from disasters to wow: enabling knowledge networks in 21st ...€¦ · p*/exponential random graph...

Noshir ContractorProfessor, Departments of Speech Communication & PsychologyProfessor, Departments of Speech Communication & PsychologyDirector, Age of Networks Initiative, Center for Advanced StudyDirector, Age of Networks Initiative, Center for Advanced Study

Director, Science of Networks in Communities Director, Science of Networks in Communities --National Center for Supercomputing ApplicationsNational Center for Supercomputing Applications

University of Illinois at UrbanaUniversity of Illinois at [email protected]@uiuc.edu

From Disasters to WoW:Enabling Knowledge Networks in

21st Century Organizational Forms

Key Takeaway: Distinct roles of network visualization to ….

…… help network members discover, help network members discover, diagnose, and design their networksdiagnose, and design their networks

…… help network researchers for exploratory help network researchers for exploratory network analysisnetwork analysis

…… help network researchers for help network researchers for confirmatory network analysisconfirmatory network analysis

WHY DO WE CREATE,

MAINTAIN, DISSOLVE, AND

RECONSTITUTE OUR COMMUNICATION AND

KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS?

Social Drivers:Why do we create and sustain networks?

Theories of selfTheories of self--interestinterestTheories of social and Theories of social and resource exchangeresource exchangeTheories of mutual Theories of mutual interest and collective interest and collective actionaction

Theories of contagionTheories of contagionTheories of balanceTheories of balanceTheories of homophilyTheories of homophilyTheories of proximityTheories of proximityTheories of coTheories of co--evolutionevolution

Sources:Contractor, N. S., Wasserman, S. & Faust, K. (2006). Testing multi-theoretical multilevel hypotheses

about organizational networks: An analytic framework and empirical example. Academy of Management Review.

Monge, P. R. & Contractor, N. S. (2003). Theories of Communication Networks. New York: Oxford University Press.

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In d u s try

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Novice Expert

“Structural signatures” of MTML

Theories of Self interest Theories of Exchange

Theories of Collective Action

Theories of Balance

Theories of Homophily Theories of Cognition

Unraveling the “Structural Signatures”p*/Exponential Random Graph Modeling (ERGM)

“A statistical MRI”

The observed network is one realization of The observed network is one realization of the many possible random realizations of the many possible random realizations of the network.the network.

Confirmatory Network Analysis: The Confirmatory Network Analysis: The questions of interest in statistical modeling questions of interest in statistical modeling is whether the observed network exhibits is whether the observed network exhibits the theoretically hypothesized structural the theoretically hypothesized structural tendencies.tendencies.

Exploring Exploiting Mobilizing Bonding SwarmingTheories of Self-Interest + --

Theories of Collective Action + + + Theories of Cognition + + + Theories of Balance -- + +

Theories of Exchange + + Theories of Contagion + + Theories of Homophily -- + Theories of Proximity -- + +

A contextual “meta-theory” ofsocial drivers for creating and sustaining

communities

Challenges of empirically testing, extending, and exploring theories about networks … until now

The capturing of massive amounts of digitalized information about human behavior (especially relational behavior)

+

The capacity to manipulate those data

=

New insights into collective human behavior

Source: David Lazer available at http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/netgov/files/talks/docs/05_07_07_seminar_Lazer_computational_social_science.pdf

Core ResearchSocial Drivers for

Creating & Sustaining Communities

Business Applications

PackEdge Community of Practice (P&G)

Vodafone-Ericsson “Club”for virtual supply chain management (Vodafone)

Societal Justice Applications

Cultural & Networks AssetsIn Immigrant Communities (Rockefeller Program on Culture & Creativity)

Economic Resilience NGO Community (Rockefeller Program on Working Communities)

Entertainment Applications

World of Warcraft (NSF)

Everquest (NSF, Sony Online Entertainment)

Second Life (Linden Labs)

Science Applications

CLEANER: Collaborative Large Engineering & Analysis Network for Environmental Research (NSF)

