european postal markets2014 – an overview

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European postal markets 2014 an overview

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Page 1: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

European postal markets

2014 an overview

Page 2: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Index

2

Page 3: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Foreword

3

I am pleased to offer you a concise comparison of selected European mail markets and their

principal postal players. The comparison includes amongst others volume development, mail

density, quality, profitability and regulatory status.

Some conclusions. Mail volume substitution in the Netherlands is one of the highest in Europe

driven by the adaptation rate of electronic communication. Dutch mail density is however still

relatively high partly due to a moderate pricing strategy and supported by ongoing efficiency

measures. These measures are implemented in a socially responsible way: since 2006 PostNL

has helped 7600 employees to new jobs outside the company. The PostNL base rate is not

anymore one of the lowest in Europe but still below average. In 2013 we saw a steep rise in the

quality level for next day delivery to 95.9% in 2013 from below the 95% target in 2012.

I hope you will find this booklet informative.

Herna Verhagen

Page 4: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Notes

4 This page is intentionally left blank

Page 5: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Liberalisation in Europe as per 2014

Liberalised, end-to-end competition

Liberalised, competition with limitations

Liberalised, no relevant competition (less than 5%)

Volumes addressed mail in %*

34%

34%

32%

Sources: Annual Reports, Copenhagen Economics (2010), IPC, National Regulators,, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013) 5

* Figures are based on market volumes

Page 6: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Universal Service Obligation as per 2014

NL DE SE FI UK ES IT AT FR BE DK

Standard

letter post √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Bulk letters x x x x x √ √ √ √ √ √

Direct mail x x x x x x x √ √ √ √

Periodicals x x x x x x √ √ √ √ √

Non-priority

letter post x x x √ √ x x x √ √ √

Standard

parcel post √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Bulk parcels x x x x x √ x √ x √ √

Sources: IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013) 6

Page 7: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Rate comparison: single item rates

Single item rate up to 20g (D+1), DL/C6 format, CPL corrected (2014, €)

Single item rates have been corrected for the Dutch Comparative Price Level (CPL). The CPL is

the ratio of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of a country to Dutch PPP.

Note: In Spain the standard single item rate 20g is based on a D+3 service level. The D+1 rate is relatively high (€3.15) and therefore not

incorporated in this graph. Note: Deutsche Post, bpost and Poste Italiane apply a significant higher rate for a C5 format up to 20g.

Sources: OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Websites of PPO’s 7

€ 0.59 € 0.63 € 0.64 € 0.64 € 0.66 € 0.69

€ 0.74 € 0.74

€ 0.88 € 0.93

PostNord(SE)

AustrianPost

DeutschePost

PostNL La Poste bpost Royal Mail PosteItaliane

Itella PostNord(DK)

Page 8: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Rate comparison: weighted single item rates

Weighted single item rate (D+1), CPL corrected (2014, €)

Sources: OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Websites of PPO’s

Note: In Spain the standard single item rate 20g is based on a D+3 service level. The D+1 rate is relatively high (€3.15) and therefore

not incorporated in this graph.

As several countries have introduced size based single item rates, the rate comparison is based

not only on the basic 20g rate, but is weighted by the different size and weight categories as well.

8

€ 0.73 € 0.73 € 0.76 € 0.80 € 0.81 € 0.91

€ 1.00 € 1.09

€ 1.15

€ 1.53

PostNord(SE)

AustrianPost

Royal Mail La Poste PostNL Itella PostNord(DK)

bpost DeutschePost

PosteItaliane

Page 9: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Country / PPO comparison

2012

Page 10: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Volume development in Europe 2009 - 2012

Volumes addressed mail in %*

Compound annual market growth rate

> 0%

-3% to 0%

-6% to -3%

< -6%

Sources: Annual Reports, National Regulators, PostNL Team Analysis 10

* Figures are based on market volumes

25%

7%

48%

20%

Page 11: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Country comparison

Total addressed mail items in 2012 (in millions)

Addressed mail items per household in 2012

Sources: Annual Reports, Eurostat, National Regulators, PostNL Team Analysis

Germany surpassed the UK as the

largest European market in terms of

volume

The markets of Germany, the UK

and France combined add up to

two-thirds of the total addressed

mail market (in volume) of the

countries listed

Households in the UK, Sweden and

the Netherlands receive most

addressed mail items per year

In Italy a household receives 69%

less mail than in the Netherlands

In all countries, the number of

addressed mail items per household

has declined compared to 2011, with

up to 12.1% (average 5.9%)

11

685

1,060

1,650

1,993

2,645

4,173

4,411

4,577

13,721

15,675

16,700

DenmarkFinlandAustria

BelgiumSweden

NetherlandsItaly

SpainFrance

UKGermany

174

263

294

416

416

430

449

494

560

576

600

ItalySpain

DenmarkFinland

GermanyBelgiumAustriaFrance

NetherlandsSweden

UK

Page 12: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Next-day delivery

Next-day delivery (PPO) in 2012

Correos has a D+3 target of 93%, which it realises (96.3%). D+1 performance is 68.8%

Sources: Annual Reports, IPC, National Regulators, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

* PostNL reported a next-day delivery quality of 95.9% over 2013

** Royal Mail has a broken book year 2012-2013

*** bpost did not report the domestic next-day delivery quality in 2012, therefore the 2011 figure is presented. In Belgium, a quality of

service basket comprising the main single piece products of the universal service defines the level of overall delivery time to reach

(95% of the items to be delivered in time)

12

87.9% (target 85.0%)

90.4% (target 80.0%)

92.3%***

92.5%** (target 93.0%)

92.9% (target 89.0%)

93.5% (target 93.0%)

93.9%* (target 95.0%)

95.0% (target 80.0%)

95.4% (target 85.0%)

96.0% (target 95.0%)

La Poste

Itella

bpost

Royal Mail

Poste Italiane

PostNord (DK)

PostNL

Deutsche Post

PostNord (SE)

Austrian Post

Page 13: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Financial comparison Public Postal Operators

Mail revenue (PPO) (2012, in million €)

Mail revenues and EBIT of

Austrian Post, bpost, La Poste and

PostNL do not include parcels

The revenues and EBIT include

domestic and cross border

activities

The figures of PostNL exclude the

activities of the International

division

bpost and Correos did not report

their Mail EBIT

The Mail EBIT of Poste Italiane is

strongly influenced by financial

services and therefore not shown

The Mail EBIT of La Poste does

not include the net costs of

territorial presence (€621 mln)

13

Mail EBIT (PPO) (2012, in million €)

Sources: Annual Reports, PostNL Team Analysis

1,144

1,168

1,508

1,739

1,833

1,897

2,319

4,657

9,582

11,410

13,972

PostNord (DK)

Itella

Austrian Post

Correos

PostNord (SE)

bpost

PostNL

Poste Italiane

Royal Mail

La Poste

Deutsche Post

-2

74

86

91

273

313

684

1,051

PostNord (DK)

