final project of finance

Sara Aslam Khan100199589BA (HONS) in Business Studies

Modules Leader: Christine Harrop-GriffthsCourse ID: 6AG030Task 2

FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS

1 FINANCIAL STATEMNET ANALYSIS

Table of Contents

i. Companies Description………………………………………..2ii. Food and Drug Retailer Sector of UK……………………....3

iii. Performance over 3 years……………………………..……...6iv. Past Analysis of Companies from FTSE100………..…….10v. Industry Analysis……………………………………………..11

vi. Competitor Analysis……………………………………...….13vii. Altman Z Score……………………………………………....14

viii. Tafflers Z score…………………………………..…………..16ix. Credit Crunch………………………………………………..18x. Prediction……………….……………………………………19

xi. Bibliography…………………………………………………21

“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body - the producers and consumers themselves.”-Herbert Hoover


COMPANIES DESCRIPTION:

TESCO PLC

Tesco Plc (Tesco) is an in-store and online retailer. The company is engaged in the operations of 4,331 multi-format stores including superstore, extra stores, home plus, metro, express and hypermarkets. The company offers a wide array of food and non food products, including clothing, health and beauty products, consumer electronics products and electrical goods, household appliances, home entertainment, stationery, kitchen utensils, soft furnishings and other related products. Tesco also offers several services including travel and flight booking, carbon offsetting, gift card, telecom and financial services. The company has operations in European countries, United States and Asian countries. Tesco Plc is headquartered at Hertfordshire, United Kingdom.

J.SAINSBURY PLC

J Sainsbury plc (J Sainsbury) is engaged in grocery retailing through its supermarkets and convenience stores principally in United Kingdom. The company operates its business through three divisions, namely, retailing stores, financial services and property development. J Sainsbury serves its customers through a chain of 502 supermarkets and 290 convenience stores under the brand Sainsbury`s, and financial services via Sainsbury`s Bank. J Sainsbury offers around 30,000 food and non-food products and services. J Sainsbury plc is headquartered at London, United Kingdom.



Food and Drug Retailer Sector of UK

The above chart represents the current six months update of London Food and Drug Retailer Sector.

Food and Drug Retailers (Risers)

Price Change

Tesco (Tesco) 406p 2%Sainsbury(j)(SBRY) 342.1p 1.21%Morrison(wm)(MRW) 285.2p 0.64%Assura Grp (AGR) 48.25p 0.52%Thornton’s (THT) 81.25 0.46%

If we look at the chart we notices the rise and falls of different companies which deal in food and drug retailers, but looking at each party is not essential, we will only highlight J.Sainsbury and TESCO. Considering their position in the market we observe increase in the share price of TESCO which makes it occupy first place in the Food and Retailer Sector of London. By looking at the main reason we see this is due to the high value of market equity which is Market capitalization consist of £32,677.09m and greater numbers of shares issued 8,048.54m than J.Sainsbury which have 1,871.08m. Another reason could also be why TESCO is places at the first in this sector because it operates internationally where J.Sainsbury remains UK nationwide business only but this not all it is we will further study the major consequences and reasons that why J.Sainsbury is in second place.



Comparison of both Companies with Each Other in Food and Retailer Sector:

In order to obtain more accurate and precise factor we now compared both the companies with each other to get the closer picture and witness the truth that TESCO seems to be performing well in the market than the Sainsbury (j).



Analyst Point of View:

“Market growth for Tesco Plc as it records 2.00% improvement on previous levels. The share started with some lively movement, debuting at 399.7, below the previous session's top mark, and gained further during the day to close up at 406, near the best level of the trading session. On a weekly basis, the stock is trending higher than the FTSE 100. For the moment, therefore, Tesco Plc clearly appeals more to investors than the benchmark”



“Positive results for Sainsbury (J) Plc as it rises 1.21%. The day started well for the share, which began with an opening value of 338.9, below the previous session high, and then continued on the rise during the rest of the session. The analysis of Sainsbury (J) Plc's share price on a weekly basis highlights its bullish trend line, as it outperforms the benchmark. Thus the share is attracting more interest from the market than the index.”

Performance over 3 Years TESCO Plc



TESCO has been compared with the FTSE 100 and it is performing well under the chart as compared to J.Sainsbury.

In Terms Of Price: The motive behind the upright performance of Tesco in the market is due to locating itself in best

positioning into the consumers mind and to provide their consumers the best of their value for

money. Their quality of product range and price are the foremost ingredient to customer satisfaction. The company is committed to make sure the customers get the great deal of variety under the controlled and content budget.

