exane2

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.

INVESTMENT DAILY 06 MARCH 2013

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TP EPS % ch. Rating %ch. 13e 14e

LARGE CAPS

ABF (=) (-) 29 3

Elekta (+) (5) (5) (1)

SMALL & MID CAPS

Brembo (+) 27 (8)

Elia (=) 9 2 (2)

Pace (=) 7 5 7

TF1 (+) 6 4 9

Ansaldo STS (+) (7) (5)

Steria (+) (6) (6)

AGENDA

RESULTS Admiral Group / First Quantum Minerals Ltd / Henkel Pref / Inmarsat / Legal & General / Ophir Energy / SCOR / Swatch Group B / Verbund...

MEETINGS

Millicom / Nordea...

DIVIDENDS

BHP Billiton / CRH Plc / Shire Plc / TUI Travel...

IN THE PRESS

Danske Bank / Edenred / Sacyr / Vodafone Group ...

See document

PICK OF THE DAY

ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) (-) European Sugar: a turn for the worse The market is rightly anticipating that the existing EU sugar regime will substantively be rolled forward to 2020. We would however caution that the devil with such legislation is always in the detail. We would not be at all surprised to see some measures targeted at further easing the market. While in aggregate we are comfortable with consensus estimates, this is solely as a consequence of materially lifting our Primark estimates. We believe the debate at ABF will now shift from pondering Primark positives, to Sugar negatives. Mindful of the stock’s marked outperformance and the uncertainty surrounding the prospects in European Sugar, we believe it is now time for the shares to take a breather. BEIERSDORF AG (+) Q412 results and 15 Questions for Management There were some interesting observations during the Q4 presentation on current and forthcoming innovations, and we get the sense that this is a true turnaround. Whereas sell-siders like us would like more margin, now, CEO Heidenreich does not work on the sell-side. For this turnaround to be sustainable, it needs to be top-line driven. The 16% margin will follow. Beiersdorf has all the makings of being the next Henkel or Estee Lauder: a poor track record but with a new management team that finally realises the clear potential. We see a material rebound in organic sales growth and material expansion in margins in the quarters/years ahead. Near-term, the shares could pause here. MORRISON (-) Unrealistic to emerge unscathed from a perfect storm Morrison has a lot on its plate: trading is lagging the competition by a distance, sales are haemorrhaging to the discounters, the store of the future is seemingly underwhelming and convenience and on-line offerings have to be built. Investors need a firm base to forecasts and reassurance that management has a coherent plan. We fear Morrison will be insufficiently bold on the former and will struggle to communicate the latter. The commitment to grow the DPS by 10% again in 2013/14e offers some support in a c.5% yield but, for us, the shares are best avoided.

KEY PUBLICATIONS

LARGE CAPS

ELEKTA (+): Ambitious but believable guidance - Fundamentals still valid

WOOD GROUP (+): Good results and solid 2013 guidance

SMALL & MID CAPS ANSALDO STS (+): 2013 guidance below our estimate, but no big concerns

BANCO POPOLARE (+): Investment case driven by (adequate) solvency

BREMBO (+): Growth story continues unabated

ELIA (=): German gains, Belgian pains

PACE (=): Transforming Core Economics - Check

ROCKWOOL INTL B (+): 2012 FY postview plus 15 questions for management

STERIA (+): Increasing speculative appeal

TF1 (+): Tough ad trends but appeal remains

ECONOMY / STRATEGY / SECTOR / QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH SEMICONDUCTOR: A relatively strong start to the year

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)


ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) (-) Target price: 1,870p | 0% Upside Food & HPC - United Kingdom | ABF LN - ABF.L

Price at 05 March 2013 | 1,866p Report

European Sugar: a turn for the worse

Rating Target price EPS 13e EPS 14e

(=) (-) 29% 3%

Rating Underperform Food & HPC Underperform Mkt cap (GBPbn / EURbn) 14.7 / 17.1 Free float (GBPbn / EURbn) 6.6 / 7.7 EV (GBPbn / EURbn) 16.3 / 18.9

Financials 09/12 09/13e 09/14e 09/15e

EPS, Adjusted (p) 87.2 94.7 104.3 120.0 EPS, IBES (p) 87.2 95.3 105.5 116.2 Net dividend (p) 28.5 31.2 34.4 39.6 Sales (GBPm) 12,252 13,156 14,240 15,322 EBITA, Adj. (GBPm) 1,077 1,154 1,258 1,400 Net profit, Adj.(GBPm) 688 747 823 947 ROCE (%) 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.8 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1

Valuation metrics* 09/12 09/13e 09/14e 09/15e

P/E (x) 13.7 19.7 17.9 15.6 Net yield (%) 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 FCF yield (%) 4.6 2.6 3.7 5.0 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 10.5 9.5 8.4 EV/EBITA (x) 10.4 14.1 12.7 11.1 EV/CE (x) 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 * Yearly average price for FY ended 09/12

Performance (%) 1w 1m 3m 12m

Absolute 2 6 27 59 Rel. MSCI Europe (1) 1 11 26 Rel. Food & HPC (1) 4 13 35

Jeff Stent (+44) 207 039 9469 [email protected]

James Wyatt (+44) 203 430 8421 [email protected]

Eamonn Ferry (+44) 207 039 9404 [email protected]

James Bushnell (+44) 207 039 9409 [email protected]

A phenomenal share price performer Both this year (YTD) and last, ABF has been the best performer within our sector coverage, this performance principally stemming from the re-rating of Primark.

And all looks good in EU Sugar? With EU Sugar prices strengthening at well over EUR700/T, FX upgrades looming and the existing regime set to be rolled-forward to 2020, all looks good in sugar. At least that is what consensus believes…

The EU Sugar market is turning The EU market is showing signs of softening. Recent auctions have seen a precipitous decline in tariff auctions from well over EUR300/T to EUR141/T. The latter implies a landed white price of a little over EUR600/T. Talking with industry contacts, the mood has quickly darkened. We reduce our FY14e EU sugar price assumption by EUR100/T.

Regime change: devil is in the detail The market is rightly anticipating that the existing regime will substantively be rolled forward to 2020. However, the devil is always in the detail. We would not be at all surprised to see measures inacted to further ease the market. We outline some of the more likely options.

Time for the shares to catch breath: we move to Underperform We don’t see material downside to FY13e/FY14e consensus earnings (courtesy of materially lifting our Primark estimates). We do however believe that investor mindsets will now shift from considering the magnitude of the positives at Primark to the extent of the EU sugar negatives. Coupled with the stock trading at a meaningful premium to its SOTP valuation (utilising Inditex as a retail comp.) we believe some consolidation is now warranted; our target price moves from GBP14.50 to GBP18.70 (we belatedly move to a SOTP based methodology) and our recommendation moves from Neutral to Underperform.