Itella

PostNL

PostNord (SE)

Austrian Post

Royal Mail

La Poste

Deutsche Post

Page 14: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Financial comparison Public Postal Operators

Mail revenue development* (PPO) 2011 - 2012

Mail revenues of Austrian Post, bpost,

La Poste and PostNL do not include

parcels

The revenues include domestic and

cross border activities

The figure of PostNL excludes the

activities of the International division

The presented developments exclude

currency effects; the figures of Royal

Mail (16.5%), PostNord SE (3.9%) and

PostNord DK (-6.2%) are higher when

currency effects are included

bpost and Correos did not report their

Mail EBIT

The Mail EBIT of Poste Italiane is

strongly influenced by financial

services and therefore not shown

The RoS of La Poste does not include

the net costs of territorial presence

(€621 mln)

14

Mail return on sales (PPO) 2012

* Difference between 2011 and 2012 mail revenues in local currency,

as a % of 2011 mail revenues

Sources: Annual Reports, PostNL Team Analysis

-10.6%

-9.9%

-9.8%

-5.2%

-1.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.3%

1.4%

8.0%

Correos

PostNord (DK)

Poste Italiane

PostNL

La Poste

PostNord (SE)

Deutsche Post

Austrian Post

bpost

Itella

Royal Mail

-0.2%

3.3%

3.7%

5.0%

6.0%

6.3%

7.5%

18.1%

PostNord (DK)

Royal Mail

PostNL

PostNord (SE)

La Poste

Itella

Deutsche Post

Austrian Post

Page 15: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Quality versus weighted postal rate

Sources: Annual Reports, National Regulators, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Websites of PPO’s, WIK (2013)

Note: The weighted postal rate is a weighted average of the CPL-corrected single item rates in the different weight and size categories.

Note: The 2011 domestic next-day delivery quality figure of bpost is taken as a best guess for the (unreported) 2012 figure.

Note: Correos is not included due to incomparability of data. Note: Average based on companies presented.

15

85%

90%

95%

100%

0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20

Royal Mail (UK)

Top end

Low end

PostNL (NL)

Austrian Post (AT)

Deutsche Post (DE)

Poste Italiane (IT)

La Poste (FR)

bpost (BE) European average

PostNord (SE)

PostNord (DK)

Domestic next-day delivery (2012)

Weighted domestic single item rate 2012 (D+1, in €, CPL corrected)

Itella (FI)

Page 16: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Return on sales (mail) versus weighted postal rate

Sources: Annual Reports, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Websites of PPO’s

Note: The weighted postal rate is a weighted average of the CPL-corrected single item rates in the different weight and size categories.

Note: Correos and Poste Italiane are not included due to incomparability or unavailability of data.

Note: The RoS of La Poste does not include the net costs of territorial presence (€621 mln). Note: Average based on companies presented.

16

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20

bpost (BE)

Top end

Low end

PostNL (NL)

Austrian Post (AT)

Deutsche Post (DE)

La Poste (FR)

Royal Mail (UK)

European average

PostNord (SE)

PostNord (DK)

RoS Mail (2012)

Weighted domestic single item rate 2012 (D+1, in €, CPL corrected)

Itella (FI)

Page 17: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Update postal operators

Page 18: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Austria

Sources: Austrian Post, bmvit, IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, RTR, WIK (2013)

Incumbent: Austrian Post (52.8% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 1.1 billion (2012)

Market characteristics

18

Challenges Effect on market

Postal law Includes a strict licensing system with de

facto requirements on labour conditions

to be the same as Austrian Post.

Postal law extremely hinders

competition in addressed market.

Letterboxes in apartment-buildings

open for competition per 1-1-2013.

Regulatory framework Weak price regulation and extra strong

regulation on licensing.

Austrian NRA has no authority to

collect compliance data from the

USP and does not do so.

Competition Last nationwide competitor, Redmail,

withdrawn from market as per 1-2-2011.

Express organisations are considered as

postal competitors.

Clients Redmail taken over by

Freiba (100% AP).

Competitors with >€1 mln sales

participate in net costs.

VAT exemption

Distortion of competition: Austrian Post is

exempt from charging VAT for Universal

Service Products, its competitors are not.

Effect should be limited with single

item USO, but it is not since USO

interpretation is extended to bulk

services.

Page 19: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Austria – Austrian Post

19 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Austrian Post, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 5,590 5,570 5,480 5,455 5,250 -3.8% -2.0%

addressed mail items (in million items) 1,890 1,770 1,680 1,655 1,650 -0.3% -2.3%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 3,700 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,600 -5.3% -1.8%

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 2,522 2,447 2,442 2,423 2,438 0.6% -0.1%

mail revenue m (in million €) 1,652 1,586 1,449 1,501 1,508 0.5% -1.7%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) 170 149 157 168 182 8.4% 6.9%

mail EBIT (operating profit) m (in million €) 269 212 216 277 273 -1.7% 8.7%

profit gf (in million €) 119 80 118 123 123 0.0% 15.6%

Workforce group FTE gf 27,002 25,921 24,969 23,369 23,181 -0.8% -3.7%

mail FTE m 20,766 19,951 18,188 17,482 17,192 -1.7% -4.8%

group employees gf 29,326 28,209 - - - - -

mail employees m - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 96.1% 96.0% 95.4% 96.1% 96.0%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.0% 0.0%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.0% 0.0%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 0.0% 0.0%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 0.0% 0.0%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.0% 0.0%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 0.0% 0.0%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.22 8.22 0.0% 0.0%

households million 3.57 3.60 3.62 3.65 3.68 0.8% 0.7%

land area km² 82,444 82,445 82,445 82,443 82,445

households per square kilometer 1/km² 43.3 43.6 44.0 44.3 44.6 0.8% 0.7%

CPL 99 98 97 100 98 -2.0% 0.0%

GDP (in billion €) 282.8 276.6 285.0 297.0 307.4 3.5% 3.6%

internet access 54% 58% 64% 72% 77%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 230 216 205 201 201 -0.3% -2.4%

addressed volume per HH items 530 492 464 453 449 -1.1% -3.0%

addressed volume per FTE m (in 1000 items) 91.0 88.7 92.4 94.7 96.0 1.4% 2.7%

revenue per FTE m (in 1000 €) 79.6 79.5 79.7 85.8 87.7 2.2% 3.3%

gross margin m EBIT/revenue 16.3% 13.4% 14.9% 18.5% 18.1% -2.1% 10.6%

Notes Mail figures - At the beginning of 2012 the former Mail Division and Branch Network Division were merged to create the new Mail & Branch Network Division

Financials - Small restate in profit of 2011 is made by Austrian Post (without explanation)

CAGR

Page 20: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Belgium

Sources: BIPT, bpost, IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, Raad voor de Mededinging, WIK (2013)

Incumbent: bpost (50% + 488 shares state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 1.2 billion (2012)

Market characteristics

20

Challenges Effect on market

USO Large definition of USO. USO with bpost until 2020.

