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Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve: wmwRB (CGE) g‡W‡ji cÖ‡qvM

‡mwjg ivqnvb*

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MZ wZb `k‡K MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ (wmwRB) g‡Wj cÖv‡qvwMK A_©‣bwZK

we‡køl‡Yi GKwU ¸iæZ¡c~Y© nvwZqv‡i cwiYZ n‡q‡Q| wmwRB g‡Wj mgMÖ Drcv`b Kvh©µg,

Drcv`‡bi wbqvgK I Drcv`bKvix cÖwZôvb we‡ePbvq wb‡q ‡Kv‡bv ‡`‡ki A_©bxwZ ev we‡kl

AÂ‡ji Dci A_©‣bwZK bxwZ cwieZ©‡bi mvgwMÖK cÖfve g‡Wwjs‡qi GKwU mgwšZ Dcv‡qi

eë¯’v K‡i| G ai‡bi g‡W‡j Ab¨vb¨ welqI AšÍf©y³ _v‡K †hgb- evRvi I mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK

Dcv`vbmg~n (wewb‡qvM I mÂq, †jb‡`b fvimvg¨ Ges miKvwi ev‡RU)| G g‡W‡ji AviI

myweav n‡jv GKvwaK A_©‣bwZK AvšÍ:ms‡hvM AšÍf©y³ Kivi my‡hvM _v‡K, hv Dbœqb bxwZ

cwieZ©‡bi aviv I †m¸‡jvi cÖwZ KvVv‡gvMZ cÖwZwµqv e¨vL¨vq Kv‡R jv‡M|

wmwRB we‡kølY mweNœ evwÂZKiY KvVv‡gvi AvIZvq ewn¯’ AwfNv‡Zi cÖfve g~j¨vq‡bi

my‡hvM m„wó K‡i| GB g‡W‡ji g~‡j i‡q‡Q Av‡cwÿK g~j¨ cwieZ©‡bi m¤§yLxb wewfbœ A_©‣bwZK

Dcv`v‡bi (†hgb: Lvgvi I cwievi ev Lvbv) AvPiY eY©bvKvix GK¸”Q mgxKiY| µgea©gvb

evRvi †Kw›`ªK A_©bxwZ‡Z g~‡jï cÖ‡f` cÖwZ‡hvwM Kvh©µ‡g m¤ú` cyb:e›U‡bi me©v‡cÿv

¸iæZ¡c~Y© Drm n‡Z cv‡i, hv cieZx©‡Z †M․wYK Av‡qi (Drcv`‡bi DcKiYg~n †_‡K †h Avq

cvIqv hvq) cwieZ©b NUv‡Z cv‡i, Avi Gfv‡e e¨w³MZ Avq eÈ‡biI cwieZ©b NUv‡Z cv‡i|

¯^Zš¿ cvwievwiK †Mvôxi Kj¨vY I `vwi`ª¨ cwiw ’wZi Dci cvwievwiK MÖƒcmg~‡ni e¨w³MZ Avq

eÈb I †fv³vi g~j¨ m~P‡K cwieZ©‡bi wewfbœ cÖfve _vK‡Z cv‡i| GB †cÖÿvc‡U GB cÖe‡Ü

wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi AvIZvq bxwZRwbZ I cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve D`NvU‡b

evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZ‡Z wmwRB g‡Wj eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q| `„k¨Kí¸‡jvi AšÍf©z³ n‡jv k‡mï

Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×, kÖg-wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×, cwievimg~‡ni Rb¨ mvgvwRK myiÿv eve`

eivÏ e„w× Ges cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ| Dc‡i DwjøwLZ welqmg~n we‡køl‡Y 2012 mv‡ji Rb¨

cÖ¯‘yZK…Z mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j (Social Accounting Matrix-SAM) mgwšZ Z_¨fvÐvi

wn‡m‡e eëüZ n‡q‡Q|

* Aa¨vcK, A_©bxwZ wefvM, XvKv wek¦we`¨vjq|


28

2| M‡elYv c×wZ

wmwRB g‡Wj

evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡WjwU PEP Av`k© wbðj g‡W‡ji1 Dci wfwË K‡i wbg©vY Kiv

n‡q‡Q| G g‡W‡j cÖwZwU wk‡íi cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj Lvgvi Drcv`b cÖhyw³i Dci wfwË K‡i

gybvdv‡K m‡e©v”PKiY K‡i _v‡K| LvZ wfwËK Drcv`b wjIbwUd (Leontief) Drcv`b Av‡cÿK

†g‡b P‡j| cÖ‡Z¨K wk‡íi g~j¨ ms‡hvRbx weKívqb evQvB‡qi aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZv Abyhvqx †h․wMK

kÖg I †h․wMK g~jab wb‡q MwVZ| weKívqb cÖhyw³i aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZv Abymv‡i wewfbœ ai‡bi

kÖg‡K Am¤úbœ weKívq‡bi mv‡_ msnZ Kiv nq| †h․wMK g~jab n‡jv wewfbœ ai‡bi g~jab

weKívq‡bi aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZvi mgšq| Abygvb Kiv nq, gaëZ©x DcKiYmg~n m¤ú~Y©iƒ‡c

