Forecasting Residential Aged Care Demand in Australia:

A Geographic Information Systems Analysis

AuthorsHamish Robertson and Nick Nicholas

Contents

• Introduction

• Current and projected ageing

• Dementia prevalence

• Health and social support infrastructure

• Results

• Discussion

• Conclusion

• Online access

Tobler’s First Law

"Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things.”

Tobler W., (1970) "A computer movie simulating urban

growth in the Detroit region” Economic Geography, 46(2): 234-240.

Ageing and Service Development

Current and Projected Ageing

• 2006 and 2011 Censuses

• ABS projections 2007-2027 – further updates to come

• Population distribution and change

• Sea change and tree change effects

• Epidemiological shifts and changes

• Growth in knowledge about prevalence and incidence

Dementia Estimated PrevalenceSource: AIHW 2012

Health and Social Service Infrastructure

• Residential aged care facilities – Australia-wide geocoded and mapped (June 2011 listing)

• Hospitals – Australia-wide• ACAT teams - NSW• Alzheimer's Australia offices by state - doing• Meals on Wheels for NSW - geocoded• Others to do – GPs, pharmacies (more than 2,000

in NSW) and other HACC-type services• Emergency services – SES, police, ambulances• Could include disability and other age and chronic

disease service providers – extensible database

Hospitals

RACFs 2011

Meals on Wheels NSW

Ambulance Stations NSW

RACFs in Sydney Metro

Services Within a 5 km or Less Radius

Aged 65+ Less Than 5 km of RACFs

Demand and Supply 2011

Projected Growth in Dementia 2011-2027

Projected Demand Pattern in 2027

Outcomes

• Population ageing and projections mapped for whole of Australia

• Epidemiological estimates (current and future) mapped for Australia

• Key infrastructure mapped – some for whole of Australia, some for NSW at this stage

• Linked population change, projected epidemiology and infrastructure in a meaningful way

• Trialling approaches to (a) analysis and (b) visualisation of results

• Posting results and resources gradually

Discussion

• Current and future scenarios can be modelled quickly using spatial methods

• Scale and time can be dealt with in the same system• Outputs can be visualised as pictures (maps) or as

virtual 3D environments (Google Earth)• The current silo effects in health and social care can be

eliminated using this technology• Industry-specific scenarios can also be developed or an

“overall” picture• Scenarios can be re-run using potential site locations

and likely impacts estimated i.e. ‘what-if’ scenario modelling

Conclusion

• GIS and related technologies are a valuable and useful tool for managing current and future scenario modelling

• Changes in policy, funding and infrastructure can be rapidly added to the model

• Online access improves the accessibility of base information and analysis

• Spatial techniques support public engagement in aged care policy and provision e.g. quality postings

• Spatial literacy will become essential in health and social care as this field is developing rapidly

Developmental work and resources available at:

www.neura.edu.au/projects/GlobalAD