Introduction to scenarios

thinking and planning

By Katindi S. Njonjo

What are Scenarios

scenarios are stories about the future

scenarios take into cognisance past events and forces to determine how these have shaped the present.

This information is combined with thorough research/knowledge and acute intuitive insight to depict things that are ‘inescapable’, most important and uncertain, describing how these might evolve in the future.

Multiple

Paths

Current realities

(Mental maps)Many

futures,

different

truths

and

realities

Source: Adopted from Rafael Ramirez

Pa

st e

ven

ts &

forc

es s

ha

pin

g

the

pre

sen

t

Time

Bring the future back into the present

(back-casting) to strategize

Lea

rnin

g j

ou

rney

wit

h h

igh

lev

el

an

aly

sis

Overall Scenarios framework

The present

Alternative Future Images

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Why do we do Scenarios

The world is very complex, fast changing, unpredictable and full of uncertainty

Most of us look to political leaders, civil society, religious leaders etc to provide comfort and certainty

Because many have not grasped the complexities of our time they continue to use their former skills, expertise and old knowledge to solve new, more complex problems

No one admits that they have no adequate answers. Each new failure on their part to deliver on their promises increases mistrust, lowers legitimacy and increases indifference

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The Iceberg Analogy

Events

Patters of

behavior

Structure of the

system, causal

relationships, driving

forces, assumptions

Increasing

the ability

to

influence

and learn

Adopted from Senge (1990)

Why scenarios

Human beings keep looking for certainty

So we keep looking for a 3

However, the world is not liner and static.

It is fast changing, unpredictable and full of uncertainty

America will always be ruled by a white president!

What if blacks

outnumber us and

one day America is

ruled by a black!

What if the next

president is a

woman!

America will

always be ruled

by a white

American

What if?!

*&%$@*?

Scenarios as the art of re-perceiving

Vickers triangle... When do we do scenarios

Strategizing

scenarios

Instrumenta

l judgment

(=‘actions”)

Value

judgment

(=‘Values”)

Reality

judgment

(= ‘Facts’)

Ability to

do

something

about it

Norm creating

scenarios

Value

judgment

(=

‘values’)

Reality

judgment

(= ‘Facts’)

Instrument

al judgment

(=‘actions”)

Evaluating

the reality

Sense-making

scenarios

Reality

judgment

(= ‘Facts’)

Value

judgment

(=‘Values”)

Instrumental

judgment

(=‘actions”)

Assessing

the facts

Sense-making / uncertainty Projects

• These are

scenarios that

help look for

ways to survive

in a world that

one does not

control

• They describe a

range of

uncertainties

• Good for

exploring

organizational

survival

Surfacing assumptio

ns

Deepening

causal links

Re-framing

and sensitizin

g

‘seeing’ and

anticipating

Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe

Nature

of e

co

no

my

Umbrella

state

New

state

Homestead

economy

Modernized

economy

Flying

Geese

of state

KATIBA

AVENUE

EL NINO

ROAD

MAENDELE

O

STREET

Inequality

Passive

participation

Active

participation

Equality

. .

..

Go

ver

na

nce

population

Tsunami scenario

Pond scenario

Water fall scenario

Ocean Scenario

Norm Creating Projects

Involving stakeholders & challenging group thinking

Increasing future orientation and team building

Language creation, establishing common ground and culture change

Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe

VISION

Is a settlement

negotiated?

Ignorance

is blissNO Non –representative government,

non-negotiated resolution not

sustainable.

Is the transition rapid

& decisive? NO

Transition slow

and indecisive

NOAre the government

policies sustainable?

Flight of the

Flamingo

Ostrich

Lame

duck

Inclusive

democracy

& growth?

Transition rapid but government pursues

unsustainable, populist agenda

Government’s policies are

sustainable; the country takes a path

of inclusive democracy and growth

The Mont Fleur

Scenarios

Source: Luis Jimenez – senior VP & chief strategy officer, Pitney Bowe, 2005

Strategizing Projects

• Discovering options

• Inventing options

• Re-defining possible/impossible distinctions

• Building confidence to act

• Mapping options

• Testing options

• Engaging others

Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der

Merwe

Present

The

‘Official’

Future

What scenarios are not: Forecasts!

Source: Adopted from Schwartz (1991)

Forecasting

Scenarios contests the planning cycle

Top managementcomes up with 3-5year plans

They communicatethe vision toinvestors,journalists,partners etc

Budgets are drawnup , negotiated andrenegotiated

Analyze Fo

rmu

late

Implement

Mo

nit

or

1 year

Scenarios help you think about the future in other ways beyond budgeting and projections

or forecasting

By the

time this

happens

This is

outdated

Success in the future depends not on the study of the future but on the future

success of decisions taken today…

Angela Wilkinson, Oxford University

Thank You