Page | 1

SECRET BETTING CLUB FINK TANK FOOTBALL SYSTEM GUIDE 2015/16 Season Published July 2015 Compiled by Nick Ward & Peter Ling of the Secret Betting Club.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part 1: Introduction & Background To The Fink Tank Football System ............................................ 2 Part 2a: Using The Fink Tank To Build Betting Systems .................................................................... 6 Part 2b: The 4 Recommended Base Systems For 2015/16 .............................................................. 9 Part 3: The Fink Tank By Numbers .................................................................................................. 16

WELCOME

Welcome to the latest Secret Betting Club Fink Tank System Guide - updated for the 2015/16 Football Season. Hot on the heels of a very successful 2014/15 season, we recognise demand is very high as regards Fink Tank data from many of you keen to follow it once again this coming season. To help satisfy this demand, we have published this special guide to update you on all aspects of the Fink Tank System, with analysis on performance during the 2014/15 season, plus an updated look at the 4 base systems we recommend to follow for Asian Handicap or Win only betting. In addition to this we also have a special 'Fink Tank By Numbers' section where you can view its performance broken down into different segments, such as by league, home/away and the stage of the season. The analysis on how well the system performs over the first 6 games of the season historically is especially interesting. The key difference for Fink Tank System followers in the 2015/16 season is the news that its parent company, Dectech will no longer be supplying its football ratings for free online. We decided to step into the breach and we have agreed an exclusive deal with Dectech to enable us to supply all Fink Tank Value Bets during the 2015/16 season via a new football service. To cover the licence costs to acquire the exclusive betting rights we are asking for a small subscription fee for those of you keen to follow the Fink Tank during the 2015/16 season. Those who do sign-up will receive all of the value bets as highlighted via the 4 base systems we outline further on in this guide. Further information can be found at http://secretbettingclub.com/fink-tank-football-service/ Best regards, Peter Ling Secret Betting Club Editor

Page | 2

PART 1 INTRODUCTION & BACKGROUND TO THE FINK TANK FOOTBALL SYSTEM

The Fink Tank is a football predictor and ratings service provided by Decision Technology (Dectech) and sponsored by The Times newspaper. It is named the Fink Tank after the Times Executive Editor, Daniel Finkelstein who throughout the football season pens regular articles on its findings for Times newspaper readers. Our own interest in the Fink Tank system began several seasons ago with the goal of utilising the Dectech ratings to help find the best football betting value bets. Thus ever since the 2010/11 season we have tracked various elements of the Fink Tank ratings against betting odds to gauge its strength. Over the last 2 seasons (2013/14 & 2014/15) we have also supplied and tracked each and every English football 'value' bet for Secret Betting Club members. To help us explore the potential of the Fink Tank ratings even further, we were indebted to Dr Paul Jackson from Dectech who kindly provided us with a full five seasons Fink Tank data (2008-13) across the top four English leagues. With all of this data combined, we were able to develop a specific betting strategy whereby each week we were able to shortlist the best value bets as generated by the Dectech Fink Tank ratings. Since the 2013/14 season we have grouped these bets into 4 specific 'base systems' for both Asian Handicap and Win only betting. We have supplied them each week for SBC members to follow and the systems have developed a healthy following due to strong performance, especially during the most recent 2014/15 season. July 2015 - Dectech remove the supply of free ratings No doubt keen to protect the viability of their ratings, in June 2015, Dectech announced that from July 2015 onwards they would no longer be supplying them for free online. It was at this point we opened negotiations with Dectech and agreed a deal to be the exclusive provider of betting tips based on their football ratings during the 2015/16 football season. Thus each and every qualifying 'value bet' that meets our 15% value marker for both Asian Handicap and Win only betting will now be supplied exclusively to members of our new Fink Tank Football Service. For those of you keen to access these tips, we are asking for a small subscription fee, which goes towards covering the substantial costs of acquiring the licence from Dectech.

Sign-up now to receive all SBC Fink Tank System Bets throughout the 2015/16 season.

