fourth quarter 2015 volume 27, number 4 forecast area new ...€¦ · page 2 greater philadelphia...

YTD '14 YTD '15 % Chg. Mkt. Sharethru Sept. thru Sept.* '14 to '15 YTD '15*

TOTAL 142,337 147,547 3.7%

Car 68,716 65,441 -4.8% 44.4%Light Truck 73,621 82,106 11.5% 55.6%

Domestic 47,017 49,378 5.0% 33.5%European 18,361 18,040 -1.7% 12.2%Japanese 65,369 68,180 4.3% 46.2%Korean 11,590 11,949 3.1% 8.1%

Fourth Quarter 2015 Volume 27, Number 4

131,013 140,893

156,527 165,705

177,753 187,637

194,500 199,500

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast

2016 Forecast

New

ligh

t veh

icle

regi

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tions

Market Summary

Domestic brands consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT), and Tesla. *Figures for September, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Annual Trend in Area Market

The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the area from 2009 thru 2014 and Auto Outlook’s projections for 2015 and 2016.

Historical Data Source: IHS Automotive. Source: IHS Automotive.

Information overload is hard to avoid these days. Here’s our attempt to cut through the clutter. Below is a concise summary of key trends and developments in the Greater Phila-delphia Area new vehicle market.

Area market posts gain during first three quarters of ‘15; increase is just below U.S.Area new retail registrations were up 3.7% for the first nine months of this year (September figures were estimated) versus a year earlier, just below the 4.8% uptick in the National market.

New vehicle market moves higher in Third Quarter of this yearThe Third Quarter increase was 5.9%, higher than the 2.3% improvement in the Second Quarter (see page 2).

Seventh consecutive annual increase pos-sible in 2016Area new retail light vehicle registrations are projected to improve 2.6% from 2015 to 2016. It’s possible that the annual total next year could exceed 200,000 units.

Stimulative impact of pent-up demand is waning, but there are still forces pushing new vehicle sales higherAuto Outlook believes that the primary factor fueling the increase in new vehicle sales is shifting. Following the significant drop in sales after the financial crisis, replacement demand was the key driver. Average vehicle age was at record highs and vehicles were wearing out. After six years of rising sales, however, we think many consumers are now entering the market based on a desire to purchase a new vehicle, rather than a need. Advances in electronic safety features, performance, fuel economy, and infotainment are top considerations. At the same time, rising incomes, very low inter-est rates, and an improving job market are boosting affordability.

Sales have room to go higher; but are likely reaching their peakThe main question about the market these days is how high can sales go? Based on a basic analysis of cyclical trends, it would seem that sales have room to move higher. A typical, average year for U.S. sales is about 16 million

units. In 2009, sales were 10.5 million, 5.5 million below average. In general, there’s no reason why sales could not exceed the aver-age by 5.5 million, which would put the market peak at a robust 21.5 million units. Auto Out-look believes that sales will max out well below that figure. Although general economic condi-tions are improving, the pace of expansion is not likely to support a sales rate in excess of 20 million units. Slower growth for the next few years is the most likely scenario.

Land Rover, Chrysler, GMC, Audi, Lincoln, Jeep, Chevrolet, Nissan, Lexus, Acura, and Infiniti gain a lot of ground in 2015These 11 brands had the largest percentage increases during the first nine months of this year versus a year earlier. Registrations for each brand were up by more than 10%

Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4 are top sellers in area marketCR-V and RAV4 were at the top of the area sales chart so far this year. They were followed by Toyota Camry, Nissan Rogue, and Honda Ac-cord.

FORECAST

Area New Vehicle Market On Track for 3.7% Gain in 2015 Seventh consecutive annual increase predicted for next year

Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook

Q3 '11 Q3 '12 Q3 '13 Q3 '14 Q3 '15*

Regs. 38591 42057 48297 50674 53684

0

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30000

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60000

New

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ht v

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Third Quarter registrations during past five years

0.0%

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3.0%

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7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15* Area 6.2% 2.5% 2.3% 5.9%

U.S. 6.6% 2.5% 2.7% 8.9%

% c

hang

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rsus

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r ear

lier

Area

U.S.

QUARTERLY TREND

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market

Greater PhiladelphiaAuto Outlook

Fourth Quarter 2015

Published by:Auto Outlook, Inc.

