europe credit markets update –2q 2020 - s&p global

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Europe Credit Markets Update – 2Q 2020 Sarah Limbach, Economist – Credit Markets Research [email protected] Sundaram Iyer, Senior Analyst – Research [email protected] Sudeep Kesh, Head of Credit Markets Research [email protected]

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Page 1: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe Credit Markets Update – 2Q 2020

Sarah Limbach, Economist – Credit Markets [email protected]

Sundaram Iyer, Senior Analyst – [email protected]

Sudeep Kesh, Head of Credit Markets [email protected]

Page 2: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Financing ConditionsHighlights

Page 3: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe Financing | Limited Risk Aversion

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Note: Data as of June 23, 2020. “Europe” includes the following countries: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Slovenia, Luxembourg, San Marino, Monaco, Malta, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Slovak Republic, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. Source: S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

– European spreads fell substantially from their peak during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID19 peak in March, thanks to swift and important fiscal and monetary responses. Spreads for European speculative-grade issuers increased considerably, as high uncertainties around the health and economic outlook exacerbated vulnerabilities in credit markets. At this year’s high, European spec-grade spreads were nearly three times—around 530 basis points (bps) above the level at the beginning of the year.

– Nevertheless, the recent peak in spreads was less than 40% of what was seen during the GFC. More timely and stronger monetary and fiscal responses, notably the ECB’s €1.3 trillion pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) reassured investors and calmed markets. Consequently, spreads for speculative-grade decreased more than 320 bps by mid-June.

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Europe Investment-Grade Europe Speculative-Grade

GFC Median GFC High Beginning of 2020 COVID High Most Recent(bps)

Page 4: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | Corporate Issuance

4Data as of June 16, 2020. Data including both Financials and Non-Financials. Source: S&P Global Ratings; Thomson Reuters.

– Investment-grade issuance overtook 2019 level in April. Issuance picked up strongly in April following the ECB’s announcement of PEPP on March 18. This was mainly driven by investment-grade issuance, which surged in April from March.

– Speculative-grade issuance remains close to, but below its 2019 level on the back of muted activity in March.

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Page 5: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Corporate Issuance| Europe

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Data of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings; Thomson Financial.

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Page 6: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe Corporate Issuance| By Market

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YTD through June for years 2016-2019. *Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research; Thomson Reuters.

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Page 7: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Trends and OutlooksSummary

Page 8: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe| COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

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Number of negative rating actions by week since Feb. 3. Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings

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COVID-19 / Oil Price Rating Actions By WeekDowngrade Downgrade + CW Change OL Change CreditWatch Negative

Page 9: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe| COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions By Sector

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– Speculative-grade dominance. More than half of the negative rating actions in Europe have been on spec-grade issuers.

– Banks, insurance, and sovereigns were the sectors that didn’t see any ratings actions in the speculative-grade space.

Number in parenthesis signifies total number of negative rating actions in the sector since Feb. 3. Media and entertainment excludes entities within Hotels and gaming. Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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Aerospace and defense (5)Automotive (28)

Banks (74)Building materials (8)

Business and consumer services…Capital goods (42)

Chemicals (19)Commercial and professional…

Consumer products (27)Energy (15)

Health care (10)Homebuilders and developers (1)

Hotels and gaming (12)Insurance (3)

Media and entertainment (25)Metals and mining (3)

NBFI (13)Real estate (16)

Retailing (31)Sovereign (8)

Technology (11)Telecom (3)

Transportation (28)Transportation infra (6)

Utilities (5)

% Of Speculative-Grade Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions% Of Speculative-Grade Downgrades

Page 10: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

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Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

European banks have the highest count of entities with a negative outlook or placed on CreditWatch due to Covid-19. This is mainly due to their exposure to vulnerable sectors. Nevertheless, due to their indirect exposure to the pandemic’s economic impact, downgrade pressure is less immediate than in other sectors. As a result, the sector has seen comparably few rating actions.

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COVID-19 / Oil Price Rating Actions By SectorCount of Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions Count of Downgrades

Page 11: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

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– Europe saw the most downgrades in April following the surge in CreditWatch and outlook changes in March. While downgrade counts in May and June clearly decreased, the record number of outlook changes in April still reflect vulnerability in European credit markets.

