francesco venier- future forum 2013

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COME LAVOREREMO (E VIVREMO) NEL FUTURO? Scarica la presentazione da: http://bit.ly/futureforum2013venier FRANCESCO VENIER +39 040 9188 103 [email protected] www.checovenier.com Docente di Social Media Strategy and Personal Branding @ MIB School of Management www.mib.edu Docente di Organizational Behavior and Design @ Università di Trieste www.units.it

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Page 1: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

COME LAVOREREMO (E VIVREMO) NEL FUTURO? Scarica la presentazione da: http://bit.ly/futureforum2013venier

FRANCESCO VENIER +39 040 9188 103

[email protected]

www.checovenier.com

Docente di Social Media Strategy and Personal Branding @ MIB School of Management www.mib.edu Docente di Organizational Behavior and Design @ Università di Trieste www.units.it

Page 2: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

What is going on under our eyes

Page 3: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Some data on an healthy economy

Page 4: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

3.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0% -

Annu.al Ptr·oductivity· ~Cha tnge in the INion-·fa1rm Business. S.ector b~y De·cade,1·9S0s-2000s

2.7%

2.2% 2 .1%

L7% 1.6%

1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1.990-99

2.5%

2000-09

Fii·gure 3 .. 1: Productiv ity g1rowth has been growing. Source~ BurHau of Labor Statisti1cs.

Page 5: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

+71% in 15 years

+13% in 40 years

Page 6: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

-o o ... Il

a.n ...... Ql ... -x ai

'"a r: -

l 1n ~dex ~o~f ~Gr~o,wth in U.S~. Rea1l GDP per Cap~ita1 a1nd 190 IR~e,al Mledia1n Hlous~eho~ l ~d lll nc~ome,, 119'75~2008~

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

Real GDP per Capita

..... -.... .,. ' .... ... """ ' R··e"a. l

/ --- '\

l l l l l l l l l l l l l l

1975 197'8 1981 1.984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Medlian !Householdl ~n come

Fiigure 3,.3: Reali GD,P per ~ca[pita has ~grown s iigJniifica.ntly f 'aster than reali median household incom1e. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ..

Page 7: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

45%

35%

-o h 2 ·if'IL)./ > . V 7'0 il!l c.. E .. 15% 4!

* z lo&J6 .§ G.! lbO 1: 5% (1111

é ::.E: G 0%

-5% 1

l l

J

("

l . J-.;'' , . l ...._

/ _,~ l

' l - l l \ ~~

l ' )'v / ~

2 3 6 Year ~n Decade

,.,. ,...,, \ . / "" ,- r "\t l940s~, 37.7 %

7

,. ,.. ,. 1960s, 31.1% ,

";' -- -19705, 27.6% ,. ,..!' ., _,.. , , 1950s, 24. 7%,

/ l

8 9

19:80.s, 20~2%

1990s, 19. a%

2000s, -1.1%

10

Figu re 3 .4~: In tlhe ne'W mi~ lenni um, j ~ob g r~owt:h stallls. Sou ree: BtJrea u of Labor StatDsties_

Page 8: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

$1,600

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000

'Ili

.fi $800 = ·-11:1:1

$f!()0

$400

$200

$0

U,.S. IRe,al C~orp~orate Pr~ofits, AfterTa1x, 19~9~0-·2010

(·with lnv~entory va~lua1tion a1 1n~d Capitai ~consum~pti~on Adjustm1ents )1

198'0 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fiigu r·e 3 .. 6:: Proflits soar in 'the curtr~ent re~co·v·ery. Sour~oe: Bureau of Economie Analys~s.

Page 9: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

US Manufacturing, 1970-2010 Value Added vs Employment

2,000 25,000

1,800 -- ~

~ c: c: .Q o 1,600 20,000 ·-- ~ a5 -'(/). 1,400 ... - c: 'tl OJ OJ E 'tl 1,200 15,000 'tl > < .9 OJ Q.

