forum idc portowwo.techdata.pt/aa/info_apresentacoes_forum/images/camiloloure… · current account...
TRANSCRIPT
Forum IDC Porto
European fears…
ECB to the rescue…
Germany and its backyard…
Big Three bond yields
Bond yields
Pre-Troika… Post-Troika
Marriage and… tragedy?
Who’s paying…?
Public spending (as % of GDP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Juros Despesa total excl. juros Receita total Receita f iscal Défice
% do PIB
Fonte: AMECO.
Fat…? Where?
Current account (as % do GDP)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Bal. Bens Bal. Serv. Bal. Rend.Bal. Tranf. Corr. Bal. Corr. Fonte: AMECO
% do PIB
Productivity matters
Labour costs…
The near future... III (3 to 5 years)
The near future... II (3 to 5 years)
Portuguese banks and the ECB (bn euros)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8Ag
o-08
Set-0
8O
ut-0
8No
v-08
Dez-
08Ja
n-09
Fev-
09M
ar-0
9Ab
r-09
Mai
-09
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Ago-
09Se
t-09
Out
-09
Nov-
09De
z-09
Jan-
10Fe
v-10
Mar
-10
Abr-1
0M
ai-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0Ag
o-10
Set-1
0
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Financiamento líquido total concedido pelo BCE (ELE) em % do Eurosistema
milhões de euros
Fonte: Bancos
Loan-to-deposit ratio (EU)
Too heavy…?
Bancos à míngua
Grécia 30 bn
Espanha 26,2 bn
França 8,8
Itália 14,8
Portugal 7,8 bn
Alemanha 5,2 bn
BENELUX 4,1
Chipre 3,6 bn
Áustria 2,9 bn
Sinking bank stocks
Euro area: 17 countries…?
Case-study
-Nokia market cap (-75% in 3 years)
‘ outside the “box” II (music business)
Euro area: 17 countries…?
Public servants-the future…
Facts, nothing but facts…