eu–asia: links and lessons
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction
EU–Asia: links and lessons
Erik Jones*, Michael G. Plummer
Johns Hopkins University SAIS-Bologna Center, Via Belmeloro, 11, Bologna 40126, Italy
Received 10 September 2003; received in revised form 1 October 2003; accepted 10 October 2003
1. Introduction
East Asia has been the primary example of a region in which economic integration has
proceeded through regionalization, rather than regionalism. That is, growing shares of
intra-regional trade and investment flows have been lead by market actors, rather than by
government initiatives in the form of preferential trading arrangements (PTA). Most
economist would recommend such a market-based approach as a more effective strategy,
ceteris paribus; increases in intra-regional interaction in the framework of a PTA derive
from trade and investment diversion, as well as trade and investment creation, which a
priori ambiguous effects on allocative efficiency. However, informal market integration
tends to be unambiguously welfare-enhancing, as economic-policy is non-discriminatory
Unilateral liberalization-coupled with active participation at the multilateral level, e.g.,
during the Uruguay Round trade talks—has been a hallmark of the Asian success story.
But times are changing. Since the Asian Crisis of 1997–1999, East Asian governments
have become quite active participants in the global regionalism zeitgeist, with many
proposals for PTAs between countries in the region (e.g., Japan–Korea, Singapore–Japan);
between countries and subregions in Asia (e.g., China–ASEAN); and with countries
outside East Asia (e.g., ASEAN–CER1, Singapore–US). Moreover, region-wide initiatives
have been developed under the auspices of the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) organization, in which member-states have already dedicated themselves to a
region of ‘‘open trade and investment’’ by 2010 (2020 for developing economies), and the
loosely formed Asia–Europe Meeting (ASEM), which is contemplating new forms of
cooperation between the EU and East Asian economies.
Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ39-051-291-7833; fax: þ39-051-228-505.
E-mail address: [email protected] (E. Jones).1 The Australia–New Zealand ‘‘Closer Economic Relations’’ (CER) agreement is one of the most
comprehensive free-trade areas in the world.
1049-0078/$ – see front matter # 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2003.10.008
This trend clearly constitutes a new approach to international economic-policy in East
Asia. Previously, the only significant PTA in the region was the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), created in 1967. This group embraced only superficial economic
initiatives until the early 1990s, when the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) was
negotiated. AFTA should be fully functioning by the end of 2003; however, the ASEAN
leaders have expressed a willingness to work toward far greater economic-policy ‘‘dee-
pening.’’ This has led to a number of agreements in the area of finance (e.g., the decision to
create an ‘‘Asian bond pool’’ at the Bank of International Settlements, the Chiang Mai
Initiative,2 and proposals to create integrated capital markets under the ‘‘Hanoi Plan of
Action’’) and, most recently (November 2002), an official investigation into the possibility
of creating an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020.
In using the term ‘‘economic community,’’ the ASEAN leaders revealed an openness to
the idea of learning from the European integration process, which is widely regarded as a
success story (albeit the degree of success is somewhat controversial). This also
represents a sea-change in thinking; the EU, with its highly-formal approach to
integration and a penchant for supranational institutions and far-reaching regional
economic policies, has hitherto been in many ways the antithesis of (loose) Asian
cooperation. In this Special Issue, for which initial drafts were presented in Bologna at a
joint ICSEAD3—Johns Hopkins University workshop in May 2003, we consider many
key issues in the European integration context (past and present) and attempt to apply
them to East Asian realities today. Given that the evolution of the EU has been as much a
political process as it has been economic in nature, we place a strong emphasis on
political–economy considerations in formulating the policy lessons of EU integration for
East Asia.
The remainder of this introductory chapter is organized as follows. In Section 2, we give
a brief review of EU–Asia ‘‘links’’ and summarize associated chapters that are found in this
issue. Section 3 asks whether there are any direct lessons that the Asian countries can derive
from recent European experience. Section 4 concludes.