Page | 3

HOW THE FINK TANK SYSTEM WORKS - AN OVERVIEW

To help generate their football ratings, Dectech devised a method which uses shots on target as the basis for their prediction model and they weight this based on certain factors such as home bias. With goals generally at a premium in football matches, a crossbar or dodgy penalty can mean a team undeservedly losing a game. Therefore a better judge of a team’s dominance and ability is this ratio of shots on goal both in terms of attack and defence. The higher incidence of shots in a game (as opposed to goals), then the greater the data by which to assess a team’s true strength. The more shots a team manages to create, the more goals it is likely to score - or at least so the theory goes. Dectech provide their Fink Tank ratings in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. These ratings are provided for the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2 and are updated on a daily basis. It is these ratings which we set against the bookmakers odds to help find our value bets. Example Game - Manchester United Vs Chelsea To give an example of how this system works, let's take the example of a fixture between Man United and Chelsea. The Fink Tank ratings give the following percentage chances of each outcome to be as follows: Man United Win: 44.6% Draw: 24.4% Chelsea Win: 31% We then compare the predicted percentages to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value. For example, for the Man Utd v Chelsea game, the Fink Tank percentages equate to the following odds:

Man Utd 100/44.6 = 2.24 Draw 100/24.4 = 4.10 Chelsea 100/31.0 = 3.23

Looking at the betting market, the best odds available on the match are as follows:

Man Utd 2.60 Draw 3.30 Chelsea 3.00

As the odds available for a Man Utd win (2.60) exceed those indicated by the ratings (2.24), we might consider this option to be worth a value bet. The difference between 2.60 and 2.24 equates to 16.07%, which is the betting edge on offer here. Neither a Chelsea win or the draw showcase any value with the betting odds a lot lower than the chances as given by the Fink Tank ratings. So thus in this example, Man Utd is a value bet and it is this method that forms the basis of our Fink Tank System.

Page | 4

HOW THE FINK TANK SYSTEM PERFORMED DURING THE 2014/15 SEASON

During the 2014/15 football season, we ran this Fink Tank System for every single game taking place in the Premier League, Championship, League 1 & League 2. This involved the input of the Fink Tank ratings and bookmaker odds to ascertain the best value bets as per our 4 base systems. You can find more about each of these and how they work later on in this guide, however the basic premise is you choose the base system that appeals to you the most. All of the Fink Tank bets for each of the 4 base systems were provided to SBC members throughout the season with the results as follows:

Performance Summary - 2014/15 Season

Bank Size Bets Wins Strike Rate P/L ROI ROC

Win Value 15 80 448 118 26.3% 36.2 8.1% 45.3%

Win Value 20 100 299 73 24.4% 43.7 14.6% 43.7%

AH Value 15 30 448 232 51.7% 25.2 5.6% 83.9%

AH Value 20 30 299 152 50.8% 11.1 3.7% 37.1%

Overall it was a very successful season with each of the Win and Asian Handicap base systems making a fine profit. There are slightly different returns for each base system over key metrics such as ROI (Return on Investment) or ROC (Return on Capital). This latter calculation is very important as it relates to how much money you would make from a set betting bank. £2000 Betting Bank Example Profits For example, if you started following with a £2000 betting bank, in the table below you can view the profits you would have made for each base system during the 2014/15 season.

£2000 Betting Bank 2014/15 Profit

Bank Size Money Bank Stake Per Bet Points P/L Bank Profit

Win Value 15 80 £2,000 £25.00 36.2 £905.00

Win Value 20 100 £2,000 £20.00 43.7 £874.00

AH Value 15 30 £2,000 £66.67 25.2 £1,680.00

AH Value 20 30 £2,000 £66.67 11.1 £740.00

Despite the Win Value 20 base system having the greatest points profit tally, the actual best betting bank return would have been from the AH Value 15 base system. £2000 invested at the start of the 2014/15 season would have made a £1,680.00 profit. £5000 Betting Bank Example Profits If upping the starting betting bank to £5,000, this amount of profit would have increased further as per the table below.

Page | 5

£5000 Betting Bank 2014/15 Profit

Bank Size Money Bank Stake Per Bet Points P/L Bank Profit

Win Value 15 80 £5,000 £62.50 36.2 £2,262.50

Win Value 20 100 £5,000 £50.00 43.7 £2,185.00

AH Value 15 30 £5,000 £166.67 25.2 £4,200.00

AH Value 20 30 £5,000 £166.67 11.1 £1,850.00

In total, the AH Value 15 base system, would have made a £4,033 profit from this £5,000 starting bank.