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BEIERSDORF AG (+) Target price: EUR70 | 4% Upside Food & HPC - Germany | BEI GY - BEIG.DE

Price at 05 March 2013 | EUR67.2 Postview

Q412 results and 15 Questions for Management

Rating Target price EPS 13 EPS 14e

(3%)

Rating Outperform Food & HPC Underperform Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn) 15.3 / 6.0 EV (EURbn) 12.9

Financials 12/12p 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 2.06 2.43 2.88 3.30 EPS, IBES (EUR) 2.11 2.40 2.69 2.96 Net dividend (EUR) 0.70 0.70 0.84 0.99 Sales (EURm) 6,040 6,389 6,814 7,254 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 735 849 973 1,091 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 468 551 654 748 ROCE (%) 28.1 32.8 38.4 43.4 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) - - - -

Valuation metrics* 12/12p 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e



Absolute 1 3 10 41 Rel. MSCI Europe (1) (1) 3 16 Rel. Food & HPC 0 2 5 27

Eamonn Ferry (+44) 207 039 9404 [email protected]

Jeff Stent James Bushnell James Wyatt

Summary In summary, a sizeable miss on margin, EBIT and EPS in Q412, although this was largely caused by a one-off provision wrt. 'old' Chinese hair care products that will be returned by the trade as the new range is launched.

News We detail the main newsworthy items that may not have been gleaned from a quick read of the results release. We would highlight in particular CEO Heidenreich’s EUR30m exposure to changes in Sales and EBIT in the Consumer division in the years ahead.

Estimates / Target price We tweak down our FY13 EPS (3%) to take account of a slightly lower margin assumption and a slightly higher tax rate. We leave our EPS estimates for all other years unchanged. Our target price of EUR70 also remains unchanged.

Investment Thesis We get the sense here that this is a true turnaround. While sell-siders like us would like more margin, now, Heidenreich does not work on the sell-side. For this turnaround to be sustainable, it needs to be top-line driven. The 16% margin will follow. Beiersdorf has all the makings of being the next Henkel or Estee Lauder: a poor track record but with a new management team that finally realises the clear potential. We see a material rebound in organic sales growth and material expansion in margins in the quarters/years ahead. Near-term, the shares could pause here.

15 Questions for Management Why, given that Consumer LFL sales expanded close to +7% in two quarters of 2012 and close to +9% in another, did you not handily beat consensus margin expectations? The GM in your Consumer division is in the high-60s after all: where is the leverage?






MORRISON (-) Target price: 230p | 13% Downside Food Retail - United Kingdom | MRW LN - MRW.L

Price at 05 March 2013 | 266p News

Unrealistic to emerge unscathed from a perfect storm

Rating Underperform Food Retail Neutral Mkt cap (GBPbn / EURbn) 5.9 / 6.9 Free float (GBPbn / EURbn) 5.9 / 6.9 EV (GBPbn / EURbn) 8.4 / 9.8

Financials 01/13e 01/14e 01/15e 01/16e

EPS, Adjusted (p) 26.0 24.4 25.2 27.0 EPS, IBES (p) 26.5 26.4 27.5 27.4 Net dividend (p) 11.8 13.0 13.3 14.2 Sales (GBPm) 17,834 18,009 18,596 19,219 EBITA, Adj. (GBPm) 966 918 941 987 Net profit, Adj.(GBPm) 649 584 595 636 ROCE (%) 8.8 8.0 8.0 8.2 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7

Valuation metrics* 01/13e 01/14e 01/15e 01/16e

P/E (x) 10.7 10.9 10.5 9.9 Net yield (%) 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.3 FCF yield (%) 0.5 2.5 5.2 5.8 EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.9 EV/EBITA (x) 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.5 EV/CE (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 * Yearly average prices for FY to end-01/12, 01/13


Absolute (1) 4 (1) (6) Rel. MSCI Europe 2 2 (13) (18) Rel. Food retail 0 2 (11) (18)

John Kershaw +44 203 430 8422 [email protected]

Andrew Gwynn +44 203 430 8438 [email protected]

So much to do and say but investors need a firm floor to profits and broad reassurance With trading lagging the competition by a distance, sales haemorrhaging to the discounters, the store of the future seemingly underwhelming and with convenience and on-line offerings to build, Morrison has a lot on its plate. There is plenty of explaining to do but management must avoid drowning in the detail at the FY results on 14 March. Investors need a firm base to forecasts and reassurance that management has a coherent plan. We fear Morrison will be insufficiently bold on the former and will struggle to communicate the latter. The commitment to grow the DPS 10% again in 2013/14E offers some support in a c5% yield but, for us, the shares remain best avoided.

What cost to repel the discounters, recoup lost share and build convenience and on-line? Investors will want to understand how Morrison sets about stabilising trading and providing solutions to the discounters’ threat whilst building a multi-channel offering and generating greater customer loyalty (insight). However, the market will want credible answers to why EBITDAR margins as high as Tesco’s should be secure given Morrison’s underperformance in a sector suffering excess capacity addition and given perhaps cGBP20-25m extra start-up costs to incur (on-line and convenience) in 2013/14. GBP300m of cost savings will help, but we think consensus for c2.5% EBIT (post start-up cost) decline in FY14 looks optimistic – we are c5% below. On the positive, we think these pressures will result in a further cutting in Morrison’s new space ambitions.

How to position the brand? We think management now appreciates the brand risks looking anachronistic without a coherent on-line grocery offering and expect to hear more on a national solution and of how it will knit into a multi-format estate. Perhaps more pressing is how management looks to position the brand that is in danger of going too up-market with its ‘store of the future’ conversions (30% of selling area). Adverts fronted by Ant & Dec may temporally attract mass-appeal but we look for more on how Morrison wins back its differentiation with Market Street and fresh food provenance, whilst re-emphasising its value credentials to keep the discounters at bay. It is possible but will take time and likely will need retrospective tweaks to the ‘future-store’ model and margin investment.







ELEKTA (+) Target price: SEK104 | 10% Upside Healthcare Providers & Services - Sweden | EKTAB SS -

EKTAb.ST

Price at 05 March 2013 | SEK94.9 Postview

Ambitious but believable guidance - Fundamentals still valid

Rating Target price EPS 12 EPS 13

(5%) (8%) (5%)

Rating Outperform Healthcare Providers & Services Neutral Mkt cap (SEKbn / EURbn) 36.0 / 4.3 Free float (SEKbn / EURbn) 34.5 / 4.1 EV (SEKbn / EURbn) 38.1 / 4.6

Financials 04/12 04/13e 04/14e 04/15e

EPS, Adjusted (SEK) 3.03 3.42 4.44 5.35 EPS, IBES (SEK) 3.20 3.83 4.60 5.41 Net dividend (SEK) 0.28 1.26 1.60 1.92 Sales (SEKm) 9,048 10,133 11,490 12,985 EBITA, Adj. (SEKm) 1,726 1,973 2,507 2,975 Net profit, Adj.(SEKm) 1,135 1,324 1,735 2,102 ROCE (%) 19.8 18.5 22.2 25.2 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1




Absolute (3) (5) (6) 15 Rel. MSCI SMID (4) (6) (7) 2 Rel. Healthcare Providers (4) (6) (11) 5

Romain Zana (+33) 1 44 95 58 79 [email protected]

John Aldersley (Marketing analyst) Julien Dormois

Strong miss on Q3 figures – Sales and EBIT respectively 11% and 36% below expectations Q3 cc. order growth of +6% was not so bad (10–8% for Cons.–Exane) and implied further market share gain over Varian. But sales were weak primarily due to postponed business in Middle East, wait-and-see attitude of US clients (waiting for budget agreement / reimbursement rates). In all, organic sales growth was -2% in Q3 but +9% over 9M12/13 (+1% in Q1; +27% in Q2). Recurring EBIT was down 36% y/y (of which 8% from FX) mainly reflecting a lack of volume. Net income was impacted by a one-off of EUR15m in associated company (government project in Ghana).