:l 1,000 E nJ w > a.Q

c: a.Q 800 10,000 'i: c:

' i: :l ... :l v ... 600 ('IS v --5 :l

c: c: 400 5,000

('IS

('IS ~ ~ ~

200 :::>

o o 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Page 10: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

IIÌ(Ir

'" ' llliQ 111!1

3: : .. ':li 'r!i:ir

,~,

=::

0.6

0.5

0.4

IIIQ 0.3· IQ!r ~l

'iiii

'"' D::

-0.1 1963

Changes irn Wa;ge~s for F1uiiii-T'ime, F1uii~Year, IMa le

l l

1968

U .S. Wo~r·ker~s,,, 1196~3-21008, Graduate Schorol

1978

. ...... ' ....... , 11111l ,fil•tMI1j<• ,

il , ,., ......

~.. \. , ·. ~ ~ ... ,. ., ..

~ ·. . ., .... l·. .. •• • • • l • • iii • •

• i ., • • • •• •• . , •if!•ltl

.Il! li •• • itì

College Graduate

Some College

Hligh School Gimdlllait 'e

High S<:hool

1983 1988 1993 1.998 2003

-.,.-Dnlpcut

2008

!Firgure 3.5: Wa,ges, hav~e· inc1reased 'for those w'itlh the 1most edurcati,on~ whillre fallling f:or thos,e· ·witih1 thte· llea.st~ Souroe~: Acemoglu end Autor ,analys,is o,f the Current Popu~a1Uon Suruey ·ror ·1963-2008.

Page 11: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Unemployment rate, by education, 2007 and 2011 ::oc\)

ISr:, 17.8%

l h':.

l·l'i:>

CII ... (Q J"W ~

_\) 11 .1% - 10.3% c: CII

E I O~:·.

8.6% ~ .2 Q. 8l;, E CII c:

=> 6~*' 5.4% 5.2%

4.000 •t ~";',

2.4%

2r: ..

H1::;h s.:hoo1

Sour<e: t. >1 aia~js.s of b)SJC rto"''thV Cu·rerr l'op1.da t1•Jn )U rJ-?"i m'ctoJata

• 2007

201 1

1./%

3.3%

Page 12: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

What is the cause of this more and more uneven income distribution and

employment crisis/stagnation?

Page 13: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

A Disconcerting Perspective

Page 14: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

The Second Half of the Chessboard

�  The Google car(truck?) �  IBM Deep Blue beats Kasparov

1997 �  IBM Watson wins Jeopardy

2012 �  Text readers/

Pattern recognition (goodbye legions of lawyers -only 60% accurate)

�  Automated ‘call centers’ (goodbye offshoring)

�  GeoFluent (goodbye translators)

�  Vending machines for … everything > Retail jobs disappearing

Page 15: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

What about more creative jobs as musical composition or poetry?

Page 16: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“ … The audience then voted on the

identity of each composition.* [Music theory professor and contest

organizer] Larson’s pride took a ding when his piece was fingered as

that belonging to the computer. When the crowd decided that

[algorithm] Emmy’s piece was the true product of the late musician

[Bach], Larson winced.” —Christopher Steiner,

Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World

*There were three: Bach/Larson/Emmy-the-algorithm.

Page 17: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“ … Which haiku are human writing and which are

from a group of bits? Sampling centuries of haiku, devising rules, spotting patterns, and

inventing ways to inject originality, Annie [algorithm] took to the short Japanese sets of prose the same way all of [Prof David] Cope’s. algorithms tackled classical music. ‘In the end,

it’s just layers and layers of binary math, he says. … Cope says Annie’s penchant for tasteful

originality could push her past most human composers who simply build on work of the past.,

which, in turn, was built on older works. …” —Christopher Steiner, Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule

Our World

Page 18: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“Software Seen Giving Grades

on Essay Tests”

—Headline, p 1, New York Times /0405.13

Page 19: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“Algorithms have already written symphonies as moving as those composed by

Beethoven, picked through legalese

better than a senior law partner, diagnosed patients with more accuracy than a

doctor, written news articles with the

smooth hand of a seasoned reporter, and driven vehicles on urban highways with far

better control than a human driver.”

—Christopher Steiner: Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule the World

Page 20: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.”

—Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach

Page 21: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“The median worker is losing the race against

the machine.”

—Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Race Against the Machine

Page 22: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“The root of our problem is not that we’re in a Great Recession

or a Great Stagnation, but rather that we are in the early

times of a Great Restructuring.

