european industrial & logistics market fundamentals - q2 2016
TRANSCRIPT
8.5 million sq m
JLL Supply Chain Activity Index*expected to rise to 129.0 by year end, up from 128.0 in Q2 2016 – signalling further expansion
18 million sq m could be taken-up in total in 2016, an increase of 5% YoY according to the Index forecast
but downside risks remain with uncertainty over the EU economy expected to remain high in the coming months
European Industrial & Logistics Market Fundamentals
Q2 | 2016
UK CEE Russia
44% 44% 47%
Western Europeexcl. UK
15%
H1 2016 marks strongest half-year take-up on record …
YoY
5%
… with positive momentum expected to be maintained in H2 2016
on 5yr H1 average
24%
All markets significantly up on their 5-year H1 average except for France, Hungary, Russia and Spain
% share of speculative development by geography – end Q2 2016
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JLL quarterly Industrial & Logistics analysis illustrates the current market condition and examines how it will evolve in the future.All figures are in sq m / €, based on logistics units >5,000 sq m and UK>10,000 sq mwww.jll.eu
* JLL’s Supply Chain Activity Index, a composite index of economic and supply chain variables that the EMEA Industrial & Logistics Group has constructed to forecast short-term corporate demand for logistics (distribution warehouse) space across Europe. Find out more: http://www.jll.eu/emea/en-gb/research/256/jll-supply-chain-activity-index
QoQ
11%
QoQ19%
YoY40%
on 5yr Q2 average57%
YoY
26%
80% on 5yr average
80%
H1 2016 completion volumes up YoY albeit Q2 marked the second consecutive quarter of slowing overall new space added to the market
Strongest growing occupier groups in H1 2016 (YoY)
Take-up 3PL providers / couriers
YoY13%
10.5 million sq munder construction
Significant increase of development over the quarter pushes total under construction to levels not seen since 2008. However, developments remain build-to-suit driven, with no significant impact on vacancy rates expected until the end of the year.
27%
YoY
Take-up e-commerce driven
145%
Strongly growing completion volumes in most of the smaller markets – slowing QoQ volumes driven by France and Russia; Germany slightly down
3PLs remain largest occupier group in H1 but continued alignment to omni-channel distribution models drives retail and e-commerce led activity
18 million sq m129.0
Other6%
E-commerce10%
Manufacturing20%
Third Party Logistics35%
Retail companies29%
Top performers YOY
Q2 warehousing rents QoQexcl. Russia
YoYexcl. Russia
Rental growth marginally slowing further across Europe in Q2 2016 as the majority of markets saw stable rental environments – albeit some markets saw rents finally moving higher over the quarter:
Amsterdam, Leeds, Lyon, Madrid and Rotterdam all moved up QoQ
Rental growth slowing YoY but outlook remains positive
0.6% 1.6% DublinMadridGlasgow
For more information, contact:
Alexandra TornowEMEA Industrial & Logistics [email protected]
Guy GueirardHead of EMEA Industrial & [email protected]
Ryan Loftus EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research [email protected]
… with the largest speculative exposure in Russia and CEE; UK remains the strongest market in Western Europe but speculative development reducing
Speculative development edges up further but still at low levels
of speculative warehousing space under construction at end of Q2
the highest volume since the downturn in 2009; reflecting 27% (22.6% if excluding Russia) of total under construction
2.7 million sq m