VAT exemption

Distortion of competition: bpost is exempt from charging VAT for Universal

Service Products, its competitors are not. This leads to a price difference for

customers who cannot settle VAT on purchases.

Regulatory framework Little regulatory power for BIPT

(Belgian regulator).

Law is imposing licensing system with

conditions on delivery frequency and

80% coverage within 5 years.

Labour conditions The postal law states that postal companies are not allowed to use self-

employed.

State aid bpost is compensated for additional

services in the public interest.

Example: newspaper distribution.

Page 21: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Belgium - bpost

21 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of bpost, WIK (2013), Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) - - - - - - -

addressed mail items (in million items) 2,217 2,128 2,107 2,065 1,993 -3.5% -2.2%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) - - - - - - -

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 2,262 2,250 2,318 2,365 2,416 2.2% 2.4%

mail revenue m (in million €) 1,830 1,813 1,862 1,874 1,897 1.3% 1.5%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) 269 374 322 69 323 366.8% -4.7%

mail EBIT (operating profit) m (in million €) - - - - - - -

profit gf (in million €) 222 291 210 -57 174 - -15.7%

Workforce group FTE gf 30,660 30,030 29,324 27,973 26,625 -4.8% -3.9%

mail FTE m - - - - - - -

group employees gf 35,313 34,180 33,616 32,110 29,922 -6.8% -4.3%

mail employees m - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 93.6% 93.2% 93.3% 92.3% -

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.54 0.59 0.59 0.61 0.65 0.67 0.70 4.5% 4.7%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.54 0.59 0.59 0.61 0.65 0.67 0.70 4.5% 4.7%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.08 1.18 1.18 1.22 1.30 1.34 1.40 4.5% 4.7%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.62 1.77 1.77 1.83 1.95 2.01 2.10 4.5% 4.7%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.93 0.99 1.03 1.07 3.9% 4.8%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.90 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.19 1.24 1.29 4.0% 5.5%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 10.40 10.41 10.42 10.43 10.44 0.1% 0.1%

households million 4.51 4.57 4.62 4.65 4.64 -0.3% 0.5%

land area km² 30,278 30,278 30,278 30,278 30,278

households per square kilometer 1/km² 148.9 150.9 152.7 153.7 153.2 -0.3% 0.5%

CPL 104 102 104 105 102 -2.9% 0.0%

GDP (in billion €) 338.0 336.7 354.2 363.1 376.3 3.7% 3.8%

internet access 61% 63% 70% 74% 75%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 213 204 202 198 191 -3.6% -2.2%

addressed volume per HH items 492 466 456 444 430 -3.2% -2.7%

addressed volume per FTE gf (in 1000 items) 72.3 70.9 71.9 73.8 74.8 1.4% 1.8%

revenue per FTE gf (in 1000 €) 73.8 74.9 79.0 84.5 90.7 7.3% 6.6%

gross margin gf EBIT/revenue 11.9% 16.6% 13.9% 2.9% 13.4% 356.9% -7.0%

Notes Financials - Provisions in 2011 (€290.8 mln) and 2012 (€82.5 mln) to cover consequences of EC-decision negatively influence profit figures

Quality - In 2012 no D+1 quality figure was reported by bpost; reported overall delivery quality was 94% (not only D+1)

Quality - Quality figure of 2011 has been restated due to new information

CAGR

Page 22: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Denmark

Sources: IPC, Posten Norge, PostNL Team Analysis, PostNord, WIK (2013)

Incumbent: PostNord (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 0.8 billion (2012)

Market characteristics

22

Challenges Effect on market

Licensing Licensing system for operators in USO- and

non-USO area. Post Danmark has individual

license for USO-area (2011).

Possibility of introduction of

compensation fund for USO

net costs.

Merger with Posten AB In 2009 Post Danmark merged with Swedish

Posten AB.

Consortium operates through Swedish holding

PostNord AB (100% state owned).

Although 60% of PostNord is

owned by Swedish state and

40% by Danish state, the

voting ratio is 50/50.

VAT exemption

Distortion of competition: Post Danmark is

exempt from charging VAT for Universal

Service Products, its competitors are not. This

leads to a price difference for customers who

cannot settle VAT on purchases.

Bring Citymail (owned by

Posten Norge) discontinued

its operations in Denmark at

the end of 2009.

E-substitution The number of letter post items in 2012 was

about one-quarter of the volume in 1988.

Effect of e-substitution on

volume much greater than

competition.

Page 23: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Denmark - PostNord

23 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis , Website of PostNord, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 2,673 2,536 2,229 1,958 - - -

addressed mail items (in million items) 1,083 985 885 777 685 -11.8% -11.4%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 1,590 1,551 1,344 1,181 - - -

Financials group revenue g (in million €) 4,800 4,241 4,401 4,394 4,510 2.6% 2.1%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 1,487 1,388 1,332 1,220 1,144 -6.2% -6.2%

group EBIT (operating profit) g (in million €) 305 27 144 174 42 -75.9% 16.0%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) 124 42 67 39 -2 - -

profit g (in million €) 284 228 108 135 30 -78.2% -49.4%

Workforce group FTE g 51,783 47,624 44,060 41,714 39,713 -4.8% -5.9%

mail FTE mp 17,649 16,320 15,187 13,766 12,521 -9.0% -8.5%

group employees g - - - - - - -

mail employees mp - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 93.7% 95.7% 93.3% 94.0% 93.5%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 1.08 1.07 1.21 12.5% 17.8%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 1.08 1.07 1.21 12.5% 17.8%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.34 1.61 1.68 1.68 2.15 2.15 2.41 12.5% 12.9%

domestic, up to 250g € 2.15 2.42 2.48 2.48 3.36 3.35 3.75 12.0% 14.8%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 1.04 1.07 1.14 1.14 1.48 1.68 1.88 12.0% 18.1%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 1.17 1.21 1.28 1.27 1.75 1.94 2.15 10.3% 19.0%

Country exchange rate SEK/EUR 9.665 10.582 9.535 9.044 8.686 8.666 8.666

inhabitants million 5.48 5.50 5.52 5.53 5.54 0.2% 0.3%

households million 2.42 2.39 2.31 2.32 2.33 0.3% -0.9%

land area km² 42,394 42,434 42,434 42,434 42,434

households per square kilometer 1/km² 57.2 56.3 54.5 54.8 54.9 0.3% -0.9%

CPL 135 136 138 134 131 -2.2% -1.2%

GDP (in billion €) 232.8 222.5 235.2 236.1 245.2 3.9% 3.3%

internet access 74% 76% 80% 84% 85%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 197 179 160 141 124 -12.1% -11.6%

addressed volume per HH items 447 412 383 334 294 -12.1% -10.6%

addressed volume per FTE mp (in 1000 items) 61.4 60.4 58.3 56.4 54.7 -3.1% -3.2%

revenue per FTE mp (in 1000 €) 84.3 85.0 87.7 88.6 91.4 3.1% 2.4%

gross margin mp EBIT/revenue 8.3% 3.0% 5.0% 3.2% 0.2%- - -

Notes Financials - Increase in group revenue of 2012 is due to exchange rate effect (group revenue decreased with 1.4% in local currency)

Financials - Group EBIT and profit 2012 are impacted with significant restructuring costs and extraordinary write-downs (together accounting for €162 mln)

Postal rates - The decrease of domestic postal rates in 2013 is explained by a currency effect

Country - Exchange rate applies to financials from the annual report. Postal rates are based on DKK exchange rate

CAGR

Page 24: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Finland

Sources: ECORYS (2008), Ficora (2011), IPC, Itella, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

Incumbent: Itella Posti Oy (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 0.5 billion (2012)

Market characteristics

24

Challenges Effect on market

Regulatory framework A very strict licensing system was

applicable but abandoned under the

2011 postal law.