2. The EU and Asia in the global economy: a statistical overview
The East Asian status quo today is very different from the origins of integration in
Europe. First, the contemporary global marketplace is much more open. The GATT/WTO
rounds as well as unilateral liberalization have led to extensive reductions in trade barriers
and to huge increases in international capital flows (including foreign direct investment
(FDI)). In turn, this openness suggests that the costs of using regional integration as a form
of ‘‘fortress,’’ that is, to maximize trade diversion, are consequently much higher than they
were in the past, as separating the regional economy from the global production chain has
become too costly.
2 The Chaing Mai Initiative developed a framework for bilateral swap agreements between Japan and the
ASEAN member-states, as well as other Asian countries.3 ICSEAD: International Centre for Southeast Asian Development. The workshop was held at the Bologna
Centre of the Johns Hopkins University.
830 E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842
Second, regionalism has grown by leaps and bounds—particularly recently; trade
groupings reported to the WTO come to well over 200, with a majority being established
after 1995. East Asia has been negatively affected by economic integration in its largest
markets (the United States, EU) by recent integration schemes4 and, hence, is apprehensive
regarding new initiatives, such as the enlargement of the EU to include Central and Eastern
Europe and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) proposal. Thus, the recent
decisions to engage in horizontal and vertical integration stems both from the EU example
of success as well as a defensive reaction to integration elsewhere. It may also be an
example of ‘‘the flag following trade,’’ rather than ‘‘trade following the flag’’ (as in the case
of the EU).
The differences are not only evident in comparisons across time. They also show up in
comparisons across countries and regions. While the expansion of the EU to include the 10
Central and Eastern European countries beginning in 2004 will change things, to date all 15
EU countries are technically developed countries. East Asia, on the other hand, features
developed; ‘‘dynamic Asian economies’’; middle-income developing countries; and least-
developed countries. The Asian Development Bank in its Asian Development Outlook
2002 notes that the coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by the mean) on
income levels within ASEAN was 1.61 in 2000, whereas the corresponding figure for the
EU was 0.6. Economic-integration initiatives are far more complicated and risky in such an
environment.5
The EU is also more integrated than East Asia. As can be seen from Table 1, intra-Asian
trade comes to slightly less than one-half of total trade (48%). This is far less than the two-
third share of intra-Western Europe trade, although somewhat higher than intra-NAFTA
trade (40%) and significantly higher than intra-Latin American trade (17%). As intra-
regional trade in Asia has evolved as part of a regionalization process and the EU has been
pushed by a series of policy-driven discriminatory initiatives (beginning with the European
Table 1
Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade, 2001 (percentage of total trade)
Origin Destination
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
C/E Europe,
CIS
Africa Middle
East
Asia World
North America 39.5 16.5 19.0 0.7 1.3 2.1 20.9 100.0
Latin America 60.8 17.0 12.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 6.3 100.0
Western Europe 10.3 2.3 67.5 5.9 2.5 2.6 7.8 100.0
C/E Europe, CIS 4.2 2.1 55.2 26.6 1.0 2.8 6.6 100.0
Africa 17.7 3.5 51.8 0.7 7.8 2.1 14.9 100.0
Middle East 16.5 1.3 16.5 0.8 3.8 7.6 47.3 100.0
Asia 25.1 2.7 16.8 1.1 1.6 3.0 48.2 100.0
World 21.9 5.6 40.6 4.2 2.1 2.7 21.7 100.0
Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, www.wto.org. C/E: Central and Eastern.
4 For example, the Single Market Program had a significantly-negative impact on Asia exports and NAFTA
seems to have hurt certain export sectors (see Kreinin & Plummer, 2002).5 See, for example, ADB (2002) for a discussion of related issues.
E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842 831
Coal and Steel Community and the European Payments Union and continuing on to
the Treaty of Rome, the Single Market Program, and Economic and Monetary Union),
it is, perhaps, unfair to make a direct comparison of Western Europe and East Asia as
‘‘natural’’ economic blocs. Indeed, double-density measures, in which intra-regional trade
is normalized by shares in global trade, tend to be higher in the context of East Asia,
ranging in 2000 from 1.4 to 2.2 in the case of EU countries and 2.6–5.5 in the original
ASEAN countries.
