extreme heat in oregon
DESCRIPTION
Extreme heat in Oregon. Dan Rubado, MPH Epidemiologist Office of Environmental Public Health. 700 documented heat-related deaths in the US per year *. * more than all other weather-related deaths combined. 1995 Chicago heat wave. 5 days above 100°F apparent temperature. 739 deaths. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Extreme heat in Oregon
Dan Rubado, MPHEpidemiologist
Office of Environmental Public Health
700documented heat-related deaths in the US per year*
*more than all other weather-related deaths combined
1995 Chicago heat wave
5 days above 100°F apparent temperature739 deaths1,072
hospitalizations3,300 ED visits
14.6 heat-related death rate ratio for adults 65+
2006 California heat wave
11 consecutive days above 100°F 655 deaths1,182
hospitalizations16,166 ED visits
2003 heat wave in FranceHottest summer in Europe in the last 500
years
14,800 deaths
4.4 relative risk of heat-related death with no AC
15 consecutive days over 95°F
impacts of climate change
average summer time heat-related deaths are projected to increase, with larger increases in
mid-latitude cities.
oh no!are we headed for a fiery future of endless heat
waves?
110°F highest average temperature in the state
statewide climate statistics77°F average day time high temperature
50°F average night time low temperature
37.2 average number of days above 85°F
1.7 average number of days above 100°F
statewide heat-related illness stats
33.3 heat-related hospitalizations per year
111,277 total hospitalizations per year
1.8 heat-related deaths per year
11,300 total deaths per year
compared to:
Coos Bay climate normals96°F highest average temperature
coastal region68°F average day time high temperature
49°F average night time low temperature
1.1 average number of days above 85°F
0 average number of days above 100°F
La Grande climate normals
eastern region80°F average day time high temperature
46°F average night time low temperature
56.5 average number of days above 85°F
1.9 average number of days above 100°F
108°F highest average temperature
Medford climate normals
southwest region82°F average day time high temperature
49°F average night time low temperature
69.8 average number of days above 85°F
4.8 average number of days above 100°F
110°F highest average temperature
Corvallis climate normals
Willamette valley region
77°F average day time high temperature
51°F average night time low temperature
32.7 average number of days above 85°F
1.3 average number of days above 100°F
108°F highest average temperature
working hypothesishigh summer temperatures are associated with modest increases in deaths and hospital admissions, associations that vary regionally.
research questions1. what are the effects of heat on different
health outcomes in Oregon?2. how hot does it have to get before we see
big increases in heat-related illness?3. how do these effects vary regionally and for
vulnerable age groups?
N 4 miles
zip code boundary
Oregon zip codes
big town
small town
geographic center
population weighted center
weather station
w1 = 1 - d1/(d1 + d2)
w2 = 1 - d2/(d1 + d2)
d1 d
2
d3• daily
max temp
• daily min temp
weighted
average:
selected
stations
daily hospital admission
counts
daily mortality counts
Census zip code
population estimates
weather station data
analysis methodsPoisson regression model:log(count) = log(population) + α +
β(predictor)
outcome variablesheat-related hospitalizationsheat-related deaths
predictor variablestemperature variables and climate region
outcome predictorrate ratio (95%
CI) p-valueheat-related hospitalizations
max temp 3.66 (3.18, 4.22) <0.0001min temp 1.37 (1.12, 1.68) 0.0019
age 0-4 heat-related hospitalizations
max temp -- --min temp -- --
age 65+ heat-related hospitalizations
max temp 3.79 (3.15, 4.56) <0.0001min temp 1.33 (0.98, 1.80) 0.0648
initial resultssignificant
predictors:maximum temperatureminimum temperature
Min temp
Max
te
mp
r = 0.49p = <0.0001
coastal
eastern
southwestern
willamette
tmax6
5
tmax7
0
tmax7
5
tmax8
0
tmax8
5
tmax9
0
tmax9
5
tmax1
00
tmax1
051.06.0
11.016.021.026.0
Maximum Temperature Threshold and Heat Hospitalization Rate Ratio
Daily Maximum Temperature Threshold
Hea
t H
osp
Rate
Rat
io
tmin4
5tm
in50
tmin5
5tm
in60
tmin6
5tm
in70
tmin7
51.0
6.0
11.0
16.0
21.0
26.0
Minimum Temperature Threshold and Heat Hospitalization Rate Ratio
Daily Minimum Temperature Threshold
Hea
t H
osp
Rate
Rat
io
additional outcomes
hospitalizationsall non-injuryelectrolyte imbalancenephritiskidney failurecerebrovascular diseasecardiovascular disease
myocardial infarction
respiratory illnessasthma
deathsall non-injurycardiovascular diseaserespiratory illness
findingssignificant associations
all non-injury hospitalizations and deathselectrolyte imbalance hospitalizationsnephritis hospitalizationskidney failure hospitalizations
significant heat variablesmaximum temperatureminimum temperature (not deaths)
findings
outcome predictor
adjusted rate ratio (95%
CI) p-valueall non-injury hospitalizations
max temp 1.009 (1.006, 1.011) <0.0001min temp 0.992 (0.987, 0.997) 0.0011
Age 65+ non-injury hospitalizations
max temp 1.012 (1.007, 1.018) <0.0001min temp 0.987 (0.979, 0.995) 0.0011
electrolyte hospitalizations
max temp 1.056 (1.034, 1.077) <0.0001
min temp 1.047 (1.002, 1.094) 0.0392
all non-injury deaths max temp 1.009 (1.001, 1.017) 0.0231
all non-injury hospitalizations
electrolyte imbalance hospitalizations
all non-injury deaths
tmax6
5
tmax7
0
tmax7
5
tmax8
0
tmax
85
tmax9
0
tmax9
5
tmax1
00
tmax1
050.9000
1.4000
1.9000
2.4000
2.9000
Maximum Temperature Threshold and Electrolyte Hospitalization Rate Ratio
Daily Maximum Temperature ThresholdElec
trol
yte
Hos
pita
lizat
ion
Rat
e Ra
tio
tmin4
5tm
in50
tmin5
5tm
in60
tmin6
5tm
in70
tmin7
50.9000
1.4000
1.9000
2.4000
2.9000
Minimum Temperature Threshold and Electrolyte Hospitalization Rate Ratio
Daily Minimum Temperature ThresholdElec
trol
yte
Hos
pita
lizat
ion
Rat
e Ra
tio
summaryheat is not a major health issue in Oregon...there is an association between heat and illness that varies by regionthere are more heat-related deaths and illnesses than reportedsignificant health effects may occur below what the weather service uses to issue heat advisoriesimpacts were slightly greater on the 65+ age groupcontrary to popular belief, it does get hot in Oregonwith climate change, more hot weather is on the way
yet
thank you