fsau presentation

FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings

FSAU/FAOFSAU/FAO

Gu 2003 Food Security Analysis Gu 2003 Food Security Analysis & &

Projection through to Gu 2004Projection through to Gu 2004


Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives

GOALGOAL

To provide a preliminary analysis of To provide a preliminary analysis of the food security situation in Somalia the food security situation in Somalia following the following the GuGu 2003 season, with 2003 season, with an outlook through to an outlook through to GuGu 2004 2004


Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

To provide crop production figures and analysis To provide crop production figures and analysis across Somalia for across Somalia for GuGu 2003. 2003.

To provide a national overview of pastoral To provide a national overview of pastoral conditions following the conditions following the GuGu 2003 season. 2003 season.

To provide an analysis of other factors To provide an analysis of other factors influencing food security in areas of concern in influencing food security in areas of concern in Somalia following the Somalia following the GuGu 2003 season 2003 season

To present an outlook for food security in To present an outlook for food security in Somalia through to the Somalia through to the GuGu season 2004 season 2004


Meeting OutlineMeeting Outline

Time Topic

1000-1030 Introduction

1030-1120 Sectoral reports

1120-1205 Integrated analysis by area

1205-1300 Summary, Next steps, questions


FSAU FSAU Analytical Analytical processprocess

(1) (1)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

JunJul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


FSAU Analytical Process (II)FSAU Analytical Process (II)Early

Warning Information

Baseline livelihood analysis provides the context against which

indicators are monitored – it indicates

what is “normal”

Monitoring information (rainfall data, remote

sensing imagery, crop and livestock

production, market prices) flags situations

when access to resources become

critical

FSAU’s risk analysis explains how different shocks or risks affect different households:

how each is affected, why, when and for how long

Baseline vulnerability

analysis

Risk/Outcome Analysis

SeasonalFood SecurityAssessments


Gu 2003 Rainfall Gu 2003 Rainfall performanceperformance


Satellite imagery is important for early Satellite imagery is important for early warning analysiswarning analysis

It is the only data that is received with It is the only data that is received with sufficient regularity(every ten days) sufficient regularity(every ten days) and covers the entire countryand covers the entire country

data are proxies to the condition they data are proxies to the condition they measure and measure and Should beShould be interpreted interpreted with caution with caution

Triangulation with field data necessaryTriangulation with field data necessary

Uses & Limitations of Uses & Limitations of

Satellite ImagerySatellite Imagery


Shabelle & Juba Maize Growing areas


Hiran, Middle & Lower Shabelle


Bay, Bakool, Parts of Gedo & Middle Juba


Hargeisa, Gebiley and Borama


Climate Outlook Forum:

Deyr Forecast


Gu 2003 Crop Gu 2003 Crop performanceperformance


Gu 2003 Cereal Production Gu 2003 Cereal Production (S.Somalia) and Somaliland(S.Somalia) and Somaliland

Compared to Gu Post-War Compared to Gu Post-War Average (PWA) (1995- 2002)and Average (PWA) (1995- 2002)and

20022002


20022002 20032003 PWAPWA

(95-02)(95-02) % of % of 20022002

% o% of f PWAPWA

BakoolBakool 1,1551,155 279279 2,8972,897 2424%% 1010%%

BayBay 56,26056,260 24,55024,550 42,36942,369 4444%% 5858%%

GedoGedo 2,6632,663 1,6651,665 4,2454,245 6363%% 3939%%

HiranHiran 210210 390390 3,0583,058 1414%% 1313%%

L/JubaL/Juba 8686 118118 152152 663%3% 7878%%

L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 8,7008,700 5,2805,280 7,4857,485 6161%% 7171%%

M/JubaM/Juba 2,4082,408 2,9332,933 3,1173,117 7878%% 9494%%

M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 8,4298,429 2,5862,586 4,9634,963 3131%% 5252%%

sub-totalsub-total 79,91179,911 37,80137,801 68,28568,285 4747%% 5555%%

SomalilandSomaliland 9,8029,802 11,64311,643 12,01512,015 8181%% 9797%%

G.TotalG.Total 89,71389,713 49,44449,444 80,30180,301 555%5% 6262%%

Sorghum production 1995-2002 and Average 1995-2002 (MT)