– The U.K . (52) and France (24) are the European countries that saw most downgrades between March and May.

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to May 26, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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COVID-19 / Oil Price Rating Actions By MonthDowngrade Downgrade + CW Change OL Change CreditWatch Negative

Page 12: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | Rating Distribution

Data as of June 16, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Almost half of the European nonfinancial corporates are rated speculative-grade. Consumer products, media and entertainment and health care are the sectors with the highest count of single-B rated issuers.

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Aerospace & DefenseAutomotive

BankCapital Goods

Chemicals, Packaging, & Environmental…Consumer Products

DiversifiedNonBank Financial Institutions

Forest Products & Building MaterialsHealth Care

High TechnologyHomebuilders/Real Estate Co.

InsuranceMedia and Entertainment

Metals, Mining, & SteelOil & Gas

Retail/RestaurantsSovereign

TelecommunicationsTransportation

Utilities

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC & Lower

Page 13: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Downgrade Potential | Outlook And CreditWatch Distribution By Sector

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– European banks have asignificant negative bias but no issuers on CreditWatch negative. This translates to a less immediate downgrade potential. This is due to the sector’s mostly indirect exposure to the pandemic’s economic impact, rather due to its exposure to vulnerable sectors.

Data as of June 16, 2020 and exclude sovereign. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source : S&P Global Ratings Research.

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Negative CreditWatch% Negative Outlook%

Page 14: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | Downgrade Potential By Sector

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Automotive, leisure, lodging and entertainment, and transportation sectors have the highest downgrade potential in Europe

Data as of June 16, 2020 and include sectors with more than five issuers only; excludes Sovereign. Media and entertainment excludes entities within Hotels and gaming. Source : S&P Global Ratings Research.

– The sectors with the most downgrade potential are those most exposed to the economic fallout caused by COVID-19 and social distancing measures aiming to reduce its spread.

– Automotive, media and entertainment (mostly subsectors leisure and lodging), as well as transportation are the hardest hit in Europe.

– The sectors’ vulnerability is reflected by the high negative bias, far above the five year-average in most sectors.

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Automotive (28)

Banks (74)

Business and consumer…

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Chemicals (19)

Consumer products (27)

Energy (15)

Health care (10)

Hotels and gaming (12)

Media and entertainment (25)

NBFI (13)

Real estate (16)

Retailing (31)

Technology (11)

Transportation (28)

% Of Speculative-Grade Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions

% Of Speculative-Grade Downgrades

Page 15: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Europe | Current Vs Historic Downgrade Potentials

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Med&Ent – Media & Entertainment, Auto - Automotive, MM&S - Metals, Mining & Steel, ConsPrd – Consumer Products, Ret/Res – Retail/ Restaurants, FP&BM –Forest Products & Building Materials, HiTech – High Technology, Transp - Transportation, CapGds – Capital Goods, Utils - Utilities, Aer&D – Aerospace & Defense, FinInst - Financial Institutions, Teleco – Telecommunications, Div - Diversified, CP&ES – Chemicals, Packaging & Environmental Services, OilG – Oil & Gas, HCare -Health Care, Ins - Insurance, HomeRE – Homebuilders/Real Estate Co., Sov – Sovereign. OL- Outlook; CW-- CreditWatch. Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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Identifying Downgrade Potential Across Sectors -Europe

Page 16: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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16

Europe | Outlook And CreditWatch Distribution

Data as of June 16, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings

About 47% of the speculative-grade issuers face downgrade risks while 56% of the risky credits are vulnerable to credit deterioration

Of the riskiest ‘B-’ and below categories, similar to the total picture, leisure, lodging and entertainment as well as banks and consumer products carry the highest count of negative outlooks and placements on CreditWatch Negative

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Consumer productsBankUtility

Media/entertainmentHealth care

Capital goodsInsurance

CP&ESHome/RE

High technologyTelecommunicationsFinancial institutions

ForestOil & Gas

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CreditWatch Negative Negative Outlook Stable

Positive Outlook CreditWatch Positive

Page 17: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Action | Fallen Angels and Potential Fallen Angels

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– 10 Fallen Angels. Among the 10 fallen angels in Europe this year, three each are from the U.K. and Italy. Transportation is the sector that counts most fallen angels in Europe (3).