Finland renewed the postal regulation

in June 2011, which is now up to date

and aligned with the latest postal

directive. Quality requirement is

changed from D+1 to D+2.

Licensing Under the 2011 act, government must

grant a license if the licensee meets

minimal qualifications and the area for

which the license is sought must be

uniform.

Government must impose license

conditions, but this is unclear because

no license has been granted under the

new act.

Price discrimination Some problems with access tariffs: mail consolidators are not offered the same

tariffs as similar bulk mailers, despite legislation change.

Competition As yet, the company has no direct

competitors in basic mail delivery.

Potentially some competition in

package delivery.

Market • Itella Bank started as a deposit bank

in the beginning of 2012.

• Entire share capital of Itella Bank Ltd in

2013 divested to Savings Banks.

Page 25: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Finland - Itella

25 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Itella, WIK (2013), Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 1,990 2,005 2,045 1,950 2,090 7.2% 1.4%

addressed mail items (in million items) 1,200 1,125 1,125 1,100 1,060 -3.6% -2.0%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 790 900 950 850 1,030 21.2% 4.6%

Financials group revenue g (in million €) 1,953 1,834 1,856 1,926 1,972 2.4% 2.4%

mail revenue m / mp (as of '09) (in million €) 918 1,168 1,142 1,152 1,168 1.4% 0.0%

group EBIT (operating profit) g (in million €) 69 47 32 -6 39 - -5.8%

mail EBIT (operating profit) m / mp (as of '09) (in million €) 90 64 48 31 74 135.7% 5.2%

profit g (in million €) 19 -5 14 -31 14 - -

Workforce group FTE g 22,129 22,398 21,534 21,736 20,142 -7.3% -3.5%

mail FTE m / mp (as of '09) - - - - - - -

group employees g 28,163 29,568 29,022 27,585 27,816 0.8% -2.0%

mail employees m / mp (as of '09) 19,745 19,168 19,314 17,883 17,844 -0.2% -2.4%

Quality domestic quality 95.0% 94.0% 91.1% 92.0% 90.4%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.80 1.00 25.0% 10.1%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.80 1.00 25.0% 10.1%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.05 1.10 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.40 27.3% 10.1%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.60 2.00 25.0% 10.1%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.80 1.00 25.0% 10.1%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.80 1.00 25.0% 10.1%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 5.24 5.25 5.26 5.26 5.26 0.1% 0.1%

households million 2.45 2.48 2.51 2.53 2.55 0.8% 0.9%

land area km² 304,473 303,815 303,815 303,815 303,815

households per square kilometer 1/km² 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 0.8% 0.9%

CPL 121 119 119 114 115 0.9% -1.1%

GDP (in billion €) 184.3 170.7 181.0 188.8 192.8 2.1% 4.1%

internet access 66% 74% 76% 81% 85%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 229 214 214 209 201 -3.7% -2.0%

addressed volume per HH items 489 453 448 435 416 -4.4% -2.9%

addressed volume per FTE g (in 1000 items) 54.2 50.2 52.2 50.6 52.6 4.0% 1.6%

revenue per FTE g (in 1000 €) 88.3 81.9 86.2 88.6 97.9 10.5% 6.1%

gross margin m / mp (as of '09) EBIT/revenue 9.8% 5.4% 4.2% 2.7% 6.3% 132.5% 5.2%

Notes Mail figures - As of 2009 parcels are included in the mail figures

Financials - Group revenues as of 2009 include other operating income

Financials - The EBIT and profit of 2011 are negatively influenced by the initial costs of a cost cutting program

Quality - Small restate in quality figure of 2010 due to new information

Postal rates - As of June 1 in 2011, VAT is no longer applicable on letters and postal parcels paid in cash

CAGR

Page 26: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

France

Sources: Arcep, IPC, La Poste, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

Incumbent: La Poste (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 7.3 billion (2012)

Market characteristics

26

Challenges Effect on market

Price discrimination

Mail consolidators are not offered the same

tariffs as comparable bulk mailers.

Practice approved by French

competition authority.

Access Difficulties in cities with access to apartments that use La Poste’s entry system.

Regulatory framework Full liberalisation as of 1-1-2011. Terms, rules and procedures for contributing to

a compensation fund are defined, with a clear role for Arcep (French regulator).

Government subsidy Incumbent is subsidised for distributing

press items and keeping a certain presence

in rural areas with post offices.

European Commission

authorized this on 25-01-2012.

VAT exemption Distortion of competition: La Poste is exempt from charging VAT for Universal

Service Products, which cover the complete mail market. Its competitors are not.

This leads to a price difference for customers who cannot settle VAT on

purchases.

Page 27: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

France – La Poste

27 Sources: Arcep, CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of La Poste, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 23,201 22,041 21,314 20,674 19,454 -5.9% -4.1%

addressed mail items (in million items) 16,152 15,347 14,801 14,319 13,721 -4.2% -3.7%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 7,049 6,694 6,513 6,355 5,733 -9.8% -5.0%

