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Not too much to add to as the Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) pattern is still in play and still the preferred Elliot Wave

Count (70%) until proven otherwise; especially since price overlapped with the recent SPX2588 high. Nano-d may

have had enough at SPX2584 already, and either the dotted or the solid trend lines are in play in defining the EDT.

Note that this d-wave may still be underway and trying to target the solid trendline. Hard to tell, especially since it’s

all rather overlapping price-action and we simple have to take it day by day. But, for now, there’s nothing yet to

suggest the EDT is not operable. A break over SPX2610 will change my POV to the alternate count; and as long as

price remains over SPX2566 there’s absolutely 0 reason to go short. Yes Z E R O reason. The alternate count is the

set of 1st and 2nd waves (nano-i, ii, pico-1, 2). This count is confirmed with a blast off soon to >SPX2610. This count is

obviously off the table with a trade below SPX2566.

Figure 1. SPX-1min chart. A) preferred count: EDT underway B) alternate count: regular impulse underway

A: preferred

B: Alternate

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The Technical Indicator (TI) chart of the S&P shows an initial sell signal (red dotted down arrow) as the 3 TIs that

comprise the A.I. all started to point down today. BUT, we need confirmation with a break of all 3 below 80. Until

then; can simple be noise. The RSI5 is still negatively diverging, but increasing, while the MACD still hasn’t given a

buy signal yet (red circle). Not shown here, but the MACD for the DOW has been on a sell since last Wednesday and

it’s sell signal is increasing, suggesting of an upcoming minute-iv correction. Price on the S&P is slowly moving out of

the grey uptrend channel, but still above all important simple moving average (SMAs, from the 5-day to 200-day)

Figure 2. S&P daily TI chart: still in uptrend mode, all TIs back up, but A.I. gave an initial sell signal today.

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Today the NAS dropped out of the EDT pattern shown yesterday, but is still in a smaller uptrend (orange trendlines).

As long as price stays in that channel, the 1.618x extension is simple the next logical target. This Fib-extension can

be reached exactly on November 13, which is the next Fib-based turn date (see weekend updates). Then minor-4

should drop to the 100% extension and that can be reached November 28. I’ve not turn date for then, but it’s not

necessary; not everything is always all the time in sink.

Figure 3. NAS Daily chart: still in uptrend 1.618x extension most likely next.

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Today I wanted to show the RUT (Russell2000, its ETF = IWM), which bottomed exactly at the 38.2% retrace and the

50d SMA as well as did a quick “dip ‘n rip” at the upper black trendline. Since a 5th wave is still “M.I.A.”, this suggest

that wave-iv most likely bottomed today; as 4th wave typically retrace 38.2% of the prior entire 3rd wave. That would

then also make for a nice bull flag (pink pattern) and the bull-flag targets exactly the ideal major-5 = major-1 target

at $1593 ($158ish for the IWM). Does this then suggest the other indices will move higher too? Unclear since the

RUT has been trending down over the past month whereas all other indices have been trending up… So maybe it’s

vice versa now?!

Figure 4. RUT bounced right of 38.2% retrace and 50d SMA. 5th wave up still missing….

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The S&P500’s McClellan Oscillator (MO) ended today at -15, up 5p since yesterday and thus still negative: more

stocks continue to decline than advance. The SPX-SI (Summation Index of the MO) remains on a sell signal, as well

as for all other SIs (DIA-SI, NYA-SI, NDX-SI, NAS-SI), therefore remains in place. Checking prior sell signals since the

Bull off the February 2016 low, there’ve been other occasions where the market simple marched higher on negative

breadth and SI sell signals (black arrows). Hallmark of a strong Bull!? Not shown here, but the SPX-A/D and NDX-A/D

lines (cumulative advancing declining issues) ended right at the prior ATHs today, supporting further upside.

Figure 4. SPX-SI remains on a sell as breadth remains negative.

In conclusion: The current preferred Elliot Wave count remains of an ending diagonal triangle to complete minute-

iii in the SPX2596 +/- 5 region. Under this EW-count, wave-d of the (abcde) triangle may have ended at SPX2584.

Though one more stab lower to SPX2580 and then a rally for wave-e cannot be excluded. The alternate EW-count is

a set of nested 1st and 2nd waves that target SPX2640+. Regardless, as long as price remains above SPX2566, the

trend is up. Long stops for swing traders can be set there. The NAS is still on its way to the 1.618x extension at

$6835, whereas the RUT has likely bottomed for wave-iv/4 at the 50d SMA and 38.2% retrace. $1593 is now ideally

next.

ALOHA

Soul, Ph.D.

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