Focus on Prince William County

Virginia Election 2013

David B MillerGeographyNVCC-Alexandria

Prince William: Growing Fast!

Prince William County’s Population Growth

The county, an engine of Virginia’s population growth,

leads Virginia in job growth.

PWC: Minority-Majority County

1990-2011 TrendDOWN

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The 2010 Census confirmed that Prince William County (PWC) is the first majority-minority county in Northern

Virginia, with 48.7% of the population being non-Hispanic and White.

Political Makeup of the County

Virginia Senate Districts inPrince William County36th = Democratic senator13th = Republican senator

13th

28th

29th39th

36th

Virginia House of Delegates Districts in Prince William Co.52nd = Democratic delegate13th = Republican delegate

52nd

87th

13th

40th

50th

51st

31st

2nd

State senate districts reflect the county’s population diversity, with 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans, but the House of Delegates seats 7

Republicans and and only 1 Democrat. Democrats are mounting serious challenges to Republican incumbents in the 51st and 87th districts in 2013.

Voting Trends: PresidentIn political campaigns, Prince William County is seen as a battleground.

Until 2008 it was reliably Republican, but a larger and more diverse voter base favored President Obama in 2008 and 2012. The county’s population has increased by some 30,000 since the last governor’s election in 2009.

Early morning and long lines on Election Day 2012

Voting Trends: Statewide ElectionsDemocrat Tim Kaine went from winning the county by just 1,200 votes

in the 2005 governor’s race to triumphing by 28,000 votes in the 2012 U.S. Senate race. However, in the 2005 and 2009 off year elections, with

lower voter turnouts, Republicans won 5 out of 6 statewide races.

The 2013 Race for Governor

Republican Ken Cuccinelli would seem to have the advantage in Prince William County:

• He and his family reside in Prince William County.• When he was elected Virginia’s Attorney General in

2009, he won the county by 10,000 votes over his Democratic rival.

• The county has favored Republican candidates in past off year elections.

Voter turnout would make a difference statewide and in Prince William County. The 2009 governor’s race recorded the lowest voter turnout in

decades (40% of registered voters). The county is critical to both campaigns, and both candidates will come to the county seat for an

August 9 debate.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe will need to fight for county votes:

• He ran for governor in 2009 and knows where to get votes.

• McAuliffe needs to market himself in a county that knows Ken Cuccinelli better.

• Toward the end of July, McAuliffe had a $5 million advantage in fundraising, which will help promote him and his ideas.

• Growing ethnic diversity can bring more Democratic votes.