Our technologies are racing ahead, but our skills and organizations

are lagging behind.”

Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Page 23: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“In some sense you can argue that the science

fiction scenario is already starting to happen. The

computers are in control. We just live in their

world.”

—Danny Hillis, The Connection Machine

Page 24: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

The three effects of technology on work

•  Technology is developed in order to be “substitutive” of work. But this is just technology’s first loop effect.

•  The innovation changes the roles (hence the power) of people and enables two second loop effects that are human centered and empower us to shape the future of work with unprecedented freedom. These effects are: “Integrative” & “Innovative”

Page 25: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Technology has always changed work (and society)

•  Agriculture -> Urban Civilization •  Writing -> Philosophy •  Press -> Science •  Steam Engine -> Industrial Revolution •  Electric & Internal combustion engines •  Jet Engine and Radio/TV

•  Computer/Internet -> Knowledge Economy •  Social Technologies – Big Data … ->???

Page 26: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Consider this ...

Page 27: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Te n years ago there were no soci al networl<s.

• l

facebook.

®

space rnY friends a ptacefor

Page 28: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Ten years before that we didn•t h ave the Web.

Page 29: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

lf you in the web programming, online marketing, or mobile p hone industries ...

Page 30: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013
Page 31: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Who l<nows what jobs will exist

twenty years from now?

Page 32: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

12 disruptive technologies

Page 33: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Next-generation genomics

Energy storage

....... ~····... _...:···· ... ~ 30 printing · · · ~ ....... ...... .. . .. : .....

1,,, ....._.1~ ,,,

1\ ~-~

Advanced materials

Advanced o i l an d gas exploration and recovery

Renewable energy

SOUIRCE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis

Fast, low-cost gene sequencing, advanced big data analytics, and synthetic biology ("writing" DNA)

Devices or systems that store energy for later use, including batteries

Additive manufacturing techniques to create objects by printing layers of materia! based on digitai models

Materials designed to have superior characteristics (e.g. , strength, weight, conductivity) or functionality

Exploration and recovery techniques that make extraction of unconventional oil and gas economica!

Generation of electricity from renewable sources with reduced harmful climate impact

Page 34: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Speed, scope, and economie value at stake of 12 potentially economically disruptive technologies

Mobile Internet

Illustrative rates of technology improvement and diffusion

$5 million vs. $4002

Price of the fastest supercomputer in 1975 vs. that of an iPhone 4 today, equal in performance (MFLOPS)

6x Growth in sales of smartphones and tablets since launch of iPhone in 2007

Illustrative groups, products, and resources that could be impacted1

4.3 billion People remaining to be connected to the Internet, potentially through mobile Internet

1 billion Transaction and interaction workers, nearly 40% of global workforce

Illustrative pools of economie value that could be impacted1

$1.7 trillion GDP related to the Internet

$25 trillion lnteraction and transaction worker employment costs, 70% of global employment costs

................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. Automation 100x 230+ million $9+ trillion of knowledge lncrease in computing power from IBM's Deep Blue Knowledge workers, 9% of global Knowledge worker employment costs, work (chess champion in 1997) to Watson (Jeopardy workforce 27% of global employment costs

winner in 2011 ) 1.1 billion 400+ million Smartphone users, with potential to use lncrease in number of users of intel ligent digitai automated digitai assistance apps assistants like Siri and Google Now in last 5 years

···~ --~·~·~·~·······i~i~·;~·~i-~i··········3·ao%···························································································· :; ·i~i-iii·~~································································;s36" i~i-iii~;;·························································

~~ ~ ~ Things lncrease in connected machine-to-machine devices Things that could be connected to the Operating costs of key affected industries ~'~ ~ over past 5 years Internet across industries such as (manufacturing, health care, and mining)

80_90% manufacturing, health care, and mining $4 trillion

Price decline in MEMS (microelectromechanical 40 million Global health care spend on chronic systems) sensors in last 5 years Annual deaths from chronic diseases diseases

like Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

·········~~~~~;:;········f~~-~~~h:~~-~= ·~:~:;·:~~::~~:~·;:;·~:;1·~;·················-~~:::··-···-···-···-···-··-···f~=~~·::-:::~·-··-···-···-

