i

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(INTENSE OBSERVATION PERIOD : 05 -08 NOV 2010)

REPORT BY FIELD OPERATIONAL CENTRE

by Y.E.A.RAJ, S.BALACHANDRAN,

RM.A.N.RAMANATHAN, B.GEETHA, K.RAMESH, N.SELVAM

M.V.GUHAN & D.RAJAN BABU

Cyclone Warning & Research Centre

Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai

ii

PREFACE

India, having an extensive coastline is subjected to the fury of landfalling Tropical

Cyclones (TC) that form over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the pre-monsoon months of

April-May and the Northeast monsoon season of October-December, which is the chief cyclone

season over the NIO. As such, prediction of TC genesis, movement and intensity is a very

important mandate of India Meteorological Department (IMD). With the ushering in of modern

observing systems and remote sensing techniques through satellites, huge volumes of

meteorological data over the erstwhile data sparse oceanic areas are now available. Assimilation

of such data into the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have improved TC

forecasting leaps and bounds in the developed countries in the recent decades. Now, India is also

striving hard to collect crucial data from TC fields and assimilate them in NWP models to

improve its forecasts on TC genesis, movement, intensity and landfall.

As an outcome of Indo-US atmospheric science programme, a scientific plan namely

Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) (Cyclone) – was designed with key scientific objectives

of demonstrating the ability of the NWP models to predict cyclone track, intensity and landfall

over the Bay of Bengal using enhanced observation including the measurements from dropsonde

over the periphery of the cyclone and to assess the accuracy limits of the forecasting aspects

related to cyclone. The FDP is a multi institutional programme involving many related scientific

institutions. It is conducted in three phases - Pre-Pilot phase (15 October – 30 November, 2008),

Pilot phase – (15 October – 30 November, 2009) and Field Phase (15 October – November,

2010-2011).

For implementation of this programme, National Operational Centre (NOC) was

established at Northern Hemispheric Analysis Centre (NHAC), IMD New Delhi which is

responsible for entire coordination and declaration of Intense Observation Periods (IOPs). Also,

the Cyclone Warning & Research Centre, functioning at RMC Chennai, was made as Field

Operational Centre (FOC) to establish links with FDP partners, to notify IOP phases to field

iii

stations and other FDP partners, to coordinate and update the status of observation and to collect

and transmit informations received from the field stations and FDP partners to the NOC.

Being a centre dedicated for studies on TCs, CWRC, RMC Chennai is aptly functioning

as the FOC and is actively involved in coordinating with the field stations, including making

arrangments for taking special GPS sonde ascents and setting onboard equipments in the Sagar

Kanya Cruise during IOPs. During the pre-pilot and pilot phases of the programme, the FOC,

Chennai archived all raw data collected, including special observations taken during IOPs, in a

CD, and sent to the NOC. Now, for the field phase of the programme (15 October – 30

November 2010), during which one IOP was observed in connection with formation and

movement of Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Jal’ over the Bay of Bengal during 05-08 November 2010,

this centre is bringing out a Weather Summary of observations and analysis on a regional scale,

which, I hope, would be immensely useful to the various FDP research groups.

iv

Acknowledgements

CWRC, RMC Chennai is grateful to IMD, HQ for designating it as the FOC for the FDP

programme.

The Weather Summary of FDP, IOP, 05-08 November 2010 is an outcome of efforts of

many personnel involved in generating crucial data for prosecuting advanced studies on tropical

cyclones. Special observations were taken during the cyclone period by all participating

institutions, IMD field stations in coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh and Sagar Kanya

Cruise members.

Our deep felt thanks to our FDP partners Indian Space Research Organisation, National

Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, INS Rajali, Arakkonam for their valuable

observations during the IOP.

The FOC, Chennai also acknowledges the crucial role played by the IMD observers at the

field stations for taking special hourly observations continuously for three days in bad weather

conditions despite manpower shortage. Our special thanks are due to those who went on tour at

short notice to cover special GPS sonde ascents at designated field stations.

Our thanks are also due to AMO, ACWC, INSAT-AWS, RS/RW and RMSU, RMC

Chennai for their support throughout the programme.

v

Contents

Chapter Details Page No.

1 Introduction 1

2 Field Operational Centre 2

3 Data sources and Analysis 2

4 Large Scale synoptic features during the IOP, 05-08 Nov 2010 3

5 Description of Weather Summary 4

5.1 Life history of the SCS Jal 4

5.2 Observations and analysis 5

5.2.1 Surface synoptic observations and analysis 5

5.2.2 Upper air observations and Tephigram analysis 6

5.2.3 Satellite products 6

5.2.4 NWP products 7

5.2.5 AWS data 8

6 Conclusions 8

vi

List of Tables

Table No. Details Page No.

TABLE 1a List of Surface coastal observatories where hourly special

observations were taken

10

TABLE 1b Locations of Sagar Kanya cruise during different instances of IOP

period and its distance from the TC centre

11

TABLE 2

Chief rainfall amounts recorded in RMC Chennai region at 03

UTC of 05-08 Nov 2010

12

TABLE 3 Thermodynamic parameters CAPE, CINE and TPWC during 05-

08 November 2010 / 00 UTC

18

vii

List of figures

Fig. No. Details Page No.

Fig.1 Locations of stations / Sagar Kanya cruise were special observations were

taken

19

Fig.2 IMD’s observed track of SCS ‘Jal’ 20

Fig.3(a-d) Surface Synoptic analysis charts of 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 21-22

Fig.4(a-d) 24 hr pressure departures during05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 23

Fig.5(a-d) Surface Humidity during 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 24

Fig.6(a-d) 24 hr accumulated precipitation recorded during 05-08 November 2010 / 03

UTC

25

Fig.7(a-d) Plots of surface synoptic observations (3 hourly) at selected stations and in

Sagar Kanya cruise (6 hourly) during 05-08 November 2010

26-29

Fig.8(a-d) Mean upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 & 200 hPa levels during 05-08

November 2010

30-33

Fig.9(a-d)

(i-iii)

Tephigrams of Karaikal, Chennai(MBK) and Machilipatnam during 00 UTC

of 05-08 November 2010

34-37

Fig.10(a-f) KALPANA-1 OLR (W/m2) for 05-08/00 UTC and 07/06&12 UTC of Nov

2010

38-39

Fig.11 (a-f) KALPANA – 1, Cloud Top Temperature (Below -40˚C) during 05-08/00

UTC and 07/06&12 UTC Nov 2010

40-42

Fig.12(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis based on 05-08/00 UTC 43-46

Fig.13(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai wind forecasts over Chennai during 05-08 Nov

2010

47-48

Fig.14(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai track forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’

49-50

Fig.15(a&b) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai Intensity forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’

51

Fig.16 Plot of AWS observations on 07th/ 16UTC 52

viii

1

1. Introduction

The Northeast monsoon season of October to December (OND) is the chief cyclone

season over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) even though Tropical Cyclones (TCs) do form during

the pre-monsoon months of April-May. On an average, every year, during OND, about 5

depressions form over the NIO out of which, 2 to 3 reach the intensity of Cyclonic Storm (wind

speed > 33 knots) & above and 1 to 2 reach the intensity of SCS (wind speed > 64 knots) &

above. India, having an extensive coast line, is vulnerable to destructive effects of the

landfalling TCs of NIO. Time and again, some of the coastal areas, especially in the eastern

coast, have been subjected to the fury of very severe cyclonic storms, in the form of gale force

winds, torrential rains and storm surge. There have been extensive loss of life and property due

to the devastating effects of the landfalling TCs.