– Potential fallen angels rise. The U.K. has the most potential fallen angels. The sectors with the highest counts are financial institutions as well as media and entertainment, where mostly corporates impacted by COVID-19 related social distancing measures are on our list.

– For more information, see The Potential Fallen Angels Tally Reaches A New High At 126, published June 17, 2020.

Data as of June 16, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

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Potential Fallen Angels Count (Left) Debt Amount Affected ($ Bil.)

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Page 18: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Action | Corporate Fallen Angels With Highest Debt

Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Date Issuer To From Sector CountryRated debt amount ($ Mil.)

10/9/2001 Railtrack PLC CC A Transportation United Kingdom $3,652

8/14/2002 Vivendi Universal S.A. BB BBB- Media & Entertainment France $16,635

12/9/2003 Parmalat Finanziaria SpA B+ BBB- Consumer Products Italy $7,177

4/19/2004 Adecco S.A. BB+ BBB- Media & Entertainment Switzerland $1,987

10/25/2005Allgemeine Hypothekenbank Rheinboden AG (BHW Holding AG) BB+ BBB- Bank Germany $3,908

1/26/2006 TDC A/S BB BBB+ Telecommunications Denmark $4,587

11/21/2007 BAA Ltd. BB- BBB+ Transportation United Kingdom $10,635

10/24/2008 HeidelbergCement AG BB+ BBB- Forest Products & Building Materials Germany $4,822

2/13/2009 Fortis SA/NV (Fortis Group) BB BBB- Bank Belgium $23,237

4/27/2010 Alpha Bank A.E. BB BBB Bank Greece $29,217

2/2/2011 Allied Irish Banks PLC BB BBB Bank Ireland $38,978

8/2/2012 ArcelorMittal BB+ BBB- Metals, Mining & Steel Luxembourg $23,824

11/14/2013 Telecom Italia SpA BB+ BBB- Telecommunications Italy $48,302

5/15/2014 AerCap Holdings N.V. BB+ BBB- Transportation Netherlands $16,800

1/14/2015 Tesco PLC BB+ BBB- Retail/Restaurants United Kingdom $17,195

2/18/2016 Anglo American PLC BB BBB- Metals, Mining & Steel United Kingdom $14,897

7/27/2017 Seagate Technology plc BB+ BBB- High Technology Ireland $4,950

5/9/2018 TDC A/S (DKT Holdings ApS) B+ BBB- Telecommunications Denmark $3,601

6/13/2019 Novomatic AG BB+ BBB- Media & Entertainment Austria $792

4/9/2020 Renault S.A. BB+ BBB- Automotive France $24,979

Page 19: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Action| Rating Changes From 'B-' To 'CCC' Top 20 By Debt Amount (YTD)

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Debt volume includes subsidiaries. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of June 16, 2020; includes sovereigns. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Rating Date Issuer Country Sector Rating To Rating FromDebt Amount (US $ Mil)

3/30/2020 HNVR Midco Ltd. United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $2,670

4/1/2020 Kirk Beauty One GmbH Germany Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $2,543

4/2/2020 Weatherford International plc Ireland Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $2,490

4/20/2020 Diamond (BC) B.V. NetherlandsChemicals, Packaging & Environmental Services CCC+ B- $2,447

3/17/2020Casablanca Global Intermediate Holdings L.P.