Monthly cost of owning a server vs. renting in Servers in the world Enterprise IT spend the cloud ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Advanced 75-85% 320 million $6 trillion robotics Lower price for Baxter3 than a typical industriai robot Manufacturing workers, 12% of global Manufacturing worker employment costs,

170% workforce 19% of global employment costs

Growth in sales of industriai robots, 2009--11 250 million $2-3 trillion Annual major surgeries Cost of major surgeries

Page 35: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

DOWNLOAD THE FULL MGI REPORT: - http://bit.ly/19AEOnt

Page 36: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

1. The power to invent (and execute) is switching/flipping rapidly/inexorably to the network. “Me” is transitioning to “We”—as consumers and producers. Nouns are giving way to gerunds—it’s an “ing”/shapeshifting world! 2. The Internet must stay open and significantly unregulated to enable, among other things, the entrepreneurial spurt that will significantly underpin world economic growth. 3. Entrepreneurial behavior and upstart entrepreneurial enterprises have underpinned every monster shift in the past, such as farm to factory. This time will likely be no different. 4. An obsession with a “Fortune 500” of more or less stable giants dictating “the way we do things” will likely become an artifact of the past. (Though big companies/"utilities" will not disappear.)

Page 37: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

5. There is simply no limit to invention or entrepreneurial opportunities! (Please read twice.) 6. The new star bosses will be “wizards”/“maestros.” 7. Sources of sustained profitability will often be elusive in a “soft-services world.” 8. Control and accountability will be a delicate dance. Now you see it, now you don't ... 9. Trial and error, many many many trials and many many many errors very very very rapidly will be the rule; tolerance for and delight in rapid learning—and unlearning—will be a/the most valued skill.

Page 38: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“We are in no danger of running out of new combinations try. Even if technology froze today, we have more possible ways of configuring

the different applications, machines, tasks, and distribution channels to create new processes and products than we could ever

exhaust.” —Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving

Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy

Page 39: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“Human creativity

is the ultimate economic

resource.” —Richard Florida

Page 40: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“The prospect of contracting a gofer on an a la carte basis is enticing. For instance, wouldn’t it be convenient if I could outsource someone to write

a paragraph here, explaining the history of outsourcing in America? Good idea! I went ahead and commissioned just such a paragraph from Get Friday, a ‘virtual personal assistant- firm based in Bangalore. … The paragraph arrived in my in-box ten days after I ordered it. It was 1,356 words.

There is a bibliography with eleven sources. … At $14 an hour for seven hours of work, the cost came

to $98. …” —Patricia Marx, “Outsource Yourself,” The New Yorker, 01.14.2013 (Marx

describes in detail contracting out everything associated with hosting her book club — including the provision of “witty” comments on Proust, since she

hadn’t had time to read the book—excellent comments only set her

back $5; the writer/contractor turned out to be a 14-year-old girl from New Jersey.)

Page 41: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“Be the best. It’s the only

market that’s not crowded.”

From: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best

Independent Stores in America, George Whalin

Page 42: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

10.  “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant degree led by youth.

11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively inhabit the network per se. 12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90 years ago.)

Page 43: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

MMORPG/Massively

Multiplayer Online Role-

Playing Games

Source: Jane McGonigal, Reality Is

Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How They Can

Change the World

Page 44: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“The popularity of an unwinnable game like Tetris completely upends the stereotype

that gamers are highly competitive people who care more about winning than

anything else. Competition and winning are not defining traits of games—nor are they

defining interests of the people who love to play them. Many gamers would rather keep playing than win. In high-feedback games, the state of being intensely engaged may ultimately be more pleasurable than the

satisfaction of winning.”

—Jane McGonigal, Reality Is Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How They Can Change the World

Page 45: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“It may have once been true that computer games

encouraged us to act more with machines than with each other. But if you still think of gamers

as loners, then you’re not playing games.”

— Jane McGonigal, Reality Is Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How

They Can Change the World

Page 46: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

10.  “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant degree led by youth.

11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively inhabit the network per se. 12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90 years ago.)