PO Box 390Exton, PA 19341

Phone: 800-206-0102EMail: [email protected]

Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz

Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express per-mission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook, pub-lished by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Automobile Dealers Association of Greater Philadelphia, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: IHS Automo-tive.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projec-tions. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook.

MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS

Area Market Increases 5.9% in Third Quarter of 2015

QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE

Five Years of Third Quarter Results in Area Market

* Figures for the Third Quarter of 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for July and August. Source: IHS Automotive.

The area market improved at a slower pace than the U.S. in the 3rd Quarter of 2015.

The market was up by more than 15,000 units in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 vs. 2011.

MARKET TRACKER: AREA MARKET VERSUS U.S.

Area Market Has Smaller Gain

* Figures for 3Q 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for July and August. Source: IHS Automotive.

Area Market U.S. MarketPercent change in registrationsYTD '15 thru Sept.* vs. YTD '14

3.7% 4.8%

Passenger car market shareYTD '15 thru Sept.*

44.4% 44.4%

Domestic brand market shareYTD '15 thru Sept.*

33.5% 41.4%

Top 10 brands and market shareYTD '15 thru Sept.*

First Toyota 12.4% Toyota 13.3%

Second Ford 10.6% Ford 12.6%

Third Honda 10.3% Chevrolet 10.7%

Fourth Nissan 8.5% Honda 9.5%

Fifth Chevrolet 6.6% Nissan 7.6%

Sixth Jeep 6.0% Jeep 5.1%

Seventh Subaru 5.5% Hyundai 4.2%

Eighth Hyundai 4.6% Subaru 3.9%

Ninth Kia 3.5% Kia 3.8%

Tenth Mercedes 2.8% GMC 3.3%

*Sept. 2015 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Automotive

Fourth Quarter 2015

-3.1

-0.7

0.4

3.4

-5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0

Non-Luxury Car

Luxury Car

Luxury Truck

Non-Luxury Truck

Change in market share

Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share(includes hybrid and electric vehicles)

Change in Area Market ShareYTD 2015 thru September* vs. YTD 2014

The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. *Figures for September, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive.

The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the area. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *Third Quarter 2015 in-cludes July and August. Source: IHS Automotive.

MARKET TRACKER: PRIMARY SEGMENTS

Light Truck Share Is Up

MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Area Hybrid/Electric Share is 2.3%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Q4 '12

Q1 '13

Q2 '13

Q3 '13

Q4 '13

Q1 '14

Q2 '14

Q3 14

Q4 14

Q1 15

Q2 15

Q3 15*

Trendline

Car market share has declined so far this year.

Alternative powertrain market share has trended lower over the past three years, and was just 2.1% in the Third Quarter of 2015.

MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS

Compact SUV Segment Leads Area MarketPhiladelphia Area Segment Market Share Review

SegmentMarket Share

YTD ‘14 thru AugustMarket Share

YTD ‘15 thru AugustChange in shareYTD ‘14 to ‘15

Best selling modelin segment

Compact SUV 21.2 23.1 1.9 Honda CR-V

Standard Mid Size Car 16.6 15.5 -1.1 Toyota Camry

Sub Compact Car 15.9 14.8 -1.1 Honda Civic

Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 7.5 8.1 0.6 Ford Explorer

Full Size Pickup 5.3 5.7 0.4 Ford F Series

Near Luxury Car 5.0 4.8 -0.2 Acura TLX/TL

Mid Size Luxury SUV 4.8 4.2 -0.6 Lexus RX

Compact Luxury SUV 2.8 3.8 1.0 Acura RDX

Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 3.8 3.8 0.0 Jeep Grand Cherokee

Luxury and Sports Cars 3.7 3.1 -0.6 Mercedes E-Class

Mini Van 3.0 2.7 -0.3 Honda Odyssey

Entry Car 3.0 2.4 -0.6 Kia Soul

Large Mid Size Car 2.3 1.9 -0.4 Nissan Maxima

Full Size Van 1.1 1.3 0.2 Ford Transit Connect Van

Compact Pickup 0.9 1.2 0.3 Toyota Tacoma

Entry Luxury Car 0.9 1.0 0.1 Audi A3

Sport Compact Car 1.0 1.0 0.0 Ford Mustang

Full Size SUV 0.9 0.9 0.0 Chevrolet Tahoe

Full Size Luxury SUV 0.4 0.4 0.0 Cadillac Escalade

The table above shows Philadelphia area market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first eight months of 2014 and 2015, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2015 share. Most popular segment in the area is Compact SUV, which also had the largest gain. Data Source: IHS Automotive.


