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TCP/EGY/3301 (D) / Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and

Agriculture in the Nile DeltaFirst mission report of the international climate change consultant

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION

OF THE UNITED NATIONS

TECHNICAL COOPERATION PROGRAMME

Arab Republic of Egypt

TCP/EGY/3301 (D)

Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on

Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta

Mission report

International consultant, climate change expert

J. BLANKEN

(March 2012)


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TCP/EGY/3301 (D) / Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture

in the Nile DeltaFirst mission report of the international climate change consultant

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The first in-country mission to Egypt of the international climate change (CC) expert was

carried out from February 11th to 24th, 2012. Following a kick-off meeting at the FAO

Regional Office in Cairo on February 12th, 2012, the consultant had the opportunity to meet

with representatives and key staff of all project implementing agencies within the Ministry of

Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR) and relevant to this FAO Technical Cooperation

Project (TCP), i.e. mainly the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) as well as

the Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI). In addition, work meetings

were organized with other institutions such as the National Authority for Remote Sensing and

Space Sciences (NARSS), the Coastal Research Institute (CORI), the Environmental and

Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI), the Drainage Research Institute (DRI). At the end

of the mission, a wrap-up meeting was held on February 23 rd, 2012, chaired by the Director of

CLAC, acting also as the National Program Coordinator (NPC). The same day, a debriefing

meeting was organized at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo.

The TCP started on October 1st, 2010, with a total duration of 24 months, i.e. project closure

date is September 30, 2012. The effective start of the project has seen some important delays

and there can be no doubt that the implementation of the projects key activities was severely

affected by the January / February 2011 revolution and the ensuing deep political crises and

turmoil. This is also evidenced by the fact that the project inception workshop was only held

on December 26, 2011, i.e. almost 15 months after project start.

Following this general political crises, it seems that ARC as the main partner institution for

this TCP has hardly played any major role in effectively coordinating and steering the main

project activities. In fact, there currently seems to be an important institutional vacuum at

higher ARC management and decision-making levels, which also has been deepened by

frequent staff turnover and lack of political guidance at higher management levels. There is

evidence that the responsibility for overall project coordination and steering at least informallyhas been delegated by ARC to CLAC, and particularly the Director of CLAC acting as NPC.

While CLACs main mandate includes the collection and analysis of all data related to

agricultural climate and testing its effect on the Egyptian agriculture sector as well as testing

different scenarios related to mitigation and adaptation to CC for agriculture activities, its role

and future direct responsibility for elaborating and running groundwater simulation models as

envisaged under the project still needs to be defined in more detail. However, CLAC at

present has neither the mandate nor the scientific and technical capacity and competence for

effectively dealing with these subjects and therefore will have to rely to a very large extent on

the assistance of specialized institutions outside MALR and ARC, most notably the

Groundwater Research Institute (GWRI), DRI as well as CORI.As far as SWERIs role in project implementationis concerned, since project inception there

are no major deviations as compared to the initially identified overall responsibility and more

detailed task description.

The Climate Change Information Centre (CCIC)has beenestablished in 2007 with the overall

goal of coordinating CC activities carried out by the different institutions of MALR, including

planning, information exchange, consolidation of results and establishment of a database for

decision-making. Furthermore, CCIC has been entrusted with facilitating and ensuring

effective liaison between MALR and other departments or sector Ministries in the area of

climate change related matters. However, since its establishment, CCIC has hardly been

operational and so far has never been in a position to adequately assume the detailed tasks asassigned to it under the project. This is particularly pertaining to developing the centres


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abilities in calibrating, validating and running simulation models for predicting likely impacts

of CC on agriculture in the Nile Delta. Given the fact that CCIC is more or less non-existent,

there presently is a vacuum not only as regards the responsibility for carrying out these

simulation activities, but also and even more importantly for ensuring effective coordination

both within MALR and other departments or sector Ministries.

At project appraisal, an inter-institutional Steering Committee (SC) for the project chaired by

the Chairman of ARC had already been established. However, its seems that since project

inception the SC did never meet regularly as planned and consequently has never been able to

actively take over its responsibilities for coordinating, planning, guiding and overseeing the

project activities, and to serve as a main channel for inter-institutional communication.

The activities carried out by the consultant in a first step concentrated to a very large extent on

reviewing the progress achieved to date in implementing the soil and water monitoring

activities carried out by SWERI on the basis of 2 letters of agreement (LoA). In this regard, it

can be concluded that most of the activities and expected outputs of the initial project logical

framework have been effectively achieved. Since June 2011, SWERI has installed a total of75 bathometers (or observation wells) to monitor groundwater levels as well as water and soil

quality in the coastal belt extending from Alexandria to Port Said. This impact monitoring

network has been checked and geo-referenced as planned, with assistance provided by the

national GIS and Remote Sensing consultant from NARSS.

Monitoring and data collection also started in June 2011 and since then is on-going. With

respect to soil salinity, it is envisaged to carry out during the whole project period a total of 3

sample collections. The first soil samples were taken in June 2011 and the data have been

analyzed. The second sampling exercise is currently being prepared, and the third and final

sampling is to be done in time before project closure in September 2012. Groundwatermonitoring is done on a bi-weekly basis for 2 parameters: (1) groundwater depth / depth to

water table; and (2) water salinity (restricted however to measuring only electrical

conductivity (Ec), without analyzing salt composition and especially sodium contents).

Unfortunately, the main preparatory activity of reviewing all previous work done on the

potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta could not be successfully

achieved during the projects first 2 months as initially envisaged. As a direct consequence,

the design of the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI did not benefit from

such a systematic review. Furthermore, it seems that at project start and prior to embarking

upon the SWERI soil and water monitoring activities, no comprehensive conceptual

framework has been developed on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion ongroundwater tables, water and soil salinity and irrigated agriculture, and such a framework is

still lacking today. There is no doubt that a proper understanding of these very complex

interactions and its underlying cause-effect-relationships can only be achieved on the basis of

an integrated and multi-disciplinary approach. Accordingly, the development of such a

conceptual framework inevitably would have required bringing together specialized key

resource persons from all relevant disciplines and institutions, both within MALR and from

outside, particularly the various research institutes established under the NWRC of MWRI

(GWRI, CORI, DRI, ECRI etc.). It should also be noted that at present, the mandate for

carrying out groundwater monitoring and modeling activities and related applied research is

mainly vested with the GWRI of NRWC / MWRI. In addition, important research activities on

the interaction of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta area have also been carried out

by CORI for a long time and there is a vast body of data and results available from this


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research. More recently, CORI in close cooperation with GWRI as well as DRI completed a

research project on the assessment of the impacts of CC and SLR on the drainage system of

the Nile Delta, in cooperation with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC).