British Virgin Islands Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,900

4/9/2020 Swissport Group S.a.r.l Luxembourg Transportation CCC B- $1,803

5/28/2020 Europcar Mobility Group S.A. France Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,703

4/14/2020 Richmond UK Holdco Ltd. United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,684

3/31/2020 Vallourec France Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $1,603

3/20/2020Hurtigruten Group AS (Silk Holdings Sarl) Norway Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,129

5/29/2020 Technicolor S.A. France High Technology CCC- B- $1,097

5/18/2020 L1R HB Finance Ltd United Kingdom Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $995

3/26/2020 Turnstone Midco 2 Ltd United Kingdom Health Care CCC B- $736

6/15/2020 Al Mistral Holdco Ltd. United Kingdom Transportation CCC+ B- $688

3/25/2020 EnQuest PLC United Kingdom Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $650

4/1/2020 Maxeda DIY Group B.V. Netherlands Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $579

6/9/2020 Pro.Gest SpA Italy Forest Products & Building Materials CCC+ B- $566

4/22/2020 Takko Fashion S.a.r.l. Luxembourg Consumer Products CCC+ B- $555

3/24/2020 Thame and London Ltd United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $518

3/4/2020 Travelex Holdings Ltd. United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC B- $515

Page 20: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Summary| Sovereign In June

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YTD data as of June 16, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Country Rating Outlook 5 Year CDS Spread Median Rating Financials (OLCW) Median Rating Non - Financials(OLCW)Austria AA+ Stable A ABelgium AA Stable BBB+Bulgaria BBB Stable B+Czech Republic AA- Stable BBB-Denmark AAA Stable BBBEstonia AA- Positive B+Finland AA+ Stable A- BBBFrance AA Stable A BBB-Germany AAA Stable A+ BB+Greece BB- Stable BIceland A Stable BBBIreland AA- Stable A- BBB-Italy BBB Negative BBB BB+Jersey AA- Stable B+Latvia A+ Stable BLiechtenstein AAA Stable ALithuania A+ Stable BBB-Montserrat BBB- StableNetherlands AAA Stable BBB+ BB-Norway AAA Stable A BBBPoland A- Stable A- BB+Portugal BBB Stable BBB-Romania BBB- Negative B-Slovenia AA- Stable BBB-Spain A Stable A- BB+Sweden AAA Stable A- BBB+Switzerland AAA Stable A BBB+United Kingdom AA Stable A B+

Page 21: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Actions and DefaultsSummary

Page 22: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Action| Weakest Links and Default Rates

22

– Weakest Links. Europe has seen weakest links rise to 99 issuers (nearly 19% of the speculative-grade rated population). Weakest Links are issuers rated ‘B-’ and below with a negative outlook or on CreditWatch with negative implications; they typically have a default rate eight times that of speculative-grade issuers more broadly.

– For more information, see More Than One-Quarter Of Speculative-Grade Issuers Are Weakest Links published May 14, 2020.

Default Rates as of May 2020. Weakest links and speculative-grade data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

Europe’s Weakest Links rise near record highs, pointing to higher likely default rates in the near term

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008

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020

Weakest Links Counts (Left)

Weakest Links Share Of Speculative-Grade Population (Right)

Europe 12 Month Trailing Speculative -Grade Default Rate (Right)

Page 23: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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23

* Default tally data as of June 16, 2020. Default Rates as of May 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®

Ratings Action| Corporate Defaults By Reason & Default Rate Trend

– Rising Default Rates Defaults this year have already overtaken the previous four years’ count.

– For more information, see More Than One-Quarter Of Speculative-Grade Issuers Are Weakest Linkspublished May 14, 2020.

0%

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Missed principal/interest payments Bankruptcy-Related

Regulatory Intervention Distressed Exchanges / Restructuring

Confidential

C

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*

Default Tally (Left)

Europe 12 Month Trailing Speculative -Grade Default Rate (Right)

Page 24: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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24

Ratings Transitions | Transitions Rates

Rating BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC/C DBBB- 74.76 9.71 2.91 0 0 0 0 0 0BB+ 8.11 66.22 10.81 5.41 0 0 0 0 0BB 0 1.52 65.15 15.15 1.52 3.03 4.55 0 0BB- 0 0 2.78 61.11 15.28 6.94 0 2.78 0B+ 0 0 0 1 53 20 9 5 1B 0 0 0 0 0.41 55.74 23.36 9.02 0.41B- 0 0 0 0 0 6.82 51.14 27.27 3.41CCC/C 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.94 35.29 41.18