Forecasting the formation, movement and coastal crossing of TCs, well in advance of

landfall is of utmost importance in order to take necessary disaster mitigatory measures. India

Meteorological Department (IMD) is vested with the mandate of forecasting the formation,

movement and coastal crossing of TCs that form over the NIO. A lot of research and

developmental activities are undertaken by IMD to improve the accuracy and precision of its TC

forecasts. One such recent effort, is the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) (Cyclone), a Bay

of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiment planned as an outcome of Indo-US Atmospheric Science

Programme.

The key scientific objective of the FDP(Cyclone) is to demonstrate the ability of

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to predict the track, intensity and landfall point of

Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal using enhanced observations including measurements

from dropsonde over the periphery of the TC and to assess the accuracy limits of the forecasting

aspects related to TCs. Various research groups have been encouraged to conduct focused

research works in the area of TC forecasting using all the special observational data collected

during the experiments.

The FDP (Cyclone) is a multi-institutional programme involving all related scientific

organisations. The National Operational Centre (NOC) established at the Northern Hemispheric

Analysis Centre (NHAC), India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi is responsible for

2

entire coordination of the programme and declaration of Intense Observation Periods (IOPs)

during the experiment. A pre-pilot phase of the experiment was conducted during 15 October to

30 November, 2008 (FDP 2008) and a pilot phase of the programme during 15 October to 30

November, 2009 (FDP 2009). A Field phase of the experiment was conducted during 15 October

to 30 November 2010 (FDP 2010).

2. Field Operational Centre

The Cyclone Warning & Research Centre (CWRC) functioning at Regional

Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai is entrusted the role of Field Operational Centre (FOC)

for the FDP (Cyclone) programme. The role of FOC is to establish links with FDP partners, to

notify IOP phases to FDP partners / field units, to coordinate and update the status of

observations and to collect and transmit data from FDP partners and field units. The data

collected during 2008 and 2009 have been archived and sent to NOC, IMD, New Delhi for

sharing with research groups.

During FDP 2010, one IOP was declared during 05/00 UTC – 08/00 UTC of November

2010 in connection with the formation and movement of Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) ‘Jal’ and

special observations were taken at IMD’s coastal stations of Tamil Nadu / Andhra Pradesh, on

board Sagar Kanya Cruise in the sea and by other participating scientific institutions such as

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Indian Naval Service (INS, Rajali, Arakkonam,

Tamil Nadu) and National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki, Tirupati, ISRO.

The data collected are archived for use by the research groups as was done during FDP 2008 and

2009. As the SCS, ‘Jal’ made landfall over North Tamil Nadu – South Andhra Pradesh coast,

north of Chennai, in addition to the raw data archives, a summary of the observational analysis

and NWP forecast products generated at RMC Chennai during the IOP, 05-08 November 2010,

would also prove to be quite useful to the research community. A scientific report on the IOP

during 05-08 November 2010, on regional scale, namely, ‘Forecast Demonstration Project

(Cyclone)- Weather Summary, Intense Observation Period, 05-08 Nov 2010’ is prepared for

the benefit of the researchers on TCs over NIO.

3

3. Data sources and Analysis

The data sources and analysis products used for preparation of this report are as follows:

(i) Surface and upper air observations taken at the IMD’s coastal stations of Tamil Nadu and

Andhra Pradesh

(ii) Surface and upper air observations taken on board Sagar Kanya cruise

(iii) Satellite imageries, NWP products and conventional observational products and analysis

generated using Synergie Forecasting Tool installed at RMC Chennai

(iv) WRF model products generated at RMC Chennai using HPC

(v) AWS data

(vi) ISRO - GPS sonde ascents taken at Calingapatnam, Bapatla, INS Rajali, Arakkonam and

NARL, Gadanki, Tirupati.

4. Large Scale synoptic features during the IOP, 05-08 November 2010

During the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from Indian region, the Inter Tropical

Convergence Zone (ITCZ) starts moving southward. Simultaneously, the vast land areas of

Siberian region undergoes fast radiative cooling and establishes a surface pressure gradient

between the cold, high pressure region over Siberia and relatively warm NIO. Outflow from the

Siberian high causes dramatic reversal of low level winds over the peninsular India from

southwesterlies to northeasterlies during mid-October and onset of northeast monsoon occurs

during the third week of October. When the ITCZ passes over the warm NIO, environment

becomes conducive for cyclogenesis and so the northeast monsoon season of October to

December (OND) is the chief cyclone season for NIO. Generally, during OND, Tropical

cyclones form over the Bay of Bengal and generally move northwestwards towards Andhra

Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts but sometimes they recurve towards West Bengal, Bangladesh

and Arakan coasts.

4

During the lone IOP of 2010 (05-08 November 2010), a depression had formed over

Southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0300 UTC of 04th November 2010 near latitude

8.5 0 N and longitude 91.0 0 E at about 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai. As the system

showed likelihood of further intensification and landfall over the east coast of India , an IOP was

declared from 05th

November 00 UTC. The system intensified into SCS on 06th

/ 00 UTC and

subsequently moving northwestward weakened into a deep depression before crossing coast

north of Chennai on 07th around 18-19 UTC. IOP was continued till 08

th November, 00 UTC.

Special hourly coastal surface observations, 6 hourly upper air observations (including ISRO-

GPS sonde observations) at IMD stations in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, surface and upper

air observations onboard Sagar Kanya Cruise, upper air observations by other participating

institutions - INS Rajali, Arakkonam and NARL, Gadanki, Tirupati were taken during the IOP.

Table 1a presents the list of coastal observatories in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh that took

special hourly observations during the said IOP. In Table 1b, locations of the Sagar Kanya

cruise and its distance from the TC centre during different instances of the IOP period are

presented. Fig.1 depicts the actual locations were these special observations were taken during

the IOP.