20022002 20032003PWAPWA

(95-02)(95-02) % of 2002% of 2002 % of PWA% of PWA

BakoolBakool 4545 5656 269269 7474%% 2121%%

BayBay 6,9206,920 4,5004,500 2,7542,754 6565%% 3737%%

GedoGedo 1,3831,383 3,0003,000 3,6903,690 17%17% 8181%%

HiranHiran 460460 500500 2,2502,250 9911%% 2222%%

L/JubaL/Juba 6,6606,660 6,4826,482 7,6247,624 9797%% 8585%%

L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 92,02092,020 88,03888,038 61,88661,886 9696%% 5858%%

M/JubaM/Juba 9,1809,180 2,4302,430 9,1219,121 2626%% 227%7%

M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 12,35012,350 13,50013,500 11,99211,992 9911%% 8787%%

sub-totalsub-total 129,018129,018 118,506118,506 99,58699,586 9292%% 881%1%

SomalilandSomaliland 1,0801,080 1,4401,440 3,4053,405 6767%% 4242%%

G.TotalG.Total 130,098130,098 119,946119,946 102,991102,991 9292%% 8484%%

Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002) Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002) (MT)(MT)


20022002 20032003 PWAPWA

(95-02)(95-02) % of % of

20022002 % of % of

PWAPWA

BakoolBakool 1,2001,200 335335 3,1663,166 2828%% 1111%%

BayBay 63,18063,180 29,05029,050 45,12345,123 4646%% 6464%%

GedoGedo 4,0464,046 4,6654,665 7,9357,935 885%5% 5959%%

HiranHiran 670670 890890 5,3085,308 6767%% 1717%%

L/JubaL/Juba 6,7466,746 6,6006,600 7,7767,776 9898%% 8585%%

L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 100,720100,720 93,31893,318 69,37169,371 9393%% 665%5%

M/JubaM/Juba 11,58811,588 5,3635,363 12,23812,238 4646%% 4444%%

M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 20,77920,779 16,08616,086 16,95516,955 7373%% 995%5%

sub-totalsub-total 208,929208,929 156,307156,307 167,871167,871 775%5% 9393%%

SomalilandSomaliland 10,88210,882 13,08313,083 15,42015,420 880%0% 885%5%

G.TotalG.Total 219,811219,811 169,390169,390 183,292183,292 7777%% 9292%%

Cereal production 1995-2003 and Average (1995-2002)


Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-2002)2002)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

MT

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Avg(95-01)

Years

SorghumMaize


Main Factors Contributing to Losses Main Factors Contributing to Losses

after Establishmentafter Establishment Poor RainsPoor Rains Bird damage for SorghumBird damage for Sorghum Insect and Diseases (Sorghum and Insect and Diseases (Sorghum and

Maize)Maize) Low river level (impossible gravity Low river level (impossible gravity

irrigation )irrigation ) Floods Floods Conflict and insecurityConflict and insecurity


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Bakoo

lBay

Gedo

Hiran

L/Ju

ba

L/Sha

belle

M/Ju

ba

M/S

habe

lle

Somali

land

Avera

ge

Sorghum

Maize

Regional Contribution Compared to Average


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Pwa(95-02)

Sorghum

Maize

Cereal Production 1995-2003 Compared to Average

(1995-2002)


Gu 2003Gu 2003Livestock ConditionsLivestock Conditions


0 K m 6 7 3 K m

PASTORAL AREAS OF CONCERN

Map Legend

Region2

District2

SITUATION 1 - EMERGENCY

SITUATION 2 - ALEERT

SITUATION 3 - CLOSE MONITORING

Documents

Most affectedAffectedClose monitoring


Most AffectedMost Affected– Sool PlatSool Plateaeau of Sool and Sanaag regionsu of Sool and Sanaag regions

Dhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, and Dhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, and some some parts of Cerigavo districtparts of Cerigavo district– Lower Nugal Valley Lower Nugal Valley

(Taleh district and parts of Garowe)(Taleh district and parts of Garowe)

PASTORAL CONDITIONS PASTORAL CONDITIONS NormalNormal

– Most of Southern SomaliaMost of Southern Somalia– Some Northern AreasSome Northern Areas

AffectedAffected– Sool Plateau, Bari regionSool Plateau, Bari region (Gardo, (Gardo,

B/Beyla districts)B/Beyla districts)– Upper Upper Nugal Nugal (Dangorayo)(Dangorayo)– Hawd of Sool (Saraar of Ainabo Hawd of Sool (Saraar of Ainabo

district)district)– Addun Addun in Central Regionin Central Region

Close MonitoringClose Monitoring– Central Region : Central Region : Abudwak, Abudwak,

Elbur and Hobyo districtsElbur and Hobyo districts (poor (poor rain and conflict)rain and conflict)

– Nugal Region : Nugal Region : BurtinleBurtinle (in- (in-migration from Hawd of migration from Hawd of Ethiopia and Addun)Ethiopia and Addun)

– Bari Region: Upper Bari Region: Upper Dharoor Dharoor ddistricts of Iskushuban istricts of Iskushuban andand BossasoBossaso (in migration from (in migration from Sool of Sanaag and Nugal Sool of Sanaag and Nugal Region)Region)


Pastoral ConstraintsPastoral Constraints

Poor rains Poor rains InsecurityInsecurityNon-existent or poor rangeland managementNon-existent or poor rangeland managementIncreased human settlement around berkads & Increased human settlement around berkads & increasing desertification of surrounding areasincreasing desertification of surrounding areasIncrease in private enclosures - reducing access Increase in private enclosures - reducing access to grazing and limiting normal to grazing and limiting normal migrationmigrationIIncreased likelihood ofncreased likelihood of migration migration from rural to from rural to urban areas as a result of pastoralist vulnerability.urban areas as a result of pastoralist vulnerability.


OVERVIEW OF OVERVIEW OF NUTRITION NUTRITION SITUATIONSITUATION


Information sourcesInformation sources

Surveys (standard two-stage cluster Surveys (standard two-stage cluster sampling)sampling)

MUAC assessmentsMUAC assessments Trend data analysis from Health Trend data analysis from Health

centrescentres Qualitative assessments Qualitative assessments


Broad observationsBroad observations

S/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% even in S/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% even in “food secure seasons”“food secure seasons”

South & Central: 10 – 15% even in South & Central: 10 – 15% even in food secure seasons”food secure seasons”

Variations in these rates in all areasVariations in these rates in all areas


Areas of nutrition concern: NW&NE Areas of nutrition concern: NW&NE Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)

Sool plateau: Sool plateau: GAM >12% in May,03, why not dramaticallyGAM >12% in May,03, why not dramatically

– Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)– Social network supportSocial network support

Worsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% in Worsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% in April to >18% in AugustApril to >18% in August

Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex: Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex: GAM>20GAM>20

Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles)Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles) Coping mechanisms being exhaustedCoping mechanisms being exhausted Social support weakeningSocial support weakening


Areas of nutrition concern: Areas of nutrition concern: South & Central ZoneSouth & Central Zone

High in esp.High in esp. Beletweyn Beletweyn, GAM 17%, July03) , GAM 17%, July03) GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti & GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti &

Jalalaqsi)Jalalaqsi)– Contaminated water, Contaminated water, – poor sanitation, poor sanitation, – Food inaccessibility among poor HHsFood inaccessibility among poor HHs


JUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts of JUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts of Haggar (mainly riverine villagesHaggar (mainly riverine villages

High GAM >20%, oedema: High GAM >20%, oedema: – Low food diversity esp. acute shortage of Low food diversity esp. acute shortage of

protein among riverine populations & protein among riverine populations & – High disease incidencesHigh disease incidences– Limited social network supportLimited social network support