Q4 guidance highly ambitious…but believable Despite the weak Q3, FY guidance was only revised by 3%, mainly to reflect the recent currency volatility and cautious demand in the US. The >15% growth in l.c. on both sales and recurring EBIT (with 3% negative impact from FX) implies a strong Q4 of 18% organic growth and >35% EBIT growth. With the backlog strong, the company is confident it can reach this target. It is hard to appreciate the visibility that company has on Q4; however, it is worth noting that its track record in guiding for Q4 (after 9M) has been spotless over the past ten years (see Figure 4). Several arguments plead for a catch-up: 1) business seasonality; 2) catch-up of brachytherapy sales (bundled to LINACs); 3) roll-out of the new Versa HD LINAC (more efficient / 30% less power consumption, etc.). Cash conversion target of >70% accordingly reiterated (44% over 9M12/13).

Investment case remains valid as fundamentals are solid and Elekta is gaining market share It would be unfair to say that we are not a bit nervous about the Q4 target. However, we are convinced by the steady fundamentals of the radiotherapy market (6–10% growth duopoly market; high medical need and increasing penetration) and Elekta’s positioning (>30% of sales from EMs; m.s. gain over leader Varian; great innovation cycle; potential Brazilian incremental opportunity).

Outperform reiterated – Optimistic EPS have been cut by 8–5% for 04/13e and 04/14e To match guidance, consensus will need to cut its estimates by roughly 3–4%. The stock has fallen 7% over the past two weeks on cautious previews.






WOOD GROUP (+) Target price: 1,080p | 42% Upside Oil & Gas - United Kingdom | WG/ LN - WG.L

Price at 04 March 2013 | 758p Postview

Good results and solid 2013 guidance

Rating Outperform Oil & Gas Neutral Mkt cap (USDbn / GBPbn) 4.1 / 2.7 Free float (USDbn / GBPbn) 4.0 / 2.6 EV (USDbn / GBPbn) 4.3 / 2.8

Financials 12/12p 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (p) 50.4 65.0 76.7 82.2 EPS, Adjusted (USD) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 EPS, IBES (p) 53.4 65.9 75.0 81.0 Net dividend (p) 10.7 12.4 13.6 15.0 Sales (USDm) 6,821 7,594 8,336 8,752 EBITA, Adj. (USDm) 461 549 636 676 Net profit, Adj.(USDm) 298 366 433 463 ROCE (%) 12.8 14.6 16.2 16.8 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 0.3 0.0 - -




Absolute (5) (7) (2) 1 Rel. MSCI Europe (3) (6) (6) 7 Rel. Oil & Gas (4) (9) (12) (12)

Alexandre Marie (+44) 207 039 9427 [email protected]

Andrew Crispin (Marketing analyst) Alejandro Demichelis Alex Topouzoglou

FY12 EBITA in line with consensus FY12 EBITA was USD461m, in line with the consensus (USD461m) and 2% above our forecast (USD453m). The company announced a final dividend of GBp11.3/share, bringing the total for the year to 17p, roughly in line with consensus at 17.4p.

2013 EBITA to grow 15%, underpinned by solid outlook in all divisions For 2013, the company projects “around 15%” y/y growth in EBITA, underpinned by revenue growth and margin expansion in Engineering (43% of 2013e EBITA), driving a 15% EBITA increase for the division. The company expects a “strong performance” at PSN (43% of EBITA) powered in particular by a “significant improvement” in Oman, where the company is working through a loss-making contract. Finally, for GTS (14% of EBITA) management anticipates an improvement in the Maintenance activity, mainly driven by self-help as the market remains soft; the contribution from Power Solutions is anticipated to decline.

We expect no change in the consensus Although consensus is slightly more optimistic than the guidance (+17% growth in EBITA vs. guidance’s +15%), management appeared confident during the presentation and comfortable with consensus expectations. We expect no major changes to consensus at this stage. We forecast 19% EBITA growth in 2013e.

Outperform rating maintained We continue to like Wood Group for its top-line growth and margin potential. We think the end-market exposure to subsea (JPKenny) and topsides (Mustang) should continue to support growth and pricing power in Engineering, while geographic expansion and cross-business synergies add to the group’s growth potential.






ANSALDO STS (+) Target price: EUR9 | 26% Upside Capital Goods - Italy | STS IM - STS.MI


2013 guidance below our estimate, but no big concerns


(7%) (5%)

Rating Outperform Capital Goods Outperform Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn) 1.1 / 0.7 EV (EURbn) 0.8

Financials 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 0.47 0.54 0.63 0.68 EPS, IBES (EUR) 0.49 0.54 0.59 0.63 Net dividend (EUR) 0.18 0.19 0.22 0.24 Sales (EURm) 1,248 1,332 1,466 1,557 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 117.1 128.4 148.5 161.9 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 75.7 85.8 100.1 109.2 ROCE (%) - - - - Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) - - - -


P/E (x) 13.0 13.3 11.4 10.5 Net yield (%) 2.9 2.6 3.1 3.3 FCF yield (%) 4.3 4.8 7.8 9.9 EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.9 4.7 4.0 EV/EBITA (x) 6.2 6.5 5.2 4.4 EV/CE (x) (15.0) (46.0) (88.1) (52.1) * Yearly average price for FY ended 12/12


Absolute (1) (4) 6 14 Rel. MSCI SMID (5) (10) (4) (6) Rel. Capital Goods (4) (9) (3) (2)

Giuseppe Marsella (+39) 02 89 63 17 20 [email protected]

Michele Baldelli

2013 guidance below our estimates Final 2012 results were in line with preliminary figures unveiled few weeks ago. By contrast, the 2013 guidance (revenues at EUR1.25bn–1.35bn, EBIT margin at 9.5%, new orders at EUR1.5bn–1.7bn and net cash at EUR300m–320m) is below our projections and slightly below consensus.

Not concerned by conservative guidance on new orders The conservative guidance on new orders is not a point of concern for us. We highlight that Ansaldo posted an order intake close to EUR2bn in 2010 and 2011. The initial guidance in both years was lower and the group under-promised and over-delivered. In particular, we understand that the guidance assumes a very low likelihood of winning the big contract for the Riyadh metro system (likely to be awarded in June 2013). The order intake could be higher than the EUR1bn we originally expected and three not four consortia will compete for the three separate lots (each for more than EUR1bn). The lower guidance on EBIT margin is of more concern, but we believe it translates 1) lower operational leverage (lower revenue guidance than expected); 2) the revenue mix (the Q4 12 order intake was more skewed to the less profitable signalling business) and 3) effects related to restructuring charges, which were below our estimates (EUR6m, instead of EUR8m in 2012). We also understand that price competition in signalling remains high.

