Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Juba Regions

Post GU 2011

17th August 2011

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Information for Better Livelihoods

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

- Food security field analysts had a full access into all livelihoods of

both regions

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists) Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while

southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases

Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.

South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38,810 people - 68%), but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18,232 people – 32%).

Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population; 43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales, wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own production and market purchase

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists)

Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products

Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle

(SEP), sheep/goat

• Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3rd Dekad of April, ended early in 2nd Dekad of May with intermittent dry period in both regions.

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity, ended early in 2nd of May 2011.

• Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but poor frequency and distribution.

• Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall.

• Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3rd dekade of July 2011

ClimatePerformance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation:• Remains highly volatile • Military skirmishes along the Kenya

/Somalia border

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

• Restricted trade movement across the borders from Somalia (Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa.

• Limited population movement• Restricted pastoral mobility,

particularly in Diif, Tabata, Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in Afmadow district

Civil Insecurity

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions

Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates

Districts

Gu 2011 Production in MT

Total CerealGu 2011 as

% of Gu 2010

Gu 2011 as % of Gu

PWA(1995-2010)

Gu 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2006-2010)

Maize Sorghum

Afmadow 20 1 21 5% 6% 10%

Hagar 8 3 11 2% 3% 5%

Badhaadhe 0 0 0 0% 0% 0%

Jamaame 245 0 245 11% 7% 14%

Kismaayo 45 0 45 3% 6% 9%Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011 Total

318 4 321 6% 6% 11%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates

DistrictsGu 2011 Production in MT

Total CerealGu 2011 as %

of Gu 2010

Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA(1995-2010)

Gu 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2006-2010)

Maize Sorghum

Bu'aale 180 12 192 8% 10% 13%

Jilib 175 0 175 5% 4% 6%

Saakow 200 0 200 3% 6% 5%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2011 Total

555 12 567 5% 6% 7%

Agriculture Gu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions

Districts Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010

Middle Juba 400 6%

L. Juba 50 3%

Total 450 5%

AgricultureGu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M

Juba)

Regions

Gu 2011, Cash Crop Production in MT

Rice Cowpea Sesame OnionsOff-Season

CowpeaOff-Season

SesamePepper Total

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

 0 140 0  0 70 200  0 400

Juba Hoose (Lower)

 0 20 5  0 250 1,800  0 2,080

TOTAL 0 160 5 0 320 2,000 0 2,480

M.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production

Agriculture

L.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production

Agriculture

M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011

Agriculture

AgricultureL. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011

Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow , Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011

Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M.Juba, FSNAU, July 2011

AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos

AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos

.

Failed crop Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011

Crop failure. Yontoy, Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011

Empty underground storage Pit.Qed cajuso –Sakow July 2011

Juba regions receive maize from Kenya via Dhobley and Kismayo port as well as from

Ethiopia (Somali Region) through Gedo region.

AgricultureGu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices

(maize), main markets in Middle Juba

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main

markets in Lower Juba

Factors influencing sorghum prices:

• Crop failure in riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods

• Maize inflow from Kenya and Ethiopia

• High demand for cereals

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability

Factors influencing labor wage rates in agricultural districts:

•Limited agricultural activities following the poor Gu season performance

•Low labour demand

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

Regional trends in purchasing

power in Middle Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize):

3kg in Jul ‘11 vs 15kg in Jul ‘10

Factor Affecting ToT decline:

• Significant increase in maize prices.

•Decrease of daily wage rate

Regional trends in purchasing

power in Lower Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize):

4kg in Jul ‘11 vs 17kg in Jul ‘10

LivestockRangeland Conditions and

Livestock Migration, July 2011

• Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions except riverine livelihood

• Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of coastal, pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods except river banks

• Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep.

• High in-migrations that caused depletion of pasture

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11)

Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11)

Milk production (Gu ‘11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11

Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)

Livestock species

Juba Southeast Pastoral Cattle: none to lowSh/goat: medium

Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: low

very low

Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium

Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: decreased (Below Baseline)

Southern Inland Pastoral

Camel: lowSh/goat: medium

Camel: mediumSh/goat: low

average for camel

Camel: lowSh/goat: medium

Camel: Increasing trend ( as Baseline)

Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)

Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: none to lowSh/goat: medium

Cattle: low Sh/goat: low

very low

Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium

Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)

LivestockGu 2011 Assessment Photos

Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Lower Juba, July 2011

Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow, Middle Juba, July 2011.

LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions

Regional Trend in cattle Prices

in Middle Juba (Jilib , Buale) : • Cattle prices are 40% of June 2010

and 161% of January 2011.

Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in

Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo): • Declining trend: 49% compared to

same month last year, and 103% of January 2011

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

Influencing factors: poor body condition, poor demand, high supply, poor condition on marketing route, prolonged drought )

Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade

Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions

Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize:

107kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 715kg/head in Jul ‘10

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize:

105kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 358kg/head in Jul ‘10

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months):

• Increased taxation on commercial imports

• High food and fuel prices on international markets

• Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices

Markets

Region Nutrition Surveys (March – July 10)

Rapid MUAC Screening

(% <12.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key

driving factors

Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’09/10

Juba

Juba PastoralGAM =39.0 (35.2-42.9) SAM = 18.9 (16.0-22.3% (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)

Juba RiverineGAM = 45.3 (41.0-49.7)and SAM = 21.7 (18.7-25.0) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)

Juba Agro-pastoralGAM = 34.4 (30.3-38.6) and SAM = 12.3 (9.5-15.8) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)

MUAC <12.5=19

MUAC <11.5=5

High and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood s but decreasing in the riverine livelihoods’ facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)

OTP admission show mixed trends, with high and fluctuating number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in pastoral and agro-pastoral, but low and fluctuating trends in the riverine facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)

Aggravating factors-High morbidity with pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine samples reportedly ill.-Limited access to health and feeding facility due to distance and insecurity-Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water -Suboptimal child care/feeding

Mitigating factors- No mitigating factors has been noted

Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

JubaRiverine: Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

Juba Agro-pastoral Very Critical – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

JUBA Nutrition Situation Estimates

Aggravating factors Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities Poor infant and young child feeding

Mitigating factors Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel) Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative

impact on the environment Limited nutrition interventions on going

Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

JUBASummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes

Urban Population: Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLCLower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC

Rural Population:L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M –

AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC); Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral (100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC)

Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorateFood Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below

2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day while lacking entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping

Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)

Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse)

Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing)

Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)

MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

JubaMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation

Aggravating Factors: Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity; Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral

(sorghum): L. Juba (321MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567MT; 6% of PWA); Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies; Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high

livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region; Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat); Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep &

goats); Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% ); Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley ,Kulbiyow and Diif of

Afmadow district – affecting trade movement Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market

(shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity) Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases; Weak purchasing power: ToT of 4kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25kg maize/local goat (72%

decline) compared to June 2010; Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness);

Mitigating Factors: Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas; Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize); Charcoal production despite low prices; Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC Social support

JubaRural Population in Crisis by District

Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Famine

Middle Juba Bu'aale 45,901 8,000 9,000 7,000 26,000 5,000

Jilib 83,464 12,000 13,000 11,000 37,000 7,000

Saakow/Salagle 54,773 10,000 8,000 9,000 26,000 5,000

SUB-TOTAL 184,138 30,000 30,000 27,000 89,000 17,000

Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 7,000 3,000 14,000 14,000 2,000

Badhaadhe 32,828 7,000 2,000 12,000 11,000 1,000

Jamaame 106,734 12,000 17,000 7,000 45,000 10,000

Kismaayo 77,334 9,000 6,000 20,000 22,000 4,000

SUB-TOTAL 261,108 35,000 28,000 53,000 92,000 17,000

GRAND TOTAL 445,246 65,000 58,000 80,000 181,000 34,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123,000 295,000

JubaRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

Affected Regions and Livelihood ZoneEstimated Population

of Affected Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HEDeyr 2010/11 GU 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Famine

Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 0

Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 3,000 6,000 0 12,000 3,000

Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 2,000 1,000 2,000 4,000 1,000

South-East Pastoral 18,232 4,000 1,000 10,000 5,000 0

Southern Agro-Past 46,816 12,000 4,000 13,000 26,000 4,000

Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 2,000 0 0

Southern Juba Riv 59,304 9,000 18,000 0 42,000 9,000

SUB-TOTAL 184,138 30,000 30,000 27,000 89,000 17,000

Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 0

Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 14,000 7,000 19,000 34,000 7,000

South-East Pastoral 38,810 9,000 3,000 21,000 12,000 0

Southern Agro-Past 11,637 3,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 1,000

Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 10,000 0 0

Southern Juba Riv 57,005 9,000 17,000 0 40,000 9,000

SUB-TOTAL 261,108 35,000 28,000 53,000 92,000 17,000

GRAND TOTAL 445,246 65,000 58,000 80,000 181,00034,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123,000 295,000

JubaUrban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of

Urban population

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of

Urban population

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Bu'aale 59,489 13,588 0 7,000 52 0 7,000 52

Jilib 113,415 29,951 0 15,000 50 0 15,000 50Saakow/Salagle 65,973 11,200 0 4,000 36 0 4,000 36

Sub-Total 238,877 54,739 0 26,000 47 0 26,000 47Juba Hoose (Lower) Afmadow/Xagar 51,334 7,122 2,000 0 28 1,000 2,000 42

Badhaadhe 38,640 5,812 2,000 0 34 1,000 2,000 52

Jamaame 129,149 22,415 8,000 0 36 2,000 6,000 36Kismaayo 166,667 89,333 16,000 0 18 8,000 23,000 35

Sub-Total 385,790 124,682 28,000 0 22 12,000 33,000 36Grand Total

624,667 179,421 28,000 26,000 30 12,000 59,000 40

The End