It is concluded that, based on the current research design, the soil and water monitoring

activities of SWERI will most probably not provide the data and results that are urgentlyneeded for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater

intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity. Furthermore, these

data will definitely not be sufficient for successfully carrying out groundwater modelling and

simulation activities as envisaged under the project, as long as these are not completed and

correlated with other relevant data. It is therefore suggested that a workshop be organized as

soon as possible by ARC/CLAC with the major objective of establishing the conceptual

framework required for ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected

by SWERI. This workshop should provide the opportunity for jointly reviewing and adapting

the current research design as requested, taking into account the full set of parameters that are

needed for successfully completing this project activity. There is a large consensus that

looking at the shallow groundwater tables only is insufficient to fully capture the complex

interactions of SLR, saltwater intrusion and irrigated agriculture. Hence, it will be required to

assess these impacts on the entire aquifer columns, their basic characteristics and dynamics,

based on data that are available or regularly collected from the existing groundwater

monitoring network (including deep water tables) and by using available groundwater models.

Furthermore, these interactions can only be understood and simulated for assessing potential

future changes when irrigation and drainage conditions are also taken into account, as these

are key determinants of the parameters currently monitored by SWERI (mainly irrigation

water availability / irrigation applications in terms of quantity, quality and timing as well as

performance of the drainage systems and related improvement measures).

The suggested list of participants for this workshop (with duration of 2 to 3 days) in addition

to ARC/CLAC and SWERI should mainly include GWRI; CORI; DRI; ECRI; Egyptian

Public Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP); Drainage Authority of MWRI; Irrigation

Sector / Irrigation Improvement Sector of MWRI; Management and M&E Unit of the

Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP); Water Quality Unit of

MWRI; Project Manager of the Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea

Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (CORI); Specialists from

national Universities; international and national project consultants (as far as possible).

There is no doubt that a total observation period of only about 15 months under the project

will be insufficient to gather representative and final data and results for improving the currentknowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on groundwater and

soils in the Nile Delta. An extension of this soil and water monitoring activity beyond project

closure in September 2012 is therefore indispensable and has to be prepared in time. This

workshop would also provide the opportunity for jointly discussing how these soil and water

monitoring activities can be continued beyond September 2012, including the adequate

definition of the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various

stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking. Ideally, the workshop participants should

also jointly contribute to drafting a memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed

by MALR and MWRI.

As requested in the ToR, the international CC consultant in close coordination with the

national CC consultant and the national hydrogeology consultant also carried out the task of


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reviewing all previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular the coastal area

of the Nile Delta. In order to avoid duplication of efforts and to ensure a multi-disciplinary

approach for responding to this task, it was mutually agreed that the national CC consultant

and the national hydrogeology consultant who have both extensive and ample previous

experience in carrying out research work on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water

intrusion in the Nile Delta area - in their review work and the mission reports still to besubmitted will mostly concentrate on the expected geo-physical as well as hydraulic /

hydrological impacts. On the other hand, the international CC consultant in his review should

concentrate first of all on the analysis of the potential effects of SLR and sea water intrusion

on agricultural production and related socioeconomic effects.

The results of this summarizing review have shown that so far rather little work has been done

on assessing in detail the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion on the development

of irrigated agriculture in the Nile Delta. Most studies have concentrated on estimating the

permanent loss of agricultural land as a result of inundation, with the damage caused by this

process usually expressed in both the value of this land and the concomitant permanent

reduction of agricultural output. However, in most cases these estimates have been based on

rather highly aggregated values for both land values and production losses, generally taken

from secondary data sources, and by applying rather heterogeneous methodological

approaches that are often poorly described and documented. While this review might not yet

be complete or exhaustive and therefore should be continued in the forthcoming missions,

there seems to be ample evidence that most studies and assessments for their estimates have

not taken into account the detailed cropping patterns, cropping intensities as well as location-

specific yield levels for the most important crops as they can currently be found in the area

most vulnerable to SLR, risks of inundation and salt water intrusion. In addition, estimating

the associated losses in both financial and economic terms has hardly been based on a detailed

analysis of the prevailing profitability of the most important crop and livestock productionsystems and representative farm-household models, which would also provide the basis for a

more detailed and in-depth assessment of the potential socioeconomic impacts, such as

employment and food security impacts.

It is therefore suggested to carry out a more detailed assessment of the expected negative

impacts on irrigated agriculture, and to also attempt to go beyond purely qualitative

considerations and try to quantify these effects as much as possible. In this regard, the

methodological approach proposed by the consultant for assessing the impacts on agricultural

production and farm income is based mainly on the assumption that, due to the limited

remaining project life time of about 7 months, it will hardly be feasible to engage in larger

scale primary data collection activities such as extended farm or household surveys, given thesubstantial time inputs required for their preparation, field implementation and the subsequent

data entry and analysis. Top priority therefore is attached to using available secondary data

sources to the extent possible, and to examine the opportunity and possibility of

complementing such secondary data analysis by carrying out some specific case studies that

might realistically be completed before project closure. Accordingly, the methodological

approach might follow a step-wise procedure at different analytical levels, i.e. (i)

Governorates; (ii) Districts (both administrative and irrigation / drainage); (iii) village; (iv)

farms / households; (v) crop and livestock enterprises.

In a first step, relevant agricultural data should be collected from the Agricultural StatisticsYearbook(s) for the 6 Governorates where the soil and water monitoring sites have been

installed by SWERI and which fall into the coastal area that is most prone to the risks of


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inundation and salt water intrusion (Alexandria; Beheira; Kafr-El-Sheikh; Dakaliah; Damietta;

Port Said), covering at least the last 5 years and including demographic and socio-

demographic data (especially total and agricultural population); total land area and land use;

agricultural land (old and new lands); number of farms and average farm size; importance of

livestock (numbers and composition); cropped areas and cropping patterns by major crops and

agricultural seasons; yields of major crops; inputs / production costs; net returns / farmincome. Once these data have been compiled, a descriptive analysis should be carried in a

next step, mainly with a view of identifying recent trends as well as the main factors that

might explain the observed trends (if any), especially concerning cropping patterns, crop

yields etc.. In a second step, the same parameters should then be collected from official

MALR statistical records at the administrative District level, for the same time-series period.

If required, these District-level data might at a later stage be further disaggregated by using

cooperative data which will however not cover the same set of parameters indicated above.

These District-level agricultural statistics should be complemented by collecting the most

relevant irrigation and drainage data from MWRI (taking however into account that

administrative District boundaries do generally not match with Irrigation / Drainage Districts).

