focused on world class performance · earnings. similarly, management views the ratio of funds from...

22
FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE CMS Annual Update July 9, 2018

Upload: others

Post on 16-Mar-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE

CMS Annual Update

July 9, 2018

Page 2: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

This presentation is made as of the date hereof and contains “forward-looking statements” as defined in Rule 3b-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of

1934, Rule 175 of the Securities Act of 1933, and relevant legal decisions. The forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. All

forward-looking statements should be considered in the context of the risk and other factors detailed from time to time in CMS Energy’s and Consumers

Energy’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Forward-looking statements should be read in conjunction with “FORWARD-LOOKING

STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION” and “RISK FACTORS” sections of CMS Energy’s and Consumers Energy’s most recent Form 10-K and as updated

in reports CMS Energy and Consumers Energy file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CMS Energy’s and Consumers Energy’s

“FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION” and “RISK FACTORS” sections are incorporated herein by reference and discuss important

factors that could cause CMS Energy’s and Consumers Energy’s results to differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. CMS Energy and

Consumers Energy undertake no obligation to update any of the information presented herein to reflect facts, events or circumstances after the date

hereof.

The presentation also includes non-GAAP measures when describing CMS Energy’s results of operations and financial performance. A reconciliation of

each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the appendix and posted on our website at www.cmsenergy.com.

CMS Energy provides historical financial results on both a reported (GAAP) and adjusted (non-GAAP) basis and provides forward-looking modeling on

an adjusted basis. During an oral presentation, references to “earnings” are on an adjusted basis. Adjustments could include items such as discontinued

operations, asset sales, impairments, restructuring costs, regulatory items from prior years, or other items. Management views adjusted earnings as a

key measure of the company’s present operating financial performance and uses adjusted earnings for external communications w ith analysts and

investors. Internally, the company uses adjusted earnings to measure and assess performance. Because the company is not able to estimate the

impact of specific line items, which have the potential to significantly impact, favorably or unfavorably, the company's reported earnings in future periods,

the company is not providing reported earnings guidance nor is it providing a reconciliation for the comparable future period earnings. The adjusted

earnings should be considered supplemental information to assist in understanding our business results, rather than as a substitute for the reported

earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

performance and its financial position, and uses the ratio for external communications with analysts and investors. Because the company does not

establish its target FFO/Average Debt ratio based on a specific target numerator and target denominator, the company is unable to provide a

reconciliation to a comparable GAAP financial measure for future periods.

Investors and others should note that CMS Energy routinely posts important information on its website and considers the Investor Relations section,

www.cmsenergy.com/investor-relations, a channel of distribution.

2

Page 3: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Welcome . . .

3

Safety Tailboard

Agenda:

. . . and thank you for your support.

• IRP

• Clean & Lean

• EV & Autonomous Vehicles

Patti

• Commissioner Eubanks Discussion

• Financial Review

• Wrap-up / Q&A

Rejji

Patti & Rejji

PROFIT PLANET PEOPLE

Page 4: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

The Triple Bottom Line . . .

4

. . . world class performance delivering hometown service.

PERFORMANCE

PEOPLE PLANET

PEOPLE • PLANET • PROFIT

PROFIT

Page 5: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Filed Integrated Resource Plan “ IRP”. . .

. . . seizing a once in-a-generation opportunity to reshape Michigan's energy future. 5

Overview

File Date: June 15, 2018

Expected Order Date: Q2 2019

Case No.: U-20165

Capital Investment Opportunities:

• No Change to 5-year, $10 Bn Plan

(IRP includes REP* spend of ~$1 Bn)

• $3 Bn opportunity in 10-year Plan

Financial Incentives:

• Energy Efficiency, ~$45 MM

pre-tax annually (vs. $34 MM)

• Demand Response, filed 5/31

Modular

Fully utilize

assets

O&M

Fuel

Lower Risk

Demand

EE & DR

Modular

Modular

Supply

Clean and Lean

No Certificate of

Necessity Required

< 225 MW

_ _ _ _ _

*Renewable Energy Plan

Page 6: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Annual Use of Supply . . .

. . . demonstrates waste in the system . 6

Page 7: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Solar’s Unique Characteristics . . .

. . . offer the best approach to replace future retirements over time. 7

5:00 p.m. 6:00 a.m. 6:00 a.m.

