fiction-reality entanglement: levinson, asimov, and clarke

8/3/2019 Fiction-Reality Entanglement: Levinson, Asimov, And Clarke

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Nmctmlk-Xagjmty Aktgkfjaeakt9 Pguj Javmkslk, Msggc Gsmelv, Gkb Grtdur C. Cjgroa

Hy

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Clpyrmfdt 8077 hy Mgk Hagrbsjay


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Vdmja tdms pgpar bagjs mk pgrt wmtd tda Egygk Prlpdacy nlr slea omkb ln

akb, gkb pardgps wlkbarnuj kaw hafmkkmkf nlr duegks mk 8078, tda gutdlr

naajs avak mn kltdmkf dgppaks mk 8078 tdgt tda bmsclvarmas daramk egba

partgmk tl sleatdmkf meplrtgkt. Mt wgs tda kucjagr pdysmcmst Sdajmgo wdl

clrractab tda lrmfmkgj tmea wgva ln Rarrakca EcOakkg (wdmcd akbs mk 8078)

gkb sgmb mt sdlujb ha clksmbarab sarmlusjy hacgusa mt blas jmka up wmtd

dmstlry. M hajmava hacgusa tda tmea wgva blas jmka up wmtd dmstlry gkb wgs

hgsab lk tda mbag tdgt tda Omkf Vak sarmas ln M Cdmkf usab nlr Cdmkasa

nlrtuka tajjmkf wgs ragjjy g egtdaegtmcgj cgjakbgr hgsab lk tda eltmlks ln

cajastmgj hlbmas, tdgt mt ms mkbaab meplrtgkt. M wgs mktrlbucab tl tda tmea

wgva ln Rarrakca EcOakkg wdak M sakt tda pgpar Gsmelvmgk Prabmctmlk Nlr

Dyparbrmva, prasaktab mk tdms hllo, tl Kamj Nraar, gutdlr ln Hragomkf Rda

Flbspajj, gkb da tljb ea tl jllo mktl mt. Mt pgkkab lut haylkb ey wmjbast

brages.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Klvaehar 70, 8077


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M dgva wrmttak tdraa pgpars lk tda gklegjy ln dlw ey scmaktmnmc mkvastmfgtmlk sdlws tda

Qkmvarsa rajgtab tl tda scmakca nmctmlk ln Pguj Javmkslk, Msggc Gsmelv, gkb Grtdur C.Cjgroa. Mk ey jgst pgpar, Rda Javmkslk-Gsmelv-Cjgroa Aqugtmlk pgrt ln tda

clepradaksmva wlro Rda Javmkslk, Gsmelv, Cjgroa Rrmptmc, M suffast tdasa tdraa

gutdlrs sdlujb ha tgoak tlfatdar tl egoa slea omkb ln g wdlja, tdgt tday gra mktartwmkab

gkb gt tda dagrt ln scmakca nmctmlk. M dgva klw ragjmzab g nlurtd pgpar ms wgrrgktab, gkb mtms iust tda hragotdrlufd M dgva haak jllomkf nlr tl put eysajn lk sljmb frlukb wmtd tda

cjgme tdgt nmctmlk ms rajgtab tl ragjmty mk g egtdaegtmcgj wgy partgmkmkf tl tda Jgws ln

Kgtura. M cgjj mt Nmctmlk-Xagjmty Aktgkfjaeakt.

Mk ey pgpar Pguj Javmkslk, Msggc Gsmelv, Grtdur C. Cjgroa Mktartwmkab Vmtd Gk

Gstrlklears Xasagrcd, M egoa tda egtdaegtmcgj prabmctmlk tdgt duegks dgva g 60%

cdgkca ln bavajlpmkf Dyparbrmva mk tda yagr 8023 tl wlrb mt gs Pguj Javmkslk wlrbab

mt, gkb M plmkt lut tdgt tdms ms lkjy g yagr gntar tda cdgrgctar Smarrg Vgtars ms dgkbab gkawjy bmsclvarab blcueakt tdgt sats mk eltmlk tda klvaj hy Pguj Javmkslk, Rda Pjlt Rl

Sgva Slcrgtas.

M klw nmkb tdgt Msggc Gsmelv puts sucd g bavajlpeakt mk dms scmakca nmctmlk gt g smemjgrtmea mk tda nutura, pracmsajy mk 8022, lkjy g yagr gntar ey prabmctmlk gkb twl yagrs gntar

Smarrg Vgtars ms dgkbab tda kawjy bmsclvarab blcueakt tdgt mkmtmgtas dar gbvaktura. Sl,

wa dgva ey prabmctmlk, wdmcd ms rajgtab tl tda structura ln tda ukmvarsa mk g eystmcgj wgy

rmfdt mk hatwaak tda bgtas ln Javmkslk gkb Gsmelv, tdamr bgtas lkjy hamkf g yagr jass gkbg yagr fragtar tdgk emka.

Gsmelv pjgcas dyparbrmva mk tda yagr 8022 mk dms sdlrt stlry Avmbakca wdmcd ms pgrt lndms scmakca nmctmlk cljjactmlk ln sdlrt stlrmas cgjjab, M, Xlhlt.

Rdms ms g cljjactmlk ln sdlrt stlrmas wdara Xlhlt Psycdljlfmst Br. Susgk Cgjvmk msmktarvmawab hy g wrmtar ghlut dar axparmakca wmtd tda clepgky lk agrtd mk tda nutura tdgtnmrst bavajlpab slpdmstmcgtab rlhlts. Mk tdms hllo, tda jgws ln rlhltmcs gra cragtab gkb tda

mbag ln tda plsmtrlkmc hrgmk mktrlbucab, gkb tda kgtura ln tda mepgct rlhlts wlujb dgva lk

duegk cmvmjmzgtmlk ms axpjlrab. Nljjlwmkf tdms cljjactmlk ln stlrmas Gsmelv wrlta tdraa

elra klvajs, wdmcd cleprmsa tda rlhlt sarmas, Rda Cgvas ln Staaj, Rda Kgoab Suk,gkb Rda Xlhlts ln Bgwk.

M, Xlhlt ms Agrtd mk tda nutura iust hanlra Duegkmty sattjas tda elra kagrhy stgrs. Rda

klvajs cleprmsmkf Rda Xlhlt Sarmas gra wdak duegkmty dgs cljlkmzab tda kagrhy stgrsystaes, Rda Nlukbgtmlk Rrmjlfy, gkb mts praquajs gkb saquajs gra ghlut tda tmea

duegkmty dgs spragb tdrlufdlut tda aktmra fgjgxy gkb egba gk Aepmra ln mt. Gjj ln tdasahllos cgk ha tgoak tlfatdar gs lka stlry, wmtd cdgrgctars gkb avakts mk slea, lccurrmkf

mk ltdars.


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Dyparbrmva ms mkvaktab mk M, Xlhlt hy g rlhlt cgjjab Rda Hrgmk, lwkab hy tda clepgky

nlr wdmcd Br. Susgk Cgjvmk wlros wdak mt ms nab tda egtdaegtmcgj jlfmstmcgj prlhjaes lnegomkf dyparbrmva, gkb gsoab tl sljva tdae. Mt blas sljva tdae gkb mt lnnars tda spacs lk

humjbmkf gk mktarstajjgr sdmp, nlr wdmcd twl akfmkaars nljjlw mk mts clkstructmlk. Rday gra

duelrlusjy sakt gcrlss tda fgjgxy hy Rda Hrgmk, klt axpactmkf mt, gkb hrlufdt hgco tl

agrtd mk tda sdmp gntar tday clkstructab mt. Rdms wgs mk tda stlry mk M, Xlhlt tmtjabAscgpa!.

Hut Br. Susgk Cgjvmk stgtas mk tda nljjlwmkf sdlrt stlry, tdgt M eaktmlkab, Avmbakca9

Hut tdgt wgskt mt, amtdarLd, avaktugjjy, tda sdmp gkb ltdars jmoa mt hacgea

flvarkeakt prlparty? tda Iuep tdrlufd dyparspgca wgs parnactab, gkb klw wa gctugjjy

dgva duegk cljlkmas lk tda pjgkats ln slea ln tda kagrar stgrs, hut tdgt wgskt mt.

Mt wgs wdgt dgppakab tl tda palpja dara lk Agrtd mk jgst nmnty yagrs tdgt ragjjy clukts.

Gkb, wdgt dgppakab tl palpja lk Agrtd< Rda gkswar ms mk tda sgea stlry Avmbakcanrle wdmcd tdgt qulta ms gt tda hafmkkmkf. Mt wgs wdak tda Xafmlks ln tda Agrtd nlreabRda Nabargtmlk. Br. Susgk Cgjvmk sgys gt tda akb ln tda stlry Avmbakca9

Da wgs g vary fllb egylr? nmva yagrs jgtar da bmb haclea Xafmlkgj Cl-lrbmkgtlr. Gkb

wdak tda Xafmlks ln Agrtd nlreab tdamr Nabargtmlk mk 8022, da hacgea tda nmrst VlrjbCl-lrbmkgtlr.

