four decades of socioeconomic studies in a rice village in east laguna
TRANSCRIPT
8/2/2019 Four decades of socioeconomic studies in a rice village in East Laguna
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Kei Kajisa
IRRI Rice Seminar Series
Current position
• Senior Scientist (Agricultural Economics)
Education and training•Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
•Ph. D. in Agricultural Economics, 1999
•Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan
•Master of Arts in International Economics, 1993
Work experience •International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, the Philippines
•Senior Scientist (Agricultural Economics) 2009 – Present•Scientist (Agricultural Economics) 2006-2009
•Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development (FASID), Tokyo, Japan
•Faculty Fellow, GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate Program (2000-2009)
•National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo, Japan
•Associate Professor, GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate Program (2000 – 2009)
• The World Bank, Washington D.C., USA
•Consultant, Development Economics Group (1998-2000)
Research highlights
•Green revolution in Asia and its transferability to Africa:
•The evolution of agricultural systems in Tamil Nadu, India.
•Potential and Constrains of rice Green Revolution in Mozambique and Tanzania
•The role of community mechanisms in natural resource management
•Collective management of tank irrigation in Tamil Nadu, India
•Adoption of water saving technology under different institutional settings in China and the
Philippines
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Four Decades of
SocioeconomicSurvey in a Rice
Village in East Laguna
Kei Kajisa
IRRI SSD
IRRI Thursday Seminar
March 29, 2012 East Laguna village in the early 70s.
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The study
village
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Four decades mean…
2008 After Rice Price Crises
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Terminology
Land holding status
Land owner
Landless
Farming status
Landlord
(Absentee landlord)
Landlord-farm-operator
Tenant Farmer/Farm operator
Ag. Labor/hired labor (no
management task)
Farmer/Farm-operator
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Interactions of 5 Modernization Forces
• Resource endowment
– Population pressure (advanced med and pub. Health)
• Agriculture
– Green Revolution (scientific ag.)
– Land reform (social reform against the past colonialism)
• Public investments
– Development of irrigation, roads, and schools
• Globalization
– Non-farm activities (easier link to foreign markets)
Farming and Livelihoods of rural people
Intensive, continuous monitoring of one village as one
social observatory
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13-round IRRI-SSD surveys
19741966
Umeharasurvey
1st IRRI SSD survey
IR8 1980
• Green Revolution
• Land reform
•High ways
(Lost Decade)
•FDI and factories in Laguna area
• Population
pressure
1950s
1958
1962
1958•NIA Irrigation
system
•Land
frontier
s closed
•Barrio school1965Country road
• Masagana 99
2007
Latest IRRI SSD
survey
2011
•NIA system
Rehabilitation
1999•Opening of sub-
division
2006 TyphoonMilenyo
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Initial Condition of the Village
• Began to be settled in the 1880s.
• Rainfed rice monoculture
• Sharecropping contract (landlords in local
towns nearby) 50:50 share
• No significant class differentiation w/in the
village (all are poor)
First wave of modernization: pop growth
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Growth of population and rice land, East Laguna Village,
1918-1997
Total Population (100 persons)
0
3
6
9
12
15
1918 1940 1960 1966 1974 1976 1980 1983 1987 1995 1997
Year
0
24
48
72
96
120Population/land ratio (Persons/ha) Paddy area (ha)
Total Population
Population/ha
Paddy area(ha)
Source: Hayami and Kikuchi (2001)
Population Pressure on Land
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1966 1976 1987 1995 2007
Total
Non FarmWorker
AgriculturalLaborer
Farmer
Household
70%
30%
50%
50%
34%
62%
21%
62%
17%
59%
32%
9%
Distribution of household by type, East Laguna village, 1966 - 2007
66
109
242
428
158
Population Pressure
Difficulty in landacquisition
Opening of new sub-
division
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
WetDry
Distribution of rice varieties adopted by farmers, average yield per hectare, and
rice price received by farmers, East Laguna Village, 1965-2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
R i c e p r i c e
D e f l a
t e d b y
C P I ( P / k g
)
R i c e y i e l d s p e r h e c t a r e
D i s t r i b u t i o n o f
r i c e v a r i e t i e s
%
o f f a r m e r s a
d o p
t e d
DS 2011Triple-2 50% (introduced by a
wedding guest from NE)
RC-10 10%
RC18 10%
Source: IRRI SSD Database, Hayami and Kikuchi (2001)
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1997 2008
Y ear
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
P r o d u c t i o n o f u n m i l l e d
r i c e ( m i l l i o n M T )
R
e a l p r i c e o f m i l l e d r i c e ( 2 0 0 8 ) U S $ / t o n )
Realprice
WorldProduction
Trends in world production and real price of rice,
1961-2008
Source: Production: USDA, 13May2008
Rice Price: 2008 is May 2008 price. Relate to Thai
rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator
(adjusted based on April 17, 2008 data update)
Source: www.worldbank.org
Poor HHs’ food security has
been better off throughout
80s and 90s
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Labor utilization in rice production per hectare
wet season, East Laguna Village, 1966 - 1995
28
10
13
32
6
582
28
1
19
10
32
38
7
10
8
22
34
1
12
10
15
27
9
9
9
13
26
4
Total Hired Total Hired Total Hired
Others
Harv/
Thresh
Weeding
Crop
Estab.
