evce 11 executive summary

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Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment

2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without theexpress written permission of Pike Research LLC.

John Gartner Senior Analyst

Clint WheelockPresident

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:Electric Vehicle Charging EquipmentLevel 1 and Level 2, DC Fast Charging (CHAdeMO),and Wireless EVSE: Market Analysis and Forecasts

NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report.If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contactPike Research at [email protected] .

Published 3Q 2011


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Section 1

It is no longer a question of if the electric vehicle (EV) is making a comeback; it is only aquestion of how many plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) that tap into the grid for power willbe driving alongside their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. While OEMs areslowly catching up to the pent-up demand for PEVs, manufacturers of electric vehiclesupply equipment (EVSE) are soliciting fleets, retailers, civic leaders, and citizens to investnow in charging equipment to further encourage the rollout of new models of PEVs. By2013, more than 80 different models of PEVs will be found on roadways across the globe,and at least as many models of charging equipment for residential and commercialcustomers will be available.

Sales of EVSE are strongly correlated with the sales of plug-in vehicles. By 2017, more

than 5.1 million PEVs will be sold globally. Regional differences that influence the amountof installed charging infrastructure include the percentage of PEV owners who have accessto home charging (versus relying solely on commercial charging spots), the amount of government investment in infrastructure, the split between battery electric vehicles (BEVs)and PHEVs, and the percentage of PEVs owned by fleets. During that time, nearly 7.7million EVSE sales will support those vehicles. (This figure does not include standardelectric outlets that have been placed near parking spots; only equipment with safetyfeatures for plugging in of PEVs is considered.)

Chart 1.1 Total EV Charging Station Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017

(Source: Pike Research)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Africa/Middle East

Asia Pacific

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America ( U n i t s )


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The Asia Pacific region will have the highest demand for both PEVs and EVSE, due tostrong demand for vehicle electrification in China, Japan, Korea, and Australia. Beginningin 2014, more than half of the global total of EVSE will be sold in Asia annually.

The EVSE market is divided between residential (intended for use by a single person or family) and three categories of commercial equipment: workplace, public, and private. Inregions where fewer PEV owners have a residential charger, the ratio of commercial EVSEto vehicles will be higher because of the need to share infrastructure. By 2015, residentialEVSE will make up 34% of the market, with nearly as many public charging spots added.In the majority of households where a dedicated parking spot is available, PEV owners willpurchase EVSE because of the convenience and lower cost of electricity.

Chart 1.2 EVSE Market Segmentation, World Markets: 2015

(Source: Pike Research)

Commercial EVSE will be divided between alternating current (AC) equipment, which ismost commonly used for Level 2 EVSE or faster equipment based on regional availabilityof power, or direct current (DC) charging equipment. DC charging equipment, which cancost 10 times as much as a Level 2 AC charger, will be a niche application in most regionsof the world due to the higher cost of equipment and the greater fees associated with ondemand charging. Global sales of DC charging equipment will grow from less than 3,000units in 2011 to more than 115,000 units annually by 2017. DC EVSE sales will be mostprevalent in Asia, where automotive OEMs and equipment manufacturers have embracedCHAdeMO as a de facto standard. Sales in North America will be stunted until OEMsagree on a technology, either CHAdeMO or an alternative being developed by the Societyof Automotive Engineers (SAE).

The cost of residential and commercial charging equipment reflects the newtechnology/early adopter state of the market. The retail price of equipment is expected todecline by approximately 7% annually as larger electronics and building power companies


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intensify competition with startup and specialty companies. Wireless charging technologyis currently being developed by several hardware companies and is being evaluated byseveral automotive companies. Plug-less charging offers great convenience, but thehigher cost and lack of standards will delay adoption. By 2015, more than 50,000 units of wireless EVSE will be sold globally.

A multitude of business models has been proposed for EV charging services that rangefrom free, to small fees per charging event, to subscription fees that provide unlimitedcharging. In North America, commercial companies that have received equipment via thefederal stimulus program will initially offer charging services for free. In areas where publiccharging is available at no cost, pay-for services will face challenges in attractingconsumers. In regions of the world where utilities are permitted to own EVSE and sellcharging services directly to customers, the cost of electricity will likely be lower thanthrough third parties.

The penetration of EVSE within a country will, like PEVs, vary by region. Many cities andstates are promoting the use of PEVs and installing EVSE as a means of reducing urbanemissions. In the United States, California will lead in EVSE adoption with more than370,000 units installed by 2017. New York, Florida, Texas, and Illinois will round out thetop five states in EVSE installations.