Hence, at least at the level of intra-regional trade, the respective EU and the East Asian
situations are arguably similar in terms of statistical indicators. But this is not true at the
subregional context, where most economic-integration initiatives are taking place. Table 2
notes that intra-ASEAN trade came to only about one-forth of total regional trade, and
there is not an obvious trend in terms of changing shares: since 1990, intra-regional exports
have fluctuated between one-fifth and one-fourth of total trade, and intra-regional imports
have been slightly lower.6 This underscores the fact that ASEAN could never presume to
use an inward-looking regional approach in order to develop, as the EU did in the 1950s
and 1960s: the region is just too small and dependent on the rest of the world. A ‘‘Fortress
Table 2
Shares of intra-regional trade for EU, selected Asia–Pacific groupings (billions of dollars and share in total)
Value 2001 Share in total export/import
1990 1995 2001
EU (15)
Total exports 2291 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-exports 1417 64.9 64.01 61.85
Extra-exports 874 35.1 35.99 38.15
Total imports 2334 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-imports 1421 63.0 65.23 60.89
Extra-imports 913 37.0 34.77 39.11
APEC (21)
Total exports 2700 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-exports 1938 67.5 73.06 71.78
Extra-exports 762 32.5 26.94 28.22
Total imports a 2969 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-imports 2076 65.4 71.74 69.92
Extra-imports 893 34.6 28.26 30.08
ASEAN (10)
Total exports 385 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-exports 90 20.1 25.52 23.46
Extra-exports 295 79.9 74.48 76.54
Total imports 336 100.0 100.00 100.00
Intra-imports 77 16.2 18.89 22.77
Extra-imports 260 83.8 81.11 77.23
Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, www.wto.org.
6 This discrepancy comes, inter alia, from much double-counting in intra-regional ASEAN trade, e.g., in the
area of petroleum-related trade.
832 E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842
ASEAN’’ would be a disaster, a reality that the ASEAN leaders appreciate as they have
always stressed ‘‘open regionalism’’ in their initiatives.7
Regarding the ‘‘links’’ between the EU and East Asia, Table 1 shows that Western
Europe is Asia’s third most important trading partner, after Asia itself and North America.
While trade with the United States is almost 50% higher than trade with the EU, at 17% the
EU share in Asian trade is significant and constitutes a key market for Asia exports. In fact,
from the perspective of the structure of trade, Asian exports to the EU tend to be in the
region’s most dynamic areas, especially electrical machinery, electronics, and transport
equipment (SITC 7). Table 3 gives a breakdown of EU imports from individual Asian
countries. For all East Asian countries save Indonesia and Vietnam, SITC 7 is the largest
sector for exports to the EU at the one-digit level, and in most cases it constitutes greater
than half of all exports, even in resource-abundant countries such as Malaysia and the
Philippines. Moreover, in all cases save Singapore—where SITC 7 already constituted over
three-fourths of total exports to the EU—the share of SITC has grown significantly since
1995, in some cases spectacularly (e.g., in the Philippines from 39 to 76%). In sum, the EU
is a key market in terms of quantity and quality, even if it is not the largest.
The same can be said of FDI flows. Promoting FDI as a means of attracting (non-debt
creating) long-term capital flows, foreign exchange, access to foreign markets, and
technology transfer is a high priority for all Asia countries from the least to the most
developed, and in most cases is thought to have played a salient role in economic growth
performance.8 Regional economic integration accords such as AFTA can promote FDI
inflows through reductions in transactions costs (be they border or non-border in origin). In
doing so, they establish an attractive business environment within which multinationals can
profit from a vertical division of labor, as well as facilitate the emergence of multinationals
within the developing region itself. EU integration constitutes an excellent example of how
this process can work.
The EU continues to be an important supplier of FDI to East Asia. Table 4 presents data
on FDI outflows to ASEAN from major EU countries, the United States and Japan, as well
as FDI inflows reported by the ASEAN countries.9 In the early-mid 1990s, the United
States and Japan each exported more FDI to ASEAN than the combined EU-4, in some
years significantly more so. However, recent FDI data suggest an increasing European
presence in ASEAN; EU-4 FDI outflows to ASEAN exceeded both Japanese and US FDI
outflows to the region in 1999, and exceeded US FDI outflows in 2000 (Japanese data were
not yet available for 2000).
