events vs. trends while other societies can be traced to specific events that lead to their...
Post on 22-Dec-2015
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Events vs.
Trends
Events vs.
Trends
While other While other societies can be societies can be traced to specific traced to specific events that lead events that lead to their collapse, to their collapse, our global society our global society faces a dilemma faces a dilemma
that is that is trend-trend-driven.driven.
Soil erosion, falling Soil erosion, falling water tables, rising water tables, rising
carbon emissions are carbon emissions are not easily reversed.not easily reversed.
Monsoons, droughts, Monsoons, droughts, heat waves are heat waves are specific events, specific events,
temporary temporary repercussions.repercussions.
Food as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak Link
Supply & Supply & Demand are Demand are in a constant in a constant
imbalanceimbalance
Rising Sea LevelsRising Sea LevelsRising Sea LevelsRising Sea Levels
Available Land
Melting ice caps
Soil Erosion
SUPPLY: DEMAND:
Population Growth
Increased animal consumption
Use of grain to fuel cars
Rich vs. Poor countries
Resource Trends
Affecting Supply
Resource Trends
Affecting Supply
Cropland loss to non Cropland loss to non farming:farming: Increase in paving of Increase in paving of
roadsroads Suburban sprawlSuburban sprawl Advancing desertsAdvancing deserts
Cropland loss to non Cropland loss to non farming:farming: Increase in paving of Increase in paving of
roadsroads Suburban sprawlSuburban sprawl Advancing desertsAdvancing deserts
Diversion of irrigation water to Diversion of irrigation water to cities:cities:
Growing population drinks more Growing population drinks more waterwaterCities (Denver) not near large Cities (Denver) not near large bodies of waterbodies of waterOver pumping of aquifersOver pumping of aquifers
Reduction of oil supplies:Reduction of oil supplies:Increased use of automobilesIncreased use of automobilesIncreased food production Increased food production (tillage, irrigation, harvesting(tillage, irrigation, harvestingEasy access oil well running Easy access oil well running drydry
Cropland loss to non farming: People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply
is now dependent on fish farms Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish
Cropland loss to non farming: People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply
is now dependent on fish farms Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish
Results:Results:”Business as usual is no longer a viable ”Business as usual is no longer a viable
option”option”
Results:Results:”Business as usual is no longer a viable ”Business as usual is no longer a viable
option”option”
Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia
discontinuing wheat production as of 2016) Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for
genetically modified organisms
Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia
discontinuing wheat production as of 2016) Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for
genetically modified organisms
Politics of FoodPolitics of Food
Background:* Countries that imported
goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail.
Background:* Countries that imported
goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail.
In 2007 Russia and Argentina started banning exports in
an attempt to keep domestic
food a reasonable price.
Land BuyoutsLand Buyouts Affluent countries (Saudi
Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.
Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.
Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.
Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.
Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.
Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.
ResultsResults
Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.
Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.
Host nations have even more political unrest. Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn. Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land,
greater unemployment rate.
Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.
Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.
Host nations have even more political unrest. Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn. Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land,
greater unemployment rate.
Global Economy PonziGlobal Economy Ponzi
Paul Hawken: Blessed UnrestPaul Hawken: Blessed Unrest
Sir Nicolas Sir Nicolas Stern:Stern:
Sir Nicolas Sir Nicolas Stern:Stern:
The difference between Market Price for The difference between Market Price for fossil fuels and Honest Price is greatfossil fuels and Honest Price is great
Honest Price: What you pay, plus the environment and society costs (in 2009 gas should have been $ 15 per gallon)
Everything from Market PriceCost of climate changeTax subsidies to the oil industryMilitary protection costsHealthcare costs
This type of market behavior is leading to the destruction of natural support systemsDestruction of natural support systems leads to state failure
Failing States: Failing States: CharacteristicsCharacteristicsFailing States: Failing States: CharacteristicsCharacteristics
Failing States: ResultsFailing States: Results
Food shortagesHigh food prices
High percentage of unemployed youth
Political unrestLacking in functional healthcare
systemBreakdown of law and order, loss of
personal security
Food shortagesHigh food prices
High percentage of unemployed youth
Political unrestLacking in functional healthcare
systemBreakdown of law and order, loss of
personal security
Failing States (2008)Failing States (2008)
Scores are based on 12 social, political,
economical, and
military indicators out of 120.
Scores are based on 12 social, political,
economical, and
military indicators out of 120.
Plan B: A Plan to Save CivilizationPlan B: A Plan to Save Civilization
Cutting carbon emissions Stabilizing the population
Eradicating poverty Restoring the earths natural
systems
Cutting carbon emissions Stabilizing the population
Eradicating poverty Restoring the earths natural
systems
Cutting Carbon Emissions
Cutting Carbon Emissions
Dramatically raise energy efficiency
worldwide
By 80% in 2020
Investing in renewable resources
Banning deforestation, planting trees by the
billions
8 Billion
Must Reduce Fertility
Projected 9.2 billion by 2050 with 2.4 billion in
developing countries
Needs to stop before mortality
rate increases
Stabilizing the Population
Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems
Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems
Conserving soil Banning deforestation
Promoting reforestation Restoring fisheries
Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity
Essential to reverse the rise in hunger
Conserving soil Banning deforestation
Promoting reforestation Restoring fisheries
Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity
Essential to reverse the rise in hunger