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February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein Department of Genome Sciences University of Washington, Seattle email: [email protected]

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Page 1: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

February, 2002Genetics 453

Evolutionary Genetics

Coalescents

Joe Felsenstein

Department of Genome SciencesUniversity of Washington, Seattle

email: [email protected]

Page 2: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Cann, R. L., M. Stoneking, and A. C. Wilson. 1987. Mitochondrial DNAand human evolution. Nature 325:a 31-36.

Page 3: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein
Page 4: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 5: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 6: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 7: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 8: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 9: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 10: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 11: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 12: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 13: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 14: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 15: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

A random−mating population

Page 16: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

Genealogy of gene copies, after reordering the copies

Page 17: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

Genealogy of a small sample of genes from the population

Page 18: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

Page 19: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

each gene comes from a random copyin the previous generation

a chance of 1 out of 2N that anotherone comes from the same copy

hence it takes about 2N generations fortwo lineages to coalesce�

under the Wright−Fisher model

Page 20: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

u9u

8u

7u6u

5

u4

u3

u2

Coalescent trees of gene copies within species (Kingman, 1982)Random collision of lineages as go back in time (sans recombination)

Collision is faster the smaller the effective population size

Average time for �

k copies to coalesce to k−1 = k(k−1)

4N�

e

Average time for �

n 1 − 1n ( generations (copies to coalesce = 4N

e

Average time for two copies to coalesce = �

generationse2N

In a diploid population of effective population size eN

Page 21: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Two levels of variability

can reduce variability by looking at(i) more gene copies, or(ii) more loci

(2) Randomness of coalescence of lineages

can reduce variance of

branch by examining more sitesnumber of mutations per site per

affected by the u

(1) Randomness of mutation

Necoalescence times allow estimation of

Neaffected by effective population size

mutation rate

Page 22: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Coalescent with population size changing through time

During a population bottleneckthere is expected to be aburst of coalescence

Down near the root of the treeeffects of population sizebecome difficult to see

size of population

Page 23: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Time

population #1 population #2

Page 24: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Recomb.

A recombining coalescent

Different markers have slightly different coalescent trees

Page 25: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Africa

Europe Asia

"Out of Africa" hypothesis

(vertical scale is not time or evolutionary change)

Page 26: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Svante Paabo

Krings, M., H. Geisert, R. W. Schmitz, H. Krainitzki, and S. Paabo.1999. DNA sequence of the mitochondrial hypervariable region II from theneandertal type specimen. Proceedings of the Natonal Academy of SciencesUSA 96: 5581-5585.

Ovchinnikov, I. V., A. Gotherstrom, G. P. Romanova, V. M. Kharitonov, K.Liden, and W. Goodwin. 2000. Molecular analysis of Neanderthal DNA fromthe northern Caucasus. Nature 404: 490-493.

Page 27: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein
Page 28: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Tree of gene copies, compared with the phylogeny of the speciesfor the case in which effective population size is small

compared to the number of generations between speciations

The tree of gene copies has topology consistent with the phylogeny

Page 29: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Tree of gene copies, compared with the phylogeny of the species

compared to the number of generations between speciationsfor the case in which effective population size is large

The tree of gene copies has topology inconsistent with the phylogeny

Page 30: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

Jody Hey Rich Kliman and friend

Kliman, R. M., and J. Hey. 1993. DNA sequence variation at the periodlocus within and among species of the Drosophila melanogaster complex.Genetics 133: 375-87

Hey, J. and R. M. Kliman. 1993. Population genetics and phylogenetics ofDNA sequence variation at multiple loci within the Drosophila melanogasterspecies complex. Molecular Biology Evolution 10: 804-822.

Page 31: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

East Africa

Page 32: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein
Page 33: February, 2002 Genetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescentsdepts.washington.edu/genetics/courses/genet453/2002/section7bw.pdfGenetics 453 Evolutionary Genetics Coalescents Joe Felsenstein

This freeware-friendly presentation prepared with

• Linux (operating system)

• PDFLaTeX (mathematical typesetting and PDF preparation)

• Idraw (drawing program to modify plots and draw figures)

• Adobe Acrobat Reader (to display the PDF in full-screen mode)

(except that we had to use Microsoft Windows to project this as the Xserver I have in Linux is not too great)