In terms of FDI stocks10, the major EU countries in 1999 had much smaller positions
compared to the United States and Japan. Among the EU countries, the United Kingdom
had the largest FDI stock in ASEAN ($6.3 billion), followed by Germany ($6 billion) and
France ($3.6 billion). This compares with US and Japanese positions of $46 and $21
7 ‘Open regionalism’ is a term developed in the context of APEC in which regional initiatives are all non-
discriminatory vis-a-vis third parties.8 Certain high-growth countries, especially Japan and South Korea, did not actively promote FDI during their
respective high-growth phases. However, today they have placed an emphasis on promoting FDI inflows.9 This discussion is drawn from Plummer (2002).
10 The data for this paragraph were taken from OECD, International Direct Investment Statistics 2001 (CD-
Rom, 1980–2000), with author’s adjustments to convert to US dollars in the case of the EU countries and Japan.
E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842 833
Table 3
EU imports from major developing Asian markets, 1995–1999
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
China Singapore
0 Food 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Crude material 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
3 Mineral fuels 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Animals/vegetable oils 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Chemicals 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.12
6 Manufactured goods 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
7 Machines/equipments 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.32 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.79 0.78
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.06
9 Common NES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01
Total US millions 34325.51 37995.28 42362.20 46858.71 52683.37 11120.74 11530.21 12665.32 13487.91 13118.12
Indonesia Hong Kong
0 Food 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Crude material 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
3 Mineral fuels 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Animals/vegetable oils 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Chemicals 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
6 Manufactured goods 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07
7 Machines/equipments 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.40
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.32 0.36 0.61 0.60 0.57 0.51 0.51
9 Common NES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.02
Total US millions 7975.36 8970.34 9430.47 9993.17 9322.89 9298.81 9079.21 9339.51 10717.67 11160.03
Malaysia South Korea
0 Food 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Crude materials 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
3 Mineral fuels 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
83
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4 Animal/vegetable oils 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Chemicals 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.04
6 Manufactured goods 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.12
7 Machines/equipments 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.67 0.72
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.09
9 Common NES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01
Total US millions 11767.59 11619.13 11650.56 13452.02 13446.17 14213.46 13965.97 14816.18 17883.30 19251.45
Philippines Taiwan
0 Food 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Crude material 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
3 Mineral fuels 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Animals/vegetable oils 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Chemicals 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
6 Manufactured goods 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.13
7 Machines/equipments 0.39 0.50 0.59 0.70 0.75 0.62 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.69
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16
9 Common NES 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total US millions 3027.56 3802.82 4240.09 6157.97 6007.89 15129.97 16541.91 17492.46 19833.09 20764.95
Thailand India
0 Food 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.09
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00
2 Crude material 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05
3 Mineral fuels 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Animals/vegetable oils 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
5 Chemicals 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08
6 Manufactured goods 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.37
7 Machines/equipments 0.32 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.10
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.30
9 Common NES 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total US millions 8474.13 9419.19 9492.54 10218.36 10449.04 10110.23 10837.40 10720.28 10954.07 10655.45
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Table 3 (Continued )
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Vietnam Pakistan
0 Food 0.21 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.07
1 Beverages/tobacco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Crude material 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
3 Mineral fuels 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Animals/vegetable oils 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Chemicals 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Manufactured goods 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47
7 Machines/equipments 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
8 Miscellaneous manufactured 0.68 0.77 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.41
9 Common NES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total US millions 1503.97 1818.78 2545.47 2922.20 3360.80 2579.30 2616.30 2586.06 2601.13 2366.14
Source: Plummer, (2003). Structural change in a globalized Asia: Macro trends and US policy challenges. Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 243–281.