Vehicle charging is likely to have little impact on grid operators ability to generate anddistribute sufficient power to meet the additional load. In some areas, peak demand couldbe increased or the peak hours extended later into the evening if customers are notincentivized to charge off-peak. The impact of power delivered through EVSE couldshorten the lifespan of some neighborhood distribution equipment, such as transformers or power lines. DC charging will have the greatest impact on peak load, and severalcompanies are exploring combining DC charging with stationary batteries and/or solar power to limit the cost of electricity and peak impact.

For these reasons, utilities are offering less expensive EV charging rates and time of use(TOU) pricing with power purchased overnight costing a fraction of the peak power price.The benefits of off-peak charging will encourage nearly all equipment purchases to besmart EVSE that can be programmed remotely. Utilities are beginning to invest ininformation technology (IT) and other smart grid equipment to accommodate the increasedload. Investment in equipment that can share data with EVSE will begin in earnest in mostregions after 2013.

Trials are currently underway of vehicle to grid (V2G) systems that enable PEVs torespond to a grid signal by decreasing load or, with the required technology installed,return power from the vehicle to the grid. This application will be relegated to fleets for thenext few years until the number of PEVs available to participate becomes sufficient.


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Section 10

Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Introductions .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 World Markets ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Business Models ........................................................................................................................... 3

Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 4

2.1 PEV Market ................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Impact of New Model Introductions ......................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 PEV Premium Cost ................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 Regional PEV Sales ................................................................................................................ 6

2.2 Vehicle Charging ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Onboard Charging Equipment ................................................................................................. 7 2.2.2 Commercial Infrastructure Locations ...................................................................................... 8 2.2.3 Residential Charging ............................................................................................................... 8

2.2.3.1 Residential Upgrade Requirements ................................................................................ 9 2.2.3.2 New Construction ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3.3 Underwriters Lab Certification ...................................................................................... 10 2.2.3.4 Cost ............................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.3.5 Permits .......................................................................................................................... 10

2.3 Commercial Charging Equipment ............................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Public Charging ..................................................................................................................... 11

2.3.1.1 Private Charging Stations ............................................................................................. 12 2.3.1.2 Workplace Charging ..................................................................................................... 12

2.4 Regional EVSE Deployments ..................................................................................................... 12 2.4.1 North America ........................................................................................................................ 12

2.4.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4.2.1 Market Segmentation .................................................................................................... 14 2.4.2.2 Utility Involvement ......................................................................................................... 14 2.4.2.3 Business Models ........................................................................................................... 15

2.4.3 Asia ........................................................................................................................................ 15 2.4.3.1 Japan ............................................................................................................................ 15

2.4.3.1.1. Charger Deployment Plans in Japan ....................................................................... 15 2.4.3.2 Korea ............................................................................................................................ 15

2.4.3.2.1. Charger Deployment Plans in Korea ....................................................................... 15 2.4.3.3 China ............................................................................................................................. 15

2.4.3.3.1. Charger Deployment Plans and Standards in China ............................................... 15 2.5 DC Charging ................................................................................................................................ 16

2.5.1 Charge Rates ........................................................................................................................ 17

2.5.2

Equipment Placement ........................................................................................................... 17

2.5.3 Cost ....................................................................................................................................... 17 2.5.4 Grid Impact ............................................................................................................................ 17 2.5.5 Customer Demand ................................................................................................................ 17 2.5.6 Business Model ..................................................................................................................... 18 2.5.7 CHAdeMO ............................................................................................................................. 18

2.5.7.1 Automaker Support ....................................................................................................... 18 2.5.7.2 EVSE Vendor Support .................................................................................................. 18


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2.6 Wireless Charging ....................................................................................................................... 18 2.6.1 Stage of Commercialization .................................................................................................. 19

2.6.1.1 Field Trials .................................................................................................................... 19 2.6.2 Cost ....................................................................................................................................... 19 2.6.3 Standards .............................................................................................................................. 19 2.6.4 Road-Embedded Charging Equipment ................................................................................. 19

2.7 Battery Swapping Stations .......................................................................................................... 20 Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Marketing and Commercialization ........................................................................................................... 21

3.1 EV Charging Economics ............................................................................................................. 21 3.2 EV Charging Rates ..................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Car Charging Networks ............................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Multi-Family Dwellings ................................................................................................................ 21 3.5 Smart Charging ........................................................................................................................... 22

3.5.1 Residential ............................................................................................................................. 22 3.5.1.1 Remote EV Charging Management .............................................................................. 22 3.5.1.2 Interaction/Competition from PEV Telematics .............................................................. 22 3.5.1.3 Integration with Home Energy Management Systems ................................................. 22