cwic~iK Ges G¸‡jv‡K Leontief Drcv`b Av‡cÿK †g‡b msnZ Kiv nq|

cvwievwiK Avq ev Lvbv Av‡qi Drm n‡jv kªg Avq, g~jab Avq Ges Ab¨vb¨ Drm †_‡K

M„nxZ n ÍvšÍi Avq| cvwievwiK Avq †_‡K cÖZ¨ÿ Ki ev` w`‡j cwiev‡ii e¨q‡hvM¨ Avq cvIqv

hvq| cvwievwiK mÂq n‡”Q e¨q‡hvM¨ Av‡qi ‣iwLK Av‡cÿK, hv Mo mÂq cÖeYZv †_‡K

Avjv`v cÖvwšÍK mÂq cÖeYZvi my‡hvM m„wó K‡i|

Ki‡cv‡ikb Avq Ki‡cv‡ik‡bi g~jab Av‡qi Ask Ges Ab¨vb¨ Drm †_‡K cÖvß n ÍvšÍi

Av‡qi mgš‡q MwVZ nq| ‡gvU Avq †_‡K eëmvwqK AvqKi ev` w`‡j cÖ‡Z¨K ai‡bi

eëmv‡qi e¨qhvM¨ Avq cvIqv hvq| Abyiƒcfv‡e e¨q‡hvM¨ Avq †_‡K Ab¨vb¨ Dr‡m n ÍvšÍi

cÖ`v‡bi ci †h Aewkóvsk _v‡K Zv n‡jv eëmvwqK mÂq|

miKvi cvwievwiK ev e¨w³MZ ch©v‡q cÖ`Ë Ki, eëmv cÖwZôv‡bi Dci avh©K…Z AvqKi,

cY¨ I Avg`vwb ïé Ges Drcv`b Lv‡Zi Ab¨vb¨ ïé n‡Z Avq K‡i _v‡K| Lvbv eve` †nvK

Avi eëmv eve` †nvK, AvqKi‡K mvwe©K Av‡qi •iwLK Av‡cÿK wn‡m‡e eY©bv Kiv nq|

miKv‡ii PjwZ ev‡RU D×…Ë ev NvUwZ n‡jv (abvZ¥K ev FYvZ¥K mÂq) n‡jv miKv‡ii ivR¯^

Avq I e¨‡qi cv_©K¨| e¨q ej‡Z G‡R›U‡ì‡K cÖ`Ë n ÍvšÍi Ges cY¨ I †mev eve` PjwZ

e¨q‡K †evSvq|

wek¦ n‡Z Avq MwVZ nq Avg`vwb g~j¨ eve` cwi‡kvwaZ A_©, g~jab Av‡qi Ask we‡kl

Ges Af¨šÍixY Dr‡mi n ÍvšÍi mgš‡q| Af¨šÍixY A_©bxwZ‡Z we‡`kx e¨q n‡jv ißvwb g~j¨

eve` e¨q Ges Af¨šÍixY wewfbœ Dr‡m n ÍvšÍi| we‡`k ‡_‡K cÖvwß/Avq I e¨‡qi Zdvr n‡jv

Aewkó we‡k¦i mÂq, hv cig/Abv‡cÿK g~‡j¨ PjwZ ‡jb‡`b fvimvg¨ ev wnmve w¯’wZi mgvb,

wKš‘y wecixZ iƒcx|

1 ‡`Lyb www.pep-net.org

ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve

29

`ªe¨ I †mevi Pvwn`v (Af¨šÍixYfv‡e Drcvw`Z ev Avg`vwbK…Z †nvK) n‡jv Lvbv †fvM

Pvwn`v, wewb‡qvM Pvwn`v, miKvwi Pvwn`v Ges cwienY Pvwn`v ev evwYR¨ Pvwn`vi †hvMdj ev

mgwó| Abygvb Kiv nq †h, Lvbvmg~‡n Stone Geary Dc‡hvwMZv Av‡cÿK (†hLvb ‡_‡K •iwLK

e¨q c×wZ cvIqv hvq) we`¨gvb _v‡K| wewb‡qvM Pvwn`vi AšÍf©y³ n‡jv †gvU ¯’vqx cuywR MVb

Ges Bb‡fbUix‡Z cwieZ©b|

Drcv`bKvixi †hvMvb AvPiY CET Av‡cÿK AvkÖ‡q cÖwZdwjZ nq: EaŸ© ¯Í‡i mvKzj¨

Drcv`b ¯Zš¿ cY¨mg~‡n wbe× Kiv nq; wb¤œ ¯Í‡i cÖwZwU c‡Yï †hvMvb Af¨šÍixY evRvi I

ißvwb evRv‡ii g‡a¨ wefvwRZ| g‡WjwU ÿz ª-‡`k AbywgwZ †_‡K Avjv`v| ¯’vbxq †Kv‡bv

Drcv`bKvix wek¦ evRv‡i we`¨gvb cY¨ g~‡jï (evwn¨K) Zzjbvq c‡Yï myweavRbK bZzb g~j¨

wba©viY K‡i wek¦ evRv‡i Zvi AskMÖnY e„w× Ki‡Z cv‡i| cÖwZ‡hvwM c‡Yï Zzjbvq cÖ¯ÍvweZ

c‡Yï weKívqb gvÎvi Dci wbf©i Ki‡e KZ mn‡R wZwb wek¦evRv‡i Zvi AskMÖnY e„w× Ki‡Z

cv‡ib| Ab¨K_vq, GUv wbf©i Ki‡e ißvwb Pvwn`vi g~j¨-w¯’wZ¯’vcKZvi Dci| Af¨šÍixY

evRv‡i †hme c‡Yï Pvwn`v Av‡Q, Zv n‡jv ‡h․wMK (K‡¤úvwRU) cY¨ Ges ¯’vbxqfv‡e Drcvw`Z