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billion, respectively. However, over the 1990–1999 period, EU FDI stocks grew fairly
impressively. In fact, in terms of US dollars, the growth in German outward FDI stock in
ASEAN was, at 302%, the fastest of all these countries. The US outward FDI stock grew by
293% and French FDI stocks by 109%, whereas the stock of the United Kingdom and Japan
actually fell by 15 and 24%, respectively.
In short, EU–Asian economic links are significant for both regions, and the EU
constitutes an important market for Asian exports and as a source of FDI. In this Special
Issue, we consider two aspects of these links, one dealing with trade and the other FDI. Our
first paper, ‘‘EU Enlargement and Its Impact of East Asia,’’ by Hiro Lee of ICSEAD and
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe of the World Bank, considers the economic effects of the
enlargement of the EU to include the 10 Central and Eastern European countries over the
next few years. Given similar factor endowments, government officials and economists
have been nervous that this enlargement might adversely affect their exports to the EU
given the inherent preferences of accession. Using a dynamic CGE model, they generate
three scenarios to evaluate the effects of the EU enlargement on East Asia. They find the
overall macroeconomic effects for East Asia are generally negative but small. At the
sectoral level there are some significant trade-diverting effects but really only in the labor-
intensive textiles and apparel sectors in China, Asian NIEs and ASEAN. In all other
sectors, output adjustments are marginal. They predict that, because the effects of EU
enlargement on sectoral output in East Asian countries are minor, industry lobbies will
Table 4
Direct foreign investment outflows to ASEAN (US$ millions)
1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
(A) Outflows from selected country sources to ASEAN
France 68.2 177 251.4 441.3 280.7 1338.8 1660.8 158
Germany 18.7 93.7 1128.4 1059.2 �224.9 395.1 1729.8 1804.2
Italy – – 13 76 120.5 26.7 16.1 8.4
United Kingdom 263 975 398.4 1988.1 2515.7 �3297.8 3791.6 6065.7
United States �108 1979 3411 6657 4532 963 6075 4680
Japan 935 4082 4558 5888.8 7097.7 4404 4197.1 –
1989 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
(B) Inflows reported by ASEAN country
Cambodia – – 150.8 293.6 204.0 121.0 125.5
Indonesia 682.0 1093.0 4346.0 6194.0 4677.0 �356.0 �2745.0
Lao PDR 4.0 6.0 95.4 160.0 86.0 45.0 79.0
Malaysia 1667.9 2333.0 4178.2 5078.0 5136.5 2163.4 1552.9
Myanmar 7.8 161.0 277.2 310.4 387.2 314.5 216.3
Philippines 563.0 530.0 1478.0 1517.0 1222.0 2287.0 573.0
Singapore 2886.6 5574.7 7206.4 8984.1 8085.2 5492.9 6984.3
Thailand 1775.5 2444.0 2068.0 2335.9 3894.7 7315.0 6213.0
Vietnam 4.0 16.0 2349.0 2455.0 2745.0 1972.0 1609.0
ASEAN total 7590.8 12157.7 22148.9 27328.0 26437.6 19354.8 14608.0
Sources: (A) OECD, International Direct Investment Statistics Yearbook (2001), CD-Rom; author’s calculations
(B) Asian Development Bank, Key Economic Indicators, Table 33, www.adb.org. (C) Plummer, (2002). The EU
and ASEAN: Real links and lessons in financial integration. The World Economy, 25 (10), 1469–1500.
E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842 837
likely restrain from protesting the enlargement, especially since dynamic restructuring may
create market penetration opportunities in areas in which East Asia has comparative
advantage.
In the second contribution, ‘‘Labor Productivity, Wage, Nationality, and Foreign
Ownership Shares in Thai Manufacturing 1996–2000,’’ Eric Ramstetter, also of ICSEAD,
focuses on micro questions related to the economic characteristics of multinational
corporations (MNCs) operating in Thailand in a comparative context using firm-level
data. As suggested above, economists tend to take for granted that MNCs should actually
have considerably higher labor productivity and pay higher wages. After an extensive
review of the theoretical and empirical literature, Professor Ramstetter addresses these
issues using an econometric approach under various assumptions he derives from the
literature. He is able to identify a tendency for MNCs from Europe, Japan, and the United
States to have higher labor productivity and wages than local firms, though the link is not
strong. In fact, the relationship between labor productivity/wages and foreign ownership
shares/nationality is generally weak in the manufacturing sector. His extensive treatment of
these issues includes an exhaustive review of the data and statistical problems associated
with trying to capture the productivity effects in particular, and in the behavior of Triad
(US, EU, and Japanese) firms in Asia.
