facility design
DESCRIPTION
FACILITY DESIGN. NURUL UMMI, ST MT. PERENCANAAN FASILITAS. Beberapa pertanyaan yang harus dijawab sebelum rencana alternative fasilitas dikembangkan : Apa yang akan diproduksi ? Desain produk Bagaimana produk diproduksi ? Desain Proses Kapan produk diproduksi ? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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FACILITY DESIGNNURUL UMMI, ST MT
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PERENCANAAN FASILITASBeberapa pertanyaan yang harus dijawab sebelum rencana alternative fasilitas dikembangkan :
Apa yang akan diproduksi ? Desain produk
Bagaimana produk diproduksi ? Desain Proses
Kapan produk diproduksi ? Schedule desain
Berapa banyak masing-masing produk akan diproduksi ? Schedule desain (peramalan permintaan produk)
Berapa lama produk tersebut akan diproduksi ? Schedule desain
Dimana akan diproduksi ? Penentuan lokasi pabrik
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Hubungan Desain produk, Desain proses & Schedule desain
Hubungan Product, Process, dan Schedle Design dengan Perencanaan FasilitasSumber : Thompkins , 2003
Desain proses, desain produk, dan schedule design tidak dilakukan terpisah tetapi dilakukan dengan melihat permasalahan secara menyeluruh.
Product
Design
Process
Design
Facility Design
Schedule
Design
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Desain Produk Kegiatan ini menentukan produk yang
akan diproduksi dan desain detil dari produk tersebut.
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Desain Proses Kegiatan ini menentukan bagaimana produk dan masing-masing
komponennya diproduksi, dibeli atau sub kontrak.
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Bill of Material (BOM)Pada tahap ini akan dihasilkan Struktur Produk dan Bill of Material (BOM) yang berisi informasi tentang level perakitan produk, komponen yang dibutuhkan dan jumlahnya serta sumber dari setiap komponen dibuat atau dibeli
Definisikan elemen operasi
Identifikasi alternative proses untuk setiap operasi
Analisis alternative operasi
Standarisasi proses
Evaluasi alternative proses
Pilih proses
Prosedur Menyeleksi ProsesSumber : Thompkins : Facilities Planning, 2003
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Schedule Design
Schedule Design untuk menjawab pertanyaan kapan harus dibuat dan berapa banyak. Berapa banyak yang harus diproduksi berdasarkan peramalan terhadap permintaan.
Dalam merencanakan fasilitas pabrik sebaiknya kapasitas produksi yang akan dibangun dilakukan berdasarkan peramalan jangka panjang yaitu lima sampai sepuluh tahun, karena dengan segera kelebihan fasilitas akan dipakai lebih cepat dari perkiraan
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Desain Fasilitas Prosedur pengembangan tata letak dikembangkan oleh Muther
(Tompkins, 2003) yang dikenal sebagai Systematic Layout Planning (SLP).
Langkah-langkah dalam SLP dapat diterjemahkan dalam 10 langkah tugas besar perencanaan lay out pabrik sebagai berikut :
Forecasting Merencanakan urutan proses (OPC, MPPC) Membuat Routing Sheet Merencanakan luas lantai produksi Menentukan luas gudang, organisasi perusahaan dan luas lantai
penunjang produksi Membuat From to Chart Menghitung ongkos material handling Membuat ARC Membuat ARD dan AAD Membuat Templete
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Input data dan kegiatan
1. Analisis aliran Operasi
2.An. Keterkaitan Kegiatan
3. Diagram Keterk. Kegiatan
4. Luas lantai yg dibutuhkan
5. Luas lantai yg tersedia
6. Diagram keterk. ruangan
7. Pertimbangan modifikasi
8. Pembatasan praktis
9. Pengembangan alternative lay out
10. Evaluasi
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Peramalan :“If we can predict what the future will
be like we can modify our behaviour now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been, when the future arrives.”