5. Description of Weather Summary

5.1 Life history of the SCS Jal

A depression formed over the West Pacific Ocean on 31st October 2010 in association

with an active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It moved west-northwestwards across

southern Thailand and emerged as a low pressure area over the south Andaman Sea on 2nd

November. It continued to move west-northwestwards and concentrated into a Depression at

0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 over southeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 8.0 deg. N and 92.0

deg. E. It intensified into a Deep Depression in the early morning of 5th November and into a

Cyclonic Storm ‘JAL’ at 1130 hrs IST of the same day with centre near lat. 9.00N and long.

5

87.50E, about 900 km east-southeast of Chennai. The cyclonic storm ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay

of Bengal continued to move west-northwestwards and intensified further into a severe cyclonic

storm in the early hours of 6th November. However as the severe cyclonic storm, JAL moved to

the southwest Bay of Bengal closer to India coast, it entered into a region of lower ocean thermal

energy and moderate to high vertical wind shear in association with the strong easterlies in the

upper tropospheric level. The high wind shear led to westward shearing of the convective clouds

form the system centre and lower Ocean thermal energy led to unsustainability of convection

over the region. Due to these two factors, the severe cyclonic storm, JAL weakened into a

cyclonic storm at 1130 hrs IST of 7th November 2010 over southwest Bay of Bengal with centre

near lat.12.50N and long. 82.50E, about 250 km east-southeast of Chennai. It weakened further

into a deep depression and crossed north Tamilnadu – south Andhra Pradesh coast, close to the

north of Chennai near 13.30N and 80.30E) around 2130 hrs IST of 07th November 2010. It

continued to move west-northwestwards, further weakened into a depression at 0830 hrs IST and

into a well marked low pressure area over Rayalaseema and adjoining south interior Karnataka at

1130 hrs IST of today, the 8th November 2010. It emerged into the east central Arabian Sea on

9th November as a low pressure area and then moved initially northwestwards towards

Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coast during 9-11th November. Thereafter it moved

northeastwards across Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan and became less marked on

12th November 2010. The observed track of the SCS Jal is presented in Fig.2.

Salient features

• Weakened into a deep depression over the sea before the landfall.

• The convective clouds were sheared to the west to a large extent on the date of landfall

(7th November 2010). As a result, more rainfall occurred over the interior parts than the coastal

regions.

5.2 Observations and analysis

The chief synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic features over the NIO during the IOP,

05-08 November 2010 are summarised below based on synoptic analysis (including Synergie

6

products), satellite imageries and products and NWP (WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai) analysis and

forecasts for the period 05-08 / 00 UTC. The chief rainfall amounts realised during the period

05-08 November 2010 are presented in Table 2.

5.2.1 Surface synoptic observations and analysis

Fig.3(a-d) present synoptic analysis / plots of surface observations with superimposed satellite

Kalpana (Infra-red) imageries at 00 UTC of 05th, 06

th, 07

th and 08

th November 2010.

Fig.4(a-d) present the 24 hour pressure departure plots.

Fig.5(a-d) and Fig.6(a-d) give the surface humidity and 24 hour accumulated precipitation plots

of 05th

, 06th, 07

th and 08

th November 2010 based on 00 UTC and 0300 UTC respectively.

In Fig.7(a-d) Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Wind speed (in knots) and Wind direction

recorded at three hourly interval at five surface coastal observatories [Chennai (near to the

landfall point) Cuddalore and Karaikal (south of landfall point), Nellore and Ongole (north of

landfall point)] and on board Sagar Kanya cruise during 05-08 November 2010 are presented.

The following aspects are noted:

The lowest 24 hour pressure fall was observed at 07/00 UTC with 3-6 hPa pressure fall

along CTN and CAP during the last 24 hours. On 8th

/00 UTC, positive 24 hour pressure

tendency was seen along the CTN and CAP. The interior regions and the west coast showed fall

in pressure during the last 24 hours ending 08/00 UTC. The surface humidity reduced from 95-

100% on 06/00 UTC to 80-100% along north CTN and south CAP on 07/00 UTC. Sagar Kanya

cruise has recorded 15-25 knots wind at about 640-1220 km from the TC centre during the

period 05th/00 to 08

th/00 UTC. A lowest pressure of 1006.2 hPa was recorded at about 854 km

from the TC centre on 06th/12 UTC.

5.2.2 Upper air observations and Tephigram analysis

Upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels during 05-08 November 2010 / 00

UTC are presented in Fig.8(a-d). Tephigrams plotted for 00 UTC observations taken at Karaikal,

7

Chennai (Minambakkam) and Machilipatnam during the above IOP are given in Fig.9(a-d)(i-iii).

Table 3 presents the values of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective

Inhibitive Energy (CINE) and Total Precipitable Water Content (TPWC) over these stations at

00 UTC from 05th

to 08th. It can be seen that CAPE was highest over Machilipatnam (2331

J/Kg) on 05/00UTC, over Karaikal on 06/00 & 07/00 UTC (2016 J/Kg & 1963 J/Kg

respectively). CAPE was practically nil over all the three places on 08/00 UTC. The highest

value of CAPE over Karaikal decreased slightly from 2016 J/Kg on 06/00 UTC to 1963 J/Kg on

07/00 UTC. The CINE was lowest over Machilipatnam on 05/00 UTC (-201 J/Kg). Thereafter,

it was lowest over Karaikal on 06/00 & 07/00 UTC. It was nil over all the three stations on 08/00

UTC. The lowest CINE of -145 J/kg over Karaikal on 06/00 UTC increased to -34 J/Kg on 07/00

UTC. The Total Precipitable Water Content (TPWC) was highest over Machilipatnam on 05/00

UTC (63.2 mm), 07/00 UTC (68.5 mm) and 08/00 UTC (85.3 mm). On 06/00 UTC, it was

highest over Karaikal at 63.3 mm.

5.2.3 Satellite products

Kalpana satellite products - Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Cloud Top

Temperatures (CTT) (below -40ºC) for the above period are presented in Figs.10(a-f) & 11(a-f)

respectively.

The morphology of CTTs indicates more organised and axi-symmetric development of

deep convection over southern quadrants of the system on 06/00UTC as compared to 05/00UTC.

The development of deep convection extends further to northern quadrants on 07/00UTC. The

areal coverage of deep convection (-80˚C or less) increased further on 7th

/00UTC. The slackened

gradient of CTT on western and southern sectors as compared to eastern and northern sectors

indicate presence of more deep clouds over western and southern sectors. At 06 UTC of 7th, the

areal coverage of the most deep convective clouds (-80˚C or less) decreased considerably. The

gradient of CTT in the eastern sector is stronger indicating lesser deep convection in this region.