HOW THE FINK TANK SYSTEM HAS PERFORMED LONG-TERM

The performance from the Fink Tank System in 2014/15 was no fluke because we have examined and tracked it all the way back to the 2008/09 season. You can view its long-term performance summary in the table below.

Performance Summary - Long-Term

Bank Size Bets Wins Strike Rate P/L ROI ROC

Win Value 15 80 3301 875 26.5% 305.5 9.3% 382.0%

Win Value 20 100 2239 555 24.8% 251.9 11.3% 251.9%

AH Value 15 30 3301 1753 53.1% 187.7 5.7% 625.5%

AH Value 20 30 2239 1189 53.1% 125.4 5.6% 418.0%

£2000 Betting Bank Example Profits - Long Term Once again to a simple £2,000 betting bank you can see the profits that would have been made if following since the 2008/09 season in the table below.

£2000 Betting Bank All-Time Profit

Bank Size Money Bank Stake Per Bet Points P/L Bank Profit

Win Value 15 80 £2,000 £25.00 305.5 £7,637.50

Win Value 20 100 £2,000 £20.00 251.9 £5,038.00

AH Value 15 30 £2,000 £66.67 187.7 £12,513.33

AH Value 20 30 £2,000 £66.67 125.4 £8,360.00

You can read a lot more about these results and each of the 4 base systems in Part 2 of this guide, but this hopefully should give a fascinating insight into the power of the Fink Tank System.

Sign-up now to receive all SBC Fink Tank System Bets throughout the 2015/16 season.

Page | 6

PART 2A USING THE FINK TANK TO BUILD BETTING SYSTEMS

In this section we present information on first of all, the methodology (in-brief) of how we built and assessed the Fink Tank football system itself and secondly, the subsequent 4 base systems which we recommend to follow it in.

The methodology section below is ideal for those of you keen to understand the logic behind the tracking and implementation of these systems. For those of you keen on understanding the 4 base systems we recommend, you can skip this section on the methodology and jump straight to page 11.

FINK TANK SYSTEM METHODOLOGY

Without getting too bogged down in the detail of the analysis work, we’ve provided an outline of the methodology used to assess the potential of the Fink Tank ratings. This was originally based on five seasons’ data (2008-13), provided by Dr Paul Jackson at Dectech, and subsequently refreshed each year with data we collected prospectively from the 2013-14 season onwards:

1) Collated data for four main English leagues into one large dataset, and removed unwanted data (e.g. Play-off fixtures). The dataset now covers seven seasons and totals around 14,250 matches.

2) Matched the Fink Tank dataset with separate data on match results and odds (taken primarily from the excellent resource, http://www.football-data.co.uk/ – with some additional Asian Handicap odds data from other sources) **

3) Calculated the “theoretical value” of Home win/ Draw/ Away win for each match

4) Tested performance for key factors such as value (divided into percentage bands), odds bands, Home vs Away, individual leagues, and stage of season.

** The analysis was based on the best odds taken from the football-data site, which records odds from a wide panel of bookmakers quoted on the Betbrain odds comparison site on Friday afternoons for weekend fixtures, and on Tuesday afternoons for midweek games. For example, win only odds were taken from the “BbMxH/ BbMxA” columns in the spreadsheets which you can download from the football-data website. Whilst invaluable for our analysis, we recognise that this approach will likely overstate the potential returns that can be achieved – we have addressed this later in this guide, where we put forward some suggested systems for the 2015-16 season. It’s also worth clarifying, at this point, that the ratings we’ve analysed are not backfitted in any way; all the ratings data we’ve used for the analysis were published prospectively on the Dectech Fink Tank website, and then later collated for our use. Key Findings - Value Cut-offs If the Fink Tank ratings really work, we would hope to see greater profitability for selections associated with higher value, i.e. a bigger discrepancy between the odds derived from Fink Tank predictions and those available at the bookmakers.

Page | 7

We looked at the performance at various value “cut-offs” to see if this theory held:

Note that ROI in above chart is based on straight Win bets (Home/Away).

