fiber access: the ultra broadband end game - current … · washington dc / paris fiber access: the...
TRANSCRIPT
Washington DC / Paris
Fiber Access: the Ultra Broadband End Game
Erik M. Keith, Principal Analyst, Fixed Access Infrastructure
17-18 November, 2010
2© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
FTTP Service and Market Drivers
FTTP Technologies
Reality Check: Mass Market Impediments to FTTP
Current Pre-fiber Options and Enabling Technologies
Cable HFC
Telco FTTx
FTTP Market Contenders: Competitive Analysis
Summary & Conclusions
2
4© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
FTTP Service and Market Drivers
Video, Video, and More Video Ever-increasing Downstream BW Demand, Video Driven
HD replacing SD
Increasing Unicast/OTT/VoD Traffic (e.g., home-to-home HD Tele-
presence)
“Ubiquitous” TV
The Data-centric Perspective “Exa(byte) Flood” - By 2011, monthly Internet traffic in N. America alone
will exceed 7.8 Exabytes; global figures for 2011 will reach ~24 Exabytes
Also by 2011: 3m Terabytes of mobile access network subscriber traffic
(voice, data, TV/video ~even), >250,000 Petabytes of fixed access network
subscriber traffic (60% TV/video, 35% data, 5% voice)
OpEx Gains
Consolidation of fixed/wireless networks
Mobile Backhaul, esp. LTE will require fiber
4
5
5
Downstream Bandwidth Requirements per Home
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
2010 2020 2030
Low
Medium
High
23
53
113
558
1,398
2,2273,118
8,892
28,799
Mbps
Mbps
Mbps
Mbps
Mbps
Mbps
6© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved. 6
Evolving Television/Video Bandwidth Requirements
Bandwidth Needed to Receive One
TV Stream/Channel Over the Next ~20 Years
2D Standard-Definition TV 2 Mbps
2D HDTV 10 Mbps
2D Super (ITU J.601) 50 Mbps
3D Standard-Definition TV 126 Mbps
2D Ultra HD (ITU J.601) 200 Mbps
3D HDTV 280 Mbps
3D Super 796 Mbps
3D Ultra 2.571 Gbps
8© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The Full-Fiber Access Universe: Ethernet FTTP
Active or Point-to-Point (P2P) Ethernet
Positives:
– Symmetric connection to each subscriber
– 10/100 FE or 1 Gbps (GigE) right now
– More “Future Proof” than passive
– No oversubscription of end users
Concerns:
– Cost!
– Fiber management, esp. in mass market scenarios
Passive Optical Networking (PON)
Positives:
– More cost-effective than AE/P2P Ethernet FTTP
– Fiber Management
Concerns:
– Potential oversubscription is closer than with AE/P2P
– Is current-generation PON already outdated?
8
9© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Current and Future PON Technologies
Gigabit PON (GPON) – ITU Standard
Verizon FiOS: BPON+GPON, already trialing XG-PON
Ethernet PON (EPON) – IEEE Standard
Japan, S. Korea, China
10G EPON
Already Standardized in 2009
10G GPON = XG-PON
Standard(s) Pending
NGOA projects
Tellabs, Nokia Siemens Networks
SARDANA = Scalable Advanced Ring-based passive Dense Access Network Architecture
PIEMAN = Photonic Integrated Extended Metro and Access Network
WDM-PON
Pioneers: Corecess, LG-Ericsson, ADVA Optical Networking
The Big Three
9
Washington DC / Paris
CapEx, Regulatory Hurdles and Other Barriers
Reality Check:
Mass Market Impediments to FTTP
11© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
So, Why Not Deploy FTTP Universally, Right Now?
Massive CapEx
FTTP costs 2x to 5x higher than existing plant
Regulatory Issues
European Union LLU
Workaround (?): France Telecom RF trial
Which FTTP Technology?
Active/Passive?
XG-PON and/or WDM-PON?
Strong Near-term Alternatives
11
Washington DC / Paris
Telco and Cable Operator Alternatives
Current Pre-FTTP Options and
Enabling Technologies
13© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Cable HFC Enabling Technologies
Cable Head-End Evolution: Higher-density d/s & u/s CMTS
blades, I-CMTS, M-CMTS
DOCSIS 3.0 Channel Bonding
Switched Digital Video (SDV)
Compression (H.264), aka MPEG-4
Increased RF Spectrum (860 MHz up to/over 1 GHz)
Deeper Last Amplifiers
Radio Frequency over Glass (RFoG)
Converged Multiservice Access Platform (CMAP)
Last but not Least: Node Splits
13
14© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Node Split Gains, Progression of Bandwidth and QAMs
14
Source: Motorola
15© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Telco FTTx Enabling Technologies
What Distinguishes FTTx from FTTP?