On the western sector where deep convective clouds are present, there is a slight disorganistion

of the clouds in the outer most regions with CTT between -50 and -40˚C. At 12 UTC of 07th,

8

there is total disorganisation of the developed CTT pattern. The lowest CTT of -60˚C is present

over a very small area indicating that the convective clouds are becoming shallower.

The OLR pattern over the Bay region indicates an expansion in areal extent of the lowest

OLR of less than 100 W/m2 and a gradual westward shift from 05

th to 07

th / 00 UTC. On 07

th/00

UTC, the lowest OLR contour is partly over the CTN and partly off the coast, over the sea. At

06 UTC of 07th

, the lowest OLR (<100W/m2) has decreased considerably in areal extent and is

fully over the land (Tamil Nadu). At 12 UTC of 07th, the lowest OLR values seen are 100-150

W/m2 and not 100 W/m

2. These lowest OLR values are found over north interior Tamil Nadu,

south interior Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka. On 08th

/00 UTC, low OLR values of

150-200 W/m2 are seen over north coastal Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra and Orissa.

5.2.4 NWP products

The WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis plots of MSLP, winds at 850, 500 & 200 hPa

levels, vertical wind shear (between 850-200 hPa levels) and moisture convergence at 850 hPa

level are presented in Fig.12(a-d). The WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai 24 hr forecast of winds over

Chennai are presented in Fig.13(a-d). RMC Chennai, HPC- WRF, track and intensity predictions

are presented in Fig.14(a-d) and 15(a&b) respectively. Upper air wind forecasts for Chennai,

based on 07th/00 UTC indicates veering of winds at low levels from northerly to southerly on

7th/10-11 UTC. WRF track forecast based on 05

th / 00 UTC indicates landfall over 13.6˚N

latitude north of Chennai around 06 UTC of 7th

. The model forecasts a lowest central pressure of

966.9 hPa over 81.3˚E and 12.3˚N on 6th, 23 UTC and gradual weakening of the system

thereafter.

5.2.5 AWS data

The AWS at Ennore port located nearly 20 km north of Chennai city provided some

crucial and valuable data input during the coastal crossing of TC JAL north of chennai. The TC

Jal weakened considerably before crossing the coast, the weakening mainly due to shearing. The

cloud mass associated with the system detatched from the surface vortex and drifted rapidly

9

westwards. However, the low level circulation remained in the sea off the coast. DWR imageries

indicated a weak vortex. The AWS at Ennore port provided the following valuable data:

1. The wind speed at 0830 hrs & 0930 hrs IST on 07th is northwesterly 33 knots clearly showing

that the system maintained near CS intensity on 7th

morning.

2.The lowest pressure of 996.2 hpa was recorded at 1530 hrs a fall of 13.2 hpa compared to the

pressure recorded at 0930 hrs of 6th.

3. From 1630 hrs of 7th

, the surface wind started steadily backing up, the directions during the

subsequent hours are 020, 000, 330, 290, 230, 210, 190, 170 deg, indicating time of crossing at

nearly 2130 hrs.

A plot of Ennore AWS data recorded at 16 UTC (2130 hrs IST) is presented in Fig.16.

6. Conclusions

The FDP(Cyclones) field phase – 2010 was conducted during 15 October to 30

November 2010. During this period, one intense observation period was declared three days

from 05th/00 UTC to 08

th/00 UTC of November 2010 in connection with formation and

movement of SCS ‘Jal’ in the Bay of Bengal. Though the system attained a maximum intensity

of SCS, it crossed North Tamil Nadu coast (close to North Chennai) as a Deep Depression on

07th

November 2010 around 1600 UTC (2130 hrs IST). IMD’s coastal observatories and other

sister organisations participating in the experiment took special observations during this period.

Special observations were also taken by onboard Sagar Kanya cruise. Observations recorded and

basic analysis carried out during the period are presented in this Weather Summary. Surface

synoptic observations indicated lowest 24 hour pressure fall at 07/00 UTC with 3-6 hPa pressure

fall along CTN and CAP in the last 24 hours. The surface humidity reduced from 95-100% on

06/00 UTC to 80-100% along north CTN and south CAP on 07/00 UTC. Sagar Kanya cruise has

recorded a lowest pressure of 1006.2 hPa at about 854 km from the TC centre on 06th/12 UTC.

Satellite based Cloud Top Temperature analysis indicated a considerable decrease in the areal

coverage of the most deep convective clouds (CTT ≤ -80˚C) at 06 UTC of 7th

. The lowest OLR

(<100W/m2) decreased considerably in areal extent at 06 UTC of 7

th and is seen fully over the

10

land (Tamil Nadu). Track predictions based on WRF model (with 00UTC of 05th

and 06th

as

initial conditions) indicated weakening of the system after 06th

/21 UTC and coastal crossing

between 13-14˚N around 00-06 UTC of 07th. Ennore (North of Chennai) AWS data indicated

coastal crossing of the system at 1600 UTC (2130 hrs IST). This Weather Summary would serve

as a concise reference material on observational aspects for research works related to the TC

‘Jal’.

11

TABLE 1a

List of Surface coastal observatories where hourly special observations were taken

S.No Station Station ID

1 Kalingapatnam 43105

2 Visakhapatnam 43149

3 Kakinada 43189

4 Tuni 43147

5 Kavali 43243

6 Nidadavole 43184

7 Narasapur 43187

8 Gannavaram 43181

9 Machilipattinam 43185

10 Bapatla 43220

11 Ongole 43221

12 Nellore 43245

13 Chennai 43279

14 Puducherry 43331

15 Cuddalore 43329

16 Karaikal 43346

17 Nagapattinam 43347

18 Vedaranyam 43349

19 Adirampattinam 43348

20 Tondi 43361

21 Pambam 43363

22 Thoothukudi [Tuticorin] 43379

23 Palayamkottai 43376

24 Kanniyakumari 43377

12

TABLE 1b

Locations of Sagar Kanya cruise during different instances of IOP period and its distance

from the TC centre

Date Time

(UTC)

Position of Sagar Kanya

(i)

Position of TC centre

(ii)

Distance

between

(i) & (ii)

(km) Lat (˚) Lon (˚) Lat (˚) Lon (˚)

05.11.2010 00 14.6 90.0 9.0 88.5 643

05.11.2010 06 14.9 90.0 9.0 87.5 710

05.11.2010 18 15.1 90.0 10.0 86.5 682

06.11.2010 00 15.5 89.9 10.0 85.5 775

06.11.2010 06 16.0 89.6 10.5 85.5 755

06.11.2010 12 16.8 89.7 11.0 84.5 854

06.11.2010 18 17.0 89.6 11.0 84.0 899

07.11.2010 00 17.7 89.5 11.5 83.5 944

07.11.2010 06 18.0 89.5 12.5 82.5 968

07.11.2010 12 18.0 89.5 13.0 81.0 1066

07.11.2010 18 18.0 89.6 13.5 80.0 1142

08.11.2010 00 18.0 89.7 14.0 79.0 1226

13

TABLE 2

Chief rainfall amounts recorded in RMC Chennai region at 03 UTC of 05-08 Nov 2010

Date / rainfall

category

Realised rainfall amount in cm

05 Nov 2010

Very heavy - Heavy

Avinashi (Tiruppur dt) 14, Srirangapatnam (Mandya dt) 11, Krishnarajansagara

(Mandya dt) 10 and Ambasanudram (Tirunelveli dt) 9.

