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Foresight and Policy Development: the EU experience

Fabiana SCAPOLOTeam leader Foresight and Horizon Scanning

Science advice to Policy Unit (A01)

Joint Research Centre (JRC)Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation

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• Possible ways to support policy to prepare for the future challenges

• Impact assessment• Strategic planning

• Technology assessment

• Technology Forecasting• Modelling• SWOT analysis• Technology roadmapping• Critical (or Key)

Technology Studies• Futures studies

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• (Technology) Forecasting

• Aims at predicting developments on the basis of the extrapolation of perceptible trends. Alternative futures maybe processed in order to define the most likely future.

• Forecasting as extrapolation of historical data is limited by the availability and quality of the data and by the constraints in the use of forecasting models.

• Less suitable for addressing issues with little or no historical data.

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• Strategic planning

• Is a systematic process through which an organisation agrees on -and builds commitment among key stakeholders to - priorities that are essential to its mission and are responsive to the environment. Strategic planning guides the acquisition and allocation of resources to achieve these priorities (Allison and Kaye, 2005).

• works effectively in many contexts, especially when the focus is on shorter-term topics

• does not per se involve stakeholders or diverging opinions

Typical methods: SWOT analysis, scenarios, technology roadmapsis by definition a normative approach

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Comparison of approaches

Alternative futures? Stakeholders engagement? Supporting action?

Impact assessment

The likely future impacts of a policy initiativeLimited exploration of alternatives to the initiative

Exclusive expert analysis and stakeholder consultation only to complement the analysis

Justifies/calls for amendments in a projected inititiaveNo focus on mobilizing for the implementation

Technology assessment

Future impacts of a specific technologyNo exploration of alternatives

Inclusive stakeholder participation Enhance understanding and identify recommendationsOften precautionary

Forecasting The likely future developmentDisruptive and radical changes may be missed

Exclusive expert work Provides ‘objective’ informationNo action recommendations

Strategic planning

The path to the desired future Lack of alternative perspectives

Mainly exclusive expert work low commitment of stakeholders

Action plan to obtain the objectives

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Forecasting, Planning, and Foresight

• Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity.

• Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, whereas Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions we choose to take today.

• As for Planning, Foresight time horizons should be beyond the usual planning period. Time horizons will vary depending upon the issue or sector under consideration and the needs of the target audience. Time horizons typically vary between 5-30 years, but they may be even longer in some instances

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FORESIGHT – What is it?

• Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building processaimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions

• Does not predict the future;

• Complements desk research analyses with a structured dialogue on the future

among key stakeholders;

• Enhances future thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of

knowledge sources in a systematic way and links it to today’s decision making;

• Structures the analyses to ensure the emergence of collective intelligence derived

beyond established pathways.

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Participatory, inclusive

Joint systemic understanding of the current situation and how it can evolve in the future

Alternative futures, medium to long term

Systematic and creative process to enable participants to jointly see what is possible, probable and preferred

Action-oriented, shaping the future today

Vision building process aiming at present day decisions and to mobilise joint actions

Analysing the futureForesight characteristics

"Thinking the Future", "Debating the Future" and "Shaping the Future".

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• Engaging stakeholders

• What is ‘participatory’?

Future-oriented activities can be considered participatory if:

• they involve participants from at least two different stakeholder groups (e.g. researchers and business people; experts and policy-makers; experts and laymen);

• they disseminate their preliminary results (e.g. analyses, tentative conclusions and policy proposals) among interested 'non-participants', e.g. face-to-face at workshops, over the internet with free access for everyone, or in the form of printed documents, leaflets, newsletters;

• they seek feedback from this wider circle (again, either face-to-face or in written form).

• Conversely, activities that do not meet any of these criteria cannot be regarded as participatory.

• [Based on a definition by Attila Havas]

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• Engaging stakeholders• The demand for a participatory approach:

• acknowledges that different people have different views on the same topic, and on what they perceive as the important topics

• reflects the desire for greater democratisation and legitimacy in political processes

• builds on the increasing awareness that no single body (especially not a government agency!) can know everything that needs to be known in order to effect the desired changes. Knowledge is distributed widely, and decision-makers have to live with this, and develop their intelligence-gathering methods accordingly.