Rating BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC/C DBBB- 68.7 6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0 0.2 0.1BB+ 12.8 60.7 9.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0BB 1.5 11.6 60.9 7.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2BB- 0.4 1.1 11.5 57.5 11.7 3 0.6 0.1 0.7B+ 0.2 0.7 2.3 9.6 56.5 12 2.3 1.4 0.9B 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 6.9 61.6 8.8 3 1.7B- 0 0 0 0.6 1.2 10.6 52.6 14 5.6CCC/C 0 0 0 0 0.3 1.7 11 41.3 26.4

Transition Rates as of May 2020. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®

One Year Transitions April 2019 to April 2020

One Year Transitions Since 1981

– Stability. Issuers rated ‘B+’ and below were less stable over the year until April compared to the historical average. The major part of movements is to a lower rating. This reflects the vulnerability in European credit markets, mostly on the back of the economic impact of COVID-19.

– Defaults are higher in the ‘CCC/C’ categories when compared to historical averages.

Page 25: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Additional Details

Page 26: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Issuance| Sovereign Top 20 Deals In 2020 By Debt Amount

26

YTD data as of June 16, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Issuer Country Market PlaceS&P Issue-Rating

S&P Sovereign Rating (as of June 16, 2020) Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil.)

5/15/2020 Republic of Italy Italy Euro Public BBB BBB 5 EUR $24,115

4/22/2020 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A 4 EUR $16,298

4/22/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A NR A 4 EUR $16,145

5/12/2020United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland U.K.

Domestic government debt NR AA 5 GBP $14,886

1/23/2018 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A 1 EUR $12,244

1/23/2018 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A BBB+ A 1 EUR $12,237

1/15/2019 Republic of Italy ItalyEuro market public issue NR BBB 1 EUR $11,469

1/22/2019 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A 1 EUR $11,371

1/15/2019 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A BBB BBB 1 EUR $11,369

1/22/2019 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A A- A 1 EUR $11,345

1/14/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A NR A 1 EUR $11,099

4/21/2020 Republic of Italy ItalyEuro market public issue NR BBB 4 EUR $10,873

4/20/2020 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A NR BBB 4 EUR $10,825

3/24/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A A A 3 EUR $10,755

1/10/2018 Republic of Italy ItalyEuro market public issue NR BBB 1 EUR $10,748

1/10/2018 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A BBB BBB 1 EUR $10,725

3/24/2020 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A 3 EUR $10,695

2/11/2020 Republic of Italy ItalyEuro market public issue NR BBB 2 EUR $9,843

2/11/2020 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A NR BBB 2 EUR $9,775

4/29/2020Federal Republic of Germany Germany Domestic auction NR AAA 4 EUR $9,245

Page 27: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Issuance| Financial and Non-Financial Top 20 Deals

27

YTD data as of June 16, 2020; excludes Sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table is for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Issuer CountryMarket Place

S&P Issue-Rating

S&P Sovereign Rating (as of June 16, 2020) Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil.)

1/13/2020 EFSF Luxembourg Euro Public NR AAA 0.700% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '50 Euro $3,290

4/20/2020 EFSF Luxembourg Euro Public AA AAA Zero Cpn Zero Cpn Sr Nts due '23 Euro $3,281

3/27/2020 Credit Suisse Grp Ag Switzerland Euro Public BBB+ AAA Medium-Term Nts due '30 USD $3,000

6/17/2020 BP Capital Markets PlcUnited Kingdom Euro Public BBB AA 0% Perpetual Gtd Sub Bonds Euro $2,811

6/17/2020 BP Capital Markets PlcUnited Kingdom Euro Public BBB AA 0% Perpetual Gtd Sub Bonds Euro $2,530

5/26/2020 Total Capital International France U.S. Public A+ AA 3.127% Gtd Global Nts due '50 USD $2,500

6/17/2020 BP Capital Markets PlcUnited Kingdom U.S. Public BBB AA 0% Perpetual Gtd Sub Bonds USD $2,500

6/17/2020 BP Capital Markets PlcUnited Kingdom U.S. Public BBB AA 0% Perpetual Gtd Sub Bonds USD $2,500