The analysis of the major agricultural statistical data on Governorate and District levels,

together with supplementary information to be collected most notably on irrigation and

drainage conditions in the study area, will provide the main basis for identifying

representative farm and household models and for describing their main characteristics and

dynamics. Once the prevailing farm and household systems are identified and characterized,

the analysis might be extended to also include an in-depth assessment of the productivity and

profitability of the major crops and livestock activities, which would then allow calculating

farm and household incomes for the representative models. A simple, EXCEL-based model is

available with the international CC consultant, which has been specifically developed and

designed for assessing the financial and economic impacts of different irrigation improvementprojects in the Nile Delta area (IIP and IIIMP). A copy of this model has been provided to

CLAC and it was agreed that this model might be used as a first template and subsequently be

adapted and amended to cater for the specific needs of assessing and simulating the potential

impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and farmers income in the

Nile Delta area. It still needs to be decided whether these assessments should be restricted to

financial analysis, thus concentrating on the effects from farmers point of view; or whether a

complete economic analysis from the societys point of viewshould be carried out.

The assessments briefly described in the preceding sections might then be usefully

complemented by carrying out selected case studies. In this regard, the availability of relevant

data that might be used for complementing the research activities initiated under the projectshould be seen the major selection criterion. Following the various work meetings and

discussions that the consultant had in the course of his mission, there at present seem to be the

following two opportunities for cooperating with other institutions on a case study basis: (1)

collaborate with ECRI on a recently started research project entitled adaptation options to

face CC scenarios for water and agriculture sectors for which the 2 Districts of Rashid and

Edko in the Rosetta area have been selected as study area; (2) The Integrated Irrigation

Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP) undoubtedly represents the most important

MWRI activity on this subject and its intervention area is overlapping to a very extent with the

network of soil and water monitoring sites established by SWERI under the project, especially

in El Raml District of Alexandria and several other locations of Beheira and Kafr-El-SheikhGovernorates. IIIMP disposes of a rather detailed and elaborate impact M&E systems and a


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large amount of data has already been collected that might be of particular interest and high

relevance for completing the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the project.

The task of assessing the impact and effectiveness of existing national policies and

arrangements of mitigating likely CC impacts on the coastal areas of the Nile Delta has been

assigned to the international socioeconomics consultant. However, the latter has not beenidentified and recruited yet and taking into account the limited time till project closure in

September 2012, the international CC consultant started collecting and reviewing the most

relevant national policy and strategy documents on CC impacts as well as mitigation and

adaptation measures. These particularly include (i) the Initial National Communication (INC)

on Climate Change (July 1999); (ii) the National Environmental Action Plan 2002/2017

(NEAP; December 2001); (iii) the National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy

towards 2030 (NSADS; 2009); (iv) the National Environmental, Economic and Development

Study for Climate Change (NEEDS; April 2010); (v) the Second National Communication on

Climate Change, May 2010; and (vi) the National Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate

Change (NSACC), adopted and published in December 2011. Given the fact that the water

resources sector is among the sectors most severely impacted by CC, this analysis should be

extended to also include the National Water Resources Plan / Water for the Future (NWRP;

June 2004), as well as the Integrated Water Resources Management Plan of June 2005.

Provided that this suggestion is approved by ARC / CLAC and FAO, the task of carrying out

this assessment might be assigned to the international CC consultant and this assessment

might be continued and completed during the consultants second mission.

The main conclusions and recommendations are briefly summarized as follows:

For project implementation to be successful for the remainder of the initial projectlifetime (only 7 months to go until the end of September 2012), especially ARC wouldhave to assume a much more proactive role in overall project coordination and steering.

In this context, it is of paramount importance to particularly improve coordination and

cooperation with MWRI and its specialized research institutes under NWRC, with a

view of exchanging relevant methodological experience and data and to complement

the soil and water monitoring data collected by SWERI under the project.

There is an urgent need to update the projects work plan for the remaining 7 months ofproject implementation and to proceed to a detailed planning and time schedule of the

various consultant inputs that are still to be recruited and implemented.

There is quite some evidence that the data currently collected and analysed by SWERIin the frame of the soil and water monitoring activities will not be sufficient forimproving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion,

water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity and that they will not

allow to successfully proceed to the envisaged groundwater modelling and simulation

activities, as long as these are not complemented by and correlated with other relevant

data. Therefore, a workshop should be organized as soon as possible by ARC / CLAC

with the following major objectives: (i) establish the conceptual framework required for

ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI, based

on a joint review and adaptation of the current research design and the proper

identification of the additional data requirements (basic characteristics and dynamics of

the prevailing aquifers, including deep water tables; irrigation and drainage conditions

etc.); (ii) jointly discuss how the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the


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project can be continued beyond project closure in September 2012,and (iii) adequately

define the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various

stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking, including the drafting of a

memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI.

As far as the analysis of the impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on agriculturalproduction in the Nile Delta area is concerned, it is suggested to entrust the nationalagronomy consultant as soon as possible with carrying out the collection and analysis

of the secondary agricultural statistics at Governorate and District levels according to

the general methodological approach advocated in this mission report. Given the fact

that there is substantial overlap in their respective terms of reference, the national

agronomy consultant and the international CC consultant will have to work as closely

together as possible, thus requiring a regular exchange and communication. It is

furthermore suggested, that the second mission of the international CC consultant

should overlap as much as possible with the national agronomy consultant, thus

requiring adequate coordination efforts at the level of ARC / CLAC.

There is also substantial overlap in the specific tasks assigned to international CCconsultant, the national agronomy consultant and the international socioeconomics

consultant. As far as the latter is concerned, no recruitment has taken place as of now.

In this context, it is suggested to carefully examine the opportunity of shifting the

subject and focus of the second international consultant from socio-economics to

hydrology and / or hydrogeology. If properly implemented and coordinated, the

missions of the international CC consultant and the national agronomy consultant

should suffice for effectively carrying out the required impact analyses on agricultural

production as well as other socio-economic effects. On the other hand, there might be a

need and opportunity for reinforcing the specific knowledge and experience relating tothe interdependency of SLR, sea water intrusion and groundwater dynamics, with a

view of complementing the national capacity that is currently existing in this field.

