ex-ante evaluation of improved potato varieties for sub-saharan africa
DESCRIPTION
In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, potato plays an important role as a food security crop. Yet, technological improvements to boost potato productivity have so far not been extensively utilized. Moreover, it remains unclear which potential impacts can be expected from future technological innovations in potato production in the region. To shed light on this question, a scenario of the development and diffusion of improved potato varieties for nine countries in Eastern and Central Africa is developed and assessed. The scenario involves varieties which combine a number of improvements in pro-poor, productivity enhancing traits and is analysed using an economic partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. Taking into account spill over effects across markets and countries, the analysis finds positive net welfare effects at the global level, ranging from 60 m US$ to 403 m US$. Global returns on investment are positive between 20% and 37%. Effects of the intervention on potato supply in the target countries range from 0.5% to 8.5%. Potato producers in these countries are found to benefit, but producers of other commodities and in other countries beyond the region are negatively affected. Lower market prices for potatoes and other commodities lead to welfare gains to consumers worldwide and in the region. At the level of the target countries, the improved potato varieties are found to generate returns on investment between 20% and over 70%, depending mainly on the level of adoption. The analysis shows that investing in crop improvement and variety development for Sub-Saharan Africa can be a worthwhile undertaking with returns that easily justify intervention. However, it also highlights the importance of variety diffusion for the intra-regional distribution and the magnitude of the impacts and suggests putting emphasis in seed systems development to promote quick dissemination and high adoption levels.TRANSCRIPT
AFRICAN POTATO ASSOCATION CONFERENCE 2013
Naivasha, Kenya, June 30 – July 4, 2013
Ex-ante Evaluation of Improved Potato Varieties for Sub-Saharan
Africa
Ulrich Kleinwechter, Guy Hareau, Merideth Bonierbale, Manuel Gastelo and Dieudonne Harahagazwe
International Potato Center (CIP)
1. Introduction
• Strong expansion of potato production and consumption in
SSA (Low et al., 2007)
• Multiple and important roles in local food systems
• Increase food availability and aggregate efficiency of food systems
• Short vegetation cycle and suitability to marginal environment
• Provision of income generation opportunities • Cash crop and processing
• Grown in regions with high incidence of poverty, undernutrition and food insecurity and high population density
1. Introduction
• Steady but slow yield growth in the past, main production increases from area expansions
• High potential of technological innovations to increase productivity• High potential of technological innovations to increase productivity
• Potentially high returns on investment and strong impacts on poverty and hunger (Anderson et al. 2010)
Technological improvements in potatoes “an underexploited resource” (Alexandratos, 1997)
• Ongoing breeding efforts by CIP and NARS in the region
• What potential impacts can be expected from future improvement of potato varieties for SSA?
Ex-ante assessment of potential impacts using an agricultural sector simulation model
2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Integrated modeling framework which combines an economic global agricultural sector model with a water simulation model
• Food module
• Projections of agricultural production, demand, trade flows and • Projections of agricultural production, demand, trade flows and prices on a regional scale
• Partial-equilibrium model
• 40 agricultural commodities
• 155 regions and 126 water basins, which combine into 281 “food production units” (FPUs)
• Water module
• Simulation of water availability for agriculture and other uses
• Multi-period model: 2000-2050
2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Demand depicted at regional level
• Different demand components: Food, feed, biofuels, other uses
• Represented by set of demand functions• Represented by set of demand functions
• Agricultural production takes place at FPU level
• Depicted by area and yield functions:
Yield shifter
Integration of new technologies via shifters in yield functions
3. Scenario- Description of the technology
• Improved potato varieties for SSA• Higher yield potential• Higher yield potential
• Late-blight and virus resistance
• Heat tolerance
• Processing quality
• 30% higher yields
• Nine target countries
• Total investment: 9.8m US$ (4.29m NPV,
2000 constant prices)
• Project duration: 12 years Source: Theisen and Thiele (2008).