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 20,799 20,527 20,939 21,341 21,658 1.5% 1.8%

mail revenue m (in million €) 12,023 11,665 11,538 11,568 11,410 -1.4% -0.7%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) 886 757 784 670 816 21.8% 2.5%

mail EBIT (operating profit) m (in million €) 545 661 651 757 684 -9.6% 1.1%

profit gf (in million €) 535 537 537 467 481 3.0% -3.6%

Workforce group FTE gf 295,745 287,174 276,555 268,822 266,618 -0.8% -2.4%

mail FTE m - - - - - - -

group employees gf - - - - - - -

mail employees m - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 83.9% 84.7% 83.4% 87.3% 87.9%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.63 0.66 4.8% 4.4%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.88 0.90 0.95 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 4.8% 5.0%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.33 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.45 1.55 1.65 6.5% 4.4%

domestic, up to 250g € 2.18 2.22 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.55 2.65 3.9% 4.8%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.83 3.7% 2.5%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.95 0.98 3.2% 3.3%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 60.88 64.06 64.06 65.31 65.63 0.5% 0.8%

households million 26.71 27.01 27.26 27.53 27.78 0.9% 0.9%

land area km² 545,630 549,970 549,970 549,970 549,970

households per square kilometer 1/km² 49.0 49.1 49.6 50.1 50.5 0.9% 0.9%

CPL 104 102 103 104 100 -3.8% -0.7%

GDP (in billion €) 1,938.1 1,903.7 1,939.9 1,968.2 2,034.7 3.4% 2.2%

internet access 57% 57% 67% 70% 77%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 265 240 231 219 209 -4.6% -4.4%

addressed volume per HH items 605 568 543 520 494 -5.0% -4.6%

addressed volume per FTE gf (in 1000 items) 54.6 53.4 53.5 53.3 51.5 -3.4% -1.2%

revenue per FTE gf (in 1000 €) 70.3 71.5 75.7 79.4 81.2 2.3% 4.4%

gross margin m EBIT/revenue 4.5% 5.7% 5.6% 6.5% 6.0% -8.4% 1.9%

Note Volume - Volumes of La Poste are based on an ARCEP-report (La Poste volumes are assumed to be the same as market volumes)

Volume - Small restate in volume figures of 2010 and 2011 due to new information

Financials - The mail EBIT does not include the net costs of territorial presence (€665 mln in 2009, €642 mln in 2010, €606 mln in 2011, €621 mln in 2012)

Quality - Small restate in quality figure of 2011 due to new information

CAGR

Page 28: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Germany

Incumbent: Deutsche Post (21% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 8.7 billion (2012)

Sources: BBD, Bundesnetzagentur (2012), IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

Market characteristics

28

Challenges Effect on market

Minimum wage Will come under the coalition

Government of SPD and CDU/CSU.

• Proposed level is what is usual in the postal

sector in Germany.

VAT exemption Bulk mail is not VAT exempt anymore.

Competition Infopost (DM) tariffs unauthorised

used for letter mail.

The appeal of DPAG against the decision of

the Federal Network Agency is in court.

Competition Possible hindering competition on

the letter services market.

The proceedings against the Deutsche Post

AG for the discounted prices for large

volume mailings will be completed by the

Federal Cartel Office in 2014.

Regulatory

framework

Weak regulation, e.g. ex ante price

control.

Renewal of legislation is not to be expected.

Page 29: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Germany – Deutsche Post

29 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Deutsche Post, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 20,037 18,858 18,185 18,037 17,644 -2.2% -2.2%

addressed mail items (in million items) 15,097 14,278 13,900 13,932 13,447 -3.5% -2.0%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 4,940 4,580 4,285 4,105 4,197 2.2% -2.9%

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 54,474 48,342 53,605 54,879 57,680 5.1% 6.1%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 14,393 13,912 13,913 13,973 13,972 0.0% 0.1%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) -966 231 1,835 2,436 2,665 9.4% 126.0%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) 2,179 1,391 1,120 1,107 1,051 -5.1% -8.9%

profit gf (in million €) -1,266 261 2,630 1,266 1,780 40.6% 89.6%

Workforce group FTE gf 451,515 424,686 418,946 423,502 428,129 1.1% 0.3%

mail FTE mp 142,674 144,968 146,005 147,487 145,850 -1.1% 0.2%

group employees gf 512,536 477,280 467,088 471,654 473,626 0.4% -0.3%

mail employees mp - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 95.0% 94.0% 94.0% 95.0% 95.0%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.58 0.60 3.4% 2.9%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.0% 0.0%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 0.0% 0.0%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 0.0% 0.0%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.0% 0.0%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 1.70 1.70 1.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.0% 0.0%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 82.37 82.33 82.28 81.47 81.31 -0.2% -0.4%

households million 39.65 39.31 39.62 39.88 40.13 0.6% 0.7%

land area km² 349,223 348,672 348,672 348,672 348,672

households per square kilometer 1/km² 113.5 112.7 113.6 114.4 115.1 0.6% 0.7%

CPL 100 98 98 96 94 -2.1% -1.4%

GDP (in billion €) 2,481.4 2,404.8 2,508.0 2,534.3 2,669.6 5.3% 3.5%

internet access 55% 65% 75% 78% 82%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 183 173 169 171 165 -3.3% -1.6%

addressed volume per HH items 381 363 351 349 335 -4.1% -2.6%

addressed volume per FTE mp (in 1000 items) 105.8 98.5 95.2 94.5 92.2 -2.4% -2.2%

revenue per FTE mp (in 1000 €) 100.9 96.0 95.3 94.7 95.8 1.1% -0.1%

gross margin mp EBIT/revenue 15.1% 10.0% 8.1% 7.9% 7.5% -5.1% -9.1%

Notes Mail figures - As of 2009 mail figures are reported differently due to a change in organisational structure

Financials - As of 2009 the group revenue includes other operating income

CAGR

Page 30: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Italy

Sources: AGCM, IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Poste Italiane, WIK (2013)

Market characteristics

Incumbent: Poste Italiane (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 3.1 billion (2013)

30

Challenges Effect on market

VAT exemption Distortion of competition: Poste Italiane is

exempt from charging VAT (22%) for

Universal Service Products, its competitors

are not. This leads to a price difference for

customers who cannot settle VAT on

purchases.

Direct Mail was excluded from

the Italian USO as of 1 June

2012. A reserved area still

remains for judicial acts and

fines.

Regulatory framework Focuses on protecting the interests of the

market, including competitors.

Regulator appointed with power

of parliament.

Government subsidy Incumbent is subsidised for USO. Low

Poste Italiane tariffs lead to a loss which is

compensated for via government subsidy.

EU Postal Directive prohibits

this kind of subsidy, just USO

net costs may be compensated.

Competition distortion Complaints at Italian competition authority

(AGCM) against Post Italiane.

Poste Italiane does not apply

VAT to negotiated agreements.