Estimates slightly revised down We have revised our estimates down slightly in line with the guidance (apart from new orders left unchanged at EUR2bn). However, we believe that margin expansion is just postponed, and our medium-term estimates are unchanged.

Outperform reiterated with TP of EUR9.0 Our DCF valuation is more or less unchanged and we reiterate our Outperform rating with a TP of EUR9.0. Weakness after the disappointing guidance could open a good entry point. The group will provide an update of its business plan on 26 March.






BANCO POPOLARE (+) Target price: EUR1.90 | 55% Upside Banks - Italy | BP IM - BAPO.MI

Price at 04 March 2013 | EUR1.22 News

Investment case driven by (adequate) solvency


NM

Rating Outperform Banks Outperform Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn) 2.2 / 2.1

Financials 12/12p 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) (0.25) 0.13 0.21 0.24 EPS, Reported (EUR) (0.31) 0.13 0.21 0.24 EPS, IBES (EUR) 0.04 0.11 0.17 0.24 BVPS (EUR) 4.97 5.13 5.32 5.51 Tangible BVPS (EUR) 3.63 3.79 3.98 4.17 DVPS (EUR) 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.06 Net att. profit rep. (EURm) (549.8) 234.9 370.5 430.5 Net att. profit adj. (EURm) (437) 235 371 431 Tangible BV (EUR) 6,411 6,686 7,026 7,358 ROTE adj. (%) (6.9) 3.6 5.4 6.0 Equity Tier 1 Ratio (%) 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.4


P/E (x) - 9.2 5.8 5.0 P/BVPS (x) 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.22 P/Tangible BVPS (x) 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.29 - High (x) 0.46 0.41 - - - Low (x) 0.22 0.32 - - Net yield (%) 0.0 3.3 4.1 4.9 Payout (%) - 30.0 23.8 24.6 * Yearly average price for FY ended 12/12


Absolute (14) (15) 5 (23) Rel. MSCI Europe (12) (15) (2) (33) Rel. Banks (14) (16) 0 (31)

Andrea Vercellone (+44) 203 430 8424 [email protected]

Colin Hector (Marketing analyst) Alastair Macintosh (Marketing analyst) Daniel Davies Andreas Hakansson Santiago López Díaz Abhishek Parthasarathy Tom Rayner Guillaume Tiberghien Jag Yogarajah

Q4 12 profit warning due to one-offs– 2013-15 EPS estimates unchanged BP has pre-announced a cEUR500m loss for Q4 12 (excluding possible non-cash adjustments such as the potential write-down of goodwill on AGOS and additional losses due to negative fair value of own debt moves). The full P&L has not been provided (the FY results are due on Friday 15 March). In our view, the difference with our estimate of a EUR41m loss relates entirely to items that we deem non-recurring: in Q4 BP will consolidate a EUR100m loss on its 39% stake in AGOS (we estimated a EUR50m loss); also it will post EUR650m for LLPs, partly as a consequence of the Bank of Italy’s audit on the adequacy of provisions (our estimate of EUR253m did not include any negative adjustments related to the BoI’s audit, as is the case for all other Italian banks). We estimate the coverage of impaired loans to have increased by c4pp to c30%.

Limited impact on CT1 – No uncertainty about BP’s share count The impact of the Q4 loss on BP’s solvency is limited. This is because the shortfall of expected losses relative to the stock of accounting provisions is already deducted from core tier 1 capital under B2.5 (without any tax offset)—and the deduction will increase to 100% under Basel 3. Indeed BP’s EBA CT1 ratio will remain above 9%, implying a B2.5 CT1 ratio above 9.6% (we estimate 9.8%). Although we are conscious that BP’s solvency is not the best in class (B3 FL CT1 ratio of 8.3% in 2013e) as, on our estimate, the bank’s CT1 ratio under prevailing regulations will remain well above 9% in any given year, we still rule out conversion of the outstanding EUR1bn soft convertible. We note also that conversion of the bond at maturity would dilute our 2014e adj. EPS estimates by only c10%, increasing the bank’s CT1 ratio by c60bp (c30% dilution for a 170bp increase in CT1 in the event of early conversion).

We reiterate our outperform rating In our view, the current valuation of c0.3x TBV 13e (for a 2015 ROTE of 6%) and 5.8x P/E 14e discounts an increase in BP’s share count, which we think is not going to materialise. We reiterate our Outperform rating and our EUR1.90 price target.






BREMBO (+) Target price: EUR13.2 | 18% Upside Automotive - Italy | BRE IM - BRBI.MI


Growth story continues unabated


27% (8%)

Rating Outperform Automotive Neutral Mkt cap/Free float (EURm) 732 / 300 EV (EURm) 1,070

Financials 12/11 12/12 12/13e 12/14e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 0.58 0.89 0.94 1.26 EPS, IBES (EUR) 0.66 0.84 0.98 1.15 Net dividend (EUR) 0.30 0.40 0.41 0.45 Sales (EURm) 1,255 1,389 1,500 1,649 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 73.0 89.2 99.6 129.2 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 37.6 57.8 61.5 82.5 ROCE (%) 8.9 13.2 11.2 14.4 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.3

Valuation metrics* 12/11 12/12 12/13e 12/14e

P/E (x) 14.0 9.4 11.9 8.9 Net yield (%) 3.7 4.8 3.6 4.1 FCF yield (%) (6.9) 6.4 4.4 10.5 EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 5.2 5.7 4.5 EV/EBITA (x) 12.1 10.1 10.7 7.9 EV/CE (x) 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 * Yearly average prices for FY to end-12/11, 12/12


Absolute 1 6 14 18 Rel. MSCI SMID 2 5 5 9 Rel. Automotive 0 3 6 4

Michele Baldelli (+39) 02 89 63 17 26 [email protected]

Giuseppe Marsella

FY12 results slightly better than expected – NWC management the bright spot Top-line growth (+10.7% for FY12 vs. +9.4%e) and margins were slightly ahead of our expectations (EBITDA margin at 12.4% vs. 12.3% expected). Tax rate was 6% instead of the normalized level (25%) due to one offs (use of Italian and Polish tax assets). Net debt was better than expected at EUR320.7m (vs. EUR349m expected) thanks to a very tight control of the net working capital. Proposed dividend is EUR40cents/share, with a yield of 4%.

2013 guidance does not surprise consensus, but we find it to be conservative Brembo expects top line growth of 7%/9% in 2013 (consensus +6%, Exane +8%) and an EBITDA margin similar to the one recorded in 2012 (12.4%). We find the margin guidance to be a bit conservative and we expect 12.7% EBITDA margin in 2013 (consensus is at 12.9%).

EPS revised down by 8% in 2013e and up by +1% in 2014e We revised down our 2013e EPS estimates due to the higher D&A expected and the slightly lower EBITDA margin (12.7% vs. 13.1% previously) due to the ongoing ramp-up costs of the Czech and Chinese plants, which are taking longer to break even than previously expected. We have slightly increased our EPS for 2014 on the back of a higher margin assumption as the company is fairly confident of restoring a 14% EBITDA margin by 2014 with the current production footprint.