Other chief

amounts of

rainfall

Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Sattur and Watrap (both Virudhunagar dt) 6 each,

Hirekerur (Haveri dt), Sakleshpura (Hassan dt), Harangi (Kodagu dt), T.

Narsipura (Mysore dt), Shenkottai (Tirunelveli dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt),

Pochampalli (Krishnagiri dt) and Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt) 5 each,

Venkatapuram (Khammam dt), Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Subramanya

(Dakshina Kannada dt), Balehonnur (Chickmagalur dt), N. R. Pura

(Chickmagalur dt), Arkalgud (Hassan dt), Madikeri, Yercaud and

Kamatchipuram (Dindugal dt) 4 each, Machilipatnam, Kavali, Tenali (Guntur dt),

Mahabubabad (Warangal dt), Gooty (Ananthapur dt), Thalasserry (Kannur dt),

Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt), Yellapura (Uttara Kannada dt), Jayapura and

Kottigehera, Sringeri (all Chickmagalur dt), Kushalnagar and Hosanagar (both

Shimoga dt), Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt), Chengam,

Polur and Sathanur Dam (all Tiruvannamalai dt), Palacode and Marandahalli

(both Dharmapuri dt), Udumalpet and Kangeyam (both Tiruppur dt),

Satyamangalam (Erode dt), Devala (Nilgiris dt), Sholavandan (Madurai dt),

Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar dt), Virudhunagar and Palani (Dindugal dt) 3 each,

Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Kottur (Udupi dt), Gokak (Belgaum dt), Manvi

(Raichur dt), Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt), Mandya, Holalur (Shimoga dt),

Kollengode and Pattambi (both Palakkad dt), Kochi airport, Vinjamur, Udayagiri

and Rapur (all Nellore dt), Hyderabad airport, Alampur (Mahabubnagar dt),

Kuppam, Kalakada and Srikalahasthi (all Chittoor dt), Cuddapah, Porumamilla

(Cuddapah dt), Alur (Kurnool dt), Chilamattur (Ananthapur dt), Parangipettai,

Adiramapattinam, Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt), Muthupet (Thiruvarur dt),

Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Viralimalai (Pudukottai dt), Rameshwaram

(Ramanathapuram dt), Radhapuram (Tirunelveli dt), Penugondapuram, Barur,

Hosur and Denkanikottai (all Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Coimbatore airport,

Bhavanisagar and Thalavadi (both Erode dt), Coonoor, Naduvattam (Nilgiris dt),

Thuraiyur (Tiruchirapalli dt), Vadipatti (Madurai dt), Gadalur and

Uthamapalayam (both Theni dt), Tirupathur (Sivagangai dt), Sivakasi,

Srivilliputhur and Tiruchuzhi (all Virudhunagar dt) 2 each and Kannur, Chittur

(Palakkad dt), CIAL Kochi, Mancompu and Chengannur (both Alapuzha dt),

Mani and Mudibidre (both Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala (Udupi dt),

Tavaragere (Koppal dt), Hoskore (Bangalore Rural dt), Bangalore, Bangalore

14

airport, Begur, M. M. Hills and Yellandur (all Chamrajnagar dt), Gauribidanur

(Chikkaballapura dt), Lakkavalli (Chikmagalur dt), Holenarsipur and

Sravanabelagola (both Hassan dt), Somwarpet, Ammathy and Madapura (all

Kodagu dt), Bangarpet (Kolar dt), Mysore, Nanjangud (Mysore dt), Nellore,

Atmakur and Seetharampuram (both Nellore dt), Khammam, Yellandu

(Khammam dt), Ramayampet (Medak dt), Bhongir (Nalgonda dt), Kanekal,

Tadipatri, Kalyandurg and Penukonda (all Ananthapur dt), Thambalapalle

(Chittoor dt), Muddanur and Vempalli (both Cuddapah dt), Kodaikanal,

Poonamalle, Ponneri, Poondi and Thamaraipakkam (all Thiruvallur dt),

Chidambaram and Thozhudur (both Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt),

Grand Anaicut, Madukkur and Peravurani (all Thanjavur dt), Kodavasal,

Needamangalam and Valangaiman (all Tiruvarur dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam

dt), Nagapattinam, Vedaranyam, Tirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Mudukulathur

(Ramanathapuram dt), Pamban, Ayikudi and Thenkasi (both Tirunelveli dt),

Vilathikulam (Tuticorin dt), Gudalur Bazaar, Kundha Bridge and Ketti (all

Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Melur (Madurai dt), Periyar Dam (Theni dt),

Dindigul, Vedasandur (Dindigul dt), Tiruvannamalai, Melalathur (Vellore dt),

Tirupattur, Soolagiri, Thali and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Kumarapalayam,

Rasipuram and Sendamangalam (all Namakkal dt), Attur and Vazhapadi (both

Salem dt) 1 each.

06 Nov 2010

Very heavy - Heavy

Piravom (Ernakulam dt) 13, Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt) 12, Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt) 11, Napoklu (Kodagu dt), Madurai airport and Virudhunagar 9 each,

Ammathy and Virajpet (both Kodagu dt), Tirumangalam (Madurai dt) 8 each and

Mannarkkad (Palakkad dt), Begur (Chamrajnagar dt), Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt), Hunsur, Nanjangud and Surgur (all Mysore dt), Thalavadi (Erode dt) and Chittampatti

(Madurai dt) 7 each.