3. Lessons for Asia from the EU?
Europe is an important trading partner for Asia, but does that make it an important
example? When we initiated this project we asked our contributors to underscore
applicable lessons for Asia from Europe. Instead they tended to explain why lessons
derived from European experience are inapplicable in an Asian context. This tendency is
most evident in the essay by Jim Angresano. Using an institutionalist approach, Angresano
explains how patterns of integration in Europe and Asia are sensitively dependent upon
contextual factors. Even controlling for difference in the structure of the world economy as
it has evolved over the past half century, it remains clear that the countries of Europe and of
Asia remain contextually specific, that the problems they face are in many senses unique,
and that the solutions which would fit within existing institutional frameworks are highly
idiosyncratic. By implication, any attempt to transfer a European model for integration to
Asia (or the reverse) would end in failure. Far from offering a set menu of economic
advantages, such institutional transplantation would only succeed in generating new and
unexpected problems. Hence both Asia and Europe are advised to continue along their own
developmental trajectories, using integration on an ad hoc or specifically tailored basis to
solve problems, as they actually exist in these different regions of the global economy.
Angresano’s argument may overstate the case for a range of important lessons from
Europe for Asia—an issue to which we will return in the next section. Nevertheless, his
argument is important for two reasons. First, by emphasizing the importance of historical
context, Angresano underscores a central motivation that many in Europe seem to have
forgotten with the passage of time. European integration was an economic instrument to
solve a political problem—common markets to end the threat of war. There were many
advocates of integration who emphasized the economic benefits, to be sure. However, the
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political determination to end the threat of war made an important contribution to the
success of the project. Moreover, we could extend this argument to explain some of the
more idiosyncratic features of the European project, such as the common agricultural
policy (CAP) or even the single currency. In so doing, it becomes easier to understand why
major policies are undertaken despite the fact that their direct economic benefits remain
hotly disputed.
The second reason Angresano’s argument is important is that it highlights the relation-
ship between diversity and acceptance. It is not enough that European integration has had to
contend with an ever increasingly-diverse array of member states (and the even more
diverse arrays of problems which they brought with them). Increasingly, European
integration has had to gain some measure of popular acceptance among the member
states as well. Indeed, if anything, the challenge of legitimating integration for different
constituencies in different countries has proven to be even more complex than the
challenge of developing common institutions to the requirements of diverse member
states. Angresano suggests that this challenge of legitimation is best tackled piecemeal.
Institutions reflect underlying values; therefore, institutional differences between countries
reflect value differences as well. By implication, any attempt to transpose European forms
of integration into an Asian context is not only unlikely to work, it is also unlikely to garner
popular acceptance. To the extent that they exist, European ‘lessons’ for Asia should be
expected to prove both unworkable and unpopular.
Again Angresano’s position may overstate the case, at least when confronted with
specific examples. However, it provides a strong indictment of any easy assumption that
patterns of integration are value-neutral. Hence the difference between Europe’s ‘closed
regionalism’ and Asian ‘open regionalism’ is more than simply a function of changes in the
global economy and reflects perhaps an underlying cultural homogeneity in Europe that
does not exist elsewhere.
The paper by Craig Parsons and J. David Richardson approaches the question of
legitimation from a different tack. Rather than focusing on the value content of specific
institutions, they ask whether both Europe and Asia hold a similar regard for procedural
democracy and whether integration in both regions is sufficiently bolstered by democratic
procedures. Their prior is that so long as integration is democratic, it will also be legitimate.
In turn, this legitimacy is critical to the sustainability of market integration.