Page 47: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“I speak to you with a feminine voice. It’s the voice of democracy, of equality. I am certain, ladies and

gentlemen, that this will be the women’s

century. In the Portuguese language, words such as life, soul, and hope are of the feminine

gender, as are other words like courage and sincerity.”

—President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, 1st woman to keynote the UN General Assembly

Page 48: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Bachelor’s degree, age 25-34: 40% F; 30% M

Graduate degree

students: 60% F; 40% M

Source: Sydney Morning Herald /26.03.12

Page 49: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

10.  “Gamers” instinctively “get” the idea of lots of trials, lots of errors, as fast as possible; for this reason among many, “the revolution” is/will be to a very significant degree led by youth.

11. Women may well flourish to the point of domination in new leadership roles in these emergent/ethereal settings that dominate the landscape—power will be exercised almost entirely indirectly (routine for most women—more than for their male counterparts), and will largely/elusively inhabit the network per se. 12. The “Brand You/Brand Me” idea is alive and well and getting healthier every day and is … not optional. Fact is, we mostly all will have to behave/be entrepreneurial tapdancers to survive let alone thrive. (Again, the under-35 set already seem mostly to get this; besides, this was the norm until 90 years ago.)

Page 50: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Circa 2013: Coming to Believe

13. Individual performance and accountability will be more important than ever, but will be measured by one’s peers along dimensions such as reliability, trustworthiness, engagement, flexibility, willingness to spend a majority of one’s time helping others with no immediate expected return. 14. ICT is ripping through traditional jobs at an accelerating pace. Virtually no job, no matter how “high end,” will remain in a recognizable way within 15-25 years. It’s as simple—and as traumatic—as that. 15. Wholesale/continuous/intense re-education (forgetting as well as learning) is a lifelong pursuit/imperative; parent Goal #1: Don’t kill the curiosity with which the child is born!

Page 51: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

+400,000*/-2,000,000**

“new computing technologies that destroy middle-class [white-collar] jobs even as they create jobs for highly skilled workers

who can exploit them”

*Managerial jobs added USA 2007-2012

**White-collar jobs lost USA 2007-2012

Source: Financial Times, page 1, 0402.13 (“Clerical Staff Bears Brunt of US Jobs Crisis”)

Page 52: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“I believe that ninety percent of white-

collar jobs in the U.S. will be either

destroyed or altered beyond recognition in

the next 10 to 15 years.”

(Tom Peters 22 May 2000/ Time magazine)

Page 53: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

China too/Foxconn:

1,000,000 robots in next

3 years

Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Page 54: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Fab Labs/Fabrication Labs/Fabulous Labs/digital fabrication machine/ parts themselves are digitalized/

3-D printer /MIT Center for Bits and Atoms/ Prof Neil

Gershenfeld/ $5K: “large-format computer-controlled milling machine can make all the parts in an IKEA flat-

pack box” customized for the individual/Etc./Etc.

Source: “How to Make Almost Anything,” Beil Gershenfeld, Foreign Affairs/11-12.2012

Page 55: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Multiple Choice Examination

You will lose your job to; choose one …

(1)   An offshore contractor? (2)   A computer? (White collar)

(3)   A robot? (Blue collar)

Source: Adapted from Dan Pink

Page 56: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Multiple Choice Examination

You will lose your job to; choose one …

(1)   An offshore contractor? (2)   A computer? (White collar)

(3)   A robot? (Blue collar)

(4)  A re-tooled value-added “Brand You”?

Source: Adapted from Dan Pink

Page 57: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“Knowledge becomes obsolete incredibly fast.

The continuing professional

education of adults is the No. 1 industry in the next 30 years … mostly on line.” —Peter Drucker

Page 58: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

"The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot

read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and

relearn." —Alvin Toffler

Page 59: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

We need “Figure it Out” Jobs “With GE’s future success dependent

on creative innovation, we are now continually making such demands of our people. We expect employees to thrive in uncertainty, take initiative, and respond resiliently when their ideas fall short.”

