Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystemsmanaging impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoriesNOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoriesCraig A. Stow, Stephen B. Brandt , Thomas E. Croley II, Julianne Dyble, Gary L. Fahnenstiel, Craig A. Stow, Stephen B. Brandt , Thomas E. Croley II, Julianne Dyble, Gary L. Fahnenstiel,

Thomas F. Nalepa, Steven A. Pothoven, Henry A. VanderploegThomas F. Nalepa, Steven A. Pothoven, Henry A. VanderploegMichigan State UniversityMichigan State University

Scott D. Peacor, Michael D. Kaplowitz, Frank LupiScott D. Peacor, Michael D. Kaplowitz, Frank LupiUniversity of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

Tomas O. Höök (lead), Dimitry Beletsky, Carlo De Marchi, Tomas O. Höök (lead), Dimitry Beletsky, Carlo De Marchi, Thomas H. Johengen, Donna R. KashianThomas H. Johengen, Donna R. Kashian

University of AkronUniversity of AkronPeter J. LavrentyevPeter J. Lavrentyev Limno-Tech, Inc.Limno-Tech, Inc.Joseph V. DepintoJoseph V. Depinto

Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan UniversityChansheng HeChansheng He

Michigan Department of Natural ResourcesMichigan Department of Natural ResourcesTammy J. NewcombTammy J. Newcomb

Michigan Department of Environmental QualityMichigan Department of Environmental QualityJames H. BredinJames H. Bredin

First –First –

Thank you for attendingThank you for attending

Thank you for helping put this Thank you for helping put this togethertogether

21 Proposals – 1 funded21 Proposals – 1 funded

$3.76 million for 5 years$3.76 million for 5 years

Some real opportunitiesSome real opportunities

And some challengesAnd some challenges

!!

Workshop GoalsWorkshop Goals

Meet/Network/DiscussMeet/Network/DiscussBegin to organize current knowledgeBegin to organize current knowledge

ProductsProductsInitial conceptual (cause/effect) modelInitial conceptual (cause/effect) modelWork plan for first 2 yearsWork plan for first 2 yearsProposal heavy on conceptProposal heavy on conceptLight on specific tasksLight on specific tasks

Modeling synthesisModeling synthesis

Ecosystemdrivers

Ecosystemdrivers

Ecosystem characterization (data)

Scientific evaluation

&Stakeholderassessment

B) Guidance for future management actions

A) Guidance for future empirical efforts

Figure 1. Conceptual diagram describing the Adaptive Integrative Framework (AIF) approach.

Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF):Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF):Research Driven by Management NeedsResearch Driven by Management Needs

1900s 2007

This process in Saginaw Bay didn’t begin with this proposal

datamodel

data

model

Based on Adaptive ManagementBased on Adaptive Management

Muck in the 1920sManagement concerns aren’t new

1978 GLWQA

Hear ye! Hear ye!

By Joint ProclamationHenceforth and foreverafter

Saginaw Bay shall meet a target phosphorus load of:440 tonnes/year

which probably translates to about 15 ug/L

7 journal articles 1973 – 1978258 since 1978

The information was sparse:“Overall, the data is insufficient to quantitatively document any changes in bay quality with time. … These conclusions are very speculative and were drawn from limited information.”from: Saginaw Bay: An Evaluation of Existing and Historical Conditions, a 1974 report to US EPA by Paul Freedman.

GLWQA - 4 Models provided guidance:GLWQA - 4 Models provided guidance:

(Vollenweider, DiToro et al., Chapra, Bierman et al.)(Vollenweider, DiToro et al., Chapra, Bierman et al.)