Insecurity inhibits assessment missionsInsecurity inhibits assessment missions Rising GAM levels in Badhadhe town Rising GAM levels in Badhadhe town

attributed to decline in intake of milkattributed to decline in intake of milk


BAKOL & BAY: BAKOL & BAY:

Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) & Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) & MUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, RabdurreMUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, Rabdurre– Nutrition related interventions thus rates from Nutrition related interventions thus rates from

>20% >20% – Chronic high GAM due to successive deprived Chronic high GAM due to successive deprived

food intake-low productivityfood intake-low productivity Limited accessibility in Bay esp. in Baidoa Limited accessibility in Bay esp. in Baidoa

though HF trend analysis shows though HF trend analysis shows chronically high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. chronically high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. Dinsor, Burakhaba & BaidoaDinsor, Burakhaba & Baidoa


N. GEDO: ConcernN. GEDO: Concern

High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B. High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B. Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)

Declined from high of >30% in 2001 to Declined from high of >30% in 2001 to current levels.current levels.– Interventions and initially improving food Interventions and initially improving food

securitysecurity High levels caused by low nutrient intake High levels caused by low nutrient intake

due to successive droughts and insecuritydue to successive droughts and insecurity Reports of declining food intake - Reports of declining food intake -

Malnutrition may increaseMalnutrition may increase


IDPs, Returnees & Urban poorIDPs, Returnees & Urban poor

In Bossasso, Hargeisa, Mogadishu In Bossasso, Hargeisa, Mogadishu Kismayu & Burao Kismayu & Burao – Rates chronically high 12 – 19%Rates chronically high 12 – 19%– Unsanitary environmentUnsanitary environment– Poor childcare practices (eg. Use of Poor childcare practices (eg. Use of

bottle feeds)bottle feeds)– DiseasesDiseases– Low food intake related low accessibilityLow food intake related low accessibility


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SAKOW

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XUDUN

WAJID

DOLOW

CADALE

BALCAD

Galcad

DINSOR

QARDHO

TALEEX

SHEIKH

ZEYLAC

Cadaado

AFGOOYE

AFMADOW

JAMAAME

GOLWEYN

JARIBAN

CAYNABO

GEBILEY

CALUULA

XAAFUUN

BARGAAL

KANDALA

BERBERA

LUGHAYE

BERDALE

TAYEGLOW

BADHADHE

QORYOLEY

SOBLAALE

BURTINLE

GOLDOGOB

CEEL WAQ

CEEL BUUR

JALALAQSI

WANLEWEYNBURHAKABA

LAS QORAY

BUUHOODLE

WARSHEIKH

CABUDWAAQ

BALANBALE

CEEL DHEER

ADAN YABAL

BULO-BURTO

Ceel Barde

Dan Gorayo

ISKUSHUBAN

BELET XAWO

Rab DhuureGal Hareeri

XARARDHEERE

BAAR-DHEERE

CEEL AFWEYN

KURTUNWAAREY

BANDER BEYLA

MAHADAY WEYNEQANSAX DHEERE

BANDAR WANAAG

BALLI GUBADLE(Balleh Khadar)

XUDUR

MERKA

BURCO

JOWHAR

BOROMA

BUAALE

KISMAYO

GAROOWE

BOSSASO

BAYDHABA

GALKACYO

HARGEYSA

GARBAHAREY

CEERIGAABO

BELET-WEYNE

LAS CAANOOD

DHUSA-MAREEB

MOGADISHU

06/02

05/02

09/02

06/00

03/02

07/03

12/02

08/01

12/00

05/03

09/01

11/01

01/01

07/00

10/02

06/03

10/01

02/00

04/01

12/02

06/01

10/01

07/03

08/99

12/99

02/00

04/00

06/00

09/99

08/99

08/03

Global (Total) Acute Malnutrition

0% - 4.9%5% - 9.9%10% - 14.9%15% - 19.9%> 20%

RiverMajor road

# District town#Y Regional capital%[ Capital

Regional boundaryDistrict boundary

Property of FSAU-FAO.P.O. Box 1230 Vilage Market (Nairobi),Tel 3745734/8297/1299 or 3750262/3,Fax: 3740598E-mail: [email protected].

