1

•Daily Operations Briefing Wednesday, October 16, 2013

8:30 a.m. EDT

2

Significant Activity: Oct 15 – 16 Significant Events: None Tropical Activity: • Atlantic – Area 1 (10%) • Eastern Pacific – Tropical Depression Priscilla • Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through Thursday evening • Western Pacific – Tropical Depression 26W

Significant Weather: • Heavy rains – Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley • Elevated fire weather conditions – Southern California • Critical Fire Weather Areas / Red Flag Warnings: None • Space Weather: Minor radio blackouts observed; no space weather storms predicted for next 24 hours Earthquake Activity: M7.1 offshore of Papua New Guinea; no significant U.S. activity Declaration Activity: None

3

Updates at 2:00 am/pm and 8:00 am/pm EDT

Atlantic – Tropical Outlook

4

Atlantic - Area 1 As of 8:00 a.m. EDT • Broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms

extends from Bahamas northeast for several hundred miles • Low pressure is expected to form southeast of Bermuda over

the next day or two • Will move N then NE over the west-central Atlantic • Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: Low (10%) • Next 5 days: Low (10%)

5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook

6

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Depression Priscilla As of 5:00 a.m. EDT • Located 660 miles SW of southern tip of Baja California Mexico • Moving WNW at 7 mph • General motion expected through early Thursday tonight • Maximum sustained winds 35 mph • A decrease in forward speed and a turn W expected by early

Thursday • Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours • Expected to degenerate into remnant low tonight or Thursday

morning

7

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/ This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook

8

Western Pacific – Tropical Depression 26W As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, October 16 • Located 96 miles SSW of Guam; moving WSW at 13 mph • Maximum sustained winds 35 mph, gust of 46 mph • May become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday • Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Guam and the

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) • Guam and CNMI EOCs are not activated • FEMA Region IX remains at Watch/Steady State

9

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf

National Weather Forecast

10

Active Watches/Warnings

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

11

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml

Precipitation Forecast – 3 Day

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

13

River Forecast – 7 Day

14

Convective Outlooks Days 1 – 3 Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

15

Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8 Day 1 Day 2

Day 3-8

16

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: Oct 18 – 22

19

NOAA Scales Activity (Range: 1/minor to 5/extreme)

Past 24 Hours Current Next

24 Hours

Space Weather Activity: Minor None None

• Geomagnetic Storms None None None

• Solar Radiation Storms None None None

• Radio Blackouts R1 None None

Space Weather

Sunspot Activity

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html http://spaceweather.com/

HF Communication Impact

23

M7.1 Papua New Guinea • 6:31 p.m. EDT, October 16, 2013

• 44 miles WSW of Panguan, Papua New Guinea • Depth of 21 miles

• USGS issued a Green PAGER alert indicating • A low likelihood of casualties and damages

• No Pacific wide tsunami was generated • No requests for FEMA assistance

International Earthquake – Papua New Guinea

24

Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED

(since last report)

Requests DENIED (since last report)

1 Date Requested

KS – DR Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding September 25, 2013

Disaster Requests & Declarations

28

Open Field Offices as of October 16, 2013

29

Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total

30 1 7 1 39

OFDC Cadre Member Status

Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

8* 1 4 2 1

As of: 10/11/2013

* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event

Deployed Available Pending Hire On Board Positions

8 1 1 9 10

Federal Coordinating Officer

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

31

MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status

Fully Mission Capable 52 Partially Mission Capable 0 Non-Mission Capable 3 Total Not Deployed 34

MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS

Location Units Assigned

Available FMC

Deployed Committed PMC Unavailable DR-State OPCON En

Route Unit Prep Open Request Notes:

MERS Maynard 3 3 0 0 0 DR-4145-CO 21 0 0

MERS Frederick 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Thomasville 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

DC Ft Worth 20 6 14 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Denver 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Bothell 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0

Sacramento 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0

TOTAL 55 31 21 0 3 TOTAL 21 0 0 0 Included in above totals, units

in route for turn-in. 0 0

Data as of: 10/15/13 @ 1500

32

IA Registration Statistics

IA Registrations and IHP Amounts as of October 15, 2013 @ 1500

DR/EM # - State Registrations Approved Applicants Total HA Approved Total ONA

Approved Total IHP Approved

4145 - CO 24,646 14,209 $40,046,054 $2,874,947 $42,921,001 Totals 24,646 14,209 $40,046,054 $2,874,947 $42,921,001

24 hour change +146 +117 +$582,962 +$58,024 +$640,986

NPSC Call Data for October 14, 2013 Total Calls Answered (Help Line + Registration Intake) 1,529

Average time to answer call 15 seconds Maximum / Minimum time to answer a call 1 min 14 seconds / 8 seconds

33

Housing Inspection Statistics

Inspection Data as of October 15, 2013 @ 1500

DR #-State Inspectors Inspections Assigned

Inspections Completed Inspection % Complete Turnaround Time

(Days) 4145 - CO 27 21,528 21,240 98.66% 2.4

TOTAL 27 21,528 21,240 98.66% 2.4 24 hour change +1 +159 +130 -0.13% -0.0

35

IMAT Status National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Blue/White East West CO

Regional Teams Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region VIII

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-1

Region III Region VI-2 Region IX-2

Region IV-1 Region VII Region X

Region IV-2

= Assigned/Deployed = Not Mission Capable

= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable

36

Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

WEST CENTRAL EAST

Team Status Team Status Team Status

CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available

CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available

CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available

CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Available MD-TF1 Available

CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Available NY-TF1 Available

CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Conditional PA-TF1 Available

CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Conditional VA-TF1 Available

CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Available VA-TF2 Available

WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available

UT-TF1 Available

= Assigned/Deployed = Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable

37

Region RRCC Regional Watch Center I Not Activated Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Not Activated 24/7

III Not Activated 24/7

IV Not Activated 24/7

V Not Activated 24/7

VI Not Activated Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Not Activated 24/7

VIII Not Activated Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Not Activated 24/7

X Not Activated Bothell MOC (24/7)

RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status

= Not Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable = Available/Mission Capable

38

National Team Status

Team/Status Current Location Remarks

National Watch Center Washington, DC Enhanced Watch (Day only)

NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated

HLT Miami, FL Activated

DEST Washington, DC Not Activated

Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable

40