EV Overnight Charging

9,000

(MW)

Economic

Development

Solar matches peak

system load; 50%

capacity credit

(Zonal Resource Credits)

Solar

Existing Load

Potential New Load

EE & DR Programs

Shave the Peak

Average Daily

Load

Page 8: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

8

Industry-Leading Climate Goals . . .

. . . breakthrough thinking for our planet.

Page 9: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Protecting Michigan’s Environment . . .

. . . for future generations.

Reducing Carbon Intensity

-100

-50

0Today 2024 2032 2040

Karn

1 & 2

Retirement

(2023)

Campbell

1 & 2

Retirement

(2031)

Campbell

3

Retirement

(2039)

38%

~45%

~70%

> 90% 0%

25%

50%

'18 '21 '24 '27 '30 '33 '36 '39

Adding Renewable Energy

cv

2020 2040 2030

43%

Renewables

(Since 2005)

%

15% RPS

By 2022

9

Page 10: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Future Capacity Resources . . .

. . . reshapes our generation fleet. 10

Retirements Replacements

Demand

Response

Filer City

Conversion

Energy

Efficiency

Wind

Retirements Replacements

Solar

Demand

Response

Palisades

(2022)

Karn 1 & 2

(2023) Solar

Near-Term Plan Long-Term Plan

MCV

(2030)

Campbell 1 & 2

(2031)

Karn 3 & 4

(2031)

Campbell 3

(2039)

Battery

1,500

(ZRC)

5,000

(ZRC)

6,000 MWs

Energy

Efficiency

Existing

Surplus

Other Small

PPAs and

Load Growth

Lower

Price

Customer Savings

~$30 MM

REP

Plan

_ _ _ _ _

a Karn 1&2 O&M Savings

a

Page 11: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

11

Consumers Energy EV Program . . .

. . . that we call PowerMiDrive.

• Three-year program of initial infrastructure

investment with estimated program costs of

$7.5 million

• Run as rebate programs, with rebate

terms dictating maintenance, equipment

choice, and utility data/demand response

access

• Streamlined rate structure, including a

new three-period time-of-use rate that

encourages home EV charging during off-

peak and super off-peak hours

Overview

Residential Charging Rebate up to $500; no limit on number of rebates 1

Public / Workplace Charging Rebate up to $5,000 per charger;

200 rebates 2

DC Fast Charging Rebate up to $70,000 per charger; limit of 24

rebates 3

Education and Outreach Resources to recruit customers/site hosts and

educate customers 4

Technology Development Development of the IT system underpinning EV

network; two FTE 5

Five Components

Page 12: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

The Triple Bottom Line . . .

12

. . . world class performance delivering hometown service.

PERFORMANCE

PEOPLE PLANET

PEOPLE • PLANET • PROFIT

PROFIT

Page 13: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Commissioner Eubanks Discussion

Page 14: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Simple, Perhaps Unique Model . . .

EPS Growth

- Cost reductions

- Sales (continued economic development & EE)

- Other (Enterprises, tax planning, etc.)

INVESTMENT SELF-FUNDED

Customer Prices “at or below inflation”

Plan

6% - 8%

. . . enhanced with tax reform.

2 - 3 pts

1

2

5 - 6 pts

< 2%

Self Funding:

14

_ _ _ _ _

a Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)

a

Page 15: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Customer Investment Plan Evolves. . .

. . . with incremental renewables.

2017 2022

$21 Bn

Rate Base Growth Large and Aging System

$15 Bn

Gas

Electric

7%

CAGR

30%

70%

40%

60%

15

Page 16: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

2013 2018E

Our Entire Cost Structure . . . Cost Components

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fuel and Power Costs

Taxes

Residential Electric Bills

Residential Gas Bills

2013 2018E

$85

100%

Capital Investments

O&M Costs

Cost of Capital

. . . provides opportunities to lower costs and create headroom.

~70%

16

Tax

Reform

Coal to

Gas / PPA

$100 $106

$62

Down 6%

Down 27%

(current dollars)

(current dollars)

a

a

a

Source: bls.gov for historical data, Bloomberg for 2018 estimate

Page 17: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

S&P /

Fitch Moody’s

S&P

(Dec. ‘16)

Moody’s

(Jun.‘18)

Fitch

(Jul. ‘17)

AA- Aa3

A+ A1

A A2

A- A3

BBB+ Baa1

BBB Baa2

BBB- Baa3

BB+ Ba1

BBB+ Baa1

BBB Baa2

BBB- Baa3

BB+ Ba1

BB Ba2

BB- Ba3

B+ B1

B B2

B- B3

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

FFO / Average Debt

. . . at solid investment-grade levels.

