federal r&d budgets in fy 2016: context and update matt hourihan june 24, 2015 for the american...
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Federal R&D Budgets in FY 2016: Context and Update
Matt HourihanJune 24, 2015for the American Society of Mechanical Engineers
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Federal Industry Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Federal Research Funding by Disciplineas a Share of GDP, 1978-2014
Life Sci
Physical Sci
Engineering
Environ Sci
Math / Comp
Social Sciences
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB. © 2015 AAAS
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Federal Funds for EngineeringResearch, 1992 - 2012
(billions of constant 2015 dollars)
Aeronautical
Metallurgy &materials
Electrical
Astronautical
Civil
Chemical
Mechanical
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. © 2015 AAAS
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Other AppliedResearch
Other BasicResearch
AppliedResearch atUniversities
Basic Researchat Universities
Basic and Applied Engineering Research Funding, FY 2012obligations in millions
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. © 2015 AAAS
Defense Discretionary
$528 [Defense R&D]$77
Nondefense Discretionary
$495
[Nondefense R&D]$69
Social Security$938
Medicare$583
Medicaid$351
Other Mandatory$670
Net Interest$283
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)
President's FY 2016 Budget Budget ConferenceBased on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
6.4%
-35.5%0.9%
2.2%
5.0%
8.1%
12.6%
17.8%
20.5%
23.3%
44.8%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
TOTAL
Justice (DHS)
Space
Health (includes NIH)
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Defense Activities
Environment Agencies
Transportation
Agriculture
Applied Energy Programs
Commerce (includes NIST)
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
Major Funding Priorities for FY16 Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science:
Neuroscience; Advanced computing
COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%
*New for FY16
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
DOE, $12.5
NASA, $12.2
NSF, $6.3
USDA, $2.9
Commerce, $2.1All Other, $6.2
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016budget authority in billions of dollars
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
Total R&D = $145.3 billion
National Security Request:
DOD S&T flat, DARPA +1.9% 8.3% cut to basic research
Approps: Senate refutes basic research cuts Cuts for DARPA Defense bill blocked in Senate
DHS: NBAF funding completed; moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T Directorate
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
Trends in DOD Science & Technologyin billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
ARRA Medical researchAdv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2)Basic (6.1)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Energy Request Technology offices: renewed
focus on efficiency, renewables, ARPA-E, smart grid, CCS Manufacturing office to
double
DOE Science: +5.4% Advanced Computing:
+14.8% Domestic fusion research cut
15% ITER flat
Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci
Bio Env Res Fusion Energy
High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
ARPA-E
Efficiency and Renewables
Nuclear Energy
Fossil Energy
Electricity Delivery
Science
FY 2016 Energy Program Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Request House Senate Cmte
Figures include non-R&D. Inflation is 1.7 percent. © 2015 AAAS
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Adv Computing
Basic Energy Sci
Bio and Environ Res
Fusion Energy
High-Energy Phys
Nuclear Physics
TOTAL SCIENCE
FY 2016 Office of Science Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Request House Senate Cmte
Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
National Science Foundation Total Budget: +5.2% Highest relative changes:
SBE: +7.1%; Engineering: +6.4%
New priority areas: Food-water-energy; climate resilience
Approps: Senate flat; major cuts to GEO and SBE in House
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
NSF Directorate Budgets in AppropriationsBudget authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
MPS GEO ENG BIO CISE SBE
Source: NSF data, the FY 2016 request, and current appropriations. GEO and CISE have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
NASA Total budget: +2.9%
6.1% below FY05 levels
Familiar contours: Earth Science, Space Technology,
Commercial Crew program boosted Cuts to Planetary Science,
Astrophysics Exploration Systems Development,
Aeronautics funding reduced
Since FY10: Earth Sci +22.6% Planetary -9.6% Astrophys -0.7% Webb +28.1% Heliophys -2.9%
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
ARRA OtherExploration Systems Space OperationsSpace Technology AeronauticsScience
NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2015 AAAS
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Space Operations
Exploration
Space Technology
Aeronautics
JWST
Heliophysics
Astrophysics
Planetary Science
Earth Science
TOTAL SCIENCE
FY 2016 NASA Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Request House Senate Cmte
Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
Advanced Manufacturing National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal revived
NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas
EERE AM office doubled; NSF Cyber-physical systems Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems
Climate and Environment NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate research USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience; NASA Earth Science boost EPA S&T moderately increased Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems
National Institutes of Health $1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases:
Alzheimer’s research, translational science
New initiatives: Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million
for NIAID $200 million for Precision Medicine
Large increase for Big Data BRAIN Initiative contribution
increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3% Approps: Surprising increases?
$0
$5
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Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI
Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS
NIH Total
Most individual ICs fall within this band
NIAID
Looking ahead…
Democratic roadblocks
Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?
Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth
$10
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$16
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$19
$2020
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NIST, NSF and DOE ScienceBudgets in America COMPETES
in billions of constant 2015 dollars
COMPETES 2007 Path ARRACOMPETES 2010 Path ActualsGrowth at BCA Cap Rate* Growth to Keep Pace With GDPHouse GOP COMPETES House Dem COMPETESPresident's Request
*Sequester-level. Based on agency budgets, appropriations documents, and past and proposed COMPETES legislation. © 2015 AAAS
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$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
NSF Directorate Budgets and House COMPETESFunding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
Biological Science Computing** Engineering
Geoscience** Physical Science Social Science
*House proposal. **Adjusted for comparability. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
$0
$200
$400
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$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
DOE Budgets and House COMPETESFunding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
Nuclear Energy ARPA-E Fossil Energy EERE OE
*House proposal. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
For more info…
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program