Parsons and Richardson focus their analysis on the experience of the US as well as the
EU. They argue that the way forward in Asia relies on the development of centralized
regulatory and judicial institutions capable of facilitating both market integration and
dispute resolution. These institutions are not ‘likely’ to be developed in Asia, but then again
there were important historical moments within which it was unlikely that such institutions
would be developed in Europe (or the United States) either. In this way, the European
Union does not offer a model because of its relative success at integration. Rather, the
European Union was successful at integration because it adopted a procedurally demo-
cratic model. This interpretation is reassuring insofar as it provides a window on the
challenge facing the European Union of today. Should the people of Europe lose faith in the
democratic character of European institutions, the result would be a loss of perceived
legitimacy for the process of integration as a whole (Jones, 2002). The lessons derived by
Parsons and Richardson are important for Europe as well as for Asia.
E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842 839
Parsons and Richardson provide a useful corrective for the excessively fragmented view
of contextual specificity provided by Angresano. However, they overstate the need for
centralization along either US or EU lines. Even if we accept the need for legitimation to
operate through procedural democracy, there is no reason to extend that claim to imply that
procedural democracy and formal integration should operate at the same levels of
aggregation. On the contrary, there are strong reasons to believe that procedural democracy
should be local (where the individual can most easily identify with political processes)
while formal integration should be multinational (in order to internalize, or capture, the
many externalities of market institutions and processes). Indeed, it is possible to push this
argument sufficiently to escape the conflation of procedural democracy and political
legitimation, at least in terms of relations between individuals and the state. Instead, all that
matters is that the individual accepts the state as legitimate (according to whatever formula
for legitimation predominates in the local context) and that the interests of the state are not
sacrificed through processes of integration. People may benefit from integration, but states
and governments drive the process (Moravcsik, 2002). These states may choose to establish
centralized regulatory and judicial authorities. But they may also innovate along different
lines. Indeed, such innovation may be critical to policy success.
Mary Farrell provides a good example of centralized policymaking gone awry. Her
article examines the role of the European Union’s regional and structural funds in
mitigating income disparities across member states. These funds were created as a result
successive enlargements of the European Community—to Great Britain, Ireland, and
Denmark in 1973, to Greece in 1981, and to Spain and Portugal in 1986. The explicit
intention behind the regional and structural funds was to make it easier for an ever more
diverse membership to adapt to the demands of the common market. In this sense, the
possible implications for adapting a European model to Asia are explicit: if Asia is simply a
more diverse form of Europe, then such facilitating measures can only be assumed to have a
greater importance, particularly for the advocates of institutional centralization (although,
admittedly, not for Parsons and Richardson).
As Farrell illustrates using the examples of Ireland and Spain, however, the problem is
that the EU’s regional and structural funds have not facilitated adaptation to the single
market. On the contrary, the effect of these funds had either been market distorting or
greatly overwhelmed by domestic policies. Her findings are not wholly negative. She does
suggest that such redistributive policies make it easier for politicians to ‘sell’ integration in
poorer countries. Nevertheless, the public relations value of such transfers among net
recipient countries is surely offset by the cost of selling them in those countries which are
net contributors. Here Angresano’s concern for contextual specificity again becomes
important. Would Germany have been willing to finance EU transfers were it not for
that country’s special history in Europe? It is doubtful. And it is even more doubtful that a
similar benefactor can be recruited for other regions in the world and particularly for Asia.
Farrell’s article is interesting not only insofar as it debunks at least one potential lesson
for Asia from Europe (about the utility of union-wide redistribution), but also in that it
demonstrates the exhaustion of the old European model for integration. In this sense,
Farrell overlaps with Parsons and Richardson: her analysis suggests that the European
Union has as much, if not more, to learn from European experience. Sergio Rossi’s analysis
of euro–area enlargement supports a similar view. Rossi considers whether it would be wise
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for new countries joining the European Union to attempt to adhere to the same ‘con-
vergence’ criteria for participating in the single European currency (the euro) that were set
down for the original member states at the start of the 1990s. These criteria have three focal
points: the maintenance of exchange rate stability; the achievement of relative nominal
targets for inflation and interest rates (which should converge to within one-to-two
percentage points of the three best performers with respect to price stability); and the
observance of absolute reference values for ‘excessive’ fiscal deficits and outstanding
public debt (3 and 60% of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively). Rossi argues that
attempts to meet these targets will impose real economic costs on the accession countries.