In Terms of Customer Service: The company over the recent years is striving to make their customers believe that they are most

significant for them. Providing them full authority to give their feedback onto their work and the services they are offering them. Constantly remaining in touch has proved to be a key for success and helping them to recognize the need in more appropriate way.

In Terms of Personnel’s: The company relies on their employees and considers them their vital key in achieving market

success because personnel’s enthusiasm helps in delivering first rate service and that is what putting their business forward.

Chairman Statement:



David Reid

“Our success is first of all due to the tremendous effort

Of our employees who continuously strive to improve

Customers shopping experience”

“Listening and responding to customer’s need is at the core of our

Business and has underpinned the excellent progress we have made”

“Full credit must be given to our people for their dedication

And initiative in delivering a first class level of customer satisfaction”

J.Sainsbury Plc.



Now we have compared the Sainsbury (j) chart with the FTSE100 and we scrutinize that it is performing below the FTSE100.

In Terms of Price: In 2009 Sainsbury reported a slowdown in sales due to the tough and difficult consumer

environment has forces to manage their spending more carefully but in 2010 it shows good upward improvement because of Sainsbury’s non-food sales grew more than three times rate of food and its online grocery business.

In Terms of Customer Service Sainsbury’s meal planner menu cards and its five family meals for £20 promotion have helped

consumers looking to save money by cooking from scratch have helped the supermarket attract record numbers of shoppers in 2011.

In Terms of Personnel’s: J.Sainsbury believes that by keeping their personnel’s happy will eventually helps them to make

their customers pleased and contented. So in order to obtain more market share and high position they are working too hard to bring their management into quality organization.

Chairman Statement:“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement.

Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body - the producers and consumers themselves.”-Herbert Hoover


David Tyler

“The Board is pleased with the performance of Sainsbury's over the last year. We delivered good profit growth and underlying earnings per share were up over 12 per cent. Our progress in achieving strategic objectives has been very encouraging, especially in increasing our selling space and widening the range of our complementary non-food offer. At the same time, the values of the organization have continued to underpin everything we do, with our continued focus on customer service and responsible trading and trying best to improve more and more to get the first position in the market”

Past Analysis of Market from FTSE100 Index:Tesco Plc“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement.



Past analysis indicate unchanged and fall in the market performance but sudden upward movement shows the elevated act due to the enhancement in marketing strategies by adding more service counters more varieties in the product line, more extended store opening hours, more easy ways to shop by launching club card which is really working to grab more customers.

J.Sainsbury Plc

2008/09 was a year of recession in the UK. In this very uncertain environment, consumers have naturally been determined to shop around for more value. Some commentators believed that Sainsbury’s would under-perform in these conditions. However, their universal customer appeal and flexibility in meeting customer needs has enabled them to grow their market share and profitability during this period and thus they are performed well in 2010 and further more improvements will prove to be more success from 2011 onwards.

Industry Analysis:



The most influential analytical model for accessing the nature of competition in an industry is Michael Porter’s Five Forces Model. It draws upon Industrial Organization (IO) economics to derive five forces that determine the competitive intensity and therefore attractiveness of a market.

1. Threat of New Entrants :The UK grocery market is primary dominated by few competitors, including four major brands of Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury' and Morrison that possess a market share of 70% and small chains of Somerfield and Waitrose with a further 10%. The grocery market has been transformed into the supermarket-dominated business. Barriers to entry are extremely high in the food retail market due to a number of factors. Majority of large chains have built their power due to operating efficiency, one-stop shopping and major marketing-mix expenditure. This powerful force had a great impact on the small traditional shops, such as butchers, bakers and etc. Hence, nowadays it possesses a strong barrier for new companies who desire to enter the grocery market. For instance, it becomes rather difficult for new entrants to raise sufficient capital because of large fixed costs and highly developed supply chains. This is also evident in huge investments done by large chains such as Tesco and J.Sansbury in advanced technology for checkouts and stock control systems that impact new entrants and the existing ones. Other barriers include economies of scale and differentiation (in the provision of products or services with a higher perceived value than the competition) achieved by Tesco and J.Sainsbury seen in their aggressive operational tactics in product development, promotional activity and better distribution. This is corroborated by the presence of few global supermarkets within UK.


