eu market situation for poultry common · 2018. 5. 22. · eu poultry meat imports eu market...
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EU Market Situation
for Poultry
Committee for the
Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets
22 March 2018
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N 11
.8%
11.2
%
7.3%
6.3%
5.1%
4.6%
4.5%
3.8%
3.3%
2.7%
2.4%
1.5%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
-0.2
%
-0.8
%
-1.1
%
-2.4
%
-2.9
%
-3.3
%
-4.2
%
-4.5
%
0.8%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
LV DK SI LT CY IE PT RO PL FI UK CZ AT ES EL HR BE SE NL DE FR BG IT SK MT HU EU
Change in Poultry Meat Production in % 2017/2016 (up to December)
Source= Eurostat
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Chicks hatched for fattening(1 000 pieces) 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Production forecast of broiler(In tonnes) 2016 2017 2018
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS
BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
Parameter
National Average Live
weight (kg) at Slaughter2.40 2.10 1.90 2.10 2.11 2.39 2.40 2.66 2.02 1.99 2.04 2.60 2.64 2.10 2.44 2.40 2.33 2.55 2.23 1.83 2.44 1.85 2.20 2.20 2.12 2.34 1.91 2.23
National Average Carcass
yield (%)68% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 70.0% 71.0% 75.0% 70.2% 67.0% 69.4% 71.7% 70.1% 77.0% 74.4% 75.1% 68% 70.1% 74.0% 66.0% 75.0% 69.9% 72.4% 70.5% 72.5% 72.5% 75.0% 69.0%
National Average
Mortality (%)2.0% 4.3% 4.0% 2.5%
3.0-
3.5%
(l.w)
4.0%
(h.w.)
2,5%
-
3,0%
6.0% 5.2% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9% 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.0% 2.0% 4.2% 6.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8%
National Average Period
of rearing (days)40.0 51* 35.0 35.0
30 -
3837 - 40 45.0 43.5 37.7 35.0 36.9 35/46 47.4 37.1 40.0 40.0 41.5 45.0 41.0 35.00 42.0 37.8 41.0 37.7 38.5 37.0 42.0
New parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N
Euro – US Dollar exchange rate
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18
Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - U.S. Dollar/Euro
16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 1.23 USD
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N
Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real
exchange rate
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
Exchange rate: ARG Peso/Euro, Spot, ECB reference and local market quotes
Exchange rate: BRA Real/Euro, Spot, ECB reference
16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 25.04 ARS = 4.05 BRL
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s
World cereal prices ($/t)
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
$ /
to
nn
e
Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 208
Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 216
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 208
Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 195
Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 190
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 207
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s
US CME SRW wheat futures
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
Daily volume
MAY 2018 (R)
SEP 2018 (R)
MAY 2019 (R)
172
184
201
170
180
190
200
210
220
0
50
100
150
200
03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
Last 14 days
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s
CME maize futures
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0
160
320
480
640
800
960
1 120
12/14 06/15 12/15 06/16 12/16 06/17 12/17
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 127 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
Daily volume
MAY 2018 (R)
SEP 2018 (R)
MAY 2019 (R)
151
156
163
150
155
160
165
170
0
150
300
450
600
03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 127 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
Last 14 days
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s
CME soya futures
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
11/14 05/15 11/15 05/16 11/16 05/17 11/17
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 t)
Chicago (CME) soybeans futures
Daily volume
MAY 2018 (R)
JUL 2018 (R)
AUG 2018 (R)
MAY 2019 (R)
386
390
390
381
375
380
385
390
395
400
0
100
200
300
03/03/18 10/03/18
$/t
Da
ily
tra
de
d v
olu
me
(1
00
0 c
on
tra
cts
of
13
6 t)
Chicago (CME) soybeans futures
Last 14 days
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s
Soyameal world quotations $/ton
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug-
16
Sep-
16
Oct-1
6
Nov-
16
Dec-
16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr-1
7
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct-1
7
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
$/to
n
Brazil Paranagua
US Gulf
Argentina Up River
Source: IGC
401.0 449.0432.0
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R I C E S
Pric
es
- 0.6% + 0.8% + 3.0%
EUW E E K P R I C E S 11
last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR
BROILER
€/100 kg carcase weight
184.38
170
175
180
185
190
195
€/ 1
00
k
g
E V O L U T I O N S I N C E
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R I C E S
E U E V O L U T I O N
B R O I L E R
165
175
185
195
205
€uro
/ 1
00
kg
Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler
Avg. 2013-17 2017 2018
Latest price ==> 184.38 EUR/100 kg
Evolution compared same period last year (Week 11) : + 3.0%
Source: MSs notifications (Commission Implementing Regulation (EC) 2017/1185)
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R I C E S
E U E V O L U T I O N
B R O I L E R
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
In €
uro
/100
kg
Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil
EU US BR
Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices - Broiler 65%
US = weekly USDA prices - Fresh chicken grade A ,ChicagoBR = average of prices in main producing states - (Aveworld.com.br)
184.38 155.79 79.72
Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U I M P O R T S
B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s T R A D E
Compared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-janv 17
Thailand 251 185 29.7% 274 524 31.4% 290 309 32.2% 265 738 32.9% 26 988 38.6% + 14%
Brazil 507 355 60.0% 501 327 57.3% 504 796 56.0% 401 465 49.7% 24 862 35.6% - 46%
Ukraine 19 958 2.4% 42 513 4.9% 48 083 5.3% 80 083 9.9% 8 694 12.4% +++
Chile 25 815 3.1% 22 232 2.5% 28 808 3.2% 24 973 3.1% 4 584 6.6% + 26%
China 19 761 2.3% 18 403 2.1% 16 946 1.9% 19 203 2.4% 1 938 2.8% + 14%
Turkey 16 0.0% 441 0.0% 173 0.0% 1 479 2.1% +++
Argentina 10 996 1.3% 8 529 1.0% 6 463 0.7% 6 300 0.8% 834 1.2% + 9%
Switzerland 4 307 0.5% 2 424 0.3% 2 548 0.3% 2 752 0.3% 242 0.3% + 65%
Others 6 351 0.8% 4 984 0.6% 3 656 0.4% 6 616 0.8% 242 0.3% #N/A
Extra-EU 845 743 874 937 902 051 807 303 69 862
% change + 3.5% + 3.1% - 10.5% - 9.7%
2014 2015 2016 Jan-janv 182017
EU Poultry meat Imports
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U I M P O R T S
B r o i l e r T R A D E
28 75823 752 26 988
44 30946 249
24 862
1 527199
8 694
80 345 77 408
69 862
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18
TO
NN
ES
c
w
EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe)
Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins
9883 88
8597
54
203 200
179
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18
Mil
lio
ns E
UR
EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (Millions EUR)
Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins
Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
T R A D E E U E X P O R T S
B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s
Compared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-janv 17
Ukraine 80 084 5.3% 90 850 6.1% 114 891 7.1% 163 057 9.8% 15 975 12.3% + 54%
Ghana 56 900 3.8% 68 283 4.6% 77 018 4.8% 135 298 8.1% 11 726 9.1% + 27%
Philippines 57 641 3.8% 100 719 6.8% 126 733 7.8% 128 245 7.7% 11 603 9.0% + 115%
Hong Kong 136 177 9.1% 100 944 6.8% 123 771 7.7% 148 272 8.9% 11 063 8.6% - 29%
Benin 163 844 10.9% 138 414 9.3% 116 858 7.2% 106 557 6.4% 9 255 7.2% + 2%
Saudi Arabia 123 574 8.2% 142 496 9.6% 121 645 7.5% 98 797 5.9% 7 322 5.7% - 29%
Vietnam 19 884 1.3% 27 128 1.8% 36 180 2.2% 53 544 3.2% 5 323 4.1% + 35%
South Africa 203 412 13.5% 213 577 14.3% 271 092 16.8% 76 180 4.6% 5 154 4.0% - 43%
For.JRep.Mac 33 503 2.2% 31 404 2.1% 31 384 1.9% 34 020 2.0% 2 883 2.2% + 35%
Switzerland 31 511 2.1% 30 857 2.1% 31 921 2.0% 31 408 1.9% 2 732 2.1% + 6%
Russia 68 363 4.5% 1 223 0.1% 1 109 0.1% 993 0.1% 53 0.0% - 32%
Other Destinations 529 090 35.2% 543 975 36.5% 564 117 34.9% 686 657 41.3% 46 268 35.8%
Extra-EU 1 503 984 1 489 871 1 616 720 1 663 029 129 356
% change - 0.9% + 8.5% + 2.9% + 9.0%
2014 2015 2016 Jan-janv 182017
EU Poultry meat Export
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
T R A D E E U E X P O R T S
B r o i l e r
12 426 10 340 15 9755 801 9 233
11 72613 099 5 390
11 6038 600 15 650
11 0637 908 9 0829 255
67 869 69 001
69 733
115 703 118 697
129 356
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18
TO
NN
ES
cw
EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe)
Ukraine Ghana Philippines Hong Kong Benin Other destinations *
7 6 74 6 95 4 612
22 1657 9
106
104 108
139150
155
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18
Mil
lio
ns
EU
R
EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Millions EUR)
Ukraine Ghana Philippines Hong Kong Benin Other destinations *
* countries trading less than 155 ('Millions EUR)
EU Poultry meat Trade Balance
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
T R A D E B A L A N C E
302277 292 310
371
676
794
480
614 616
858891 876
821857 855
807846
875902
807
70
1 017
1 101 1 1161 153
1 114
1 275
1 063 1 046997 997
867
9821 016
1 265
1 504
1 431 1 428
1 504 1 490
1 6171 663
129
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-janv18
in 1
000
Tonn
es c
we
IMPORTS EXPORTS
EU Poultry meat trade balance (in 1000 euros)
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
T R A D E B A L A N C E
2 241 2 234
2 097
2 190
2 342
2 161
2 025
179
1 853
2 066 2 0892 055
2 121
1 9541 995
155
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-janv 18
in Millions EurosIMPORTS EXPORTS
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
Weekly epidemic curve for HPAI H5 outbreaks in poultry reported via ADNS (01/10/2016 - 19/03/2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HPAI in poultry, captive birds and wild birds 01/10/2016-19/03/2018 (MS affected in 2017 in red, 2018
outbreaks in blue)
Member State Wild birds Poultry Captive birds
GERMANY 1261 92 15
FRANCE 72 486 3
ITALY 24 83 (3)
NETHERLANDS 189 10(2) 11 (1)
BELGIUM 4 2 13
LUXEMBOURG 4
UNITED KINGDOM 133 13
IRELAND 13
DENMARK 78 1 1
GREECE 12 6
SPAIN 3 10
PORTUGAL 1
AUSTRIA 21 2 1
FINLAND 14 1
SWEDEN 40 4 2
CYPRUS 1
CZECH REPUBLIC 49 38 1
HUNGARY 196 240 5
POLAND 303 65
SLOVENIA 273
BULGARIA 20 76 (1) 2
LITHUANIA 13
ROMANIA 143 45 2
SLOVAKIA 252 9 2
CROATIA 48 11
EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
Where to find data:
• http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en.htm
• Click on link: Poultry
• Click on link: Presentations and prices
(righthand side under: in this chapter)
• Choose the item (link) you want
• Poultry dashboard
• http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/poultry-meat-dashboard_en.pdf
EUROPA SITE MARKETS