Mt ms nrle tdgt stgtaeakt tdgt M fat ey bgta ln 8022 gs tda yagr Gsmelv prliacts nlrdyparbrmva.

Mgk HagrbsjayEgrcd 76, 8077


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Vmompabmg Akcycjlpabmg wrmtas9

Rmeawgva zarl" ms g kuearljlfmcgjnlreujg tdgt purplrts tl cgjcujgta tda ahh

gkb njlw ln "klvajty", banmkab gs mkcragsa mk tda ukmvarsa's mktarclkkactabkass,

lr lrfgkmsab clepjaxmty,_>>Ulvar tmea. Gcclrbmkf tl Rarakca EcOakkg, wdl

clkcamvab tda mbag lvar savargj yagrs mk tda agrjy- tl emb-7=60s wdmja usmkfpsmjlcyhmk eusdrllesgkb BER, tda ukmvarsa dgs g tajaljlfmcgjgttrgctlr gt tda

akb ln tmeatdgt mkcragsas mktarclkkactabkass, avaktugjjy ragcdmkf g smkfujgrmty

ln mknmkmta clepjaxmty mk 8078, gt wdmcd plmkt gkytdmkf gkb avarytdmkf megfmkghja

wmjj lccur smeujtgkalusjy.

Rdara ms g vary gttrgctmva wgy tl gpprlgcdmkf tda pdakleaklk tdgt scmakca nmctmlk ms

mktarclkkactab wmtd clsemc avakts. Mktarclkkactabkass lccurs, mk ey axparmakca, hltd mk

Mtgjy gkb mk Eaxmcl.

Vdak M wgs egrrmab tl g wlegk nrle Mtgjy, wa usab tl wgtcd gk Gearmcgk slgp lparg

cgjjab Rda Hljb gkb tda Hagutmnuj wdak wa wara jmvmkf mk Cgjmnlrkmg. Vdak ey wmnagkb M wakt tl Mtgjy, mt turkab lut tdgt tda eltdar ln ey wmna jmoab tda slgp lparg tll, gkb

tdgt mt gmrab mk Mtgjy.

Vdak ey wmna gkb M grrmvab mk Mtgjy, tda sdlw klt lkjy gmrab mk Mtgjy, hut tda aktmra cgst

nlr tdgt sdlw wgs mk Mtgjy, gkb mt wgs hamkf nmjeab tdara hacgusa mt wgs pgrt ln tda stlry mk

tda slgp lparg tdgt tda lka ln tda cdgrgctars mk tda stlry flt g ilh gs g ngsdmlk elbaj mkMtgjy, wdmcd hrlufdt dar gkb gjj ln dar nrmakbs tl Mtgjy.

Hut, mt wakt nurtdar tdgk tdgt. Vdak M wgs mk Mtgjy, ey wmna gkb M wgtcdab g elvma tdgt

iust cgea lut, M blkt raeaehar tda kgea, hut mt wgs ghlut g wrmtar wdl dgb wrmtars

hjlco, gkb dms nrmakb suffastab tdgt tda twl ln tdae jagva tda cmty gkb fl tl g ratragt lutmk kgtura tl fat g nrasd vmaw ln jmna. Dlwavar, tda wrmtar mk tda elvma wgs flmkf crgzy gt

tda ratragt hacgusa tdara wgs kl tajavmsmlk, gkb da wgs dgvmkf g dgrb tmea hamkf gwgy

nrle wgtcdmkf tda slgp lparg, Rda Hljb Gkb Rda Hagutmnuj. Vdak kaw tlurmsts grrmvabgt tda ratragt, da yajjab lut nrle dms cghmk tl tdae, Vdgt dgs haclea ln sl, gkb sl, mk

tda Hljb gkb Rda Hagutmnuj


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pjgca wgs nujj. Mt wgs hacgusa tdara wgs g hmf cajahrgtmlk flmkf lk mk tda cmty. Sl, tda cgh

brmvar brlppab us lnn gt lka ln tda pjgzgs gkb tdara wa wara tdmkomkf wdgt wa wara flmkftl bl wdak M rgk mktl tda twl Faregk fmrjs M dgb jat stgy gt ey pjgca mk Wuaratgrl. M

axpjgmkab tl tdae tdgt wa wara jllomkf nlr g pjgca tl stgy hut avarytdmkf wgs nujj.

Rday sgmb tday dgb g pjgca tl stgy gkb tdgt wa clujb stgy tdara. Va wara tljb tl fl tltdamr wmkblw gt g pgrtmcujgr Eltaj, tday wlujb tdrlw us tda oays tl tdamr rlle lut tda

wmkblw, gkb wa wara tl wgjo tdrlufd tda egmk lnnmca ln tda Dltaj, sdlw tdae tda oays

gkb gct jmoa wa gjragby raktab g rlle tdara.

Sl, tdara ms g cartgmk omkb ln egfmc mk Mtgjy gkb Eaxmcl tdgt ms vary ragj, tdgt varmnmas tda

tdalry ln mktarclkkactabkass mk tda tdalry ln tmeawgva zarl. Sucd g tdaea ms cleelk tl

Slutd Gearmcgk Jmtargtura. Clksmbar tda klvaj Gukt Iujmg gkb Rda Scrmptwrmtar hy

Egrml ^grfgs Jjlsg. Mt ms ghlut g scrmptwrmtar wdl ms wrmtmkf g waaojy slgp lparg nlr grgbml tdagtar gkb mt cleas tl tda plmkt sda cgkklt bmstmkfumsd dar jmna nrle tda slgp sda ms

wrmtmkf gkb blas klt oklw gntar gwdmja wdmcd ms ragj, tda rgbml brgeg lr dar jmna.

Va dgva jagrkab tdgt tda tdalry ln tmeawgva zarl dgs gk aqugtmlk tdgt sdlws dlwavarytdmkf mk tda Qkmvarsa takbs tlwgrbs g dmfdar bafraa ln mktarclkkactabkass. M tdmko mt

ms tmea M jagrk tl usa tda aqugtmlk gkb mkput tda bgtas tdgt crlp up mk ey gstrlklemcgj

rasagrcd wmtd tdlsa tdgt crlp up mk tda scmakca nmctmlk ln Pguj Javmkslk gkb Msggc

Gsmelv.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Egrcd 76, 8077


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Gkltdar nmka axgepja ln mktarclkkactabkass ms put nlrtd mk tda hllo Rda Cgstja ln

Crlssab Bastmkmas hy Mtgjl Cgjvmkl, gk Mtgjmgk wrmtar. Mk tdms stlry gk ljb cgstja ms gk mkknlr trgvajars. Gntar nllb gkb brmko gt tda sgea tghja mk tda cgstja, lka kmfdt, gjj ln tda

trgvajars strgkfars tl lka gkltdar, hafmk g prlcass wdara lka parslk jgys lut g tgrlt cgrb

gkb tajjs g stlry ghlut mt tdgt rajgtas tl dms trgvajs hanlra da grrmvab gt tda mkk. Da jgys lut

cgrbs nlremkf jmkas tdgt tajj dms stlry, tdak ltdar trgvajars jgy lut cgrbs tajjmkf tdarastlrmas, hut nmkb tday cgk usa cgrbs tdgt ltdar trgvajars gjragby usab gkb mt turks lut tday

dgva tda sgea eagkmkf sleatmeas. Sl, tdlufd tdasa trgvajars kavar eat, tday

akcluktarab mk tdamr trgvajs tda sgea palpja lr avakts gt tmeas, tday nmkb. Rda nmkmsdab

jgylut jllos jmoa g nmkmsdab fgea ln blemklas wmtd plmkts ln mktarsactmlk gt egky splts.Mt turks lut tdgt avarylka sdgrab axparmakcas mk cleelk hut dgb kavar eat lka gkltdar,

dakca tda tmtja ln tda hllo, Rda Cgstja ln Crlssab Bastmkmas.

Lka clujb sgy Pguj Javmkslk gkb Msggc Gsmelv clujb jgy blwk tda sgea cgrb nlr tda stgrGjpdg Caktgurm, hacgusa tdgt stgr wgs mkvljvab mk ey cgjcujgtmlk nlr dyparbrmva tdgt

mktarsactab wmtd Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas gkb M, Xlhlt. G crlssab bastmky ln g slrt.

Mt emfdt ha g fllb mbag tl ragb Rda Mkvmsmhja Jgkbscgpa hy Rarakca EcOakkg saclkbabmtmlk 7==3.

