first nuclear age, 1945-90s 1. 1. bipolarity – balance 2. 2. deterrence – vulnerability 3. 3....
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First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s
1. Bipolarity– balance
2. Deterrence– vulnerability
3. Arms Control– Managing
rivalry
4. Rationality
Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present
1. Multipolarity• asymmetry
2. Deterrence• missile defense
3. Arms Control• coercion
4. Rationality
Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present
1. Multipolarity• asymmetry
2. Deterrence• missile defense
3. Arms Control• coercion
4. Rationality
1. Multipolarity
More players in the gameSeveral levels of relationshipsAlmost all are asymmetricA.Strategic LevelB.Regional LevelC.Terrorism?
Table 1. Estimated global nuclear weapons inventories, 2014.
Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2014;0096340214547619
Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
A. Strategic level
US and Russia: rough equalityStrategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002
New START Treaty 2010
China Chinese nuclear capability Chinese nuclear doctrine US Annual Report on Chinese Military Pow
er
Table 1. Chinese nuclear forces, 2013.
Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2013;69:79-85
Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Chinese MRBM and ICBM Rangesfrom US Report on Chinese Military Power, p. 82
B. Regional Level
South Asia Middle East East Asia
South Asia
India Missile Ranges
Pakistani Missile Ranges
The Problems? North Korea: Three nuclear tests
• October 9, 2006• May 25, 2009• February 12, 2013
Iran: No tests yet, but• 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate• 2013 IAEA Report• 2013 BBC Analysis
C. Terrorism? AQAM US Invasion of Iraq 2003 Coup in Pakistan Iranian allies: Hezbollah?
2. Deterrence
Three Modifications to Cold War DeterrenceDealing with the regional threatA.Missile DefenseB.Prompt Global StrikeC.Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States
A. Missile DefenseStrategic Defense Initiative:Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983
NMD: Deterrence by DenialNational Missile Defense Act of 1999US Missile Defense AgencyThe missile defense systemNMD test videosBMD Review 2010
GW Bush and Obama
B. Prompt Global StrikeGW Bush Nuclear Posture Review 2001SummaryObama Nuclear Posture Review 2010
US Strategic Command: JFCC Global Strike
Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.” Congressional Research Service. April 26, 2013
Why Conventional PGS?
Speed Vulnerability of forward bases Preemption Option to stay below nuclear
threshold
C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States
3. Arms Control
Strategic Arms Control: US and Russia
• Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002
• New START Treaty 2010
US and China: nothing
Regional Powers?
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968 (1970)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Problems?
Never Signed NPT Israel India Pakistan
Violated Treaty Provisions Iraq Iran North Korea
Coercion, Sanctions, Talks
North Korea Six Party Talks UNSC Resolution 1718 (2006)
Iran P5 + 1 Talks UNSC Resolution 1929 (2010)
Missile Technology Control Regime
4. Rationality
If leaders of these states are rational…• Extortion is their policy
If leaders of these states are irrational…• How do we deal with them?
Larger QuestionDoes Deterrence Work?GW Bush answer
Terrorists Rationality?
Hamas or AQAM? Rationality of groups that use
suicide bombing?