Nutrition componet of FSAU is funded by USAID

Project partners are UNICEF, WHO, SRCS/ICRC, SRCS/IFRC, WVI,GHC,IMC, MSF-S, COSV, AAH, Muslim Aid-UK, INTERSOS, CISP, MOHL, IRC, MOSA, ACF-F, AAH, COOPI, Zam Zam Foun,Waberi Comm., H/W

Nutrition information throughout Somalia


Market PricesMarket Prices

Trends since 1998Trends since 1998

(US$)(US$)


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60Ja

n-98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Pri

ce in

US

Do

llar

for

1 kg

Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)

Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)

Juba Valley (Maize)

Shabelle Valley (Maize)

Selected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg CerealSelected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg Cereal


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Gra

in (

kg)

Pu

rch

ased

wit

h 1

Day

's L

abo

ur

0

5

10

15

20

25Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)

Juba Valley (Maize)


Sorghum Belt (Sorghum - RIGHT HAND AXIS)

Selected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with One Selected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with One Day’s Unskilled LabourDay’s Unskilled Labour


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Gra

in (

kg

) P

urc

ha

se

d w

ith

1 G

oa

t

Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)

Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)

Juba Valley (Maize)


Terms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality GoatTerms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality Goat


Important Factors to ConsiderImportant Factors to Consider

Good terms of trade: Does not Good terms of trade: Does not necessarily translate into purchasing necessarily translate into purchasing powerpower

Price data collected in market towns, Price data collected in market towns, not rural areas where agric labour is not rural areas where agric labour is sought by the rural poorsought by the rural poor


Food Security Projections:Food Security Projections:Important factors to considerImportant factors to consider

Deyr RainfallDeyr Rainfall Insecurity & political factorsInsecurity & political factors Djibouti expulsion of migrant workersDjibouti expulsion of migrant workers Meat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi ArabiaMeat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi Arabia Remittances and economic investment from Remittances and economic investment from

abroadabroad Exchange ratesExchange rates Border closuresBorder closures Others …?Others …?


FSAU AnalysisFSAU Analysis

Example from Juba ValleyExample from Juba Valley Southern Agro-pastoral food Southern Agro-pastoral food

economy zoneeconomy zone Deyr 50% scenarioDeyr 50% scenario


Background: Analysis processBackground: Analysis process Compile district crop production dataCompile district crop production data Disaggregate by FEZDisaggregate by FEZ Categorize into groups according to Gu Categorize into groups according to Gu

crop performancecrop performance Analyse household economy for “poor”, in Analyse household economy for “poor”, in

areas of concern, considering:areas of concern, considering:– Change in productive activities – including Change in productive activities – including

coping strategiescoping strategies– Change in prices of key commodities Change in prices of key commodities

bought/soldbought/sold– Other factors affecting food securityOther factors affecting food security

Determine deficit (if any)Determine deficit (if any)


Example: Gedo Agropastoral Example: Gedo Agropastoral (Scenario 50% (Scenario 50% DeyrDeyr))

Baselinenon-staple purchase

staple purchase

Gifts

Milk and Meat

Sorghum and

C/pea

Initial Deficit

deficit

Sorghum and

C/pea

Gifts

non-staple purchase

staple purchase

Milk and Meat

Food SourcesFood Sources

Response

deficit

non-staple purchase

staple purchase

Gifts

Milk and Meat

Sorghum and

C/pea


Income sourcesIncome sources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Baseline Initial Deficit Response

% b

ase

line

inco

me

Sorghum Milk sales Bush products

Water sales livestock sales ag labour


ExpenditureExpenditure

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Baseline Initial Deficit Response