I Avg`vwbK…Z cY¨| GB `yB ai‡bi c‡Yï gv‡S we`¨gvb Am¤ú~Y© weKívqb- weKívqb

ms‡hvMKvix Av‡cÿ‡Ki aªƒe w¯’wZ ’vcKZvi gva¨‡g cÖwZdwjZ nq| ZvB ¯^vfvweKfv‡eB

Avg`vwb evRv‡i cÖwZ‡hvwMZvi m¤§yLxb bq Ggb c‡Yï †ÿ‡Î ‡h․wMK (K‡¤úvwRU) `ª‡eï Pvwn`v

n‡jv Af¨šÍixYfv‡e Drcbœ ª‡eï Pvwn`v| G c×wZ‡Z Af¨šÍixY evRv‡i cÖ‡Z¨K c‡Yï †hvMvb

I Pvwn`vi gv‡S fvimvg¨ _vKv PvB| d¨v±i evRv‡ii fvimvg¨ _vKv PvB| mvgwMÖK wewb‡qvM e¨q

Aek¨B G‡R›U‡ì mÂ‡qi †hvMd‡ji mgvb n‡e| cwi‡k‡l cÖwZwU c‡Yï ißvwb evRv‡i ‡hvMvb

n‡e Pvwn`vi Abyiƒc ev Pvwn`vi mv‡_ m½wZc~Y© |

2.1| evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠj (Social Accounting Matrix) 2012 Gi mswÿß

eY©bv

G cÖe‡Ü 2012 mv‡ji Rb¨ cÖ¯‘ZK…Z evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j eënvi Kiv

n‡q‡Q| G wnmv‡ei AšÍf©y³ i‡q‡Q : (1) 10 ai‡bi `ª‡eï ‡gvU Af¨šÍixY †hvMvb; (2) 10

ai‡bi Kvh©µ‡gi Drcv`b wnmve; (3) Drcv`‡bi 4wU wbqvgK- `yB ai‡bi kÖg Ges `yB ai‡bi

g~jab; (4) 4wU PjwZ cÖvwZôvwbK G‡R‡›U g‡a¨ (Lvbv I AjwMœK…Z g~jab, K‡cv©‡iU ms¯’v,

miKvi Ges Aewkó wek¦) PjwZ GKvD›U UªvbRvKkb; Lvbv wnmv‡e AšÍf©y³ i‡q‡Q 7wU

cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj MÖæc (MÖvg GjvKvi 5wU I kni GjvKvi 2wU); Ges (5) GKwU mgwšZ g~jab

wnmve| evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †g․‡ji MVb mviwY 1-G eY©bv Kiv n‡q‡Q|


30

mviwY 1

2012 mv‡ji Rb¨ cÖ¯‘ZK…Z evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠ‡ji eY©bv

†mU DcKiYmg~‡ni eY©bv

Kvh©µg (10) km¨ I dmj, cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ cY¨, Lwb I D‡Ëvjb,

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨, e ¿ I †cvkvK, nvév g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, fvix

g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY, cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM,

Ab¨vb¨/wewea †mev

`ªe¨ (10) km¨ I dmj, cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ cY¨, Lwb I D‡Ëvjb,

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨, e ¿ I †cvkvK, nvév g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, fvix

g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY, cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM,

Ab¨vb¨/wewea †mev

Drcv`‡bi wbqvgKmg~n (4) A`ÿ kÖwgK, `ÿ kªwgK, g~jab I f~wg

Lvbvmg~n (7) MÖvg GjvKv: f~wgnxb, cÖÖvwšÍK K…lK, ÿz`ª K…lK, e„nr K…lK, K…wlewnf©~Z

kni GjvKv: ¯^í wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó Lvbv, D”P wkwÿZ

cwievi cÖavb wewkó Lvbv

Ab¨vb¨ cÖwZôvbmg~n (4) miKvi, Ki‡cv‡ikb, Aewkó wek¦ (AvšÍR©vwZK), g~jab

Drm: ivqnvb (2014)

2.2| 2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠj Abyhvqx A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv

mviwY 2-G 2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †g․‡j cªwZdwjZ A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvi Abyiƒc

evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| g~j¨ ms‡hvR‡bi w`K w`‡q K…wl Lv‡Zi AšÍf©y³

DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv km¨ I dmj DcLvZ (11.3 kZvsk);

g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis/Drcv`b Lv‡Z kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv e¯¿ I †cvkvK (7.55 kZvsk); Ges †mev Lv‡Z

kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM (27.65 kZvsk)| e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZwU e¨vcKfv‡e

ißvwb †Kw›`ªK| ißvwb-Szwo e¨vcKfv‡e ‡K› ªxf’Z, †Kbbv 88.12 kZvsk ißvwb Av‡m e¯¿ I

†cvkvK LvZ †_‡K| fvix Drcv`b LvZwU e¨vcKfv‡e Avg`vwb wbf©i| ïé nv‡ii †ÿ‡Î Drcv`b

Lv‡Zi Zzjbvq K…wl Lv‡Z ïé nvi Kg i‡q‡Q|


31

mviwY 2

2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠ‡j cÖwZdwjZ A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvi b¨vq evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv

LvZ 1 2 3 4 5 6

Vi/TV Ei/Oi Ei/TE Mi/Oi Mi/TM TAR

km¨ I dmj 11.33 0.42 0.56 9.09 8.05 4.52

Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 1.25 0.07 0.01 2.25 0.25 8.22

Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 6.60 0.16 0.08 2.20 0.75 7.61

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 1.34 1.53 1.59 15.96 10.87 13.38

e¯¿ I †cvkvK 7.55 51.68 88.12 17.57 19.70 25.33

nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.74 2.41 1.44 20.83 8.22 19.59

fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 0.99 1.17 1.26 60.96 43.16 11.77

Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY 16.86 - - - - -

cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 27.65 2.87 6.30 2.42 3.49 -

Ab¨vb¨ †mev 24.69 0.28 0.63 3.65 5.52 -

‡gvU 100.00 ― 100.00 ― 100.00 ―

UxKv: Vi=LvZwfwËK g~j¨ ms‡hvRb, TV=‡gvU g~j¨ ms‡hvRb, Ei=LvZwfwËK ißvwb, Oi=LvZwfwËK

Drcv`b, TE=‡gvU ißvwb, Mi=LvZwfwËK Avg`vwb, TM=‡gvU Avg`vwb, TAR=U¨vwid nvi|

me¸‡jv msL¨v kZKiv nv‡i e¨³ Kiv n‡q‡Q|

Drm: ivqnvb (2014)|

3| evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb I Zvi djvdj

evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡Wj e¨envi K‡i Pvi ai‡bi „k¨Kí cwiPvjbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| †m¸‡jv

n‡jv (K) dmj Drcv`bkxjZv 20 kZvsk e„w×, (L) kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`v 25 kZvsk e„w×,

(M) cwiev‡ii mvgvwRK myiÿvi we`¨gvb eivÏ wØ¸Y Kiv, Ges (N) cÖvK…wZK `y‡hv©M AwfNv‡Zi

`iæb A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷K 5 kZvsk n«vm|

3.1| `„k¨Kí 1: dmj Drcv`bkxjZv 20 kZvsk e„w×

`„k¨Kí 1 Gi AvIZvq wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, †hLv‡b ‡gvU

f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨ n‡jv evwn¨K Avi

mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z|

kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w ’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|

km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve wPÎ 1-G †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| ‡`Lv

†M‡Q, km¨ Lv‡Z G ai‡bi abvZœK Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 2.66 kZvsk

e„w× cv‡e| mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I Af¨šÍixY weµ‡qi Dci GKB ai‡bi cÖfve co‡e| cÖK…Z


32

wewbgq nv‡i AePq NU‡Z cv‡i Ges ga¨eZ©x DcKiY e¨q I cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q n«vm cv‡e,

hvi d‡j ißvwb 2.24 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| AwaKš‘ wRwWwc AemviK (GDP deflator) 2.3

kZvsk n«vm cv‡e|

wPÎ 1: km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi Kvi‡Y cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci cÖfve

(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)

Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|

mviwY 3-G A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZ †f‡` Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci cÖfve

‡`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| me‡P‡q ‡ewk BwZevPK cÖfve jÿ Kiv †M‡Q K…wlLv‡Z †h‡nZz Drcv`b I

ißvwb h_vµ‡g 8.5 kZvsk I 25.2 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| hv‡nvK Af¨šÍixY Drcv`b e„w× cvIqvi

d‡j K…wl Lv‡Z Avg`vwb 16.6 kZvs‡k n«vm cv‡e| wkí I †mev Dfq Lv‡ZB Drcv`b I

ißvwb‡Z BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e| Z‡e me‡P‡q ‡ewk cÖfve co‡e wkí Lv‡Zi Drcv`b I

ißvwb‡Z|

mviwY 3

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ KZ…©K) Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve


LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb

K…wl 8.5 25.2 -16.6

wkí 2.0 2.1 0.5

‡mev 1.3 1.3 1.9

mKj LvZ 2.7 2.2 -0.9


2.66

2.71

2.71

2.75

-2.30

-1.94

-2.39

-2.36

cÖK…Z wRwWwc

‡gvU Drcv`b

(cwigvY)

ißbx cwigvb

‡`kR weµq

(cwigvY)

wRwWwc

AemviK

wewbgq nvi

(cÖK…Z)

ga¨eZx©

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

cÖv_wgK

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0


33

mviwY 4-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| km¨ I dmj Lv‡Z m‡e©v”P

abvZ¥K cÖfve jÿ Kiv †M‡Q G Lv‡Z Drcv`b I ißvwb h_vµ‡g 11.8 I 28.9 kZvsk e„w×

cv‡e| LvZ †Kw›`ªK AvšÍ:ms‡hvM I Drcv`‡bi wbqvgKmg~‡ni cyb:eÈ‡bi `iæY Dc‡hvM I

wbg©vY LvZ e¨wZZ Ab¨ mKj Lv‡ZI BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e| Ab¨vb¨ K…wl wfwËK DcLvZmg~‡ni

g‡a¨ 'cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ c‡Y¨iÕ Dci eo cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e; wkí DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨

ÕcÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨Õ Ges Õe ¿ I †cvkvKÕ DcLv‡Zi Drcv`b 2.3 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e; †mev †Kw›`ªK

DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e ÕcwienY I †hvMv‡hvMÕ †ÿ‡Î Avi