Threat of New Entrants

Bargaining Power of Suppliers

Bargaining Power of Customers

Threat of Substitutes Bargaining Power of Competitors

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_organization


2. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: This force represents the power of suppliers that can be influenced by major grocery chains and that fear of losing their business to the large supermarkets. Therefore, this consolidates further leading positions of stores like Tesco and J.Sainsbury in negotiating better promotional prices from suppliers that small individual chains are unable to match Ritz (2005). In return, UK based suppliers are also threatened by the growing ability of large retailers to source their products from abroad at cheaper deals. The relationship with sellers can have similar effects in constraining the strategic freedom of the company and in influencing its margins. The forces of competitive rivalry have reduced the profit margins for supermarket chains and suppliers.

3. Bargaining Power of Customers: Porter theorized that the more products that become standardized or undifferentiated, the lower the switching cost, and hence, more power is yielded to buyers Porter M. (1980). Buyer power is high in this industry simply due to the presence of so many competitors selling the same products. It is only differentiated in price and consumer loyalty and increasingly on green credentials. Moreover, the switching costs are low for consumers.

As the economy goes further towards recession (O'Doherty 2008) consumers' needs are likely to be given more weight, increasing their power considerably.

4. Threat of Substitute: General substitution is able to reduce demand for a particular product, as there is a threat of consumers switching to the alternatives Porter M. (1980). In the grocery industry this can be seen in the form of product-for-product or the substitute of need and is further weakened by new trends, such as the way small chains of convenience stores are emerging in the industry. In this case Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's are trying to acquire existing small-scale operations and opening Metro and Express stores in local towns and city centers.

5. Bargaining Power of Competitor: The retail market is extremely competitive with a very crowded market. Now, more and more companies are trying to get into non food sectors (Rigby and Killgren 2008) further intensifying the competition. Tesco, Asda, and Morrison's are the other three big supermarket chains in the UK retail sector. All of them have a different competitive advantage over their competitors. Sainsbury's reach in the convenience stores makes it have a larger customer reach whereas large chains as Tesco are accruing large amounts of consumer information that can be used to communicate with the consumer.

o Competitor Analysis “Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement.



36%

19%

13%

6%

4%

2%

19%

Sales

Tesco Sainsburry's(j) Morrison's SomerfieldWaitrose Iceland ASDA

Tesco has increased its share of the grocery market for the first time nearly 2 years after doubling the points accrued to its Club card Loyalty Scheme.

The fastest-growing chain, however, is Morrison’s, up 13% on a year ago and boosted by new stores.

Among the big seven grocers ASDA remains the fastest-growing chain, with sales up 19%.

TNS said, “Tesco would get another boost from the loyalty card in the coming weeks as Club card vouchers are currently being mailed out, putting "coupons in shoppers' hands in the run-up to Christmas".

Last month the grocer's chief executive, Sir Terry Leahy, claimed Tesco had started to regain ground lost to its rivals and the most recent data showed it had overtaken Sainsbury’s in like-for-like growth. His comments prompted Sainsbury's boss Justin King to suggest Leahy was being disingenuous. King said Sainsbury's figures were "significantly better than Tesco's".

The latest TNS 12-week data shows Sainsbury's still growing faster than Tesco at 5.6%, but it is understood that the four-week data now put Tesco ahead.

Altman’s Z score:



The Altman’s Z score is used for predicting the bankruptcy. The model uses the different ratios to predict the probability that whether both firms will go into bankruptcy within two years or will stay healthy, as it will further help to identify corporate defaults and the financial distress status. It will define the financial health of the companies.

Both the companies fall under the Non-Manufacturer Industrial and Emerging Markets.

Z=1.2 x X1+1.4 x X2+3.3 x X3+0.6 x X4+1.0 x X5

Tesco 2010

X1=Working Capital/Total Asset

(11765-16105) / 46023= -4340 / 46023= -0.094300 x 1.2= -0.113160

X2= Retained earnings/Total asset

= 9356 / 46023= 0.203289 x1.4= 0.284605

X3= PBIAT/Total Asset

= 3490 / 46023= 0.075831 x 3.3= 0.250244

X4=Market Capitalization/Book Value of Debt

= £ 32,297.57 (millions) / total liabilities (current + non-current) = £ 32,297.57 / (160155+15327)= £ 32,297.57 / 31342= 1.030488 x 0.6 = 0.618293

X5= Sales/Total Asset



= 56910 / 46023= 1.236555 x1 = 1.236555

Z=X1+X2+X3+X4+X5=2.27

From the above thought-out Z score the TESCO falls under “Safe-Zone” which reflects the company will trade in future on good bases. Although the Company current strength identifies potential health in the market but as it operates outside the UK as well, there might be a chance of shakiness and flux in operating activities, where company needs to put a lot of concern before investing.