The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the five county Southeastern Pennsylvania area market. Figures are shown for the Third Quarters of 2014 and 2015, and ytd totals for 2014 and 2015. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded gray.

Brand Registrations ReportGreater Philadelphia Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

Third Quarter* Year-to-date thru September*Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%)

3Q 2014 3Q 2015 % change 3Q 2014 3Q 2015 Change YTD '14 YTD '15 % change YTD '14 YTD '15 ChangeTOTAL 50,674 53,684 5.9 142,337 147,547 3.7

Cars 24,350 23,287 -4.4 48.1 43.4 -4.7 68,716 65,441 -4.8 48.3 44.4 -3.9Light Trucks 26,324 30,397 15.5 51.9 56.6 4.7 73,621 82,106 11.5 51.7 55.6 3.9

Domestic Brands 16,676 18,182 9.0 32.9 33.9 1.0 47,017 49,378 5.0 33.0 33.5 0.5European Brands 6,227 6,507 4.5 12.3 12.1 -0.2 18,361 18,040 -1.7 12.9 12.2 -0.7Japanese Brands 23,775 24,645 3.7 46.9 45.9 -1.0 65,369 68,180 4.3 45.9 46.2 0.3Korean Brands 3,996 4,350 8.9 7.9 8.1 0.2 11,590 11,949 3.1 8.1 8.1 0.0

Acura 1,020 1,105 8.3 2.0 2.1 0.1 2,999 3,309 10.3 2.1 2.2 0.1Audi 981 1,182 20.5 1.9 2.2 0.3 2,736 3,210 17.3 1.9 2.2 0.3BMW 1,335 1,155 -13.5 2.6 2.2 -0.4 4,090 3,500 -14.4 2.9 2.4 -0.5Buick 641 720 12.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 1,849 1,841 -0.4 1.3 1.2 -0.1Cadillac 644 497 -22.8 1.3 0.9 -0.4 1,766 1,272 -28.0 1.2 0.9 -0.3Chevrolet 3,053 3,650 19.6 6.0 6.8 0.8 8,603 9,751 13.3 6.0 6.6 0.6Chrysler 575 615 7.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 1,653 1,993 20.6 1.2 1.4 0.2Dodge 1,428 1,108 -22.4 2.8 2.1 -0.7 4,032 3,209 -20.4 2.8 2.2 -0.6FIAT 109 103 -5.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 331 238 -28.1 0.2 0.2 0.0Ford 5,259 5,709 8.6 10.4 10.6 0.2 15,291 15,602 2.0 10.7 10.6 -0.1GMC 1,082 1,323 22.3 2.1 2.5 0.4 3,112 3,728 19.8 2.2 2.5 0.3Honda 5,641 5,569 -1.3 11.1 10.4 -0.7 15,113 15,167 0.4 10.6 10.3 -0.3Hyundai 2,304 2,466 7.0 4.5 4.6 0.1 6,574 6,727 2.3 4.6 4.6 0.0Infiniti 508 613 20.7 1.0 1.1 0.1 1,650 1,815 10.0 1.2 1.2 0.0Jaguar 54 42 -22.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 148 145 -2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0Jeep 2,893 3,439 18.9 5.7 6.4 0.7 7,719 8,871 14.9 5.4 6.0 0.6Kia 1,692 1,876 10.9 3.3 3.5 0.2 5,016 5,214 3.9 3.5 3.5 0.0Land Rover 201 292 45.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 701 852 21.5 0.5 0.6 0.1Lexus 1,020 1,183 16.0 2.0 2.2 0.2 2,924 3,246 11.0 2.1 2.2 0.1Lincoln 281 317 12.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 732 844 15.3 0.5 0.6 0.1Mazda 1,460 1,430 -2.1 2.9 2.7 -0.2 4,096 3,952 -3.5 2.9 2.7 -0.2Mercedes 1,394 1,500 7.6 2.8 2.8 0.0 4,261 4,099 -3.8 3.0 2.8 -0.2MINI 210 170 -19.0 0.4 0.3 -0.1 628 564 -10.2 0.4 0.4 0.0Mitsubishi 532 608 14.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 1,626 1,644 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0Nissan 4,077 4,712 15.6 8.0 8.8 0.8 11,275 12,594 11.7 7.9 8.5 0.6Other 95 83 -12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 251 268 6.8 0.2 0.2 0.0Porsche 224 270 20.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 718 734 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.0Ram 780 829 6.3 1.5 1.5 0.0 2,136 2,151 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.0Subaru 2,782 2,857 2.7 5.5 5.3 -0.2 7,497 8,133 8.5 5.3 5.5 0.2Tesla 36 49 36.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 115 178 54.8 0.1 0.1 0.0Toyota 6,724 6,528 -2.9 13.3 12.2 -1.1 18,164 18,263 0.5 12.8 12.4 -0.4Volkswagen 1,245 1,211 -2.7 2.5 2.3 -0.2 3,343 3,281 -1.9 2.3 2.2 -0.1Volvo 394 473 20.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1,188 1,152 -3.0 0.8 0.8 0.0*September 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.Source: IHS Automotive