3/25/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A AA 4.950% Global Notes due '30 USD $2,497

4/14/2020 UBS AG LondonUnited Kingdom EURO/144A A+ AA 1.750% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '22 USD $2,497

4/1/2020 L-Bank Germany Euro Public AAA AAA 0.625% Guaranteed Bds due '22 USD $2,494

3/10/2020 EFSF Luxembourg Euro Public AA AAA 0.400% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '26 Euro $2,362

4/1/2020Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA/NV Belgium U.S. Public A- AA 4.500% Gtd Global Nts due '50 USD $2,248

1/7/2020 ABN AMRO Bank NV Netherlands Euro Public NR AAA 0.375% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '35 Euro $2,221

3/26/2020 Credit Suisse Grp Ag Switzerland Euro Public BBB+ AAA Fix/Flt MTNs due '26 Euro $2,198

3/26/2020 Barclays PLCUnited Kingdom Euro Public BBB AA 3.375% Senior Notes due '25 Euro $2,198

4/14/2020 UBS AG LondonUnited Kingdom Euro Public A+ AA 0.750% Sr Med Term Nts due '23 Euro $2,191

4/1/2020Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH France Euro Public AAA AA 0.125% Sr Sec Bonds due '24 Euro $2,190

4/2/2020Nederlandse Waterschapsbank Netherlands Euro Public NR AAA Zero Cpn Zero Cpn Sr Nts due '23 Euro $2,183

1/30/2020 Credit Suisse AG Switzerland U.S. Public A+ AAA Sr Unsecurd Nts due '22 USD $2,000

Page 28: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Ratings Action| Top 20 By Debt Amount (YTD)

28

Data as of June 16, 2020, exclude Sovereign, and includes only latest rating changes. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Rating Date Issuer Country Sector Rating ToRating From Action Type

Debt Amount (US $ Mil)

5/13/2020 Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A./N.V. Belgium Consumer Products BBB+ A- Downgrade $155,580

5/13/2020 HSBC Holdings PLC United Kingdom Bank A- A Downgrade $142,417

4/1/2020 Deutsche Telekom AG Germany Telecommunications BBB BBB+ Downgrade $78,354

3/26/2020 Daimler AG Germany Automotive BBB+ A- Downgrade $72,125

3/26/2020 BMW AG Germany Automotive A A+ Downgrade $65,114

4/24/2020 ENGIE SA France Utility BBB+ A- Downgrade $35,276

4/7/2020 GlaxoSmithKline PLC United Kingdom Health Care A A+ Downgrade $31,395

3/27/2020 Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE France Homebuilders/Real Estate Co. A- A Downgrade $30,649

4/23/2020 Commerzbank AG Germany Bank BBB+ A- Downgrade $27,742

6/11/2020 Deutsche Bahn AG Germany Utility AA- AA Downgrade $26,834

4/9/2020 Renault S.A. France Automotive BB+ A- Downgrade $24,979

5/8/2020 Allergan plc Ireland Health Care BBB+ BBB Upgrade $20,236

1/13/2020 Atlantia SpA Italy Utility BB- BBB- Downgrade $16,297

2/21/2020 NXP Semiconductors N.V. Netherlands High Technology BBB BBB- Upgrade $14,800

3/26/2020 Swedbank AB Sweden Bank A+ AA- Downgrade $14,190

1/13/2020 Abertis Infraestructuras S.A. Spain Utility BBB- BBB Downgrade $14,175

5/1/2020 EG Group Ltd. United Kingdom Consumer Products B- B Downgrade $10,443

4/20/2020 Transocean Ltd. Switzerland Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC CCC+ Downgrade $9,946

4/20/2020 Valaris plc United Kingdom Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC- CCC+ Downgrade $9,550

3/17/2020 International Game Technology Plc United Kingdom Media & Entertainment BB BB+ Downgrade $8,171

Page 29: Europe Credit Markets Update –2Q 2020 - S&P Global

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Maturing Debt | Europe Financial and Non-Financial Top 25 Deals Set To Mature Through August 2020

29

Data as of June 16, 2020 and excludes Sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table does not include China deals and data is for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Maturity Date Issuer Country Sector Market Place