In turn, these economic costs will have an adverse effect on public opinion toward
European integration.
The implications of Rossi’s argument for Asia are not readily apparent—primarily
because monetary integration in Asia remains only in the (uncertain) distant future.
However, too literal a reading of this case study in prospective policy failure misses
the point. Rossi makes it clear that whatever the advantages of monetary integration, these
are likely to be overwhelmed by a too rigid application of the convergence criteria. A
similar point applies within the monetary union, where the member states are now wrestling
with the need to reform (or reinterpret) the stability and growth pact. Taken together, these
controversies surrounding Europe’s economic and monetary union point to the need for
integration to be flexible over time as well as across countries (Jones, 2003). Hence while we
might be tempted to resist the excessive idiosyncrasy implied by Angresano’s concern for
contextual specificity, there is no doubt but that both Europe and Asia face an unending
challenge in reconciling the tension between common institutions and diverse member
states.
4. Integration and accommodation
If there are enduring lessons from Europe for Asia, they lie in the area of process and not
in the application of specific policies or institutions. Here Angresano is in agreement with
Parsons and Richardson—as are Farrell and Rossi. What has mattered most in Europe has
been the willingness of European policymakers to accommodate differences across time
and across member states. Integration has succeeded where policymakers have been able
and willing to adapt. It has failed where they have refused to recognize the necessity for
change. This is true both in terms of specific institutions and, more important, in terms of
how institutions are created and how they are reformed.
The history of European integration is a story of evolution across policy modes. It starts
with an emphasis on uniformity. The Monnet–Schuman method that was launched with the
proposal to form a coal and steel community in the early 1950s. That method focuses on the
introduction of common policies and common institutions for application across the
European Community as a whole, and it predominated until the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Thereafter, the member states of Europe accepted the need to complement the Monnet–
Schuman method with a new approach to policymaking based on the mutual recognition of
differences across countries. This new approach was embodied in the 1987 Single
European Act, and it lay the foundation for the completion of the single internal market.
E. Jones, M.G. Plummer / Journal of Asian Economics 14 (2004) 829–842 841
Integration continued to include the elaboration of common positions, but the emphasis had
clearly shifted in favor of the acceptance of differences across countries as well.
The European Council summit at Lisbon in March 2000 brought a further change in the
mode of integration. Rather than accepting the inevitability of difference despite the
existence of common institutions, the Lisbon strategy starts from the assumption that
member states are different and so provides procedures for tackling diverse challenges in
the common interest. The goal of the Lisbon strategy is not to homogenize Europe’s
member states and neither is it to encourage further differentiation. Rather, the objective of
the strategy is to ensure that differences across the member states do not undermine the
functioning of the EU as a whole (Jones, 2001).
How successful the Lisbon strategy is at achieving this objective remains to be seen.
However, given that the ever increasing diversity of the European Union, it is clear that
some strategy for managing the consequences of difference is necessary for integration to
continue. As Europe enlarges, the pressure to accommodate difference can only be
expected to continue. In this way, the Europe of the future is likely to yield more direct
comparisons with Asia than the Europe of the past.
Acknowledgements
The editors would like to thank the past and present directors of the SAIS Bologna
Center of the Johns Hopkins University, Professor Robert Evans and Ambassador Marisa
Lino, for their support of this project. Thanks is also due to ICSEAD for co-sponsoring the
workshop at which these papers were first discussed. Despite the strong support of these
institutions, readers should know that any arguments or opinions expressed in these papers
are personal and appertain only to the authors and not their affiliations. On more personal
level, the editors would like to thank Daniel Gould, Fiona Stewart, and (particularly)
Stefanie Weitz for their assistance at various stages in the editorial process. Finally, and
most important, we would like to thank the editor of the Journal of Asian Economics,
Professor Jan Dutta, for his support and encouragement. The usual disclaimer applies.
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