Land
Prep.
1966 1976 1995
89
44
105
75 73
61
49 71 84Percent hired (%)
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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Impact of Green Revolution
• Q↑ P↓ (locally and globally)
– “Agricultural treadmill”
– Benefit of net sellers is little. Net buyers(marginal farmers, landless, urban people) has
been better off.
• ↑ in demand for hired labor
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Land Reform Programs
(1970s~ )• “Operation Leasehold”
– Sharecropping leasehold tenancy w/ land
rent fixed at lower-than-market rate (50% 25%)
• “Operation Land Transfer”
– Land ownership to tenants (amortizationpayment equivalent to 25% of harvest)
“Land to the tillers”
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owned
1%
leasehold
29%
Sub-Rented
7%
Share
63%
owned
2%
leasehold
63%
Sub-Rented
8%
Share
27%
Pawning
Ownership
1%owned
29%
leasehold49%
Sub-Rented
6%
Share15%
owned25%
leasehold
62%
Sub-Rented
7%
Share
6%
1966 1976 1996 2006
1970 1980Operation OperationLeasehold Land Transfer
Distribution of rice land by tenure status, East Laguna
Village, 1966-1995
Land Reform and Land Tenure Status
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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Remarks on the Land Reform
• Resulted in an inactive land rental market – “What if my tenant went to the land reform office and
my land was transferred to the tenant?”
– Disguised tenancy. Unwillingness to outsource
completely.
• Little chance of landless ag. Labor to be a
tenant. – Disappearance of “agricultural ladder”.
• Ag labor tenant owner cultivator
– Oversupply of ag labor and low wage rate
– Nullify labor demand increase
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1966 1976 1987 1995 2007
Total
Non FarmWorker
AgriculturalLaborer
Farmer
Household
70%
30%
50%
50%
34%
62%
21%
62%
17%
59%
32%
9%
Distribution of household by type, East Laguna village, 1966 - 2007
66
109
242
428
158
Population Pressure
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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Shares of income from rice production per hectare, wet season,
East Laguna Village, 1966-1995
1966 1982 1995
1740
2920
3250
23%33
%44%
26%35%
Hired laborer
Farm operator
Land owner
Gross income(kg of paddy)
13%
53%50%
24%
Source: IRRI SSD Database
The benefit to the hired
labor increased but notas much as that of farm
operators.
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Transformation of a rice village
Trad.
Rice
Village
GR
Irrigation
MVs
Farm
Income ↑
Time
Land
reform
Immediate impact of GR
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3.3
6.8
8.1
10.7 10.7
3.5
5.1
7
9.5
7.3
3.2
4.2
5.6 5.9 6.3
9.68.8 9.1
Average number of school years per adult male
(21-64 years old), East Laguna Village, 1966-2006
Largefarmer
Largefarmer
Largefarmer
Largefarmer
Smallfarmer
Smallfarmer
Smallfarmer
Smallfarmer
Agric.laborer
Agric.laborer
Agric.laborer
Agric.laborer
Non-farmworker
Non-farmworker
Largefarmer
Smallfarmer
Agric.laborer
Non-farmworker
1966 1976 1987 1997 2006
Impact on schooling Investments
Source: IRRI SSD Database
The increase can be attributed to the
increase among young generations.