The graph above shows the sort of pattern we’d hoped to see, certainly over the 0-20% value range. Further detailed figures are shown in the table below. We can see that the Return on Investment (ROI) increases as we go up the value range, cutting out the less profitable bets as we go along. Note also, though, the increase in the average odds at each stage and the related drop in strike rate – we have to take on greater risk to achieve greater rewards in ROI terms as we set the value bar higher and higher. The apparently weaker performance at the 25% value cut-off may simply be down to the greater variability associated with the lower sample size, high odds group, or may indicate that the underlying model becomes somewhat less reliable as we move into the outer extremes of the dataset.

Fink Tank Value Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI

> 0% Value 10713 3.96 3493 32.6% 393.4 3.7%

> 5% Value 7452 4.31 2238 30.0% 271.7 3.6%

> 10% Value 5038 4.73 1423 28.2% 315.0 6.3%

> 15% Value 3376 5.20 889 26.3% 306.4 9.1%

> 20% Value 2281 5.69 565 24.8% 258.2 11.3%

> 25% Value 1542 6.29 346 22.4% 162.2 10.5%

This finding – as we’d hoped – allows us to use the ratings to quickly eliminate the less profitable bets from the larger dataset. Subtracting the profit figures for the “>15% Value” line, in the table above, from the whole set of 10,713 selections (“> 0% Value”), we see that there has been only marginal profit for the selections with “theoretical value” in the range 0-15% (only 87 points profit from a huge 7,337 bets). For the remainder of the analysis summary we‘ve focused on the selections within the >15% Value group as this is where the bulk of profit has been seen historically. We settled on this

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

> 0% > 5% > 10% > 15% > 20% > 25%

RO

I

Fink Tank Value Cut-off

ROI for Different Fink Tank Value Cut-offs

Page | 8

approach back in the original 2013 analysis and believe that results over the last seasons have further strengthened the case for using this cut-off point. Football-data Based Analysis vs SBC Live Testing Results: How do they Compare?

Before moving on to look at our recommended systems for following the Fink Tank ratings, it’s worth clarifying how results collated from our two main data sources compare. With no prospective odds data collated prior to our original analysis performed in summer 2013, we decided the most robust and consistent approach was to utilise archived odds available at http://www.football-data.co.uk/ as described in the Methodology section above. However, since that time we have also prospectively recorded odds data based on a panel of nine bookmakers (12bet, 188bet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Pinnacle, SBObet, Totesport and William Hill) and released recommended value bets based on the best/next best odds available. These tips were supplied at around 12.30 to 1.30pm on a Friday ahead of any weekend games and at a similar time on Monday and Tuesday for any mid-week fixtures. This approach was developed both to enable us to highlight specific bets to SBC members and to develop a database of prices which would give us a fairer estimate of the likely achievable returns. These two methods of assessing the results will differ both with respect to the list of bookmakers used and the precise time data is collected, resulting in a slightly different list of qualifying bets (e.g. where differing odds generate value calculations marginally above or below our chosen 15% threshold) and differences in the corresponding P/L calculations. We’ve provided as assessment based on last season’s results to illustrate this: Comparison of football-data.co.uk Based Results vs Official Fink Tank SBC Results: 2014-15 Season

football-data.co.uk archive

generated Official Fink Tank SBC Results

Bets Wins P/L ROI Bets Wins P/L ROI

Win Value 15 471 122 50.0 10.6% 448 118 36.2 8.1%

Win Value 20 311 78 62.7 20.2% 299 73 43.7 14.6%

AH Value 15 471 248 23.4 5.0% 448 232 25.2 5.6%

AH Value 20 311 166 19.9 6.4% 299 153 11.1 3.7%

Note: Official Fink Tank SBC Results include two bets on play-off matches (not included as part of main analysis)

Note that figures quoted in the remainder of the guide use the football-data based results (so that we can use one consistent method for the full seven years’ historical data available for Fink Tank), but we have made allowances for the likely over-estimated profit levels this generates when introducing our recommended systems in the next section.

Page | 9

PART 2B THE 4 RECOMMENDED BASE SYSTEMS FOR 2015/16

In this section we discuss 4 sub-systems originally identified back in the 2013 guide. Working on the theory that, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, we will continue to follow these systems during the 2015/16 season. Read about how they work, who they are suitable for and the profitability suggested by our analysis.