3.5.2 Commercial Charging Equipment ......................................................................................... 22 3.5.2.1 Integration with Solar .................................................................................................... 23 3.5.2.2 Smart Grid Integration .................................................................................................. 23 3.5.2.3 V2G ............................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2.4 Ancillary Services ......................................................................................................... 25 3.5.2.5 Vehicle to Building ........................................................................................................ 25

3.6 Implementation Issues ................................................................................................................ 25 3.6.1 Charging Control Device Conflict .......................................................................................... 25 3.6.2 Multiple Charging Networks and Billing Systems .................................................................. 26 3.6.3 Regulatory Restrictions ......................................................................................................... 26 3.6.4 Impact on Utilities .................................................................................................................. 26

3.6.4.1 Generation Capacity ..................................................................................................... 27 3.6.4.2 Impact on Distribution ................................................................................................... 27

3.6.4.2.1. DC Charging Impact ................................................................................................. 27 3.6.4.3 Neighborhood Impact ................................................................................................... 28 3.6.4.4 Impact on Utility Equipment .......................................................................................... 28

Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 29 Demand Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 29

4.1 International Government Financial Support .............................................................................. 29 4.2 U.S. Incentives ........................................................................................................................... 29

4.2.1 Stimulus Spending ................................................................................................................ 29 4.2.2 Tax Credits ............................................................................................................................ 29 4.2.3 State Incentives ..................................................................................................................... 29

4.3 Transportation Fuel Savings ....................................................................................................... 29 4.4 Carbon Emissions and Air Quality .............................................................................................. 30 4.5 Cities Desire to Be Green ........................................................................................................... 31 4.6 Energy Security and Jobs ........................................................................................................... 31 4.7 Smart Grid ................................................................................................................................... 31 4.8 Utility PEV Programs ................................................................................................................... 31

Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 32 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 32

5.1 Equipment Connection Standards .............................................................................................. 32 5.2 Safety Standards ......................................................................................................................... 32 5.3 AC Connectors ............................................................................................................................ 32

5.3.1 SAE ....................................................................................................................................... 32


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5.3.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.3 Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.4 China ..................................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.5 DC Connectors ...................................................................................................................... 34

5.3.5.1 CHAdeMO .................................................................................................................... 34 5.3.5.2 SAE ............................................................................................................................... 34 5.3.5.3 IEC ................................................................................................................................ 34

5.3.6 Combo Connectors ............................................................................................................... 34 5.3.7 Communications Standards .................................................................................................. 35

5.3.7.1 Energy Transfer Standard ............................................................................................ 35 5.3.7.2 Messaging Standard ..................................................................................................... 35

5.4 Impact on Batteries ..................................................................................................................... 36 5.4.1 Impact on the Grid ................................................................................................................. 37

5.5 Wireless Charging ....................................................................................................................... 37 5.5.1 Charging Efficiency ............................................................................................................... 37 5.5.2 Standards .............................................................................................................................. 38

Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 39 Key Industry Players ................................................................................................................................. 39

6.1 EVSE Manufacturers and Service Companies ........................................................................... 39 6.1.1 350Green ............................................................................................................................... 39 6.1.2 AeroVironment Inc. ................................................................................................................ 39 6.1.3 Aker Wade Power Technologies ........................................................................................... 39 6.1.4 Better Place ........................................................................................................................... 40 6.1.5 ClipperCreek .......................................................................................................................... 40 6.1.6 Coulomb Technologies Inc. ................................................................................................... 40 6.1.7 Delphi Automotive LLP .......................................................................................................... 41 6.1.8 Eaton Corporation ................................................................................................................. 41 6.1.9 ECOtality ............................................................................................................................... 41 6.1.10 Elektromotive Ltd. ............................................................................................................. 42 6.1.11 Eltek Valere ....................................................................................................................... 43 6.1.12 Epyon Power ..................................................................................................................... 43 6.1.13 Evatran (Plugless Power) ................................................................................................. 43 6.1.14 General Electric ................................................................................................................. 43 6.1.15 Gridtest Systems ............................................................................................................... 44 6.1.16 HaloIPT ............................................................................................................................. 44 6.1.17 Leviton Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ......................................................................................... 44 6.1.18 Magna International .......................................................................................................... 45 6.1.19 Schneider Electric ............................................................................................................. 45 6.1.20 Siemens AG ...................................................................................................................... 45 6.1.21 WiTricity Corporation ......................................................................................................... 45