Other chief amounts of

rainfall

Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Gerusoppa (Uttara Kannada dt), Alur (Hassan dt),

Manaparai (Tiruchirapalli dt), Aruppukottai and Kovilankulam 6 each,

Balehonnur and Kammardi (both Chikmagalur dt), Chengannur (Alapuzha dt),

Thodupuzha (Idukki dt), Chinnakallar (Coimbatore dt) and Valparai 5 each, Mani

(Dakshina Kannada dt), Chamrajnagar, Holenarsipur (Hassan dt), Harangi

(Kodagu dt), Ambalavayal (Wayanad dt), Aluwa (Ernakulam dt), CIAL Kochi,

Aryankavu (Kollam dt), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram dt), Tondi, Attur and Mettur

Dam (both Salem dt), Coimbatore airport, Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt), Devala and

Gudalur Bazaar (both Nilgiris dt), Karur Paramathi, Melur and Mettupatti (both

Madurai dt) and Nilakottai (Dindigul dt) 4 each and Kochi airport, Vadakara

(Kozhikode dt), Irinjalakuda, Chalakudy and Enamackal (all Thrissur dt),

Alapuzha, Kozha (Kottayam dt), Punalur, Tiruvananthapuram, Nedumangad

(Tiruvananthapuram dt), Karwar, Honnali (Davanagere dt), Madapura and

Somwarpet (both Kodagu dt), Madikeri, Mysore, Peravurani and Tiruvaiyaru

(both Thanjavur dt), Vedaranyam, Illuppur and Gandarvakottai (both Pudukottai

dt), Kadaladi and Mudukulathur (both Ramanathapuram dt), Shengottai

15

(Tirunelveli dt), Coimbatore, Bhavanisagar and Sathyamangalam (both Erode dt),

Kangeyam (Tiruppur dt), Panchapatti (Karur dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt),

Lalgudi (Tiruchirapalli dt), Usilampatti and Vadipatti (both Madurai dt), Gudalur

(Theni dt), Sivagangai, Sattur and Watrap (both Virudhunagar dt) and Chatrapatti

(Dindigul dt) 3 each, Taliparamba (Kannur dt), Ottapalem (Palakkad dt),

Thrissur, Vellanikara, Munnar (Idukki dt), Idukki, Tiruvananthapuram airport,

Neyyatinkara (Tiruvananthapuram dt), Bandipura and Yellandur (both

Chamrajnagar dt), Kalasa (Chikmagalur dt), Davanagere, Arkulgud,

Sakleshpura, Arsikere and C. R. Patna (all Hassan dt), Linganamakki,

Shikaripura and Thalaguppa (all Shimoga dt), Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt),

Sattenapalli (Guntur dt), Chillamattur (Ananthapur dt), Karaikal, Grand Anaicut

and Madukkur (both Thanjavur dt), Tiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur dt), Tiruvarur,

Nagapattinam, Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Manamelkudi, Tiruvadanai

(Ramanathapuram dt), Srivaikuntam (Tuticorin dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt),

Hogenakkal and Pennagaram (both Dharmapuri dt), Barur and Thali (both

Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur, Rasipuram, Sendamangalam and Tiruchengode

(all Namakkal dt), Thammampatti (Salem dt), Yercaud, Sulur (Coimbatore dt),

Kodumudi (Erode dt), Coonoor, Ketti, Kothagiri and Naduvattam (all Nilgiris dt),

Uthagamandalam, Mayanur (Karur dt), Perambalur, Thathiengarpet

(Tiruchirapalli dt), Sholavandhan (Madurai dt), Manamadurai, Tirupathur and

Tiruppuvanam (all Sivagangai dt) and Palani (Dindigul dt) 2 each and Mangalore

airport, Mudibidre and Mulki (both Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala (Udupi dt),

Udupi, Belgaum airport, Basavakalyan (Bidar dt), Saidapur (Gulburga dt),

Hangal (Haveri dt), Ajjampura and Tarikere (both Chikmagalur dt), Channagiri

(Davanagere dt), Kushalnagara (Kodagu dt), K. R. Pet and Srirangapattinam

(both Mandya dt), Agumbe, Badravathi and Thyagarthi (both Shimoga dt), Y. N.

Hoskote (Tumkur dt), Macherla (Guntur dt), Tirupathi airport, Hindupur

(Ananthapur dt), Badvel and Prodattur (both Cuddapah dt), Tambaram,

Chembarambakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Adiramapattinam, Orathanadu, Pattukottai,

Thiruvidaimarudhur and Vallam (all Thanjavur dt), Muthupet and Nannilam

(both Tiruvarur dt), Tirumayam and Viralimalai (both Pudukottai dt),

Ramanathapuram, Cheranmadevi and Nanguneri (both Tirunelveli dt),

Maniyatchi (Tuticorin dt), Boothapandy and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt),

Anjatty and Soolagiri (both Krishnagiri dt), Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri dt),

Kumarapalayam (Namakkal dt), Namakkal, Mettupalayam (Coimbatore dt),

Tiruppur, Mulanur (Tiruppur dt), Bhavani and Gobichettipalayam (both Erode

dt), Erode, Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Aravakurichi and Thogamalai (both

Karur dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondan (Ariyalur dt), Padallur (Perambalur dt),

Pullambadi and Thuraiyur (both Tiruchirapalli dt), Peraiyur (Madurai dt), Periyar

Dam and Uthamapalayam (both Theni dt), Theni, Devakottai, Ilayangudi and

Karaikudi (all Sivagangai dt), Rajapalayam, Sivakasi and Tiruchuzhi (all

Virudhunagar dt), Dindigul, Kodaikanal, Natham (Dindigul dt), Irikkur (Kannur

dt), Hosdurg and Kudulu (both Kasargod dt), Kozhikode, Quilandy (Kozhikode

dt), Vythiri (Waynad dt), Pattambi (Palakkad dt), Perumbavur (Ernakulam dt),

Mavelikara (Alapuzha dt), Kottayam, Vaikom and Kumarakom (both Kottayam

16

dt) and Minicoy 1 each.

07 Nov 2010

Very heavy -

Heavy ----

Other chief

amounts of

rainfall

Periyakulam and Kakinada 4 each , Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Yellapur

(Uttara Kannada dt), Kalghatgi (Darward dt), Cuddalore and Puducherry Airport

3 each, Sulurpet (Nellore dt), Koderu (West Godavari dt), Mannarkad (Palakkad

dt), Kamardi, Kottigehra and Sringeri (all Chickmagalur dt), Agumbe, Anna

university and DGP office (both Chennai dt), Chennai Airport, Chennai, Cheyyur

and Mahabalipuram (both Kancheepuram dt), and Parangipettai (Cuddalore dt) 2

each and Bheemavaram and Tanuku (both West Godavari dt), Narasapur,

Peddapuram and Prathipadu (both East Godavari dt), Tuni, Tada (Nellore dt),

Machilipatnam, Kaikalur (Krishna dt), Satyavedu and Srikalahasthi (both

Chittoor dt), Tirupathi Airport, Minicoy, Karkala , Kundapur and Kota (all Udupi

dt), Bellati (Gadag dt), Ammathy (Kodagu dt), Thyagarathi (Shimoga dt),

Maduranthagam , Sriperumbudur , Tambaram and Uthiramerur (all

Kancheepuram dt), Ponneri , Cholavaram, Chembarambakkam and Redhills (all

Tiruvallur dt), Gingee (Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Karaikal, Muthupet ,

Valangaiman and Tiruthuraipoondi (all Tiruvarur dt), Nagapatnam, Sirkazhi

(nagapatnam dt), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai dt), Bhavanisagar (Erode dt) and

Devala (Nilgiris dt) 1 each.