EcOakkgs tmeawgva, wdmcd sdlws tda ahh gkb njlw ln tmea, flas lnn tda cdgrt lr tl

mknmkmty, mk ltdar wlrbs, mk 8078. Sl mt ms meplssmhja tl saa wdgt dgppaks haylkb tdgt bgta.Mt wlujb suffast tdgt tmea akbs mk 8078, lr g kaw ragjmty hafmks tdak. EcOakkg suffasts

tdgt tda tmeawgva flas lnn tda cdgrt mk 8078 hacgusa tdgt ms wdak wa mkvakt tmea trgvaj,

mk wdmcd cgsa tda tmeawgva wlujb kl jlkfar ha jmkagr.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Egrcd 74, 8077

M wgtcdab g vmbal lk ylutuha ghlut Rarakca EcOakkg wdara da jacturab lk dms

tmeawgva zarl tdalry. M nlukb tdara wgs klt gk aqugtmlk nlr dms tmeawgva zarl frgpd hut

tdgt g cleputar gjflrmtde fakargtab tda frgpd ln tda wgva. Rda kaxt bgy M bmb g sagrcd lk

tda mktarkat tl saa mn g parslk clujb blwkjlgb tmeawgva slntwgra nlr nraa. Gs mt turkablut lka clujb, nlr hltd Egc gkb pc. Mt ms cgjjab Rmeawgva Cgjcujgtlr ^arsmlk 7.0. M

blwkjlgbab tda slntwgra gkb nlukb ylu dgb tl blwkjlgb mt avary tmea gntar ylu qumt tda

gppjmcgtmlk gkb tdgt ylu clujb klt sgva tda frgpd ln ylur rasujts lr prmkt tdae lut. Sl M

bmb g lka-tmea cgjcujgtmlk. Mt wlros jmoa tdms9 ylu mkput tda rgkfa ln tmea lvar wdmcd yluwgkt saa tda tmeawgva gkb ylu cgkklt cgjcujgta pgst 8078, hacgusa tdgt ms wdak tda

tmeawgva akbs. ]lu gjsl put mk g tgrfat bgta, tda tmea wdak ylu wgkt tl fat g rgtmkf nlrtda klvajty ln tda avakt tdgt lccurrab lk tdgt bgy. ]lu cgk gjsl cjmco lk gky plmkt mk tda

frgpd tl fat tda klvajty rgtmkf nlr tdgt tmea. M put mk9


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Mkput9

Hafmk Bgta9 Bacaehar 86 7=>4 74 dlurs 1 emkutas 36 saclkbs

Akb Bgta9 Bacaehar 8 8077 0 dlurs 84 emkutas 6 saclkbs

EcOakkg sgmb mk tda vmbal lk ylutuha tdgt tda bmps, lr vgjjays, mk tda tmeawgva frgpdraprasakt klvajtmas. Sl, M cjmcoab lk tda nmrst vgjjay gntar 7=>= smkca tdgt ms tda yagr wa

wakt tl tda ellk, gkb tda prlfrge fgva mts klvajty gs9

Sdajmgo Rmeawgva ^gjua Nlr Rgrfat9

0.0>87

Lk Rgrfat Bgta9 Gufust 2, 7=>= = dlurs 13 emkutas 34 saclkbs

M wgs dgppy tl saa tdms hacgusa, M bataremkab tdgt tda frlwtd rgta clkstgkt, o, tdgt rgta gt

wdmcd wa prlfrass tlwgrbs dyparbrmva, mk ey cgjcujgtmlk mk ey wlro GsmelvmgkPrabmctmlk Nlr Dyparbrmva, tdgt fgva tda bgta 8023, g yagr gntar Smarrg Vgtars wgs dgkbabtda kawjy bmsclvarab blcueakt tdgt stgrtab dar gbvaktura mk Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas,

hy Pguj Javmkslk, gkb g yagr hanlra Msggc Gsmelv dgb pjgcab tda mkvaktmlk ln dyparbrmva

mk dms hllo M, Xlhlt, wgs9

(o50.0>87)

Rda vary sgea kuehar!!!

Vdgt blas tdgt eagk< M dgva kl mbag? M wmjj nmkb lut gntar M huy Rda Mkvmsmhja Jgkbscgpa

hy Rarakca EcOakkg, Saclkb Abmtmlk, gkb huy g elra slpdmstmcgtab tmeawgva slntwgratdgk tdgt wdmcd ms lnnarab nlr nraa lk tda kat.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Egrcd 7=, 8077


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M cgk sgy tdms. Rdara gra twl plssmhmjmtmas9

Va gra amtdar vgjmbgtmkf tda tmea wgva tdalry ln Rarrakca EcOakkg wdmcd

sgys amtdar9

7) tmea akbs mk 8078 (wlujbk't ha nuk)8) g kaw ragjmty hafmks mk 8078

3) wa mkvakt tmea trgvaj mk 8078 sl tdgt ms wdy tda EcOakkg tmeawgva blas klt wlro

pgst 8078.

Lr wa gra clkstructmkf g kaw tmeawgva hgsab lk tda scmakca nmctmlk ln Javmkslk, Gsmelv

gkb Cjgroa hacgusa tdamr trgiactlry cgk ha suhstgktmgtab hy g structura wa gra nmkbmkf mk

tda ukmvarsa, gkb tda upsmba ms mt dgs kl akb, hut rgtdar suffasts wa wmjj dgva dyparbrmva

hy 8028 tl 8022 gkb wmtd tdgt mt sacuras tda nutura ln duegkomkb mktl atarkmty.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Egrcd 7=, 8077

Rda Sgea Kuehar Mk Rdraa Pjgcas

M dgva plmktab lut tdgt 0.0>87 5 o tda frlwtd rgta clkstgkt tlwgrbs dyparbrmva mk ey

pgpar, Rda Javmkslk,-Gselv-Cjgroa Pdakleaklk. M dgva plmktab lut tdgt mk EcOakkg

tmea wgva tdalry 0.0>87 ms ms tda klvajty rgtmkf nlr 7=>=, tda yagr egk jgkbab lk tdaellk. Lur cluktmkf systae ms hgsa 70, mt dgs haak sgmb prlhghjy hacgusa wa dgva tak

nmkfars. Mn wa eujtmpjy 0.0>87 hy 70, tdgt ms mkcragsa mt hy g ngctlr ln tak, wa fat 0.>87. Mn

wa rlukb tdgt tl twl pjgcas gntar tda bacmegj, mt ms 0.>8. Jat us clksmbar tda fljbak rgtml

clkiufgta. Rda fljbak rgtml lccurs tdrlufdlut kgtura. Mt ms mk tda rltgtmlk nrle jagn tl jagn

grlukb tda stae ln g pjgkt, nlr axgepja. Rda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta ms iust tda mkvarsa lntda fljbak rgtml. Mt ms smepjy tda sapgrgtmlk hatwaak jagvas grlukb tda stae ln g pjgkt,

flmkf mk tda ltdar bmractmlk. Mt ms aqugj tl 0.>74 tl tdraa pjgcas gntar tda bacmegj. Jat us

rlukb tdgt tl twl pjgcas gntar tda bacmegj. Rda amfdt rlukbs tda lka tl twl. Rda fljbakrgtml clkiufgta ms tdak 0.>8 rlukbab tl twl pjgcas gntar tda bacmegj. Rdgt ms tda sgea

vgjua gs o mkcragsab hy g ngctlr ln 70, gkb tda sgea vgjua gs tda klvajty rgtmkf nlr 7=>=

mkcragsab hy g ngctlr ln tak. M nmkb tdgt mktarastmkf.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Egrcd 83, 8077

Xagb lk nlr ey prabmctmlk ln Dyparbrmva,


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Pguj Javmkslk, Msggc Gsmelv, gkb Grtdur C.

Cjgroa Mktartwmkab Vmtd Gk Gstrlklears

Xasagrcd.

Hy

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Clpyrmfdt 8070-8077 hy Mgk Hagrbsjay

Clvar Grt Hy Mgk Hagrbsjay


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Rdara ms g cleelk tdragb rukkmkf tdrlufd tda Scmakca Nmctmlk wlros ln Pguj Javmkslk,

Msggc Gsmelv, gkb Grtdur C. Cjgroa.

Mk tda cgsa ln Msggc Gsmelv, wa gra ngr mk tda nutura ln duegkmty. Mk dms Xlhlt Sarmas,

Gsmelv dgs egk egomkf rlhlts wdlsa prlfrgeemkf lkjy gjjlws tdae tl bl tdgt wdmcd ms

fllb nlr duegkmty. Gs g rasujt, tdasa rlhlts, grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca (GM), tgoa gctmlks tdgtprlpaj duegkmty mktl sattjmkf tda Fgjgxy, mk tda rlhlt sarmas, gkb ujtmegtajy sgva

duegkmty gntar tday dgva sattjab tda Fgjgxy gkb egba gk aepmra ln mt (Mk tda Nlukbgtmlk

Sarmas).

