Solar street lights creating a disincentive to power providers and private sector supply

Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Local Water Agencies

Tackle water scarcity

Manage local water resources in urban areas

Use of renewable energy at water pumps, boreholes, barkhads (shallow wells)

Overlap in mandates with Ministry of Water in urban areas

Lacking capacity to handle service delivery in growing urban centres due to urbanisation

KIIs with General Managers of water agencies and advisors


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

Power Providers Power providers/Incumbent Generators

Protecting existing investment

Increased profits

Self-policing of energy sector or ‘light touch’ regulation

Creating a new Somaliland Electricity Association (in Q4 2015) to lobby and use as platform for combined interests

Providing subsided/discounted electricity to hospitals, mosques and street lights

High generation costs

Competing sources of electricity

Restrictive regulation

Pressuring other power providers to keep tariffs high

Financial concerns from liability to compensate deaths caused by unsafe grid/lines/distribution poles/power stations

Staff liability due to hazardous generator fumes from poor ventilation

Lack of trained staff

Lack of safety for consumers (fires/electrocution)

Collection of bills from customers and avoiding delinquency and non-payments. By trying to computerise billing (preventing physical collection of payments through use of mobile money) and improving metering.

Preventing theft of electricity and tampering with meters

Focus Group


Discussion and interpretation of emerging RTL data

Shaping recommendations of further RTL activity and development of RTL recommendations for programme delivery

Formally at Somaliland Electricity Association (SEA) meetings

Informal meetings

Conferences/forums

Case studies

Quarterly



Donors DFID ESRES programme success

Demonstrating viability of ESRES pilot

Leverage other donor funds to support RE development in Somaliland

Ensuring value for money to UK taxpayers

Weekly updates

Monthly reviews

Quarterly reports

ESRES Joint Steering Committee Meetings

Annual review

Case Studies

Annual Review

Annual Workshop

Weekly

(TL In-Country)

Quarterly

European Union EU energy strategy and plan completed to review energy needs of Somaliland

Funded Somaliland Energy Livelihoods Project (SELP) under the EU’s ACP Energy Facility

Identified several gaps in EU study

Looked into individual rooftop solar panels for rural and isolated communities


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

USAID Launched Powering Africa Initiative (although doesn’t include Somalia/Somaliland) in partnership with private sector and US agencies

Supported the Government of Somaliland (Ministry of Energy & Minerals, Ministry of Civil Aviation & Ministry of Trade & Investment) with their Partnership for Economic Growth (PEG) project

PEG support with the Hargeisa wind project pilot and work on supporting the business and regulatory environment under Economic Growth

Renewable energy project funded by USAID was unsuccessful in passing of the Electricity Act

Newly launched Economic Growth project, titled GEEL has component to support renewable energy in Somaliland/Somalia/

Puntland

Meetings with USAID regional office

Meetings with USAID economic growth and renewable energy implementing partners


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

IFC Interested in supporting private sector and foreign investor in Somaliland energy sector

Holding Public-Private Dialogues (PPD’s) on Energy

Challenge of improving on previous 2012 Doing Business guide for Hargeisa with new methodology used

Attracting Investors will be difficult without regulatory framework in place


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic



Promoting reform through the Doing Business (DB) Guide, in particular the Access to Electricity indicator

Have invested in Mini-grid and Heavy-fuel oil (HFO) projects around the world

Some energy projects more viable than other e.g. Transmission line and power interconnection with Ethiopia is more of a long-term investment

World Bank Producing an Energy Master Plan for Somaliland, Puntland and Somalia

Launched Lighting Africa Initiative

Somalia arrears make interventions difficult and limited to technical assistance only

Quoted figures above 150m USD that will be required to improve Somaliland’s energy infrastructure including the SL-Ethio Power Interconnection project


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

African Development Bank

Have several funds for climate change and renewable energy initiatives

Established a multi-partner fund for Somalia on Infrastructure (focus on ICT, Transport and Energy)

Undertaken a quick Energy Sector Assessment of Somaliland

Currently interested in funding alternative renewable energy for AfDB water and sanitation (WASH) projects in Somaliland rural areas (in line with Water Master Plan)


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

Somaliland Energy Commission

Independent Commission (yet to be established)

Once established will have all technical and regulatory oversight responsibilities to the Hybrid Mini-Grids

Setting tariffs and managing licencing

Set Industry codes for Transmission and Distribution & Supply

Electricity Act isn’t passed and Energy Commission is not established


Annual Workshop

Case Studies

Periodic

Community Groups

Households Currently use biomass fuels majority of energy consumption

Imported kerosene used mainly for lighting in rural areas and by some urban poor with Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) used for cooking by the richer segment of households/business in urban population.