08 Nov 2010

Very heavy -

Heavy Palasa (Srikakulam dt) recorded extremely heavy rainfall of 27 centimetres.

Gingee (Villupuram dt) 16, Panruti (Cuddalore dt) 15, Sompeta (Srikakulam dt)

14, Ambur (Vellore dt) 13, Ichapuram (Srikakulam dt) and Vaniyambadi

(Vellore dt) 12 each, Puttur and Kuppam (both Chittoor dt), Tiruvannamalai and

Alangayam (Vellore dt) 11 each, Lakkavalli (Chickmagalur dt), Rayachoty (

Cuddapah dt), Kalingapatnam, Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Villupuram and

Puducherry Airport 10 each, Cuddalore , Tekali (Srikakulam dt), Vanur

(Villupuram dt) and Thali (Krishnagiri dt ) 9 each, Vempalli (Cuddapah dt),

Bheemunipatnam (Visakhapatnam dt), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram dt), Polur

(Tiruvannamalai dt) and Krishnagiri 8 each and Bangalore Airport, Hessaraghata

(Bangalore urban dt), Hosekote (Bangalore Rural dt), Gauribidanur and

Tondebhavi (Chickbalapur dt), Nargur, Y.N.Hosekote and Pavagadda (all

Tumkur dt), Thampalapalle (Chittoor dt), Madakasira, Hindupur and Kadiri (all

Anantapur dt), Nellore, Sulurpet (Nellore dt), Anakapalle (Visakhapatnam dt),

Mandasa (Srikakulam dt), Kandukur (Prakasam dt), Dharmapuri, Palacode

(Dharmapuri dt), Tirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai dt),

Arakonam, Gudiyatham, Sholingur and Tirupattur (all Vellore dt) and Vellore 7

17

each.

Other chief

amounts of

rainfall

Kunigal and Koratagere (both Tumkur dt), Channapatna (Ramanagara dt),

Sravanabelagola (Hassan dt), Santebennur (Davanagere dt), Parasurampura ,

Hiriyur and Baramasagar (all Chittoor dt), Bangalore,Tada and Rapur (both

Nellore dt), Kavali, Elamanchili (Visakhapatnam dt), Visakahapatnam ,

Penukonda and Dharmavaram (both Anantapur dt), Barur, Denkanikottai and

Rayakottah (all Krishnagiri dt), Maduranthagam and Uthiramerur (both

Kancheepuram dt), Arani, Chengam and Sathanurdam (Tiruvannmalai dt),

Melalathur (Vellore dt), Harur and Marandahalli ( both Dharmapuri dt) 6 each,

Chodavaram (Visakhapatnam dt), Udayagiri (Nellore dt), Patapatnam

(Srikakulam dt), Pulivendala and Rajampet (both Cuddapah dt), Chilamattur ,

Kalyandurg and Amarapuram (all Anantapur dt), Arogyavaram, Tirupathi

Airport, Anekal (Bangalore Urban dt), Huliyur Durga (Tumkur dt), Anna

University (Chennai dt), Chennai, Chennai airport, Kelambakkam,

Sriperumpudur and Cheyyur (all Kancheepuram dt), Kancheepuram ,

Tambaram, Chembarambakkam , R.K.Pet and Tiruvalangadu (all Tiruvallur dt),

Tirutani, Sankarapuram and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Cheyyar

(Tiruvannamalai dt), Anchetty,Hosur, Shoolagiri and Uhtangarai (all Krishnagiri

dt) 5 each, Banavasi (Uttara Kannada dt), Gadag, Hirekerur and Ranebennur

(both Haveri dt), Ajjampura and Tarekere (both Chickmagalur dt), Jagalur

(Davanagere dt), C.R.Patna (Hasan dt), Bangarpet (Kollar dt), Kanakapura

(Ramnagara dt), Hosedurg (Shimoga dt), Ranasthalam (Srikakulam dt),

Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Avanigadda (Krishna dt), Seethramapuram

(Nellore dt), Tanuku (West Godavari dt), Anantapur, Rayadurg , Pamidi and

Kanegal (All Anantapur dt), Chittoor, Venkatagiri Kota (Chittoor dt), Pallipattu,

Ponneri, Poonamalle, cholavaram and Red Hills (all Tiruvallur dt),

Virudhachalam (Cuddalore dt), Kolachel (Kanyakumari dt), Hogenekal,

Pappireddipatti and Pennagaram (all Dharmapuri dt) and Penugondapuram

(Krishnagiri dt) 4 each , Bapatla, Narsipatnam (Visakhapatnam dt), Vizianagaram

, Ongole, Bimavaram , Tadepalligudem and Koderu (all West Godavari dt), Tuni,

Rapalle (Guntur dt), Vinjamur , Gudur and Venkatagiri Town (all Nellore dt),

Peddapuram (East Godavari dt), Chintapalli (Visakhapatnam dt), Cheepurupalli

(Vizianagaram dt), Muddanur (Cuddapah dt), Srikalahasthi, Punganur, and

Kalakada (al Chittoor dt) , Kamlapuram and Lakkireddipalli (both Cuddapah dt),

Gersusoppa (Uttara Kannanda dt), Anigere and Bellati (both Dharward dt),

Hagari bommanahalli (Bellary dt), M.M.Hills (Chamrajnagara dt), Kadur ,

Kottigehra and N.R.Pura (all Chickmagalur dt), Harapanahalli (Davanagere dt),

Arsikere (Hassan dt), Arasalu , Humchadakatte and Talaguppa (all Shimoga dt),

DGP office (Chennai dt), Tiruvallur, Chidambaram , Sethiyathope and

Srimushnam (all Cuddalore dt), Parangipettai , Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt),

Walajapet (Vellore dt), Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Yercaud and Jayamkondam