4 WAYS TO FOLLOW THE FINK TANK THIS SEASON

For those interested in using the Fink Tank ratings for their betting this season, we’ve put together 4 base systems to get you started. These are designed to give you a choice of system, depending on your own preferences; for instance, how many bets you’re prepared to place per week, odds availability and liquidity for your available choice of bookmakers, and your preferred approach to managing the risk involved in betting these selections. The addition of Asian Handicap (AH) betting approaches, in particular, may be valuable for those of you either restricted with more traditional bookmakers and/or keen to stake larger amounts on the Fink Tank generated selections. These 4 approaches are by no means the only way for you to follow the Fink Tank, but are a series of suggested methods that we feel offer merit and have been thoroughly “road tested” over the last two seasons. The four base systems – effectively two main systems at two different value cut-offs – are summarised in the table below, and then covered individually in more detail in the following sections.

System Bet

Type Value

Cut-off Suggested

Bank Bets per Season Risk

Target ROI

Target ROC

Win Value 15 Win 15% 80 480 High 6% 35%

Win Value 20 Win 20% 100 325 High 8% 25%

AH Value 15 AH 15% 30 480 Low 4% 65%

AH Value 20 AH 20% 30 325 Low 4.5% 50%

Note: ROC = Return on Capital. AH = Asian Handicap. All systems generate about 2/3 Away, 1/3 Home bets.

You may choose to bet these systems “blind” (i.e. follow all selections which qualify for a particular system), or use them as input for your own betting, e.g. for those who have specialist knowledge of certain leagues or teams, and want to take into account extra information (injury news, new signings etc) not covered by the Fink Tank ratings. One key consideration when choosing which system, or systems, to follow in the coming season is Return on Capital (ROC) – the amount of profit you might expect to make in relation to the betting bank you put aside for this element of your betting portfolio. It’s noticeable that, despite the lower ROI figures, the Asian Handicap systems have generally outperformed the Win bet systems in ROC terms, with much lower points betting banks required as they operate at much higher strike rates (further details on this are shown in the individual system sections below). An alternative approach, perhaps mixing both Win and AH systems in your portfolio by splitting the stakes for each selection, also may prove attractive to some would-be followers.

Page | 10

NOTE - Odds Availability Odds availability is a key aspect which we look for when reviewing tipster services and systems. Although we used best odds from http://www.football-data.co.uk/ for analysis purposes, we need to settle on a more conservative approach when setting expectation for future performance associated with the ratings. We’ve researched a number of options and assessed what we achieved with our live testing (the odds we used, primarily based on Pinnacle, fell about 2% short of the football-data best odds for win only bets), and come up with the following “reduction factors”:

-3% for win only bets -1.5% for Asian Handicap bets We have applied these reductions to the target ROI and ROC and also adapted the equity charts for our six chosen systems, so that returns at both best odds and “target” odds are shown. This applies equally when viewing the additional analysis areas covered later on in Part Three of the guide.

Page | 11

BASE SYSTEM 1: WIN VALUE 15

The first base system is termed the 'Win Value 15' and quite simply selects any bets the Fink Tank suggests offers at least 15% or more theoretical value at current available odds – all bets are advised as 1 point win only bets. The summary statistics for the Win Value 15 system are:

Bets/season: 480 Strike Rate: 26% Target ROI: 6% (historically 9% at best odds) Target ROC/season: 35% Recommended Betting Bank: 80pts A full equity curve and season-by-season breakdown is shown below.

Season Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC

2008-09 474 4.83 134 28.3% 34.9 7.4% 43.7%

2009-10 587 5.41 151 25.7% 39.0 6.6% 48.8%

2010-11 498 4.76 141 28.3% 76.8 15.4% 95.9%

2011-12 545 5.40 142 26.1% 42.4 7.8% 53.1%

2012-13 436 4.82 123 28.2% 91.6 21.0% 114.5%

2013-14 365 6.06 76 20.8% -28.4 -7.8% -35.5%

2014-15 471 5.25 122 25.9% 50.0 10.6% 62.5%

Total 3376 5.20 889 26.3% 306.4 9.1% 383.0%

Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 80 point betting bank.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 501 1001 1501 2001 2501 3001

Pro

fit/

Loss

(p

oin

ts)

Stake (points)

Fink Tank 2008-15: Win Value 15

Best Odds Target Odds

Page | 12

BASE SYSTEM 2: WIN VALUE 20

The second base system is termed the 'Win Value 20' and is simply a higher value version of Win Value 15, only including the subset of selections with theoretical value of 20% or more. Given the higher threshold for inclusion, there are naturally less bets than Win Value 15, but in turn the Target ROI increases to 8%. As the strike-rate drops to 25% and a betting bank of 100 pts is recommended, the target ROC is also lower at 25%.