Mk tda cgsa ln Pguj Javmkslk, scdljgrs mk tda nutura trgvaj tdrlufd tmea gkb usa cjlkmkf, g

clkcapt rajgtab tl grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca (mt ms tda cragtmkf ln duegk rapjmcgs gs wajj, hut

hmljlfmcgj, klt ajactrlkmc), gkb tda flgj ms tl sgva fragt gkcmakt tdmkoars nrle Fraaca, gkb

tl egkmpujgta avakts mk tda pgst nlr g plsmtmva lutclea nlr tda nutura ln duegkmty, iust gstda rlhlts try tl bl mk tda wlro ln Gsmelv.

Mk tda cgsa ln Grtdur C. Cjgroa, egk ukbarflas g trgksnlregtmlk bua tl g elkljmtd pjgcablk tda ellk gkb agrtd hy axtrgtarrastrmgjs wdl dgva cragtab jmna lk agrtd. Rda elkljmtd msg cleputar. Mt tgoas duegks lk g vlygfa tl ltdar pjgkats mk tda sljgr systae, gkb mk tdamr

trmgjs, duegkmty flas tdrlufd trmgjs tdgt rasujt mk g trgksnlregtmlk nlr tda akbmkf ln tdamr

bapakbakca lk tdamr tacdkljlfy gkb nlr haclemkf gbgptab tl jmna mk tda Qkmvarsa haylkb

Agrtd. Rdgt ms, tda cdgrgctar Bgva Hlwegk hacleas tda Stgrcdmjb mk dms emssmlk tlIupmtar. Rda grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca ms tda sdmp cleputar cgjjab DGJ.

Sl, tda tdragb ms tda sgjvgtmlk ln egk tdrlufd tacdkljlfy, gkb tdamr trgksnlregtmlk tl gkaw duegk pgrgbmfe, wdara tday cgk akb tdamr bapakbakca lk Agrtd gkb gbgpt tl tda

kgtura ln tda Qkmvarsa gs g wdlja.

Gt tda tmea M wgs ragbmkf tdasa klvajs, M wgs blmkf gstrlklemcgj rasagrcd, gkb, tl eyuttar gstlkmsdeakt, ey rajgtmlksdmps M wgs bmsclvarmkf partgmkmkf tl tda Qkmvarsa wara

turkmkf up tmeas gkb vgjuas pmvltgj tl tdasa wlros ln Javmkslk, Gsmelv, gkb Cjgroa.

Nurtdar, M wgs mktarpratmkf eucd ln ey bmsclvarmas hy bavajlpmkf tdae mk tda clktaxt ln

sdlrt nmctmlkgj stlrmas.

Mk ey stlry, Rda Wuastmlk, wa nmkb Grtmnmcmgj Mktajjmfakca ms mk sykc wmtd tda pdgsas ln

tda nmrst gppagrgkca ln tda hrmfdtast stgr Smrmus nlr tda yagr, gkb tda njllbmkf ln tda Kmja

rmvar, wdmcd hrmkfs mk tda Afyptmgk gfrmcujturgj sagslk. Mt ms prasueab hy slea scdljgrstdgt hacgusa tda Afyptmgk cgjakbgr ms mk sykc wmtd tda Kmja-Smrmus cycja, tdamrs hafgk nlur

sucd cycjas gfl.

M tdak rajgta tdgt sykcdrlkmzgtmlk tl gkltdar cgjcujgtmlk tdgt turks up tda tmea wdak tdaoay nmfura ln tda Nlukbgtmlk Sarmas ln Gsmelv hafmks dms prlfrge tl nlukb g cmvmjmzgtmlk

tdgt wmjj sgva tda fgjgxy. Va jgtar nmkb dms gctmlks wara egkmpujgtab mktl hamkf hy rlhlts,

mk lrbar tl sgva mktajjmfakt jmna mk tda fgjgxy hy cragtmkf g vmghja slcmaty nlr mt cgjjab

Fgjgxmg.


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Mk tda cgsa ln Pguj Javmkslk, M wgs egomkf g cgjcujgtmlk tl prabmct wdak egk wlujb

bavajlp dyparbrmva, tdgt akfmka wdmcd clujb tgoa us tl tda stgrs, gkb akb lur bapakbakcalk gk Agrtd tdgt cgkklt tgoa cgra ln duegks nlravar. Rdgt tmea turkab lut tl ha wdak tda

oay scdljgr mk tda wlro hy Pguj Javmkslk, hafgk dar quast tl dajp duegkmty hy trgvajmkf

mktl tda pgst gkb usmkf cjlkmkf, mk pgrt, tl cdgkfa dmstlry nlr tda hattar. M cgk klw lkjy

naaj dar quast tl sgva duegkmty ms flmkf tl ha tdrlufd cdgkfmkf dmstlry tl hrmkf ghlut tdabavajlpeakt ln dyparbrmva, sl duegkmty wmjj kl jlkfar bapakb lk Agrtd gjlka, wdmcd, gs

M dgva sgmb, cgkklt tgoa cgra ln jmna nlravar.

Nmkgjjy, wdara Grtdur C. Cjgroa ms clkcarkab, M nmkb vgjuas mk tda sljgr systae gkb kgturatdgt gra mk dms elkljmtd, gkb M clkkact mt tl grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca ln g slrt, tdgt omkb wdmcd

wlujb ha hgsab lk smjmclk.

M wmjj prasakt, klw, ey wlro tdgt partgmks tl tdasa wrmtars mk tda nljjlwmkf lrbar9

7) Rda Wuastmlk

8) Gbbakbue tl Rda Wuastmlk3) Gsmelvmgk Prabmctmlk Nlr Dyparbrmva2) Grtdur C. Cjgroa gkb Clsemc Grcdgaljlfy


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Rda Wuastmlk


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71

G Scmaktmst dgb humjt g rlhlt mk tda megfa ln duegks gkb

blwkjlgbab tl mt gjj ln duegk oklwjabfa, tdak put nlrwgrb tda

quastmlk tl lur rlhlt, wdgt ms tda hast wa, duegkmty, cgk bl tl

survmva wmtd gk agrtd ln jmemtab raslurcas gkb g smtugtmlk wdara

ltdar wlrjbs jmoa agrtd, mn tday axmst, wlujb tgoa fakargtmlks tlragcd.

Rda rlhlt hafgk dms gkswar, M clktakb tdgt tda sarmas ln avakts

tdgt uknljbab lk agrtd lvar tda yagrs smkca tda dajmgcgj rmsmkf ln

Smrmus nlur Sltdmc cycjas gfl mk Afypt ln 2828 H.C., tda prasueab

hafmkkmkf ln tda Afyptmgk cgjakbgr, wara gjj eagkt tl ha, gs tda

clkcaptmlk ln tda plssmhmjmty ln ey axmstakca ms mk pdgsa wmtd tdlsa

cycjas gkb ms clkkactab tl sucd clkstgkts ln kgtura gs tda spaab lnjmfdt gkb bykgemc rgtmls jmoa tda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta.

Rda scmaktmst gsoab, Gra ylu sgymkf duegks, gjj duegks smkca

slea smx tdlusgkb yagrs gfl dgva haak g tllj ln slea dmfdar nlrca

tl hrmkf ylu ghlut, lur gctmlks hlukb tl tda turkmkf ln pjgkats

uplk tdamr gxms, gkb tda structura ln kgtura0

Iujmgk yagrs, mk tda Sltdmc Cycja.

Ey lrmfmks fl hgco tl tda nlregtmlk ln stgrs gkb tda jgws tdgt

flvark tdae.

Gs ylu oklw, tda ajaeakts wara egba hy stgrs, dagvmar ajaeakts

nlrfab mk tdamr mktarmlr nrle jmfdtar ajaeakts. Dajmue fgva rmsa tl

lxyfak gkb kmtrlfak, gkb sl nlrtd. Avaktugjjy tda stgrs egba

smjmclk, pdlspdlrus, gkb hlrlk, wdmcd gjjlw nlr mktafrgtab

cmrcumtry, tda hgsms ln wdmcd egoas ea nukctmlk.


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7>

Plsmtmva typa smjmclk ms egba hy blpmkf smjmclk, tda egmk ajaeakt

ln sgkb, wmtd tda ajaeakt hlrlk. Kafgtmva typa smjmclk ms egba hy

blpmkf smjmclk wmtd pdlspdlrus. Va ilmk tda twl typas mk bmnnarakt

wgys tl egoa bmlbas gkb trgksmstlrs tdgt wa nlre lk smjmclk cdmps

tl egoa tda segjj cmrcumtry tdgt egoas ea nukctmlk.

Iust gs tda fljbak rgtml ms mk tda rltgtmlk ln jagvas ghlut tda stae

ln g pjgkt, lr mk tda damfdt ln g duegk clepgrab tl tda bmstgkca

nrle tda sljas ln tdamr naat tl tdamr kgvaj, gk axprassmlk ln mt ms mk

ey cmrcumtry.

Va tgoa tda faleatrmc eagk ln tda eljgr egss ln hlrlk gkb

pdlspdlrus, gkb wa bmvmba tdgt rasujt hy tda eljgr egss lnsmjmclk.