(Ariyalur dt) 3 each, Tadipatri and Gooty (both Anantapur dt), Pakala (Chitttoor

dt), Jammalamadugu , Prodattur , Porumamilla and Badvel (all Cuddapah dt),

Salur, Terlam and Srunguvarupukotta (all Vizianagaram dt), Koyyalagudem and

18

Eluru (both West Godavari dt), Narsapur, Rentachintala, Mangalagiri (Guntur

dt), Machilipatnam, Arakuvalley (Visakhapatnam dt), Atmakur (Nellore dt),

Palakonda (Srikakulam dt), Kommarada (Vizianagaram dt), Darsi (Prakasam dt),

Kollur (Udupi dt), Bhatkal (Uttara Kannada dt), Kundgol and Navalgund (both

Dharward dt), Shirahatti (Gadag dt), Koppal , Kushtagi and Tavaragere (all

Koppal dt), Sringeri (Chickmagalur dt), Alur and Holenarsipur (both Hassan dt),

Srirangapatnam (Mandya dt), Agumbe, Thyagarthi (Shimoga dt), Poondi and

Thamaraipakkam (both Tiruvallur dt), Kattumannar koil (Cuddalore dt),

Kolllidam and Sirkazhi (both Nagapattinam dt), Boothapandi, Mylaudi ,

Nagerkoil and Thucklay (all Kanyakumari dt), Omalur and Vazhapadi (both

Salem dt) and Vembavur 2 each and Bhimodole, Chintalapudi and Polavaram

(all West Godavari dt), Veerghattam (Srikakulam dt), Rajahmundry and

Prathypadu (both East Godavari dt), Paderu and Gajapathinagaram (both

Visakhapatnam dt), Nandigama, Gannavaram, Tiruvuru, Gudivada and Kaikalur

(all Krishna dt), Cumbum (Prakasam dt), Sattenapalli, Tenali, Macherla and

Atchampet (all Guntur dt), Guntur, Bobbili and Gajapathinagaram (both

Vizianagaram dt), Khammam, Devarakonda, Suryapet and Ramannapet (all

Nalgonda dt), Atchampet and Kalwakuruthy (both Mahabubnagar dt),

Mahabubabad (Warangal dt), Dhone, Holagonda, Alur, Yemmaigannur and

Allagadda (all Kurnool dt), Mysore, K.R.Sagara (Mandya dt), Muli , Puttur

and Subramanya (all Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala , Kundapur and Kota (all

Udupi dt), Udupi, Honavar, Jagalbet and Yellapur (both Uttara Kannada dt),

Shirali, Badami and Hungund (both Bagalkot dt), Belguam Airport, Gokak

(Belguam dt), Mudgal (Raichur dt), Kollegal and Yellandur (both Chamrajnagara

dt), Arkalgud and Halli Mysore (both Hassan dt), Somwarpet (Kodagu dt),

Tozhudur (Cuddalore dt), Karaikal , Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Mayiladuthurai

(Nagapattinam dt), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Mangalapuram and Rasipuram

(both Namakkal dt), Athur (Salem dt), Salem and Ariyalur 1 each.

19

TABLE 3

Thermodynamic parameters CAPE, CINE and TPWC during 05-08 November 2010 / 00

UTC

Date / Time Parameter Station

Karaikal Chennai Machilipatnam

05th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 0 786 2331

CINE (J/Kg) 0 -24 -201

TPWC (mm) 61.7 49.5 63.2

06th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 2016 529 1

CINE (J/Kg) -145 -43 -35

TPWC (mm) 63.3 56.5 35.8

07th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 1963 0 1

CINE (J/Kg) -34 0 0

TPWC (mm) 52.5 67.7 68.5

08th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 0 0 2

CINE (J/Kg) 0 0 0

TPWC (mm) 48.7 64.5 85.3

CAPE : Convective Available Potential Energy

CINE : Convective Inhibition Energy

TPWC: Total Precipitable Water Content

20

Fig.1 Locations of stations / Sagar Kanya cruise were special observations were taken

21

Fig.2 IMD’s Best track of SCS ‘Jal’

22

05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(3a) (3b)

23

07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(3c) (3d)

Fig.3(a-d) Surface Synoptic analysis charts of 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC

24

05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(4a) (4b)

07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 /00UTC

(4c) (4d)

Fig.4(a-d) 24 hr pressure departures during05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC

25

05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(5a) (5b)

07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 /00UTC

(5c) (5d)

Fig.5(a-d) Surface Humidity during 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC

26

05 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC

(6a) (6b)

07 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC 08 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC

(6c)

Fig.6(a-d) 24 hr accumulated precipitation recorded during 05-08 November 2010 / 03 UTC

27

7(a)

28

7(b)

29

7(c)

30

7(d)

Fig.7(a-d) Plots of surface synoptic observations (3 hourly) at selected stations and in Sagar Kanya cruise (6 hourly)

during 05-08 November 2010

31

05 NOV 2010

8(a)

32

06 NOV 2010

8(b)

33

07 NOV 2010

8(c)

34

08 NOV 2010

8(d)

Fig.8(a-d) Mean upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 & 200 hPa levels during 05-08 November 2010

35

05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam

9(a)

36

06NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam

9(b)

37

07 NOV 2010

(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam

9(c)

38

8 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam

9(d)

Fig.9(a-d)(i-iii) Tephigrams of Karaikal, Chennai(MBK) and Machilipatnam during 00 UTC of 05-08 November 2010

39

05 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC 06 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC

(10a) (10b)

07 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC 07 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC

(10c) (10d)

40

07 Nov 2010 12:00 UTC 08 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC

(10e) (10f)

Fig.10(a-f) KALPANA-1 OLR (W/m2) for 05-08/00 UTC and 07/06&12 UTC of Nov 2010

41

05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(11a)

06 NOV 2010/00UTC

(11b)

42

07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC

(11c)

07 NOV 2010 / 06 UTC

(11d)

43

07 NOV 2010 / 12 UTC

(11e)

08 NOV 2010 /00 UTC

(11f)

Fig.11 (a-f) KALPANA – 1, Cloud Top Temperature (Below -40 deg C) during 05-08/00

UTC and 07/06&12 UTC Nov 2010

44

(12a)

45

(12b)

46

(12c)

47

(12d)

Fig.12(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis based on 05-08/00 UTC

48

(13a)

(13b)

49

(13c)

(13d)

Fig.13(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai wind forecasts over Chennai during 05-08 Nov 2010

50

(14a)

(14b)

51

(14c)

(14d)

Fig. 14(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai track forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’

52

(15a)

(15b)

Fig. 15(a&b) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai Intensity forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’

53

Fig.16 Plot of AWS observations on 07th

/ 16UTC (around the coastal crossing time of SCS Jal)