% b

ase

line

exp

en

ditu

re

min.non-staple staple flexibilty


Juba ValleyJuba Valley

GedoGedoMiddle JubaMiddle JubaLower JubaLower Juba

JUBA VALLEY

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINE


Cereal ProductionCereal Production* PWA = Post War Average

Region

Main Cereal Production

Major factors affecting production

Gu 2003 prodn (MT)

Gu 2002 prodn (MT)

Gu 2003 Gu 2003

as % of 2002

as % of PWA*

GEDO 4665 4046 115 % 58 %

1.Delayed & poor Gu rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Higher evapotranspiration (extreme wind blows)4. Severe bird attack

MIDDLE JUBBA

5363 11588

46 % 44 %

1. Delayed, below normal rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Severe rodent attacks4. Insecurity (Buale)

LOWER JUBBA

6600 6746 98 % 85 %

1. Delayed, below normal rainfall2. Prolonged dry spell3. Insect infestation4. No hagar rains


General Livestock ConditionsGeneral Livestock ConditionsCompared Compared

w/ Last Yearw/ Last YearCompared w/ Compared w/ “Normal” Year“Normal” Year

Remarks (list notable Remarks (list notable exceptions)exceptions)

PasturePasture NormalNormal NormalNormal

WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal

DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal Disease reported Disease reported in Badhadhein Badhadhe

MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal

OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal


Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Overall Major Influencing FactorsOverall Major Influencing Factors

Positive FactorsPositive Factors

Good livestock Good livestock productionproduction Normal production in Normal production in irrigated areasirrigated areas Fair Livestock marketsFair Livestock markets Normal cross-border Normal cross-border tradetrade Security improvedSecurity improved

Negative FactorsNegative Factors

Delayed, poor and Delayed, poor and localized localized GuGu rainfall rainfall Prolonged dry spellProlonged dry spell Severe bird/rodent Severe bird/rodent attackattack Increased fuel PricesIncreased fuel Prices localized insecuritylocalized insecurity Higher non-staple Higher non-staple pricesprices


Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected DeficitsProjected Deficits

in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern (“poor” households) (“poor” households)

FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts deficit deficit (scenario:(scenario:

deyr deyr 100%)100%)

deficit deficit scenario:scenario:

(deyr (deyr 50%)50%)

Southern Southern AgropastoralAgropastoral

Luq and Luq and DolowDolow

00 30 %30 %

Southern Juba Southern Juba Riverine Riverine dheshekdheshek

Sakow and Sakow and BualeBuale

00 15 %15 %

Lower Juba APLower Juba AP HagarHagar 00 10 %10 %


SHABELLE & COWPEA BELT

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINEURBAN



RegionRegion

Cereal ProductionCereal Production

Major factors Major factors affecting affecting

productionproduction

Gu 2003 Gu 2003 productioproductio

n (MT)n (MT)

Gu 2002 Gu 2002 production production

(MT)(MT)

Gu Gu 20032003 Gu 2003Gu 2003

as % as % of of

2002 2002 as % of as % of PWA* PWA*

Lower Lower ShabelleShabelle 93,598 93,598 100,720100,720 93%93% 135%135%

Long Dry spellLong Dry spellPest infestationPest infestationPremature Premature harvestharvest

Middle Middle ShabelleShabelle 15,90015,900 20,77920,779 77%77% 123%123%

Long Dry spellLong Dry spellPest infestationPest infestationPremature Premature harvestharvest

Cowpea Cowpea BeltBelt 476476 4646



w/ Last Yearw/ Last YearCompared w/ Compared w/ “Normal” Year“Normal” Year

Remarks (list notable Remarks (list notable exceptions)exceptions)

PasturePasture PoorPoor PoorPoor Abnormal out-migrationAbnormal out-migrationOvergrazing at host areaOvergrazing at host area

WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal Water catchments dried up Water catchments dried up earlier earlier

DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal No exceptional eventsNo exceptional events

MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal NormalNormal

OverallOverall Below normalBelow normal Below NormalBelow Normal Decreased body weight and Decreased body weight and productionproduction



Positive FactorsPositive FactorsFavorable ToTFavorable ToTAccess to loanAccess to loanLinkage to RiverineLinkage to RiverineHigh milk priceHigh milk price