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Job opening ads at a municipal hallFujitsu’s job opening ad
Small garment factory (Laguna) Bakery in the East Laguna Village
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0
. 5
1
0
. 5
1
0
. 5
1
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20
1 3 16
30 41 42
43
Schooling yearsGraphs by typoccup22
Farming Ag/Casual labor Overseas work
Self employment Unskilled work at small
ent
Unskilled work at large
ent
Technical/skilled work Completion years
Primary= 6Secondary= 10
Tertiary= 14
Distribution of schooling years by occupationKajisa (2007)
Schooling and Non-farm Jobs
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Overseas work
Self-employmen
t
Unskilledlabor Smallenterprises
Unskilledlabor Largeenterprises
Technical/Skilled work
Impact of Network Change Family/Relative network change Prob. at average network size 0.03 0.37 0.10 0.19 0.07Prob. after increasing one person 0.03 0.41 0.16 0.17 0.08Change 0 0.04 0.06 -0.02 0.01
Friend network change
Prob. at average network size 0.01 0.35 0.13 0.18 0.08Prob. after increasing one person 0.01 0.37 0.15 0.17 0.09Change 0 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
Acquaintance network change Prob. at average network size 0.04 0.34 0.12 0.17 0.07Prob. after increasing one person 0.03 0.37 0.12 0.20 0.08Change 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01
Impact of schooling year change Schooling years’ increase from primary to secondary level
Prob. at the completion of primary school 0.02 0.50 0.08 0.11 0.00Prob. at the completion of secondary
school0.04 0.33 0.16 0.22 0.01
Change 0.02 -0.17 0.08 0.11 0.01Schooling years’ increase from secondary to tertiary level Prob. at the completion of secondary
school0.04 0.33 0.16 0.22 0.01
Prob. at the completion of tertiary school 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.22 0.43
Change -0.01 -0.25 -0.03 0.00 0.42
Impacts of changes in personal networks and
schooling years by occupation (Simulation results)
Kajisa (2007)
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Percentage composition of average household income,
East Laguna Village, 1974-95.
14 8 15 22 27 15
18 28 16 8 24 6
51 17 18 4 9 1
13
Non-farm origin 64
38
36
Farm origin 62
87
1974/76
1980/83
1995/96
0% 20% 40% 100%60% 80%
Rice Non-rice Farm wage
Non-farm ent. Non-farm wage Others
Sharp increase in Non-farm income
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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Average per-capita incomes (CPI deflation) by type of
household (1000 pesos), East Laguna Village, 1974/76 to 1995/96
Large
farmer
Small
farmer
Agric.
laborer
Large
farmer
Small
farmer
Agric.
laborer
Non-farm
worker
100 55 23 53 %100 57 35 %
17
9
6
1974/76
33
18
8
17
1995/96
100
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100 Year
1966 54
1974 62
1983 77
1995 89
I n c o m e
0
20
40
60
80
0 20 40 60 80 100 Year
1974 45 68
1983 45 67
1995 51 56
% Gini % Poor
Income distribution
Land distribution
L a n d
% Gini
Changes in land and income distribution, East Laguna Village, 1966-1995
Gini coefficient calculated across individuals’ under the assumption that a household income was distributed equally amongthe members of each household.
Percentage of population having incomes below the poverty line. The poverty line is defined as an annual per-capita incomerequired to satisfy basic nutritional requirements (2000 calories) and other basic needs. The poverty lines in respective yearsare estimated by deflating the 1994 poverty line by CPI estimated by the National Statistical Coordination Board (1996) forthe rural sector of the Philippines.
Note.% Gini:
% Poor:
Source: Hayami Kikuchi (2001)
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Transformation of a rice village
Trad.
Rice
Village
GR
Irrigation
MV
Farm
Income ↑
Schooling
Investments
To children
Non-Farm
income ↑
Time
Equity in
Income
distribution,
maintained
Heterogeneity
in occupations
Land
reform
Aging of farmers
Long-term impact of GR
Factories in
Industrialzones
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Kikuchi (2002)
2011
P 131 /d
Labor wage rate from 1965 to 2011
Labor is abundant for
agriculture at thesame low wage rate!