Artinya, jika kita dapat memprediksi apa yang terjadi di masa depan maka kita dapat mengubah kebiasaan kita saat ini menjadi lebih baik dan akan jauh lebih berbeda di masa yang akan datang
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Metode Peramalan
Rentang Waktu Tipe Keputusan ContohJangka Pendek( 3 – 6 bulan)
OperasionalPerencanaan Produksi, Distribusi
Jangka Menengah( 2 tahun)
TaktisPenyewaan Lokasi dan Peralatan
Jangka Panjang(Lebih dari 2 tahun)
Strategis
Penelitian dan Pengembangan untuk akuisisi dan mergerAtau pembuatan produk baru
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Model Peramalan Kuantitatif Deret Berkala (Time Series)Metode ini menggunakan riwayat
permintaan masa lalu dalam membuat ramalan untuk masa depan
Metode Rata-rata Bergerak (Moving Average Method)
n
TerdahuluPeriodendalamtaanPer
_min
BerikutnyaPeriodeRamalan
CONTOH
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Week
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Pati
ent
arri
vals
Actual patientarrivals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
1 4002 3803 411
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
1 4002 3803 411
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
Week
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
1 4002 3803 411
F4 = 411 + 380 + 4003
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
1 4002 3803 411
F4 = 397.0
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
1 4002 3803 411
F4 = 397.0
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
Week
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
2 3803 4114 415
F5 = 415 + 411 + 3803
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Actual patientarrivals
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
Week
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PatientWeek Arrivals
2 3803 4114 415
F5 = 402.0
Pati
ent
arri
vals
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TIME-SERIES METHODSMOVING AVERAGES
Week
450 —
430 —
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Pati
ent
arri
vals
Actual patientarrivals
3-week MAforecast
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)F(F F 1-t1 1-tt tA
Metode Pemulusan Exponensial (Exponential Smoothing Method)
Keterangan :Ft = nilai ramalan untuk periode waktu ke-tFt-1 = nilai ramalan untuk satu periode waktu yang lalu, t-1At-1 = nilai aktual untuk satu periode waktu yang lalu, t-1α = konstanta pemulusan (Smoothing Constant) (0 < < 1)
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Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)Ft = Forecast value
At = Actual value = Smoothing constant
Exponential Smoothing Equations
CONTOH
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IF = .10. and The first period forecast was 175.. Period Actual
1 180 2 168
3 1594 1755 190
6 2057 1808 1829 ?
Exponential Smoothing Example
Find the forecast for the 9th Period.
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Period Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 1683 1594 1755 190
6 205
175.00 +
Exponential Smoothing
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Period Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168 175.00 + .10(3 1594 1755 1906 205
Exponential SmoothingFt = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
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Period Actual Forecast, Ft(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 -3 1594 1755 1906 205
Exponential SmoothingFt = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
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Actual Forecast, Ft(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00)3 1594 1755 1906 205
Exponential SmoothingFt = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Period
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Actual Forecast, Ft(α= .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.503 1594 1755 1906 205
Exponential SmoothingFt = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.503 159175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.754 1755 1906 205
Exponential Smoothing
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1995 180 175.00 (Given)1996 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.501997 159175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.751998 1751999 1902000 205
174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75)= 173.18
Exponential Smoothing
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.503 159175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.754 175174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.366 205
Exponential Smoothing
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)2 168175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.503 159175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.754 175174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.366 205173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Exponential Smoothing
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
4 175174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.366 205173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Exponential Smoothing
7 1808
175.02 + .10(205 - 175.02) = 178.02
9
Period
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Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Actual Forecast, F t(α = .10)
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.366 205 173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Exponential Smoothing
7 1808
175.02 + .10(205 - 175.02) = 178.02
9 178.22 + .10(182 - 178.22) = 178.58 182 178.02 + .10(180 - 178.02) = 178.22
?
Period
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Metode Analisis Garis Kecenderungan (Trend Line Analysis Method)
bt a Ft
Keterangan : F t = Nilai Ramalan untuk Periode Waktu Ke-ta = Intercepb = Slope dari Garis Kecenderungan (Trend Line)t = Indeks Waktu (t = 1, 2, 3,....., n)
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Keterangan :b = Slope dari Persamaan Garis Lurusa = Intercep dari Persamaan Garis Lurust = Indeks Waktu (t = 1, 2, 3,....., n)A = Data Aktual PermintaantA = Indeks Waktu x Data Aktual Permintaan n = Jumlah Data t_bar = Nilai rata-rata dari tA_bar = Nilai Rata-Rata Permintaan Per Periode Waktu(Rata-Rata dari A)
Slope dan Intersep dari persamaan garis lurus dihitung dengan menggunakan formula sebagai berikut :
b(t_bar) - (A_bar) a
22 )_(
)_)(_(bartnt
barAbartntAb
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VALLIDASI PERAMALAN Perhitungan Akurasi Peramalan
1. MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation = Rata- rata Penyimpangan Absolut).
n
E MAD
Keterangan : |E | = Absolute Errorn = Jumlah Data
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n
En
t 1
2
MSE
2. MSE (Mean Square Error = Rata-rata Kuadrat Kesalahan)
Keterangan :E2 = Nilai Error yang Dikuadratkann = Jumlah Data
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n
PEn
t 1 MAPE
3. MAPE ( Mean Absolute Procentage Error = Rata-rata Persentase kesalahan Absolut)
Keterangan :|PE | = Persentase Absolute Error n = Jumlah Data
CONTOH
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Mean Square Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Forecast Error Equations2
n
1i
2ii
nerrorsforecast
n
)y(yMSE
nn
yyMAD
n
iii
|errorsforecast ||ˆ|
1
nactual
forecastactual
100MAPE
n
1i i
ii
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How to calculate the accuracy of forecast?Example
Actual Exponential SmoothingYear Sales Forecast (.9)
1998 1 1.01999 1 1.02000 2 1.92001 2 2.02002 4 3.8
Selecting Forecasting Model Example
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MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 0.05 / 5 = 0.01MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 0.3 / 5 = 0.06MAPE = 100 Σ |Absolute percent errors|/n = 0.10/5 = 0.02
Exponential Smoothing Methode EvaluationYear
19981999200020012002
Total
Y i11224
Y i1.0 0.01.0 0.01.9 0.12.0 0.03.8 0.2
0.3
^ Error
0.000.000.010.000.040.05 0.3
Error2
0.00.00.10.00.2
|Error||Error|Actual
0.000.000.050.000.05
0.10
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Exponential Smoothing Methode Evaluation
Exponential Smoothing Model:MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 0.05 / 5 = 0.01
MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 0.3 / 5 = 0.06MAPE = 100 Σ |Absolute percent errors|/n = 0.10/5 = 0.02
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Tracking Signal
MADRSFESignalTracking
Keterangan : RSFE = Jumlah Berjalan dari Nilai kesalahan
Peramalan (Nilai Kumulatif Error)MAD = Rata-rata Kesalahan Absolut
CONTOH
merupakan suatu ukuran untuk menentukan seberapa baiknya suatu ramalan dalam memperkirakan nilai-
nilai aktual
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Tracking Signal Equation
MADerrorforecast
MAD
yy
MADRSFETS
n
iii
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No Fcst Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
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No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10
Error = Actual - Forecast = 90 - 100 = -10
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
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No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10
RSFE = Errors = NA + (-10) = -10
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
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No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10
Abs Error = |Error| = |-10| = 10
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
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No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10
Cum |Error| = |Errors| = NA + 10 = 10
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 53: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum|Error|
MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0
MAD = |Errors|/n = 10/1 = 10
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 54: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
TS = RSFE/MAD = -10/10 = -1
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 55: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5
Error = Actual - Forecast = 95 - 100 = -5
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 56: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5 -15
RSFE = Errors = (-10) + (-5) = -15
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 57: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5 -15 5
Abs Error = |Error| = |-5| = 5
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 58: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5 -15 5 15
Cum Error = |Errors| = 10 + 5 = 15
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 59: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5 -15 5 15 7.5
MAD = |Errors|/n = 15/2 = 7.5
|Error|
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 60: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
No Forc Act Error RSFE AbsError
Cum MAD TS
1 100 902 100 953 100 1154 100 1005 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1-5 -15 5 15 7.5 -2
|Error|
TS = RSFE/MAD = -15/7.5 = -2
Tracking Signal Computation
![Page 61: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Plot of a Tracking Signal
Time
Lower control limit
Upper control limit
Signal exceeded limit
Tracking signal
Acceptable rangeMAD
+
0
-
![Page 62: FACILITY DESIGN](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062310/5681623c550346895dd270fb/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Tugas -1 Buat desain produk untuk produk
manufaktur. Gambarkan secara detail masing-masing komponen
Buat desain proses OPC beserta BOM Ramalkan kebutuhan produk tersebut
“asumsi terjadi pertumbuhan per tahun sebesar 7%.