Goal - meet drinking water taste/odor criteriaGoal - meet drinking water taste/odor criteriaSupported by info available at that timeSupported by info available at that time

The system has changedThe system has changed

One of original models has been One of original models has been updated – will help launch/support this updated – will help launch/support this

studystudy

New models will be based on existing New models will be based on existing and new informationand new information

Public/Stakeholder interests are differentPublic/Stakeholder interests are different

Management concerns have evolvedManagement concerns have evolved

Opportunity to reorganize/revisit existing Opportunity to reorganize/revisit existing knowledgeknowledge

We’ve proposed 4 parallel modeling approaches

Coupled bio-physical 3D

models

Empirically based

(Bayesian)

Empirically based

(Bayesian)

Simple statistical (e.g.

regression)

Simple statistical (e.g.

regression)

Artificial Neural

network

EcosystemStressors

Ecos

yste

m

Mod

els

Ecosystem Characterization

Fish community dynamics

Water quality &

Human health

Ecos

yste

m

endp

oint

s

• Land & Resource use

• Climate Change• Invasive Species

• Watershed model• Hydrodynamic model• Biophysical data and

processes

Recommendations for ecosystem characterization•Experimental•Monitoring•Synthesis

Socio-economic integration to guide management•Economic models•Public preference •Workshops

Model…?Model…?““toys to tune our intuition” (Stuart Kaufmann)toys to tune our intuition” (Stuart Kaufmann)““tool to evaluate logical outcome of a given set of assumptions”tool to evaluate logical outcome of a given set of assumptions”(Rob Peters)(Rob Peters)

Short-term:Short-term:•Organize what we knowOrganize what we know•What we don’t knowWhat we don’t know•Prioritize what we need to knowPrioritize what we need to know

Longer-term:Longer-term:•Evaluate approaches to meet management objectivesEvaluate approaches to meet management objectives

Watershed inputs(TP)

Algae(taste & odor)

Fish(Sander vitreus)

?

My Conceptual Model…

•Model can always be made more detailed•Tricky part - balance detail & real knowledge•Model will almost certainly be modified as we proceed•Should suggest where we need data/experimentation to clarify/quantify relationships•Serve as template/comparison for quantitative ecosystem models

• Total phytoplankton production directly proportional to external P load and inversely proportional to zebra mussel density

• Blue-green production directly proportional to external P load and zebra mussel density

• Selective rejection of blue-greens by zebra mussels necessary to enhance blue-green production, late summer P recycle also necessary

• Zebra mussel invasion alter total system primary production, but shifted primary production from pelagic to the benthic compartment due to increase in water clarity

From the existing model

Res

pons

e V

aria

ble

Expected disturbance-recovery trajectory

Two disturbance events

Disturbance of an impaired system

Paine et al. 1998

Compound Disturbances,Multiple stressors,

and Ecological Surprises

Time

New steady state

New steady state

Recovery

Source:Source:Scheffer, M., F. Westley, W. A. Brock, and M. Holmgren. 2002. Dynamic interaction of societies and Scheffer, M., F. Westley, W. A. Brock, and M. Holmgren. 2002. Dynamic interaction of societies and ecosystems- linking theories from ecology, economy, and sociology. In Panarchy. L. H. Gunderson, ecosystems- linking theories from ecology, economy, and sociology. In Panarchy. L. H. Gunderson, and C. S. Holling eds. Island Press. Washington.and C. S. Holling eds. Island Press. Washington.

Where is Saginaw Bay in this continuum?Where is Saginaw Bay in this continuum?

Schedule for workshop

Day 1Next we’ll hear from the management agencies

This will help to clarify the main endpoints of concern

Then presentations highlighting the stressor/endpoint relationshipsWatershed/nutrients/physical forcingLower food web/algae/benthosUpper food web

BreakThen presentations to discuss public concerns and workplan

Human DimensionsLogistics

LunchBreakout Groups

I – clarify associationsII – clarify scales

Dinner – Grizzly Peak

Day 2Start with recap and discussionWork groups to address:

Field PlansModelingWorkshopsAnything else?

Wrap up at noon

ImportantThis is the beginning of our discussion

Being Adaptive will be key

AIF – Good Communication

The BeginningThe Beginning