Page 31: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Italy – Poste Italiane

31 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Poste Italiane, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 6,466 5,795 5,514 5,098 4,481 -12.1% -8.2%

addressed mail items (in million items) 5,875 5,215 4,830 4,482 3,946 -11.9% -8.9%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 591 579 684 616 535 -13.2% -2.6%

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 17,853 20,098 21,837 21,693 24,069 11.0% 6.2%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 5,785 5,505 5,363 5,161 4,657 -9.8% -5.4%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) 1,470 1,599 1,870 1,641 1,382 -15.8% -4.7%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) -57 -208 -153 -263 - - -

profit gf (in million €) 883 904 1,018 846 1,032 22.0% 4.5%

Workforce group FTE gf 155,732 148,242 145,631 143,577 143,050 -0.4% -1.2%

mail FTE mp - - - - - - -

group employees gf - - - - - - -

mail employees mp - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 90.6% 90.7% 92.0% 94.7% 92.9%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.70 0.70 0.0% 5.3%

domestic, up to 50g € 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.90 1.90 0.0% 10.7%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.10 2.10 0.0% 11.9%

domestic, up to 250g € 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.60 2.60 0.0% 9.1%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.75 0.75 0.85 0.85 0.0% 4.3%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.60 1.60 2.50 2.50 0.0% 16.0%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 58.15 58.13 58.09 61.02 61.26 0.4% 1.8%

households million 24.26 24.61 24.88 25.15 25.34 0.8% 1.0%

land area km² 294,020 294,140 294,140 294,140 294,140

households per square kilometer 1/km² 82.5 83.7 84.6 85.5 86.1 0.8% 1.0%

CPL 101 101 101 90 95 5.6% -2.0%

GDP (in billion €) 1,557.6 1,518.1 1,554.5 1,557.8 1,568.9 0.7% 1.1%

internet access 31% 39% 49% 52% 55%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 101 90 83 73 64 -12.3% -10.5%

addressed volume per HH items 242 212 194 178 156 -12.6% -9.8%

addressed volume per FTE gf (in 1000 items) 37.7 35.2 33.2 31.2 27.6 -11.6% -7.8%

revenue per FTE gf (in 1000 €) 114.6 135.6 149.9 151.1 168.3 11.4% 7.5%

gross margin mp EBIT/revenue -1.0% -3.8% -2.9% -5.1% - - -

Notes Volume - As of 2009 a new reporting standard is used for the addressed volume figures

Financials - Mail revenue of 2011 is restated due to a change in organisational structure

Financials - Mail EBIT 2012 is not presented as the reported figure (€416 mln) is strongly influenced by intersegment revenues mainly consisting of financial services

Financials - Increase in profit in combination with decrease in group EBIT is explained by an income tax correction for previous years following a change in legislation

CAGR

Page 32: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

The Netherlands

Challenges Effect on market

Labour conditions At least 80% of mail deliverers must have a labour agreement. This percentage

is formalised in a Ministerial decree, linked to a Collective Labour Agreement.

The minimum wage will also become the norm for self-employed workers.

VAT exemption

Equal treatment of all providers with VAT on bulk mail, i.e. no distortion of

competition (due to small USO definition).

Competition Procedures that PostNL had misused its

market position were – after conclusions of

the supervisor that this was not the case –

ended in 2013.

Significant market power

regulation is introduced as from

01-01-2014.

Access All mail senders (including competitors of

PostNL) are treated equally in terms and

conditions.

No discrimination.

Consolidation Since Sandd took over Deutsche Post daughter Selektmail, the market is

stabilised.

Sources: ACM, IPC, OPTA, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

Market characteristics

Incumbent: PostNL (0% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 1.4 billion (2012)

32

Page 33: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

The Netherlands – PostNL

33 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of PostNL, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 11,666 11,428 - - - - -

addressed mail items (in million items) 4,693 4,473 4,070 3,777 3,437 -9.0% -8.4%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 6,973 6,955 - - - - -

Financials group revenue g (in million €) 11,152 4,249 4,315 4,350 4,362 0.3% 0.9%

mail revenue mp / m (as of '09) (in million €) 4,245 2,720 2,549 2,446 2,319 -5.2% -5.2%

group EBIT (operating profit) g (in million €) 982 587 480 417 291 -30.2% -20.9%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp / m (as of '09) (in million €) 633 456 188 234 86 -63.2% -42.7%

profit g (in million €) 560 297 282 -423 678 - 31.7%

Workforce group FTE g 111,997 39,627 37,662 33,827 33,284 -1.6% -5.6%

mail FTE mp / m (as of '09) 39,935 27,825 26,245 24,780 23,930 -3.4% -4.9%

group employees g 154,085 79,874 77,155 65,508 66,411 1.4% -6.0%

mail employees mp / m (as of '09) 76,892 58,181 56,409 55,622 55,370 -0.5% -1.6%

Quality domestic quality 96.2% 96.3% 95.3% 96.1% 93.9%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.46 0.50 0.54 0.64 18.5% 11.6%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.92 1.00 1.08 1.28 18.5% 11.6%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.38 1.50 1.62 1.92 18.5% 11.6%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.84 2.00 2.16 2.56 18.5% 11.6%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.79 0.85 0.90 1.05 16.7% 9.9%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.05 10.5% 3.4%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 16.65 16.72 16.78 16.85 16.73 -0.7% 0.0%

households million 7.21 7.27 7.34 7.37 7.45 1.2% 0.8%

land area km² 33,883 33,893 33,893 33,893 33,893

households per square kilometer 1/km² 212.7 214.5 216.4 217.3 219.9 1.2% 0.8%

CPL 100 100 100 100 100 0.0% 0.0%

GDP (in billion €) 584.4 569.2 593.7 593.5 600.1 1.1% 1.8%

internet access 74% 77% 80% 83% 84%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 282 268 243 224 205 -8.4% -8.4%

addressed volume per HH items 651 615 555 513 461 -10.1% -9.2%

addressed volume per FTE mp / m (as of '09) (in 1000 items) 117.5 160.8 155.1 152.4 143.6 -5.8% -3.7%

revenue per FTE mp / m (as of '09) (in 1000 €) 106.3 97.8 97.1 98.7 96.9 -1.8% -0.3%

gross margin mp / m (as of '09) EBIT/revenue 14.9% 16.8% 7.4% 9.6% 3.7% -61.2% -39.5%

Notes General - As of 2009 the presented group figures exclude express services; the presented mail figures exclude parcels, international and mail other (restated)

Financials - Decrease in 2011 profit is due to impairments of investments in TNT Express (€636 mln) and negative results of investments in TNT Express (€25 mln)

Financials - Increase in 2012 profit (while EBIT is decreasing) is due to a partial reversal of the impairment charges (€570 mln)

Financials - Revenues include other income for comparison with other countries; in 2012 other income was €32 mln (group) and €14 mln (mail)

Key figures - Addressed volume per HH diverges from the figure as shown in the annual report; annual report uses delivery adresses instead of households

Key figures - Addressed volume per FTE diverges from the figure as shown in the annual report due to a different definition of mail FTE

CAGR

Page 34: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Spain

Sources: CNC, Correos, ECORYS (2008), IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, WIK (2013)

Market characteristics

Incumbent: Correos (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 1.9 billion (2012)

34

Challenges Effect on market

Liberalisation At full liberalisation Correos was appointed to

provide the USO for a period of 15 years.

Market has been liberalised from the beginning

of 2011.

License for 15 years not in

line with EU Directive says

Competition authority.

VAT exemption

Distortion of competition: Correos is exempt

from charging VAT for Universal Service

Products, its competitors are not. This leads to

a price difference for customers who cannot

settle VAT on purchases.

Currently more services

under USO, i.e. enlarging the

VAT-effects.

Regulation Postal regulator Comisión Nacional del Sector

Postal merged with competition authority

Comisión Nacional de la Competencia.