The summary statistics for the Win Value 20 system are:

Bets/season: 325 Strike Rate: 25% Target ROI: 8% (historically 11% at best odds) Target ROC/season: 25% Recommended Betting Bank: 100pts A full equity curve and season-by-season breakdown is shown below.

Season Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC

2008-09 307 5.09 89 29.0% 48.5 15.8% 48.5%

2009-10 430 5.91 105 24.4% 44.8 10.4% 44.8%

2010-11 337 5.24 90 26.7% 63.2 18.7% 63.2%

2011-12 372 5.97 88 23.7% 16.9 4.5% 16.9%

2012-13 272 5.12 71 26.1% 52.2 19.2% 52.2%

2013-14 252 6.83 44 17.5% -30.1 -11.9% -30.1%

2014-15 311 5.73 78 25.1% 62.7 20.2% 62.7%

Total 2281 5.69 565 24.8% 258.2 11.3% 258.2%

Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 100 point betting bank.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 501 1001 1501 2001

Pro

fit/

Loss

(p

oin

ts)

Stake (points)

Fink Tank 2008-15: Win Value 20

Best Odds Target Odds

Page | 13

BASE SYSTEM 3: AH VALUE 15

The third base system is termed the 'AH Value 15' and highlights Asian Handicap bets offering 15% or more theoretical value that are trading around the evens (2.0) marker. One of the weaknesses of the win only approach, is the larger volatility in results. We spent some time researching the use of various Asian Handicap options on the Fink Tank selections, with a view to providing more stable returns and making good use of the high liquidity markets offered for these bets. This system, together with its “sister” system AH Value 20, focuses on betting on the Asian Handicap line which gives odds around the evens mark. By way of example we’ve detailed the odds available for one of the fixtures shown earlier in the screen print from the Fink Tank website: Tottenham v Swansea Home Odds: 1.73 [12BET] Draw Odds: 3.80 [several bookmakers] Away Odds: 5.79 [Pinnacle] Asian Handicap line: -0.75 (i.e. Away team, Swansea, get a ¾ goal start) Home odds: 1.98 [12BET, 188BET] Away odds: 2.00 [Pinnacle, SBOBET] The summary statistics for the AH Value 15 system are:

Bets/season: 480 Strike Rate: 53% Target ROI: 4% (historically 5.5% at best odds) Target ROC/season: 65% Recommended Betting Bank: 30pts A full equity curve and season-by-season breakdown is shown below.

-20

30

80

130

180

230

1 501 1001 1501 2001 2501 3001

Pro

fit/

Loss

(p

oin

ts)

Stake (points)

Fink Tank 2008-15: AH Value 15

Best Odds Target Odds

Page | 14

Season Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC

2008-09 474 1.98 259 54.6% 36.5 7.7% 121.8%

2009-10 587 1.98 310 52.7% 26.1 4.4% 86.9%

2010-11 498 1.98 277 55.6% 47.2 9.5% 157.4%

2011-12 545 2.00 291 53.4% 33.5 6.1% 111.6%

2012-13 436 1.99 231 52.9% 22.6 5.2% 75.2%

2013-14 365 1.98 181 49.5% -7.4 -2.0% -24.7%

2014-15 471 2.00 248 52.7% 23.4 5.0% 78.1%

Total 3376 1.99 1796 53.2% 181.9 5.4% 606.4%

Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 30 point betting bank.

Page | 15

BASE SYSTEM 4: AH VALUE 20

This fourth base system is simply a higher value version of AH Value 15, only including the subset of selections with theoretical value of 20% or more. Although bet quantity is lower (around 155 bets less in an average year) the strike-rate remains similar at 53-54%. The Target ROI is 0.5% higher than System 3 at 4.5%, whilst the ROC is a little lower at 50% (compared to 65%).

The summary statistics for the AH Value 20 system are:

Bets/season: 325 Strike Rate: 54% Target ROI: 4.5% (historically 6% at best odds) Target ROC/season: 50% Recommended Betting Bank: 30pts A full equity curve and season-by-season breakdown is shown below.

