Food consumption changes in Ethiopia

Mekdim Dereje ESSP/EDRI

June 15th, 2015Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Introduction

• Rapid changes in Ethiopia’s economy (Ethiopia one of the fastest growing economies in the world)• Important increases in agricultural production in last decade • Despite improvements in economy and in agricultural production, still

important nutritional problems in the country • Purpose of the analysis: Explore patterns and changes in Ethiopia’s

food economy, based on nationally representative data

Data

• Rely on the Ethiopian Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) collected by CSA:- Year 1995/96: 11,678 households- Year 1999/00: 17,320 households- Year 2004/05: 21,560 households- Year 2010/11: 27,831 households

• Use CSA’s retail price dataset for deflation of expenditures

Food versus non-food expenditures

1) Important welfare improvements• Increasing real expenditures

overall• Food expenditures grew by 19%

between 2011 and 2000• Increasing share of non-food- 2000: 37%- 2005: 46%- 2011: 52% 2000 2005 2011

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

FoodNon-food

Birr

/cap

ita

Cereals versus non-cereals

2000 2005 20110

10203040506070

cereals non-cereals

Shar

e in

food

exp

endi

ture

s (%

)

2) Increasing diversification in the food basket• Quantities of cereals consumed is

slightly increasing: - 1996: 127 kgs/capita- 2000: 141 kgs/capita- 2005: 150 kgs/capita- 2011: 155 kgs/capita• Share of cereals in expenditures

on the decline

Non-cereal foods

3) Diversification into high-value food types• Non-cereal foods on the rise: - animal products- oils and fats - F&V - Coffee/tea/chat

2000 2005 201102468

1012

animal products oil and fatF&V enset/kochocoffee/tea/chat

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

Cereals

4) Considerable variation within cereal consumption• In kg terms, maize most important

cereals • Maize consumption increasing over

time (51 kgs in 2011; 37 kgs in 2000)• In expenditure terms, teff, wheat

and maize equally important (each about 7.5% of expenditures)• Processed cereals not important yet

overall (4.6% of expenditures)

2000 2005 20110

20406080

100120140160

teff wheat barleymaize sorghum other

kg/c

apita

/yea

r

Urban versus rural

5) Important difference between urban and rural• Urbanization low in Ethiopia but

taking off• Has implication on Ethiopia’s food

economy• Urban residents have different food

basket:- More consumption of teff and meat- Lower consumption of maize,

sorghum and enset/kocho

teff

sorghum

maize

processed cereals

animal products

enset/kocho

F&V

-1 1 3 5 7 9 111315

RuralUrban

% food expenditures

Sources of food expenditures

6) Food markets becoming more important • Food in rural areas mostly acquired

through own consumption (42%) • However, food markets (sales of

food for food purchase (34%)) already important in rural areas and very high in urban areas • Salaries/wages, sales of non-ag.

products, and remittances important in urban areas

Auto-consumption

Sale ag. products

Sale non-ag. products

Salary/wage

Remittances

Others

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

UrbanRural

% food expenditures

Calorie consumption

7) Average calorie consumption improving• Average calorie consumption 9%

higher in last decade • Cereals stays major source of

calories:- 2000: 65%- 2005: 61%- 2011: 62%• Maize makes up 20% of calorie

consumption in 2011

2000 2005 20110

500100015002000250030003500

cereals non-cereals

Kcal

/day

/adu

lt eq

uiva

lent

Prices per calorie

8) Large variation in prices paid per calorie • Maize is the cheapest source of

calories (followed closely by enset, sorghum, and root crops) • Processed cereals four times as

expensive as non-processed• Cereals half the price of non-

cereals maize

enset/kochosorghum

root cropsbarley

teffwheat

sugar and saltoil and fat

processed cereals

-0.4 0.1 0.6

Birr/kcal

Income and the share of food/cereals

9) Important difference between the poor and non-poor

Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2005 2000

Shar

e of

food

in to

tal e

xp. (

%)

Poorest

q2 q3 q4 richest0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2005 2000

Shar

e of

cer

eals

in fo

od e

xp.

(%)

Income and cereal expenditures

• Share of cereals going down for richer households• Teff (9.1% versus 4.4%) and

processed cereals (8.9% versus 2.6%) more eaten by the rich than by poor• Maize (13.0% versus 2.6%) and

sorghum (6.9% versus 1.8%) more eaten by the poor than by the rich

Poorest

q2 q3 q4 Richest05

10152025303540

teff wheatbarley maize sorghum processed cereals

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

Income and non-cereal expenditures

• Share of non-cereals going up for richer households• Animal products (17.6% versus

6.6%) more eaten by the rich than by poor• Enset/kocho (6.4% versus 1.7%)

and pulses (10.1% versus 7.6%) more eaten by the poor than by the rich

Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

animal products pulses oil and fatF&V enset/kocho coffee/tea/chatother

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

Conclusions

• Important food diet transformation in the last decade:1/ Average quantity (+23%) and calorie (+9%) consumption has improved significantly 2/ Share of cereals in expenditures on the decline (43% in 2000; 35% in 2011)3/ Consumption of more expensive foods on the rise (animal foods; processed foods; coffee/tea/chat) • Large differences in food consumption by income levels and between

urban and rural populations

Conclusions

• Implications:1/ Agricultural policy successful in promoting cereal productivity in the past; however, more demand for diversified foods; more emphasis required in the future on diversification in production2/ Agricultural markets play more important role in food economy; further stimulate these markets and better understand constraints in their functioning3/ While average improvements, part of the population no adequate diets; further continuation and strengthening of nutrition-sensitive safety nets required