Gi cÖavb KviY n‡jv eo AvKv‡ii AvšÍ:ms‡hvM cÖfve|

mviwY 4

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ KZ…©K) Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve



km¨ I dmj 11.8 28.9 -18.3

Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 4.3 10.8 -8.3

Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 1.2 2.0 -1.4

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 2.3 2.1 0.6

e¯¿ I †cvkvK 2.3 2.2 0.4

nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.5 1.1 1.0

fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 0.9 0.7 0.5

Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY -0.5 - -

cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 2.5 1.4 2.5

Ab¨vb¨ †mev 1.6 0.9 1.6

‡gvU 2.7 2.2 -0.9


wPÎ 2-G km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| km¨ Lv‡Zi

Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×i Kvi‡Y kÖwgKiv (`ÿ I A`ÿ) K…wl LvZ †Q‡o hv‡e Ges wkí I †mev

Lv‡Z †hvM`vb (reallocated) Ki‡e A_©©vr K…wl LvZ †_‡K wkí I †mev Lv‡Z kÖ‡gi ¯’vbvšÍi

NU‡e| `ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb h_vµ‡g 1.75 I 0.7 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e

weavq mvgwóK ch©v‡q Kg©ms¯’v‡bi Dci abvZœK cÖfve co‡e|


34

wPÎ 2: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


wPÎ 3-G cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| me †kÖYxi

cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq e„w× cv‡e| MÖvgvÂ‡j Avq me‡P‡q †ewk e„w× cv‡e f~wgnxb cwiev‡ii Ges

knivÂ‡j e„w× cv‡e ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwiev‡ii Avq| G †_‡K ‡evSv hvq †h,

km¨ wfwËK K…wl‡Z abvZ¥K Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ evsjv‡`‡ki A‡cÿvK…Z `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jvi

Rb¨ me©vwaK mydj wb‡q Avb‡e|

wPÎ 3: cwievimg~‡ni cÖK„Z Av‡qi Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve


3.2| `„k¨Kí 2: kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`vi 25 kZvsk e„w×

GB „k¨K‡í kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`vi †ÿ‡Î 25 kZvsk e„w× we‡ePbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| GB

†cÖÿvc‡U wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, hLv‡b ‡gvU f~wg ÷K,

Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨ n‡jv evwn¨K Avi mvKzj¨

wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi

†hvMvb w ’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|

2.13

1.83

1.75

2.13 2.07 0.70

-5.74

-7.55

`ÿ

A`ÿ

K…wl

wkí

‡mev

mKj LvZ

3.47

2.91

2.21

0.47

2.34

2.70

1.69

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb

cwievi

MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK

K…wl cwievi

MÖvgxY †QvU K…wl

cwievi

MÖvgxY eo K…wl

cwievi

MÖvgxY AK…wl

cwievi

kû‡i ¯^í-wkwÿZ

cwievi

kû‡i D”P-wkwÿZ

cwievi

4.00

2.00

0.00

-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00

-10.00


35

wPÎ 4-G ißvwb AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| G ai‡bi BwZevPK

ißvwb Pvwn`v AwfNv‡Zi d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 8 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| cÿvšÍ‡i mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I

Af¨šÍixY weµq h_vµ‡g 8.3 I 7.8 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| GQvov mvgwMÖK ißvwb e„w× cv‡e 13

kZvsk| cÖK…Z wewbgq nv‡ii DcPq NU‡e Ges wRwWwc AemviK, ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I

cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q e„w× cv‡e|

wPÎ 4 : cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


mviwY 5 †_‡K ‡`Lv hv‡”Q †h, Drcv`b I ißvwb cwigv‡Yi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve

co‡e wkí Lv‡Z| Zvic‡i co‡e †mev Lv‡Z| e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZ †`‡ki me©e„nr kÖgNb ißvwb

LvZ nIqvq G Lv‡Z G ai‡bi cÖfve hyw³m½Z|

mviwY 5

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ †f‡`) Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cªfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


K…wl 4.3 1.5 20.5

wkí 9.7 14.1 13.7

‡mev 8.7 2.1 16.4

mKj LvZ 8.3 13.1 14.5

Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|

mviwY 6-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ

n‡e e¯¿ I †cvkvK Lv‡Z Ges wØZxq m‡e©v”P cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e nvév Drcv`b Lv‡Z| K…wli

AšÍf©y³ DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e Õcï m¤ú` I gvsmRvZ

cY¨Õ Lv‡Z| ißvwb Lv‡Zi mwnZ e„nr AvšÍms‡hvM cÖfv‡ei Kvi‡Y †mev Lv‡Zi AvIZvfz³

DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a me‡P‡q †ewk abvZœK cÖfve co‡e Ab¨vb¨ †mev Ges cwienY I †hvMv‡hvM

Lv‡Z|

8.01

8.31

13.14

7.85

6.19

5.83

3.76

6.16

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

cÖK…Z wRwWwc

‡gvU Drcv`b

(cwigvY)

ißbx cwigvb

‡`kR weµq

(cwigvY)

wRwWwc

AemviK

wewbgq nvi

(cÖK…Z)

ga¨eZx©

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

cÖv_wgK

Drcv`‡bi e¨q


36

mviwY 6

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cªfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


km¨ I dmj 3.9 2.6 20.0

Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ `ªe¨vw` 5.1 4.2 19.8

Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 5.0 -6.5 25.2

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 9.4 12.6 16.7

e¯¿ I †cvkvK 11.7 14.4 14.2


fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.3 -4.4 12.2

Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY 6.3 - -


Ab¨vb¨ †mev 10.2 1.9 17.3

‡gvU 8.3 13.1 14.5


wPÎ 5-G ißvwb AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| kÖgNb ißvwb Lv‡Zi kÖg