Season Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC

2008-09 307 1.97 170 55.4% 28.0 9.1% 93.5%

2009-10 430 1.98 226 52.5% 15.9 3.7% 53.1%

2010-11 337 1.97 188 55.9% 33.2 9.9% 110.8%

2011-12 372 2.00 200 53.8% 26.1 7.0% 87.0%

2012-13 272 1.99 149 54.9% 24.8 9.1% 82.6%

2013-14 252 1.98 121 47.9% -13.9 -5.5% -46.4%

2014-15 311 2.00 166 53.4% 19.9 6.4% 66.2%

Total 2281 1.98 1220 53.5% 134.0 5.9% 446.8%

Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 30 point betting bank.

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 501 1001 1501 2001

Pro

fit/

Loss

(p

oin

ts)

Stake (points)

Fink Tank 2008-15: AH Value 20

Best Odds Target Odds

Page | 16

PART 3 THE FINK TANK BY NUMBERS

For those of you looking to follow the Fink Tank selections in the coming season, we thought it would be helpful to delve a little deeper with our analysis, and provide some insight on the following questions:

How much season by season variation have we seen so far?

Does the Fink Tank flag predominantly either Home or Away bets, and how do these perform?

How do the recommended systems perform at different stages of the season?

Has historical performance varied much across the four English leagues covered by Fink Tank?

Are there any clear relationships between the odds/profitability of selections (e.g. are longer odds bets generally more profitable?)

For the sake of simplicity, all the figures quoted below relate to historical performance of the Win Value 15 base system over the seven seasons from 2008-15. These key findings also broadly hold for our other recommended systems, Win Value 20 and the corresponding Asian Handicap systems.

SEASON BY SEASON VARIATION

Actually, we’ve already given you answer to this one (in Part Two above); we have seen substantial variation in the results on a seasonal basis. Anyone following the Fink Tank selections over the last two seasons alone can attest to this! We’ve pulled out the key figures from the Win Value 15 system table shown earlier and put them into the table below. ROI has varied from -7.8% in 2013-14 (the only losing season so far) to an impressive +21.0% in the season immediately before that. More typical seasons see returns in the range 6-11% (4 out of 7 were in this range). Seasonal volumes are generally around the 500 bet mark, not a huge sample by any means – so we can expect this sort of variation to occur naturally

Season Bets Av Odds Strike Rate Profit ROI

2008-09 474 4.83 28.3% 34.9 7.4%

2009-10 587 5.41 25.7% 39.0 6.6%

2010-11 498 4.76 28.3% 76.8 15.4%

2011-12 545 5.40 26.1% 42.4 7.8%

2012-13 436 4.82 28.2% 91.6 21.0%

2013-14 365 6.06 20.8% -28.4 -7.8%

2014-15 471 5.25 25.9% 50.0 10.6%

Page | 17

HOME VS AWAY

The Home/Away split of bets for the Win Value 15 system is roughly 36:64. The Away selections have a higher risk/reward profile than the Home bets; with a historical strike rate of only 23%, Away bets have generated an ROI of 10.8%, comfortably exceeding the 6.1% seen for Home bets. Bear in mind, though, that the Away bets are particularly prone to significant short-medium term volatility, so the extra profits on offer go hand-in-hand with a tougher psychological challenge.

Selection Bets Av Odds Strike Rate Profit ROI

Home 1223 3.74 32.8% 74.5 6.1%

Away 2153 6.04 22.7% 231.9 10.8%

STAGE OF SEASON

Back in our 2013 guide, when we first introduced the recommended SBC systems, we highlighted a potentially interesting area of strong performance - the first few rounds of the season had generated particularly good profits. At the time we said “profitability to date has been excellent (ROI 19.2%)” but suggested we needed “to see if the early season pattern holds up over a larger sample size as we gather more results this season and beyond”. With two more seasons under our belt, we returned to this analysis, and found the initial findings have held up very well:

First 6 Games** Bets Av Odds Strike Rate Profit ROI

2008-09 55 4.55 32.7% 14.0 25.4%

2009-10 69 4.58 30.4% -0.9 -1.3%

2010-11 72 4.83 26.4% 20.8 28.9%

2011-12 72 4.63 31.9% 5.0 7.0%

2012-13 49 4.68 38.8% 22.6 46.1%

2013-14 52 5.37 25.0% 3.9 7.5%

2014-15 80 5.24 30.0% 38.0 47.5%

Total 449 4.84 30.5% 103.4 23.0%

** Note that we’ve chosen the first six rounds of games for the season as this seems a fairly commonly accepted “bedding in” period. For instance, both the Winabobatoo and Football Analyst ratings services use this specific number of games to gather early season data before releasing their first statistics and recommended bets.