• [Based on a definition by Attila Havas, on Amara, 1981 and Miles et al, 2002]

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What does foresight look at?

Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription

Understanding where we are…

Exploringwhat could happen…

Debating what we would like to happen …

Deciding what should be done …

Structured stakeholder dialogue

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Basic types of dialogue in a foresight exercise

Each type of dialogue calls for:specific objectives (guiding questions)specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of participation)specific methods structuring the debate

Need to tailor approach to objectives and intended impacts in each phase

DiagnosisUnderstanding where we are…

PrognosisForesighting

what could happen…

PrescriptionDebating what we would

like to happen

Deciding what should be done …

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Evaluation

Agenda-setting Policy definition

Learning

Implementation

• Traditional policy cycle

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Foresight feeding into policy design and implementation

Evaluation

Agenda-setting

FORESIGHT

Policy definition

Learning

Implementation

Understanding of changes

Responsiveness of the systemNew ideas

Legitimacy, transparency

Visions Policy options

New policy configurations

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• Foresight building blocks

Where are we now?

How do we get there? Where do we want to go?

How things may develop?

How can we prepare?

policy makerscompany managers

citizens researchers

NGOs unionsassociations consumers

panels surveysscenarios roadmaps

stakeholdersstakeholders

analysing, debating &

shaping the future

analysing, debating &

shaping the future

in a structured wayin a structured way

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When is foresight applied for policy support?

Typical examples

Challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities, etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding

Decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development

Decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation

Need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society

Need for enhancement of innovation capability

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Foresight rationales and benefits

Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future

Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future

InsightsAbout the future

InsightsAbout the future

RelationsWith respect to future

RelationsWith respect to future

AttitudesTowards the future

AttitudesTowards the future

produces changes

• Networks• Linkages• Common ground• Shared perspectives• Joint visions

• Networks• Linkages• Common ground• Shared perspectives• Joint visions

• Long term thinking• Awareness of challenges• Foresight & learning culture

• Long term thinking• Awareness of challenges• Foresight & learning culture

• Dynamics of change• New perspectives• Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views

• Dynamics of change• New perspectives• Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views

Being better prepared for the futureBeing better prepared for the future

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Foresight functions for policy making

1. Informing policy – generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design

2. Facilitating policy implementation – enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders

3. Embedding participation in policy making – facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy

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Foresight functions for policy making

4. Supporting policy definition – jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy design and implementation

5. Reconfiguring the policy system – new configurations of or linkages between policy making bodies in a way that the system becomes apt to address long-term challenges

6. Symbolic function – indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information

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Outcomes of Foresight exercise

• Outputs refer to the products and services, tangibles and intangibles.

• Results in turn refer to advantage (or disadvantage) that the beneficiaries obtain soon after the end of their participation; and

• Impacts refer to consequences affecting beneficiaries during and after the project.

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History of Foresight within the Commission

• Foresight is not new in the European Commission

• Some of the actors are (and have been)

• Forward Studies Unit (now BEPA) • End 1980s beginning 1990s

• JRC-IPTS (Institute for Prospective technological Studies)• From mid 1990s – ongoing

• Technology watch; Foresight studies; contribution to the advancement of the Foresight knowledge-base (e.g. Foresight mapping, pilot Foresight Academy, foresight as a tool for policy development at different levels European, National, Regional, International)

• DG Research and Innovation • “Strengthening the foundations of the European Research Area” financed projects

through FPs aiming at advancing the knowledge based of Foresight

• Strategic research agendas in ETP, JPI, EIP

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CONTEXT OF JRC ACTIVITIES ON FORESIGHT

• In reply to Europe 2020 strategy and as foreseen by the JRC 2010-2020 Strategy the JRC is developing a capacity to develop forward-looking studies (horizon-scanning and Foresight) to be more at the forefront of the policy cycle.

• This capacity is placed in Brussels in the Science Advice to Policy Unit.

• Mission: To deepen the integration of JRC scientific advice intopolicy making in the EU.

Identifying and communicating areas where new scientific developments and socio-economic trends could require new JRC activities by undertaking foresight and horizon scanning analyses.

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JRC ACTIVITIES

Two types of activities:

regular identification of potentially significant research results and technological advances

the horizon scan bulletin

long term in-depth analysis of issues deemed important for society in a longer time horizon

foresight studies

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Why are we doing this?

