TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

GENERAL ECONOMIC GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

by by Kit PrinsKit PrinsChief, Timber SectionChief, Timber SectionUN/ECE Trade DivisionUN/ECE Trade Division

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Structure of presentation

• Western Europe and North America

• Eastern Europe and CIS

• Housing

• Source: UN/ECE Economic Analysis Division

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Western Europe:

• “the short term economic prospects for western Europe are currently better than at any time over the past decade” (UN/ECE July 200)

• Export-led “virtuous circle”

• Improved price competitivity due to decline in euro

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

USA

• Expansion longest on record (since 1991), continues: 2000 will be fourth successive year with growth > 4%

• Looking for a “soft landing”, but strong growth continues

• downside risks: unsustainable current account deficit, share price bubble, oil price

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Transition economies• Vigorous growth in 2000, due to import

demand (W.Europe), rising commodity prices, payoff from systemic transformation

• Despite recovery, living standards still low in most countries

• CIS fastest growing sub region (+ 7.6%)

• inflation, continued growth in unemployment

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Estimated GDP growth (% p.a.):

1999 2000 2001

W. Europe 2.0 3.5 >3

E. Europe 1.4 4.6

USA 4.1 4.0 3.4

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Construction

• US housing starts August 2000 at 1.53 million. Still strong, but signs of slowdown in 2000/2001.

• W. Europe: moderate growth expected for 2000, stability in 2001

• E. Europe: Strong growth in new residential construction in both years

TIMBER COMMITTEE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth sessionFifty-eighth session

EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Thirtieth session Thirtieth session

Rome, 9-13 October 2000Rome, 9-13 October 2000

Euroconstruct forecasts for new residential construction

2000 2001

W.Europe + 2.5 +0.4

E. Europe +9.7 +11.9