Da hafgk wrmtmkf lk pgpar9

!("#$)/Sm 5 !(30.=6#70.47)/84.0= 5 0.>1

Va tgoa tda dgrelkmc eagk hatwaak tda eljgr egssas ln hlrlk

gkb pdlspdlrus gkb bmvmba tdgt hy tda eljgr egss ln smjmclk.

8(30.=6)(70.47)/(30.=6+70.47) 5 7>.08>

7>.08>/Sm 5 7>.08>/84.0= 5 0.16

Gkb wa tgoa tda grmtdeatmc eagk hatwaak tdasa twl rasujts.

(0.>1 + 0.16)/8 50.>7

0.>7 gra tda nmrst twl bmfmts mk tda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta.

Rda scmaktmst sgmb, M ukbarstgkb ylur plmkt, hut ylu ranarrab tl tda

dajmgcgj rmsmkf ln Smrmus.


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Rda rlhlt gkswarab9 ]as, hgco tl tdgt. Rda agrtd lrhmt ms kagrjy g

parnact cmrcja, sl wa cgk usa c58%r tl cgjcujgta tda bmstgkca tda

agrtd flas grlukb tda suk mk g yagr. Rda agrtd lrhmtgj rgbmus ms lk

tda gvargfa 7.2=1=6=A4 omjleatars, sl

(8)(3.72)(7.2=1=6=A4) 5 =.3=A4 oe

Rda bmstgkca jmfdt trgvajs mk g yagr, lka ravljutmlk ln tda agrtd

grlukb tda suk ms =.2>A78 omjleatars.

Rda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta ln tdgt ms

gkb da wrlta9

(0.>74)(=.2>A78 oe) 5 1.4A78 oe

Va wrmta tda aqugtmlk9

(=.3=A4 oe/yr)(x) 5 1.4A78 oe

Rdms fmvas tda x ms >,766 yagrs.

Gs M sgmb, tda nlurtd dajmgcgj rmsmkf ln Smrmus, gfl mk tda Sltdmc

Cycja, wdak tda Kmja njllbab, wgs 2828 H.C. Da wrlta9

>,766 yagrs 2,828 yagrs 5 7=31 G.B.

Mk 7=36 Gjgk Rurmkf puhjmsdab dms pgpar nlukbmkf tda nmajb ln

grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca, gkb Rdalblsmus Blhzdgksoy axpjgmkab dlw

avljutmlk wlros. Rdasa twl pgpars wara puhjmsdab g jmttja gntar tda

tmea tda agrtd dgb trgvajab tda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta ln g jmfdt

yagr smkca lur 2,828 H.C., mk mts ilurkay grlukb tda suk. Rdasa

pgpars gra gt tda dagrt ln wdgt ylu gkb M gra.


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Mn ylur quastmlk ms sdlujb rlhlts rapjgca duegks, tdmko ln mt elra

gs wa gra tda kaxt stap mk duegk avljutmlk, klt g rapjgcaeakt, wa

wara egba mk ylur megfa, hut klt tl raqumra nllb lr gmr, gkb wa

cgk wmtdstgkb taepargtura axtraeas. Va tdmko gkb dgva gwgrakass

ln lur hamkf, gkb wa cgk egoa tda jlkf vlygfa tl tda stgrs. Mtwlujb saae mt ms up tl us tl nmfura lut wdy ylu wara tda tlljs tl

hrmkf us ghlut, gkb wdy wa gra gk uknljbmkf ln tda ukmvarsa mk

wdmcd ylu wara g stap mk dgrelky wmtd mts mkkar wlromkfs nrle tda

nlregtmlk ln tda stgrs, tdamr plsmtmlks gkb gppgrakt hrmfdtkass gkb

tda spmkkmkf ln tda agrtd gkb mts eltmlk grlukb tda suk.


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7=

Gbbakbue tl Rda Wuastmlk


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80

Jalkgrb clksmbarab tda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta wmtd raspact tl tda

Afyptmgk cgjakbgr mk dms stlry Rda Wuastmlk, da tdlufdt da

wlujb clksmbar tda fljbak rgtml gs wajj. Da wrlta9

M bacmbab tl clksmbar klw, klt tda fljbak rgtml clkiufgta, hut tdafljbak rgtml mtsajn, wdmcd ms tda mkvarsa ln mts clkiufgta, oklwmkf

tdgt mt wlujb tgoa us sleawdara mktl tda nutura.

Rda fljbak rgtml ms 7.>74 tl tdraa pjgcas gntar tda bacmegj.

Rda fljbak rgtml ln g jmfdt yagr ms9

(7.>74)(=.2>A78 oe) 5 7.13A73 oe

gkb

(=.3=A4 oe/yr)x 5 7.13A73

x 5 7>,8=2 yagrs

7>,8=2 yagrs 2,828 yagrs 5 78,018 G.B.

Rdgt ms gntar tda agrtd dgs trgvajab g fljbak rgtml ln g jmfdt yagr

smkca tda nlukbmkf ln tda Afyptmgk cgjakbgr ms tda yagr 78,018. Gs

mt turks tdms wgs tda gelukt ln yagrs mktl tda Fgjgctmc Arg wdak tda

caktrgj cdgrgctar, Dgrm Sajblk, mk Gsmelvs Nlukbgtmlk jmvab gkb

ms grlukb tda tmea da cragtab Rda Nlukbgtmlk, g slcmaty tdgt wlujb

hrmkf g kaw lrbar tl tda Fgjgxy.


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Gsmelvmgk Prabmctmlk Nlr Dyparbrmva


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88

Ey mbag ms tdgt tda fragt scmakca nmctmlk wrmtars gra tgppmkf mktl

sleatdmkf wdak tday wrmta tdgt ms g klk-nmctmlk trutd. Da dgb ragb

Rda Pjlt tl Slcrgtas hy Pguj Javmkslk gkb cgea up nlr gkltdar

tmea tdgt egy ha smfkmnmcgkt.


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M dgb trmab tl prabmct egtdaegtmcgjjy wdak wa wlujb bavajlp dyparbrmva, gkb mtcgea lut iust g yagr gntar tda cdgrgctar, Smarrg Vgtars, mk tda scmakca nmctmlk

pmaca hy Pguj Javmkslk tmtjab Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas wgs dgkbab g kawjybmsclvarab blcueakt gt tda hafmkkmkf ln tda hllo tdgt flt tda wdlja stlry rljjmkf.M wrlta mk ey pmaca Nlracgst Nlr Dyparbrmva9 G Stuby Mk Gsmelvmgk

Psycdldmstlry9

Mt ms g curmlus tdmkf tdgt tda Agrtd ms tda tdmrb pjgkat nrle tda Suk gkb tda tdmrb hrmfdtaststgr mk tda soy ms tda cjlsast tl us gkb vary smemjgr tl tda suk mk g fgjgxy ln g rmcd vgrmaty

ln stgrs. Rdms cjlsast stgr tl us ms g trmpja systae oklwk gs Gjpdg Caktgurm G, H, gkb

Prlxmeg Caktgurm. Gjpdg Caktgurm G ms, jmoa lur Suk g egmk saquakca spactrgj typa F

stgr. Pracmsajy, F8 ^, iust gs ms tda Suk. Mts pdysmcgj cdgrgctarmstmcs gra vary cjlsa tl tdlsaln tda Suk9 7.70 sljgr egssas, 7.06 sljgr bmgeatars, gkb 7.1 sljgr juemklsmtmas. Mt ms

ghsljuta egfkmtuba +2.3. Rda ghsljuta egfkmtuba ln tda Suk ms +2.43.

Mn avar tda lptmlk axmstab nlr duegks tl trgvaj tl tda stgrs, tdms smtugtmlk spagos ln mt,

wdatdar lr klt Gjpdg Caktgurm dgs gk agrtd-jmoa pjgkat mk mts dghmtghja zlka.

Mt dgs haak sgmb tdgt tda hgsa tak pjgca smfkmnmcgkt systae ln wrmtmkf kuehars staes nrle

tda ngct wa dgva tak nmkfars tl clukt lk. Mk sl ngr gs scmakca cgk sgva us, mt cgk bastrly usmk tdgt scmakca ms klt bgkfarlus, hut duegks cgk ha.

Rrgvajmkf tl tda pjgkats ms plssmhja wmtd cdaemcgj nuaj rlcoats, hut trgvajmkf tl tda stgrs ms

gkltdar stlry, hacgusa ln tdamr meeaksa bmstgkcas nrle us, gkb nrle lka gkltdar.

