EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification January – June 2008

Donor Meeting, March 4, 2008Nairobi, Kenya

Agriculture Trends in Local Cereal Production & Prices, Somalia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

Pri

ce p

er K

g (S

LS

H)

Pri

ce p

er K

g (S

oS

H)

Month

Juba Valley (Maize White)

Shabelle Valley (Maize White)

Northeast (Im ported rice)

Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red)

Central (Im ported Rice)

Northwest ( Im ported rice)

Livestock

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Pri

ce p

er H

ead

of G

oat

(SL

SH

)

Pri

ce p

er H

ead

of G

oat

(SO

SH

)

Month

Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley

Juba Valley NorthEast

Central NorthWest

0.00

500000.00

1000000.00

1500000.00

2000000.00

2500000.00

3000000.00

3500000.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total Export

5 yr Average(2002 -2006)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

SLS

H p

er U

S D

olla

r

SO

SH

per

US

Dol

lar

Month

Baidoa - SOSH

Bossaso - SOSH

Galkayo - SOSH

Mogadishu - SOSH

Hargesia - SLSH

Markets Trends in Exchange Rates & Commercial Import Prices

Devaluation of SoSh & Factors Affecting Exchange Rate

• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling• Slowdown of business activities and exports• High cost of imported commodities• Speculation and expectations• New money injected to the markets

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Pri

ce p

er U

nit

(SO

SH

)

Month

PETROL 1 Litre

SUGAR 1 Kg

VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre

RED RICE 1 Kg

SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR

Factors affecting Prices – Deyr ‘07

• Low Supply• Disrupted Markets• Reduction of trade flows• High transportation cost• Low substitute commodity• Trades coalitions• Tariffs and taxations

RISK FACTORS…•Morbidity – esp. diarrhoea• Low immunization coverage• Poor health seeking behaviors• Care practices – breastfeeding, complementary feeding practices• Shelter conditions• Dietary Diversity – mainly energy not nutrient dense

Nutrition

Median prevalence rates of ACUTE malnutrition in South Central (Nov – Dec 2007) (N=15)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

%GAM %SAM

Current Estimated Nutrition Situation Somalia

Estimated Nutrition Situation July 07 Estimated Nutrition Situation Jan 08

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification:Comparison between Gu ’07 and Deyr ’07/08

Map 2: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June 2008Map 1: Post Gu 2007 Projection, July Through December 2007

Somalia IPC TablePopulations in AFLC & HE, January – June 2008

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Affected Regions UNDP 2005 Total Population1

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region

population North 2,341,718 0 0 0 Central Galgaduud 330,057 80,000 15,000 29 Mudug 350,099 35,000 5,000 11 Sub-Total (Central) 680,156 115,000 20,000 20 South Bakool 310,627 90,000 5,000 31 Bay 620,562 25,000 0 4 Gedo 328,378 35,000 10,000 14 Hiraan 329,811 65,000 25,000 27 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 20,000 0 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 60,000 15,000 19 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 40,000 85,000 24 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 85,000 155,000 28 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 420,000 295,000 20 Banadir 901,183 . . .

GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 535,000 315,000 11

Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 850,000 11 Estimated number of new IDPs updated Jan 08 705,000 9

Estimated number of old IDPs 275,000 4 Estimated total population in crisis 1,830,000 24