evaluating societal impacts related to air quality and climate thanks to many colleagues, especially...
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Lock in new CO 2 - intenstive capital stock Reduce SO 2 and NO x (both with net cooling effects) Avoiding PitfallsTRANSCRIPT
Evaluating Societal Impacts Related to Air Quality and Climate
Thanks to many colleagues, especially Greg Faluvegi & Yunha Lee
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the EnvironmentDuke University
Comparing impacts & robustness
Pollutant Climate Damages Health Damages Ag Damages
CO2 Very large (certain) None Medium
SO2 Opposite (global) Very large Opposite*
HFCs Large (very likely) None Very Large
Methane Large (certain) Medium Large
BC+ Moderate and/or Very large Very Largelarge uncertainty
How to decide what is best to do where?
Lock in new CO2-intenstive capital
stockReduce SO2 and NOx
(both with net cooling effects)
Avoiding Pitfalls
Currently...
To get the most out of labour, capital, and other resources, countires need to allocate them efficiently across different sectors of the economy, and to achieve this, product prices need to reflect not only the cost of supplying those products, but also any environmental costs of using them. We think prices paid by users of energy, or energy-related products, need to reflect the full range of environmental costs (air pollution, road traffic congestion…), not just global warming.
International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde, 2015
Currently...Obama Administration executive order for all federal agencies to include Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) analysis: “intended to include (but not limited to) changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and the value of ecosystem services due to climate change.”
EU has the Emissions Trading System
All impacts assumed proportional to global mean annual average radiative forcing or temperature change
Air Quality falls under a variety of rules, costs typically analyzed for major legislation
Develop a broader Social Cost that includes impacts on human health, agriculture, etc. via climate & air quality; includes all the key pollutants causing both problems
Model response to emissions of one pollutant at a time
Climate impacts of pollutants other than carbon dioxide
Same valuation methodology for air quality and climate(similar work for methane/ozone/health in Sarofim, Waldhoff & Anenberg, Environ. Res. Econ., 2015)
Valuing Emissions:
Social Cost of Atmospheric Release (SCAR)
Valuing Clean Air
Generation costs from US Energy Information Administration, 2012
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Policy Benefits: US
Clean Energy & Transportation Consistent with 2°C
Shindell et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016
Policy Benefits: US
Clean Energy: Avoids ~175,000 premature deaths by 2030 (-50%/+450%; ~80% PM2.5, 20% O3)
Clean Transportation: ~120,000 lives by 2030 (-36%/+360%; ~66% PM2.5, 33% O3)
Policy Benefits: US
Implementation costs ~$100-210B (2030 economy-wide)
Shindell et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016
How Well do we Know the Values
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How Well do we Know the Values
GISS-E2 CESM1 HadGEM3
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
dSW/dAOD
Axis Title
ΔTO
A S
W /
ΔA
OD
GISS-E2 CESM1 HadGEM30
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Series 1
ΔSO
4 / Δ
AO
DKasoar et al., ACPD, 2016
Need to define broad targets (e.g. UN Sustainable Development Goals)
Need to relate specific actions to broad targets (wider metrics)
Need to target efforts to improve quantification of key sources of uncertainty influencing valuation
How can policy & research maximize societal benefits?