CP2R: Collaboration for Preparedness, Response & Recovery (NSF)

TSEEN: Tobacco Surveillance Evaluation & Epidemiology Network (NSF, NIH, CDC)

Projects Investigating Social Drivers for Communities

MTML meets XMLTheorizing the creation, maintenance, dissolution and reconstituTheorizing the creation, maintenance, dissolution and reconstitution tion (CMDR) of network linkages between people, sensors, data (CMDR) of network linkages between people, sensors, data sets/streams, documents, and visualsets/streams, documents, and visual--analytic tools analytic tools –– extending extending ““smallsmall--worldworld”” or or ““scalescale––freefree”” dynamics dynamics

Testing theoretical propositions about Testing theoretical propositions about existing network configurationsexisting network configurationsusing unprecedented digital trace data using unprecedented digital trace data

Developing network recommender systems to assist membersDeveloping network recommender systems to assist members’’navigation of multidimensional networks navigation of multidimensional networks

Testing theoretical propositions about Testing theoretical propositions about potential network potential network reconfigurationsreconfigurations by assessing membersby assessing members’’ use (or nonuse (or non--use) of network use) of network recommendations.recommendations.

Bios, titles & descriptions

Personal Web sites Google search results

Web of Science Citation

CATPAC UBERLINK

NETDRAW

Digital Harvesting

CI-KNOW Analyses and Visualizationshttp://iknowinc.com/iknow/sb_digital_forum/www/iknow.cgi

Multidimensional Networks in CI (Cyberinfrastructure)Multiple Types of Nodes and Multiple Types of Relationships

http://www2.hawaii.edu/~ogden/icon/max.dance1.gif

http://www.hafdis.dk/Pictures/denmark/jul/2003jul/031129 Juleklip/04 Santa Claus af �ldre model.jpg














CP2R: Collaboration for Preparedness, Response & Recovery (NSF)



Hurricane Katrina 2005Formed:Formed: Aug 23, 2005Aug 23, 2005Dissipated:Dissipated: Aug 31, 2005Aug 31, 2005Highest wind:Highest wind: 175 mph175 mphLowest press:Lowest press: 902 mbar902 mbarDamages:Damages: $81.2 Billion$81.2 BillionFatalities:Fatalities: >1,836>1,836Areas affected:Areas affected: Bahamas,Bahamas,

South Florida, South Florida, Cuba, Louisiana Cuba, Louisiana (especially (especially Greater New Greater New Orleans), Orleans), Mississippi, Mississippi, Alabama, Alabama, Florida Florida Panhandle, most Panhandle, most of eastern North of eastern North AmericaAmerica

Map source: http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/ Data and picture source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina/

8/23

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8/29

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8/31

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Hurricane_Katrina_August_28_2005_NASA.jpg

SITREP Content

Basic Format / InformationBasic Format / Information1.1. Situation (What, Where, and When)Situation (What, Where, and When)2.2. Action in ProgressAction in Progress3.3. Action PlannedAction Planned4.4. Probable Support Requirements and/or Probable Support Requirements and/or

Support AvailableSupport Available5.5. Other itemsOther items

Typical SITREP

*Colorado Division of Emergency ManagementSITUATION REPORT 2005-6

(Hurricane Katrina)August 30, 2005*

*Event Type:* Hurricane Response

*Situation:* On August 29, Hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast east of NewOrleans. It was considered a Category 5 Hurricane, which brings winds ofover 155mph and storm surge of 18 feet above normal. Massive property damagehas occurred and undetermined number of deaths and injuries.

Colorado response to date include two deployments:- Two members from the Division of Emergency Management to the Louisiana

EOC, departed on August 29.· · ·

*Weather Report:* Katrina is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph.A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed is expected duringthe next 24 hours. This motion should bring the cent

· · ·*Agencies Involved:* Colorado Department of Military and Veteran Affairs,Department of Local Affairs, Division of Emergency Management, Governor'sOffice.* *

*Additional Assistance Requested:* Type III teams, consisting of Operations,Plans, and Logistics personnel (two individuals for each area). These teamscould deploy to Alabama, Louisiana, and/or Mississippi. Teams will beat either working the State or Parish/County EOCs.