S&P Issue -Rating Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Million)

7/10/2013 7/17/2020 EFSF Luxembourg Finance Company Euro Public AA+ 1.625% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 6452.62

6/24/2014 7/15/2020 Wind Acquisition Finance SA Luxembourg Telecommunications EURO/144A BB 4.000% Gtd Sen Sec Nts due '20 EUR 2857.14

7/20/2016 7/25/2020 Teva Pharm Fin Netherlands II Netherlands Healthcare Euro Public BBB 0.375% Guaranteed Bds due '20 EUR 1920.03

6/24/2014 7/15/2020 Wind Acquisition Finance SA Luxembourg Telecommunications EURO/144A BB 4.750% Sr Secured Nts due '20 US 1900

7/14/2005 7/21/2020 Network Rail LtdUnited Kingdom Transportation Euro Public AAA 4.625% Fxd/Straight Bd due '20 STG 1752.04

6/24/2015 6/30/2020 UBS AG Switzerland Banks Euro Public A 1.125% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1677.15

8/19/2013 8/27/2020 Svenska Handelsbanken AB Sweden Banks Euro Public AA- 2.250% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1658.05

7/15/2015 7/22/2020 Lloyds Bank PLCUnited Kingdom Banks Euro Public NR 0.500% Fxd/Straight Bd due '20 EUR 1639.75

1/21/2016 8/28/2020Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH France Banks Euro Public AAA 0.125% Fxd/Straight Bd due '20 EUR 1622.44

7/8/2010 7/16/2020 Intesa Sanpaolo Spa Italy Banks Euro Public A 5.150% Mdm-Trm Sub Nts due '20 EUR 1582.35

5/13/2013 7/15/2020 Unicredit SpA Italy Banks Euro Public BBB Mdm-Trm Sub Nts due '20 EUR 1557.63

6/21/2010 6/29/2020 Nordea AB Sweden Banks Euro Public AA- 4.000% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1528.66

7/21/2010 7/28/2020 Waha Aerospace BV Govt Gtd Netherlands Finance Company EURO/144A AA 3.925% Gtd Sr Notes due '20 US 1500

8/17/2010 8/24/2020 Royal Bank of Scotland (Bond)United Kingdom Banks U.S. Public A+ 5.625% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US 1499.21

8/5/2010 8/12/2020 HSBC Bank PLCUnited Kingdom Banks EURO/144A AA 4.125% Senior Notes due '20 US 1491.02

6/25/2015 7/1/2020 Capgemini SA France Financial Institution Euro Public BBB 1.750% Senior Bonds due '20 EUR 1398.19

7/12/2013 7/20/2020 GE Capital European Funding Ireland Financial Institution Euro Public AA+ 2.250% Gtd Mdm-Trm Nts due '20 EUR 1302.26

4/24/2013 6/30/2020 Unicredit SpA Italy Banks Euro Public BBB+ Mdm-Trm Sub Nts due '20 EUR 1301.58

4/24/2013 6/30/2020 Unicredit SpA Italy Banks Euro Public BBB+ Mdm-Trm Sub Nts due '20 EUR 1301.58

7/2/2013 7/9/2020Nederlandse Waterschapsbank Netherlands Financial Institution Euro Public AAA 1.750% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1292.45

7/9/2010 7/20/2020 Banque Federative Du Credit France Banks Euro Public A+ 4.125% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1257.16

6/17/2010 6/24/2020 Total Capital SA France Integrated Oil & Gas U.S. Public AA 4.450% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US 1245.01

7/15/2015 7/21/2020 Imperial Brands Finance PLCUnited Kingdom Consumer Products Foreign Public BBB 2.950% Gtd Mdm-Trm Nts due '20 US 1236.46

6/17/2010 6/24/2020 Deutsche Bank AG Germany Banks Euro Public A 5.000% Mdm-Trm Sub Nts due '20 EUR 1234.12

7/26/2012 8/4/2020 Heineken NV Netherlands Consumer Products Euro Public BBB+ 2.125% Medium-Term Nts due '20 EUR 1225.81