flood risk modelling and assessment for community resilience
TRANSCRIPT
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Flood risk modelling and assessment for community resilience
Albert S. Chen
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hydrological 1D hydraulic
2D hydraulic 3D CFD
Flood modelling approaches
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Fast sewer & overland flow models
Simple transition rules
Parallel computing (GPU, multicore CPU)
Good accuracy and speed up
Large domain & Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis
CADDIES
Austin et al. 2014, J Hydroinformatics; Ghimire et al. 2013 , J Hydroinformatics
Guidolin et al. 2016 Environmental Modelling & Software
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Flood modelling at city scale
Global Innovation Initiative
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Climate change
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reducing the risks of damage & loss of life from surface water & flash flooding
Flooding From Intense Rainfall
WP1: improved forecasts of
convective rainfallWP2: understanding catchment
susceptibility to FFIR
WP3: Improving operational risk
management capacity
Newcastle 28.06.12
Alnick 28.06.12
Boscastle 16.08.04
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Risk assessment
Flood impact Urbanisation Health impact
TransportationCritical
infrastructureCascading
effects
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Flood impact assessment
Unified flood risk assessment toolkit and framework
Development and evaluation of flood resilient strategies
System dynamic analysis
Powell et al. 2016, European J Operational Research
Hammond et al. 2015, Urban Water J
Hammond et al. 2013, Urban Water J
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Chen et al. 2016, Natural Hazards
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Chen et al. 2016, Natural Hazards
Barcelona Taipei Nice
BeijingDhaka
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Urban growth
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Urban growth
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Health impacts
2D simulation of transport/mixing of pollutants surcharging from sewers in surface flood water
Result: concentration distributions of different pathogens
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36710741
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Traffic disruption
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Traffic modelling
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Future transportation
Urbanisation & megacities
Global car production in 2014 : 90Mn
75% vehicles will have different levels of autonomous by 2040
£51Bn/y benefit by 2030
Connected autonomous vehicle
Individual optimum vs System optimum
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Flood impact to communities
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Highlight CICritical Infrastructure
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Cascading effects
Flooding
Transportation
Energy supply
Water supply
Waste water
Tele-comm.
Health
Emergency response
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Acknowledgement
FFIR
SINATRA / TENDERLYGlobal Innovation Initiative
CADDIES
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AlbertChenExeter
@AlbertChen_CWS
ContactDr Albert S. Chen
www.exeter.ac.uk/cws
Thank you & Questions?