J.Sainsbury 2010

X1=Working Capital/Total Asset

= (current assets - current liabilities) / total assets= (1853-2793) /10855= -940 / 10855= -0.086596 x 1.2= -0.103915

X2= Retained earnings/Total asset

= 2963 / 10855= 0.272961 x1.4= 0.382146

X3= PBIAT/Total Asset

= 710 / 10855= 0.065407x 3.3= 0.215845

X4=Market Capitalization/Book Value of Debt

6375.31 (millions) / total liabilities (current + non-current)= 6375.31 / (2793+3096)= 6375.31 / 5889= 1.08257 x 0.6 = 0.649547



X5= Sales/Total Asset

= 19964 / 10855= 1.839152 x1 = 1.839152

Z=X1+X2+X3+X4+X5=2.97

The Altman Z score of J.Sainsbury is obtained 2.97 which is also consider as safe, but if compare with the Tesco plc we observe that J.Sainsbury has grater score. In spite of holding the second place into the food and retailer sector in UK J.Sainsbury seems to be getting on the track to occupy good financial stability than the TESCO. However further studies through credit crunch will identify the external crisis.

Tafflers Z score:

J.Sainsbury 2010

X1 = Profit before Tax/Current Liabilities

= 733/2793

= 0.2624

= 0.2624 x 0.53

= 0.139072

X2= Current Asset / Total Liabilities

= 1797/ 5889

= 0.3015

= 0.3051 x 0.13

= 0.4452

=0.039663

X3 =Current Liabilities / Total Asset



= 2793/10855

= 0.2573 x 0.18

= 0.046314

X4 = Immediate Asset – Current Liabilities / Operating Cost – Depreciation

= 1095 – 2793 / 399 – 466

= - 1698 / - 67

= 0.0394

= 0.0394 x 0.16

= 4.0544

X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 = 4.279449

Tesco 2010X1 = Profit before Tax/Current Liabilities

= 3176 / 16015= 0.198314 x 0.53= 0.105106

X2= Current Asset / Total Liabilities

= 11765 / 31342= 0.375374 x 0.13= 0.048798

X3 =Current Liabilities / Total Asset

= 16015 / 46023= 0.347978 x 0.18= 0.062636

X4 = Immediate Asset – Current Liabilities / Operating Cost – Depreciation

= 9036 - 16015 / 1527-1107= -6979 / 420



= -16.6166 x 0.16= -2.65866

X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 = -2.44

The Tafflers score of J.Sainsbury is very stable and of high value however we see the negative value of TESCO which indicate distress sign or might fail and lose the position in the market.

Credit Crunch

A credit crunch indicates that banking institutions are unwilling to take on additional credit risk. Corporations as well as individual consumers may experience this credit squeeze or it is an economic condition in which investment capital is difficult to obtain. Banks and investors become wary of lending funds to corporations, which drives up the price of debt products for borrowers.

Today’s economy is facing severe and particular challenges and opportunities. London’s economy will grow more slowly than previously forecast, while Bank of England minutes reduced speculation of an interest rate increase.

The pound eased back slightly as the Bank of England confirmed market expectations by keeping interest rates unchanged.

Article states that:” uk.ibtimes.com/news”

“The market had expected the central bank to hold rates steady at their record lows of 0.50%, as the majority of the board members judge providing stimulus to the economy more important a task currently than tackling the growing inflation problem”

The credit crunch has already started to affect the both of the companies as Bank has increased interest rates and it will remain constant for sometimes as most of the companies are not paying dues on proper time.

Debt charities and credit industry bodies have told BBC News that they have seen a surge in the numbers of companies unable to pay their bills.


http://www.fxtimes.com/glossary/central-bank/

http://www.fxtimes.com/glossary/interest-rates/

http://uk.ibtimes.com/topics/detail/436/bank-of-england/


On Friday, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) revealed a sharp rise in the number of firms going bankrupt.

In short, the UK's trillion pound debt hangover finally seems to be kicking in.

Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said: “Pressure is mounting on the Bank of England to quickly cut interest rates again despite current elevated inflation levels and risks.”

