executive leadership scenarios & strategy patricia riley, zhan li sandi evans, elisiheve weiss...
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Executive Leadership
Scenarios & Strategy
Executive Leadership
Scenarios & Strategy
Patricia Riley, Zhan Li
Sandi Evans, Elisiheve Weiss & Jackie Selby
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USC Annenberg 2
AgendaAgenda
1. Objectives1. Objectives
2. Introductions2. Introductions
3. Leadership3. Leadership
4. Strategy 4. Strategy
5. Scenarios & Story5. Scenarios & Story
6. Next steps6. Next steps
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USC Annenberg 3
PhilosophyPhilosophy
• Some information will be new and some will be well understood
• Attempting to create a “pool of shared knowledge” for the institute and beyond
• Goal is to make the information actionable at the enterprise level as well as in your own units
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USC Annenberg 4
Objectives of This SessionObjectives of This Session• Enhancing transformational and organizational
leadership• How conversations about the future improve strategic
thinking for the enterprise• Developing your analytical skills
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USC Annenberg 5
New Approaches to LeadershipNew Approaches to Leadership
• Transformational leadership• Cascading leadership• Leadership as an organizational trait• Thought leadership and strategy at the
enterprise level
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USC Annenberg 6
Leadership is Not What You Think
• Direct vs. indirect• Networked and
shared• Institutional capacity• Enabling systems
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USC Annenberg 7
May the Best Story Win!
• Teachable POV• The “Vision Thing”
• Think outside the box• The space pen
• Competing stories• Management of
attention• Continuous partial
attention problem
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8USC Annenberg
Transformational LeadershipTransformational Leadership
“Unlike the transactional leader who indicates how current needs of followers can be fulfilled, the transformational leader simply arouses or alters the strength of needs which may have lain dormant ... It is leadership that is transformational that can bring about the big differences in groups, organizations, and societies.”
Bass
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USC Annenberg 9
Transformational LeadersTransformational Leaders
• Creative– Innovative, foresighted,
not afraid of failure
• Interactive– Powerful communicators
through images, models and metaphors
• Visionary– Communicate concise
and compelling visions
• Empowering– Gives the power to make
decisions and act on those decisions to followers
• Passionate– Love the work they do and
passionately committed to the people and organization
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ACE Management Education 10
Cascading LeadershipCascading Leadership
• Strong leaders at the top empower other leaders down the line– Depends on
continuing support – Requires excellent
communication
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USC Annenberg 11
Leadership as an Organizational Trait Leadership as an Organizational Trait
• Leadership is distributed throughout the organization– Not personality dependent
• Rooted in the culture of the organization– Employees act more like entrepreneurs than hired
hands– Embedded in systems and procedures—is
measured and rewarded• There is a common philosophy and language
of leadership that paradoxically includes tolerance for contrary views and a willingness to experiment
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USC Annenberg 1212
Global Leadership Study*
• Methodology
– Thought-leader panels
– Focus, dialogue groups
– In-depth interviews– Surveys of the
next generation of corporate leaders,
• Emerging Trends– Thinking globally– Developing
technical savvy– Developing the
organization and sharing leadership
– Appreciating cultural diversity
*Goldsmith et al., 2006
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USC Annenberg 13
Are we learning as fast as the world is
changing?
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ACE Management Education 14
The Future Has a Short Shelf LifeThe Future Has a Short Shelf Life
• Disruptive technologies
• Speed of global change
• Generational differences
• Niche markets
Where are the inflection points?