FTTx encompasses both FTTP/H and fiber-fed DSL
DSL Vectoring (G.vector) and Bonding
Phantom Mode
Super MIMO
Dynamic Spectrum Management (DSM) L2, L3
Artificial and Virtual Noise
DSL Chipsets
15
17© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
FTTP Market Contenders: Global Snapshot
Vendor GigE AE/P2P GPON EPON Comments
Adtran √ √ No N.Am.-centric
Alcatel-Lucent √ √ China only #2 FTTP WW
Calix √ √ No N.Am.-centric
Cisco √ No No #1 Ethernet
ECI Telecom √ √ No BT Openreach
Ericsson √ √ China only Top 5 GPON
Huawei √ √ √ #1 FTTP WW
Iskratel √ No No Europe-centric
Keymile √ No No Europe-centric
Motorola √ √ No Top 3 GPON
PacketFront √ √ No Receivership
Zhone √ √ No Top 5 GPON
ZTE √ √ √ Top 3 WW
17
18© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
FTTP Market Contenders: PON Roadmap Evolution
Vendor 10G EPON XG-PON WDM-PON Comments
ADVA Optical No No G.A. Customers?
Alcatel-Lucent No Verizon trial Not public VZ XG-PON2
Corecess √ No √ Deployed
Ericsson No Lab trial (LG-Ericsson) Strong upside
Huawei √ Verizon trial Trials VZ XG-PON1
LG-Ericsson No No G.A. Deployed
Motorola No Verizon trial Not public VZ XG-PON1
NSN (via Dasan) (via Dasan) NGOA R&D Waiting…
Tellabs No No SARDANA Waiting…
ZTE √ √ Trials Strong overall
18
19© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Other Notable FTTP Market Contenders and Issues
APAC the Epicenter of EPON
Japan and Korea dominated by home market vendors
– Fujitsu, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, NEC, Sumitomo
– Dasan, Corecess
China similar, but with some notable traction by others
Vendor Consolidation Not Over: Vulnerable Vendors
PacketFront
Allied Telesis
Enablence
Telco Systems
UTStarcom
New Kids on the Block
Alphion (India)
FiberHome (China)
ZyXEL (Taiwan)
19
20© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Summary and Conclusions: Points of Light
Evolving DSL and cable HFC technologies still very strong
options for operators
Kabel Deutschland 1 Gbps trial highlights HFC potential
Fiber-fed DSL still a massive market thanks to enablers
GPON, EPON will gain traction, with GPON steadily gaining
ground on EPON
XG-PON, once standardized, AE/P2P Ethernet FTTP also make
gains in key geographies
WDM-PON coming first for Backhaul, but not for mass market
FTTH until at least 2014-2015
Recommendation: RF Video over Fiber a very attractive option
20
2121
For more information, please contact:
Erik M. Keith
Principal Analyst, Fixed Access Infrastructure
+1.703.788.3725
Thank You
Recommended Reports:
Broadband World Forum 2010: Alcatel-Lucent Grabs the Limelight, with NSN, ECI Telecom and ADTRAN Also Garnering Great Exposurehttp://www.currentanalysis.com/COMPETE/FrontEnd/Report.aspx?rid=55660
Calix Expands E Series of Ethernet Service Access Platforms with new Flagship and Node Solutionshttp://www.currentanalysis.com/COMPETE/FrontEnd/Report.aspx?rid=55668
Alcatel-Lucent Trials XG-PON2 on Both Sides of the Atlantic, with Verizon and Portugal Telecomhttp://www.currentanalysis.com/COMPETE/FrontEnd/Report.aspx?rid=55502
Alcatel-Lucent’s ISAM Release 4.2 Dramatically Enhances 7302 and 7330 Series with GPON and Related System Upgradeshttp://www.currentanalysis.com/COMPETE/FrontEnd/Report.aspx?rid=55474
2010 FTTH Council North America: Calix Grabs Spotlight, with 1 Gbps and WDM-PON also Generating Noisehttp://www.currentanalysis.com/COMPETE/FrontEnd/Report.aspx?rid=55161