Fourth Quarter 2015

-1200 -600 0 600 1200

-50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

Dodge

BMW

Cadillac

Mercedes

Mazda

FIAT

MINI

Volkswagen

Volvo

Buick

Ram

Porsche

Mitsubishi

Honda

Toyota

Lincoln

Land Rover

Hyundai

Infiniti

Kia

Acura

Ford

Lexus

Chrysler

Audi

GMC

Subaru

Chevrolet

Jeep

Nissan

Unit change ( thin black bars)

Percent change (thick gray bars)

% change

Unit change

*Figures for Sept., 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Automotive.

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE

Jeep Registrations Increase by Over 1,200 UnitsLand Rover and Chrysler had the biggest percentage gains so far this year

The graph below presents a comprehensive picture of brands that are gaining (or losing) ground in the area market. It shows both the unit AND percent change in registrations dur-ing the first nine months of this year versus the same period a year earlier. Viewing both

measures on the same graph provides a more clear-cut signal on how each brand is doing.

Here are a couple of examples: Land Rover has had a big percentage increase so far this year (up 21.5%; shown by the thick gray bar on the graph), but it’s a relatively low-selling

brand. Land Rover registrations have increased by only 49 units. Nissan’s percentage increase is in the middle of the pack (up 11.7%), but unit registrations were up by a sizeable 1,319. Jeep has posted big gains this year. Registra-tions increased by 1,152 units versus a year earlier, up 14.9%.

The graph shows the unit and percent change in registrations so far this year. Unit change is represented by the thin black bars, while the values are shown on the top axis. The thick gray bars show the percent change, with the values on the bottom axis.

Change in Area New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2015 thru September* vs. YTD 2014)


4.0

4.9

5.9

6.1

6.9

10.0

11.3

14.9

15.2

16.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Porsche

Volvo

Cadillac

Infiniti

Land Rover

BMW

Audi

Lexus

Mercedes

Acura

Share of luxury truck market (%)

2.4

3.1

3.7

4.7

7.6

10.0

11.4

16.0

18.0

18.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Porsche

Lincoln

Cadillac

Volvo

Infiniti

Acura

Lexus

Audi

BMW

Mercedes

Share of luxury car market (%)

2.8

3.1

5.2

5.2

9.2

9.3

11.5

12.8

13.2

15.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Kia

Ram

GMC

Subaru

Nissan

Chevrolet

Honda

Jeep

Toyota

Ford

Share of non luxury truck market (%)

3.9

5.8

5.9

7.1

7.5

9.3

9.5

10.7

14.5

17.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Mazda

Kia

Volkswagen

Chevrolet

Subaru

Hyundai

Ford

Nissan

Honda

Toyota

Share of non luxury car market (%)

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO

Toyota is Non-Luxury Car Brand Leader; Ford #1 for Trucks Mercedes is best selling luxury car brand; Acura leads for luxury trucks

Top 10 Non Luxury Car Brands in Area MarketApril 2015 thru September 2015

The four graphs below show market share leaders in the Philadelphia Area during the past six months for four primary segments. (Note: figures for September, 2015 were estimated.) Toyota/Scion was the best-selling Non Luxury Car brand, with a 2.5 point lead over second place Honda.

Ford was the top ranked Non Luxury Light Truck brand, ahead of Toyota and Jeep. Mercedes was the best-selling Luxury Car brand, while Acura was highest for trucks.

Top 10 Luxury Car Brands in Area MarketApril 2015 thru September 2015

Top 10 Non Luxury Light Truck Brands in Area MarketApril 2015 thru September 2015

Top 10 Luxury Light Truck Brands in Area MarketApril 2015 thru September 2015

Source: IHS Automotive. Source: IHS Automotive.