Vdgt gra tda lbbs tdgt lur bavajlpeakt mk tacdkljlfmas wmjj tgoa us tl tda stgrs hanlra wa

bastrly lursajvas nmrst< Mk ltdar wlrbs, wdgt gra tda mktrmksmc lbbs nlr duegkomkb tl

bavajlp tda dyparbrmva hanlra wmtdlut hrmkfmkf ghlut mts lwk akb nmrst84400

(1020)(>)

7

784

7

45

780

70825

71

78450.7767461 " 78%

Va wlujb ha, hy tdms ragslkmkf 78% gjlkf mk tda bavajlpeakt tlwgrbs dyparbrmva.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Iuka 800=

Mn duegk tacdkljlfy dgs avar haak gkytdmkf, mt dgs haak axplkaktmgj, frlwmkf mk

prlplrtmlk tl mtsajn. Mk ltdar wlrbs, twl bavajlpeakts hafat 4, amfdt hafat 7>, gkb smxtaak

hafats 38. Ey frgkbngtdar rlba g dlrsa wdak da wgs g cdmjb, gs g ylukf egk da brlva g

cgr, gkb wdak M okaw dme gs g cdmjb, da sgw duegks jgkb lk tda ellk.


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Mt wgskt jlkf hanlra wa egba cleputars segjj aklufd tdgt palpja clujb oaap mk tdamr

dleas tdgt bmb elra tdgk cleputars bmb mk tda >0s tdgt nmjjab gk aktmra rlle.

Dgvmkf cgjcujgtab tdgt wa gra 78% gjlkf mk bavajlpmkf tda dyparbrmva, wa cgk usa tda

aqugtmlk nlr kgturgj frlwtd tl astmegta wdak wa wmjj dgva dyparbrmva. Mt ms ln tda nlre9

x(t) 5 x0a

ot

t ms tmea gkb o ms g frlwtd rgta clkstgkt wdmcd wa eust bataremka tl sljva tda aqugtmlk.

Mk 7=>= Kamj Grestrlkf hacgea tda nmrst egk tl wgjo lk tda ellk. Mk 800= tda AurlpagkSpgca Gfakcy jgukcdab tda Darscdaj gkb Pjgkco tajasclpas tdgt wmjj saa hgco tl kagr tda

hafmkkmkf ln tda ukmvarsa. 800=-7=>= ms 20 yagrs. Rdms gjjlws us tl wrmta9

78% 5ao(20)

jlf 78 5 20o jlf 8.674

0.08>=6=137 5 0.2328 o

o50.0>87

Va klw cgk wrmta9

x(t) 5 a(0.0>87)t

700% 5 a(l.0>87)t

jlf 700 5 (0.0>87) t jlf a

t 5 62 yagrs

7=>= + 62 yagrs 5 8023

Lur ragslkmkf wlujb mkbmcgta tdgt wa wmjj dgva dyparbrmva mk tda yagr 8023.

Stuby sueegry9

7. Va dgva g 60% cdgkca ln bavajlpmkf dyparbrmva wmtdlut bastrlymkf lursajvas

nmrst.8. Va gra 78% gjlkf tda wgy mk bavajlpeakt ln dyparbrmva.3. Va wmjj dgva dyparbrmva mk tda yagr 8023, pjus lr emkus.

Smarrg Vgtars wgs dgkbab tda kawjy bmsclvarab blcueakt mk 8028.


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Gsmelvmgk dyparbrmva prabmctmlk9

Vdak M egba ey prabmctmlk nlr tda bavajlpeakt ln dyparbrmva gkb mt cgea lut tl ha

wdak Smarrg Vgtars wgs dgkbab tda kawjy bmsclvarab blcueakt mk Pguj Javmkslks Rda

Pjlt tl Sgva Slcrgtas Pguj tljb ea tl pardgps stgrt g tdragb gt Smarrg Vgtars, Rmea

Rrgvajar lk ngcahllo gkb M bmb. Da gjsl suffastab gkltdar pjgca, wdara da wlujb hahadmkb ea mk ey banaksa. M dasmtgtab, hacgusa M sgw tdms cgjcujgtmlk mktumtmvajy. Rdgt ms, M

ukbarstllb mt, hut klt gjj ln mt mk wlrbs. M ge nmkgjjy ghja tl axpjgmk mt, gkb M ge nujjy

gwgra gkylka dgs tl banakb g tdasms ln gky omkb, tdgt, mt ms pgrt ln tda mktajjactugj prlcass.

M gjragby oklw tda quastmlks tdgt wlujb dgva haak gsoab mn M dgb plstab tl tda frlup Pgujsuffastab. M ge klw prapgrab tl gkswar tdae gjj hy axpjgmkmkf axgctjy wdgt M wgs up tl.

M gssuea dara ylu dgva ragb Gsmelvmgk Prabmctmlk Nlr Dyparbrmva mk Rda Javmkslk-

Gsmelv-Cjgroa Pdakleaklk.

Rda nlrcas gfgmkst us bavajlpmkf dyparbrmva egoa us stgrt nrle hadmkb (gt kafgtmva tdraa)

hut wa blkt trgvaj hgco, wa iust stgrt nrle hadmkb. Rdaranlra mt ms 6 staps nrle kafgtmva

tdraa tl tda bastmkgtmlk, plsmtmva nlur (Gjpdg Caktgurm ms cjlsa tl nlur jmfdt yagrs gwgygkb M rlukb mt tl tdgt hacgusa mk g rgkble wgjo wdlja kuehar staps gra egba). Mk tdargkble wgjo tdara gra 70 staps mk tltgj. Kafgtmva tdraa cleas nrle 6+3570. Va bmvmba

savak hy tak tdak eujtmpjy hy 700 tl clkvart tl parcakt nlr tda parcakt cdgkca tl gttgmk

dyparbrmva hy tda prabmctab bgta.

Mk tda cgjcujgtmlk wdara M tgoa tda jlf ln 78% mt ms hacgusa mt ms aqugj tl 0.78 (klregjjy

ylu clkvart parcakt tl mts bacmegj aqumvgjakt tdak tgoa tda jlf). Blmkf tda cgjcujgtmlk

jmoa tdms, jlf% ukmts gra pmcoab up. Mk tda saclkb dgjn ln tda cgjcujgtmlk tda jlf% ukmts grajlst gkb wa fat yagrs nlr tda ukmts ln tda gkswar. Mn wa brlppab tda parcakt smfk mk hltd

pgrts ln tda cgjcujgtmlk, wa wlujb fat zarl nlr yagrs tl dyparbrmva hacgusa wa wlujb

dgva tl tgoa tda jlf ln 7 mkstagb ln 700 mk tda saclkb dgjn ln tda cgjcujgtmlk.

Rdms cgjcujgtmlk usas Gjpdg Caktgurm hacgusa mt ms tda cjlsast stgr systae tl us gkb mts

prmegry ms gjelst axgctjy jmoa tda suk mk smza, egss, juemklsmty gkb taepargtura (spactrgj

cjgss). Hacgusa ln tdgt, tda cgjcujgtmlk hafs tl ha blka. Rda prlhghmjmtmas gra sat aqugj tl

iuep tlwgrbs gkb gwgy nlr saksa ln sgtmsnymkf tdgt eystmcgj saksa clkcarkmkf tdapdakleaklk ln sleatdmkf dgvmkf gk aqugj cdgkca tl fl amtdar wgy. Rda prlhghmjmty ln

iuepmkf mk lka bmractmlk cgk ha egba elra tdgk tda ltdar. Sattmkf tda prlhghmjmtmas gs

sucd wlujb ha bataremkab hy gkgjysms ln tda stgta ln wlrjb gnngmrs, sleatdmkf tdgt wa

cgkklt avgjugta kuearmcgjjy gs gk axgct scmakca mk prasakt bgys. Rda rgkble wgjo wgsblka mk tak aqugj staps hacgusa ln lur hgsa tak cluktmkf systae gkb tda mbag tdgt wa egy

dgva tdgt hacgusa wa dgva 70 nmkfars tl clukt lk. Rdms M najt wgs haffmkf tl ha gbbabmktl tda cgjcujgtmlk. Gs wajj, egomkf tda tak iueps lka jmfdt yagr agcd, hacgusa g jmfdt

yagr ms tda bmstgkca jmfdt trgvajs mk tda tmea mt tgoas nlr tda agrtd tl egoa lka ravljutmlkgrlukb tda suk, gkb jmfdt spaab ms g kgturgj clkstgkt. Gjj mk gjj M wgs hrmkfmkf gjj ln tda

kgturgj ngctlrs tlfatdar mk lka cgjcujgtmlk tdgt wgs, gs M sgmb, haffmkf tl ha blka. Mt fgva

g tmea wdak tda pdmjlslpdar ln pdmjlslpdars, Slcrgtas, wgs tl ha sgvab (Pguj Javmkslk,

Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas), gkb tda tmea tdgt dyparbrmva gctugjjy wgs mkvaktab mk tdaCjgssmc wlro hy Msggc Gsmelv, M, Xlhlt. Mgk Hagrbsjay Egy 7>, 8077


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Jllomkf Gt Dyparbrmva Prabmctmlk Nlregjjy

Ey ragslkmkf mk cgjcujgtmkf tda tmea wdak wa dgva dyparbrmva wgs tl usa tda kgturgjfrlwtd aqugtmlk x(t)5(x\0)a[ot.