· · ·

Automatic CodingT2K T2K –– The Text to Knowledge application The Text to Knowledge application environment is a rapid, flexible data mining environment is a rapid, flexible data mining and machine learning systemand machine learning systemAutomated processing is done through Automated processing is done through creating itineraries that combine processing creating itineraries that combine processing modules into a workflowmodules into a workflowDeveloped by the Automated Learning Group Developed by the Automated Learning Group at NCSAat NCSA

Time Slice 1: 8/23 to 8/25/2005

ARCSAL

FEMA

Shelter

TX

KY

AL

LA

NO

Gov Bush

FL

Petroleum Network formed Early

Florida is the Topicof the Conversation

Time Slice 1 to 2

ARCSAL

FEMA

Shelter

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KY

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LA

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Gov Bush

FL

PowerFP&L

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Military

Time Slice 2: 8/26 to 8/27/2005

ARC

SAL

FEMA

Shelter

TXMSLA

NO

Gov Bush

FL PowerFP&L

GA

Military

Time Slice 2 to 3

ARC

SAL

FEMA

Shelter

TXMSLA

NO

Gov Bush

FL

Power

FP&L

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Military

NC

Time Slice 3: 8/28 to 8/29/2005

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

MS LA

NO

Gov Bush

FL

PowerFP&L

NC

Military

GA

Time Slice 3 to 4

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

MS LA

NO

Gov Bush

FL

PowerFP&L

NC

Military

GA

AL Power

S & R

National Guard

AL

Time Slice 4: 8/30 to 8/31/2005

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

MS

LA

NO

FLPower

FP&LNC

GA

AL Power

S & R

National Guard

AL

Time Slice 4 to 5

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

LA

NO

FLPower

FP&LNC

GA

AL Power

S & R

National Guard

MS

AL

Time Slice 5: 9/1 to 9/2/2005

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

MS LA

NO

FL

Power

NC

GA

AL Power

S & R

National Guard

AL

Time Slice 5 to 6

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TX

MS LA

NO

FL

Power

GA

AL Power

S & R

National Guard

AL

Time Slice 6: 9/3 to 9/4/2005

ARC

FEMA

Shelter

TXMS

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NO

FL

OutagesGA

AL Power

Urban S & R

National Guard

AL

S & R

Betweeness Centrality

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Time Slice

Ran

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American Red Cross FEMA

Change in Network Centrality Rankings• “American Red Cross” starts in the 200s and moves to the teens• “FEMA” starts in the 20s, moves to the teens, and ends in the 60s

FEMA drops rank and American Red Cross moves up

Crossover where American Red Cross becomes relatively more central than FEMA (Sep 1, 2005)














CP2R: Collaboration for Preparedness,Response & Recovery (NSF)



TobIG Demo

Nicotine Gap

FDA declares nicotine a

drug (13 July 1995)

Period with a Lack of Nicotine Research in Dataset (NVSS)

Papers Per Year in Dataset (NVSS)

Cascade from Mitch Zeller (NVSS)

WoW: Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game

Source: http://www.mmogchart.com/

Rise of WoW

Goals of WoW Community

Teams perform diverse quests within the game environment, typically varying in length from one hour to several days, with the goal of achieving an objective, gaining resources, and increasing experience.