The Bank of England said yesterday that “the worst of the credit crunch may be over and that credit conditions should gradually start to improve. However, lenders were offering little comfort for food and retailers sector firms”

A further problem identifies:

Sainsbury’s – which has consistently outperformed the market – stumbled in the 10 weeks to March 19. Boss Justin King said sky-high petrol prices; rising taxes and job fears had put the squeeze on budgets, changing grocery shopping habits.

Prediction:Though looking at the background of both of the companies we saw different ups and downs where companies lack in different prospect and lack in grabbing the customers according to their required level but that was past. Today both of them are working too hard to prove to be the best out there for the consumers. Through all analysis we examine Tesco and J.Sainsbury both working in a firm and unbreakable way to achieve and stepping onto the ladders of success. But when we throw light on the future we see a very tough consumer environment as customers facing too much increase in the fuel price, inflation , rising unemployment’s and Government spending cuts.

From Altman and Taffler's Z score we see despite of second position in the market J.Sainsbury working too hard to push itself on the top level, however it only operate in the United Kingdom. As company has no deficit symptoms it is heading towards triumph and sensation. On the Contrary if we take TESCO into an account the company possesses a firm hold in to the market and good will. Although it has good Altman Z score, the Tafflers results in negative score which can be mean in future the company might face problematical issues regarding the market position as it has chances of entering bankruptcy after the operation of two years. If we contemplate the possible reasons one could be because TESCO operate outside UK and could be badly affected by US and Asia economy, as it regulates in another rules and directive.

As today Asia economy has badly collapsed due to the Japan in crisis because of tsunami and most of the market share face ups and downs and might take years to get back to its normal position, this might directly or indirectly affect the TESCO’s company’s branches based out of UK.



However if we jump into the conclusion J.Sainsbury have promising future but TESCO needs to put lot of concern into the operating activities and on the investment side. But on the other hand we should not forget competitors as well, which is another threat for them.

A point to ponder:

Need is out there and this falls under the responsibility of both the companies to recognize it. And the one who understands it first will be market leader. Consumers demands will increase with the passage of time and habit to shop will fluctuate as well as the behavior will shift, there continuous strive to grab the opportunities and energy will nearly give them chance to conquer the market. And we look forward who will hit the first and wish them best of luck for the upcoming challenging years.

Bibliography:

o Books:

o Financial Management “Principles and Practice” by Timothy.Gallangher and Joseph D,

Andrew,JR.



o Interpreting and Analyzing Financial Statement by Karen Schoenebeck and Mark Holtzman

o Financial Analysis by Bill Rees

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Accessed-22 April

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%3ATSCO.L&it=le&timeframe=3y&index=le%3Acotn%3ASBRY.L&versus=&linetype=line&Go=Plot+&overlay=&overlay2=&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=&indicator2=&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on Accessed-10th April

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http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?p=market+capitalisation+value+of+sainsbury&ei=UTF-8&vm=r&fr=ush1-finance&fr2=newsdd



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http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary-%20chart.html?fourWayKey=GB00B019KW72GBGBXSET1



http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-%20/stocks/summary/company-summary-%20chart.html?fourWayKey=GB0008847096GBGBXSET0



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http://www.infogrok.com/index.php/company-profiles/financial-services/commercial-banking/j-sainsbury-plc.html

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https://www.infogrok.com/index.php/company-profiles/energy/commodity/power/tesco-plc.html

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3ATSCO.L&it=le&timeframe=3y&index=le%3Acotn%3ASBRY.L&versus=&linetype=line&Go=Plot+&overlay=&overlay2=&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=&indicator2=&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on



http://www.lse.co.uk/sectors.asp?sector=5330&sectorname=food_&_drug_retailers

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/10/tesco-waitrose-win-market-share

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o Accessed 14th April

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14th April

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Accessed 10th April

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PressReleaseInterims2007_08.pdf -Accessed 28th April


http://www.tescoplc.com/plc/ir/pres_results/results/r2008/InterimResults07_08/PressReleaseInterims2007_08.pdf

http://www.tescoplc.com/plc/ir/pres_results/results/r2008/InterimResults07_08/PressReleaseInterims2007_08.pdf

http://www.ivoryresearch.com/sample5.php

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20110323/tot-uk-sainsbury-b86c26b.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/sbry/

http://www.tesco.com/investorInformation/report97/review/page2.html

http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/news.htm?tkr=SBRY

final project of finance

Documents

tesco plc tesco plc

financial services

economic body

economic wounds

brand sainsbury

london food

legislative action

past analysis of companies