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Complicated incentives in farm management
• Abundant labor is still available at the same low cost.
– I-1. Outsourcing of farming, rather than mechanization• But many of them are outsiders (new migrants, poorer
people in nearby villages)
– I-2.Management through Kabisilya (foreman) , rather
than direct hiring• Inactive land-rental market because of the land reform
– I-3. Unwilling to outsource faming completely (so that
the owners can still claim they are farming and the
tenants are not the tillers).• Vested interest among old ex-farmers (retaining harvesting
right of particular parcels)
– I-4. Try to retain the right and sub-contract to others.
C l i i l b
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Complexity in labor management
Activity Arrangement (DS 2011)
LP Cont. w/ a tractor owner (per ha. base)
TP Cont . w/ Kabsiliya (per ha. base)
CC (1) Farmers(2) Upapan (ag. Labor, daily wage base)
(3) Procientuhan (10% sharecropping for management)
HV
(1) Hunusan ( % of harvest)
(2) Gama (% of harvest w/ weeding service)(3) Pakyau (outsourcing to Kabsiliya, per ha. base)
(4) Hunusan + sub-contracting to Kabsiliya
TH Cont. w/ a threshing machine owner (9-10% of harvest)
Almost every season every farmer has to
think of what is the optimal labor
arrangement for him/her in that
particular season.
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Transformation of a rice village
Trad.
Rice
Village
GR
Irrigation
MV
Farm
Income ↑
Schooling
Investments
To children
Non-Farm
income ↑
Time
Aging
of farme
rs
Heterogeneity
in occupations
Outsourci
ng of
farming
Complicated
labor
arrangement
Abundant
labor inpoorer
villages
Inflexible
rule/vestedinterest
Land
reform
Factories in
Industrialzones
Equity in
Income
distribution,
maintained
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Percentage of paddy fields cultivated by the villagers by
irrigation condition, East Laguna Village, 1985-2012
Changes in irrigation
System
rehabilitati
on by NIA
in 2011
Cost of irrigation
NIA: 1,500/ha (WS) 2,500/ha (DS)
Pump: 5,000 /ha (WS) 10,000/ha (DS)
Source: IRRI SSD Database
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Transformation of a rice village
Trad.
Rice
Village
GR
Irrigation
MV
Farm
Income ↑
Schooling
Investments
To children
Non-Farm
income ↑
Time
Aging
of farme
rs
Heterogeneity
in occupations
Outsourci
ng of
farming
Collective
irrigation
Mng ↓
Complicated
labor
arrangement
Costly
Private
pump
irrigation
Abundant
labor inpoorer
villages
Inflexible
rule/vestedinterest
Land
reform
Factories in
Industrialzones
Equity in
Income
distribution,
maintained
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Impact of Typhoon Milenyo
An Overview of Milenyo •On September 25, 2006
•Php6.5B (US$130M) damages
to infrastructure andagriculture.
•496,325 homes were totally
or partially destroyed.
•127 deaths, 323 injured, and
45 missing.
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Electricity supply was cut.
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Completely damaged house
A h t t d b th R d
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A house reconstructed by the Red
Cross Aid (photo taken in 2011)
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Fallen mango trees
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Damages to rice fields
O ll D f Mil
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Overall Damages of Milenyo aCrop share for porcientuhan and harvest share for wage workers. bCrop share on rented-out plots.
Kind of damage Farmer Landless Nonagricultural
Number % Number % Number %
None (0) 10 24 63 42 108 51 Lost house (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0House seriously damage (2) 5 12 39 26 62 30 Lost utensils (3) 0 0 0 0 0 0Lost productive assets (4) 1 2 1 1 5 2Lost job (5) 0 0 1 1 5 2
Income declined (6) 9 22 16 11 6 3 Lost members (7) 0 0 0 0 0 0Members got injured or sicked (8) 0 0 0 0 0 0Crop damage (9) 1 2 5 3a 13 6b Others (10) 0 0 0 0 4 2Combination of (2) and (4) 0 0 0 0 1 0Combination of (2) and (5) 1 2 0 0 0 0Combination of (2) and (6) 2 5 11 7 2 1
Combination of (2) and (9) 1 2 0 0 2 1Combination of (4) and (6) 0 0 2 1 0 0Combination of (6) and (9) 7 17 9 6 a 1 0 Combination of (2), (6) and (9) 4 10 1 1a 0 0 Combination of (1), (6) and (9) 0 0 0 0 1 0Combination of (6) and (10) 0 0 1 1 0 0Total 41 100 149 100 210 100
Sawada et al (2009)
Damages to Farm endowments and harvests
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g
•Damages to paddy
Paddy got wet when the fields were submerged in water and wet paddy
commands a lower price in the market.