•  Beth Comstock 2013 Chief Marketing Officer @ General Electric

Page 60: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“You must realize that how you invest your human capital matters as much as how you invest your

financial capital. Its rate of return determines your future options. Take a job for what it teaches you, not for what it pays. Instead of a potential employer

asking, ‘Where do you see yourself in 5 years?’ you’ll ask, ‘If I invest my mental assets with you for 5 years,

how much will they appreciate? How much will my portfolio of career

options grow?’ ” —Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH

Page 61: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

(1) People first! (2) Value through creativity! (3) Entrepreneurial ubiquity!

Page 62: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“All human beings are entrepreneurs. When we were

in the caves we were all self-employed . . . finding our food, feeding ourselves. That’s where human history

began . . . As civilization came we suppressed it. We became labor

because they stamped us, ‘You are labor.’ We forgot that we are

entrepreneurs.” —Muhammad Yunus/

The News Hour/PBS/1122.2006

Page 63: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

“We are CEOs of our own companies.

ME inc. To be in business today, our most important job is to be head marketer for the brand

called you” Tom Peters

Page 64: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

INTEGRATIVE +

INNOVATIVE

Page 65: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

SOCIAL TECHNO-LOGIES AHEAD

Page 66: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Social Technologies

•  We define Social Technologies as digital technologies that share three characteristics:

1.  Are enabled by information technology 2.  Provide distributed right to create, add

and/or modify content 3.  Enable distributed access to consume

content

Page 67: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013
Page 68: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Social technologies incllude a broad range of applications that can be used both by consumers and enterprises

l NOT EXHAUSTIVE

Upload, share, and comment on photos, videos, and audio

Connect with friends and strangers to play games

Harness collective knowledge and generate collectively derived answers

Co-create content; coordinate joint projects and tasks

Discuss topics in open communities; rapidly access expertise

Social analytics1

Keep connected through personal and business profi1les

PubHsh and discuss opinions and experiences

Evaluate andrate products, services, and experiences; share opinions

Purchasing in groups, on social platforms, and sharing opinions

Search, create and adapt articles; rapidly access stored knowledge

1 Social analytics is the practice of measuring and analyzing interactions across social technolog~y platforms to inform decisions.

SOURCIE: McKinsey Globallnstitute analysis

Page 69: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Ten ways social technologies can add value in organizational functions within and across enterprises Organizational functions

Customer servi ce

Business support2

0----------------------------------------: Derive customer insights1 :

l

----------------------------------------J

1 Co-create products

2 Leverage social to forecast and monitor

3 Use social to distribute business processes

4

5

6

7

8

Derive customer insights

Use social technologies for marketing communicationlinteraction

Generate and foster sales leads

Social commerce

Provide customer care via social technologies

lmprove collaboration and communication; match talent to tasks3

Across enti re enterprise

9

Use social technology to improve intra- or inter-organ izational collaboration and communication

10

Use social technology to match talent to tasks

1 Deriving customer insights for product development is included in customer insights (lever 4) under marketing and sal es. 2 Business support functions are corporate or administrative activit ies such as human resources or finance and accounting. 3 Levers 9 and 1 O apply to business support functions as they do across the other functional value areas.

SOURCE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis

Page 70: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Potential value and ease of capture vary across sectors Directional

HigherJ

P ha rmaceuticals •

Health care providers

Consumer products

Education-e

Media and entertainment

IUS EXAMPLE

e Relati1V9 size of G DP contribution

Software~ and Internet • l

Professional services

Value potenti al Food and

beverage processmg

Banking Lo ca l Transportation

' National Chemicals e

Energy manufacturing government

Lower

Lower

SOURCE: McKinsey Global lnstitute analysis

wholesale Construction

Ease of capturing value potential

lnsurance

Higher

Page 71: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Value available through collaborati1on and other benefits of social technologies varies across industries o/o

63 57 49 48

30 24

CPG P&C L ife Retail Profes- Semi- Auto insurance insurance banking sional

serv1ces

SOUIRCE: McKinsey Global llnstitute anallysis

conductors

38

Aero­space

• Collaboration

Other benefits

34

Average

Page 72: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

What is the groundswell? “A social trend in which people use technologies to get the things they need from each other, rather than from traditional institutions like corporations.”

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140 CHARACTER TWEETS SENT EVERY SINGLE DAYON TWITTER.

TWITTfR l 2011

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1/8 MINUTES ONLINE IS SPENT ON FACEBOOK.