As much as possible, the initial time schedule for the second in-country mission of theinternational CC consultant should be maintained, i.e. a mission of 2 to 3 weeks in late

April or early May 2012. As indicated above, this second mission should overlap with

the inputs of the national agronomy consultant and accordingly, his effectively

availability during the indicated period would have to be confirmed.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 11.1 Summary presentation of project rationale and objectives as well as implementation

and management arrangements ....................................................................................... 21.2 Terms of reference of the international climate change expert ....................................... 51.3 Comments on the terms of reference ............................................................................... 52 Progress of project implementation .................................................................................... 72.1 Introductory remarks ....................................................................................................... 72.2 Soil and water monitoring by SWERI ............................................................................. 72.3 Institutional and project management arrangements ..................................................... 143 Main activities of the consultant and preliminary results and suggestions ....................... 163.1 Review of previous work on the impacts of sea level rise and saltwater intrusion ....... 163.2 Review of the relevant national policy and strategy framework ................................... 203.3 Study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta ..................................... 203.3.1 Collection and analysis of secondary data at Governorate level ............................... 213.3.2 Collection and analysis of secondary data at District level ....................................... 223.3.3 Identification of representative farm-household models and crop budgets ............... 223.3.4 Carrying out selected case studies ............................................................................. 244 Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................... 25ANNEXES

Annex 1 Mission itinerary

Annex 2 List of persons met

Annex 3 Logical framework

Annex 4 Bibliography

TABLES

1 Current major overlaps in the consultants task descriptions for analyzing / 6

studying the impacts on agricultural production


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FIGURES

page

1 Location of the SWERI soil and water monitoring sites 8

2 Groundwater salinity - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites (15(6/2012) 9

3 Depth-to-water table - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites (15(6/2012) 94 Initial bathometer design parameters 11

5 Middle East and North Africa region: Population impacted by SLR 17

6 Middle East and North Africa: GDP impacted by SLR 18

7 Middle East and North Africa: agricultural extent impacted by SLR 18

8 Administrative Districts of the project study area 23

9 Intervention area of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management 26

Project (IIIMP)

ACRONYMS

ARC Agriculture Research Center (MALR)

ARDF Agricultural Research for Development Fund

CLAC Central Laboratory of Agriculture Climate

CC Climate Change

CCIC Climate Change Information Centre (MALR)

CCRMP Climate Change Risk Management Programme

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CORI Coastal Research Institute

DRI Drainage Research Institute

DSS Decision Support System

ECRI Environment and Climate Change Research InstituteEEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency

EPADP Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GCM Global Climate Model

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIS Geographical Information System

GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for

International Cooperation)

GHG Greenhouse Gas

IDRC International Development Research Centre

IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development

IIP Irrigation Improvement Project

IIIMP Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project

IIS Irrigation Improvement Sector

INC Initial National Communication on Climate ChangeIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN)

JP Joint Program

LTO Lead Technical Unit (FAO)

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MALR Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation

MDGAF Millennium Development Goals Achievement FundMSEA Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs


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NARSSS National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences

NDP National Drainage Project

NEAP National Environmental Action Plan

NEEDS National Environmental, Economic and Development Study on Climate

Change

NPC National Project CoordinatorNSADS National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy

NWRC National Water Research Centre

PPR Project Progress Report

SLR Sea Level Rise

SNC Second National Communication on Climate Change

SWERI Soil, Water and Environment Research Center

TCP Technical Cooperation Programme

TOR Terms of Reference

UNJP UN Joint Programme


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1 Introduction

The present mission report of the international climate change expert is based on the first in-

country mission to Egypt carried out from February 11thto 24th, 2012. Following a kick-off

meeting at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo on February 12 th, 2012, the consultant during

his stay in Egypt had the opportunity to meet with representatives and key staff of all projectimplementing agencies within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR)

and relevant to this FAO Technical Cooperation Project (TCP), i.e. mainly the Central

Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) as well as the Soil, Water and Environment

Research Institute (SWERI). In addition, work meetings were also organized and held with

other institutions outside MALR that are directly concerned either by the provision of

specialist services as national consultants under the project, such as the National Authority

for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS) for GIS support services and the Coastal

Research Institute (CORI) for support on hydrology and hydrogeology expertise, or because

of the pertinence of their past and / or on-going research and development activities in the

area of climate change (CC) in general, and in the field of assessing the impacts of sea level

rise (SLR) as well as saltwater intrusion, in particular. This is the case especially for theEnvironmental and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI) and the Drainage Research

Institute (DRI), both belonging to the National Water Research Centre (NWRC) established

under the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI). Finally, there have also been

limited exchanges with other entities of MWRI, mainly as regards its on-going activities in

the area of irrigation and drainage improvement projects (most notably the Integrated

Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP). Last but not least, the mission

also provided the opportunity to meet with representatives of other donors and cooperation

agencies.

At the end of the mission, a wrap-up meeting was held on Thursday February 23 rd, 2012, at

CLAC headquarters, chaired by the Director of CLAC, acting also as the National ProgramCoordinator (NPC). The same day, a debriefing meeting chaired by the FAO Representative

for Egypt was organized at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo. The detailed mission itinerary

is given in annex 1, while annex 2 provides a list of key persons met in the course of the

mission.

The consultant seizes this opportunity to express his sincere appreciation and gratitude for

the warm hospitality and courtesy extended to him in the course of this mission by all

persons who he had the opportunity and pleasure to meet with. The consultant is also

grateful for the perfect organization of this mission by both the FAO Regional Office Cairo

and CLAC, the logistical support he enjoyed, as well as the fruitful and constructive work

atmosphere.

The present report is structured as follows. First, a brief presentation of the projects

rationale and objectives as well as its main implementation and management arrangements

is given in chapter 1.1. The detailed tasks assigned to the international CC consultant are

presented in chapter 1.2, before chapter 1.3 summarizes some major observations with

respect to the task descriptions of the various international and national consultants to be


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recruited under this project, with a view of identifying the needs for a more detailed division

of their respective tasks and for a better coordination of the envisaged consultant inputs.

Chapter 2 is then dedicated to a brief summary of the progress of project implementation

since its effective start in October 2010, concentrating to a very large extent on the soil and

water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI and which can be considered as the

cornerstone of specific data collection on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water

intrusion in the Nile Delta as initiated under the project.

Based on the detailed tasks assigned to the international CC consultant, the main results of

the mission are summarized in chapter 3, mainly concentrating on the review of the work

done so far on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion in the Nile Delta,

focusing to a large extent on the impacts on agricultural production and farmers income as

requested in the terms of reference. Based on this review, more detailed proposals are

developed and presented for the methodological approaches that might guide the future

work of the international CC consultant in carrying out additional analyses on the impacts

on agricultural production, farm incomes as well as other important socioeconomic impact

indicators. In this regard, particular attention is also given to reviewing the specific tasks as

currently assigned to the international CC consultant, the international socioeconomics

consultant as well as the national agronomy consultant, in order to avoid duplication of

efforts and to ensure that a coordinated and cooperative approach can be adopted for the

work still to be done until project closure in September 2012. Finally, the major

recommendations for future project implementation are summarized in chapter 4.