Total paddy harvest 151,160 kg (the expected harvest was 222,966 kg) 32%
decline by Milenyo
“(Subjective) Decline in paddy price”: Php8.89 per kg to Php7.44 per kg (16%
reduction).
•On the average,
Per HH loss of paddy is Php260 the minimum wage rate of Php250.00 per day.Per HH loss of mango tree is Php680 per household 2.72 times the minimum
wage rate per day.
Farm endowment Numbercompletely lost
Number heavilydamaged
Estimated (subjective )value lost (PHP)
Avocado 4 5 2,100 Banana 441 402 17,755
Jackfruit 17 42 5,400
Mango 239 98 271,950
Rambutan 18 27 26,525
Chicken 19 0 2,250
Pigs 7 0 9,100 Sawada et al (2009)
Households’ Risk Coping Mechanisms
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p g
Coping mechanism Farmerhouseholds
(%)
Landlesshouseholds
(%)
Nonagriculturalhouseholds
(%)1.Reduce food consumption 27 76 47
1.1 Rice 0 15 81.2 Protein 5 27 13
1.3 Food taken outside 22 34 26
2. Switch consumption to own produce 12 34 22
3. Reduce child schooling 2 1 4
4. Reduce medical expenses 0 3 3
5. of valuable items 0 4 66. Emergency borrowing 33 50 30
6.1 Bank 5 3 2
6.2 Relatives 12 13 10
6.3 Friends 3 7 3
6.4 Neighbors 0 6 0
6.5 Moneylender 10 6 5
6.6 Pawnshop 0 0 0
6.7 Sari-sari store 3 15 10
7. Emigration 0 0 0
8. Received remittances 25 16 21
9. Aid from local government and NGO 46 65 58
10. Nonfarm employment 85 60 94 Sawada et al (2009)
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Risk Coping Mechanism
• A decrease in the expenditure on relatively more expensive
sources of protein (such as pork) is the most commonreaction among landless HHs.
• Nonfarm employment played a crucial role as an insurance
mechanism.
• The community networks in securing emergency loans andthe personal networks in receiving remittances were
particularly important for the landless poor.
• The active local government participation in managing the
disaster was considered by the poor as another importantfactor that allowed them to cope with the disaster.
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After 4 decades of transformation…
• The village is not a “pure” rice village anymore.
– Non-farm workers: 59%
– (rice is still important; paddy fields are fully
cultivated; yield is high.)
• Rice farming is becoming more difficult because – it requires skillful labor management
– it requires collective irrigation management among
heterogeneous members. (otherwise, they need to
use expensive pump water.)
• Vulnerability to shocks is still serious problem, even
though villagers can cope it through their social
network to some extent.
d
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• Long term village studies reveal
– Dynamics of transformation
– Long term impact of technologies, in
association with other modernization factors
– Potential and bottlenecks for furtherdevelopment in the future.
• SSD’s activities
– The Central Luzon Loop survey, – Bohol Irrigation System (4-season baseline),
– Bangladesh VDSA,
– Tanzania, Mozambique (baseline),
A k l d
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Acknowledgements
Great Predecessors
Yujiro HayamiMasao Kikuchi
Randy Barker
Mahabub Hossain
Available at IRRI Gift Shop,for those who are
interested in the early
period of the village
Current and ex-SSD
staff Pie Moya
Esther Marciano
Fe Gascon
Lui Bambo
Raph Aranil
Mirla Domingo
Tintin Doctolero
Collaborators
Jonna P. Estudillo
Nobuhiko Fuwa
Yasuyuki Sawada
Yuki Higuchi
Above all, my deepest gratitude goes to the villagers of the
East Laguna Village.