COMSCORE l FEBRUARY 2011

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APRI L 2009 - MAY 201 O

13% INCREASE

88% INCREASE

100%

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9 OF lO INTERNET USERS VISIT SOCIAL NETWORKS MONTHLY.

COMSCORE l FEBRUARY 2011

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read blogs monthly

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more time spent with social media than email.

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pieces of content shared o n Facebook month ly

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IT’S A CHANGED WORKERS-SCAPE

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IT’S A CHANGED MANAGER-SCAPE

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SO…

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What is the

FUTURE OF WORI<?

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- -. - - --,

The future of work i s ... 1

- ----~--==--~~-----=--- ------ - --- -- - - - - -~

TRANSPARENT

D

Page 89: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

No o ne is going to just tal<e your word far it.

t l

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Now, ti me an d tasl< tracl<ing tools are revolutionizing productivity measurement.

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The more productively you worl<,

the more money you'll mal<e.

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rk,

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The only options for communication were

landline phones or snail mai l.

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Today, project teams use amazing web tools

Page 99: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Tools lil<e Sl<ype have made

long-distance calling virtually free.

Page 100: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

The world is now flat.

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''f•·u.~

l ' ~ ( ~ .

'

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…or, better, will matter in a new

way!

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And informai education is more accessi bi e than ever.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/04/booming/answers-for-middle-aged-seekers-of-moocs-part-1.html http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/booming/advice-for-middle-age-seekers-of-moocs-part-2.html

MOOCs like Coursera.org, Udacity.org give courses online for FREE From TOP Universities like MIT, Stanford, Harvard…

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lt is commonplace to h ire vendors an d contractors fra m across the planet.

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O ne in four organizations plans to increase spending an outsourcing

by 25°/o or more this year.

SOURCE

Page 115: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

According to interviews with more than 500 executives, the l<ey benefit of outsourcing

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io stav emp\oved \n the wor\<p\ace of the future

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Many businesses are choosing

over hiring new employees.

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The word "career" is as outdated as the word "typewriter".

Career

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lndependent individuals with unique talents get together to worl< o n a

company's project.

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At the end, they ali go their separate ways. They might worl< together aga in in the

future. They might not.

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lt's a whole new paradigm.

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So why should you consider this?

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lndividuals will have more freedom an d power

than ever before.

l

i

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Employers will h ave access to

a larger and more sl<illed worl<force.

Page 133: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

A BRAND CALLED

YOU

Page 134: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

= :E = c.,~ '-::: = ·- -~·=-~ 8 ~ n.,§

c= i §; l -• ca ,...., eu --

l res onsible -~ l

= • "bi eu exciting VISI e.·

memorable • ' '» l

• •

Page 135: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Our business in life is not to get ahead of others, butto get ahead of ourselves

'' + ~ Email Me

Professar of management @ Trieste University

Associate Dean far Executive Education @ mib.edu

Business model innovation scholar and management education architect

... but also local food heritage entrepreneur,

slowfood, wine, travel & photography addict,

BMW GS biker an d yes, F16 fighter pilot ;-)

My purpose ls to enable people and organlzatlons

to defy outmoded business models by lnnovatlng

management practlces through the professlonal use

of soclal technologles

Latest Posts

Just Make a

Page 136: Francesco Venier- Future Forum 2013

Bibliografia (ita) •  Brynjolfsson E., McAfee A. (2011) In gara con le macchine: La technologia aiuta il lavoro?

http://amzn.to/16vh8TF

•  Donkin R. (2012) Il futuro del lavoro http://bit.ly/FuturoDelLavoro

•  Hoffman R., Cosnocha B. (2013) The Start-up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career http://bit.ly/SARTUPOFYOU

•  Li C. & Bernoff J. (2011) Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies http://bit.ly/GroundswellLiBernoff

•  McGonigal, J. (2010) La Realtà in Gioco: Perchè I giochi ci rendono migliori e possono cambiare il mondo http://bit.ly/RealtaInGioco

•  Moretti E. (2013) La nuova geografia del lavoro http://amzn.to/17TIj62

•  Steiner C. (2012) Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World http://bit.ly/AutomateThis