Credit Metrics Maintained . . .

Target Range 2018 (w/ TaxReform)

~18%

19%

17%

Present

Prior

2002

Consumers Secured

CMS Unsecured

_ _ _ _ _

a Non-GAAP

a

< 30% HoldCo Debt

17

Page 18: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Utility Driven, Low Risk Growth . . .

CMS Energy Long-Term Growth Plan

- Utility

- Enterprises

- Parent & Other

Total EPS Growth 6 - 8%

. . . delivers consistent, industry-leading financial performance.

5 - 7%

0 - 1

1 - (1)

Segments:

_ _ _ _ _

a Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)

a

• Needed system upgrades / robust backlog

• Affordable prices driven by cost controls

• Largely contracted & utility-like

• Contracted generation & renewables

• Refinancing high coupon debt

• Tax planning

• Supportive EnerBank contribution & tax shield

18

Page 19: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Consistent Growth Through . . .

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Recession

Governor (R) Governor (D)

Commission (D) Commission (R)

Recession

7% CAGR

Polar

vortex

Cold

Feb.

Mild

summer

Warm

winter

Hot

summer

Hot

summer Cold

winter

Cold

winter

Summer-

“less” Mild

summer

Mild

summer

Commission (D)

Hurt

Help

EPS

_ _ _ _ _

a Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)

a

Warm

winter

Hot

summer

Dividend

Weather

. . . recessions and adverse weather.

Commission (I)

Cold Feb.

Warm Dec.

Warm

Winter

Warm

Winter

19

b

_ _ _ _ _

b Non-GAAP

Page 20: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

Compelling Investment Thesis

Strong Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

Aging Infrastructure

Diversified Service Territory

Affordable Prices Constructive Regulation 20

Page 21: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

GAAP Reconciliation

Page 22: FOCUSED ON WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE · earnings. Similarly, management views the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO)/Average Debt as a key measure of the company’s operating financial

22

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Reported earnings (loss) per share - GAAP ($0.30) $0.64 ($0.44) ($0.41) ($1.02) $1.20 $0.91 $1.28 $1.58 $1.42 $1.66 $1.74 $1.89 $1.98 $1.64

Pretax items:

Electric and gas utility 0.32 (0.60) - - (0.06) 0.08 0.55 0.05 - 0.27 - - - 0.04 -

Tax impact (0.11) 0.21 - - (0.01) (0.03) (0.22) (0.02) - (0.10) - - - (0.01) 0.12

Enterprises 0.93 0.97 0.06 (0.12) 1.67 (0.02) 0.14 (0.05) * (0.01) * 0.05 * * *

Tax impact (0.19) (0.35) (0.02) 0.10 (0.42) * (0.05) 0.02 (0.11) * (*) (0.02) (*) (*) 0.20

Corporate interest and other 0.25 (0.06) 0.06 0.45 0.17 0.01 0.01 * - * * * * 0.02 0.01

Tax impact (0.09) 0.03 (0.02) (0.18) (0.49) (0.03) (*) (*) (0.01) (*) (*) (*) (*) (0.01) 0.20

Discontinued operations (income) loss, net (0.16) 0.02 (0.07) (0.03) 0.40 (*) (0.08) 0.08 (0.01) (0.03) * (*) (*) * *

Asset impairment charges - - 2.80 1.07 0.93 - - - - - - - - - -

Tax impact - - (0.98) (0.31) (0.33) - - - - - - - - - -

Cumulative accounting changes 0.25 0.02 - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Tax impact (0.09) (0.01) - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Adjusted earnings per share, including MTM - non-GAAP $0.81 $0.87 $1.39 $0.57 $0.84 $1.21 (a) $1.26 $1.36 $1.45 $1.55 $1.66 $1.77 $1.89 $2.02 $2.17

Mark-to-market 0.04 (0.65) 0.80

Tax impact (0.01) 0.22 (0.29)

Adjusted earnings per share, excluding MTM - non-GAAP NA $0.90 $0.96 $1.08 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

* Less than $0.01 per share.

(a) $1.25 excluding discontinued Exeter operations and accounting changes related to convertible debt and restricted stock.

CMS ENERGY CORPORATION

Earnings Per Share By Year GAAP Reconciliation

(Unaudited)