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USC Annenberg 15
The Strategy StoryThe Strategy Story• Strategy formulation took off in the 60s and 70s
– Advanced computerized statistical models and forecasting tools were developed
• By the 90s strategy was much maligned as a concept– Many argued it was not worth the time because the
environment changes too rapidly– Some organizations were paralyzed by their strategies and
unable to change course
• After the dot-com bubble burst, however, many companies learned that knowing what their core strategy was and operating according to those principles was the best way to gain competitive advantage
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USC Annenberg 16
Strategy BasicsStrategy Basics• It is about choice
– What to do, what not to do to achieve the vision• A strategy can be formulated at three different levels
– Corporate/enterprise—• Reach—has to do with types of businesses and how they will be
integrated and maintained• Competitive contact—defining where in the corporation
competition is to be localized• Managing activities and business interrelationships—synergies,
joint investments• Management practices—governed centrally or more or less
autonomous government– Business unit
• Positioning the business against rivals• Assessing and adjusting to changes in demand and
technologies• Vertical or horizontal integration• Lobbying
– Functional• Business processes and the value chain
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ACE Management Education 17
Competitive AdvantageCompetitive Advantage
• Three major approaches– Cost leadership– Differentiation
• Creativity• Market niches
– Focus
• To deal with rivalries– Threat of substitutes
• Switching costs• Buyer inclination
– Buying power• Volume• Brand identity
– Barriers to entry• Access to distribution
– Supplier power• Volume
– Degree of rivalry• Exit barriers• Industry concentration
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ACE Management Education 18
Strategy ImplementationStrategy ImplementationOnly 10% of
organizations execute their strategy
Vision Barrier
Only 5% of the workforce understands the strategy
People Barrier
Only 25% of managers have incentives linked to strategy
Management Barrier
85% of executive teams spend less than one hr per mth. discussing strategy
Resource Barrier
60% of organizations don’t link budgets to strategy
Barriers to strategy execution
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USC Annenberg 19
Strategic LeadershipStrategic Leadership
USC Center for Organizational Effectiveness
Remember:Strategic thinking and planning is
the process of deciding the optimal alignment between unlimited needs and limited resources to achieve your priorities.
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ACE Management Education 20
New Business VentureNew Business Venture
• Identify market– Competitive landscape
• Financial metrics and issues– e.g., Possible revenues and likely costs
• Options– Evaluating different paths through scenario
planning– Risks?
• Formulate strategy• Next steps
– Specific and actionable– Timetable
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ACE Management Education 21
Scenario PlanningScenario Planning
Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty.
—Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch/Shell
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ACE Management Education 22
Scenario ProcessScenario Process• Step 1—Uncovering the decision
– Related to mission, e.g., “where is the industry going?”
– Find key factors in the business system that would influence the success or failure of the decision
• Step 2—Information-hunting and –gathering– Science and technology developments– Perception-shaping events– Fringe ideas that spread
• Step 3—Identifying the driving forces of a scenario (organizations normally have little control over these)– Government regulations– Social forces– Environmental developments
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ACE Management Education 23
Scenario Process continuedScenario Process continued
• Step 4—Uncover the predetermined elements (will happen independent of the scenario)– Demographics– “Pipeline” effects
• Step 5—Identify critical uncertainties– Two or three factors that are most important and
most uncertain– e.g., education funding, strength of USD
• Step 6—Compose scenarios– Like a script—has a plot line– Narrow down ideas to 2-3 stories
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ACE Management Education 24
Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis
• Step 7—Analysis of the implications of the decisions according to the scenarios– Is the strategy more robust in one scenario
versus the other?– What vulnerabilities have been revealed?
• Step 8—Selection of leading indicators– Monitor to see which scenario is unfolding
or whether an unforeseen path is emerging (e.g., societal response to 9/11)
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ACE Management Education 25
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USC Annenberg 26
ScenariosScenarios
• Stories• Plausible• 5- 20 years out• The key is the conversation
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ACE Management Education 27
Scenario ExerciseScenario Exercise
• Few talked about own organizations– When they do they say good things!
• Scattered future
• Non-profits scenarios are not much based on technology
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ACE Management Education 28
Effective LeadersEffective Leaders
GoodStory
Good PeopleRight ToolsProcesses
Communication
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USC Annenberg 29
A Good Story Needs Good Communication
A Good Story Needs Good Communication
• Communicating in a “Confidentiality Culture”
• Communicating across functions
• Creating organizational alignment
• The enterprise view– Creating real
organizational synergies through improved communication and collaboration
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USC Annenberg 30
When you have a real
innovation, don’t compromise!
Peter Drucker
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ACE Management Education 31
Performance: Balanced ScorecardPerformance: Balanced Scorecard
• Be sure to measure – Financial and creative performance– Performance for the customer– The performance of internal business
processes– Learning and growth
• Typically you don’t get what you don’t measure
Adapted from Niven, 2002.
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USC Annenberg 32
“You can’t depend on your eyes if your
imagination is out of focus.”
Mark Twain