Develop strategic intelligence allowing the JRC to position itself in anticipation of S&T developments that will affect European policy initiatives and policy options

To exploit further the JRC scientific potential. JRC scientists have the privileged position of working in science with an eye on policy implications.

The Scanning the Horizon bulletin is the tool to deliver this early knowledge.

Contributors are scanners/analysts of what’s going on and their position is unique in pro-actively providing science advice to policy (or filling the gap between science and policy).

HORIZON SCANNING

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HORIZON SCANNING ACTIVITIES

Provide early identification of societal, scientific and technical issues which might require attention by Union Institutions for possible policy intervention

Develop strategic intelligence allowing the JRC to position itself in anticipation of S&T developments that will affect European policy initiatives and policy options

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WHY ARE WE DOING THIS? [1/2]

In addition to standard cooperation between Institutes and customer DGs, there is an enormous scientific potential within the JRC that is unexploited.

JRC scientists have the privileged position of working in science with an eye on policy implications.

This ‘6th sense’ has to be used to alert policy DGs on items that may require new thinking and action.

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WHY ARE WE DOING THIS? [2/2]

The Scanning the Horizon bulletin is the tool to deliver this early knowledge.

Contributors are scanners/analysts of what’s going on and their position is unique in pro-actively providing science advice to policy (or filling the gap between science and policy).

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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE JRC

Exploit tacit knowledge within the organisation including in areas of research where skills of scientists are unexploited

Learning mechanism for scientists to better articulate the policy dimension of rapidly evolving scientific and/or technological landscape

Provide a tool to anticipate future needs for scientific supportto the Commission

Horizon scanning can feed the selection of items to be further investigated (e.g. through Foresight)

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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE THE JRC

Better integration of scientific advice and knowledge into policymaking in the Commission

Promotional tool demonstrating JRC capacities to look ahead and engage with policy issues

Enlarge portfolio of customers

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ON-GOING FORESIGHT STUDIES [1/2]

• Foresight study for DG ENTR on the future of standards

The study seeks to explore the industrial landscape and production systems in

2025 as a basis to identify how and where an earlier development of standards

can facilitate innovation and competitiveness.

• Foresight study on "Tomorrow's healthy society - research priorities for foods and diets" for DG RTDI

The study will develop scenarios on future research and innovation priorities that

support the provision and consumption of foods and diets for health and well-

being based. It will support the implementation of the Horizon 2020 Framework

Programme for Research and Innovation from 2014 onwards.

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ON-GOING FORESIGHT STUDIES [2/2]

• Foresight study on the future of eco-industries

The study will look at the science gaps and future key technologies in the sector

of water and waste management, air quality, energy efficiency and renewables

that can provide innovation, new services and products.

• Foresight on Food security

The study will identify priority areas in food security where Europe can act by

developing targeted policies.

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• Thank you!

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CHALLENGES

Engagement of scientific staff across all JRC sites (develop a truly corporate product)Translate technical items in policy dimension Get comments and feedback from users (methodology)Animate and operate a web-based platform to motivate contributionsOpening up to new audiences

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Foresight policy functions

Actors

Policy

Actors

InsightsInsights

Actors

Better decisions

Foresight DialogueForesight Dialogue

Better decision making

Better implementation due to betterresponsiveness of actors

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BENEFITS OF FORESIGHT

Product benefits – Better understanding

• Distributed anticipatory intelligence on …• dynamics of change• upcoming challenges and

opportunities• strategic options

Process benefits – Better systems

• Enhanced system learning capability• common ground among key actors• shared learning platforms• new linkages of diverse elements• future oriented attitudes

Enhancedcapabilityto unlock

the potential

of the present

Enhancedcapabilityto unlock

the potential

of the present

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State of Development of Innovation System

Under Developed

Well Developed

Re-energising/

reorientating capability

Creating CapabilityMaintaining momentum

Breaking Consensus

• forming networks & institutions• human capitalH, IRL, P, NL-FSC, E, (NZ)

• S.W.O.T.• involve SMEs• consensus on priorities•UK#1, NL-MOEA, A, S

•critical technologies•new demands•new visionsNL-NRLO, SF, DK UK#2, F, D, J, US