eu grains supply and demand outlook · wheat exports coarse grain exports trade balance 30 20 10 0...

1

EU Grains Supply and Demand

Outlook

Director J. SchapsEuropean CommissionDirectorate C DG AGRI

IGC Grains Conference 2016London, UK

14th June 2016

CONTENTS

1. Global Context

2. EU Grains Supply and Demand

3. Outlook

2

€ vs $ exchange rate:a competitive Euro since 2 years

Crude oil price ($/barrel):cheap oil since 2 years

3

Baltic Dry Index:cheap transport since 2 years

Global Cereals Market: ample availabilities Supply > Demand in recent years

(incl. in EU)

4

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

$ /

to

nn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 191

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 208

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 190

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 183

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 192

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 159

Global cereal prices: down since 2 yearsEU cereals competitive

CONTENTS

1. Global Context


3. Outlook

5

EU Cereals Supply: good EU productionProduction ≈ 310 Mio t (incl. wheat 150 Mio t)

Imports ≈ 18 Mio t (incl. maize 12 Mio t)

Wheat: soft + durum wheatCoarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains

EU: a key player on the global market150 Mio t EU wheat ≈ 20% of global production

6

EU Cereals Production ≈ 310 Mio tMember States Overview

EU Cereals Demand: good EU exportsDomestic uses ≈ 280 Mio t (incl. feed 170 Mio t)

Exports ≈ 45 Mio t (incl. wheat 30 Mio t)

Wheat: soft + durum wheatCoarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains

7

Wheat imports

Coarse grain imports

Wheat exports

Coarse grain exports

Trade balance

30

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

mio t

Marketing Year (July‐June)

EU 28 ‐ Cereals exports and imports including flour and other processed products in grain equivalent

Source: EUROSTAT

36.4

16.2

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

EU Cereals Market: Production > ConsumptionTrade Surplus ≈ 30 Mio t in recent years

EU Oilseeds Supply: high importsProduction ≈ 33 Mio t (incl. rapeseed 22 Mio t)

Imports ≈ 16 Mio t (incl. soybean 13 Mio t*)

* Also annual imports of ≈ 19 Mio t of soya meal

8

EU Oilseeds Demand: no surplusDomestic uses ≈ 48 Mio t

Exports ≈ 1 Mio t

EU Grains Trade – OverviewKey Exports (eg wheat) and Imports (eg soya)

export

import0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Million tons

Barley including malt

export

import

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Million tons

Common wheat (incl. flour and groats)

export

import

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Million tons

Durum wheat (incl. flour)

export

import

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Million tons

Maize (Incl. processed products)

export

import

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Million tons

Rape or Colza seeds

export

import0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Million tons

Rape, colza or mustard oil

export

import

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Million tons

Soybeans

export

import

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Million tons

Soymeal

export

import

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Million tons

Palm oil

Source: EUROSTAT – July-March data

9

CONTENTS

1. Global Context


3. Outlook

18

EU Cereals Supply: positive outlookWheat to stay No 1 in EU

Barley17%

Other cereals6%

Rice1%

Rye3%

Durum wheat3%

Maize13%

Oats4%

Rapeseed9%

Sugar beet2%

Sunflower seed6%

Common wheat34%

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5An

nu

al c

han

ge

in y

ield

bet

wee

n 2

01

1-2

01

5

and

20

25

Annual change in area harvested between 2011-2015 and 2025

Note: the size of the bubble refers to the share in area harvest on average in the years 2011-15

Annual changes in area and yields by crops between 2011-2015 and 2025 in the EU (%)

10

19

EU Cereals Demand: positive outlookfor Food, Feed and Exports

0

50

100

150

20

10

-15

20

25

20

10

-15

20

25

20

10

-15

20

25

20

10

-15

20

25

Total Wheat Maize Barley Other cereals

Mill

ion

t

Exports Bioenergy Feed Food and industrial

Concluding Remarks

• EU is a key player on global grains market

• Thanks to high supply, EU cereals competitive

• Environmental requirements may impact crop production in the EU

• Outlook is positive for EU Supply and Demand

11

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS

Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1342/2003), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer

Last update: 02.06.2016

Prices

Production & Stocks

Trade

Cropsstatus

Weatherconditions

EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures ‐ 60 days CME US maize & soybeans futures ‐ 60 days Monthly avg: currency ‐ oil ‐ freight

TRQs

€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t

US Gulf (SRW) 176 196 1% ‐2% ‐11% ‐9%

US Gulf (HRW) 176 197 2% ‐1% ‐19% ‐18%

EU Rouen (grade 1) 160 179 5% 2% ‐7% ‐6%

CA St Lawrence (CWAD) 260 290 5% 2% ‐20% ‐19%

EU Port‐la‐Nouvelle n.q. n.q. ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Black sea (feed) 149 166 0% ‐2% ‐11% ‐10%

EU Rouen (feed) 151 169 5% 2% ‐12% ‐11%

US Gulf (3YC) 164 183 8% 5% 6% 7%

EU Bordeaux 177 197 7% 4% 12% 13%

soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 378 422 9% 6% 10% 12%

maize

01 Jun 2016 m/m variation y/y variationExport prices FOB

durum

wheat

wheat

barley

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06

€/t

Euronext milling wheat futures

Daily volume

JUL'17: 179DEC'16: 175JUL'16: 165

Daily traded

volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons)

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06

$/t

CME Maize futures

Daily volumeJUL'17: 169DEC'16: 164JUL'16: 163

Daily traded


176

160

169

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16

€/t Wheat ‐ monthly avg. export prices (fob)

US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea

164

177

172

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16

€/t Maize ‐monthly avg. export prices (fob)

US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea

2015

1003722

320

0

1000

2000

3000

cereals maize wheat soybeans

World production (million tons)

2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)

313

145

66 62

0

100

200

300

400

cereals wheat maize barley

EU production (million tons)

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)

474

205 223

29

0

200

400

600

cereals maize wheat soybeans

World stocks (million tons)

2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)

49

18 158

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

cereals wheat maize barley

EU stocks (million tons)

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)

50

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

Brent Crude Oil $/barrel

160

170

180

190

200

210

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06

$/t

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

JUL'16: 174DEC'16: 185JUL'17: 198

Daily volume

Daily traded


300

320

340

360

380

400

420

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06

$/t

Chicago soybeans futures

Daily volume

JUL'16: 404AUG'16: 403

SEP'16: 396

Daily traded

volume (1000 contracts of 136tons)

612

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Freight (Baltic dry index)

Weekly volume

(current MY)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 10 19 28 37 46

To

tal

for

MY

-m

illio

n

ton

s

Wee

kly

vo

lum

e

-th

ous

and

to

ns

Week

2015/16 - 29.9 mio t.

Trim avg 5MY

2014/2015

Wheat and flour export commitments

Weekly volume

(current MY)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 10 19 28 37 46

To

tal

for

MY

-m

illio

n

ton

s

We

ekly

vo

lum

e

-th

ous

and

to

ns

Week

2014/2015

2015/16 - 9.1 mio t.

Trim avg 5MY

Barley export commitments

Weekly volume

(current MY)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 10 19 28 37 46

To

tal

for

MY

-m

illio

n

ton

s

Wee

kly

vo

lum

e -

tho

usa

nd

to

ns

Week

2015/16 - 12.5 mio

Trim avg 5MY

2014/2015

Maize import commitments

1.12

1.061.071.081.091.101.111.121.131.14


Exchange rate € vs $ $

950

14

400236

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Common

wheat

Barley MaizeTh

ousa

nd

ton

s

2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐Ukraine

Qty available

Qty allocated

101 13939572

2 278

123139 307

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Canada USA other

countries

all

origins

all

origins

all

origins

Common wheat Maize Barley

Th

ousan

d

ton

s

2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐WTO

Qty available

Qty allocated

Available at : http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm

Thank you for your attention!

EU balance sheets & market presentations available:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm

Cereals dashboard available:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm

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eu grains supply and demand outlook · wheat exports coarse grain exports trade balance 30 20 10 0...

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