Outperform reiterated – TP raised from EUR10.4 to EUR13.2 – a structural growth story Brembo is one of the few structural growth stories in the European auto suppliers industry due to its good positioning (i.e. premium) and competitive product offering (i.e. lightweight callipers). We increase our TP to EUR13.2 (from EUR10.4) as we roll our valuation over to 2014 figures (a year when all the plants are expected to reach full profitability). We apply the average between a multiple based methodology (historical avg. EV/EBIT and EV/CE ratios) and a DCF (WACC at 11%). We believe that the growth story of Brembo should also continue beyond 2014 (+8.5% sales CAGR in 2015-16) and for this reason we think that applying historical average multiples is still reasonable.






ELIA (=) Target price: EUR37 | 10% Upside Utilities - Belgium | ELI BB - ELI.BR


German gains, Belgian pains


9% 2% (2%)

Rating Neutral Utilities Outperform Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn) 2.0 / 0.9 EV (EURbn) 5.0

Financials 12/11 12/12 12/13e 12/14e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 2.29 2.58 2.48 2.45 EPS, IBES (EUR) - 2.57 2.38 2.47 Net dividend (EUR) 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 Sales (EURm) 1,278 1,310 1,382 1,400 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 308.0 305.6 347.8 345.1 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 137.5 155.0 149.0 147.3 ROCE (%) 4.4 3.9 4.4 4.2 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 5.7 6.4 5.8 6.1


P/E (x) 12.8 12.2 13.5 13.7 Net yield (%) 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.4 FCF yield (%) 5.6 (13.8) 2.2 (5.8) EV/Sales (x) 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 10.5 9.6 10.0 EV/EBITA (x) 14.2 15.6 14.2 15.0 EV/CE (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 * Yearly average prices for FY to end-12/11, 12/12


Absolute (1) (2) 3 10 Rel. MSCI SMID (4) (5) 4 11 Rel. Utilities (3) (7) (5) (6)

Olivier Van Doosselaere (+44) 207 039 9508 [email protected]

Benjamin Leyre Philip Gottschalk Manuel Palomo Iain Turner

FY12 results supported by operations in Germany Elia reported a 13% y/y increase in net profit, which stood a sound 16% above expectations. Net profit at the Belgian operations declined by 16% y/y, as expected and mainly driven by lower Belgian bond yields (which are the basis for the setting of regulated allowed return on equity). This was more than offset by the net profit at the German subsidiary 50Hertz, which doubled y/y and stood 38% above our forecast. The bulk of this (30%) is non-recurring, however, and linked to one-off compensations for past under-recoveries obtained through changes in the regulation in 2012.

Capex to rise – new equity may be needed Elia expects to invest c.EUR200m in its Belgian operations in FY13 (of which 41% maintenance), up from EUR150m in FY12, and we could see significant further capex hikes in the coming years as the five main expansion projects alone will consume a total of EUR1.5bn–EUR2bn. Given the high leverage on the balance sheet on the Belgian side (58% FY12 gearing), we do not exclude the need for new equity. For 50Hertz, capex will sharply rise to EUR415m in FY13 (from EUR253m in FY12), and is likely to remain at this peak level for a number of years. But it should be financeable given the low leverage on the subsidiary’s balance sheet today (< 25% adj. gearing).

Slight revision of our estimates – limited dividend upside in the near term Elia maintained a flat dividend in FY12 of EUR1.47 despite the rise in net profit, which is in our view linked to the significant capex ramp-up. Given that we expect earnings to decline in FY13e (lower Belgian bond yields) and FY14e (no more compensation for past under-recoveries in Germany), we anticipate a flat dividend for the next two years.

Neutral rating maintained – target price rolled forward We roll forward our valuation to end-2013 (from end-2012 previously), which lifts our valuation by 9% to EUR37/s, in line with equity RAB, which reflects a fair remuneration obtained overall in Belgium and Germany. At 9.6x EV/EBITDA 13e, Elia trades significantly above the infrastructure utilities peer average (9.0x), which is in our view justified by the more defensive Belgian regulation.






PACE (=) Target price: GBP2.45 | 8% Upside IT Hardware - United Kingdom | PIC LN - PIC.L

Price at 04 March 2013 | GBP2.28 Postview

Transforming Core Economics - Check


7% 5% 7%

Rating Neutral IT Hardware Underperform Mkt cap (USDbn / GBPm) 1.0 / 683 Free float (USDbn / GBPm) 1.0 / 683 EV (USDbn / GBPm) 1.1 / 731.1

Financials 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (GBP) 0.21 0.30 0.35 0.35 EPS, Adjusted (USD) 0.33 0.45 0.52 0.52 EPS, IBES (GBP) 0.20 0.26 0.28 0.22 Net dividend (GBP) 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 Sales (USDm) 2,403 2,487 2,538 2,542 EBITA, Adj. (USDm) 155.0 199.2 224.1 224.7 Net profit, Adj.(USDm) 103.1 142.8 164.7 165.1 ROCE (%) 16.0 23.9 28.6 30.9 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 1.4 0.3 - -




Absolute (2) 1 24 165 Rel. MSCI SMID (1) 0 (1) 121 Rel. IT Hardware (2) (2) 9 125

Alexandre Faure (+44) 207 039 9443 [email protected]

Alexander Peterc (+44) 207 039 9413 [email protected]

Nav Sheera (Marketing analyst) Jerome Ramel

Cash generation is the main positive surprise – Pace targets net cash position by December Unsurprisingly following its positive pre-announcement on January 10, Pace this morning released an uneventful set of results for Fiscal 12. The major surprise was very strong cash generation with FCF reaching USD183m (Vs USD175m+ pre-announced) thanks to good working cap management and tight capex control. However, the main unknown was still 2013 guidance: Pace expects flat sales and c.7.5% adj. EBITA margin, both in line with consensus. Importantly, Pace sees strong FCF generation continuing this year, leading to a net cash position by year-end.

Europe will continue to weigh on 2013’s performance Although Pace will lose its exclusivity on high-end boxes at Comcast and DirecTV over the course of the year, we feel confident it will maintain its lead on the next generation of such platforms whilst expanding its high-end knowhow to US Tier-2 CATV providers in H2, in partnership with Tivo. We thus see further growth this year in North America set-top boxes from a high base. We also expect LatAm to confirm the rebound shown in H2 12 while Rest of World should recover from a low base. However, Europe will remain an area of weakness with further decline over the next twelve months until Pace’s recent wins (Get, Telenet) translate into shipments and revenues. We believe a number of important contracts throughout Europe are up for renewal this year (VMED, Ono, UPC) which could lead to major wins for Pace, further strengthening revenue potential in 2014.

We tweak our estimates to reflect lower capitalised R&D and lower tax rateWe have slightly raised our top line estimates on US strength, which fully offsets a somewhat higher OPEX base. Pace’s management is now very focused on limiting the number of projects under development and making sure of their future benefits, which prompts us to slightly reduce the net development costs we expense through the P&L. As a reminder, we fully expense (capitalised) development costs. Finally, we understand some tax optimisation effort is underway, hence our lower tax rate assumption (from 30% to 26-27%). These all bring our 2013/14 Exane BNPP-adjusted EPS up 5%/7% to 45p/52p. Our DCF-based TP edges up 7% to 245p. Neutral.