1.1 Summary presentation of project rationale and objectives as well as

implementation and management arrangements

Agriculture is a key sector for the socio-economic development in Egypt and plays a

significant role in the countrys national economy. It contributes to the overall food needs

and provides domestic industry with agricultural raw materials. About 50% of the Egyptian

population relies on agriculture for income generation and employment opportunities. The

agricultural sector employs more than 30% of the labor force and provides about 20% of the

country's exports. A large portion of the important processing industries depend on raw

materials produced by the sector. The Nile Delta and the narrow valley of the Nile represent

only about 5% of the area of Egypt; their importance is vital however as they cater for 95%

of the total agricultural lands and host the same percentage of the total population.

This backbone of Egypt, particularly for food production, is subject to several threats

including the encroachment of buildings and roads, pollution of land, air and water, and

decrease of per capita water resources as a result of population growth. In addition to these

traditional threats, new risks stemming fromclimate change have emerged over the past

few years. According to IPCC reports, Egypt is considered to be highly vulnerable to

climate change impacts. Current and future changes in climatic conditions constitute a

major environmental risk that may jeopardize Egypts development gains and efforts for

poverty reduction. Coastal zones, agriculture and water resources are identified by the Initial

National Communication (INC) of Egypt as the countrys most vulnerable sectors to climate


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change. Furthermore, temperature rises will also likely reduce the productivity of major

crops and increase their water requirements and irrigation demand.

The Mediterranean coast and the Nile Delta have been identified as specifically vulnerable

to Sea Level Rise (SLR). Estimates indicate that 0.5 m SLR would lead to the permanent

submersion of 1,800 km2 of cropland in low lands of the Nile Delta, and accelerate the

trends of desertification in the form of increased soil salinity in the remaining lands.

Depending on the underlying hypotheses and scenarios, SLR might cause the loss of as

much as 12-15% of the existing agricultural land in the Delta, corresponding to the loss of

30% of the total land area, and 195,000 jobs.With 1m SLR in the Mediterranean Sea, parts

of the protective offshore sand belt in the Nile Delta will be destroyed. As a result water

quality in coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered, groundwater salinity will be increased,

and a lot of recreational tourism and beach facilities are expected to be inundated. In

addition, more than 6 million people might be displaced and 4,500 square kilometres of

cropland might be permanently lost.The induced economic losses have been estimated to

exceed US$ 35,000 million.

As a consequence, Egypt is in urgent need of building and developing capacities of both

human resources and institutions to elaborate and implement effective strategies for

managing climate change risks in key vulnerable sectors. The country is taking several steps

in this direction, but needs technical support to further enhance local capacities to adapt to

climate change impacts, particularly in the agriculture sector. In this context, MALR has

requested FAO and other partners to contribute to the provision of such support.

Against this background and overall problem setting, the projects overall objective (impact

level) is to develop a decision support system (DSS) for predicting and mitigating the likely

impacts of climate change (CC) on agricultural production and the environment along the

coastal areas of the Nile Delta (see details in the logical framework matrix attached in annex

3). This DSS is meant to constitute the basis of a modern integrated national network for

monitoring CC impacts on agriculture, which is one of the main components of the National

Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy (NSADS) towards 2030.

The expected outcome of the project is to elaborate a comprehensive monitoring system

able to generate sound forecasts of SLR impacts resulting from CC on soil and groundwater

in the Nile Delta to serve as a decision-support (information) system for mitigating/adapting

to such impacts on the environment, agriculture and population. More specifically, the

following outputs are expected from the project:

CC impact monitoring sites (for soil and groundwater) identified, observation wellsinstalled, and geo-referenced;

likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater qualityknown;

action-oriented information system for predicting the likely impacts and adaptationmeasures of CC along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta established.

In order to effectively achieve these specific outputs, the major activities initially envisaged

in the project planning document mainly include the following:


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knowledge base study on SLR changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soiland groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta;

identification of monitoring variables/parameters (for soil and groundwater); selection of representative pilot areas; selection of monitoring sites; monitoring network installation, checking and geo-referencing; monitoring and data collection; data analysis and interpretation; simulation of likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater

salinization based on potential local SLR ranges;

calibration and/or validation of selected models such as groundwater model and soilmodel;

economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularlychanges in soil and groundwater due to SLR;

development and maintenance of a web-site to facilitate access to information on theimpacts of CC along the coastal area of the Nile Delta;

preparation of a technical report on likely impacts and adaptation measures ofclimate change (CC) along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta;

holding of dissemination workshops on the project results.The main project inputs to be provided through the contribution of FAO mainly comprise

the mobilization of specialized consulting services, through the recruitment of international

as well as national short-term consultants mainly in the following areas or disciplines:

international consultants

(1)International Consultant - CC Expert: 75 days in three missions;(2)TCDC/Retired Expert - Socio-Economist: 45 days in two missions.

national consultants

(1)National ConsultantHydro-geologist: 90 days;(2)National ConsultantGIS/RS Specialist: 60 days;(3)National Consultant - Statistician/Simulation Specialist: 75 days;(4)National Consultant - CC Expert: 90 days;(5)National ConsultantIT Website Developer: 90 days;(6)National Consultant - Agronomist: 60 days;(7)5 National Consultants - Site Monitors: 90 days each.

In addition, the FAO contribution is covering (i) non-professional national personnel; (ii)

official travel; (iii) FAO technical support services; (iv) training and national workshops; (v)

expendable equipment (materials and supplies); (vi) non expendable equipment; (vii)

general operating expenses; as well as (viii) support cost.

As far as project organization and implementation arrangements are concerned, MALR has

been entrusted the overall project responsibility, whereas the direct supervision is to be

provided by the Agriculture Research Centre (ARC). Under ARC, the following three

institutions have been designated as implementing agencies: CLAC, SWERI, and the

Climate Change Information Centre (CCIC).


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1.2 Terms of reference of the international climate change expert

The terms of reference (ToR) and specific tasks assigned to the international climate change

expert read as follows:

1. review previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular coastal area ofthe Nile Delta;

2. prepare likely local SLR scenarios;3. work closely with the statistician/simulation specialist and hydro-geologist to

conduct simulation of the likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and

groundwater salinization;

4. conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta;5. review and update the TOR of the national consultant counterpart as needed and

guide the orientation of his/her work;

6. contribute to the preparation of the draft strategy for the development of adaptationand mitigation measures;

7. act as a resource person for national workshops and their relevant components;8. prepare a synthetic report after each mission on the activities performed to the NPC

for transmission to the FAO RNE;

9. perform any other technical tasks as may be requested by the National ProjectCoordinator (NPC) in the framework of project activities.