Pvwn`v e„w×i Kvi‡Y wZbwU e„nr Lv‡Z `ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e|

`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î m‡e©v”P Kg©ms¯’vb n‡e K…wl Lv‡Z| cÿvšÍ‡i A`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î me‡P‡q

†ewk Kg©ms¯’vb n‡e wkí Lv‡Z| kÖgNb ißvwb Lv‡Z e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZ A`ÿ kÖwgK wb‡qvR‡bi

eo LvZ nIqvq D³ Lv‡Z G ai‡bi cªfve Aek¨¤¢vex|

wPÎ 5: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


20.39

19.69

16.32

16.63

18.94

19.66

15.39

16.57

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

`ÿ

A`ÿ

K…wl

wkí

‡mev

mKj LvZ


37

wPÎ 6 †_‡K ‡`Lv hvq †h, mKj cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cvwievwiK †Mvôxi cÖK…Z Avq e„w× cv‡e|

Z‡e A‡cÿvK…Z `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jvi †ÿ‡Î †ewk cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e| MÖvgvÂ‡j Avq me‡P‡q

†ewk e„w× cv‡e f~wgnxb cwiev‡ii Ges knivÂ‡j e„w× cv‡e ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó

cwiev‡ii Avq| G †_‡K ‡evSv hvq †h, km¨ wfwËK K…wl‡Z abvZ¥K Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ

evsjv‡`‡ki A‡cÿvK…Z `wi ª cwievi¸‡jvi Rb¨ me©vwaK mydj wb‡q Avb‡e|

wPÎ 6: cwievi mg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


3.3| `„k¨Kí 3: cwievimg~‡ni ‡ÿ‡Î mvgvwRK myiÿvi eivÏ wØ¸Y Kiv

GB „k¨K‡í cwievimg~‡ni Rb¨ mvgvwRK myiÿvq we`¨gvb eivÏ wØ¸Y Kivi welqwU

we‡ePbvq †bqv n‡q‡Q| GB †cÖÿvc‡U wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv

n‡q‡Q, †hLv‡b ‡gvU f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨

n‡jv evwn¨K Avi mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab

LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w¯’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji

AwfwnZ g~j¨|

wPÎ 7-G mvgvwRK myiÿvi AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| mvgvwRK

myiÿvq Giƒc eivÏ e„w×‡Z mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve e¨vcK n‡e bv, †Kbbv cÖK…Z wRwWwc,

mvgwMÖK Drcv`b, ißvwb I Af¨šÍixY weµq mvgvb¨ e„w× cv‡e| AwaKš‘ wRwWwc AemviK

(GDP deflator), cªK…Z wewbgq nvi, ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨‡qi

Dci wKwÂr nZvkve¨ÄK (depressing) cÖfve co‡e|

MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb

MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK

K…wl cwievi


cwievi

MÖvgxY eo K…wl

cwievi

MÖvgxY AK…wl

cwievi


cwievi


cwievi

9.36

8.77

8.61

9.20

8.53

9.49

9.14

9.60

9.40

9.20

9.00

8.80

8.60

8.40

8.20

8.00


38

wPÎ 7: cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZmg~‡ni †ÿ‡Î Drcv`b I ißvwbi Dci cÖfve BwZevPK n‡jI Zv n‡e

mvgvb¨| mviwY 7 †_‡K †`Lv hvq, wkí Lv‡Z Drcv`b I ißvwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK

cÖfve co‡e| †h‡nZz mvgvwRK myiÿv `wi ª Rb‡Mvôxi µq ÿgZv e„w× K‡i ‡m‡nZz K…wlRvZ

`ª‡eï Avg`vwb Pvwn`v e„w× cv‡e|

mviwY 7

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



K…wl 1.0 0.6 1.4

wkí 1.1 0.7 -0.1

‡mev 0.0 1.0 1.1

mKj LvZ 0.5 0.7 0.2


mviwY 8-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| K…wli AvIZvfz³ DcLvZmg~‡ni

g‡a¨ Ôkm¨ I dmjÕ Ges Ôcïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ `ªe¨Õ DcLv‡Zi e¨vcK we¯Ívi NU‡e Ges wkí

Lv‡Zi DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ cÖwµqvRvZ Lv‡`ï †ÿ‡Î Drcv`‡bi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve

cwijwÿZ n‡e| Avi Zv n‡e mvgvwRK myiÿv eve` eivÏ e„w×i Kvi‡Y `wi ª Rb‡Mvôxi Avq

e„w× cvIqvq Lv`¨km¨ I cÖwµqvRvZ Lv‡`ï evowZ Pvwn`v m„wó nIqvq|

cÖK…Z wRwWwc

‡gvU Drcv`b

(cwigvb)

ißbx cwigvb

‡`kR weµq

(cwigvb)

wRwWwc

AemviK

wewbgq nvi

(cÖK…Z)

gaëZx©

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

cÖv_wgK

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

0.8

0.4

0.42

0.50

0.69

0.49

-0.26

-0.26

-0.13

-0.26


39

mviwY 8

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



km¨ I dmj 1.4 0.7 1.5

Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 1.4 0.6 1.7

Lwb I D‡Ëvjb -0.3 0.0 -0.6

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 2.4 1.4 2.1

e¯¿ I †cvkvK 1.1 0.7 1.4


fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -0.9 -0.2 -1.5



Ab¨vb¨ †mev 1.5 1.0 1.1

‡gvU 0.5 0.7 0.2


mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNv‡Zi d‡j wKQz BwZevPK ¯^ígvÎvi Kg©ms¯’vb RwbZ cÖfve m„wó n‡e