ROCKWOOL INTL B (+) Target price: DKK810 | 20% Upside Building Materials - Denmark | ROCKB DC - ROCKb.CO

Price at 04 March 2013 | DKK677.0 Postview

2012 FY postview plus 15 questions for management


(3%) (2%)

Rating Outperform Building Materials Outperform Mkt cap (DKKbn / EURbn) 14.6 / 2.0 Free float (DKKbn / EURbn) 8.6 / 1.2 EV (DKKbn / EURbn) 14.5 / 1.9

Financials 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e

EPS, Adjusted (DKK) 38.3 43.7 49.6 57.9 EPS, IBES (DKK) 35.7 41.3 46.9 59.2 Net dividend (DKK) 10.2 13.1 14.9 17.4 Sales (DKKm) 14,664 15,106 15,786 16,844 EBITA, Adj. (DKKm) 1,221 1,347 1,502 1,753 Net profit, Adj.(DKKm) 828.4 945.3 1,072 1,253 ROCE (%) 8.2 8.5 8.9 10.1 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -




Absolute (5) 3 11 22 Rel. MSCI SMID (6) (3) 0 12 Rel. Building Mat. (5) 0 4 7

Yassine Touahri (+44) 207 039 9523 [email protected]

Paul Roger (+44) 203 430 8415 [email protected]

Rohit Bhatia

2012 results in line with expectations 2012 EBIT was up 26% to DKK1,141m – in line with our forecasts and consensus. Results at the holding level were better than we expected, reflecting a decision by Rockwool to increase the royalties charged to operating divisions. Results in the group’s Insulation and System division were consequently lower than our expectations, however. Excluding the reallocated central charges divisional results were in line and management flagged that underlying margins in Insulation continued to improve sequentially in Q4, thanks to solid pricing and lower energy costs.

Characteristically cautious guidance. The outlook for gross margins remains encouraging Rockwool’s FY13 net profit guidance of DKK700m was >20% below consensus and our forecasts. However, we note that management has a history of very cautious guidance. The original target net income for FY12 was >DKK600m, whereas they delivered DKK772m, for example, and over the past three years the beat vs original guidance has averaged c30%. Underlying trends suggest to us that management may be too prudent once again on this year. Margins are already back to 2008 levels and the group continues to expect energy cost deflation in 2013, resulting in a slightly positive gross margin improvement. The volume outlook in Europe echoes prudent comments by peers, but is not materially different to our Central Scenario.

We maintain our Outperform rating on Rockwool We have slightly cut our forecasts due to weak trends in the UK (lack of impact of the green deal) and cautious comments on Asia (focus on market share rather than margins in China ahead of the opening of a new plant). This drives the modest reduction in our TP from from DKK815 to DKK810. We like Rockwool's balance sheet (nearly debt free) and exposure to tightening building energy regulation (structural growth driver). Lower coking coal prices should continue to support solid earnings, as we note that our new 2013 EPS forecasts are 6% above consensus. Rockwool is trading on 5.6x 2014e EV/EBITDA versus an average of 7x over the 2005-2010 period. We reiterate Outperform. Key risks are a reversal in coking coal prices, a resurgent Eurozone crisis, price pressure in China or a slowdown in Russia.







STERIA (+) Recommended Mid Cap Target price: EUR16 | 32% Upside IT Services - France | RIA FP - TERI.PA

Price at 05 March 2013 | EUR12.1 News

Increasing speculative appeal


(6%) (6%)

Rating Outperform IT Services Neutral Mkt cap/Free float (EURm) 369 / 215 EV (EURm) 707

Financials 12/11 12/12 12/13e 12/14e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 2.61 2.21 2.06 2.43 EPS, IBES (EUR) - 2.36 2.14 2.54 Net dividend (EUR) 0.35 0.20 0.20 0.25 Sales (EURm) 1,748 1,827 1,798 1,845 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 127.3 114.3 121.3 135.1 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 86.3 74.8 62.9 74.0 ROCE (%) 10.2 10.1 9.1 10.0 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.5


P/E (x) 6.8 5.9 5.9 5.0 Net yield (%) 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 FCF yield (%) 4.0 (1.7) 7.1 11.6 EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 5.8 4.6 4.0 EV/EBITA (x) 7.5 7.7 5.8 5.0 EV/CE (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 * Yearly average prices for FY to end-12/11, 12/12


Absolute (10) (10) (5) (23) Rel. MSCI SMID (14) (14) (10) (38) Rel. IT Services (13) (13) (13) (34)

Brice Prunas (+44) 207 039 9539 [email protected]

Josep Bori

A disconnect between “Industrial” value and stock market value Comparing Steria with peers (Tieto, Sopra), one might be surprised by the disconnect between the value of Steria’s offerings (like Public Sector and Security) and its industrial positioning on the one side and its current stock market value on the other. We believe that this disconnect may well give rise to a more speculative scenario in an 18-month timeframe, revealing that Steria may well hold more value for an industrial trade buyer than for a stock market investor.

Becoming more speculative – Offer from a trade buyer not ruled out in the medium term Following the H1 2012 profit warning and challenged FY 12 earnings release, Steria’s share price has fallen back to its low-end valuation (P/E 13e below 6). For a trade buyer, Steria offers an interesting value proposal at an unmatched low price. Several trade buyers could contemplate buying Steria: 1) Capgemini for example in Europe; 2) in Asia, Indian pure play vendors (Infosys, TCS, Cognizant, etc.) have recently shown a growing interest in Europe as has Japanese company NTT Data. Nor should an offer from a private equity or turnaround fund be totally ruled out. Steria shareholders (even the 19% belonging to employees) will be obliged to consider any offer seriously given possible reservations about the organic route chosen by Steria in such a challenging context.

2013-2015 FCF will be key to give a chance to the stand alone scenario After generating around EUR250m cumulated FCF between 2008 and 2010, Steria’s FCF suddenly deteriorated in 2011 (+EUR20m) and 2012 (-EUR6m), dented by investments in large contracts (like Cleveland Police), real estate optimisation and restructuring (in Continental Europe where Steria lost focus after Xansa). Steria’s best protection against an offer from a trade buyer would be to resume FCF generation. Steria targets EUR20m post dividend in 2013 and EUR40m post dividend starting 2014. However, we have doubts about whether or not this FCF improvement is going to be enough to deleverage Steria and therefore preserve its independence, showing that the standalone strategy may well no longer be the central scenario.






