The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context

Matt HourihanMarch 17, 2015for the Science, Engineering, and Technology Congressional Visits Day

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

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Total R&D

Defense

Nondefense

ARRA Total

ARRA Defense

ARRA Nondefense

Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1977-2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and appropriations data. Pre-1994 figures are NSF obligations data from the Federal Funds survey. FY 2016 is the President's request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © 2015 AAAS

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1.5%

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2.5%

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4.0%

6.0%

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12.0%

14.0%

Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2016

R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. FY 2016 is the President's request. © 2015 AAAS

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Federal Industry Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Research as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

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$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

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$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

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Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

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Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

President's FY 2016 Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

TOTAL

Homeland Security

DOD S&T

DOE Defense

NASA

Environ Protection Agency

National Institutes of Health

DOE Science

National Science Foundation

Veterans Affairs

DOD Other

US Geological Survey

Agriculture

DOE Energy Programs

Transportation

NIST

NOAA

Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budgetpercent change from FY15, constant dollars

Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015

Agency Notes NSF: Total Budget: +5.2%

Highest relative changes: social sciences, engineering; other disciplines and STEM Education programs also boosted

Defense S&T flat; 8.3% cut to basic research

Energy: Large increases, again, for renewable and energy efficiency technology offices, ARPA-E

DOE Office of Science: +5.4% EFRCs, Hubs, advanced

computing; Fusion research down

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DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars

Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci

Bio Env Res Fusion Energy

High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys

Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS

Agency Notes (Cont.) NIH: $1 billion program increase (+3.3%)

Priorities: Alzheimer's research, translational science

New priorities: Antibiotic Resistance, Precision Medicine

Success rate: 19.3%

Familiar contours for NASA: gains for technology office, Earth Science, little else

USDA: extramural research activities, intramural facilities

Climate research @ USGS, NOAA prioritized

A trim for DHS science & technology

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Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)

ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other

Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS

Looking ahead…

Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?

Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth Reconciliation strategy?

3. agency notes R&D STEM

Thanks!

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607http

://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program