According to the project planning document, these ToR are to be achieved in a total of 3 in-

country mission, with a total duration of 75 work days.

Referring to the projects logical framework matrix (see annex 3), the inputs of the

international CC consultant are consequently expected to contribute mainly to achieving the

following specific outputs:

output 1 CC impact monitoring sites identified, and more precisely sub -output 1.1review all previous work done on sea level changes, groundwater table, and

salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta;

output 3 likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwaterquality known, especially sub-outputs 3.4 modelling likely future CC impact

scenarios as well as 3.5 economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of

CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR.

1.3 Comments on the terms of reference

The thorough review of the detailed tasks that have been assigned to the different nationaland international consultants in the initial project document (and which so far have never

been up-dated) reveals that there is substantial overlap in the task descriptions, making it

thus difficult to precisely identify their division of respective tasks and direct

responsibilities.

As far as the review of previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular the

coastal area of the Nile Delta is concerned, this task has been jointly assigned to the


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international CC consultant, the national CC consultant, the international socioeconomics

consultant as well as the national hydrogeology consultant. There is, however, no detailed

indication of the specialist areas to be covered by every consultant. Therefore, ensuring a

very close coordination and cooperation between the various consultants is of utmost

importance for effectively achieving this activity and this should be facilitated by ARC and

CLAC.

As can be seen from table 1 below, these overlapping tasks and responsibilities are also

quite substantial for the missions of the international CC expert, the international

socioeconomics consultant and the national agronomy consultant, as far as they relate to

studying and analyzing the potential impacts on agricultural production and consequently

farmers income. While the major task assigned in this regard to the international CC

consultant is formulated in a very rough and vague manner (conduct study/forecast of CC

impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta), there is almost a perfect duplication of the specific

tasks assigned to both the international socioeconomics consultant and the national

agronomy consultant with regard to assessing the potential impacts of CC particularly on

land use, cropping pattern, productivity and production, water availability and irrigation in

the coastal area of the Nile Delta.

Table 1: Current major overlaps in the consultants task descriptions for

analyzing / studying the impacts on agricultural production

consultants detailed task assignment and overlap

international CC expert conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in theNile Delta

international socioeconomist conduct an assessment on the economic, social andenvironmental consequences of CC in the coastal area of

the Nile Delta of Egypt. More specifically assess,

qualitatively, the likely impact of CC on: land use, cropping pattern, productivity and

production, water availability and irrigation in the

coastal area of the Nile Delta

employment and income of the households livelihood sustainability and food security.

national agronomist conduct an assessment on the likely impact of CC on cropproduction in coastal area of Nile Delta. More specifically

assess, qualitatively, the likely changes in:

cropped area, productivity and production of principalcrops

land use, cropping pattern and crop mix, and water availability and irrigation in the coastal area of

the Nile Delta

assess the changes in cropping practices, its economicand environmental sustainability and viability,

particularly for small and marginal landholders

As a consequence and for implementation in the remainder of the project duration to be as

efficient as possible, there is an urgent need to carefully review the detailed tasks assigned

to the national and international consultants and to also ensure that these missions will as


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much as possible be overlapping, thus ensuring a close coordination of the consultant

inputs. On the other hand, this review must inevitably take into account that there are only

about 7 months left until project closure by the end of September 2012 (see section 2.1

below). This is to say that the planning of the consultant inputs still to recruited should be

based on a sound identification of the specific results that can realistically be achieved by

project closure. Accordingly, it might not be feasible to engage in larger scale primary data

collection activities such as extended farm or household surveys, given the substantial time

inputs required for their preparation, field implementation and the subsequent data entry and

analysis. Instead, top priority should be attached to using readily available secondary data

sources to the extent possible, and to examine the opportunity and possibility of

complementing such secondary data analysis by carrying out some specific case studies. In

this regard, more detailed proposals and conclusions are developed are presented in chapters

3 and 4.

2 Progress of project implementation

2.1 Introductory remarks

The project started on October 1st, 2010, with a total duration of 24 months, i.e. project

closure date is September 30, 2012. While the effective start of project activities has seen

some important delays for several reasons that might first of all be attributed to setting up

the rather complex institutional and project management arrangements, there can be no

doubt that subsequent implementation of the projects key activities was severely affected

by the January / February 2011 revolution and the ensuing deep political crises and turmoil,

generally leading to a climate of insecurity as well as frequent changes at key management

and decision-making levels in almost all Government institutions, including MALR and

ARC.

It should be noted that the project inception workshop was only held on December 26, 2011,

i.e. almost 15 months after project start, bringing together a total of 58 participants and key

resource persons, mostly from MALR and its various entities and few representatives from

MWRI and other specialized institutions.

However, soil and water monitoring activities carried out by SWERI already started in June

2011 and so far represent the projects most important activity with respect to the main

project objective of improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR

and saltwater intrusion on groundwater tables as well as groundwater and soil salinity in the

coastal area of the Nile Delta.

2.2 Soil and water monitoring by SWERI

Carrying out the soil and water monitoring activities has been assigned to SWERI on the

basis of 2 letters of agreement (LoA) signed to this effect with the FAO Regional Office:

1. LoA 1: Installation of a total of 75 bathometers (or observation wells) to monitorgroundwater levels as well as water and soil quality in the coastal belt extending

from Alexandria to Port Said. This activity was successfully completed in June

2011. It should be noted that in the meantime, SWERI using its own budget has


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added approximately 30 bathometers with a view of increasing the sample size (see

figure 1 on the following page).

2. LoA 2: Monitoring and data collection for the following parameters: groundwaterdepth / depth-to-water table; ground water salinity, and soil salinity. Data collection

started immediately after having completed the installation of the 75 bathometers,

i.e. also in June 2011 and since then is on-going.

With respect to soil salinity, it is envisaged to carry out during the whole project period a

total of 3 sample collections. The first soil samples were taken in June 2011 and the data

have been analyzed. The second sampling exercise is currently being prepared, and the third

and final sampling is to be done in time before project closure in September 2012.

Groundwater monitoring is done on a bi-weekly basis for 2 parameters: (1) groundwater

depth / depth to water table; and (2) water salinity (restricted however to measuring only

electrical conductivity (Ec), without analyzing salt composition and especially sodium

contents). The first monitoring period extended over 5 months from June to October 2011.

Data analysis has been completed, raw data sets are available and results have beenpresented mainly in a map format (see figures 2 and 3 as examples for the results observed

on June 15th, 2011, for both groundwater salinity and depth-to-water table).