Exploiting, Bonding & Swarming

Exploring Exploiting Mobilizing Bonding SwarmingEmergency Response

Community + + +

WoW Gaming Community + + + Mexican Immigrant

Community + +

PackEdge Communities of Practice + + +

Economic Resilience NGO Community + +

Tobacco Surveillance, Evaluation & Epidemiology

Community + +

Environmental Engineering Community + + +

Contextualizing Goals of WoW

Exploring Exploiting Mobilizing Bonding SwarmingTheories of Self-Interest + --

Theories of Collective Action + + + Theories of Cognition + + + Theories of Balance -- + +

Theories of Exchange + + Theories of Contagion + + Theories of Homophily -- + Theories of Proximity -- + +

Mapping Goals to Theories: WoW Gaming Community

Methods and AnalysisSIENA SIENA -- Simulation Investigation for Empirical Simulation Investigation for Empirical Network AnalysisNetwork Analysis

Statistical estimation of models for longitudinal Statistical estimation of models for longitudinal social networks according to the dynamic, actorsocial networks according to the dynamic, actor--oriented model of Snijders and van oriented model of Snijders and van DuijnDuijn (1997), (1997), Snijders (2001), and Snijders (2005).Snijders (2001), and Snijders (2005).

CoCo--evolution of networks and behavior evolution of networks and behavior methodology presented in Snijders, methodology presented in Snijders, SteglichSteglich, and , and SchweinbergerSchweinberger (2005).(2005).

Information Retrieval - Time One

Information Retrieval - Time Two

Information Retrieval -Time Three

Density of Communication Ties Decreases over Time

group 1 2 3 45 6 7

densi t y

0. 180. 200. 220. 240. 260. 280. 300. 320. 340. 360. 380. 400. 420. 440. 460. 480. 500. 520. 54

t i me

1 2 3

Unraveling the “Structural Signatures”

Incentive for creating a WoW link with Incentive for creating a WoW link with someone someone

= = --1.08 (cost of creating a link) 1.08 (cost of creating a link) [Self[Self--interest]interest]+ 0.29 (benefit of reciprocating) + 0.29 (benefit of reciprocating) [Exchange][Exchange]+ 3.07 (benefit for being a friend of a friend)+ 3.07 (benefit for being a friend of a friend)[Balance][Balance]+ 0.04 (benefit of connecting to an expert) + 0.04 (benefit of connecting to an expert) [Cognition][Cognition]

All coefficients significant at 0.05 level

Summary

Theories about the social motivations for creating, maintaining,Theories about the social motivations for creating, maintaining,dissolving and redissolving and re--creating social network ties in multidimensional creating social network ties in multidimensional networksnetworks

Development of cyberinfrastructure/Web 2.0Development of cyberinfrastructure/Web 2.0 provide the technological provide the technological capability to capture relational metadata needed to more effecticapability to capture relational metadata needed to more effectively vely understand (and enable) communities.understand (and enable) communities.

Computational modeling techniques to model network dynamics in Computational modeling techniques to model network dynamics in largelarge--scale multiscale multi--agent systems agent systems

Exponential random graph modeling techniques to empirically valiExponential random graph modeling techniques to empirically validate date the local structural signatures that explain emergent global netthe local structural signatures that explain emergent global network work propertiesproperties

Visualization tools and techniques to enable members discover, Visualization tools and techniques to enable members discover, diagnose, and design their networks.diagnose, and design their networks.

SONIC Research Team Members

Steven HarperPostdoctoral Research Associate

NCSA, UIUC

Hank GreenResearch Scientist

NCSA, UIUC

Chunke Su Graduate Research Assistant

Speech Communication, UIUC

Andy DonResearch Programmer

NCSA, UIUC

Annie Wang Graduate Research Assistant


Mengxiao Zhu Graduate Research Assistant


Nat BulkleyPostdoctoral Research Associate

NCSA, UIUC

York YaoResearch Programmer

NCSA, UIUC

Diana Jimeno-IngrumGraduate Research AssistantLabor & Industrial Relations,

UIUC

Acknowledgements

http://www.cancer.gov/

http://www.americanlegacy.org/americanlegacy/skins/alf/home.aspx

http://www.nsf.gov/index.jsp

http://www.cdc.gov/page.do

http://www.pg.com/en_US/index.jhtml

http://www.vodafone.com/home/0,3044,CATEGORY_ID%253D0%2526LANGUAGE_ID%253D0%2526CONTENT_ID%253D0,00.html

from disasters to wow: enabling knowledge networks in 21st ...€¦ · p*/exponential random graph...

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