fastforward study: high speed global point-to-point transportation investigative group 1 dr. john r....

FastForward Study: High Speed Global Point-To-Point Transportation Investigative Group1

Dr. John R. Olds, PEExecutive Director, FastForward Project Study GroupCEO | SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8002

Mr. Dominic DePasqualeDeputy Director, FastForward Project Study GroupDirector of Washington, D.C. Operations | SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. | [email protected] | 1+202.503.1753

FastForward Study Project: Overview of Activities and Findings Fall 2012 COMSTAC Meeting | October2012 | Version B


Outline

1. Introduction to the FastForward Project

Mission Statement

Current Membership

Focus Areas

Group History and Statistics

2. Key FastForward Project Products (2008-2012)

PtP Publications

Market Research and Analysis

Analytical Tools and Models

1. Important Findings and Conclusions to Date


INTRODUCTION


Mission Statement

• The FastForward Project is a diverse, ad-hoc study group focused on common issues related to future high-speed commercial point-to-point transportation (including passenger travel and fast package delivery)

– All-volunteer effort consisting of industry, government, and academia

– Hosted by SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (Atlanta, GA, USA)

• Our focus is on examining pre-competitive issues and questions key to understanding the technical and economic viability of future global high speed point-to-point passenger and cargo services

• Our group produces technical papers, white papers, market analysis, and software tools related to global PtP transportation for use by our members and the community at-large


Current FastForward Project Members


Primary FastForward Study Group Focus Areas

1. Market assessment and characterization of future commercial high

speed point-to-point service for passengers and cargo, including

economic drivers

2. Identification of key regulatory and policy issues and challenges

3. Evaluation of candidate flight vehicle options and technology needs

4. Identification of key challenges for emerging Aerospaceports in the U.S.

and abroad

5. Identification of synergies with ongoing government investments on

advanced high-speed flight programs and technologies

The focus of FastForward is on pre-competitive analysis and assessment of future global high-speed point-to-point passenger and cargo services


History and Statistics

52 individual volunteer members and affiliates 30 organizations are represented Member organizations consist of major aerospace contractors, emerging new space

companies, spaceports, key federal government agencies, and academia

Membership

Hosted 22 bimonthly teleconferences featuring 28 different keynote speakers promoting information exchange and serving as a forum for PtP discussions

Established a web presence at www.fastforwardproject.com for disseminating papers and presentations

Sponsored members-only workshops at the FAA Commercial Space Workshop and ISPCS conferences

Participated in 4 panel sessions discussing the potential of PtP markets at SPACE 2009, Google Talks, NewSpace 2009, CRASTE 2009 (CRLV Session)

Key Activities

Founded in 2008, the membership and activities of the FastForward Project have continued to grow and evolve


Key Products (2008-2012)


Publications

1. Six Technical Papers Related to PtP Markets and Business Cases

– IAC 2008, SPACE 2009 (2), IAC 2009, 2011 IAA Symposium on Private Human Access to Space (2)

2. List of Opportunities for Study and Research Related to High-Speed PtP Flight

– “Needs List” targeting graduate students and academic researchers

3. Top 7 Challenges Facing Spaceports for Future PtP

– Collaborative effort of FastForward spaceport members (October 2009)

4. FastForward Group White Paper (October 2009)

– Getting Faster: A Case for High-Speed Global Point-to-Point Flight as a Logical Transition Between Suborbital Space Tourism and Low-Cost, Reusable Space Access

The FastForward Project has produced numerous publications and research material related to ultra-high speed PtP flight


Supporting Market Research and Analysis

Passenger Market

– Air Transportation Passenger Data Annex published in support of Point-to-Point People with Purpose at the 2011 IAA Symposium on Private Human Access to Space

– Quantification of the first class passenger market along potential PtP routes

Cargo Market

– Quantification of the top 5 intercontinental air cargo routes based upon data from Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast

– Is the World Ready for High-Speed Intercontinental Package Delivery analysis of priority cargo market published at IAC 2008

Public Market Surveys Pertaining to Commercial PtP

– 2011 - 2012 online surveys conducted related to high speed PtP flight issues summarized in Findings of 2011-2012 Surveys

FastForward members have conducted in-depth research and analysis of the potential market for PtP networks


Analytical Tools and Models

GHoST Calculator (Global Hypersonic Shipping Time Calculator)

– Excel-based tool for calculating fast package delivery times for candidate cities given range, pickup/distribution times, and vehicle average flight speed (members only release from SpaceWorks)

– Summarized in technical paper AIAA-2009-6403

The FastForward Project has developed a suite of software tools for use by our members for PtP research

Simulation of Global Ultra-High Speed PtP Transportation Services Network of 13 Potential Destinations

– Rockwell Arena-based, discrete event simulation network operations model of a notional future global PtP system (limited distribution from SpaceWorks)

– Used to perform trade studies and analyses on vehicle design parameters, ground operations, fleet operations and sizing, and market models


Important Findings and Conclusions to Date


Important Observations and Conclusions to Date (1 of 2)

The knowledge gained from several years of FastForward Project collaboration has provided insight into many key areas of interest

1. The path toward a scheduled global ultra-high speed service is likely to be evolutionary, with early “on-demand” suborbital vehicles and supersonic business jets in the next decade leading to broader scheduled services later

2. Market evolution from simple up-down suborbital space tourism flights to longer range PtP flights seems like the most interesting first generation market for an ultra-high speed passenger service

3. Significant economic, technical, and regulatory challenges exist for the development of commercially viable, global PtP transportation networks

4. From an economic perspective, sustainable markets for fast passenger travel and priority cargo will, on an overall global average, only support relatively low premiums over today’s prices while the vehicles needed to meet these demands are still very expensive to operate. Careful market research and route identification (specific routes and specific goods and services that will be profitable) and reductions in flight vehicle operating costs are both needed before PtP will be economically viable


Important Observations and Conclusions to Date (2 of 2)

The knowledge gained from several years of FastForward Project collaboration has provided insight into many key areas of interest.5. Supporting regulatory frameworks need to be established with early FAA

engagement as issues such as overflight laws, liability insurance, noise restrictions, customs, and integration with NexGen ATC may be unique and time consuming to resolve domestically and internationally

6. “Spaceports” are leading the way for near-term PtP, and will likely form the first global network of destinations to be followed later by commercial airports

7. Significant military synergies exist with dual-use technology investment opportunities in critical need areas including propulsion, thermal protection, and autonomous flight control. This makes early government technology investment critically important for high-speed PtP vehicle risk and development cost reductions

8. Multiple technical solutions for high-speed PtP vehicles appear viable, including supersonic jets, hypersonic cruisers, and ballistic rocket vehicles. There are likely to be many solutions to offer this class of service, each optimized for its target submarket and reflecting the developing organization’s experience and interests


www.fastforwardproject.com

fastforward study: high speed global point-to-point transportation investigative group 1 dr. john r....

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