Figure 1: Location of the SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils and

groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.


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Figure 2: Groundwater salinity-SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

(15(6/2012)



Figure 3: Depth-to-water table - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

(15(6/2012)




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It can thus be concluded that by now the following activities and expected outputs of the

initial project logical framework have been effectively achieved (see logical framework in

annex 3):

Output 1: CC impact monitoring sites identified

1.2 Selection of representative pilot area along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta1.3 Monitoring sites and network installation points selected by month 5.

However, due to delays in the effective start of the project and the delayed recruitment of

the national and international consultants, it has to be concluded that the main preparatory

activity planned under this first project output could so far not be completed, i.e. the review

of all previous work done on sea level changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil

and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta (activity 1.1; see annex 3).

Output 2: CC impact monitoring network installed, checked and geo-referenced

The only activity under this second project output, i.e. CC impact monitoring network

installed and functional by month 5, has been completed, although with a delay of about 4months as compared to the initial work plan, and the output can be considered as achieved.

For implementing this activity, SWERI was assisted as planned by the national GIS and

Remote Sensing consultant (from the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space

Science; NARSS), particularly in selecting and geo-referencing the monitoring sites as well

as map production.

Following the review of the results achieved so far and the various meetings that the

consultant had in the course of this mission, the major comments applying to the projects

core activity of soil and water monitoring are summarized as follows.

The field visit to Kafr el Sheikh and the discussion with the responsible SWERI staff based

at the Sakha Agricultural Experiment Station has shown that the initial technical designparameters (see figure 4) for installing the bathometers could not be respected.

Due particularly to farmers resistance, the initial design shown in figure 4 involving a

concrete base and an iron pipe casing for fixing the bathometers had to be adapted, leading

to a much simpler and less stable design with a 2.5 m PVC pipe just put into the borehole

and some sort of artificial fixing by putting soil around the upper parts of the pipe. There

seems to be a very high risk that this lack of pipe stability / fixing might translate into

important measurement errors for the depth-to-water table readings. Since the standard

design level difference of 50 cm between soil level and the top of the pipe is hardly

respected, two measurements are actually required: depth-to-water table in the pipe,

subsequently corrected by the manually read difference between soil level and the top of thepipe (which might vary from bathometer to bathometer, but also for the same bathometer

over time, due to farmers tampering with the artificial pipe fixing).


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Figure 4: Initial bathometer design parameters

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils andgroundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

It should also be noted that the SWERI researchers who have been entrusting with the

regular soil and water monitoring activities at filed level so far have not been provided with

GIS equipment to facilitate field data collection and the proper identification of the

monitoring wells (and thus reduce potential data collection errors).

Since the implementation of the National Drainage Project (NDP), the Egyptian Public

Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP) under MWRI has started similar groundwater and

soil monitoring activities all over Egypt in order to evaluate the effective achievement of thespecific objectives generally assigned to drainage improvement measures, i.e. keeping

groundwater tables in the root zones at minimum levels that are required for ensuring

adequate plant growth. Although data collection frequencies are not the same, EPADPs

monitoring and evaluation (M&E) activities have been based more or less on the same

indicators, measuring at least depth-to-water table and water / soil quality (as well as the

development of the yields of major crops). It is somewhat that EPADPs long-standing

experience (at least more than 10 years of practical implementation experience) in carrying

out these M&E activities obviously not been taken into account for designing the soil and

water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI under the project, e.g. in terms of

methodological approaches, appropriate selection of monitoring locations in addition / as a

complement to the existing EPADP monitoring network, sharing of M&E results obtainedso far etc..

The currently existing soil and water monitoring network of EPADP is at present not known

in detail (in terms of the total number and geographical distribution of observation wells).

The same is true for the detailed data collection methods and results available so far.

However, it can reasonably be assumed that there should be an important number of such

EPADP monitoring sites located in the Delta region, simply because the latterlocated at


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the very tail-end and downstream part of the whole Nile system - undoubtedly is amongst

the areas most seriously affected by poor drainage conditions and associated water and soil

salinity problems. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that there might be some geographical

overlap between the EPADP monitoring sites and the bathometers installed by SWERI in

the study area that has been selected for the project based primarily on its vulnerability to

SLR and the expected negative impacts of seawater intrusion. Hence, there is a dire and

urgent need to contact EPADP as soon as possible with a view of exchanging experience

and available data, and to also explore the opportunities and possibilities for increasing

future cooperation and coordination. Although, the initiative has been taken by the

consultant at the very early start of his mission, it has not been possible to arrange for a

meeting with EPADP in the course of the mission.

In 2010, a research project entitled Climate change and seawater intrusion in relation to soil

productivity in the Nile Delta has apparently been approved under the Agricultural

Research for Development Fund (ARDF). This project initially was to start in March 2011,

but was then stopped as a result of the political crisis. The main activity envisaged in the

frame of this research project has been the installation of a total of about 600 observationwells across the 8 Governorates of the Nile Delta region, of which about 300 shallow wells

up to 2.5 m depth, as well as another 300 wells with depths ranging from 5 to 30 or even 50

m. Although this research project has been prepared and approved almost in parallel to this

TCP, with SWERI also acting as main executing and implementing agency, there obviously

has been very little coordination and exchange, especially as regards the methodological

approaches for conducting such groundwater and soil monitoring activities.

At present, the mandate for carrying out groundwater monitoring and modeling activities

and related applied research is mainly vested with the Groundwater Research Institute

(GWRI) of NRWC / MWRI. In addition, important research activities on the interaction of

SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta area have also been carried out by the CoastalResearch Institute (CORI) for a long time and there is a vast body of data and results

available from this research. More recently, CORI in close cooperation with GWRI as well

as the Drainage Research Institute (also under NWRC/MWRI) completed a research project

on the assessment of the impacts of CC and SLR on the drainage system of the Nile Delta,

in cooperation with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) from Canada. 1

It seems that at project start and prior to embarking upon the SWERI soil and water

monitoring activities, no comprehensive conceptual framework has been developed on the

potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on groundwater tables, water and soil

salinity and irrigated agriculture, and such a framework is still lacking today. There is no

doubt that a proper understanding of these very complex interactions and its underlyingcause-effect- relationships can only be achieved on the basis of an integrated and multi-

disciplinary approach. Accordingly, the development of such a conceptual framework

inevitably would have required bringing together specialized key resource persons from all

relevant disciplines and institutions, both within MALR and from outside, particularly the

1It should be added that in EgyptsSecond National Communication on Climate Change, the mandate for carrying out the

priority research projects on studying and assessing the impacts of sea water intrusion on changing water quality in the

shallow aquifers in the coastal areas has been assigned to the specialized NWRC institutes under MWRI.