(wPÎ 8)| A_©bxwZi wZbwU cÖavb Lv‡ZB `ÿ I A`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e| `ÿ

kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î Kg©ms¯’vb me‡P‡q †ewk e„w× cv‡e †mev Lv‡Z Ges A`ÿ kÖwgK‡`i †ÿ‡Î e„w×

cv‡e K…wl Lv‡Z|

wPÎ 8: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


`ÿ

A`ÿ

0.69

0.56

0.81

0.79

1.32

0.55

0.69

0.76

K…wl

wkí

‡mev

mKj LvZ

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00


40

wPÎ 9 †_‡K ‡`Lv hvq, mKj cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq evo‡e| Z‡e MÖvg I

knivÂ‡ji abx cwiev‡ii ‡P‡q `wi`ª Rb‡Mvôxi Avq †ewk e„w× cv‡e| Gi g~j KviY n‡jv

mvgvwRK myiÿv Kg©m~wP g~jZ `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jv‡K D‡Ïk¨ K‡iB cÖYqb Kiv n‡q‡Q| MÖvg I

knivÂ‡j h_vµ‡g MÖvgxY f~wgnxb cwievi I ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwievi¸‡jvB

†ewk jvfevb n‡e|

wPÎ 9 : cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


3.4| „k¨Kí 4: cÖvK…wZK `y‡hv©M AwfNv‡Zi `iæY A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷‡K 5 kZvsk n«vm

`„k¨Kí 4 †_‡K †`Lv hv‡”Q, cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ (f~wgK¤ú, eb¨v, N~wY©So ev Ab¨

‡Kv‡bv cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM NwUZ) Gi Kvi‡Y A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷K 5 kZvsk n«vm cvq| GB

`„k¨K‡íi AvIZvq wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, ‡hLv‡b mvKzj¨

f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, KvwiMwi cwieZ©b, mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z msiÿY ZvwjKv, miKvwi mÂq Ges PjwZ

wnmve fvimvg¨ evwn¨K,Avi mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q Ges mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q Af¨šÍixY e‡j

MY¨ Kiv nq| g~jab LvZ wfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w¯’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq

nvi g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|

wPÎ 10-G y‡h©vM AwfNvZRwbZ mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| G ai‡bi

cÖfv‡ei d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 2.28 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e| mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I Af¨šÍixY weµ‡qi

†ÿ‡ÎI GKB ai‡bi †bwZevPK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e| cÖK…Z wewbgq nv‡ii †ÿ‡Î AbyK~j

Ae¯’v weivR Ki‡e Ges wRwWwc AemviK (GDP deflator), ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I

cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q e„w× cv‡e| Gi d‡j ißvwb 2.63 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e|

4.32

3.25

2.10

2.31

1.15

2.14

1.70

MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb

MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK

K…wl cwievi


cwievi

MÖvgxY eo K…wl

cwievi

MÖvgxY AK…wl

cwievi


cwievi


cwievi

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00


41

wPÎ 10 : cÖavb cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK Pj‡Ki Dci cÖvK…wZK y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



mviwY 9-G A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZ †f‡` Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci cÖfve

†`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| m‡e©v”P †bwZevPK cÖfve co‡e K…wl Lv‡Z, †hLv‡b Drcv`b 2.7 kZvsk I

ißvwb 5.2 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e| Gi d‡j K…wl Lv‡Z Avg`vwb e„w× cv‡e 3.8 kZvsk| wkí I

†mev Dfq Lv‡Zi Drcv`b I ißvwbi Dci FYvZœK cÖfve co‡jI me‡P‡q †ewk cÖfve co‡e

wkí Lv‡Z|

mviwY 9

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



K…wl -2.7 -5.2 3.8

wkí -2.5 -2.6 -0.1

‡mev -2.1 -2.3 0.3

mKj LvZ -2.3 -2.6 0.3


mviwY 10-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| †`Lv †M‡Q, mKj Lv‡Z

Drcv`b I ißvwb Kg‡e Z‡e m‡e©v”P FYvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Zi

Drcv`‡bi Dci| Gici m‡e©v”P †bwZevPK cÖfve co‡e Lbb I D‡Ëvjb Lv‡Zi Drcv`‡bi

Dci| wkí I †mev LvZfz³ DcLvZmg~‡ni Zzjbvq K…wl Lv‡Zi AvIZvfz³ mKj DcLv‡Zi

Avg`vwb AwaK gvÎvq e„w× cv‡e| Avi Zv n‡e g~jZ cwievi¸‡jvi †g․wjK Lv`¨ Pvwn`v c~i‡Yi