TF1 (+) Recommended Mid Cap Target price: EUR12.2 | 44% Upside Media - France | TFI FP - TFFP.PA

Price at 05 March 2013 | EUR8.5 Update

Tough ad trends but appeal remains


6% 4% 9%

Rating Outperform Media Outperform Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn) 1.8 / 0.9 EV (EURbn) 1.6

Financials 12/11 12/12 12/13e 12/14e

EPS, Adjusted (EUR) 0.93 0.71 0.74 0.74 EPS, IBES (EUR) - 0.64 0.68 0.65 Net dividend (EUR) 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.50 Sales (EURm) 2,620 2,621 2,541 2,663 EBITA, Adj. (EURm) 283.0 230.8 247.5 245.2 Net profit, Adj.(EURm) 198.8 149.7 157.5 156.8 ROCE (%) 11.6 9.7 10.3 10.5 Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 0.1 - - -


P/E (x) 12.3 10.6 11.3 11.4 Net yield (%) 4.8 7.3 5.9 5.9 FCF yield (%) 2.9 14.8 9.1 11.2 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 4.0 5.1 4.8 EV/EBITA (x) 8.6 5.7 6.6 6.2 EV/CE (x) 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 * Yearly average prices for FY to end-12/11, 12/12


Absolute 0 (4) 6 (1) Rel. MSCI SMID (3) (8) (1) (20) Rel. Media (3) (8) (3) (15)

Charles Bedouelle (+44) 207 039 9482 [email protected]

Adrien de Saint Hilaire (+44) 207 039 9499 [email protected]

Sami Kassab William Packer

We present the feedback from our roadshow with TF1’s CFO last week, and reiterate our positive stance on the shares despite the tougher ad trends.

Ad trends are worse than expected, but audiences are solid TF1 confirmed Q1 for the core channel could be down more than the 10% seen in Q3 12 (no number given). We thus cut Q1 to -14%, below our initial -8–9% as current market weakness is exacerbated by some competitors slashing prices. But January-February are small months, and we have no visibility for March and comps improve Q2. We expect -8% for FY, (implying -6.5% for Q2–Q4) without pricing in the current solid audiences.

No upgrade to guidance, but cost cutting is a clear focus Some were disappointed that the cost-cutting guidance was not raised at the FY results, but this seemed too optimistic as the plan was only announced late in 2012. We note that TF1 is trying its best to accelerate cost cutting (more in 2013 than initially planned). Importantly, TF1’s CFO highlighted that, beyond the structural cost improvement plan, the group was also taking more classic cost reduction measures in light of the worse-than-expected revenues (no number given).

Looking beyond the core channel The CFO stressed that TF1 is focusing on developing new areas (digital, Eurosport, new channels) and leveraging the core channel’s content and brand in other business lines, which are now all profitable and growing. This limits cash return potential in 2013, but we are hopeful for 2014.

Reiterate Outperform, with updated EUR12.2 TP showing c.45% upside Our raised EPS forecasts (+4% for 2013e, +9% for 2014e), despite the lower ad forecasts, reflect better cost management (including in 2012). This puts us well above the consensus, which we think is overlooking 1) the benefit of regulation, 2) one-offs in the 2012 cost base and 3) the cost-cutting potential. Plus, TF1’s valuation is clearly low excluding Eurosport/Diversifications at 0.2x 13e sales, a fraction of peers’ multiples.







SEMICONDUCTOR

Priced at 05 March 2013 News

A relatively strong start to the year

Jerome Ramel (+44) 207 039 9484 [email protected]

Nav Sheera (Marketing analyst) Alexander Peterc Alexandre Faure

January sales were stronger than we forecasted Worldwide semiconductor sales in January were USD22.83bn (EBNNP USD21.89bn), down 10% m/m (the third softest m/m decline in the last 15 years) and up 6.2% y/y. Three-month average sales were USD24.05bn, down 2.8% m/m and up 3.8% y/y.

Volumes continue to grow y/y Volumes (three month average) were down 0.6% m/m and up 9.7% y/y, vs +8.7% in December, giving further evidence of a gradual recovery in unit numbers.

ASP still under pressure ex memory ASP were USD0.438, down 2.3% m/m and down 5.3% y/y. Excluding memories, ASP were down 7.9% y/y vs 5.5% in December, reflecting the price renegotiation that usually takes place in January and also a relatively low capacity utilization rate (probably around 80% for the industry).

Too early to call a trend but we see some upside on our 2013 scenario With the relatively strong start to the year, we see some upside to our scenario of 3–4% semiconductor sales growth worldwide in 2013. We stick to our scenario that Q1 13 will be the trough and will be followed by a gradual recovery during the rest of the year. We actually see growth until the end of 2014 (except for the usual seasonal boost in Q1 14).

Qualcomm, ARM, STM and Infineon are our favourites in Semis, KLA and ASMi in Equipment We continue to see favourable momentum in Wireless and still favour Qualcomm and ARM. We play STM for the STE exit and for a potential rerating. Infineon should benefit from a recovery at the Industrial division later this year and we stick to our view that the consensus underestimates the margin leverage. KLA and ASMi remain our preferred Equipment names.

Download document (4 pages) Link to Exane BNP Paribas website





AGENDA (2/2)

Company Price*

TP • Upside Type Analyst / Phone

Wednesday 06 March 2013 TBC Admiral Group (-) GBP1,267 GBP891 • (29.7%) Conf. Call

FYPreliminary Results A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460

Agfa-Gevaert EUR1.50 FYResults Amplifon (+) EUR4.23 EUR4.70 • 11.2% FY 2012 Results R.Zana (+33) 1 44 95 58 79 Bourbon (-) EUR20.8 EUR20 • (3.9%) FYResults A.Marie (+44) 207 039 9427 Preview CTC Media USD10.0 FYResults First Quantum Minerals

Ltd (=) GBP11.9 GBP14.5 • 22.1% Q4 & FY 2012 Results J.Devevey (+33) 1 42 99 50 51 Preview

GEOX (-) EUR2.46 EUR1.70 • (30.9%) FYResults Conf. Call

G.Marsella (+39) 02 89 63 17 20

Henkel Pref (-) EUR68.7 EUR58 • (15.5%) FYResults E.Ferry (+44) 207 039 9404 Preview Inmarsat (=) GBP660.0 GBP675 • 2.3% FYResults M.Robilliard (+44) 203 430 8524 Preview Inside Secure (+) EUR3.03 EUR4.80 • 58.4% FYResults J.Ramel (+44) 207 039 9484 Kloeckner & Co (+) EUR11.4 EUR11 • (3.7%) FYResults

Conf. Call R.Kruger (+44) 203 430 8408

Legal & General (-) GBP162.7 GBP116 • (28.7%) FYPreliminary Results A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460 Manitou (=) EUR13.7 EUR16 • 16.8% FYResults L.Gelebart (+33) 1 44 95 21 56 Millicom (=) SEK488.2 SEK570 • 16.8% AGM