Negative FactorsNegative FactorsErratic rainfallErratic rainfallHH stocks depletedHH stocks depletedReduced milk Prod.Reduced milk Prod.Lack of seedsLack of seedsHigh staple priceHigh staple priceLess job Less job opportunityopportunity


Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected % of Food Deficit Projected % of Food Deficit

in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern

FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit

(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)DeficitDeficit

(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)

AP-AP-Rainfed Rainfed (sorghum(sorghum/ cattle) / cattle)

Balad, Jowhar Balad, Jowhar and and W/Weyne/AfgoyeW/Weyne/Afgoye

ZeroZero 25%25%


Northern and Central Pastoral Northern and Central Pastoral Areas of ConcernAreas of Concern

NORTH WEST REGION

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTS

FISHINGURBAN

NORTH EAST ZONE

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSFISHING


Vulnerable areas of NW Vulnerable areas of NW Somalia (Somaliland)Somalia (Somaliland)

Sool plateau (Sanag and Sool plateau (Sanag and Sool Regions)Sool Regions)


Sool PlateauSool Plateau

Successive rain failure for the last 3-4 yearsSuccessive rain failure for the last 3-4 years Progressive asset depletion and income lossProgressive asset depletion and income loss Water prices have increased four times since the Water prices have increased four times since the

beginning of the prolonged drought; highly beginning of the prolonged drought; highly unusual trucking water in unusual trucking water in hagaa hagaa seasonseason

Distress coping strategies have led to severe Distress coping strategies have led to severe environmental degradationenvironmental degradation

High malnutrition rate among children (up to High malnutrition rate among children (up to 17%) 17%)


Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003Sool Plateau and lower NugalSool Plateau and lower Nugal

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Dayr98

Gu 99 Dayr99

Gu 00 Dayr00

Gu 01 Dayr01

Gu 02 Dary02

Gu 03

season/year

% c

alv

ing


Current Seasonal Livestock Reproduction Current Seasonal Livestock Reproduction compared to Normalcompared to Normal

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Camel 2%

sheep Goat

Baseline

current


Camel death rate (cumulative) Camel death rate (cumulative) in the last four yearsin the last four years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 2001 2002 2003years

%


Traditional camel herd dynamics vs Traditional camel herd dynamics vs current situationcurrent situation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Suckling calves <4 yrs olds >5 yrs females >5 yrs males

Baseline

Current


Food security situation outlook Food security situation outlook Given a normal Given a normal deyrdeyr::

– All “poor” and “lower middle” will continue to be All “poor” and “lower middle” will continue to be food insecurefood insecure

– Slow recovery – even if Slow recovery – even if deyr deyr is good - as is good - as restocking rates are well below normal, and restocking rates are well below normal, and almost zero for camelalmost zero for camel

– Current herd size (35-40 shoats) has serious Current herd size (35-40 shoats) has serious food security implications for “poor”food security implications for “poor”

– Increased likelihood to exit from pastoral system Increased likelihood to exit from pastoral system + huge exodus to towns+ huge exodus to towns


Vulnerable areas of NE Somalia Vulnerable areas of NE Somalia (Puntland) (Puntland)

and Central Regionsand Central Regions

Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak, Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak, Hobio, El Bur)Hobio, El Bur)

Sool Plateau of Bari regionSool Plateau of Bari regionLower Nugal (small part)Lower Nugal (small part)


Sorghum Sorghum BeltBelt

SORGHUM BELT

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMSPASTORALISTSAGRO-PASTORALISTSRIVERINE



Region

Main Cereal Production

Major factors affecting

production

Gu 2003 production

(MT)

Gu 2002 production

(MT)

Gu 2003 Gu 2003

as % of 2002

as % of PWA*

Hiraan 890 670 +33% -83%

• Poor & erratic rainfall, heavy infestation of pests, poor cultural practices, high fuel prices (irrigation), river level fluctuation (flooding)

Bay 29050 63180 - 54% - 36%

• Poor & erratic rainfall, heavy infestation of pests, poor cultural practices, insecurity & high transport costs.