Expensive cost of electricity

Less choice on electricity provider as power providers begin to consolidate

Health & safety concerns in electricity poles and

Customer service issues and complaints of overcharging or irregular service (i.e. black/brownouts)

Field Assessment

Focus Group


Case Studies

Quarterly



Have to pay cost of meters at home

Hospitals/Health Clinics/MCH

Provided with discounted/subsidised electricity

DFID and other donors have provided solar panels for MCH’s and clinics in rural areas

Tariffs in new electricity act may take away discounted energy

Hospitals with critical patients/A&E/Maternity wards have to rely on back-up generators

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic

Schools/ Universities

Some educational institutions are Introducing energy-related course

Universities/schools using more solar panels in urban and rural locations

Technical training courses and centres established

Curriculum’s not comprehensive or well designed and linked to industry/private sector

Difficulty in attracting professionals and qualified lecturers/teachers with expertise in renewable energy

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic

Mosques Provided with discounted/subsidised electricity and water

Request for donations from worshippers to pay for utility bills

Tariffs in new electricity act may take away discounted energy

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic

Local Businesses Hotels/restaurants use biomass for cooking food and back-up generators

High failure rate in business starts due to cost of energy

Energy intensive business struggle without cheaper alternatives and access to finance

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic

Diaspora Organisations/Hometown Associations

In investing in energy projects in the Somaliland and also in the regions with hometown associations

Complain of expensive cost of energy during visits to Somaliland

Establish a number of businesses that require intensive and expensive energy

Using solar panels on real estate developments outside of urban areas that have no grid.

Remittance flows are reducing due to pressures on financial flows around from a number of countries around the world

Remittances are reducing due to younger generation in Diaspora sending less money

Younger generation prefer to send money for investments rather than consumption (school fees, food, health etc.)

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic

Farmers & Pastoral Herders

Some farmers cut wood/charcoal for sale in Somaliland or for export

Livelihood impacted by climate change, desertification and charcoal cutting

Focus Group


Case Studies

Periodic



INGO’s/LNGOs Various (e.g., Shuraako, Somaliland Fair Fishing, HAVOYOCO, ADRA, Candlelight)

Helping Government to train college/technical vocational education graduations for the MoEM to help with administration

Renewable energy requires extensive training of installers, spare parts outlets and some after-sales services


Case Studies

Periodic

Telecommunication Companies/Internet Service Providers

Telesom/SomTel/Nation Link

SomCable

A large number telecoms companies are also power providers

Reduce costs to associated powering telecom towers

Fibre-optic Broadband company in Somaliland considering importing electricity along Berbera Corridor from Ethiopia

Provide mobile money services to power providers for bills collection

Some rural costumers used solar mobile phones provided by telecoms companies

Hybrid Mini-Grids would make business case for Ethio-Somaliland power transmission interconnection less viable

Berbera Corridor project running behind schedule

Competition from other telecommunication companies that already supply electricity moving into power transmission from Ethiopia


Case Studies

Periodic

Other Petroleum/LPG Suppliers

Somaliland is highly dependent on Imported expensive petroleum (light diesel fuel)

Gasoline, refined diesel, aviation gas and kerosene used for both electric power generation and transportation

Distribution issues to some out of reach rural communities

Pressures to reduce cost of fuel in line with world market price drop


Case Studies

Periodic

Equipment Suppliers/Installers

Encourage local supplies of auxiliary renewable energy equipment/parts

Promotion of local suppliers for filters, wires, bolts and nuts that can be locally manufactured

Need for more trainings, course as electricians and solar/wind technicians

To improve health and safety

Quality and standards of supplies not uniform


Case Studies

Periodic

esres inception report

Documents