EthiopiaUganda
Rwanda
Burundi
DR Congo
Kenya
Tanzania
MozambiqueMalawi
3. Scenario- Project description and cost
Activity Description Output Duration Total cost
1. Breeding at
CIP
One breeding
cycle, starting
Advanced clones with
improved traits
4 years 3.5m US$
CIP cycle, starting
from LBHT
population
improved traits
2. Breeding and
seed
multiplication at
NARS
Further selection,
seed
multiplication
Improved potato
varieties, potato seeds
for dissemination
4 years 3.5m US$
3. Dissemination Dissemination of
potato seeds,
extension
New varieties adopted
by farmers
4 years 2.1m US$
Total 12 years 9.1m US$
3. Scenario - Dissemination and adoption
• Release: 2020, by NARS
• Dissemination: Partnerships between NARS, NGO and private sector 40
60
80
100
% o
f cu
ltiv
ate
d a
rea
High adoption
NARS, NGO and private sector
• Four tier model of adoption
• Very low: 5% after 10 years (MLW, MOZ)
• Low: 10% (DRC,TZA)
• Middle: 20% (BUR, ETH, KEN, UGA)
• High: 30% (RWA)
• Analysis of three adoption cases
• “High”: as above
• “Medium”: 2/3 of “high”
• “Low”: 1/3 of “high”
0
20
40
% o
f cu
ltiv
ate
d a
rea
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
0
20
40
60
80
100
% o
f cu
ltiv
ate
d a
rea
Low adoption
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
1800
2000
Kenya
To
tal s
up
ply
of p
ota
toe
s [1
00
0 m
t]4. Results- Production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Traditional (High adoption) Improved (High adoption)
To
tal s
up
ply
of p
ota
toe
s [1
00
0
4. Results- Production
Ch
an
ge
ag
ain
st b
ase
line [
%]
8
9
10
Total potato supply in target countries, 2050
Ch
an
ge
ag
ain
st b
ase
line [
%]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
4. Results - Prices
-0.02
0
World market prices of selected commodities, 2050
Ch
an
ge a
ga
inst b
ase
line [%
]
-0.14
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
Potato Sweet potato Cassava Rice Wheat
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
Ch
an
ge a
ga
inst b
ase
line [%
]
4. Results - Consumption
0.1
0.12
Per-capita potato consumption, 2050
Ch
an
ge a
ga
inst b
ase
line
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
Ch
an
ge a
ga
inst b
ase
line
[% ]
4. Results - Economic welfare
60.0
70.0
Net welfare changes
[m U
S$
at 2
00
0 c
on
sta
nt p
rice
s]
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NP
V
[m U
S$
at 2
00
0 c
on
sta
nt p
rice
s]
4. Results - Returns on investment
0.6
0.7
0.8
IRR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
4. Results - Global effects
1000
1200
Welfare and global benefits
[m U
S$
at 2
00
0 c
on
sta
nt p
rice
s]
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Δ Producer surplus Δ Consumer surplus Δ Net welfare Net benefits
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NP
V
[m U
S$
at 2
00
0 c
on
sta
nt p
rice
s]
5. Conclusions and outlook
• Positive production impacts in target countries
• Positive net welfare effects and high ROI in target • Positive net welfare effects and high ROI in target countries • Comparable with findings from previous impact
evaluations of improved varieties
• Investment in improved potato varieties justified from economic point of view
• Global analysis• Consumers benefit
• Producers lose
• Positive net benefit
5. Conclusions and outlook
• Pivotal role of adoption levels• Importance of market acceptance and sufficiently good
seed systems for quick dissemination and adoption
• Complementary investments in seed systems• Complementary investments in seed systems
• Showcase application of IMPACT modeling framework for ex-ante assessment of agricultural technologies
• Advantages
• Global geographic coverage, comprehensive commodity coverage
• Capture complex market-mediated interactions across commodities and countries
• Scope for improvement:
• Assumptions on costs, adoption and dissemination
• Combination of IMPACT with biophysical modeling tools (crop models, pest and disease models)
• Improvement of baseline data (FAO!)
Thank you Thank you for your
attention!
References
Alexandratos, N. (1997). World agriculture: towards 2010 : an FAO study. Chichester, New York, Brisbane: Wiley.
Anderson, P., Barker, I., Best, S., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Hareau, G., & Leon Velarde, C. (2010). Importance of roots and tubers in the world food Leon Velarde, C. (2010). Importance of roots and tubers in the world food system; digging up the evidence. Unpublished manuscript, Lima, Peru, International Potato Center (CIP).
Low, J., Barker, I., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Forbes, G., Lemaga, B., & Priou, S. (2007). Emerging trends and advances in potato research relevant to defining the way forward for the potato sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Potato Association Conference Proceedings, Vol . 7 (pp. 1-17). Alexandria, Egypt.
FAO. (2012). FAOSTAT database.
Theisen, K., & Thiele, G. (2008). Implementing CIP’s Vision: Impact targeting. Lima, Peru.