Kvi‡Y|

2.46

2.40

1.58

2.46

-2.28

-2.34

-2.63

2.31

cÖK…Z wRwWwc

‡gvU Drcv`b

(cwigvb)

ißbx cwigvb

‡`kR weµq

(cwigvb)

wRwWwc

AemviK

wewbgq nvi

(cÖK…Z)

ga¨eZx©

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

cÖv_wgK

Drcv`‡bi e¨q

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0


42

mviwY 10

Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



km¨ I dmj -2.6 -5.2 3.8

Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` -1.8 -4.5 4.1

Lwb I D‡Ëvjb -3.2 -5.4 4.2

cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ -1.8 -2.3 0.8

e¯¿ I †cvkvK -2.5 -2.6 0.3

nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -2.7 -3.1 0.4

fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -4.4 -4.3 -0.6


cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM -2.2 -2.3 -0.3

Ab¨vb¨ †mev -1.8 -2.4 0.6

‡gvU -2.3 -2.6 0.3


wPÎ 11-G cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| g~jab ÷K

K‡g hvIqvi Kvi‡Y kÖ‡gi Pvwn`v (`ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwgK) mvgvb¨ e„w× cv‡e| Avi Zv

n‡e g~jZ kÖg I g~ja‡bi g‡a¨Kvi ¯^ígvÎvi substitution ‡_‡K RvZ cÖfv‡ei Kvi‡Y|

K…wlLv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb D‡jøL‡hvM¨ nv‡i e„w× †c‡jI wkí I †mev Lv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e AwZ

mvgvb¨| G †_‡K †evSv hv‡”Q †h, G ai‡bi cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ evsjv‡`‡ki Kg©ms¯’v‡b

msNwUZ KvVv‡gvMZ cwieZ©b‡K cv‡ë †`‡e| A_P KvVv‡gvMZ cwieZ©‡b kÖwgKiv K…wl LvZ

‡Q‡o wkí I †mev Lv‡Z wbhy³ n‡e e‡j cÖZ¨vkv Kiv nq|

wPÎ 11 : Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci cÖvK…wZK y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)


me ai‡bi cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq n«vm cv‡e (wPÎ 12)| MÖvgvÂ‡j g~jab ÷‡K G ai‡bi

cwiev‡ii Ae`vb me©v‡cÿv †ewk nIqvq MÖvgxY AK…wlwfwËK cwievi¸‡jvi cÖK…Z Avq

3.32

3.22

0.67

0.34

0.40

0.62

0.05

0.60

`ÿ

A`ÿ

K…wl

wkí

‡mev

mKj LvZ

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00


43

e¨vcKfv‡e K‡g hv‡e | GKB Kvi‡Y knivÂ‡j D”P wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwievi¸‡jvi

cÖK…Z Avq me‡P‡q †ewk K‡g hv‡e| Z‡e `wi`ª cwiev‡ii Rb‡Mvôxi DciI e¨vcK †bwZevPK

cÖfve co‡e|

wPÎ 12: cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve



4| Dcmsnvi

G cÖe‡Ü PviwU `„k¨K‡íi AvIZZvq wewfbœ bxwZ I cÖvK„wZK `y‡hv©M RwbZ AwfNv‡Zi

my`~icÖmvix A_©‣bwZK I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve we‡køl‡Y MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ (CGE)

g‡Wj eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q| `„k¨Kí¸‡jvi AšÍf©y³ n‡jv km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×, kÖg wbweo

ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×, cwievimg~‡ni mvgvwRK myiÿvq eivÏ e„w× I cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ| GB

cÖe‡Ü MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ g‡Wj I mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j 2012 Gi cvkvcvwk PviwU

wmgy‡jkb †_‡K cÖvß djvdj wek`fv‡e Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| wmgy‡jkb †_‡K †`Lv †M‡Q,

k‡mï Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× I kÖg wbweo LvZmg~‡ni ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×i d‡j `wi ª cwievimg~n

abx cwievi¸‡jvi Zzjbvq †ewk jvfevb nIqvi cvkvcvwk cÖK…Z wRwWwc e„w×, ißvwb e„w×,

Kg©ms¯’vb I cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Avq e„w× A‡_© A_©bxwZ‡Z e¨vcK BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e|

hv‡nvK cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ Kg©ms¯’v‡bi KvVv‡gvMZ iƒc cv‡ë †`qvi SzuwK •Zwimn cÖK…Z

wRwWwc, ißvwb I cwiev‡ii cÖK„Z Av‡qi Dci nZvkve¨vÄK (depressing) cÖfve †dj‡Z

cv‡i| cwi‡k‡l mvgvwRK myiÿv Lv‡Z eivÏ e„w×i ìæY mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK I LvZwfwËK cÖfve

mxwgZ n‡jI cÖK…Z Avq e„w×i Kvi‡Y MÖvg I kni Dfq GjvKvi `wi ª cwievi¸‡jv e¨vcKfv‡e

jvfevb n‡e|

MÖš’cwÄ

Raihan, S. (2014): “Updating the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh, India,

Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka for the Year 2012,” paper prepared for UNESCAP

Subregional Office for South and South-West Asia (SRO-SSWA).

MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb

cwievi

MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK

K…wl cwievi


cwievi

MÖvgxY eo K…wl

cwievi

MÖvgxY AK…wl

cwievi


cwievi


cwievi

-1.42

-1.41

-1.20

0.94

-1.46

-1.07

-1.33

0.00

-0.20

-0.40

-0.60

-0.80

-1.00

-1.20

-1.40

-1.60

evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k k‡íi aax‡b a bxwzwe¯§…z i kg...

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