6.2 Utilities Offering EVSE and Charging Services ........................................................................... 46 6.2.1 Endesa S.A. ........................................................................................................................... 46 6.2.2 NRG Energy .......................................................................................................................... 46 6.2.3 PowerStream ......................................................................................................................... 46

6.3 Automotive OEMs ....................................................................................................................... 46 6.3.1 Ford ....................................................................................................................................... 46 6.3.2 Mitsubishi ............................................................................................................................... 47

6.4 EVSE-Related Companies .......................................................................................................... 47 6.4.1 IBM ........................................................................................................................................ 47 6.4.2 PJM ....................................................................................................................................... 47

6.5 SAE International ........................................................................................................................ 47 6.6 Silver Spring Networks ................................................................................................................ 48

Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 49


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Market Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................... 49 7.1 Global EV Charging Equipment Sales ........................................................................................ 49

7.1.1 Residential Charging ............................................................................................................. 51 7.1.2 Workplace Charging .............................................................................................................. 52 7.1.3 Public Charging ..................................................................................................................... 53 7.1.4 Private Charging .................................................................................................................... 54

7.2 North America ............................................................................................................................. 55 7.2.1 Western Europe..................................................................................................................... 56 7.2.2 Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 57

7.3 Rapid DC Charging ..................................................................................................................... 57 7.4 Wireless Charging ....................................................................................................................... 58

Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 60 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 60 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 63 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 63 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 66 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 66 Section 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 70

Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 70 Section 12 .................................................................................................................................................. 71 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 71 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 71 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 72


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Section 11

Chart 1.1 Total EV Charging Station Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ...................... 1 Chart 1.2 EVSE Market Segmentation, World Markets: 2015 ................................................................ 2 Chart 2.1 Cumulative Light Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets:

2011-2017 ............................................................................................................................... 4 Chart 2.2 Annual Total Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ........................... 7 Chart 2.3 EVSE Market Segmentation, World Markets: 2015 ................................................................ 8 Chart 3.1 EV IT Management Systems Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2015 ................... 24 Chart 7.1 Total EV Charging Station Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 .................... 49 Chart 7.2 Total EV Charging Station Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ...................... 50 Chart 7.3 Residential Charging Equipment Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ............ 51 Chart 7.4 Workplace Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ............ 52 Chart 7.5 EVSE Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2011-2017 .......................................................... 53 Chart 7.6 Private Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 .................. 54 Chart 7.7 EVSE Unit Sales, North America: 2011-2017 ....................................................................... 55 Chart 7.8 EVSE Unit Sales, Western Europe: 2011-2017 .................................................................... 56 Chart 7.9 EVSE Unit Sales, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017 ........................................................................... 57 Chart 7.10 DC Charging Equipment Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017 ....................... 58 Chart 7.11 Wireless EV Charging Station Units by Region, World Markets: 2013-2017 ........................ 59

Figure 2.1 Residential Access to Charge Spots ....................................................................................... 9 Figure 2.3 Embedded Wireless Charging ............................................................................................... 20 Figure 4.1 Comparison of Energy Cost per Mile between Electric and Gas Vehicles ........................... 30 Figure 5.1 J1772 Connector ................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 5.2 Mennekes Connector ............................................................................................................ 33 Figure 5.3 CHAdeMO Connector ........................................................................................................... 34 Figure 5.4 DC Charging Management .................................................................................................... 36 Figure 5.5 EV Standard Charging Rates ................................................................................................ 37

Table 2.1 Vehicle Roadmap for Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Passenger Vehicles .................................. 5 Table 2.2 European Public EVSE Installation Projects ......................................................................... 14


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Section 12

Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants involved in the electrification of passenger vehicles, including charging station equipment and hardware vendors, utilities, auto manufacturers,electricians, local governments and community leaders, smart grid companies, and others, with a study of the market for vehicle charging equipment. Its major objective is to anticipate the emerging market andlikely future growth for EV charging equipment and how vehicle charging will impact the load on thepower grid and the performance of distribution equipment. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers, as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The reports purpose isnot to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and industries covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identifyand examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through 2017.

Pike Researchs industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports.The key component of Pike Researchs analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-personinterviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analystsare diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including,but not limited to, technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations,government agencies, and the investment community.

Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Researchs analysts and the firmsstaff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited

within this report.These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analysts industry expertise, aresynthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Researchs reports. Greatcare is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknownand assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.

Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiasedview of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interestsand is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered bytechnology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.


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CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:

CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1.

CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years aregiven, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may begiven as well.

Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues,shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressedin year 2011 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


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Published 3Q 2011

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This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC (Pike). This publication may be used only asexpressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied,distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other dataobtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are notedin this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain fromaccessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication.

evce 11 executive summary

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