Investor Day M.Rey (+33) 1 44 95 69 36

Nordea (-) SEK76.4 SEK68 • (10.9%) Investor Day A.Hakansson (+46) 856 29 3510 Ophir Energy (=) GBP513.0 GBP650 • 26.7% FYPreliminary Results A.Topouzoglou (+44) 207 039 9532 Panalpina CHF98.4 FYResults SCOR (+) EUR22.2 EUR24 • 8% FYResults T.Jacquet (+33) 1 42 99 51 96 Safilo EUR8.6 FYResults Swatch Group B (+) CHF544.5 CHF706 • 29.7% FYResults L.Solca (+44) 203 430 8503 Verbund (+) EUR16.4 EUR22 • 34.4% FYResults P.Gottschalk (+33) 1 42 99 52 04 Preview BHP Billiton (=) GBP2,108 GBP2,000 • (5.1%) Ex date (0.57USD) S.Brunet (+44) 203 430 8508 Bank of Greece EUR14.9 Ex date (0.4032EUR) CRH Plc (=) EUR17.5 EUR18 • 2.9% Ex date (0.352EUR) P.Roger (+44) 203 430 8415 Novozymes DKK200.3 Dividend payment (1.606DKK) Shire Plc (+) GBP2,090 GBP2,400 • 14.8% Ex date (0.0939GBP) N.Guyon-Gellin (+33) 1 44 95 68 61 Stagecoach EUR3.39 Dividend payment (0.026GBP) TUI Travel (-) GBP314.8 GBP280 • (11.1%) Ex date (0.083GBP) P.Causse (+33) 1 42 99 84 30 Thursday 07 March 2013 Autogrill (=) EUR9.8 EUR8.2 • (16.3%) FYResults R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22 Aviva (+) GBP356.7 GBP414 • 16.1% FYPreliminary Results A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460 Preview Betfair (+) GBP6.9 GBP8.7 • 26.1% Interim Management Statement R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22 Campari Group (=) EUR6.0 EUR5.8 • (4%) FYResults F.Mosnier (+44) 207 039 9407 Preview Carrefour (+) EUR21.2 EUR22 • 3.6% FY 2012 Results J.Kershaw +44 203 430 8422 Cementir EUR2.00 FYResults Club Méd. (=) EUR14.0 EUR14 • 0% AGM M.Desmarais (+33) 1 44 95 58 60 Cobham (=) GBP233.6 GBP205 • (12.2%) FYPreliminary Results T.Sanson (+33) 1 42 99 24 04 Preview Continental (+) EUR92.2 EUR105 • 13.9% FYResults R.Freiha (+33) 1 42 99 84 62 Delhaize (=) EUR37.0 EUR35 • (5.4%) FY 2012 Results A.Gwynn +44 203 430 8438 Preview ERG (-) EUR7.1 EUR5.9 • (16.5%) FYResults A.Topouzoglou (+44) 207 039 9532 Hannover Re (+) EUR60.9 EUR63.5 • 4.2% FYResults N.Dalla Palma (+33) 1 44 95 92 67 Preview Haulotte Group (+) EUR7.1 EUR8 • 12.8% FYResults L.Gelebart (+33) 1 44 95 21 56 IMI (+) GBP1,240 GBP1,325 • 6.9% FYPreliminary Results J.Mounsey (+44) 207 039 9529 JCDecaux (-) EUR21.0 EUR17 • (19%) FYResults C.Bedouelle (+44) 207 039 9482 Lagardère (=) EUR27.6 EUR29 • 4.9% FYResults C.Bedouelle (+44) 207 039 9482 Linde (=) EUR140.3 EUR137 • (2.4%) FYResults H.Vesterinen (+44) 203 430 8439 Merck KGaA (=) EUR110.0 EUR108 • (1.8%) Q4Results V.Meunier (+33) 1 42 99 24 42

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Time CET Company Price*

TP • Upside Type Analyst / Phone

Thursday 07 March 2013 (continued) OPAP (=) EUR6.9 EUR6 • (13%) FYResults R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22 Recordati EUR7.6 FYResults SBM Offshore EUR10.8 FYResults Schroders (=) GBP2,032 GBP1,830 • (9.9%) FYResults A.Parthasarathy (+44) 207 039 9476 Stallergènes (=) EUR50.7 EUR51 • 0.6% FYResults N.Guyon-Gellin (+33) 1 44 95 68 61 Standard Life (+) GBP374.3 GBP395 • 5.5% FYPreliminary Results A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460 TDC (+) DKK45.6 DKK47 • 3.1% AGM A.Pradayrol (+44) 207 039 9489 Telecom Italia (+) EUR0.57 EUR0.80 • 40.6% FYResults M.Robilliard (+44) 203 430 8524 Preview Vicat (-) EUR45.1 EUR40.5 • (10.2%) FYResults Y.Touahri (+44) 207 039 9523 Wartsila (+) EUR35.8 EUR38 • 6.1% AGM A.Denaud (+44) 207 039 9488 adidas (+) EUR71.6 EUR83 • 15.9% FYResults A.Inderst (+44) 207 039 9453 Kone (=) EUR63.0 EUR60 • (4.8%) Dividend payment (1.225EUR) A.Denaud (+44) 207 039 9488 RTL Group OLD EUR60.9 Ex & Div. Payment (4.59EUR) Roche (=) CHF218.3 CHF213 • (2.4%) Ex date (4.7775CHF) V.Meunier (+33) 1 42 99 24 42 Teva (+) USD38.1 USD46 • 20.6% Ex & Div. Payment (0.31USD) F.Cespedes (+33) 1 42 99 84 93 *Priced at 05 March 2013

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Analyst location As per contact details, analysts are based in the following locations: London, UK for telephone numbers commencing +44; Paris, France +33; Brussels, Belgium +32; Frankfurt, Germany +49; Geneva, Switzerland +41; Madrid, Spain +34; Milan, Italy +39; New York, USA +1; Singapore +65; Stockholm, Sweden +46 Rating definitions Stock Rating (vs Sector) Outperform: The stock is expected to outperform the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon. Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon. Underperform: The stock is expected to underperform the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon. Under review: The rating of the stock has been placed under review for following important news. Any possible change will be confirmed as soon as possible. Sector Rating (vs Market) Outperform: The sector is expected to outperform the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon. Neutral: The sector is expected to perform in line with the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon. Underperform: The sector is expected to underperform the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon. Key ideas BUY: The stock is expected to deliver an absolute return in excess of 30% over the next two years. Exane BNP Paribas’ Key Ideas Buy List comprises selected stocks that meet this criterion. Distribution of Exane BNP Paribas’ equity recommendations As at 02/01/2013 Exane BNP Paribas covered 615 stocks. The stocks that, for regulatory reasons, are not accorded a rating by Exane BNP Paribas are excluded from these statistics. For regulatory reasons, our ratings of Outperform, Neutral and Underperform correspond respectively to Buy, Hold and Sell; the underlying signification is, however, different as our ratings are relative to the sector. 42% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Outperform. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 3% of stocks with this rating for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 7% of the companies accorded this rating*. 37% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Neutral. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 0% of stocks with this rating for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 4% of the companies accorded this rating*. 21% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Underperform. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 0% of stocks with this rating for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 5% of the companies accorded this rating*. * Exane is independent from BNP Paribas. Nevertheless, in order to maintain absolute transparency, we include in this category transactions carried out by BNP Paribas independently from Exane. For the purpose of clarity, we have excluded fixed income transactions carried out by BNP Paribas. Commitment of transparency on potential conflicts of interest Complete disclosures, please see www.exane.com/compliance

Exane Pursuant to Directive 2003/125/CE and NASD Rule 2711(h) Unless specified, Exane is unaware of significant conflicts of interest with companies mentioned in this report. Source: Exane See www.exane.com/disclosureequitiesuk for details

BNP Paribas Exane is independent of BNP Paribas (BNPP) and the agreement between the two companies is structured to guarantee the independence of Exane's research, published under the brand name “Exane BNP Paribas”. Nevertheless, to respect a principle of transparency, we separately identify potential conflicts of interest with BNPP regarding the company/(ies) covered by this research document. Potential conflicts of interest: None. Source: BNP Paribas

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