Bakool 335 1200 -72% -90%• As above except insecurity



w/ Last w/ Last YearYear

Compared Compared “Normal” “Normal”

YearYear

Remarks (list notable exceptions)Remarks (list notable exceptions)

PasturePasture NormalNormal normalnormal Agro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattle Agro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattle migration to Ethiopia.migration to Ethiopia. less fodder in some crop failure areas less fodder in some crop failure areas (agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)(agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)

WaterWater NormalNormal normalnormal Water scarcity in parts of Water scarcity in parts of Qansaxdhere/Dinsor & HuddurQansaxdhere/Dinsor & Huddur

DiseaseDisease NormalNormal normalnormal Exceptional unidentified diseases reported Exceptional unidentified diseases reported in Raxole of Dinsor districtin Raxole of Dinsor district

MarketMarket NormalNormal normalnormal High demand for cattle improved High demand for cattle improved purchasing power of pastoral and agro-purchasing power of pastoral and agro-pastoral FEGs (Hiran).pastoral FEGs (Hiran). High cattle/shoat meat demand in Dinsor & High cattle/shoat meat demand in Dinsor & Qansaxdhere from GarissaQansaxdhere from Garissa

OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal Terms of trade (livestock/cereal & Terms of trade (livestock/cereal & milk/cereal) favourable for livestock owners milk/cereal) favourable for livestock owners



Positive FactorsPositive Factors Good prices of livestock and Good prices of livestock and livestock productslivestock products Significant old cereal stocks Significant old cereal stocks from last Deyr season from last Deyr season improving current cereal improving current cereal availability.availability. Relative stability in Hiran & Relative stability in Hiran & Bakool Bakool

Negative FactorsNegative Factors Insecurity in Baidoa areaInsecurity in Baidoa areaDrought/flood (ETHIOPIA) in Drought/flood (ETHIOPIA) in HiranHiranPredicted high cereal prices Predicted high cereal prices (positive/negative)(positive/negative)Extreme seed scarcity Extreme seed scarcity (bakool & Hiran)(bakool & Hiran)


Integrated Food Security Outlook: Integrated Food Security Outlook: Projected % of Food deficits for “poor” Projected % of Food deficits for “poor”

in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit

(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)DeficitDeficit

(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)

Agro-Agro-pastoral pastoral

Beledweyne,Beledweyne, Buloburto & Buloburto &

JalalaqsiJalalaqsi0%0% 30%30%

RiverineRiverine Buloburto, Buloburto, Beledwein & Beledwein &

JalalaqsiJalalaqsi0%0% 50-60 %50-60 %

Agro-Agro-pastoralpastoral

Hudur, Elberde & Hudur, Elberde & Tieglow, Rabdure, Tieglow, Rabdure,

WajidWajid25%25% 39%39%

Bay-Bakool Bay-Bakool Agro-Agro-pastoralpastoral

Rabdure, Tieglow, Rabdure, Tieglow, Bardhere, Dinsor & Bardhere, Dinsor &

QansaxdhereQansaxdhere0%0% 56% 56%


Map Legend

Districts

fez-district

No Deficit

Deficit 0 to 10%

Deficit 10% to 20%

Deficit 20% to 30%

Deficit greater than 30%

Documents

0 K m 6 5 6 K m

Deficits - Deyr Rains 100% of Average

Disclaimer: This map is an approximation and may contain omissions.


Map Legend

Districts

fez-district

No Deficit

Deficit 0% to 10%

Deficit 10% to 20%

Deficit 20% to 30%

Deficit greater than 30%

Documents

0 K m 6 5 6 K m

Deficits - Deyr Rains 50% of Average

Disclaimer: This map is an approximation and may contain omissions.

fsau presentation

Documents

preliminary analysis

integrated analysis

critical fsaus risk

gugu season

food security analysisgu

with2003 season

season2003 season

somalia foracross somalia