Vdara o wgs tda vajlcmty ln bavajlpeakt, lr parcakt bavajlpeakt par yagr. Mk lrbar

tl fat g klk-zarl kuehar, M wrlta

78%5a[ot

gs lpplsab tl

(0.78)5a[ot

wdara t wgs 20 yagrs bua tl ragslkmkf mk ey pgpar. Mk sljvmkf sucd gk aqugtmlk ylu

clkvart 78% tl (0.78) hanlra ylu tgoa tda jlf. Mn M dgb blka tdgt, M wlujb dgva tgoak tdajlf ln 7 mkstagb ln 700 mk tda saclkb dgjn ln tda cgjcujgtmlk, wdmcd wlujb dgva fmvak 0

yagrs tl dyparbrmva, hacgusa jlf (7) 5 0.

Ey ragslkmkf wgs, wamrbjy

(0.78) 5 78% 5 (78/700)(700) 5 78

Mk ltdar wlrbs 0.78 ms tda sgea gs 78 mn ylu usa tda sgea stgkbgrb tl tda saclkb dgjnln tda cgjcujgtmlk9 7 5 700% 5 (700/700)(700) 5 700.

Hut klw M ukbarstgkb wdgt tdms eagks mk tares ln tda nlregj tragteakt ln tda kgturgjfrlwtd aqugtmlk. Mt eagks9

Mn x(t) 5 (x\0)a[ot

Rdak M dgva tgoak x\0 5 7/700

Hacgusa M dgva wrmttak

785a[ot mkstagb ln (0.78) 5 a[ot

Vdmcd egoas saksa, hacgusa x\0 ms tda stgrtmkf plmkt mk bavajlpeakt. Sl, mk ltdar wlrbs

7/700 5 x\0 eagks jgkbmkf lk tda ellks wgs tda nmrst stap lut ln 700. Parnact. M dgbsmepjy jat x\0 57 hacgusa M wgktab tl egoa lur frlwtd frlw gs a, axplkaktmgjjy, hacgusa

a ms g kgturgj clkstgkt. Rdms wlroab hacgusa M dgb mkcragsab tda jant smba ln tda aqugtmlkhy g ngctlr ln 700 mk hltd mkstgkcas. Rda twl eatdlbs gra aqumvgjakt gkb fmva tda sgea

gkswar, hut gpprlgcdmkf tdms nlregjjy fmvas g hattar ukbarstgkbmkf ln wdgt ms flmkf lk. Rdms fmvas g yagr gntar Smarrg Vgtars ms dgkbab tda egkuscrmpt tdgt stgrts dar gbvaktura

mk Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas hy Pguj Javmkslk (wdmcd M wgs clmkcmbaktgjjy ragbmkf gt

tda tmea ln blmkf tda cgjcujgtmlk) gkb g yagr hanlra tda tmea Gsmelv prliacts nlr

dyparbrmva mk M, Xlhlt, wdmcd M wgs clmkcmbaktgjjy ragbmkf gt tda tmea. Mgk HagrbsjayIuka 8, 8077


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8=

Grtdur C. Cjgroa gkb Clsemc Grcdgaljlfy


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Elkljmtd

Grtdur C. Cjgroa's elkljmtd turkab lut tl ha g cleputar put lk Agrtd hyaxtrgtarrastrmgjs gkb Rda Ellk tl fmva us gk avljutmlkgry kubfa wdak wakaabab mt gkb tl elkmtlr us. Mt dgb tda bmeaksmlks ln 7 hy 2 hy =, tda squgras ln

7, 8, gkb 3. 7+2 5 1. Rda damfdt ms =. M dgva nlukb tdgt =/1 (wdmcd ms 7.4) lccurstdrlufdlut kgtura mk tda grags dajb elst sgcrab tl egk blwk tdrlufd dmstlry,tda suk, tda ellk, fljb, smjvar, wgtar gkb gmr9

7. Mn wa clepgra tda egss ln gmr tl tda egss ln wgtar gkb mkcragsa tdgt hy gngctlr ln tda duegk hlby taepargtura tl tda nraazmkf taepargtura ln wgtar, wafat g vgjua tdgt ms = clepgrab tl 1, wdmcd ms 7.4.

8. Mn wa clepgra tda egss ln gk gtle ln fljb tl gk gtle ln smjvar, mt ms =clepgrab tl 1 (clepgrmkf tdamr eljgr egssas).

3. Mn wa clepgra tda rgbmus ln tda suk, tdgt ms tda bmstgkca nrle mts caktar tl mtssurngca, tl tda bmstgkca nrle tda caktar ln tda agrtd tl tda caktar ln tda ellk, mtms = clepgrab tl nmva.

= clepgrab tl 1 ms kmka nmntds (=/1) wdmcd ms aqugj tl 7.4

Fjgkcmkf gt ey bgtg tghjas gkb nmkb tdgt mn wa tgoa tda bmstgkca ln tda pjgkatSgturk tl tda suk gs = (cjlsast gpprlgcd), tdak tda bmstgkca tl tda pjgkat Iupmtarnrle tda suk ms nmva (cjlsast gpprlgcd). Mk ngct tdms wgy ln eagsurmkf bmstgkcasputs tda agrtd axgctjy gt 7 ukmt nrle tda suk. Rdms ms mktarastmkf, hacgusa Iupmtargkb Sgturk, gsmba nrle hamkf tda "embbja cdmjbrak" ln tda sljgr systae, pjgkats 1gkb > ln g pjgkatgry ngemjy ln = lr 70 bapakbmkf lk wdatdar lr klt ylu clksmbartda gstarlmb hajt g pjgkat tdgt bmb klt nlre, gkb gkytdmkf nlukb haylkb Pjutl gpjgkatlmb, tdasa pjgkats cgrry tda egilrmty ln egss ln tda sljgr systae,smfkmnmcgktjy, gkb tdus aehlby elst ln tda bykgemcs ln mts nlregtmlk.

M dgva gjsl nlukb tdgt tda hgsms ln cleputars gkb GM (grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca), wdmcdms blpab smjmclk, dgs tda fljbak rgtml mk tda eagks ln mts cleplkakts. Rda fljbakrgtml ms racurrakt tdrlufdlut jmna hacgusa ln tda bykgemcs mt dgs tl lnnar. Blpab mssmjmclk, pdlspdlrus, gkb hlrlk. Rdasa gra kgturgjjy lccurrmkf ajaeakts, egba hykgtura, kgeajy nlrfab mk stgrs. Mn P ms pdlspdlrus, H ms Hlrlk, gkb Sm ms smjmclk(faleatrmc eagk hy Sm)9

sqrt(P*H)/Sm5sqrt(30.=6*70.47)/(84.0=)50.>1

gkb jat us tgoa tda dgrelkmc eagk hatwaak pdlspdlrus gkb hlrlk gkb bmvmba mthy smjmclk9

(8*(30.=6*70.47)/(30.=6+70.47))/84.0= 50.16


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37

Klw jat us tgoa tda grmtdeatmc eagk ln tdasa twl kuehars9

(0.>1+0.16)/850.>7

wdmcd gra tda nmrst twl bmfmts mk tda fljbak rgtml.

Rda fljbak rgtml ms 7.>74 tl tdraa bacmegj pjgcas. Kltmca tdgt tda 8kb gkb tdmrbbmfmts gntar tda bacmegj gra 7 gkb 4, tda twl bmfmts mk =/1. Rda 7 gkb > gbb up tl 6,tda gvargfa ln kmka gkb nmva, tda > emkus tda lka ms lur nmva, gkb, tda amfdt pjustda lka ms lur kmka.Sl assaktmgjjy, wa dgva clkkactab tda elkljmtd ln Grtdur C.Cjgroa wmtd kgtura, gkb cleputars gkb grtmnmcmgj mktajjmfakca, mktafrgtab cmrcumts,trgksmstlrs, bmlbas (blpab smjmclk), wmtd tda elkljmtd.


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38

Clkcjusmlk

Rda Scmakca Nmctmlk ln Pguj Javmkslk, Msggc Gsmelv, gkb Grtdur C. Cjgroa gratmab up mk Duegks egomkf Duegks, wdatdar rlhlts lr cjlkas, nlr tda purplsa lnsgvmkf duegkmty. Gkb ey gstrlklemcgj bmsclvarmas gs M fl tdrlufd jmna egomkf

tdae, saae tl ha tmab up mk tdamr stlrmas.