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various research institutes established under the NWRC of MWRI (GWRI, CORI, DRI,

ECRI etc.).

As already indicated in the previous sections, the main preparatory project activity

concerning the in-depth review of all previous work done on the potential impacts of SLR

and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta could not be successfully achieved during the

projects first 2 months as initially envisaged. As a direct consequence, the design of the soil

and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI did not benefit from such a systematic

review. For this design, the results and experiences already available, particularly with

respect to methodological issues of data collection and analysis, including the appropriate

selection of monitoring sites, seem to have been hardly taken into consideration and

obviously did not sufficiently guide this research process.

It is also safe to observe that especially the national hydrology consultant (Prof. Ibrahim

Abd El Magid El Shinnawy, Director of CORI) and the national CC consultant (Prof.

Mohamed El Raey, Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, Centre for Climate Change

and Risk Reduction, University of Alexandria) have only been recruited when the soil and

water monitoring activities of SWERI had already started. Consequently, both specialists

have not been consulted and associated for identifying the final selection criteria of the

monitoring sites.

Following the discussions that the international CC consultant had in the course of the

mission with the national hydrology consultant, the national consultant CC, as well as other

key resource persons from DRI and ECRI, is has to be concluded that, based on the current

research design, the soil and water monitoring activities of SWERI will most probably not

provide the data and results that are urgently needed for improving the current knowledge

base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural

production / productivity. Furthermore, these data will definitely not be sufficient for

successfully carrying out groundwater modelling and simulation activities as envisaged

under the project (see key project outcome 3.2 in annex 3), as long as these are not

completed and correlated with other relevant data.

It is therefore suggested that a workshop be organized as soon as possible by ARC / CLAC

with the major objective of establishing the conceptual framework required for ensuring that

the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI. This workshop should

first of all provide the opportunity for jointly reviewing and adapting the current research

design as requested, taking into account the full set of parameters that are needed for

successfully completing this project activity. There seems to be a large consensus that

looking at the shallow groundwater tables only is insufficient to fully capture the complexinteractions of SLR, saltwater intrusion and irrigated agriculture. Hence, it will be required

to assess these impacts on the entire aquifer columns, their basic characteristics and

dynamics, based on data that are available or regularly collected from the existing

groundwater monitoring network (including deep water tables) and by using available

groundwater models. Furthermore, these interactions can only be understood and simulated

for assessing potential future changes when irrigation and drainage conditions are also taken

into account, as these are key determinants of the parameters currently monitored by SWERI


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(mainly irrigation water availability / irrigation applications in terms of quantity, quality and

timing as well as performance of the drainage systems and related improvement measures).

Accordingly, the suggested (not exhaustive or exclusive) list of participating institutions for

this workshop (with duration of 2 to 3 days) in addition to ARC / CLAC and SWERI should

mainly include:

1. Groundwater Research Institute (GWRI);2. Coastal Research Institute (CORI);3. Drainage Research Institute (DRI);4. Environment and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI);5. Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP);6. Drainage Authority of MWRI;7. Irrigation Sector / Irrigation Improvement Sector of MWRI;8. Management and M&E Unit of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and

Management Project (IIIMP);

9. Water Quality Unit of MWRI;10.Project Manager of the Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea

Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (CORI);

11.Specialists from national Universities;12.International and national project consultants (as far as possible).

There can also be no doubt that a total observation period of only about 15 months under the

project will be absolutely insufficient to gather representative and final data and results for

improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water

intrusion on groundwater and soils in the Nile Delta. An extension of this soil and water

monitoring activity beyond project closure in September 2012 is therefore indispensable and

has to be prepared in time (especially in terms of budget allocation for the next fiscal year

starting in July 2012). It is therefore expected that this workshop will provide the basis forjointly discussing how these activities can be continued beyond September 2012, including

the adequate definition of the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the

various stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking. Ideally, the workshop

participants should also jointly contribute to drafting a memorandum of understanding to be

subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI.

2.3 Institutional and project management arrangements

As laid out in the project document, the Agriculture Research Centre (ARC) of MALR as

the main FAO partner institution for this TCP was to assume the responsibility for the

overall coordination of the projects activities, including general planning purposes,provision of guidance as well as implementation supervision at the national level. However,

following the general political crises that started with the early 2011 revolution, it seems

that ARC has hardly played any major role in effectively coordinating and steering the main

project activities. In fact, there currently seems to be an important institutional vacuum at

higher ARC management and decision-making levels, which also has been deepened by

frequent staff turnover and lack of political guidance at higher management levels.


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At project appraisal, an inter-institutional Steering Committee (SC) for the project chaired

by the Chairman of ARC and comprising all the concerned institutions had already been

established. It had also been agreed that the SC would be responsible for coordinating,

planning, guiding and overseeing the project activities, with a view to ensure timely and

efficient implementation of the project, in particular. Furthermore, the SC was also expected

to serve as a main channel for inter-institutional communication. However, its seem that

since project inception the SC has never been able to actively take over its assigned roles

and responsibilities, and there is ample evidence that the SC did never meet regularly as

planned at project appraisal.

It can thus be concluded that since its inception, project implementation has been negatively

affected by the fact that the rather complex institutional and management structure has never

been adequately put in place or at least has not functioned properly. Accordingly, there is a

substantial lack of overall project coordination and steering due to ARCs limited

involvement so far, and the absence of any guidance by the SC, especially as regards the

required coordination both within MALR and other departments or sector Ministries.

On the other hand the discussion in section 2.2. above has clearly shown that forsuccessfully implementing future project activities and achieving the expected specific

project results and outcome in the remaining project lifetime, improved coordination

between the project executing agencies and other institutions outside MALR is of

paramount importance and undoubtedly has to be considered a major precondition for

successful project completion. Hence, it is recommended to reactivate and reinforce the

currently existing project organisational structure and institutional as well as management

arrangements as soon as possible, requiring especially that ARC and the SC take a much

more proactive stance. This should also include reviewing and adapting as required the

detailed tasks assigned to the various stakeholders, based on past experience and also taking

into account major institutional and organisational bottlenecks (e. g. such as the current non-

existence of CCIC).

3 Main activities of the consultant and preliminary results and suggestions

3.1 Review of previous work on the impacts of sea level rise and saltwater intrusion

As indicated in section 1.3, the task of reviewing all previous work on the impacts of CC in

Egypt and in particular the coastal area of the Nile Delta has been jointly assigned to the

international CC consultant, the national CC consultant, the international socioeconomics

consultant as well as the national hydrogeology consultant. There is thus a need to make

sure th

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