Fourth Quarter 2015

The graph below provides a comparison of Philadelphia Area and U.S. new retail market share during the first nine months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the area. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on area market share. Toyota was the area leader, accounting for 12.4% of the market, below its 13.3% share in the Nation.

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE

Subaru Area Market Share is Well Above U.S. Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Chevrolet were top sellers in the area

Area and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2015 thru September*

1.5%

2.7%

2.6%

1.2%

2.2%

2.1%

1.2%

2.0%

3.3%

2.0%

2.2%

3.8%

4.2%

3.9%

5.1%

10.7%

7.6%

9.5%

12.6%

13.3%

1.4%

1.5%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.4%

2.5%

2.7%

2.8%

3.5%

4.6%

5.5%

6.0%

6.6%

8.5%

10.3%

10.6%

12.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Chrysler

Ram

Dodge

Audi

Lexus

Volkswagen

Acura

BMW

GMC

Mazda

Mercedes

Kia

Hyundai

Subaru

Jeep

Chevrolet

Nissan

Honda

Ford

Toyota

Market Share

Area

U.S.

*Figures for September, 2015 were estimated. Source: IHS Automotive.

Subaru, Acura, Audi, Jeep, and Nissan area market shares were well above U.S. levels.


-2.5

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Jul-1

3 Au

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Cons

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FORECAST DETERMINANTS

Three Primary Factors Impacting New Vehicle Sales Indicators point to continued improvement in area new vehicle market

#1Consumer Sentiment

Consumer attitudes worsen somewhat during 2015

Impact on new vehicle sales:MILDLY POSITIVE

The consumer sentiment index softened a bit during the Second and Third Quarters of this year. Despite the decline, consumers still feel much better about their personal financial health than they did several years ago. Source: University of Michigan.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

#2Household Net Worth

Household net worth exceeds $85 trillion in Second Quarter of 2015

Impact on new vehicle sales:POSITIVE

After declining sharply in 2007 and 2008, household net worth has headed steadily upward during the past six years. The trend of improving net worth provides a boost to consumer spending. Source: Federal Re-serve.

U.S. Household Net Worth

#3Area Unemployment

Area unemployment ratehas declined steadily during the

past 26 months

Impact on new vehicle sales:POSITIVE

The graph on the right shows the monthly change in the area unemployment rate versus the same month a year earlier. The rate has declined from year earlier levels in each of the past 26 months. Source: BLS.

Monthly Change in Area Unemployment Rate (vs. year earlier)

Fourth Quarter 2015

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Ford Escape Ford F Series Subaru Forester

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Jeep Wrangler Ford Explorer Chevrolet Equinox

Mar

ket S

hare

2014 YTD

2015 YTD

Market shares for Rogue, Wrangler, and Equinox improved.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Toyota Camry Honda Accord Nissan Altima Honda Civic Toyota Corolla Hyundai Elantra

Ford Fusion Hyundai Sonata

Subaru Outback

Subaru Impreza

Mar

ket S

hare

2014 YTD

2015 YTD

Camry, Elantra, and Altima market shares increased.

MODEL SCOREBOARD

CR-V and RAV4 Lead Area Light Truck MarketCamry and Elantra have big market share gains

The two graphs below show market shares in the area car and light truck markets during the first eight months of 2014 and 2015. Includes the top ten selling car and light truck models.

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Cars - YTD 2015 thru August vs. YTD 2014

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Light Trucks - YTD 2015 thru August vs. YTD 2014

Source: IHS Automotive.



Montgomery 26.3%

Bucks 21.5% Philadelphia

20.4%

Chester 16.1%

Delaware 15.7%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

Philadelphia Delaware Montgomery Bucks Chester

COUNTY SCOREBOARD

Philadelphia County Market is Up 8% So Far in 2015Chevrolet market share is 7.8% in Bucks County

The tables below show specific data on each of the area’s five county markets. The figures represent new vehicles registered to retail cus-tomers residing in each of the counties, and includes both purchase and lease transac-

tions. Part 1 below shows total registrations and light truck market share during the first eight months of 2014 and 2015. Part 2 pres-ents market shares for Domestic brands, and the top 10 selling car and light truck brands in

the Philadelphia Area. The top ranked county in each category is shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive.