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33

Rda Eystmcgj Ajaeakts Ln

Rda Nmctmlk-XagjmtyAktgkfjaeakt


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32

Saabs

Saamkf tda elvma "Pmrgtas" M tdara sgw g sdmp wmtd tda sag flb Kaptuka,

trmbakt mk dgkb, eluktab tl tda nrlkt. ]agrs jgtar tdms megfa saaeab tl sgy mt

eagkt sleatdmkf partgmkmkf tl tda Qkmvarsa gkb tda Pjgkat Kaptuka. Ey

gstrlklemcgj rasagrcd mkbaab, yagrs jgtar, akbab gt tdgt pjgkat, wmtd ey

Kaptuka aqugtmlk.

Nmkgjjy, gs M dgb klt egba gky prlfrass nlr g wdmja, gkltdar megfa struco

ea. Mt wgs wdak M sgw g hllo cgjjab "Pjutlkmg" mk tda parslkgj jmhrgry ln

Pguj Javmkslk, mk g elvma ghlut dms hllo, "Hadmkb Rda Pjlt tl Sgva

Slcrgtas". Mts gfa, gkb rabbmsd-pmko clvar raemkbab ea ln ey hllo "Rda

Javmkslk-Gsmelv-Cjgroa Pdakleaklk", gs mt ms g nukoy clvar basmfkab hy

eysajn ln g rlcoat trgvajmkf mk g pmko Qkmvarsa. Ey Hllo mtsajn ms, mk pgrt,

ghlut Pguj Javmkslk's "Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas". Gkb hacgusa Pjutlkmgbarmvas nrle Pjutl, wdmcd ms g pjgkat, lka M dgb yat tl clksmbar mk tda

rasagrcd nlr tdms prliact, mt ms ghlut Pjutlkmg.

Ey hllo, sl ngr, akbs mk g pdakleaklk jmkomkf Javmkslk, Gsmelv, gkb

Cjgroa, tl tda tmeawgva tdalry ln Rarakca EcOakkg, wdmcd wgs mkspmrab hy

dms tgomkf dgjjucmklfakmc psmjlcyhmk eusdrlles mk g iukfja mk Slutd

Gearmcg ukbar Sdgegkmstmc mkstructmlk.

Gntar rasagrcdmkf tda wlro Pjutlkmg gt wmompabmg, M nlukb Pjutlkmg ms klt iustg scmakca nmctmlk klvaj hy g Xussmgk Scmaktmst, wrmttak mk 7=71, hut ms g typa

ln dgjjucmklfakmc psmjlcyhmk eusdrlle cgjjab psmjlcyhmk pjutlkmg (cleelk

kgea egfmc eusdrlles).

Smkca tmeawgva ms ghlut mktarclkkactabkass, gkb sl ms ey hllo, M tdlufdt M

wlujb plst tdms lccurrakca dara.

Smkca mktarclkkactabkass grmsas mk ey rasagrcd partgmkmkf tl Pguj Javmkslk's

"Rda Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas", gkb dms hllo ms ghlut tmea trgvaj, M ge

hafmkkmkf tl ukbarstgkb wdy9 mktarclkkactabkass dgs avarytdmkf tl bl wmtdtmea.

Mgk Hagrbsjay

Gprmj 76, 8077


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Gprmj 80, 8077

Pjutlkmg grrmvab mk tda egmj Gprmj 80, 8077. M stgrtab ragbmkf mt lk tdgt bgy.

Rda hllo hafmks wmtd g tage ln nlur scmaktmsts jagvmkf Elsclw nlr gk Grctmc

axpabmtmlk lk Gprmj 80 (tda sgea bgta). M ge rmfdt mk pdgsa wmtd tdamr

gbvaktura. M gjsl lrbarab Rda Smjo Clba hy Pguj Javmkslk lk Gprmj 80, 8077,

ragjmzmkf gntar dgvmkf racamvab gk a-egmj nrle Gegzlk.cle tdgt mt sdmppab

lut lk Gprmj 80 tdgt tdms hllo wgs mk sykc wmtd Pjutlkmg, M lrbarab Rda

Smjo Clba hacgusa Pguj Javmkslks Pjlt Rl Sgva Slcrgtas wgs pgrt ln tda

nmctmlk-ragjmty aktgkfjaeakt M dgb haak axparmakcmkf.


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3>

Grcdmeabas Pjutlkmue

Dgvmkf nmkmsdab tda hllo Pjutlkmg wdmcd jagb ea tl clksmbar tda

jgst pjgkat Pjutl, gelkf ltdar tdmkfs gjragby eaktmlkab, M

bacmbab tl plst ey wlro tl tda bmscussmlk frlup scm.gstrl, g fllfjafrlup. Sleatdmkf M dgb plstplkab nlr yagrs, gkb tdlufdt egyha

wlujb klt ha g fllb mbag gt gjj bl tl tda fmvak tda kgtura ln tdms

wlro. Meeabmgtajy plstab ghlva ey wlro wgs tda wlro ln gk

gutdlr wdlsa pak kgea ms Grcdmeabas Pjutlkmue. Rdms

meeabmgtajy fgva ea gkltdar gspact ln tda wlrb Pjutl. Mk dms

tdalry, cgjjab Rda Gtle Rltgjmty Rdalry, da sdlws tdgt tda

ajaeakt 837 Pjutlkmue bascrmhas tda eyrmgb gspacts ln tda

Qkmvarsa. Pracmsajy, tda kuehars ln ajactrlk sdajjs, gkb suhsdajjsln tdgt msltlpa ln pjutlkmue prlvmba rgtmls tdgt bascrmha

gpprlxmegtmlks tl tda vgjua ln pm, aujars kuehar a, tda

hgcofrlukb rgbmgtmlk ln tda ukmvarsa, tda nmka structura clkstgkt

gkb gk axpjgkgtmlk nlr tda megfmkgry kuehar, m.

Nurtdarelra, M nlukb mt mktarastmkf tdgt tda msltlpa ln pjutlkmue

tdgt blas tdms ms 837, hacgusa klt lkjy blas ey wlro hagr g

clkkactmlk tl tda hllo Pjutlkmg, mt gjsl hagrs g clkkactmlk tl

80079 G Spgca Lbyssay gkb mts saquajs hacgusa tda elkljmtd mk

tdgt hllo dgs prlplrtmlks tdgt gra tda squgras ln 7, 8, gkb 3 wdmcd M

dgva axpjgmkab rajgta tl ey bmsclvary ln =/1 tdrlufdlut kgtura gkb

7, 8, 3 gra tda bmfmts mk 837 Pjutlkmue. Lkca gfgmk, tda tmea tdgt M

bl spacmnmc wlros gkb ragb ltdar wlros, M nmkb ey jmna aktgkfjab

wmtd jmtargtura, kl bluht nrle ey trmps tl Eaxmcl gkb Mtgjy, wdlsa

jmtargtura ms lntak hgsab lk tdms pdakleaklk tdgt ms g pgrt ln jmna mk

tdlsa cluktrmas. Rda tdmkf ms tl nmkb ey wgy lut ln mt, gkb gpprlgcd

gcgbaemcs nrle tdgt eatdlbljlfy M prgctmcab wdmja g stubakt gtRda Qkmvarsmty ln Lraflk gkb wlromkf gt tda stgta lhsarvgtlry.

Pardgps tdak M cgk saa ey wlro mk g kaw jmfdt, lka wdara mt ms g

pgrt ln ea gs lpplsab tl ea hamkf g pgrt ln mt.

Mgk Hagrbsjay Egy 7>, 8077


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Pgpars mk wdmcd M ge jmstab gs cl-gutdlr (Hagrbsjay M.S.)

7=4>\Oaep I. C.? Dakslk F. B.? Orgus B. I.? Cgrrljj J. C.?Hagrbsjay M. S.? Rgogfmsdm O.? Iufgou I.? Egtsulog E.? Jamhlwmtz

A. E.? Egzad R.? Eakbajslk D.\SS 2339 G > yagrpdltleatrmc raclrb\Gstrlpdys. I. 301, 401 (7=4>)

Bapgrteakt ln Pdysmcs, Qkmvarsmty ln Lraflk

7=4>\Oaep I. C.? Dakslk F. B.? Orgus B. I.? Hagrbsjay M. S.?

Cgrrljj J. C.? Bukcgk B. O.\^grmghja pljgrmzgtmlk gkbgctmvmty mk Grcturus\Gstrlpdys. I. Jatt. 307, J31 (7=4>)

Bapgrteakt ln Pdysmcs, Qkmvarsmty ln Lraflk

7=4>\Oaep I. C.? Dakslk F. B.? Orgus B. I.? Hagrbsjay I. S.?

Cgrrljj J. C.? Goa R. H.? Smelk R.? Cljjmks F. V.\ApsmjlkGurmfga9 Pljgrmzgtmlk, jmfdt curvas, gkb faleatry ln tda7=487=43 acjmpsa\Gstrlpdys. I. Jatt. 300, J77 (7=4>)

Bapgrteakt ln Pdysmcs, Qkmvarsmty ln Lraflk, Aufaka


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fiction-reality entanglement: levinson, asimov, and clarke

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