Separation of regulation and

supervision.

Government subsidy Correos receives an operating contribution for

the universal service from the government.

EU Postal Directive prohibits

this kind of subsidy, just USO

net costs may be

compensated.

Page 35: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Spain - Correos

35 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of Correos, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 5,123 4,631 4,398 4,050 3,627 -10.4% -7.8%

addressed mail items (in million items) - - - - - - -

unaddressed mail items (in million items) - - - - - - -

Financials group revenue gf (in million €) 2,387 2,343 2,239 2,174 1,964 -9.7% -5.7%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 2,232 2,044 1,970 1,946 1,739 -10.6% -5.2%

group EBIT (operating profit) gf (in million €) 84 -9 -5 -10 -14 - -

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) 81 -4 - - - - -

profit gf (in million €) 79 3 6 0 -4 - -

Workforce group FTE gf - - - - - - -

mail FTE mp - - - - - - -

group employees gf 67,661 65,781 63,401 60,784 57,275 -5.8% -4.5%

mail employees mp 65,924 64,037 61,819 58,952 55,775 -5.4% -4.5%

Quality domestic quality 64.1% 69.1% 69.6% 70.5% 68.8%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.0% 1.9%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.0% 1.3%

domestic, up to 100g € 0.63 0.65 0.69 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.0% 4.0%

domestic, up to 250g € 1.75 1.81 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.0% 0.8%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.0% 4.9%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.0% 4.0%

Country exchange rate EUR/EUR 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

inhabitants million 40.49 40.53 40.55 46.75 47.04 0.6% 5.1%

households million 16.70 17.08 17.17 17.34 17.43 0.5% 0.7%

land area km² 499,542 498,980 498,980 498,980 498,980

households per square kilometer 1/km² 33.4 34.2 34.4 34.8 34.9 0.5% 0.7%

CPL 93 89 90 91 90 -1.1% 0.4%

GDP (in billion €) 1,089.7 1,049.3 1,066.5 1,058.1 1,030.2 -2.6% -0.6%

internet access 45% 51% 57% 62% 67%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items - - - - - - -

addressed volume per HH items - - - - - - -

addressed volume per FTE gf (in 1000 items) - - - - - - -

revenue per FTE gf (in 1000 €) - - - - - - -

gross margin gf EBIT/revenue 3.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.5% -0.7% - -

Notes Financials - As of 2009 group revenue includes other income

Postal rates - The listed rates are based on a D+3 service level as these are the standard single item rates in Spain; the D+1 rate up to 20g is relatively high (€3.10)

CAGR

Page 36: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Sweden

Sources: ECORYS (2008), IPC, PostNL Team Analysis, PostNord, PTS, WIK (2013)

Market characteristics

Incumbent: PostNord (100% state owned)

Value addressed postal market: € 1.3 billion (2012)

36

Challenges Effect on market

Price discrimination Some problems with access tariffs: mail consolidators are not offered the same

tariffs as similar bulk mailers, despite legislation change.

VAT exemption Equal treatment for all players. ECJ-ruling is not applicable in Sweden, since all

postal products are VAT-charged.

Merger with Post

Danmark

Posten AB has merged with Post

Danmark.

Consortium operates as PostNord AB

(previously Posten Norden).

Although 60% is owned by Sweden

and 40% by Denmark, the voting

ratio is 50/50.

Regulation A new postal law came into force. Swedish NRA PTS decided to oblige

Posten AB in its license conditions to

publish information on prices and

discounts for universal services in full

detail on its Internet site.

Page 37: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Sweden - PostNord

37 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Eurostat, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of PostNord, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 4,965 4,554 4,571 4,491 - - -

addressed mail items (in million items) 2,482 2,333 2,311 2,231 2,123 -4.8% -3.1%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 2,482 2,221 2,260 2,260 - - -

Financials group revenue g (in million €) 4,800 4,241 4,401 4,394 4,510 2.6% 2.1%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 1,802 1,561 1,706 1,764 1,833 3.9% 5.5%

group EBIT (operating profit) g (in million €) 305 27 144 174 42 -75.9% 16.0%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) 100 38 92 98 91 -7.2% 34.5%

profit g (in million €) 284 228 108 135 30 -78.2% -49.4%

Workforce group FTE g 51,783 47,624 44,060 41,714 39,713 -4.8% -5.9%

mail FTE mp 21,937 20,197 19,010 18,311 17,686 -3.4% -4.3%

group employees g - - - - - - -

mail employees mp - - - - - - -

Quality domestic quality 94.9% 95.9% 93.1% 94.7% 95.4%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.57 0.57 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.0% 1.4%

domestic, up to 50g € 1.14 1.13 1.26 1.33 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.0% 1.4%

domestic, up to 100g € 1.14 1.13 1.26 1.33 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.0% 1.4%

domestic, up to 250g € 2.28 2.27 2.52 2.65 2.76 2.77 2.77 0.0% 1.4%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 1.14 1.13 1.26 1.33 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.0% 1.4%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 1.14 1.13 1.26 1.33 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.0% 1.4%

Country exchange rate SEK/EUR 9.665 10.582 9.535 9.044 8.686 8.666 8.666

inhabitants million 9.05 9.06 9.07 9.09 9.10 0.2% 0.2%

households million 4.52 4.56 4.54 4.54 4.59 1.2% 0.3%

land area km² 410,934 410,335 410,335 410,335 410,335

households per square kilometer 1/km² 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 1.2% 0.3%

CPL 114 99 109 112 123 9.8% 7.5%

GDP (in billion €) 326.1 291.8 347.1 381.9 407.9 6.8% 11.8%

internet access 71% 79% 83% 86% 87%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 274 258 255 245 233 -5.0% -3.3%

addressed volume per HH items 549 512 509 491 462 -5.9% -3.3%

addressed volume per FTE mp (in 1000 items) 113.1 115.5 121.6 121.8 120.0 -1.5% 1.3%

revenue per FTE mp (in 1000 €) 82.1 77.3 89.7 96.3 103.7 7.6% 10.3%

gross margin mp EBIT/revenue 5.6% 2.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% -10.7% 27.5%

Notes Financials - Increase in group revenue of 2012 is due to exchange rate effect (group revenue decreased with 1.4% in local currency)

Financials - Group EBIT and profit 2012 are impacted with significant restructuring costs and extraordinary write-downs (together accounting for €162 mln)

CAGR

Page 38: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

United Kingdom

Sources: Ofcom, PostNL Team Analysis

Market characteristics

38

Incumbent: Royal Mail (37.8% state owned)

Value total postal market: € 8.9 billion (2012)

Challenges Effect on market

VAT exemption Royal Mail is exempt from VAT for its USO and

regulated wholesale services: its competitors’ services

are not exempt. This leads to a price difference for

customers who cannot recover VAT on purchases.

In April 2014, the High Court

in London will decide on the

case or send a further

question to the Court of

Justice of the EU.