Of course, with typically only around 50-80 bets in this early season period, we’re unlikely to see stellar returns each season – indeed the recent pattern seems to have thrown up, by chance, one good season followed by one more mediocre one, perhaps not a good sign for the season ahead! In these early games, the Fink Tank ratings have to rely more on data from the previous season, and it would appear that they have done this to great effect. One possible theory to support this finding relates to the early season hype we traditionally see both in the media and with supporters. Whilst longer-term evidence suggests most teams see only modest changes in their accumulated points and league position from one season to the next, perhaps the market over-reacts to the excitement of the summer signings and ongoing transfer talk during those opening weeks of a new season.

Page | 18

We’ve also included comparable information for the end of the season, traditionally seen as a rather unreliable period for betting, with mid-table teams often pitted against others, striving for success or to avoid disaster, at the extremes of the league tables – never likely to be easy to unpick the value in odds often compiled with these motivations and added pressures in mind. The performance of the Win Value 15 system over the last six rounds of games for each season is shown below. Returns have been quite modest, at just over 5%, to date:

Last 6 Games Bets Av Odds Strike Rate Profit ROI

2008-09 103 5.07 29.1% 15.5 15.0%

2009-10 108 5.96 23.1% 0.3 0.3%

2010-11 91 5.00 28.6% 16.9 18.5%

2011-12 93 5.97 17.2% -20.9 -22.4%

2012-13 69 4.95 24.6% 2.1 3.0%

2013-14 57 6.47 21.1% 4.0 6.9%

2014-15 93 5.45 26.9% 14.2 15.3%

Total 614 5.53 24.6% 32.0 5.2%

INDIVIDUAL LEAGUES

Results over the seven year period 2008-15 have varied considerably by League. Although sample sizes may not yet be sufficiently large to draw definitive conclusions, it’s striking that all the profits to date have been generated by the Premier League (16.8% ROI) and League 2 (21.9% ROI), whilst the Championship and League 1 have hovered around break-even point.

League Bets Average

Odds Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI

Premier League 859 6.85 211 24.6% 144.1 16.8%

Championship 976 4.66 250 25.6% 3.5 0.4%

League 1 786 4.82 195 24.8% -6.7 -0.8%

League 2 755 4.43 233 30.9% 165.5 21.9%

At this stage, we’d not advocate dropping any of the four leagues from your betting – we’re not yet sure the results are conclusive and also, to our minds, don’t make easy intuitive sense. You’ll see from the panel of graphs below, that performance across the leagues can be expected to vary markedly from one season to the next; the Championship, for instance, produced good returns in the two seasons from 2011-13 before hitting a more recent rocky patch. Note also, from the table above, the different profile of the Premier League, typically throwing up selections at longer average odds than the other three leagues. Given the significant strengths and ever-increasing resources of the elite clubs at the top of English football, this is perhaps not surprising. The Fink Tank ratings have relied more heavily on the occasional successful long-shot in this league with, for example, Swansea’s unexpected away wins at Man Utd and Arsenal – both at odds of around 10/1 – and Stoke’s early season victory at the Etihad (at a price just shy of 20/1) all boosting the coffers last season.

Page | 19

ODDS BANDS

And, finally, we briefly turn to performance by odds band. We were keen to find out in particular - as seen with a number of other systems - whether we could highlight potentially unprofitable lower odds selections for possible exclusion but, despite examining this angle in some detail, we largely drew a blank. The updated analysis seems to further strengthen the conclusions we came to originally in the 2013 guide, “nothing obvious sticks out ... It’s encouraging to see all odds groupings making some profit to date”. Given this, we have not weighed down the report with further tables covering this area but will, of course, continue to monitor this aspect of analysis as further data is added to the evidence base in the coming seasons.

SUBSCRIBE TO THE SBC FINK TANK FOOTBALL SERVICE