Share of Area MarketYTD 2015 thru August

Percent Change in New Retail RegistrationsYTD 2015 thru August vs. YTD 2014

COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 1Year to date thru August Percent Change Unit Change Light Truck Market Share (%)

YTD2014

YTD2015

2014 to2015

2014 to2015

YTD2014

YTD2015 Change

Bucks 27,553 27,978 1.5% 425 53.4 56.7 3.3

Chester 21,045 21,056 0.1% 11 54.3 59.5 5.1

Delaware 19,744 20,453 3.6% 709 51.6 55.6 4.0

Montgomery 33,607 34,272 2.0% 665 52.1 55.9 3.8

Philadelphia 24,672 26,658 8.0% 1,986 46.1 49.6 3.5

COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 2Market Share Summary - YTD thru August

Domestic Brands Top Ten Selling Brands in Area-YTD 2015YTD

2014YTD

2015Change

'14 to '15 Toyota Ford Honda Nissan Chev. Jeep Subaru Hyundai Kia MB

Bucks 34.7 36.0 1.3 11.8 11.1 9.1 7.9 7.8 5.6 5.9 5.1 3.1 2.7

Chester 33.1 33.3 0.2 11.5 10.7 10.1 6.6 6.0 6.6 6.5 3.9 3.2 3.2

Delaware 36.8 35.9 -0.8 11.8 11.9 11.4 9.4 5.6 6.6 4.7 4.6 3.6 2.5

Montgomery 29.8 31.0 1.2 12.0 10.4 11.1 7.8 6.9 5.5 6.0 4.4 2.8 3.3

Philadelphia 32.2 32.0 -0.2 14.4 9.4 10.3 11.0 6.6 5.3 4.1 4.8 5.1 1.9



Fourth Quarter 2015

Montgomery 26.3%

Bucks 21.5% Philadelphia

20.4%

Chester 16.1%

Delaware 15.7%

19.6% 18.3%

16.4% 15.1%

12.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Montgomery Chester Bucks Delaware Philadelphia

Luxu

ry v

ehic

le m

arke

t sha

re

66.2%

46.6% 44.9%

42.4% 39.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Philadelphia Chester Delaware Montgomery Bucks

% c

hang

e in

new

regi

stra

tions

YTD

'14

vs. Y

TD '0

9 COUNTY SCOREBOARD

Philadelphia County Posts Biggest Gain During Past 6 YearsLuxury vehicle market share is highest in Montgomery and Chester Counties

Six Year Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle RegistrationsYTD 2015 thru August vs. YTD 2009

Luxury Vehicle Share of Overall MarketYTD 2015 thru August



The first graph below highlights the long term performance of county light vehicle markets. It shows the percent change in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first eight months of this year, versus the same period in 2009. The second graph shows luxury vehicle market share by county. Highest luxury brand market share was in Montgomery and Chester Counties.



Provided by:Automobile Dealers Association of Greater Philadelphia3311 Swede Rd., Suite A East Norriton, PA 19401Phone: 610-279-5229FAX: 610 -279-5240Email: [email protected]

Published by:Auto Outlook, Inc

Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., October 2015

Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook is distributed exclusively to members of the Automobile Dealers Association (ADA) of Greater Philadelphia. The publication is supported and provided by the ADA of Greater Philadelphia.

Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive mar-ket research firm. Opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of Auto Outlook, and are not necessarily shared by the ADA of Greater Philadelphia.

BRAND MARKET SHARES

Ford is Light Truck Market Share LeaderToyota is number one for passenger cars

Toyota 13.6%

Honda 11.2%

Nissan 8.9%

Hyundai 7.8%

Ford 7.5%

Subaru 6.7%

Chevrolet 5.5%

Kia 4.6%

Volkswagen 4.5%

Mercedes 3.5%

Others 26.2%

Ford 13.1%

Toyota 11.3%

Jeep 10.6%

Honda 9.7%

Nissan 8.2%

Chevrolet 7.6%

GMC 4.5%

Subaru 4.5%

Ram 2.6%

Kia 2.6%

Others 25.1%

Greater Philadelphia AreaPassenger Car Market Share

YTD 2015 thru August

Greater Philadelphia AreaLight Truck Market Share

YTD 2015 thru August

The two graphs above show the top ten selling brands in the Philadelphia area passenger car and light truck markets during the first eight months of this year. Light trucks consists of all SUVs, pickups, and vans.


fourth quarter 2015 volume 27, number 4 forecast area new ...€¦ · page 2 greater philadelphia...

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