Pricing

Royal Mail has considerable pricing flexibility which is subject to overview by the

regulator Ofcom.

End-to-end

competition

Royal Mail proposed different prices to different types

of competitors and to decrease prices in areas where

competition is expected. Thus hindering the

development of end-to-end competition.

In January 2014, TNT Post

UK filed a formal complaint

against unfair, discriminatory

and exclusionary pricing by

Royal Mail.

Page 39: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

United Kingdom – Royal Mail

39 Sources: CIA World Factbook, OECD, PostNL Team Analysis, Website of ONS, Website of Royal Mail, Worldbank

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1yr 3yrs

Volume total mail items (in million items) 17,899 14,557 13,444 12,327 11,410 -7.4% -7.8%

addressed mail items (in million items) 14,929 11,725 10,263 9,248 8,103 -12.4% -11.6%

unaddressed mail items (in million items) 2,970 2,832 3,181 3,079 3,307 7.4% 5.3%

Financials group revenue g (in million €) 11,925 9,600 9,818 10,029 11,449 14.2% 6.0%

mail revenue mp (in million €) 8,493 7,870 8,033 8,226 9,582 16.5% 6.8%

group EBIT (operating profit) g (in million €) 215 170 -35 109 448 312.0% 38.2%

mail EBIT (operating profit) mp (in million €) -157 28 -184 -10 313 - 123.5%

profit g (in million €) -286 -362 -336 172 703 309.7% -

Workforce group FTE g - - 171,611 166,762 164,118 -1.6% -

mail FTE mp - - 158,376 153,751 151,191 -1.7% -

group employees g 193,653 177,393 172,602 168,444 167,616 -0.5% -1.9%

mail employees mp 162,310 160,291 155,181 151,156 149,940 -0.8% -2.2%

Quality domestic quality 93.0% 87.9% 91.4% 92.7% 92.5%

Postal rates domestic, up to 20g € 0.45 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.57 0.71 0.71 0.0% 14.6%

domestic, up to 50g € 0.45 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.57 0.71 0.71 0.0% 14.6%

domestic, up to 100g € 0.45 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.57 0.71 0.71 0.0% 14.6%

domestic, up to 250g € 0.97 1.01 1.12 1.10 1.34 1.41 1.41 0.0% 8.7%

international (Europe), up to 20g € 0.62 0.63 0.70 0.78 0.84 1.02 1.04 1.1% 10.0%

international (rest of the world), up to 20g € 0.70 0.70 0.78 0.87 0.94 1.02 1.04 1.1% 6.0%

Country exchange rate GBP/EUR 0.802 0.890 0.857 0.874 0.810 0.850 0.850

inhabitants million 60.94 61.11 61.28 62.70 63.05 0.6% 1.0%

households million 26.54 25.69 25.83 26.01 26.14 0.5% 0.6%

land area km² 241,590 241,930 241,930 241,930 241,930

households per square kilometer 1/km² 109.9 106.2 106.8 107.5 108.0 0.5% 0.6%

CPL 93 83 88 102 110 7.8% 9.8%

GDP (in billion €) 1,797.2 1,562.5 1,702.0 1,725.9 1,924.9 11.5% 7.2%

internet access 62% 69% - 83% 86%

Key figures addressed volume per inhabitant items 245 192 167 147 129 -12.9% -12.5%

addressed volume per HH items 562 456 397 356 310 -12.8% -12.1%

addressed volume per FTE mp (in 1000 items) - - 64.8 60.1 53.6 -10.9% -

revenue per FTE mp (in 1000 €) - - 50.7 53.5 63.4 18.4% -

gross margin mp EBIT/revenue -1.9% 0.4% -2.3% -0.1% 3.3% - 109.3%

Notes General - Figures as of 2009 have been restated due to a change in the internal organisation

Volume - Reported addressed mail figures concern commercial (end-to-end) volumes

Financials - In 2010 the group EBIT contains modernisation costs of £207 mln and other exceptional items of £88 mln

Financials - Compared to last year, price increases, productivity improvements and tight cost management caused profit to increase

Postal rates - International (rest of the world) rates are until 10g; tariff for letters between 10g and 20g is higher (€1.28 in 2014)

Reporting period - The financial year ended at March 31, 2013

CAGR

Page 40: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Main sources

CIA World Factbook

The World Factbook provides information for 267 countries on the people, government, economy, and geography, including the countries' number of

inhabitants and land area.

Website: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

Copenhagen Economics (2010)

Main Developments in the Postal Sector (2008 – 2010), Part B: Country Fiche Appendix, Copenhagen Economics, 29 November 2010.

Digital version: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/post/doc/studies/2010-main-developments-country_en.pdf

ECORYS (2008)

Main developments in the Postal Sector (2006-2008), ECORYS, 11 September 2008.

Digital version: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/post/doc/studies/2008-ecorys-final_en.pdf

European Postal Directive (2008)

Directive 2008/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 February 2008 amending Directive 97/67/EC with regard to the full

accomplishment of the internal market of Community postal services.

Digital version: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/post/doc/legislation/2008-06_en.pdf

Eurostat

Eurostat offers detailed statistics on the EU and candidate countries, including the number of private households and the share of the population that

has internet access.

Website: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

IPC

IPC Postal Regulatory Database.

Website: http://www.ipc.be/en/Programmes/regulation/regulatory-database

OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) publishes comparable statistics and economic and social data at country level,

including the Comparative Price Level (CPL).

Website: http://www.oecd.org

WIK (2013)

Main Developments in the Postal Sector (2010-2013), Country Reports, WIK-Consult, 21 August 2013.

Digital version: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/post/doc/studies/20130821_wik_md2013-country-reports_en.pdf

Worldbank

The World Bank is an international financial institution, which also offers a list of gross domestic products per country.

Website: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-ranking-table

40

Page 41: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Explanatory notes

41

Abbreviations

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CPL Comparative Price Level

PPO Public Postal Operator

PPP Purchasing Power Parity

USO Universal Service Obligation

Definitions

Comparative Price Level Comparative price levels are defined as the ratios of PPO’s to

exchange rates

Value addressed postal market Value of domestic addressed letter market, excluding

newspapers and cross-border mail (if possible)

Postal Rates Postal rates as per 1 January of the referred year (for 2014,

exchange rates and CPLs are assumed to be constant)

Classification of figures in “Postal Operator Information” (page 18 – 39)

g group figures

gf group (including financial services) figures

m mail division figures

mp mail division (including parcels) figures

Page 42: European Postal Markets2014 – An Overview

Published by PostNL, 24 February 2014

For more information, please contact

Public Affairs:

[email protected]

No responsibility is taken for the accuracy of the information contained in the publication.

Although every effort has been made to compile correct and up-to-date information, neither

the editor nor the publisher and editorial staff will assume responsibility for possible

inaccuracies and their consequences. No indemnities can be claimed for printing or

typesetting mistakes or mistakes resulting from misinterpretation during research.